Welcome back, baseball — oh, how I missed you! Today we’re welcomed back with a 14-game main slate on FanDuel. I’m not sure if anyone heard the big news, but the Manny Machado rental agreement drama finally came to an end, with the slugger landing with the Dodgers. We might talk about him a little more later, but I want to focus on Baltimore. Even with Machado, Baltimore was 7th worst in K% and 3rd worst in wOBA. Allow me to introduce to you my minimum-priced SP ($5,500), Sam Gaviglio, who faces the new Machado-less Orioles. On the season, Sammy G’s been a little up and down with a 4.58 ERA, but a 4.01 SIERA, and of the 57 innings he’s thrown this year, 30.2 have been against the Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, and Nationals. I’m excited to see what Gaviglio can do versus an easier opponent, and at this price ($5,500), you can fit in whatever stacks you want. Let’s take a look at the rest of the slate.
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Trevor Bauer, SP: $12,200 – Wanna go the opposite end of the universe from Sammy G? This is your boy. He’s a stud, you don’t need me to tell you that. He also faces a Rangers team that strikes out at a 25.3% clip vs RHP. Should be a rock-solid cash game play.
Kyle Gibson, SP: $8,600 – Gibson’s been decent in his own right, and he faces a Royals team that is bottom 5 on the year in wOBA and has seen their K% increase to 23.2% over the last 90 days.
Jake Arrieta, SP: $8,000 – I view Arrieta as a solid lower upside, higher floor cash game play. Faces the Padres (dead last in wOBA and K% vs RHP), and while he doesn’t really strike a lot of batters out, he does a really good job of limiting hard contact.
Danny Duffy, SP: $7,500 – Earlier in the season I was in full-on stay-away mode with Duffy, but he’s looked impressive of late in the right situation. Minnesota has really struggled vs LHPs this year, and on 7/9, Duffy gave them fits, going 6 shutout innings with 9 Ks.
Jake Bauers, 1B: $3,300 – Picking on Dan Straily, who gives up a 47.1% hard hit rate and a 38.8% line drive rate to LHBs, is an easy decision, right? Keep an eye on the Rays lineup, and if Ji-Man Choi is in there, I love him for $2,200.
Matt Olson, 1B: $3,100 – Oakland bats have been much better vs RHPs than lefties, and Dereck Rodriguez has given up a 45.6% hard hit rate vs LHBs. Olson has that double-dong upside, and I really like a couple other A’s bats that you could stack up.
Steve Pearce, 1B: $3,300 – Pearce was en fuego vs LHPs before getting hit on the shin by former teammate JA Happ. Pearce played in the Red Sox’s last game before the All Star break, so expect him in the lineup today against Matt Boyd. However, keep an eye on the weather in this game, as there are thunderstorms projected.
Alen Hanson, 2B: $2,300 – Hanson has crushed righties (.284 ISO, .396 wOBA), and while Edwin Jackson has been good since he seemingly found the Sorcerer’s Stone on his 22nd MLB team, I’m going out on a limb and saying Jackson will not end the year with a sparkly 2.59 ERA.
Jed Lowrie, 2B: $3,300 – See Matt Olson. Also, Lowrie has a .241 ISO and .382 wOBA vs RHPs.
Jose Ramirez, 3B: $4,800 – HOT TAKE! Jose’s a stud. If you’re using Sammy G in a GPP, you’re doing it to pay up for Ramirez and his studly infield teammate. Cleveland has the highest implied run total on the slate.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,000 – Small sample BVP, but Seager is 8/22 off James Shields in his career with 3 HRs and 4 BBs.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $4,500 – I forgot to mention in the Jose Ramirez blurb that the Indians face Martin Perez. Perez has a 7.67 ERA this year.
Manny Machado, SS: $4,200 – In game 1 with the Dodgers, Machado gets to face Wade Miley in Milwaukee. I’m excited to see what Machado can do with actual decent hitters around him.
Khris Davis, OF: $3,400 – Davis actually hits righties better than lefties, and with his power upside, he’s a must-have in any Oakland stack.
Brandon Nimmo, OF: $3,200 – The Mets’ lineup has not been very scary this year, but Nimmo has been pretty decent leading off (.258 ISO, .388 wOBA). He also gets a park upgrade and faces Domingo German, who’s given up a .255 ISO and .344 wOBA to LHBs.
Adam Eaton, OF: $2,900 – Eaton was heating up leading into the break, and this is simply too cheap for the Nats’ leadoff man.
Dustin Fowler, OF: $2,200 – Keep an eye on the lineup here, but Fowler has led off in the past vs RHPs. Super cheap add to your Oakland stack, if that’s what you’re rolling with today.
Brandon Guyer, OF: $2,000 – Guyer’s a lefty masher and faces the above-mentioned Martin Perez. He usually bats 5th for the Tribe vs LHPs.
Rajai Davis, OF: $2,000 – Part deux of the Indians’ cheap hitters vs LHP. Davis bats 9th, but has multiple SB upside.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
A couple spots tonight with some potential rain in the Boston/Detroit and Pittsburgh/Cincinnati games, and chance of thunderstorms for St. Louis/Chicago Cubs and LA/Milwaukee. Also, the temperature at first pitch is 105 degrees for the Cleveland/Texas game.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Cleveland and Seattle are the two biggest favorites tonight at around -195 each. No Coors on the slate, and no totals in double digits today. The Cleveland/Texas game has the highest total on the slate at 9.5 runs, followed by a quartet of 9 run games (Pitt/Cin, Bal/Tor, Minn/KC, SF/Oak). Since I personally like both SPs in the Minn/KC game, I’m taking the under there.
