The season is here baby!  Well, that’s kinda old news at this point, but I’m pumped for the first Pitcher Profile of 2015!

Every Monday this season, we’ll be breaking down fringy mixed-league starters (usually) to get a better gauge on their value and if they’re worthy of a valuable roster spot.  And I certainly like suggestions!  Add into the comments a pitcher that’s projected to start next weekend and I very well might end up Profiling them.  Wait, not like that!

Now to our debut this year, and I’ve just never really known what to make of Carlos Martinez.  Power stuff, destroys righties, but left-handed batters have crushed him.  I had Martinez 74 in my original ranks amongst SP,  but dropped him out in my re-ranks as he was heading to the bullpen.  Then Jaime Garcia blew out his 5th or 6th shoulder – I’ve lost count – so it’s back into the starting five, Carlos!  Made him as excited as I was when I stumbled upon his Twitter a few years ago…

So I decided to tune into his 2015 debut as a starter (he threw an inning of relief on opening night last Sunday), and break down how he looked against the Reds pitch-by-pitch:

First Inning: First pitch is a perfect fastball on the outside corner and on the knees to Billy Hamilton, who takes it for strike one.  Good test in this early season to see how C-Mart fares against a lot of good lefties, including the switch-hitting speedster.  94 MPH heat looks a tad outside, but gets the call and Hamilton isn’t too happy.  Well, then he nods to be like, “OK, your zone is off, but OK.”  Slider is in the dirt, change-up is nubbed foul, then a fastball on the inside edge is roped down the first base line for a leadoff double.  That 1-2 fastball was supposed to be at the knees and caught too much of the plate, that said it wasn’t a gapper or anything.  Joey Votto takes a 96 MPH fastball low, then 87 MPH is low – I think that was a change-up but moved almost like a nasty cutter!  2-0 pitch is another change-up, and ohhhh-eeeee!  89 MPH on the knees and Votto swings over it:

Martinez-Change-1

[note on the GIFs today – I know the quality is kinda poopy, but I’m getting a new computer this week (!!!!) to better handle multimedia work]

C-Mart then goes fastball that is outside, another change-up that was definitely low is tapped foul, then yet another change-up on a 3-2 count is swung on and missed, and Votto strikes out.  Ya know, they say for RHP the great equalizer vs. lefties is a good change-up, and man am I encouraged he might be able to get em out this year.  Last year he only threw change-ups 3% of the time (according to the broadcast – Fangraphs says 9.3%), so it’s great to see him using them a lot right away.  96 MPH fastball is inside to Todd Frazier, 84 MPH slider is in there, then he pulls the slider out of the zone after getting one in there and Frazier swings way over top:

Martinez-Slider

Man, I’m already itching to move C-Mart up in my rankings.  That’s some great stuff with a plus fastball.  Then slider again gets him rolling over top of it for a routine grounder to short, two down.  Then the first pitch to Brandon Phillips is a 96 MPH heater crushed to left center, but Jon Jay makes a diving catch on the track to save a run for C-Mart.  Man, gotta avoid those first-pitch hacks!  Definitely a run saved by the D.

Second Inning: Opening the 2nd, C-Mart goes with a fastball low to Jay Bruce, very very close fastball is just low and outside, 95 MPH fastball again is just outside, 3-0 fastball is in there, then the 3-1 pitch is another fastball on the outer edge and high, and Bruce reached out for it and homers to dead center.  Wow, K-zone had it outside of the strike zone, Bruce is a strong, strong man.  Down 0-1 now, C-Mart hopes to bounce back with a change-up swung on and missed by Brennan Boesch (another lefty), 96 MPH is low, then a fastball is grounded hard down the third base line, and Matt Carpenter makes a diving web gem with a cannon throw to get him out by a millisecond.  So the D helps on that one too – that said, the Cards shifted the lefty and Carpenter was well off the line.  Normal positioning and it’s likely an easy-ish play.  Beautiful sinking fastball at 96 MPH gets strike one on Brayan Pena, slider is hung a bit at 83 and fouled back, then an 85 MPH change-up that stays in the zone is fisted to right for a flare single.  Still want a better pitch there 0-2 though.  Martinez with another good first-pitch fastball gets strike one on Zack Cozart, fastball again fouled back, then the 0-2 slider is spiked way outside for a wild pitch moving Pena to second.  Young pitcher syndrome there – 0-2 change-up to Pena was too hittable, so he overthrew the slider to Cozart trying not to make the same mistake.  But C-Mart collects himself and gets a slider to sweep out of the zone for a swinging strike 3.  Nice pitch and recovery there.  Opposing pitcher Raisel Iglesias takes a fastball well inside, he fouls back the next fastball, then 95 MPH fastball is chopped to short for an easy out to end the inning.

Third Inning: Back to the top and Hamilton takes a fastball outside, change-up is outside, a great fastball (at only 92 MPH though) nips the outside corner, then he hits the inside black at the knees at 95 to make it 2-2.  Change-up is nipped foul, change again is outside, then change-up again at 85 MPH absolutely freezes Hamilton for strike 3 looking:

Martinez-Change-2

Change-up mowing through the lefties, gotta love it.  Martinez starts Votto with a slider surprisingly that stays high and outside, zips a fastball in there to make it 1-1, misses just low, then a 2-1 fastball at the knees is hit sharply to first for a hard groundout.  Votto definitely dropped an F-bomb right there mad he missed that one, and I caught a second one when he got into the dug out!  Haha.  Fastball is inside to Frazier, then a perfect slider gets the zone 1-1.  Then a great sinking heater at 95 gets a swing, then change-up at 88 in nearly the same spot gets Frazier out front for his 4th K.  Great inning.

Fourth Inning: Hoping to keep it rolling, Martinez starts Phillips off with a fastball again, but this time it was off the plate outside and Phillips is late and fouls it off.  You know Phillips wanted that one.  Then Martinez pours a great slider in there to make it 0-2, then slider again at only 81 MPH is way low, Phillips tries to golf it but it’s flared to left for a sliding catch, but nothing too difficult.  Martinez gets ahead of Bruce 0-1, change-up is in the dirt, 95 MPH fastball pulled foul, change-up is way outside with Martinez stumbling a bit – maybe another overthrow – change-up is grounded foul, Martinez unafraid to mix in that slider but it bends low and inside, payoff pitch is a change pulled foul, then another change-up is way low in the dirt for a walk.  Bruce was just a tough out there, spoiled some pretty good ones.  Great 94 MPH fastball is in there to Boesch, fastball again is sliced foul, slider is inside, then change-up that started on the inside black just dies and hits the dirt at 87 MPH and Boesch is well over it and in front for another K.  Then Pena hits the first pitch fastball weakly to third to end the frame.

Fifth Inning: Finding himself with some support and a 3-1 lead, Martinez starts solid again with a fastball in there for strike one to Cozart, slider misses, another slider is nipped back foul, change-up on the inner half is pulled foul, then a slider well outside and low gets Cozart unable to hold his swing for Martinez’s 6th K.  C-Mart continues to pound the zone with first-pitch fastballs and pinch hitter Skip Schumaker fouls it back, another fastball is taken for a strike 0-2, change-up gets Skip flailing but he gets a piece, then change again is a nubbed and Martinez fields his spot well for the out.  Nice non-panicky fielding.  84 MPH change-up is way inside and low with Hamilton hopping out of the way, fastball is outside to fall behind 2-0, whoa fastball again at 94 is way, way outside for a bad 3-0 count.  92 get-me-over fastball is in there, then fastball again at only 91 (!!!!) MPH is hit well for another home run.  Martinez has hit 95+ multiple times!  Don’t like to see the aggression wane right there.  First pitch to Votto is a change-up that sails to the backstop, and Martinez is rattled, out comes Yadier Molina.  Needing to collect himself, Martinez’s 1-0 is a change-up in the dirt, then a perfect one is in there at 86 to make it 2-1.  Fastball dribbled back, 87 MPH change is way inside and low, fastball is barely tipped foul still 3-2, and fastball again hitting 95 on the gun is chopped weakly right to Martinez, and he makes the easy toss to short to get out of the inning.

Sixth Inning: At 86 pitches, Martinez is back out there and hits 96 MPH on his first pitch and gets a foul back from Frazier, slider is taken for 0-2, then slider again at 83 MPH is a little bit hung and Martinez actually falls over.  Weird.  Oh, Frazier flies it out weakly to right, so I guess it works.  One out and slider is hung high to Phillips, great slider at 85 bending out of the zone is swung over, then a great 95 MPH fastball is tipped foul, 1-2:

Martinez-Fastball

Then slider at 85 that didn’t have a huge break but changed the speed gets a swing-and-miss for the second out.  Bruce takes low, change-up is then outside, change is way low in the dirt, 3-0.  That change-up has been filthy at times, but inconsistent like those last two pitches.  Then change-up again is outside for a four pitch walk.  Martinez wanted none of Bruce.  Boesch takes one of those great fastballs at 94 for strike one on the outside lower black, fastball again is grounded weakly foul, then a perfect 86 MPH change-up just dies in the bottom of the zone with Boesch swinging over it for a 3-pitch strikeout on Martinez’s 100th pitch and ends his outing.  Poetic for sure!

Final Line:  ND  6.0 IP  100 Pitches (66 Strikes)  2 ER  4 Hits  2 Walks  8 K  Gamescore: 62  Gamescore+: 65.2

Final Analysis: Wow, huge improvement on those change-ups!  Making me a buyer-roosky!  Wait, does that mean I’m a Russian buyer?  Anyway, it was a big enough change to his arsenal to have me move him all the way to #55 in my rankings.  The Gamescore+ ended up being a few higher than his Gamescore mainly due to the strong Ks (if you’re new, a breakdown of this stat I created can be found here) rather than unfortunate hits (hard to be unlucky when 50% of your hits given up are homers!).

The title says it all – Martinez has (for the most part) found that change-up and gives me a ton of confidence he can get lefties out.  The Reds’ line-up is lefty heavy with the switch-hitting Hamilton along with Bruce and Votto; sure Martinez gave up homers to two of them (so maybe this isn’t the next argument!), but he kept them neutralized most of the game.  And really impressively, he had at least one strikeout every inning.

Martinez obviously flashes a plus fastball, as his calling card is triple-digits capable heat.  He didn’t get it that fast as a starter (nor does he need to), but it was located extremely well usually at 94-95.  But that get-me-over ish ain’t gonna fly (well, it will have opposing hits fly!).  No reason he should’ve given up that homer to B-Ham on a please-hit-me 91 MPH fastball.  We’ve previously seen Martinez rely on that slider (26.5% usage last year), but C-Mart only threw 10 of them out of his 100 pitches.  Instead, it was a huge reliance on that change-up, and Martinez spoon fed the Reds lefties a steady diet with 25 thrown on the afternoon.  That’s about as many as he threw all of last year (well, not really, but it’s gone from 9.3% in 2014, up to 25% in a one-game sample).  The change-up usage is my #1 reasoning for moving him so far up.

C-Mart is probably owned in all weekly H2H Pts leagues where his SP/RP eligibility is a huge boon to his value, but he’s right there for mixed-league ownership in all leagues.  He still showed a little inconsistency, but not enough to deter me in a solid ranking ROS.  Plus it always helps having Yadi as your signal caller.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, Team
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Chris Sale, CWS
3 Felix Hernandez, SEA
4 Max Scherzer, WAS
5 Corey Kluber, CLE
6 Madison Bumgarner, SF
7 David Price, DET
8 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
9 Matt Harvey, NYM
10 Johnny Cueto, CIN
11 Jake Arrieta, CHC
12 Zack Greinke, LAD
13 Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
14 Cole Hamels, PHI
15 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
16 Jon Lester, CHC
17 Garrett Richards, LAA
18 Gerrit Cole, PIT
19 Alex Wood, ATL
20 Jeff Samardzija, CWS
21 Julio Teheran, ATL
22 Jacob deGrom, NYM
23 James Paxton, SEA
24 Tyson Ross, SD
25 Collin McHugh, HOU
26 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
27 Yordano Ventura, KC
28 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
29 Sonny Gray, OAK
30 James Shields, SD
31 Michael Pineda, NYY
32 Adam Wainwright, STL
33 Alex Cobb, TB
34 Shane Greene, DET
35 Scott Kazmir, OAK
36 Brandon McCarthy, LAD
37 Phil Hughes, MIN
38 Lance Lynn, STL
39 Matt Shoemaker, LAA
40 Anibal Sanchez, DET
41 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
42 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
43 Jake Odorizzi, TB
44 Homer Bailey, CIN
45 Chris Archer, TB
46 Michael Wacha, STL
47 Francisco Liriano, PIT
48 Drew Smyly, TB
49 Doug Fister, WAS
50 Jose Quintana, CWS
51 Mike Fiers, MIL
52 Mat Latos, MIA
53 Andrew Cashner, SD
54 Trevor Bauer, CLE
55 Carlos Martinez, STL
56 Jered Weaver, LAA
57 J.A. Happ, SEA
58 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
59 Jason Hammel, CHC
60 Mike Leake, CIN
61 Justin Verlander, DET
62 Jake Peavy, SF
63 Drew Hutchison, TOR
64 Drew Pomeranz, OAK
65 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
66 Kyle Lohse, MIL
67 Chase Anderson, ARI
68 A.J. Burnett, PIT
69 Ian Kennedy, SD
70 Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD
71 Wily Peralta, MIL
72 Chris Tillman, BAL
73 Jesse Hahn, OAK
74 Daniel Norris, TOR
75 Carlos Rodon, CWS
76 Mike Minor, ATL
77 Jose Fernandez, MIA
78 CC Sabathia, NYY
79 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
80 Shelby Miller, ATL
81 Danny Duffy, KC
82 John Lackey, STL
83 Tim Hudson, SF
84 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
85 R.A. Dickey, TOR
86 Matt Garza, MIL
87 Wei-Yin Chen, BAL
88 Taijuan Walker, SEA
89 Edinson Volquez, KC
90 Rick Porcello, BOS
91 Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
92 Kyle Gibson, MIN
93 Jon Niese, NYM
94 Tom Koehler, MIA
95 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
96 Clay Buchholz, BOS
97 Kendall Graveman, OAK
98 Kevin Gausman, BAL
99 Aaron Harang, PHI
100 Zach McAllister, CLE

Dropped Out: Ervin Santana, MIN (PEDs), Derek Holland, TEX (shoulder issues – 60-day DL), Matt Cain, SF (DL and not throwing), Henderson Alvarez, MIA (headed for an MRI on his elbow, and I only had him 90s anyway…)

  • I think it’s still a little too early to add wear down and innings limit notations like I did last year, but what do you think?
  • Ugh, King Felix, nooooooo!  Doesn’t sound like his quad tightness is serious, and as long as it’s not a muscle in that golden arm, we all good.
  • We all loved Lester heading to the NL, but man, his inability to hold base runners gives me the heebie jeebies in the small-ball-emphasized division.
  • I sure was worried about Paxton through that shortened and rocky Spring, but man he dialed it up now that it’s the regular season.
  • McHugh had the good start, but I watched a good bit of it and he didn’t look like the same pitcher as last year.  Not as crisp, very marginally slower velo on the fastball, and there was this one 3-0 count where he threw a fastball to the backstop…  Very odd, and on top of all of that, Choo and Rua (not that he was playing well anyway) both left early.  And even more, reportedly pitched through allergies and a small blister on his finger – the same one that landed him on the DL last year – even though he said he wasn’t worried.  All of that combined and I’m still likely higher than where most rankers have him, but knocking him down a few.
  • Dallas Keuchel looked absolutely unreal.  I think he can up the Ks even more to be a Roto-breakout, even though he only had a 3:3 K:BB yesterday (but still has a QS).
  • Look at all this buzz for Shane Greene!  All I gotta say is – ancient history to me!
  • Same with Kazmir, both ended up on a ton of my teams.  If only the MLB season was a week long!
  • A lot of panic and dread for Latos, who I had below consensus, but even with another slight drop in my ranks he’s still going to be a usable pitcher this year.
  • Well, that Taijuan Walker buzz sure died out!  I still think he can be OK, but even off that Spring I wasn’t a big buyer.
  • Flip side for Bauer, who off the hot Spring threw those 6 no-hit innings.  11 Ks to 5 BB is quite the antithesis to efficient pitching, but it’s Wild Thing-esque for sure!
  • Final thought – Daniel Norris’ circle change was filthy, but he had some major troubles after the first time through the order against the Yankees.  In the streamer class.

Thoughts on C-Mart or the re-ranks?  Any mistakes, which I’m sertanly apt to make?  Shoot your thoughts below, and happy 2015 and happy pitching!

 

 

  1. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    Really nice post. Could you elaborate on why you think so much of Shane Greene or point me to where you have done so in the past?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @RotoLance: Sure thing, here are my thoughts on him in my original ranks: (https://razzball.com/2015-top-100-starting-pitchers/)
      “Sleeper alert! Mmmm, another sexy cutter-er. Greene was near dominant to finish up 2014, with a 52:16 K:BB his last 41.1 innings as his numbers improved from the Minors with that development of the cutter. Moving to the spacious Comerica Park, Greene does have walk issues of his own but I see more chance of improvement. High .330 BABIP masked a better season in his small sample last year.”

      And I watched his first start, and the fastball/cutter/87 MPH-94 MPH variants of pitches in that range were dancing everywhere, reminded me of Kluber a little. Very encouraging

  2. Steve says:
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    What do you make of Graveman’s start last week? He looked particularly awful.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Steve: I didn’t see it, but he’s a sinkerballer and I read he had a lot of jitters so it wasn’t sinking. I wasn’t a big fan heading into the year, but great park and team behind him if he can be serviceable so I kept him in one more week. Another bad start and he’s out.

  3. los locos says:
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    JB – who you thinking next week? Trevor Bauer?? McCarthy is not owned in my two 10 team leagues. Was going to pick him up, but needed to get a closer Miller. I own Cichek but he’s looked awful so far, so I dropped Peralta for Miller. Now looking at the staff below, should I drop any those players for McCarthy?

    What are you thoughts of Bailey? Looks like the end of the week he will be back, he is also available.

    My current staff in both leagues:
    Kershaw
    Strausburg
    Shoemaker
    Paxton
    Hutchinson

    Fiers
    Bauer
    Cischek
    Boxberger
    Miller

    Other League:
    Scherzer
    Hamels
    Gray
    Teheran
    Paxton

    CMart
    Hammels
    Bailey – DL

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @los locos: Still not 100% in on Bauer, would rather Bailey, who I think was way overlooked. I’d rather Bailey over Hutchison, over Bauer in league 2. Hmmm I have McCarthy over CMart but might hold off on that move with Martinez a buzzy add, would add McCarthy over Jason Hammel though

  4. Henry says:
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    Hey JB! Do you like Shane Greene over Quintana ROS?

    Or would you rather drop either Eaton or Avisail for Greene as a bench starter. 10 team weekly 5×5.

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Henry: Yup! Greene 34 vs. Quintana 50 so I think there’s a decent gap. Sure if neither bat is starting for you, I think I’d lose Avisail first, even though he’s been a lot better than Eaton so far. Any time!

  5. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Love these, thanks JB! How about Norris v. ATL next? It’s probably just the beard + van, but between the K potential and that offense behind him, I’m very intrigued.

    What do you think happened to Fiers that start? He looked good, but it seemed like every hit he gave up went for extra bases…

    Right now I’ve got Hutch + Fiers on my roster, staring at Greene and Bauer on waivers. I’ve been really excited about Hutch + Fiers, but your rankings have Greene pretty far in front of those guys, especially Hutch. Would you drop Hutch for Greene and/or Fiers for Bauer?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Haha yeah I think Norris is a good streamer there, still worried maybe the 3rd time through guys will do better.

      Of course the Fiers start was the one Brewers game I wasn’t able to watch so far. He attacks the zone so if he misses at all he can get hit, glad he had no walks.

      Def Hutch for Greene. Eeesh have Fiers and Bauer mad close, will go with ranks and take Fiers still

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks! I didn’t see the starting lineup, but maybe Aramis was sitting that game? :-)

        I think I’ll try my luck with Hutch v. Braves then ditch him, especially with Greene having a nice 2 starter next week.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Hah nah I don’t think he was, I don’t think he’s sat so far this year… Mmmmm2 Greene starts!

  6. slimbo says:
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    What’s up JB

    Would you drop avasil garcia, oswaldo arcia, or duda for one of these guys

    Canah, moustakas, pearce or kazmir

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @slimbo: Wouldn’t the first two. Latter two depend on roster comp, if they’re all bench bats I’m good losing the first two for Pearce and Kazmire

  7. Swfcdan says:
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    On a time constraint so had to skip the bulk of the report but I read the conclusion at the end! Sounds like C-Mart’s roster worthy even in 10 team leagues. Start him regularly going forward now?

    • Swfcdan says:
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      @Swfcdan: Also second the Paxton question, start or sit in a 10 teamer?

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Swfcdan: All good man, that’s what it’s there for! Ehhhhh, 10ers not quite there yet. Very close. Tough road matchups I might be leery.

        Start Paxton!

        • Swfcdan says:
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          @JB Gilpin: But he’s a “drop and you’ll lose him” type now right? I could definately use him backending my staff after the Latos disaster and Cobb injury.

          Knew you’d say yes on Paxton! haha

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Swfcdan: Yeah I agree with that. Definitely tough doing ROS ranks while also being sure you own the right guy at the right time haha. Pax = my lover

            • Swfcdan says:
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              @JB Gilpin: @JB Gilpin: Not great from Pax, decided to play it cool and glad I did! Still will be starting him vs most offenses. That same league I was scared off Cole too vs the Tigres and look how he did, last time im benching him.

              And ha on C-Mart’s twitter link above, you could say he’s filthy in more ways than one.

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Swfcdan: Ugh, yeah he looked great through 3, had two innings of trouble, but very encouraging to see him get a clean 6th and that first out of the 7th. I woulda taken Cole over Pax though :)

                Hahahaha, ba-bing!

  8. UncleLarryWalker says:
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    Thanks JB – love having 4 in the top 25, plus C-MART!

    Do I start or sit Paxton tonight against the Dodgers? I’m torn…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @UncleLarryWalker: Nice! Yup it’s a good park and gets a pitcher in there, play him!

  9. J-Dawg says:
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    JP, saw that McAllister moved up to that final spot. I knew I needed pitching post-auction and he was looking good over the spring. Of course his first start occurred after I picked him up and it was a stinker. But he was facing a hot team, so I’m hoping your ranking of him reflects some faith you have and not putting much stock into that first start. Good pickup?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @J-Dawg: Yeah I’m not a huge buyer, but enough of some upside to make it in with more guys dropping out. Depends on who else is out there, but yeah I’m fine holding on to see how it goes

  10. What do you think of a l.m. ( who has only veto on trades) trade Pedro alverez and m. Ozuna and got joe kelly and Andrew mcclucton. Best players on waivers are the likes of Matt Adams polanco and a.j pollock your honest replies will be appr.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Peter guigli: I would certainly ask for an explanation, that seems really fishy

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @Peter guigli: complete b.s., at best one owner needs to be saved (and the rest of the league from jacking up one team too much) from himself.

  11. Cram It says:
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    I’m trying to get some Nate Karns buzz going around here. Keep your ear to the ground. I will get him in your top 100 before the season is over.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Cram It: I thought that was just a gnat! Hah, will do man I’ll try to check out one of his next few starts.

  12. ShawnOfTheLivid says:
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    I was big on C-mart last year and was perplexed by his dismal entry the bigs. But I bought him up everywhere I could this year so lets hope my original instinct was correct!

    I’ve watched him pitch and think he could be great, same with Bauer.

    By biggest gripe with your ranks by far is Paxton. I own him here and there, but no clue why you have him so high! To be ranked at 23 there has to be a larger body of work to observe. IMO of course!

    My JB year end predictions :

    * Paxton ends around 45-55 (Dodgers will brutalize him tonight)

    *C-Mart moves into the 20’s

    * You fall in love with Bauer, A La Matt Harvey

    Thanks for the great read, love your articles!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @ShawnOfTheLivid: Looking pretty good right now!

      Well, ya know sometimes I go with my gut and I’ve seen almost all of his MLB starts and it’s just so good and so smooth. We shall see! But I think he has a good one tonight. 20s for Cmart, hmmmm possible. Bauer is possible, gotta be more efficient like he showed in Spring.

      Thanks for much for reading man!

  13. OldMilwaukeePounders says:
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    Love the post, JB. At this point, would you be confident in cutting Hutch loose for C-Mart if he struggles with Atlanta? I know it is early, but C-Mart could absolutely blow up this year. To your point regarding Yadi helping C-Mart, lets not forget that Russ Martin should really help the Toronto youngsters out too.

    Your boy Jimmy Nelson took it to my VERY shorthanded Pirates…I am betting on a different outcome in his next start against them on the 17th…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @OldMilwaukeePounders: Thanks man! Yup definitely moving on from hutch, I wasn’t big on him coming into the season.

      Hah, totally agree, Grey and I talked Nelson and my hesitation with him on the Podcast as well. That Pirates lineup was garbage and Nelson wasn’t dominant like the line would assume

  14. Tom says:
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    Have any thoughts on Archie Bradley? Obviously one start doesn’t mean a ton, but he looked pretty solid against the Dodgers.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Tom: Needs to work on his efficiency, I think he was in like the 60s in pitches in the 3rd inning even though he wasn’t getting knocked around. I own him in a few leagues so definitely worth the flyer.

  15. Prime_Time_Players says:
    (link)

    JB, what’s your thoughts on Danny Salazar. Reports said he was pretty impressive this weekend. Think he could take over a rotation spot for House or McAllister.

    If he started in the majors, where would you have ranked him?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Prime_Time_Players: Good question, I had him 52 in February. Definitely docked right now if he was called up tomorrow because he couldn’t even crack the opening day rotation. 70s sounds about right

      • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: if he was 52 in feb, and has job now, and had a great start, why would he only be in the 70’s?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @A Wesley Snipes Life: Now back to 50s range. Issue was possibility this was a spot start (at time of comment, McAllister could’ve stayed in rotation)

        • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
          (link)

          @A Wesley Snipes Life: now i see why, cause when you said that you still didn’t think he’d have job. makes sense.

  16. yellowman says:
    (link)

    Archie doesn’t make the list (yet)?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @yellowman: With some reflection, yeah I shoulda had him maybe mid to late 80s, but I want to see one more start, and hopefully see better efficiency. Thanks for reminding me though! Kinda thought he was ranked already haha…

  17. Jack says:
    (link)

    Rank your top 3 streamers out of the following. Can’t pick more than one per day:
    4/14 S. Greene @Pit (Burnett)
    4/15 Morrow vARI (C. Anderson)
    4/15 C. Anderson @SD (Morrow)
    4/15 Niese vPhi (Williams)
    4/17 Hammel vSD (Shields)
    4/19 McCarthy vCol (Butler)
    4/19 Hudson vAri (Hellickson)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jack: 1 is def Greene. 2 Hammel 3 McCarthy. Niese is close, but I feel like I streamed him a few times vs. Phillies and it never went well…

  18. Ron says:
    (link)

    I’m in an H2H Points league and I’m trying to jump on some pitchers early so I don’t have to fight for them later. I don’t have any open roster spots so I would need to drop to add.

    Current Roster:
    SP – Arrieta, Gray, McHugh, Keuchel, Greene, Pineda
    RP – Carrasco, Shoemaker
    DL – Kennedy, Ryu
    NA – Rodon

    On the Wire:
    Paxton, C-Mart, Hahn, Dickey, Duffy, A. Miller, Gausman, Eovaldi

    1) How would you grade my current pitching staff?
    2) Would you recommend any drops and pickups to improve?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Ron: Love that staff, especially the SP as RP for a Pts. Man it’s really hard to tell anyone to lose Pineda, but yea gimme Paxton over him! Any time!

  19. kisses says:
    (link)

    Jose Fernandez was dropped in my league. Worth the DL stash or wait to see what he does? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @kisses: Sure if you aren’t losing anyone too good to just put him on an open Dl spot, why not

      • kisses says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: will probably drop Cecil to stash JoFer. Looking to Betancourt or Ottavino if I need another set-up/closer (or could probably get Cecil back once he clears waivers.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @kisses: Yeah I like that a lot. Since Rockies situation is so unclear, I don’t think I have a huge favorite in either one of the two so one will likely be there for ya

  20. David says:
    (link)

    12 team 6×6 roto. Extra categories are SLG and holds with OBP replacing avg. Keep every year as long as you like but at least 2 have to be pitchers. Was offered Bumgarner for J. Pederson or Brantley. The possible hitters to keep are: those 2, Puig, Rizzo, C. Davis, Braun and Duda. Pitchers are: Price, Harvey, Ross, McHugh. Would you do the deal and if so, which one would you let go? Thanks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @David: I like Pederson as much as the next guy, but I would have to take Bumgarner there for him, Mad Bum is still young himself. Any time!

  21. Emily Bonerface says:
    (link)

    Is it just me, or are a lotta really good pitchers getting smacked around? MadBum, Zimmerman, Samardzijasjaja; Stras and Kershaw a bit; Bucholz and Taijuan…Really, just wondering when the last time 2 top 10 pitchers gave up 8+ runs in their respective starts. Seems lame.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Emily Bonerface: Yeah it’s been a weird start! Luckily I only own one of those guys (Bumgarner) in only one league, so I’ve been avoiding the mine field!

  22. Abe Froman says:
    (link)

    Man, I really hope McHugh is alright–leaning on him hard in my AL-only league.

    On that note, what do you make of Edinson Volquez and Kyle Gibson? Notice they cracked your list, but just barely. One of our owners spent $25 of his FAAB (or a quarter of the year’s budget) on Volquez, which I thought was crazy. Gibson is still on waivers.

    No specific add/drop question–just curious of your opinions on those two.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Abe Froman: Yeah me too, have him in a few. Think it might start a little slow.

      AL-only, kinda surprised Volquez was out there, but indeed that seems a bit pricey. Certainly a lot more upside, maybe he has figured a few things out after a year with Searage and being OK on the Pirates. Gibson is more consistent, with low Ks

  23. Bob says:
    (link)

    10 Team H2H Roto Categories 6×6. Extra Categories being K’s for hitters and QS for pitchers. Current pitching lineup is the below. Anyone you think I should be trying to get out of . I traded Pomeranz to get at Cobb.Also on Waivers is Bradley and Nelson. Like them better than any of my bench guys as flyers?

    P-Arrietta
    P-Samarj
    P-Gio Gonzalez
    P-Colin McHugh
    P-Matt Shoemaker
    RP-Grilli
    RP-Feliz
    Bench-Tijuan Walker
    Bench-Andrew Miller
    Bench-Mike Fiers
    Bench-Iwakuma
    DL-Alex Cobb
    DL-Jansen

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Bob: Yeah I think I like Nelson over Walker. I get Taijuan’s upside, but I’ve never been a 100% believer. Awesome move for Cobb!

  24. Mostsuckass says:
    (link)

    Still believing in Tanaka? The first two starts haven’t been encouraging.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Mostsuckass: Yeah I am, looked pretty good against the Sox and didn’t throw too many innings in Spring. I think if he stays healthy he will be solid when it’s said and done. Big if though…haha

  25. Fungazi says:
    (link)

    You see Hahn’s last start? His ratios are good, but it seems like he pitches everything to contact and relies on defense. Wasn’t impressed and dropped him off teams I had him.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Fungazi: I didn’t, I watched him a good bit last year when he was a hot add and had the same opinion. Helps he still has a good park and a good O behind him for some decent W potential, but yeah I think me having him at 73 is out of the range of most 10 and 12 league ownership

  26. ShawnOfTheLivid says:
    (link)

    Yanks bringing up De La Cuze. Been following him in the minors for awhile. Rookie sleeper?

    Thoughts JB?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @ShawnOfTheLivid: Ehhhhh, wish the K rate was a little better, but you never know. Would take a few really good starts to get on my radar, but will be watching!

  27. ShawnOfTheLivid says:
    (link)

    Hawkins out. Nice timing with that article Grey!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @ShawnOfTheLivid: Effin Betancourt instead of Ottavino, who looks filthy. I’m probably avoiding that mess in most leagues

      • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: the day you said this it was only betancourt since ottavino had gone 3 innings in previous two days, it was in the blurbs.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @A Wesley Snipes Life: It wasn’t at the time, I’m still not fully invested, just because of opportunity, though Ottavino is a must own certainly

  28. malamoney

    malamoney says:
    (link)

    Good stuff JB. Weaver or Archie Bradley?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @malamoney: Still Weaver, but ugh I don’t like him that much. Obviously if you have a lot of pitchers and is more a stash, I could indeed go Bradley

  29. C says:
    (link)

    I’m currently in dead last in all hitting categories (R, HR, RBI, TB, OBP, and NSB). Here are my bats:

    C B. Posey
    1B J. Abreu
    2B J. Gyokro
    3B J. Donaldson
    SS D. Santana
    OF S. Marte
    OF C. Yelich
    OF K. Calhoun
    Util L. Martin
    Util A. Gose
    Bench O. Arcia
    Bench M. Semien

    Should I try to deal one of my pitchers (below) to upgrade a bat? League counts QS and Holds:

    SP S.Gray
    SP G. Cole
    SP J. deGrom
    SP J. Quintana
    SP. C Archer
    RP D. O’Day
    RP. J. Smith
    RP. K. Giles
    RP A. Ottavino
    P. H. Rondon
    P. D. Storen
    Bench C. Rodon

    • C says:
      (link)

      @C:

      Roto 12 team.

    • Fastpitch says:
      (link)

      @C: You have 6 guys that score runs and steal bases. Hardly any power. Yes you need power. You probably need to trade a pitcher and on outfielder or two and get two power bats.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @C: Yeah I’m not overreacting to anything yet, but agree some power should help. I’m not huge on Quintana, but Gray starting this hot makes him a great sell-high and I like deGrom and Cole enough to be your 1 & 2.

  30. Fantasy Newb says:
    (link)

    Was just offered VMart and Pence for Gattis and Bryant. I have Yadier and a DL spot that’s already occupied. 10 team categories.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Fantasy Newb: Ummmm, yes right away! Huge value to get right there

  31. Nightpandas says:
    (link)

    Super Greene!

    In a limited moves league I am looking to give Hawkins the boot. Need a fill in till Jansen or McGee come back. Looking at SP as no decent RP available. Thoughts (cats include K, K/9 and QS)

    Kohler – nice matchups at least this week
    Happ, Peavy, Hudson – boring types
    Chase Anderson or Rubby
    Nate Karns

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Nightpandas: What kind of Greene was it?! Super Greene!

      Ummmm, probably going Happ in a limited moves, still think there’s upside there

  32. bobbo says:
    (link)

    Which two would you rather own as a bench utility spot player: Brett Tattoes Lawrie, Billy Moobs Butler, or Kendrys No More Celebrations Morales?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @bobbo: Hah, I think I’ll go Morales. Best comment of the day award!

  33. DMoney says:
    (link)

    Which side do you like in a 16 team 5*5 with OPS instead of AVG?
    Side 1 – Sale & Plouffe or Freese
    Side 2 – Longoria & KJansen

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @DMoney: I love Sale, I think he’s best in deal, I’ll stick with Sale side

  34. Jerry says:
    (link)

    Hey, JP! Paxon was dropped in my league. Would you rather have him, Quintana, or Pomeranz for the rest of the season? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jerry: Def Paxton by a good margin, even after a rough one tonight. Any time!

  35. Natty Boh says:
    (link)

    How do you feel about Brandon Morrow? I see streamonator loves his next start.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Natty Boh: Man, I’d be nervous playing him any start that he might get hurt! Why I don’t have him ranked as a ROS value… I’d be hesitant to stream him

  36. Osnam says:
    (link)

    OK I’m having a hard time pulling the trigger on this trade. I was offered Desmond, Cain and Werth for my Rios, and Keuchel. I have Segura as my SS and my SP isn’t bad. I’m thinking about asking for H. Bailey instead of Cain. But even still, I’m not sure I can do it… could use some advice. Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Osnam: Mmmmmm I do love Keuchel, but that’s so much value coming your way and Rios got plunked on the hand which is a tad scary. I’d have to take it, Desmond is a great value coming your way

  37. Eric Bateman says:
    (link)

    I know you were high on McCarthy coming in(still ranked 36), but he has been less than stellar in two starts…reason for concern?

    • Fungazi says:
      (link)

      @Eric Bateman: McCarthy.. that guy never really had a great season before did he? How would he now?

      • Eric Bateman says:
        (link)

        @Fungazi: Well I know he had a decent run the end of last season and the Dodgers gave him a big contract. And JB has him ranked 36 and listed as one of his sleepers so I’m curious to know if if he’s still as high on him. He’s given up 4 HRs tonight in 5 innings.

        • Fungazi says:
          (link)

          @Eric Bateman: Maybe, I had him as a target in drafts, but it didn’t happen because I didn’t reach for him. Just looking at his history though, he was always hurt or just never put it all together.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Fungazi: @Eric Bateman: Well he’s made a drastic change. It’s like this is the same guy from 4 years ago that only got groundouts. Now throws power stuff that is resulting in some power hits haha. That said, WHIP is still good, tons and tons of Ks and he’s a notorious slow starter. Hitting 95 on the gun a lot too. I’m still encouraged and not dropping him where I got him.

          Fungazi – You had to reach for him to get him in your drafts? I got him in the last 2-3 rounds in mine, but I’m in no deep leagues this year (only 10 and 12ers sadly….)

          • Eric Bateman says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin: Thanks JB, I own him and Paxton (neither of which looked all that good tonight) but I’m not ready to bail on either of them this soon. I also own Norris and T.Walker, both of whom dropped quite a bit in your rankings…hoping they each improve as the season wears on. Guys like Nelson, C-Mart, Pomeranz are all gone. Happ is the highest rated guy in your update thats on the wire but I’m just not convinced he’s got as much upside as either Norris or Walker.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @Eric Bateman: Ugh, yeah rough night for my teams too. At least got good Ks and Paxton got the final 4 outs in order to end strong.

              Totally agree, Norris and Walker have more upside than Happ, but I think Happ is going to be under-the-radar solid all year

              • Eric Bateman says:
                (link)

                @JB Gilpin: Yeah tough night, the only thing that saved me was owning Odorizzi and Cole. You’re probably right regarding Haap. Just dont see anyone I can drop for him. My staff consists of:
                P Kluber
                P Odorizzi
                P Cole
                P Walker
                P Paxton
                SP Ventura
                SP S.Greene
                RP Chapman
                RP Britton
                Bench RP Perkins
                Bench RP Castro
                Bench SP McCarthy
                Bench SP D. Norris

                I suppose Castro would be the 1st arm I’d drop but I think he has value as long as he can keep the closer role and hold off Cecil.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
                  (link)

                  @Eric Bateman: Agree, and Happ is pretty far off most people’s radars, so it’s not like people are chomping at the bit to get him haha

                  • Eric Bateman says:
                    (link)

                    @JB Gilpin: Yeah Ive got Haap on my watch list in case Walker doesnt get his act together, or Norris disappoints. Do you like Norris better than Walker rest of the year, I know he’s ranked higher 74 vs 88. I ask because I may try to flip one of them for a bat. Would you trade Walker for say Danny Santana or Travis Snider? This is my offense, my staff is above in the comments:
                    C McCann
                    1B Freeman
                    2B Kipnis
                    3B Santana
                    SS A.Ramirez
                    OF Stanton
                    OF Springer
                    OF Soler
                    OF Betts
                    Util Pollock
                    Util Avisail Garcia
                    Util Lawrie
                    Bench Semien
                    Or would you drop Walker yet for any of the following guys on the wire: Eaton, Kiermaier, Byrd, Morse, Jennings, Ackley?Or just hold until Walker gets another start or two. Thanks as always!

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
                      (link)

                      @Eric Bateman: Yeah I like Norris. Walker is just all over the place and the whole major shoulder issues thing. Defffff would take Santana. You could have both Santana! Although then you have two fringy SS which is no good. Maybe Walker+Alexei for Santana and someone? If that doesn’t work, yeah I like a lot of those guys. Prob going Morse if Walker tanks another one. Any time!

          • Fungazi says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin: Well, maybe reach is the wrong word. I had others ranked ahead of him so I never got him. All 12 team leagues, in the round he went, I took these three before him – Pence, Avisail, Wheeler (burp). You get the idea though. McCarthy was going at rounds 15-16

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @Fungazi: Gotcha, yeah McCarthy didn’t take much of an investment and I’m still holding. Whoa, def taking Pence. Avisail seems meh to me, depends on if he’s your 5th starting OF. I was getting McCarthy in the 20s as one of my last bench guys, so yeah I don’t think I woulda gone that high for him in your leagues, must’ve had some buzz to your leaguemates

              • Fungazi says:
                (link)

                @JB Gilpin: There was some buzz about him on other sites I saw, sleeper posts and such. I was interested, just couldn’t pull the trigger that early but I guess others could.

  38. Grienke, Wacha & Shelby Miller all seem a bit lower than their performances would indicate.

    I know with Miller there was a lot of preseason concern about the Braves rebuilding & lack of run support, but the dude is pretty solid. Likewise with Wacha.

    And at this point I can’t see Lester being ranked in the top 100. He was terrible in Oakland & I’ve seen nothing in his 1st 2 starts that looks any better. I know you dropped him a bit – still seems very overrated.

    One man’s opinion.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Lucky Dog: Miller I don’t trust the Ks or efficiency, and he hasn’t gotten through more than 5 innings yet this year with only 5 Ks to 4 BB. Very uninspiring start.

      Wacha I worry about the shoulder, plain and simple. Greinke at 12 is too low? Maybe you could nitpick to get him to 9ish, but I don’t think anyone could be higher on him than that.

      I think Lester out of 100, even out of the top 30, would be way too panicky. “He was terrible in Oakland” – ???? 2.35 ERA 1.07 WHIP with 71 Ks in 76 IP. Was better in Oakland than his start with the BoSox!

  39. assy says:
    (link)

    got Latos and T. Walker on my roster, looking to add C-Mar…. really want to drop Latos but obviously you think he’s better than Walker (currently)….

    10 team H2H points league

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @assy: Yeahhhhh, I mean I know it’s hard to really support, but I think Latos will still be usable. Walker worries me more, but I could see a lot of people disagreeing

  40. Mac McMacinmac says:
    (link)

    Ja happ is sitting in my waivers.

    I have gee and

  41. Mac McMacinmac says:
    (link)

    Ja happ is sitting in my waivers.

    I have gee and a recently added Heston on my Bench.

    Which one drop of happ? I am a big met fan if it changes anything…

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Mac McMacinmac: Hah, yeah unfortunately Gee is my cut for you :) Any time man!

  42. Ante GALIC says:
    (link)

    JB!!!

    Great article, sorry for my late entry! This is the Holy Grail. Many thanks.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Ante GALIC: Thanks so much man! Really appreciate that!

  43. Blint says:
    (link)

    Hey JB

    Nice to see you on the baseball side of things :)

    A manager has put Chapman on the trading block! I have a lot of extra Ofs I can trade plus I have Kimbrel so It would be nice to pair them together!

    OFs I can trade- Yelich, Leonys, Pearce, Ozuna and Bruce.

    Plus I also have Trout and Stanton!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Blint: Yessir, nice to see you over here on baseball as well!

      Oh man, embarrassment of riches! Bruce with a couple of homers on the young season+Pearce? I doubt it works, but always a nice stepping stone to try and open dialogue!

      • Blint says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin:

        Insert Morpheus Meme

        What if I told you with those riches I lost the first week 5-15( yes we have a lot of categories) and losing 6-14 this week. Teams a mess totally! Will offer him the deal and get back at you :)

        Oh any MI on the WW you like? I have Daniel Murphy and Baez Not on Team so I need help there !! these are are guys available

        1) Jose Iglesias ( Wasnt he a one hit wonder singer in the 90s?)

        2) Anderlton Simmons

        3) Schooop

        4) Holt

        5) Lowrie

        6) Beckham

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Blint: Haha, well it’s still really early, so no need to panic. Of those guys, I probably like Lowrie the best, Simmons is a close 2nd. All fringy. Def need an infielder to emerge off the wire for ya!

          • Blint says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin:
            Ohh JB Jedd Gyorko just got dropped in my league! Should I pick him up and drop Lowrie who I picked up yesterday lol !

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @Blint: Ehhhhh, nah I’m not a Gyorko fan, he can probably stay out there

              • Blint says:
                (link)

                @JB Gilpin:

                heard the NBA podcast so apparently I am one of the 5 listeners you and slim love so much :P Not a Favre fan so I will take an entry into the commenter league for next year ;)

                I know I hate Gyorko too but so many experts are high on him I am assuming there must be something there! Thanksss will go with Lowrie only!

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
                  (link)

                  @Blint: Haha thanks man! We do love you! Ahhhhh, well I would still text someone if they really wanted it.

                  I think the experts are starting to bail haha. Any time man!

                  • Blint says:
                    (link)

                    @JB Gilpin:

                    U know what JB after the NBA draft the next podcast you do with Grey just start asking him keeper question on basketball :P

                    Great Job on the last podcast with you and Slim! Will miss you guys!

                    Also I need to pick up two pitchers for holds
                    http://i.imgur.com/PWjglv7.png

                    These are all the ones I have available. First year playing in holds league no idea what to look for in a pitcher if hes flukey etc!

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
                      (link)

                      @Blint: Hahaha I’ll just throw in a hoops question to throw him off :) We’ll be back soon man!

                      Haha def a better question for Smokey… I’d guess Manness and OSuna? But might be way off

                    • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
                      (link)

                      @Blint: no effort to type. osuna/fien/c.torres and if duke moves ahead of others him ahead of fien.

  44. Youth movement says:
    (link)

    Love the pitcher profiles. Also love having 5 of the top sixteen in my 16 team dynasty. What are your thoughts on desclafani? Being a marlins apologist, I liked how he looked last year, minus the gopher balls. Then I discovered one of the guys over at fangraphs was also a big fan and I didn’t feel special anymore.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Youth movement: Thanks man! Good to see ya over here on baseball. YOU ARE ALWAYS SPECIAL! Ummm, I saw a start or two of his last year and seemed meh-ish to me. Obviously the good park, and he’s one of the 3-4 names that I have just out (like Ubaldo. Ugh). Not a “great” K rate and not too flashy in the Minors, I’d have to see a few more to move him in

  45. wjessereid says:
    (link)

    Have

    Lester
    deGrom
    Paxton
    Shoemaker
    Walker

    Should I drop Walker for Greene? Also all but Walker are 2 start weeks, but Lester and Pax both got shelled last night. Have 2 starts left, who should get them if I add Greene? Thinking deGrom and Greene?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @wjessereid: Agree with everything there! Love Greene and def taking him over walker. Ugh, bad luck on Lester and Pax, both will be better

  46. Glenn says:
    (link)

    JB,
    Great stuff. As an Iwakuma owner I can’t say I disagree with your reranking on him but could you elaborate a bit on him for this year. Thanks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Glenn: Just was so hittable at the end of last year. Post ASB 4.15 ERA last year, gave up too many homers, and his K rate is fine, but not good enough to be top-tier. All that aside, main worry is health. Hurt a few times here in MLB, had a lot of injuries in Japan. Any time!

  47. Scott says:
    (link)

    Hey dude. You are my pitching guru. How’s my lineup?
    Anibal Sanchez
    Dallas Keuchel
    Brandon McCarthy
    Shane Greene
    Carlos Martinez
    Adam Ottavino
    Danny Farquhar
    Probable Starter
    Probable Starter
    DL Garrett Richards
    DL Hyun-Jin Ryu

    Obviously streaming 2 positions while waiting to get Richards and Ryu back.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Scott: Thanks man, I try! Mmmmmm love Richards. Very under-the-radar group of guys I like a lot. Is saves a stat though? missing out on any pure closers, although both your guys are close.

      • Scott says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Saves is a stat, but punted closers in the draft. Following Smokey Bear’s column for closer potential.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Scott: Gotcha yeah hopefully you can grab enough as they emerge, I certainly try to but sometimes peeps are quicker on the draw! Haha

  48. Scott says:
    (link)

    I like your by-line. Here’s another take:

    Start smart. Start C-Mart.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Scott: Hahaha, my original title was “PetSmart to open aquarium-only chain, C-Mart” but that seemed too punny and the change-up thing was too applicable haha

  49. los locos says:
    (link)

    Watch Brandon McCarthy last night, powerful stuff constant 94-95 mph and a whole lot of movement. Not walking people, but teams can hit off him. The homers last night was crazy. I’m on the fence of dropping Cishek for either Baily or McCarthy.

    I own Paxton, he didn’t have a bad night, but he reminds me of Kershaw in delivery.. Maybe a Kershaw 2.0…?

    I have Andrew Miller and Brad Boxberger, who I feel comfortable with right now and if I were to drop Cischek I don’t believe there would be a mad rush for him.

    Give me your thoughts?

    I have,
    Kershaw
    Strausburg
    Hutchinson
    Paxton
    Shoemaker

    Bauer
    Fiers

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @los locos: Yup, agree with all that on McCarthy. He is a notorious slow-start though, and still finding his his way through the new power stuff. I’ll take him over Bailey.

      Mmmmmm, Kersahw 2.0 would be awesome! But I don’t think he’s that yet. Breaking stuff isn’t nearly as good.

      Probably not a rush, but I still like Cishek. i personally would lose Hutchison for McCarthy.

  50. Dave says:
    (link)

    In 16-team league with QS, from your list, Peavy (#62), CAnderson (#67), Happ (#57), KGibson (#92), Syndergaard (#79, no DL room to stash), Gausman (#98) and de la Rosa (#91) are available. My not-on-your-top-100, bottom-of-my-rotation pitching staff includes Masterson, House, Miley, and Brett Anderson. I have a roster move limit, so if I make moves, I’d like them to be long-term, to what extent that is possible.

    What do you suggest? Are your suggestions a “think about” or “run and do it” variety? Cheers!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Dave: Eh, they’re all in the think about range. Ugh, maybe I have Peavy too high re-thinking that. My guy to get is Happ and I’m losing probably Brett Anderson. I just don’t think he stays healthy. House loked awful and Salazar looms, I’d probably go ahead and get Peavy, bit not running. Then Anderson for your other two Red Sox is in the “think about it” range in limited moves. Hope that helps!

  51. Oranje says:
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    I have Latos…and don’t want to have him anymore. Is it worth dropping him for Salazar and just waiting for the Indians to bring him back up? Any thoughts on how long he will stay in the minors? Also, in terms of another bench pitcher…which one would you rather have on your bench: Peavy, Burnett, Hammel? Thanks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Oranje: I think Latos will still be usable, I would hold off. I mean, I don’t have a great guess, all I’ll say is that if he couldn’t make the opening rotation, I would think they want some good seasoning for him. Gimme Hammel of those. ANy time!

  52. Scott says:
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    Why is Shelby so low? Worried about his short outings?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Scott: Yeah K:BB was an atrocity last year, with the overall Ks madly low. Very inefficient pitcher, and yeah, 2 5 inning outings with a 5:4 K:BB in two starts. Blah

  53. dem ribbies says:
    (link)

    sup JB, good stuff as always

    I’m thinking about dealing Cishek and a DL stash on Yu Darvish for Arrietta. What do you think? would probably drop Dan norris after.

    My rotation is as follows:
    M.Bumgarner
    G.Cole
    T.Ross
    A.Wood
    Y.Ventura
    C.McHugh
    J.Paxton
    D.Norris

    • dem ribbies says:
      (link)

      @dem ribbies: PS, prices are
      Arrieta $4

      Cishek $15
      Darvish $3

      and I’d pickup Ottavino from wire to backfill Cishek

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @dem ribbies: Thanks man! Sure, yeah I like that deal, helps now and Arrieta might end up being better than Darvish all of next year too. Love the price on Arrieta too, like it!

  54. Hot Rod

    JimmyBond says:
    (link)

    C-Mart is available in my league. I know the logical thing would be to drop Taijuan for CMart but I believe in the upside, and hey Kershaw-Madbum-Zimm-etc all got rocked this week too (side note, so much for all that “offense is gone in MLB” business…tons of high scoring games!)

    Is it just being plain greedy to want C-Mart as part of this batch too? H2H weekly pts league. I had Kazmir/Shoe as my ‘bubble’ names to drop even though I know they are ranked far higher than taijuan. We are capped at 8 SP otherwise I would drop a dud bat for him. Current roster (excluding my two RPs for their separate 2 RP slots):

    Arrieta
    Carrasco
    Greene
    Paxton
    McHugh
    Shoemaker
    Kazmir
    Taijuan Walker

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @JimmyBond: Hah yeah the aces getting pounded!

      H2H Pts I think you gotta get CMart and likely using him instead of your RP guys. The starters there tend to outscore em, and 2 start weeks CMart will crush. I think that should help push ya to lose Walker :)

    • Hot Rod

      JimmyBond says:
      (link)

      @JimmyBond: Thanks! I forgot to add that we only get 5 sp STARTS total (not IP), kind of an odd setup, so if I carry carrasco in an RP slot then I can’t use his stats. Anyhow, I think I will have to dwell on this a bit more…really appreciate the advice. I had carrasco in for a start last night so that one got burned, and instead left Greene sitting on my bench since I didn’t trust him vs the pirates – oops!

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @JimmyBond: Oh weird…. Yeah that is odd. Ugh yeah just unfortunate there, luckily he didn’t get really hurt. But Greene is nearing a must play no matter what these days! Glad to have a call going that right so far haha

  55. Scott says:
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    Hey JB, your last basketball article is not accepting any comments. It keeps trying to go to http://127.0.0.1

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Scott: Yeah sorry about that, some tech issues going on with hoops… Our guys are working on it!

  56. Banana says:
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    Nervous about starting Iwakuma today in H2H category league with QS’s instead of wins?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Banana: I woulda been nervous too, he’s doing OK so far… 3 ER but might get that QS

  57. Bill Lee says:
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    a guess when Carlos Rondon will be called up?

    thanks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Bill Lee: I’d guess late May

  58. al says:
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    Should I continue streaming Shoemaker’s spot? Just dropped Hutchinson yesterday for him and now these guys are still floating in FA: Hutchinson, J. Nelson, Greene, McCarthy, Norris, Hahn, Harang, Eovaldi, Cobb, Smyly, Bradley, Bailey … I think I should stream Greene or D. Norris today but don’t know who to drop?

    ESPN 10 Team H2H Points

    Hitter Scoring: HIT (+1), RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 1B (+1), 2B (+1), 3B (+2), HR (+3), BB (+1) SB (+1)
    Pitcher Scoring: WIN (+3), LOSS (-3), IP (+3), K (+1), BB (-1), SAVE (+3), ER (-2), HIT (-1), NH (+10) PF (+15)

    (1) C: Lucroy
    (1) 1B: Freeman
    (1) 2B: Kinsler
    (1) SS: Andrus
    (1) 3B: Donaldson
    (3) OF: A. Gordon, J. Heyward, M. Cabrera
    (2) UT: JD Martinez
    Bench: (Brantley)

    (4) SP: Scherzer, L. Lynn, P. Hughes, C. McHugh
    (3) RP: Chapman, Kimbrel, Grilli
    Bench: ( C. Martinez [SP/RP], Bauer, Paxton, Shoemaker)
    Bench Total: (5)

    DL (1): A. Rendon

    • al says:
      (link)

      @al: Oh it’s also important to note that’s it’s an ESPN league so Shoemaker isn’t RP eligible and Norris is only RP eligible…

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @al: Ah sorry i missed ya, and def not hindsight with me saying I woulda streamed Greene! Love him, what a start. I’d go off my ranks which I think is Lynn is the bottom guy

  59. Josh says:
    (link)

    I have Hammel and Nelson, drop one of them for Smyly? Or drop Ottavino?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Josh: If you’re desperate for saves, yeah I’d lose Hammel I think. But Ottavino is my first choice gone, I’m avoiding Rockies RP in 10 and 12ers most likely

  60. Scott says:
    (link)

    You would think Yordano would be an Ace…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Scott: Hah what you mean?

      • Scott says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Coz then he’d be Ace Ventura.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Scott: Hah, and if he gets tooo nervous and has a little bathroom accident on the mound, he’d be Ace Ventura:When Nature Calls

  61. The Wongest Yard says:
    (link)

    JB,

    This is Dungeons and Dragics from fantasy basketball. Love your pitching breakdowns (been reading them since last year). My pitching staff looks like this:

    Arrieta, Cole, Tyson Ross, Shoemaker, McCarthy, Hahn, Daniel Norris.

    I really only need 5 SP with our innings limit but sometimes I’ll pick and choose based on matchups. Several questions:

    What do you think of the staff?
    Would you flat out drop anyone just to stream?
    Also, Hutchinson was dropped. I have the #3 waiver priority. Would you use it or just try and scoop him in the morning without using it?– and if so, who would you lose?

    Thanks ahead of time buddy. I know these posts aren’t easy to put together. We all appreciate it.

    • The Wongest Yard says:
      (link)

      @The Wongest Yard:

      12 team standard roto btw.

      • The Wongest Yard says:
        (link)

        @The Wongest Yard:

        Latos was also dropped. Ok, I’m done haha.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @The Wongest Yard: Thanks so much man, good to see ya on baseball!

          Looks good to me! Love those top two. Nah, not going for Hutch, I’m not a big fan – wasn’t coming into the year and obviously not a good start. Latos I do think can be servicable, I’d likely risk adding him for Hahn.

          Yeah man, it’s a lot of stuff put in here, but pitching is my fav part of fantasy baseball, they’re fun to do!

  62. Yadier Damn Mind says:
    (link)

    Great write up JB. I’m about as excited about C-Mart than when I found out I didn’t have hep B. Just kidding! Really though, I don’t have hep b.

    Anyways, what are you thoughts on my pitching rotation in my 10 team h2h points?

    Matt Harvey
    Sonny Gray
    Jeff Samardizja
    Jacob deGrom
    Taiwan Walker/C-Mart
    RP-Koji Ueahra
    RP-Street/Kenley Jansen

    Thanks in advance

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Yadier Damn Mind: Hahaha, well I’m glad those antibiotics worked!

      Mmmmmm Harvey. Pretty nasty stuff, not huge on Gray or Shark but both will be solid. Like deGrom a lot. Should be nice staff for ya!

  63. Eric Bateman says:
    (link)

    OK JB…so we talked about Castro’s spot on my roster above.And tonight Toronto brings Castro in late in the 7th and back out in the 8th of a tie game. He wasnt exactly lights out and a throwing error by the catcher put the runner in scoring position but my concern is why was he out there in the 7th/8th if he is the closer anyway. Makes me think the switch back to Cecil is coming. I dont own Cecil, so which path would you recommend?

    I have Parnell stashed on the DL and have Chapman, Britton and Perkins(assuming the Twins ever need him). Do I hold Castro or drop him for Haap( who is the highest rated waiver arm available)?Or would you recommend adding a bat based on my roster below. I also have Swisher stashed on the DL but the bats available would be: Morse, D.Jennings(who’s flashed speed two days in a row), Eaton, Kiermaier, Byrd or Vargas. So basically which helps this roster the most, holding Castro, picking up Haap or adding a second bench bat to rotate?

    ( 5×5 HTH OBP league)
    Bats
    C McCann
    1B Freeman
    2B Kipnis
    3B Santana
    SS A.Ramirez
    OF Stanton
    OF Springer
    OF Soler
    OF Betts
    Util Pollock
    Util Avisail Garcia
    Util Lawrie
    Bench Semien
    DL 1B/DH Swisher

    Staff
    P Kluber
    P Odorizzi
    P Cole
    P Walker
    P Paxton
    SP Ventura
    SP S.Greene
    RP Chapman
    RP Britton
    Bench RP Perkins
    Bench RP Castro
    Bench SP McCarthy
    Bench SP D. Norris
    DL RP Parnell
    DL SP Billingsley

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Eric Bateman: Ugh, yeah my path right now is avoiding Blue Jays and Rockies RP. You’ve got 3 rock solid closers, plus Parnell waiting.

      H2H I definitely stream a ton of pitchers. I’d probably grab Jennings at this point, but keep that spot open for streaming

      • Eric Bateman says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Someone beat me to Jennings. T.Walker is getting lit up early again tonight is he droppable at this point or too early? Obviously no ones going to trade for him, I could replace him with Haap I suppose. Still have Castro but could drop him for Inciarte, Marsinick, Morse, Castellanos, Eaton. And what do you think is wrong with Eaton? He was a sleeper for many this offseason and has been bad thus far.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Eric Bateman: I wasn’t big on him, so sure I think he can go. Eaton’s lack of power and nowhere near elite speed had me pretty off the bandwagon, but the hits should start coming. Probably Morse for me of those hitters

          • Eric Bateman says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin: Thanks as always JB, you think Haap is a good replacement for Walker? I can always wait a day or two to see whats up with the Toronto closer situation before I drop Castro for a bat like Morse.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @Eric Bateman: Yeah I do, I think the 1 K was a little flukey and it’s a good matchup coming up at home vs TEX

              • Eric Bateman says:
                (link)

                @JB Gilpin: Well I flipped RP Castro for OF Span, you like that deal for me? Trying to get Jimmy Nelson for SP Norris and SP Walker but it isnt looking good. If it’s declined I’m going to drop Walker for Haap. Thanks for all the help.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
                  (link)

                  @Eric Bateman: Yeah I like that, that Blue Jays situation seems full committee. Any time man!

  64. Snarky Anklebiter says:
    (link)

    So, when your pitching staff is doing the complete opposite of what you expected, is that good or bad? I’m in first k/9, but dead last era and whip in 12 team roto, max innings league. Totally unexpected with this group:

    Arrieta, Iwakuma, Wood, Hughes, McCarthy, Fiers

    How long do I let them keep destroying my ratios?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Snarky Anklebiter: That’s definitely not a bad staff… Iwakuma I was worried about heading into the year, and Hughes I’m not huge on, but the rest of the guys should be fine. It’s only been 2 starts for most of them, only one for Fiers, it’s so so early I wouldn’t do anything drastic

  65. los locos says:
    (link)

    JB, someone just dropped Yu Darvish in a 10 team keeper league.. What are your thoughts? I have 1st pick on waivers?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @los locos: Ehhhh, how many do you keep year to year? I’m iffy on his upside, since he won’t help until like mid next-year

      • los locos says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Total of 7 keepers yearly… I can keep either 4 pitchers, or 3 hitters.. or vice versa.

        My staff now:
        Kershaw
        Strausburg
        Paxton
        Hutchinson
        Bauer
        Fiers
        Shoemaker

        We have 1 DL spot, currently occupied by Hunter Pence

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @los locos: Meh, yeah I mean your #3 pitcher spot could end up being Darvish, but I doubt he’s back before the J months next year. Not huge on him with 7 keepers

  66. los locos says:
    (link)

    Danny Salazar getting the call… Where would you rank him?

    • Hot Rod

      JimmyBond says:
      (link)

      @los locos: answer up above (just search ‘salazar’ on page)
      “Good question, I had [Salazar] at 52 in February. Definitely docked right now if he was called up tomorrow because he couldn’t even crack the opening day rotation. 70s sounds about right”

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @los locos: @JimmyBond: Yeah and I’m still not sure he’ll crack the ranks for next Monday since they very easily could send him back down with Carrasco pushed a day and I think they want to keep McAllister in the rotation… Luckily I’ll have some time before a definitive answer haha

  67. Hot Rod

    JimmyBond says:
    (link)

    since this is the pitching page, I will share humbly that I ignored Grey’s advice (and my own ‘guru’ friend’s advice) and started Walker instead of McHugh yesterday. At my serious peril. Especially since it was the league where I get just 5 SP starts, 1 of which had been knocked out by Carrasco’s 8 pitches. But anyhow, fortune favors the bold…or so I thought. On the bright side, CMart was still available so I dumped Taijuan midway through the game and grabbed him. I’m feeling good about this lineup in this H2H points league: Arrieta, Carrasco, McHugh, Paxton, Shoemaker, Greene, Kazmir, and now C-Mart. Even if I can only pick the best 5 starts of the week for them (thanks Streamonator!)

    I also want to add, thanks very much for the awesome podcast, I hope you keep it up through the season. I shared it with my ‘guru’ friend too even though we are both in a separate yahoo H2H weekly roto league, so the hot tips will have to be acted upon by whoever listens first! The podcast intro song is one crazy earworm too that I commonly find myself singing in the days after I listen… “You like fantasy sports and sarcasm…”

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @JimmyBond: Ack yeah that one hurts… Man, McHugh looked so much better than that debut. Nice on the CMart add! Lookin like a nasty staff, those bottom 5 before CMart are on tons of my teams.

      We definitely will be Podding all year! I’m missing a few in August, but other than that, we’ll be truckin’. Yeah the track is sick, our friends Symphony of Nine did that a while back: http://www.symphonyofnine.com/

  68. Scott says:
    (link)

    With Gee sucking, does Syndergaard move up? Or did you already take that into account?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Scott: It’s already been factored in, I still think it’ll be May-ish. I might not have had him ranked as well pre-Wheeler Tommy John, but with one of their best knocked out I liked the upside for an earlier callup

  69. dem ribbies says:
    (link)

    Please talk me off the cliff’s edge. Bout to dump Pax. That was some 2 category losing ratio-busting awfulness. At least most of those runs weren’t earned. but OMG

    • dem ribbies says:
      (link)

      @dem ribbies: Ok, I looked over the cliff and saw Bartolo Colon. Maybe I’ll see how he fares vs MIN first. ; )

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @dem ribbies: Hah, yeah well I mention him in the upcoming Pitcher post today, and in that blow up inning – two infield singles as well. but apparently his velo was down… He didn’t have a Spring, so I’m not too displeased with a slow start, then he’s got MIN like you said then @HOU the next two. Waiting to see on those.

  70. los locos says:
    (link)

    just like dem ribbles… Paxton hasn’t look good in his starts… Colon has put together a nice season thus far. AJ Burnett is looking like his 2012-13 season.. i dropped Huthinson after his last start and picked up McCarthy. So tell me what I should I do with Paxton. What about this Nate Karns pitcher, any thoughts on him…?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @los locos: Yeah I think he’s gonna be better, as I wrote above. Colon I still couldn’t rank, so low an upside. Def like the McCarthy move. Hold Pax for the next two starts, Karns is walking a ton of people… Meh, Smyly and Cobb both coming back could push some people around

      • los locos says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: AJ Burnett is reminding me of the 2012-13 season… Well I didn’t drop Pax yet.. Not a whole lot on waivers with upside like him. Just Burnett and Colon.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @los locos: Yeah he does look OK, but I had him ranked in the OK-range all along, so would need a little more prolonged goodness to buy full in on AJ. Def holding tight there

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