Let’s follow up on a post of mine from a few weeks ago. Before Spring Training kicked off, I took a quick look at two players – Christian Yelich and Byron Buxton – with differences between Rudy’s Player Rater for 15-team NFBC leagues and NFBC ADP data.

It was easy to get carried away with Yelich and Buxton, but for this version I’ll expand out to four players.

If you’re interested in taking a look at the differentials I’ll be using, feel free to navigate to this google sheet I made and will be using as reference. The NFBC data is from drafts between 2/15/2018 and 3/3/2018, about 100 drafts in total. I’ll reiterate once again that this isn’t exactly a one-for-one comparison, as the numbers I’m using for Rudy’s rankings are purely on ranked dollar-value output, while NFBC data is where the player is actually being drafted. The merit here is highlighting standouts between the two, as opposed to relying on one as the true indicator of a given player (…Rudy’s projections are essentially gospel for me). I’ll also focus on players inside the top 200 overall and those whom Razzball is higher than NFBC ADP on. These should be some of your value targets if you’re a faithful Razzballer.

The 2018 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join with prizes! All the exclamation points!

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Tue 8/5
ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | OAK | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH

Finally – stuff is happening! Now that there have actually been some meaningful free agent signings, injury news (nooooo, Brent Honeywell!), and we’re getting reports out of camps, it’s time to take a fresh look at a handful of situations and players within the deep-league landscape. I’m writing this just before actual spring training games start, so this will be my last chance to evaluate situations before my head is pelted with box scores and video highlights, which will no doubt cloud my judgment a bit whether I want them to or not. And since we’re talking about AL-only, NL-only, and other deep leagues, we won’t be discussing how J.D. Martinez or Yu Darvish’s values have changed. Nope, we’re all about less mainstream, but just as super-sexy topics, like how the Eric Hosmer signing might affect deep-league relevant guys like Jose Pirela. C’mon… deep-league players can be super sexy, too!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Oakland, while generally being seen as a place where power hitters go to be average, certainly has a few good OPSers hitting there in 2018. First off, there’s Khris Davis, but you already know about him, so let’s talk about two lesser knowns: Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. I googled the two of them and the first article that came up was from last September on Forbes. Until this moment, I had no idea Forbes cared about sports other than to rank the values of the teams and the net worth of their owners. Color me surprised (I like to think of surprised as a day-glo bluish color), so surprised that Forbes has a sportswriter and that they agree with me (or really it is me that agrees with them…great ideas all around)! The Matts will be providing some OPS fantasy goodness this season and lets look at why, shall we?

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Usually, as one does, I type with my fingers.  Hunt and peck with mostly the index’ers, but definitely fingers all the way.  I’m so pumped up going for the win this year I’m typing up this post with both fists.  WE MUST WIN!  BY WE I MEAN ME!  BY ME I MEAN I, IF “I” WAS SUPPOSED TO BE USED IN THAT SENTENCE INSTEAD OF ME; I DON’T KNOW, AND AM TOO HYPED UP TO LOOK INTO IT, IN FACT, THIS SENTENCE IS KINDA KILLING MY HYPE BY EVEN DISCUSSING GRAMMAR.  GRAMMAR BOO!  WINNING THIS LEAGUE YAY!  Actually using my fists is not enough.  I will now type up this post by banging my forehead on the keyboard.  ABCJIVS1I7$  Damn, that didn’t work so well.  Maybe I’ll try my nose.  Hekko, froend.  Ugh, that didn’t work either.  Okay, I’m gonna use my fingers again, but I’m just as pumped up.  RAWR!  Anyway, here’s my Yahoo Friends & Family team, it’s a 15-team, mixed league:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Draft This: Marcus Semien, OAK | Not That: Elvis Andrus, TEX

I’m trying to see if even the hate I’m about to receive is bigger in Texas. Let me get this one out of the way first that should be obvious to everyone — if you think Elvis Andrus is hitting 20 HR in a season again you are a fool on a fool’s journey. In his previous 8 major league season he averaged 4.375 HRs. His career HR/FB rate going into 2017 was 5.1%. He blew that away with an 11.6% mark in 2017. Marcus Semien on the other hand has a 27 HR season already under his belt in 2016 and would’ve reached 20 HR again in 2017 if it wasn’t for missing 81 games with a broken wrist at the beginning of the season. Wrist injuries normally should make you nervous, but Semien returned in July and is now a full year removed from the injury. Semien has legit 20+ HR power after hitting over 20 in three of his four seasons before 2017.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Welcome to Razzball’s 2018 team previews. Over the next couple of months, we’ll be previewing all of the teams and talking to writers who represent those teams around the web. We want to provide the best and most in-depth fantasy projections to go along with the asking the most useful questions to those who know their teams best. We want to talk about the players in the first half of your draft and also the deep sleepers that make you log into google and start watching Midwest Single-A ball for hours. Just kidding, don’t do that, hopefully we don’t go that far…

It is truly incredible to look at this roster and remember that the Royals won the World Series in 2015. Just three years later, they will contend for the worst record in baseball. Without any impact prospects knocking on the door, it’s looking like a slow rebuild is in order. They’ll get some compensatory picks for their big free agents who have left the team to sign elsewhere, so that should help. As of this moment Mike Moustakas still remains without a team, but Lorenzo Cain found a home with the upstart Brewers and Eric Hosmer signed a massive 8-year deal with the downstart Padres. There is still some fantasy goodness to be had on this roster though, and I asked Mike Engel of BP Kansas City to help us parse out what’s worth pursuing and what isn’t.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s a good time to be a Yankees fan. There’s an exciting up and coming squad in the Bronx, a farm system stock full of major league ready reinforcements at positions of need. There’s far off high upside bats and high octane teenage arms. Say what you will about my New England zip code, it’s difficult to not appreciate what Cashman & Co. have done in a few short years. Bravo! Though this next statement might make “spit” a permanent ingredient of my morning java at my local cafe, I’ll let it fly anyway. The Yankees were my favorite team to watch in 2017, and I can’t imagine that changes much with Stanton, Gleyber, Andujar, and others now in tow. “Watchability” aside this is one of the top farm systems in all of baseball. They pair high end talent, close to the majors impact, with extreme depth. As I mentioned in my Dodgers Preview, financial might doesn’t just buy you free agents, it buys you the best in scouting and resources. The Yankees fortunately/unfortunately have that in spades. Enough of the Yankee ball washing, let’s get into their top 200 prospects, kidding…kinda. It’s the New York Yankees Top Prospects for 2018.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

We all have “what ifs” in our lives. What if I was a few inches taller? You’d probably be writing about me right now, explaining why Grey has me outside the top 80 starting pitchers for this year. What if any other team drafted Mike Trout in that first round? He may have actually won a playoff game. These “what if” moments don’t come with second chances. They are a moment in time that cannot be changed. Some people are still in their “what if” moment trying to ensure that they come out on the right side of history.

The 2018 season might be Greg Bird’s third chance. First, he came up in August of 2015 and had a promising premier. In 2016, Bird missed the whole season recovering from right labrum surgery. Second, in 2017, he was back; another chance to start his career. After a month of misery the Yankees decided to put him down. Actually, he just bruised his right ankle. That’s nothing to worry about. He’ll take a few weeks off and be right back. Bird missed all of May, June, July and most of August before returning in September. Bird can’t seem to stay on the field due to injuries major and minor. However, in 2018 Bird is ready to take on his dreaded “what if.” A young highly touted prospect succumbing to injury after injury is a classic tale of sports tragedy, but Bird is ready to break out of his cage.

Evaluating Bird is a bit more difficult than the other players I have looked into already, since he has little play experience. He had a short stint as a rookie in 2015, but that was so long ago and before missing an entire season due to injury. The start of 2017 was similar. It was only a few games and the first few after missing a whole season. I would like to dig into just his return in 2017 and into the playoffs as that has been his most recent and consistent play time. It should be the most representative of future impact.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Welcome to Razzball’s 2018 team previews. Over the next couple of months, we’ll be previewing all of the teams and talking to writers who represent those teams around the web. We want to provide the best and most in-depth fantasy projections to go along with the asking the most useful questions to those who know their teams best. We want to talk about the players in the first half of your draft and also the deep sleepers that make you log into google and start watching Midwest Single-A ball for hours. Just kidding, don’t do that, hopefully we don’t go that far…

The Chicago Cubs are coming off of three straight NLCS appearances and one World Series title. The bats didn’t really get going in the first half of the season in 2017 and there was no way that the starting pitching was going to be as effective in 2017 as it was in 2016. Still, the Cubs had too much all star power on the roster not to be in the thick of it throughout October. All of the manager speak and clubhouse talk points to a revamped desire to win and the off season moves points towards the same mood from the front office. The Cubs wanted to spice up the rotation so they added Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Morrow, and a guy named Yu Darvish. To take a little, you also have to give a little. Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis will not be returning next season. I talked to Alex Patt from Cubbies Crib about what to expect from this upcoming Cubs season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s the show the entire off-season has been building toward. It’s the Jeter retirement project, complete with young hotties. Not necessarily the young hotties you’re familiar with, because these are… dudes. Remade almost seems like an understatement for this system which has long been the dregs of MLB’s minor leagues. Now they feature a top 25 talent in Lewis Brinson, a top 50 bat with massive upside in Monte Harrison, arms of all types, and some decent depth pieces. It’s a new day in Miami, not necessarily a better day, but a new one. They have South Beach, they’re good. Finally, please make sure to support our sponsor by heading over to RotoWear.com and entering promo code “SAGNOF” for 20% off the highest quality t-shirts in the fantasy sports game. It’s the latest edition of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Prospect Podcast:

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Once again, you spoke and we listened.  Razzball really is the fantasy baseball site of the people, for the people.  Thanks to commenter “howtathor” who said he would much rather join a league called “Tehol is a Sexual Panther” than one titled, “RCL #27”, or something along those lines.  We’ve now added a “Play With” column to the Razzball Commenter Leagues sign-up sheet.  Now, when perusing for an RCL to join, you can scan for your favorite writer (Dreamy Lance perhaps?) or your favorite easy target (Tehol perhaps?) or maybe your favorite angry commenter (Cram It).  Either way, hopefully it drives you to sign up for another league or two.  Go ahead and skip to the end of this post to check it out, pitching strategy will be here when you get back.

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Late steals, or “cheeky swipes” as they call it across the ocean, are sometimes hard to find late in drafts. Well not hard to find just takes some digging and speculation.  The stolen base stat is a precipitously dying stat.  I mean, why steal a base when you can just hit a homerun?  Or that is the growing trend of the baseball thievery…  Last year 83 players stole 10 or more bases.  That number hasn’t really differed much in the last few years, the high in 2015 and the low being in 2016 of 79.  So while overall steals are down, the number in between the leader and the low end is just increasing in smaller increments.  So with the SAGNOF theory, saves and steals are the afterthought come draft day.  Not completely forgotten about or disregarded.  Just valued at a lower premium based on so many players being low category contributors across the board.  Sneak steals on draft day and getting the most out of your squeeze per investment into draft picks is the name of the game.  Paying a premium for the big hitting steals guys like Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon and obvious top-5 overall pick in Trea Turner are all well and good, but at what cost in relation to their draft pick?  So the helpfulness of this post is to look at value according to ADP and the steals value the will give our team come opening day in the counting stat department.  Most of the players with steal appeal are MI eligible and on draft day, if you miss out early, it seems like the best place to look for straight SAGNOF satisfaction.

Here is a table of steals, caught stealing, and total steals across all of the MLB for the last five years so you didn’t think I was lying to you about the accumulation factors with SB’s…

Please, blog, may I have some more?