Yesterday, I went over the top 10 for 2017 fantasy baseball. Today, I throw out preconceived notions, drink some potions and lather up my body with lotions as I sloppily slip and slide my way through the most precarious top 20 for fantasy baseball I’ve ever encountered. This top twenty is a blind man playing Twister. Half the time, I’m grabbing for things not knowing if they’re there or not. I legit think this top 20 could go countless other ways. Is countless a widowed Countess? No, it’s not, it’s a confusing AF top 20 for fantasy baseball. One bright spot (or sour note if you disagree with me), I finally convinced myself that since I never draft a starter in the top 20, I’m not ranking one here. If you want to bemoan my (lack of) ranking Kershaw, Scherzer or any pitcher, then bemoan away. Just remember, a bemoaner sounds a bit to me like “U be a boner.” All the positional rankings will live under the 2017 fantasy baseball rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2017 fantasy baseball:
11. Miguel Cabrera – This tier started in the top 10 for 2017 fantasy baseball. I called this tier, “Easy like Monday morning quarterbacking.” This tier ends here. Member when Miggy was a first round no-doubter? He’d hit 35 homers and .320 and all was good. Yeah, I don’t know if anything’s changed that much with him. Do guys often approach 500 career homers and still hit like first rounders? Not to answer, but to ruminate. Ted Williams did, Bonds didMiggy is special, not like the cousin your mom made you hang out with when you were a kid, but special like that same cousin who is now a millionaire. Miggy is Donaldson with five to six less steals, but a much higher batting average. I’m not sure Miggy isn’t a top ten pick either, and I might be falling into groupthink with this ranking. I guess there’s a 25% chance Miggy repeats 2014 and hits only 25 HRs but still .313. More than likely, you’re going to get 30 HR, .320 and the counting stats that go with that. 2017 Projections: 95/29/105/.317/1 in 577 ABs
12. Trea Turner – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Odor. I call this tier, “Hate to go upside this early, but I also hate showering and I do that.” By the tier name I mean, these guys feel a bit riskier and upsidey (totally a word!) for this early, but, from what they’ve done already in the majors and their ability, I think you have to take them here. Uh-oh, it’s Computer Modulated Man, “Trea Turner in the top 20?! El oh what the eff. Does not compute. Must shut down rankings and reboot. Too much electricity going to mainframe. Unplug me. Unplug me. I must be unplugged. Oh, no, it is too late. Trea Turner ranked in the top 20 was too much. Signing off. Good….bye. Beep boop booooop.” In 73 games last year, Turner had 13 HRs and stole 33 bases with a .342 average (19 HRs, 58 SBs if you combine Triple-A and majors). Granted, he had only 15 HRs in his minor league career, so his HR/FB% may not be 16.7 as it was last year, maybe closer to 9%. His BABIP was .388, and that might be closer to .345. The steals? They’re for reals. So, he hits 16 homers and .305 instead. 16 HRs, 40 SBs and .305? You know who that sounds like? It rhymes with Saltuve and he reminds me of someone who stands on the front seat of a driver’s seat to see over the dash. I know there’s risk with Turner, but if you don’t think there’s risk with Donaldson, Miggy, Odor, Blackmon or some other white men hiding behind an affirmative action last name, you’re lying to yourself. So, my question to you is why not lie to yourself about something more worthwhile like, “Hey, guess what, Self, you’re handsome and just won a Nobel Prize!” 2017 Projections: 102/16/84/.305/40 in 577 ABs
13. Carlos Correa – I almost made a top 9 yesterday, then one giant tier, an eleven-way tie between 10th and 20th, clapped my hands together like I was over it and took a siesta. In the end, I thought that was a cop out. I struggled to turn the corner on the top ten, and you see there’s a bunch of guys I think are virtually the same as Correa because they’re in the same tier, and, to go a step further towards the cop out without copping out completely, I think this entire post is close. If someone took Miggy at 14 and Correa at 11, it wouldn’t shock me. If someone went Odor at 10 and Trea Turner at 14 and Donaldson at 11 and Story at 19 and–okay, you get the picture. This top 20 is so flexible it teaches Pilates on a balancing beam while saying, “We can go wherever you want for dinner, I’m pliable.” Correa just did too much to move my needle to not squeeze him in here, and, when I say needle, I’m not talking crochet. Correa averaged 404 feet per homer last year. Machado hit 37 homers and also averaged 404 feet. Correa only had 7 Just Enough homers; Betts hit 15. Correa had a down year last year and still hit 20 HRs and stole 13 bags with a .274 average, at the age of 21. Correa also had injuries. At one point, he didn’t attempt a steal for a month due to a sprained ankle. He had 14 steals in only 99 games in 2015, and 13 steals in 153 games last year. You’re telling me that sprained ankle didn’t play into it? You’re not telling me that, because if you are, I have a pfft with your name on it. He hit 22 homers in 2015 in that truncated season, but 20 homers last year. Let’s see, he only hit one home run in September, his worst power month. Any specific reason? He hurt his shoulder. He doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls, but neither does Au Shizz. Steamer has Correa down for 23 HRs and 14 SBs in a full season of ABs. I’m gonna go out on a very sturdy limb and say, he’d have to get hurt again to only get 23 HRs and 14 SBs. That feels like the absolute baseline, though with Correa maybe that should be called the Military Demarcation Line. 2017 Projections: 98/26/104/.275/20 in 575 ABs
14. Rougned Odor – Last year, Odor struck out 21.4% of the time and walked only 3%, which reminds me of Rizzo and Bryant. The foul Odor of a rising K-rate that levels off the next year to a more palpable one. In Triple-A, Odor walked 9% and struck out only 8.1%. Don’t know if the numbers will get that glorious in 2017, but, even if they don’t, with his less than ideal Ks last year, he still had 33 HRs, 14 SBs and hit .271. Am I saying there’s upside from those numbers? He’s 22 years old, how is there no upside? He had a .297 BABIP, which seems about right for him because of how many fly balls he hits, but if he gets lucky, a .320 BABIP and .290 average don’t seem hard to talk myself into since Odor does have speed. His speed, in fact, is on par with that of 30-steal guys. In early draft results I’ve seen, I’m on an island with Odor — why didn’t I pack extra Ban Roll-On?! — he’s either ranked much later in the top 20, or not at all. That’s got me puzzled, because, even Steamer, who is conservative, has him down for 26 HRs, 13 SBs, .275 in only 559 ABs, after he had 605 ABs last year. There’s no way Odor is slotted anywhere but the top four in the Rangers’ lineup, and should easily pass the 580 AB-threshold. 30/15/.280 with solid counting stats and upside is suddenly not worth a top 20 pick? Are you sure about that, rest of the universe? 2017 Projections: 92/28/98/.281/15 in 581 ABs
15. Freddie Freeman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Blackmon. I call this tier, “From the window, to the wall, here’s the ceiling, here’s the floor.” By the tier name I mean, I think we know what we’re getting from these guys floor-wise. I also think the ceiling is pretty obvious. I don’t necessarily think there’s going to be a huge breakthrough on the ceiling, but the floor looks sturdy too. This is likely the safest tier in this post, and not just perceived safest. These guys have some youth, they have shown ability and they don’t possess huge caveats. (By the way, by floor, I mean what’s the worst you’re going to get from a guy. I think that term is fairly mainstream, but I want to make sure everyone knows what I mean. Potatoes to chips, SAGNOF, Saberhagenmetrics, Kazaam!, as you can see, I often care if people follow what I mean.) As for Freeman, he’s in his prime and appears to be a rich man’s Votto. I will call him Blotto on Cristal. 2017 Projections: 93/31/97/.295/6 in 575 ABs
16. George Springer – I have hopes and dreams, and they include clean water and basic human rights for everyone and George Springer having a 40/20 season and being the best player in baseball. Those hopes and dreams are in no particular order, by the way. Definitely not that order if I draft Springer this year. If Springer is going to put it all together, this will be the season, so I’m excited to see if my prayers are answered. *Intern whispers in my ear* “What about the drinking water and human rights prayers?” Can we focus on Springer first, please?! 2017 Projections: 103/32/88/.255/10 in 590 ABs
17. Charlie Blackmon – Okay, there’s one caveat in this tier. If Blackmon gets traded, then all bets are off, and I don’t mean the Red Sox have a travel day. I don’t think you should avoid drafting a player in March because he might be traded in July. A) He could be traded to a great team and have a solid two months in a pennant chase. B) He may not be traded. C) There’s no C. Last year, Blackmon had his biggest power year by far with 29 homers. Blackmon with power, sounds like an unreleased Public Enemy joint. His speed went way down though from 43 steals to 17. A Blackmon without speed has The Ghost of Jimmy the Greek confused. Blackmon does have one thing, of Coors. You will never find a Rockies leadoff man with 25-steal speed and 20-homer power that is not worth a 2nd round pick. Hopefully, Blackmon and Freeman in the same tier does better than Birth of a Nation during award season. (By the by, Moonlight was the best film of last year, and might’ve been the best film of the last few years.) 2017 Projections: 104/21/67/.303/24 in 594 ABs
18. Starling Marte – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the top 20. I call this tier, “GiancarlNOOOOOOOOOO” By the tier name I mean, I looked at everyone to be in this top twenty, and these last few felt the best. No Giancarlo, or as I scream every time he’s hurt GiancarlNOOOOOOOOOO, no Just Dong Martinez, no pitchers (!), no Lindor, no Seager, Corey or Kyle, no Pollock, A.J. or Tulo, and no way this is the final say on all top 20s. There’s a ten way tie between five guys all at number 21 (my math might be off there). There’s nothing I can do (except go on to rank every player in the coming days who will get at least 200 at-bats). There just wasn’t room for everyone. As for Marte, I’ll be honest, I could see him ranked anywhere from top 15 to top 40. Just depends on how you look at him. He’s a 10-homer, 40-steal, .275 hitter. It’s great, but Shane Victorino was never a top 20 player. Or Marte has 20 homer power and 45 steals that will hit .310 again. Yeah, I need to take my chances there and go Marte is the latter. *sees Altuve climbing on Marte’s back* Latter, man, not ladder! 2017 Projections: 81/17/88/.295/37 in 549 ABs
19. Edwin Encarnacion – Here’s what I said when he signed with the Indians, “I think there’s a fairly evident reason it took Edwin Encarnacion a while to sign with a team. Doode’s a leather-bound book with dust. Please, Grey, leave this metaphor alone! You’re prolly right, Random Italicized Voice. Edwin’s ground ball ratio went up and his fly balls went down. He still hits the ball hard, and, if he were 27 years old, none of his red flags would even be flags, they’d be red handkerchiefs for my white suit when I’m feeling especially Scarfacey. His Ks went up, so he’s a .260 hitter now instead of a .270 hitter? Big whoop. I’m having a hard time being negative on Edwin, except he will be 34 years old. Guys do excel in their mid-30s, but not as much as they don’t. Am I excited about Edwin after he signed with the Indians? Not particularly, but thinking he’s going to fall off, is you talking hunches and that only works if you’re making small talk with Quasimodo.” And that’s me quoting me! 2017 Projections: 88/36/105/.260/2 in 535 ABs
20. Trevor Story – None of those aforementioned players made the top 20, but then there’s this Story, of a lovely lady, who was bringing up three lovely girls, though lovely feels like a stretch with Jan. Sorry, Jan! Story would’ve been a top 10 guy for this year if he didn’t have a fluke injury last year. To go back to the overriding theme of this post, Story is just as good as the tenth ranked player as he is the 25th ranked. Fluidity is the word of the day. Literally, it’s on my Word of the Day calendar. In only 97 games last year, Story had 67/27/72/.272/8. I’m sorry, he plays a full season, and that’s not a top ten season? What is it that you don’t like about him? His Ks? Has any non-catcher Rockies player hit below .250 since 2005? Well, I’m glad I asked! Clint Barmes (twice), Ian Stewart (once), Ty Wigginton (once), Todd Helton (twice, at ages 38/39), that’s it. Four Rockies had six non-catcher seasons of .250 and below. Know why? Of Coors you do! You can’t hit under .250 in Coors. I don’t mean the collective you. I mean, you you. You, out of shape, goofsloth, who thinks sweatpants are formalwear, would hit over .250 in Coors. So, what else is the problem with Story? Oh, wait, there’s no other problem. Story’s so butter I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter sees Story and gets jealous. Story is so butter, he lies on top of a mountain of popcorn and someone sees him and says, “Ooh, hot buttered popcorn.” Story’s so butter, Sandoval can’t even look at him without risking weight gain. 2017 Projections: 89/31/98/.258/12 in 575 ABs
