“Wahhhhhh, Shane Greene doesn’t strike anyone out, he’s useless, wahhhhhh!”  That’s Sky on the Podcast a few hours ago…  “The Fifth Element sucked!”  That’s Grey before I socked him!

Since my initial ranks in February, I’ve been a Greene champion.  In my blurb, I mention a high K-rate finish to 2014 (52:16 K:BB his last 41.1 innings), along with an unlucky 2014 BABIP (.330).  The starts I saw from him last year had me encouraged with his stuff, plus the move to a much better pitcher’s park in Comerica had me “thrilled”.

But even with the rank looking spiffy and everything going right, the low K-rate does seem a little concerning.  He’s turning into Rick Porcello, noooooooo!  While his ERA and WHIP (along with 3 wins) are all change-your-pants worthy, he’s got a measly 11:5 K:BB in 23 innings.  Regression is screaming like Ruby Rhod after he counted ten!  I of course hope not since he’s on all my teams, and watching him so far this year in my normal bouncing-around-through-all-the-games he looks like a strong strikeout capable guy.  So I decided to watch his start yesterday hosting the White Sox, and give it the ol’ full attention and Pitcher Profile treatment.  Here’s how he looked:

First Inning: Fresh off two fantastic outings, Greene starts Adam Eaton with a fastball way outside for ball one.  The wind is really whisping around, as you can see in everyone’s uniforms.  Another fastball is outside, and man, Greene kinda does look like Rick Porcello out there!  Skinny, fairly tall and with similar mechanics.  Fastball again, this time at 92 MPH is inside, and it’s a quick 3-0 count.  Greene fits a fastball in there, 91 MPH on the inside edge makes it full, fastball is fouled off, then 92 MPH almost perfectly on the inside black is taken, but it’s ball four.  Very very close, but Greene dug himself that hole.  After only 2 walks his first 2 starts, leadoff walk in this one and up is Melky Cabrera who takes a fastball outside.  Ruh roh.  Change-up flutters outside, and now back-to-back 2-0 counts.  91 MPH fastball is grooved in there, change-up inside is ripped foul, then a fastball is popped up, but it has some good carry in that wind and is caught in fairly deep left center.  Wind is certainly a factor today.  Fastball at 92 MPH barely sinks low to the dangerous Jose Abreu, and Abreu has to call time with the wind kicking up some dirt in his face.  Crazy.  Then whew-ie!  There’s that cutter/slider/whatever at 86 with great tight movement getting Abreu to flinch making it 1-1:

Greene-Slider-1

First of those we’ve seen, and that’s the money maker right there.  Fastball is rolled over foul, another 92 MPH heater gets on Abreu’s hands and is slashed foul, then a hanging change-up is flared to right, and J.D. Martinez catches it on the run and throws to first with nobody home for a double play.  No idea what Eaton was thinking about there, that wasn’t even too hard a catch!  Maybe the wind kept the ball lofted more than he thought, I don’t know…  Either way, inning is over, and after some control issues early, Greene is out of it.

Second Inning: Greene picks up a grand slam worth of support, and opens the second with a fastball hitting the outside corner on Adam LaRoche, 0-1.  Jose Quintana threw a whopping 42 pitches in the bottom of the first, so Greene’s been sitting a while.  Change-up is outside, then a fastball on the outside corner is shot to left for a leadoff single.  Not a terrible pitch there, but was pretty hittable.  Back-to-back innings with the leadoff man on, and Avisail Garcia fouls off a fastball, 0-1.  Fastball again fouled down the third base line, slider is hug a bit in the middle of the zone but Garcia is late on it and fouls it off, then an even slower slider is rolled over it first, and Miguel Cabrera steps on the bag and gets the throw to second in time to tag out Laroche for the double play.  Nice fielding there, but a great pitch to induce the weak groundout.  First pitch to Conor Gillaspie is bunted foul third base side as he was hoping to beat the shift, but it’s 0-1.  Fastball outside, then a great change-up on the outer half is rolled over to first weakly as well for another easy groundout, inning over.

Third Inning: Up 5-0 now, Greene starts Alexei Ramirez with a beautiful sinking fastball at 92 MPH, 0-1.  Then Greene works the top edge of the zone with a two-seamer, and Alexei tops it for an easy groundout.  Greene looking a lot more locked in now, helps to have that Tigers offense on your side!  Again pounding the zone with the fastball at 92, 0-1 to Tyler Flowers, slider is outside, then a ridiculous 92 MPH two-seamer zips into the outside corner, 1-2:

Greene-TwoSeam

Along with that slider/cutter, that’s some crazy movement left and right.  And he goes right to that slider, but it’s a tad high and outside, fastball at 93 MPH is on the hands but fouled back, 93 again is just outside, full count.  And he sticks with the cutter at 86 MPH that gets Flowers way in front for an infield popup.  Great mix of speeds, hitting 93 twice and Flowers was expecting gas again.  First pitch to Micah Johnson is a fastball on the outside edge that he slaps to left for a single.  Lefties might be able to hit those easy fastballs.  Back to the top and Eaton takes ball one, slider is in there, two-seamer almost gets the inside edge on him 2-1, 92 MPH four-seamer is slashed foul, 2-2.  Greene takes a few checks on Johnson, then a hanging slider is high and Johnson steals second.  But it doesn’t hurt him as a fastball on the outside corner is grounded to second, inning over.

Fourth Inning: The onslaught continues with the Tigers now up 7-0, and Greene gets a fastball in there to Melky, 0-1.  But another fastball is popped up to center and it drops quickly for a bloop single.  Lucky hit there, but as soon as it happens it’s erased with a first-pitch tailor-made groundball from Jose Abreu to get two outs.  Nice two-seam action for the double play  LaRoche takes strike one, then another cutter/slider moves just enough to hit the outside edge at 86 MPH, 0-2:

Greene-Slider2

Then right after that beaut, Greene climbs the ladder with 93 MPH cheese and LaRoche swings right through it:

Greene-4Seam

That sequence right there is why I think some Ks will start flooding in, given it’s only his first strikeout on the day.

Fifth Inning: With his 50th pitch to open the inning, Garcia hacks at a slider that moved off the edge, then he fouls off another one a little lower to get Greene quickly ahead 0-2.  Greene tries that high fastball again but it’s taken, fastball on the hands is fouled off, then he goes legit slider at 78 – that one looks like more of your standard slider – and it’s swung through and missed for back-to-back Ks.  And now just unloading the full arsenal with a perfect first-pitch change-up to Gillaspie for strike one, fastball at 92 is fouled off – 40 strikes to 16 balls right now, and that includes a leadoff walk to start the game!  0-2 is a slider on the inside edge and it’s grounded out weakly to second, two outs.  That same two seamer as the GIF above gets strike one on Alexei, slider breaks just off the outside, then a massive slider goes straight down at 87 MPH for a whiff, 1-2.  Man, the variants of the slider/cutter go from 78-87!  Perfect low and outside fastball at 93 is barely tipped foul, slider goes in the dirt, slider again breaks outside, and the payoff pitch is another slider that is too far outside for a walk.  Well, as soon as I got all giddy he threw three straight balls…  And keeping with the theme of the outing, the small mistake is very quickly erased with a first-pitch two-seamer hit to short by Flowers to end the inning on another groundout.

Sixth Inning: Sheesh, now up 9-0, Greene can cruise into a W and starts the 6th with a fastball in there to Micah, change-up flutters outside, same pitch fades well off the plate, two-seamer is slashed foul, then a hanging slider or change-up that stayed high in the zone is cut through and missed, 3rd K on the day gets the first out.  But that wasn’t a quality K…  First pitch to Eaton is a slider at 83 and he pops it up foul on the third base side for the second out.  Mowing em down!  Greene tries what I think is his first curveball on the day and it’s way outside, fastball is in there to Melky, slider outside, then a 92 MPH fastball on the outside edge is hit up the middle for a single.  Ya know, all 4 hits to this point have been lefties hitting fastballs on the outside half…  Interesting…  Anyway, great slider is in there for strike one on Abreu at 85 MPH, slider again is outside, high two-seamer is fouled back, 1-2 slider is in the dirt, then Abreu fouls a two-seamer breaking into the hands off his thigh, and it remains a painful 2-2.  Abreu walks it off and Greene gives him no breaks with another two-seamer and Abreu fouls it off his foot.  Damn, Abreu is gonna be sore…  Fastball again is hit foul first base side, then a 92 MPH four-seamer on the outside edge is hit well to right, and J.D. Martinez alligator-arms it and and just whiffs catching it and it rolls to the wall.  Man, where’s the effort?!  I guess up 9-0, J.D. was like, “naw, not going all out for this one.”  It’s scored a triple for Abreu and Melky scores, breaking Shane Greene’s 0 ER streak (21.2 IP) to start the year.  But that should really be a single and an error, J.D. at least should’ve played the hop instead of nonchalantly going for it and reaching out.  CAN YOU SENSE THE FRUSTRATION?!  Anyway, fastball low is sliced foul by LaRoche, slider breaks low, change-up floats outside, then a good sinking fastball is rolled over to second for an easy groundout to end the inning.  Lame, lame, lame ER on the board…

Seventh Inning: At 87 pitches, Greene comes out for likely his final inning and throws a slow slider at 76 MPH to get strike one on Garcia.  That’s now a 76-87 MPH range on his sliders/cutters, pretty cool to see.  Slider is low, then a nasty two-seamer buries into the low and inside corner for a whiff, 1-2.  Greene misses low, slider off the outside edge is tapped foul, fastball on the hands almost ties Avisail up, but he’s able to check it, 3-2.  Then fastball is too high and tight for a walk.  Blah.  And the first pitch to Gillaspie is a high fastball that’s hit weakly to second and gets an easy double play.  Gillaspie definitely dropped a loud expletive when he hit that one!  That double-play just had the Tigers broadcasters comparing Greene to Porcello as well…  Me no likey!  Two down, and an 82 MPH change-up goes low, 1-0.  Hasn’t found that pitch today.  Two-seamer goes too inside on Alexei, fastball is high, 3-0.  A little fatigued.  Two-seamer zips in there, but again a two-seamer breaks too far iniside for Greene’s 4th walk.  Don’t like seeing that.  Cutter at 88 MPH barely misses outside to Flowers, but that two-seamer has been working and breaks on Flowers’ hands for yet another easy groundout to end the inning.  And that will end Greene’s outing in a perfect microcosm inning – any time he had the slightest bit of trouble, he was able to induce an easy groundball.

Final Line:  W  7.0 IP  102 Pitches (65 Strikes)  1 ER  5 Hits  4 Walks  3 K  Gamescore: 62  Gamescore+: 61.8

Final Analysis: Hah, well a little interesting that the first two Pitcher Profiles this season had pitchers get game scores of 62…  Not surprisingly, Carlos Martinez outperformed Greene in the Gamescore+ calculation due to the higher strikeouts.  That said, Gamescore+ scores usually are much lower than the true Gamescore in low-K outings, and Greene kept pace.  The reason?  Tons of weakly hit outs, and all of his hits given up were singles.  Well Abreu got a triple, but it was due to garbage outfield play.  Greene didn’t get hit hard at all the entire afternoon.

Greene starts it off with a four-seam/two-seam mix that topped out at 93 MPH like that high heat K to LaRoche.  The two-seamer had great run on it that he could use on both sides of the plate.  But the bread and butter is the slider and the variants.  When it was at 85-87 it looked more like a cutter, but he could throw them slower all the way to the 77-78 range for a little more break.  Fangraphs indeed has them broken down as separate pitches – cutter vs. slider – but they were similar enough in break that I didn’t differentiate above.  The only pitch that was a disappointment to me in this start was the change-up.  It was floated out there he was developing the pitch in Spring, and through three starts he’s used it 12% of the time.  In this one, it had ridiculous movement almost like a power knuckleball, yet lacking control.  If he can find that pitch and get it a little closer to the zone, he’s going to be even harder to hit.

Nothing I saw Sunday afternoon has deterred me on my Greene love.  I know the low strikeouts might be concerning, but he struck out 9.27 per 9 last year with it at 4.30 this year.  There’s going to be a happy medium.  While he’s faced some garbage offenses, MIN, PIT and CWS rank 16, 11, and 28th in team strikeouts thus far on the young season.  It’s not that telling of a stat, but enough of a reason not to panic at the anemic rate.  I think he’s going to be more a 7-7.5 K/9 guy, and if he maintains his control and the ability to induce groundballs, a fantastic ERA and WHIP to follow.  He’s been too good not to be a must-own already – I might not try to buy him in trades, the sell-high value makes it uneconomical, but I’m all-in.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, Team
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Chris Sale, CWS
3 Felix Hernandez, SEA
4 Max Scherzer, WAS
5 Corey Kluber, CLE
6 David Price, DET
7 Madison Bumgarner, SF
8 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
9 Matt Harvey, NYM
10 Johnny Cueto, CIN
11 Jake Arrieta, CHC
12 Zack Greinke, LAD
13 Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
14 Cole Hamels, PHI
15 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
16 Garrett Richards, LAA
17 Gerrit Cole, PIT
18 Jeff Samardzija, CWS
19 Alex Wood, ATL
20 Jacob deGrom, NYM
21 Collin McHugh, HOU
22 Julio Teheran, ATL
23 Tyson Ross, SD
24 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
25 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
26 Adam Wainwright, STL
27 Yordano Ventura, KC
28 Sonny Gray, OAK
29 James Shields, SD
30 Jon Lester, CHC
31 Scott Kazmir, OAK
32 Michael Pineda, NYY
33 Alex Cobb, TB
34 Chris Archer, TB
35 Shane Greene, DET
36 James Paxton, SEA
37 Brandon McCarthy, LAD
38 Phil Hughes, MIN
39 Lance Lynn, STL
40 Matt Shoemaker, LAA
41 Anibal Sanchez, DET
42 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
43 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
44 Jake Odorizzi, TB
45 Homer Bailey, CIN
46 Danny Salazar, CLE
47 Michael Wacha, STL
48 Francisco Liriano, PIT
49 Drew Smyly, TB
50 Carlos Martinez, STL
51 Trevor Bauer, CLE
52 Doug Fister, WAS
53 Mike Fiers, MIL
54 Andrew Cashner, SD
55 Jered Weaver, LAA
56 Archie Bradley, ARI
57 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
58 Jason Hammel, CHC
59 Jose Quintana, CWS
60 J.A. Happ, SEA
61 Mike Leake, CIN
62 Drew Hutchison, TOR
63 Drew Pomeranz, OAK
64 Mat Latos, MIA
65 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
66 Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
67 Kyle Lohse, MIL
68 Chase Anderson, ARI
69 A.J. Burnett, PIT
70 Ian Kennedy, SD
71 Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD
72 Edinson Volquez, KC
73 Wily Peralta, MIL
74 Chris Tillman, BAL
75 Jesse Hahn, OAK
76 Jake Peavy, SF
77 Mike Minor, ATL
78 Jose Fernandez, MIA
79 CC Sabathia, NYY
80 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
81 Shelby Miller, ATL
82 Danny Duffy, KC
83 John Lackey, STL
84 Daniel Norris, TOR
85 Justin Verlander, DET
86 Tim Hudson, SF
87 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
88 R.A. Dickey, TOR
89 Matt Garza, MIL
90 Taijuan Walker, SEA
91 Rick Porcello, BOS
92 Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
93 Kyle Gibson, MIN
94 Jon Niese, NYM
95 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
96 Carlos Rodon, CWS
97 Kevin Gausman, BAL
98 Aaron Harang, PHI
99 Chris Heston, SF
100 Brandon Morrow, SD

Dropped Out: Tom Koehler, MIA (meh), Zach McAllister, CLE (bullpen), Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (meh), Clay Buchholz, BOS (just so hard to suffer through the bad games), Kendall Graveman, OAK (might be able to get it back together tonight)

  • Well, McHugh sure alleviated any concerns I had!  11 Ks to 0 BB in 5.2 innings against the usually patient A’s.  Mighty encouraging, but it’s not like I dropped him 10 spots or anything, just a teensy bit of jostling amongst the 20s.
  • Jon Lester and that base stealing issue…  More like Lester and that not being very good issue!  Yikes I over-ranked him coming into the year, dead arm issues at the end of Spring and base runners bothering him…  No bueno.
  • I know, I know.  Here comes all the Paxton stuff…  Unfortunately I didn’t watch his game since I was in Shane Greene-land (owned by Denmark!), but that blowup 3rd inning started with an infield single, error, single, infield single, groundout, single, fielder’s choice.  Then a few extra base hits chased him, with the error making most of the runs unearned.  I might go back and watch what happened (Rotoworld claimed his velo was down), but two infield singles and an error?!  Rattled poor Pax’s cage.  No way I’m giving up yet, and don’t forget Paxton didn’t have almost any Spring Training keeping me from being discouraged by a slow start.  And the next two starts are hosting the Twins then at Houston…  However, I have enough insecurity to ease off even though I’m nowhere near dropping him off my teams.
  • Man, Danny Salazar looked goooooood.  Nice velo, good control, he gets a big boost back on the board now that he’s up and up to stay.
  • Another young arm, Archie Bradley has some great numbers and his fastball has ridiculous movement.  Easy to see why he has control problems.  That said, very encouraging start.
  • Starting to buy in on the Anthony DeSclafani bandwagon a little bit.  Might as well take his upside over the glut of meh once you get into the 60s-70s.
  • Carlos Rodon is getting called up today, but to join the bullpen.  Like Gausman, he remains in the ranks for the upside to move into the rotation, even though we don’t know when/if either will make it.
  • Really struggled at the bottom.  I have a few guys just out like Bartolo Colon and Alfredo Simon since they offer little upside (remember these are 12-team ranks, both would be ranked a little higher for consistency if these were deeper-league ranks), and big unknowns like Nick Martinez, who is probably just like them with low Ks.  Once I get about halfway through, I could tinker endlessly with these guys… Most are in the streaming class and worth looking at the next few matchups rather than ROS value.

Am I too Super Greene?!  Or is Grey right to hate The Fifth Element…  I mean, Leeloo Dallas, multi-pass, amiright?!  Shoot your thoughts below, and may your ratios be thinner than Chris Tucker in drag clothes!

204 Comments
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primetime_players
primetime_players
7 years ago

JB, think to re-think my pitching staff here.

Shoemaker – give in 1 more start
Fiers – after todahy’s game, only 4 inn pitched and he’s very hittable. I know he has the Cubs coming up shortly but still a risky play.
Paxton – dropped about 5 minutes ago.. I see nothing so far maybe a 2nd half pitcher
McCarthy – About to drop.. He’s a home run derby pitcher.

Kershaw
Strausburg
Bauer
Santazar

Thinking Chase Anderson is a good pickup. Homer looked a little better but that velocity is not good at 92 mph. Jesse Chavez looks like he’s back in the rotation.. Then Hutchinson, AJ Burnett and Hector Sanitago..

Thoughts? Drop Fiers and McCarhty

Jonas
Jonas
7 years ago

I see that the Brewers are stretching out Thornburg in AAA. When do I add him?

Blint
Blint
7 years ago

JB we need a basketball podcast after that Curry game and next day that Harden game :D

I have Phil Hughes , James Paxton and Drew Hutchison on my WW ! Should I drop Shoemaker or Fiers for one of them?

Blint
Blint
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin:

Rondo top 10 after moving to the Lakers :P

Paxton was taken only Hughes left now which one shud I drop Fiers or Shoemaker? Thanks!

Eric B
Eric B
7 years ago

Tonight was not easy being Greene ughh. Few questions for you… Do you think Paxton rebounds? Rest of the season, Happ , Chase, Norris or Walker (and is that SP worth owning or only streaming)? Best 3 DL stashes out of these players: Jaso, Hardy, Swisher, Parnell, Cain, Parker Billingsley or Moore?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: Here’s my team as a reference:
( 5×5 HTH OBP league)
Bats
C McCann
1B Freeman
2B Kipnis
3B Santana
SS A.Ramirez
OF Stanton
OF Springer
OF Soler
OF Betts
Util Pollock
Util Avisail Garcia
Util Calhoun
Bench Semien
Bench Lawrie
DL C/DH Jaso

Staff
P Kluber
P Odorizzi
P Cole
P Salazar
P Paxton
SP Ventura
SP S.Greene
RP Chapman
RP Britton
Bench RP Perkins
Bench SP McCarthy
Bench SP Walker
DL RP Parnell

I could drop Walker for Happ or Chase Anderson…or I could drop Walker and Lowrie for both Happ and Anderson…thoughts?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: Wherefor art thou JB?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Ha, no worries I look forward to the vid, love me some hoops too…just giving you a hard time.

It’s daily moves; and it looks like McCarthy could need a DL stint. If so I can add Happ without dropping Lawrie and hold onto Walker. Might try to slip Colome into my 3rd DL slot with Jaso and Parnell.

Not looking so good for Parnell with the setback but I think if healthy he would have been the preferred closer… so I’m gonna stash him. Hardy got snatched up, so with McCann as my catcher I like Jaso C/DH as the other DL stash. With Colome as a SP upside play(he’s also DL eligible currently. Thoughts on Colome?

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
7 years ago

JBIZZLE!

drop Shoemaker or McCarthy for Smyly coming off the DL and NO I won’t look at your rankings!

Alex
Alex
7 years ago

Anybody throwing Porcello tonight? I know he got shelled against BAL last start, but something is telling me to roll the dice.

Tom
Tom
7 years ago

JB – best deep league upside stash for 2015 & 2016 in a points league: Ivan Nova, Brandon Beachy or Charlie Morton? Or stop wasting my time on guys who obviously aren’t going to matter & get some sleep?

Bill Lee
Bill Lee
7 years ago

You look like a genius having Happy in your top 60 but I’m still gonna ask: Happ, Chase Anderson,
or Eovaldi?

Thanks much in advance.

Bill Lee
Bill Lee
Reply to  Bill Lee
7 years ago

@Bill Lee: Happ not Happy. Focking autocorrect

Lemmingness
Lemmingness
7 years ago

Eovaldi seems to be the popular add in Grey’s post’s comments section today. Would you pick him up in 10 team pts leagues, over guys like Shoe, Simon, T.Wood?

Prime_Time_Players
Prime_Time_Players
7 years ago

Chase Anderson.. starting to feel him now.. 8K/9 walk rate 2.0.. I hate his ball park. We looking at a late bloomer, could he be like a Colllin McHugh of last year… I’m liking him more then what is on my waivers.. Like Bailey, Colon, Linicum, Simon… Thoughts…And if I am not mistaken you did an article on him…

booya
booya
7 years ago

Which side would you want in a 12 team H2H league?
Strasburg or JZimm, Greene, Liriano

Eric B
Eric B
7 years ago

Ok couldnt reply above because our chain went on too long lol. Thanks for the advice with my team. Not sure if I can get Span for CMart but I’m trying. Would you drop Span for any of these waiver wire pitchers. I feel like I’m a little batter heavy, usually only like to keep 2 bench bats. Including my team again for reference:
( 5×5 HTH OBP league)
Bats
C McCann
1B Freeman
2B Kipnis
3B Santana
SS A.Ramirez
OF Stanton
OF Springer
OF Soler
OF Betts
Util Pollock
Util Avisail Garcia
Util Lawrie
Bench Semien
Bench Calhoun
Bench Span
DL C/DH Jaso

Staff
P Kluber
P Odorizzi
P Cole
P Salazar
P Paxton
SP Ventura
SP S.Greene
RP Chapman
RP Britton
Bench RP Perkins
Bench SP McCarthy
DL RP Parnell

Wire pitchers available that you have in your rankings are: Haap, Nelson and T.Walker or RP wise I could pick up Yimi Garcia(mainly for K’s no holds in this league). Matt Cain is also on waivers and DL eligible. Do you think he’s worth a stash by dropping Span and then adding an arm from the list above?As always respect and appreciate your opinion!

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: Should be Norris there on wire not Nelson.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Ok so after Happs start last night I repose the question above to you. I dont really need Span after getting surprised by the Russell for Calhoun and Salazar trade, he’s just kinda sitting on my bench as a 3rd bench bat. Dont think I need more than 2 bench bats. So A)would you drop Span who Ive had no luck trying to trade and B) if the answer is yes, is it for Happ or Walker? Haap has been decent but unspectacular and it was Houston he pitched against last night, Walker has more upside I would think, so essentially for the rest of the season, who’s more roster-able iyo and do you agree with the premise I dont need Span?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Chase Anderson is available too, since I see he’s getting some love here. So drop Span for Haap, Walker or Anderson rest of the season?

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
7 years ago

J-Pax is looking like toast man! Need some help in my 10 teamer, my pitching has been wretched (Anibal, Latos, Paxton *barfs*). Any potential breakou arms that could be available in 10 teamers (deep benches)? Im thinking Heston as one possibly, could he stick around all year?

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
Reply to  Swfcdan
7 years ago

@Swfcdan: Oh and you buying (Chicken) Alfredo Simon at all?

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
Reply to  Swfcdan
7 years ago

@Swfcdan: Hammel’s avialable, you still a fan?

los locos
los locos
7 years ago

JB, so drop Fiers? He doesn’t look like last year pitcher he looks like 2013 version. He may be every other year type of pitcher.

Norris from Balt looks awful, any chance Gausman gets in the rotation.. Not like he’s any better but has upside.

Not much on waivers for Fiers, We have Colon, Simon Timmy Jims, Hutchinson, Bailey and Mr CC who looks a lot better then last season and better then Mike Fiers.

Btdrnks
Btdrnks
7 years ago

Sitting on Harper, Dickerson, Brantley, Braun, Garcia and Souza in a 12-team H2H Points Keeper league. Can I flip one of these bats for a pitcher? Would Salazar be too low of a target for a Brantley? Or should I be looking for a wood or degrom type?

los locos
los locos
7 years ago

My pitching is loaded and every week one of them inflate my ERA WHIP.. If it ain’t a starter, its a closer…

Cishek, Kershaw, Strausburg Fiers Week 1
Paxton Hutchinson Week 2 (dropped Ciskek, week 3 no save yet) (Hutchinson dropped, no command)
Shoemaker Week 3.. Shoemaker and Fiers on a short leash, very short..

I had McHugh last year and decided to keep Shoemaker.. UGH. I had the chance to take Votto with my 1rd 10th pick and I choose Prince. Not good. Not good. Team is sputtering along here…

Brantley (back); Hanley (cold); Nolan (wrist)

Bauer on my bench last 3 weeks, best pitcher thus far and I can’t trust him…

Kershaw
Strausburg
Shoemaker
Paxton
McCarthy

Fiers
Bauer
Salazar

A Miller RP
Ottovino RP

john
john
7 years ago

travis wood didn’t make the list huh… need a 5th Sp was thinking either T Wood, DeSclafani or Haun?

Gio
Gio
7 years ago

Keeler league, would you rather acquire c. Rondon or Salazar?

GleamTeam_Matt
GleamTeam_Matt
7 years ago

In a league where I just lost D’Arnaud, a guy wants to give me Gattis and Polanco for Gerrit Cole

My other SP are Kershaw, DeGrom, Heston, and Fiers

Some notable waiver wire SPs available are: Shelby Miller, James Paxton, Matt Shoemaker, Pomeranz, Jimmy Nelson

Should I jump the gun? (It’s a 12-team, 7×7 league w/ added categories: H/BB and QS/HLD)

David Brys
David Brys
7 years ago

If fiers shits the bed today drop him for happ?

Thomas Mancini
Thomas Mancini
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Some pretty bad shit out there tonight

Youth Movement
Youth Movement
7 years ago

Welcome to the Desclafani train. I get that it was against less than good competition, and he’s only he’s under 7 k/9, but pitching to contacting seems to be working. His groundball rate is sustainable at 45% and if he can keep the gofer ball rate at 4, why not? I mean at least his K-rate is better than Greenes. Love the podcast by the way, especially how you guys sprinkle a little baseball in with the witty banter. The triumvirate this week was extra entertaining.

dninja82
dninja82
7 years ago

Got offered rizzo and souza for my bautista and russell. 20 teams keep 15. 5×5 h2h. Matt Adams and CJ cron are my 1b so somewhat of a need. My SS is andrus so it seems like I need a better alternative long term. What do you think?
Thanks

ivebeenupthreedaysstraight
ivebeenupthreedaysstraight
7 years ago

wait… haven’t even read the post yet, but grey hates the fifth element? that movie is like top-three space action movies of all time. do i need to start devoting more of my time to fangraphs?

slimbo
slimbo
7 years ago

What’s up

So I need to take Russell off the na list and take homer bailey off the ir. Who is most droppable? Shoemaker, Pineda, Mccarthy, duda or travis? I could always just drop homer and then just cut one of the above guys?

Franky G.
Franky G.
7 years ago

pick two devon travis, kolten wong, addison russell

Allen
Allen
Reply to  Franky G.
7 years ago

@Franky G.:
Wong, Russell

Josh
Josh
7 years ago

Shoemaker was dropped after his bad start in my 12 teamer 5×5. What do I do? My staff looks like this:

Stras
Kluber
Anibal Sanchez
Odorizzi
McCarthy
Nelson
Hughes
Smyly
Paxton
Uehara
Ottavino
Grilli
McGee (DL)

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
7 years ago

I mean Fifth Element basically made Gary Old’s career! #legend

Allen
Allen
7 years ago

Would you take Samardzija and Belt for (my) Tanaka and Michael Taylor. 20 team H2H (8 player keeper) 4 OF, 1 UTIL spots. Scoring cats – AVG, R, SB, BB, HR, RBI, TB / ERA, WHIP, SV, HD, K, W, QS. Belt would just slot into my UTIL spot. My current OF are L. Martin, Pagan, Marisnick, Span, rotate Pillar and Cron (only has 1B eligibility) at my UTIL spot.

Allen
Allen
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin:

True. What kind of upside am I losing in Taylor though? I could possibly send him a message and see if he wants someone different.

Eric B
Eric B
7 years ago

Hey JB, thanks for the updated rankings, couple of questions for ya. New found love for Wainwright, I see you moved him up lol? I still own Norris and Walker, time to cut both or hold on? Also I know Haap was one of your sleepers(he;s still on waivers) still believe in him or have we seen the best we’re going to see? Mccarthy finally looked good and I also own Paxton but he’s gonna be better than this…right lol?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thanks as always I was curious about waino, has looked decent despite not a ton of K’s. Guy just tried to offer me Puig and Waino for Stanton…am I crazy to say no?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: Or he will give me Carlos Gonzalez, Altuve and Waino for Stanton and Kipnis. Or Puig and Waino for Stanton alone> Either or neither lol?

CMUTimmah
CMUTimmah
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: Cargo, Altuve, Waino would be a good deal if you’re struggling with pitching and steals and don’t need Stanton’s power…

3 players for one essentially…

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Or he will give me Carlos Gonzalez, Altuve and Waino for Stanton and Kipnis. Or Puig and Waino for Stanton alone. Either or neither lol?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Decent staff but not great:
( 5×5 HTH OBP league)
Bats
C McCann
1B Freeman
2B Kipnis
3B Santana
SS A.Ramirez
OF Stanton
OF Springer
OF Soler
OF Betts
Util Pollock
Util Avisail Garcia
Util Lawrie
Bench Semien
Bench Addison Russell
Bench Span
DL C/DH Jaso

Staff
P Kluber
P Odorizzi
P Cole
P Walker
P Paxton
SP Ventura
SP S.Greene
RP Chapman
RP Britton
Bench RP Perkins
Bench SP McCarthy
DL RP Parnell

Just got another offer of Addison Russel for Calhoun and Salazar…like that one better? Or hold and strem the Walker spot?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Pulled the trigger on that one, too good to be true right lol? Dropped Walker to make room and of course he’s pitching better tonight hopefully Salazar pitches better. Based on that roster, adding Calhoun and Salazar in place of Russell and Walker do you accept any of the following proposals or hold tight:
1. Puig and Waino for Stanton or
2.Carlos Gomez and J.Nelson for Stanton or
3. Altuve, Wainwright and Puig for Stanton, Kipnis and Span.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Actually that 3rd offer was canceled only 1st two apply.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Yeah it was my favorite too but adding calhoun and Salazar isnt too bad a day imo. Thanks for the feedback JB. Do you like Span? Was thinking of trying to flip him for an arm(someone like Nelson maybe?) I actually toyed with dropping Span instead of Walker but decided against it. You think I’ll regret that decision and do I have enough pitching iyo?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Might could offer Span for CMart too, not sure the other owners like Span as much as I do though. You like either of thosed deals or hold onto Span? Ok thanks in advance, sorry for all the questions.

Gio
Gio
7 years ago

10 team keeper…

Give Bumgarner for arietta and carasco?

ME
ME
7 years ago

5×5 dynasty league.. Kole Calhoun for Phil Hughes. Which side do you take?

nightpandas
nightpandas
7 years ago

JB, keeper league trade QS and k/9

Braun/Cueto/Nelson

vs

Cain Sugar/Strasburg/Keuchel

nightpandas
nightpandas
Reply to  nightpandas
7 years ago

@nightpandas: would you take the Cain side with Rodon instead of Nelson?

sImon
sImon
7 years ago

why Peavy so high ?

Shawn of the Living
Shawn of the Living
7 years ago

Hey JB nice read!

For me, Pax and Taijuan are similar. Bunch of talent, but not ready for the bigs. The hype will die a bit, and I’ll draft them real low next year and get some fantastic value when they breakout. Thats the plan at least! I dropped them in all leagues and no one has picked them up. That includes one RCL too.

One of my more competitive leagues is a K/9 league so Greene’s value dives a bit there. I do like Greene, but I liked Porcello too! Eerie and possibly accurate comparison!

I love the 5th Element!?!? WTF Grey!? Is Grey from New Jersey? That would somewhat explain things. Damn it Grey!

Chris
Chris
7 years ago

10 team H2H Points league where pitching is scarce. It’s scarce because pitching weighs very heavily. Archie Bradley is on waivers and I stand a chance of getting him. The bottom end of my staff is:
Hughes
Fiers
Shoemaker
Nelson
C-Mart
Salazar
Are any of them worth dropping for Bradley? Hughes and Fiers have me skeptical. Your thoughts?

Great write up by the way!

beanbag
beanbag
7 years ago

Appreciate your write up, agree with the commenter above you’re too low on shields (I think everyone in the industry is!). I’m a homer as well since I’ve bought in, but this guys been pretty legit his whole career. His one “knock” is ks and he’s been serviceable in that. Alex wood (who I also own) just had a game with 0 (count them, none) and only 1/2 of a year to justify a top rank. You also took one year of Lester finding k’s from God knows where and had him real high to start the year… I’m obviously cherry picking here, and appreciate not just following the player rater for your ranks (e.g Trevor Bauer would be like 10th) but I think 30 is the lowest hed finish this year. So you’re ranking his floor, which is fine. I don’t propose he be top 15 or 10 but I think he deserves a bump to low 20’s at least. Watch and wait I guess! Thanks for the post.

beanbag
beanbag
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: thats true, wood was pretty servicable all year. i owned lester last year too haha, got his career year and dumped him back to the draft in a keeper.

shields is a boring guy for sure. but boring guys win you your leagues a lot of times.

TarmanGotHim
TarmanGotHim
7 years ago

JB!

Yo!!

Things are picking up. Teams are looking good.

Question:

Why do you have Kechuel and Fister so far apart? I feel that Fister is a bit undervalued. I eased McHugh and Keiuchel for Samardjia and Fister and I feel I won… If Samardjia can turn it around. He looked fresh in his last starts.

I have Greene on 1 of 4 teams and pre season decided to drop him and not snag him in another, SMH. But I feel better because I do own him on one, lol.

And I have a crush on Arrieta. HAHA. He really is a legit SP.

I have Rodon in 1 league. Should I be excited?

Non SP Q: I have an NA spot in a non Keeper and Rodon was taken so I picked up Buxton. Do you think he gets the call full time in June or is Addison the Better stash?

Thank you.

TarmanGotHim
TarmanGotHim
Reply to  TarmanGotHim
7 years ago

@TarmanGotHim: PS: Love your enthusiasm when you answer the fans questions. Kudos. Razzball is really the best!!

TarmanGotHim
TarmanGotHim
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thank you. I think I’m gonna NA Addison. Thanks.

Dorian
Dorian
7 years ago

Even with the low K totals, you know what Greene is rated in my league as? 8th.

JB and gang, thank you as always for finding diamonds in the seas of roughness. I am enjoying each and every one of them.

WalleyWorld
WalleyWorld
7 years ago

Awesome write up. I’m a big fan of Greene, so thanks for this!

Trying to get Salazar in a trade and guy wants a 1b in return. I have rizzo and hosmer at my 1b/util slots. 16 teamer. I also have 1b eligible alvarez who looks to be having a nice turnaround. He wants hosmer straight up for Alvarez and I just can’t do it. I think I would consider a Salazar/odor for Alvarez trade, but even then I’m hesitant. I have middlebrooks backing up 3b slot. Thanks for any advice.

WalleyWorld
WalleyWorld
Reply to  WalleyWorld
7 years ago

dynasty league btw

WalleyWorld
WalleyWorld
Reply to  WalleyWorld
7 years ago

and wow I sure can’t type, he wants hosmer for Salazar straight up.

WalleyWorld
WalleyWorld
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

sprry about the confusion. I have Pedro Alvarez at my 3b slot with middlebrooks backing up. Was thinking about offering Alvarez for odor and Salazar. Is that a fair offer?

Fungazi
Fungazi
7 years ago

Sit Paxton until he has a clean outing?

Fungazi
Fungazi
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: I was hoping you saw his start, as he seemed extremely hittable, it wasn’t really control problems. Maybe he was tipping pitches or is hiding a small injury. Or maybe it was just bad luck.

Andre
Andre
7 years ago

Great write up!

Quick question. I’m in a 7×7 league. Hits, Runs,HR, RBI, Avg, Steals, and Walks. Would you drop Daniel Murphy for Devon Travis for ROS?

Barrett Gilham
Barrett Gilham
7 years ago

In a 12 team hth keeper league with 25 roster spots. Out of your top-100 list Rubby De La Rosa is the highest player available. Would you drop Mark Buehrle for him?

Categories are W, K, ERA, WHIP, K/9, QS, SV+H.

So far I am 0-2 in K, K/9 and QS.

AL KOHOLIC
AL KOHOLIC
7 years ago

Awesome job J.B im not in on the green train mainly because k,s are low so far,but i am all in on Rodon and Salazar

RotoLance
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: I am in agreement with Al on Green and Ks. Now I gotta decide if I want to drop Fiers for Greene or Bauer come FAAB day Friday… Honestly though I don’t need the Ks as I have an elite K club (although it’s H2H so more of something never hurts). It’s also QS and I bet you see Greene as better than both Fiers and Bauer in that category?

los locos
los locos
7 years ago

I see where you rank Fiers, but where do you gage him fantasy wise? The last 2 starts don’t look so good. The strike outs were there on the 1st start, but can’t get out the of the 5th. We are only in week 3 and SON liked him for the week, but I can’t go there yet. I stuck with Paxton in my lineup this week vs. Minn. My pitching is struggling this year.

Guys like Bailey, Burnett and Colon remain on waivers… I feel bad that Timmy Jim is on waivers I feel like I need to own him.

Do you see any moves that I should make?

Week 3 starters:
Clayton Kershaw SP | LAD
Brandon McCarthy SP | LAD
James Paxton SP | SEA
Matt Shoemaker SP | LAA
Stephen Strasburg SP | WAS
Andrew Miller RP | NYY
Adam Ottavino RP | COL

Bench
Trevor Bauer SP | CLE
Mike Fiers SP | MIL
Danny Salazar SP | CLE
Yu Darvish SP | TEX —- DL (someone dropped i have a DL spot)

C
C
7 years ago

Thanks for the great read, JB. I’m in a 12 team roto league that counts Holds, Net Saves, QS in addition to the regular stats. I’m currently in first for holds and middle of the pack for saves. We have five slots for RP – which 5 would you start:

D. O’Day
J. Smith
K. Giles
A. Ottavino
H. Rondon
D. Storen

One other quick question – if you had to sell S. Gray, G. Cole, or J. deGrom (I also have J. Quintana, C. Archer and C. Rodon) to upgrade a bat, which would you try to unload?

Thanks!

HighHeat
HighHeat
7 years ago

CMart or Pineda or Salazar. Need to drop one. Thanks!!

tyler
tyler
7 years ago

Great article JB. I have 5 starters in your top 25, but still feel like my pitching is shaky. Ross and A Wood seem off to me. Anyway, I really need saves and another owner wants my McHugh. Would you deal him for Uehara, A Miller, Otavino, F Rod, C Allen or some combination of 2 of them? Only have Perkins and Grilli. Thanks!

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
7 years ago

I was so excited about 5th that I forgot my question…

With a very full OF (Springer, Marte, CarGo, Joc, Souza fighting for 3 spots). Particularly since this is an OBP league, I’m expecting Joc and Souz to be studs, so I’ve been looking to move CarGo, hopefully after he goes on a tear in COL this week.

Who would you flip CarGo for in a straight 1:1 switch…I’ve been eyeing Samarjasldsldnvnijka, Zimmerman, or a similar ace with a rough start. Am I aiming too high? Maybe a better question is: who’s the worst SP on your rankings that you would trade him for?

Thanks!

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Great. I’m facing off against the Samardzija owner, so hopefully CarGo wallops him and Shark has another meh outing before a hit him with the offer…

Chad
Chad
7 years ago

What overall rankings should I use for a Yahoo 5×5 Roto 12-team league tonight? Most of the links seem to be older, but seeing if I am overlooking a newer version. Thanks guys!

Frank White
Frank White
7 years ago

Wutup JB… Who would you rather trade off, Ortiz or V-Mart??

Frank White
Frank White
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

I need Pitching bad in a pitcher friendly league.. I’m getting Salazar, Brett Anderson and Neil Walker for V Mart and Cobb.. I’m scared V’Mart’s knee is getting worse plus I have Ortiz at first to replace.. You like?

Frank White
Frank White
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

Yeah I got screwed this year and this leagues pitching is 70% of the scoring in this league and I didn’t get the text of draft time so they auto picked all batters till the 9th round and gave me Frigen Hamels and Cobb as my aces!! I had Cobb the past 2 years and he was never really good and he’s on a crapy team.. If I lose V-mart to injury then I get nothing plus with no timetable on Cobb and my record 0-2 I need something going NOW.. V-Mart can end up only doing DH and pinch hit on NL fields. You feel me..?? Lol

Scott
Scott
7 years ago

BTW, Grey is outta his mind if he hates the Fifth Element.

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: hahaha

Hood
Hood
7 years ago

I have The Fifth Element on DVD. Not Blueray or HD DVD. Just DVD.

It’s a classic and it should be loved.

Trade Altuve and C. Blackmon for Stanton and Lance Lynn?

I say YES (I’d get the latter) since I can plug in Betts at 2B and have Jones/Upton/Stanton in my OF.

val
val
7 years ago

Wacha at #47? Really?

val
val
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Homer Bailey, and Cobb carry as much of that risk and they are worse then Wacha when healthy

Gonzo_The_Great
Gonzo_The_Great
7 years ago

Any thoughts on the epic tire-fire that used to be called “T.J. House” ?

I’m kind of shocked at his epic collapse in his first two starts. I can’t imagine he’s got much leeway given their pitching situation.

scottsteelers
scottsteelers
7 years ago

Yesssss. Love this! So as of right now this is my rotation. Scherzer, J zimm, Carrasco, shane greene, Shelby miller, Salazar, Pomeranz, Hammel. Right now I have 2 different possible trades. I have mccutch who I’m fearful of this year. So I trade mccutch for Harvey who is a 16th or 17th rd keeper I can’t remember. Or mccutch for dickerson+wacha. My 3 OF spots and Util are occupied by Mookie (who made the move to OF after I scooped Devon Travis) Puig, Mccutch then either r zimmerman or Pollock at Util. I have Pence coming off the DL in a week or 2 as well. Which trade, or stay where I’m at?? 12 team H2H keeper league. Thanks dude!

scottsteelers
scottsteelers
Reply to  scottsteelers
7 years ago

@scottsteelers: mccutcg would be a 4th rd keeper next season as well. Forgot to include his value. I’ve been trying to trade him for 2 years now, even as a Pirates fan. Ha

scottsteelers
scottsteelers
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: yea I know… haha. I just fear mccutch legs won’t be under him all season. Word on these Bradenton streets is that mccutch knows he needs a procedure done on his knee but is going to play through it… that could end very poorly. Or he could be a god damn MVP. Haha

Greyismyhero
Greyismyhero
7 years ago

FAAB bid on Rondo??? …$100 in bank… Thanks

Scott
Scott
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: LOL

Jim
Jim
7 years ago

Any concerns about Jordan Zimmermann?
Do you see a reason for the start he has had?

Scott
Scott
7 years ago

No drop for Anibal Sanchez after he stunk it up Saturday?

Scott
Scott
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: True, I don’t want to overreact. Like the guy who dropped Phil Hughes in one league. I’ll be on the waiver for him.

Cram It
Cram It
7 years ago

Nate Karns! 5 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, (skims over BB line), 7 K’s! Nate Karns!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Oooooh well that’s better than I thought. At least he’s on the spreadsheet. We’re getting there Nate, make me proud…

Chris
Chris
7 years ago

Hello JB,

I actually drafted Greene in Rd 19, out of 21, following your recommendations, and not regreting a thing!!!

I’m looking to buy low Adrian Beltre.

Which SP do you recomend to offer:
Samardzijia, Wacha, Lynn, Archer.
Or the duo: Bauer + Greene.

What are yout thoughts on Beltre?

Thanks for your comments.

Chris
Chris
Reply to  Chris
7 years ago

@Chris: Hello JB,

another scenario is that I can include Laroche with another SP for Beltre.

Neil
7 years ago

Who would you rather take Soler or Lester? Also, Grey’s mustache is a bit less glorious after finding out he doesn’t like the fifth element.
I bet he’s not even human. He’s probably a meat popsicle.