Shh…That was what I was saying yesterday. I was like a librarian with my index finger pressed to my collagen-filled lips. I was lowering the shades of my house hoping no one passing by would see how well Luis Severino was pitching. My phone rang; it was a telemarketer, and I talked to them for 45 minutes because I knew if they were talking to me, then they couldn’t be watching Luis Severino and getting excited for him for 2023 fantasy. One less person who’s going to be get all Jazzy Jeff’d for Luis Severino. I don’t need people seeing that! Yesterday, Luis Severino went 7 IP, 0 ER, zero hits, 1 walk, 7 Ks, ERA at 3.18, as he was throwing speedballs by everyone, just peppering 98 to 100 MPH fastballs into the 7th inning, like it was nothing. For 2023 fantasy, Luis Severino will be going around the number three fantasy starters, and be on my short list for guys who can be an ace. I’m already thinking about the Luis Severino sleeper. I wrote a Jordan Montgomery sleeper last year, so being on the Yankees won’t preclude that possibility. Severino’s going to get all that 2023 shine! Now, that you’ve read this, set fire to your computer so no one else can read this and know how good Severino was yesterday. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Giancarlo Stanton – 1-for-2 and his 30th homer. Aight, Imma let you finish, but what did Aaron Judge do? 1-for-4 and now hitting .311. Luis Arraez, pulling a Jose Reyes, is sitting out with the AL batting title, so it’s going to be hard for Judge to get the Triple Crown. If you’re Aaron Judge (already laughable but hear me out), and you’ve wrapped up the Triple Crown, but are still sitting on 61, do you take another at-bat to go for 62, and risk losing the batting title?
Martin Perez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks, ERA at 2.89. Yesterday, he was inducing double plays even if the bases were empty. Honestly, watching how he induced so much weak contact, I kinda saw the attraction. I’m coming around just in time for him to burn me so bad next year.
Scott Effross – 1 IP, 0 ER, and his 4th save, ERA at 2.54. The $200 million Yanks rocking this guy as their closer is just an echoing chef’s kiss. Can’t wait for the playoffs when he comes in to close games. The good news is Yankees fans have a built in curse to scream at him.
Anthony Rendon – 0-for-2 as he was activated. Angels should make a deal with Rendon. If he wants to play, he has to pay for the at-bats. So, they can pay him to do nothing — as they’ve been doing for years — or he pays them to hit. Let’s see if he really wants to play.
Miguel Rojas – Will undergo wrist surgery. He ends the year with a 6/9 statline, which isn’t nearly as sexy as it looks.
Jesus Luzardo – 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 12 Ks, ERA at 3.32. Marlins out here telling people Bruce Willis was dead the whole time. Ya know, playing spoiler. I just thought of something sad; Bruce Willis is going to be gone, and we’re going to be able to watch him in The Sixth Sense playing dead. Creep City!
Bryan De La Cruz – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 3 RBIs and his 13th homer, 2nd homer this week, and hot schnmotato and, yes, he’s exactly the kind of guy I’m going to like a little too much next year.
Triston McKenzie – 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 2.96. I cannot wait for the 127-pound Strong Bean McKenzie throwing in the playoffs with a national audience. Peoples’ minds always blow the first time they see a praying mantis throw a fastball.
Evan Longoria – Out for the year with a fractured thumb. Possibly the worst possible injury for him, because he’s gonna need that thumb to hitch out of town.
Joe Musgrove – 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks, ERA at 2.93. If I’m the Padres, I’m saving anything else wonderful from their starters for the playoffs, and throwing like six relievers the next two days. Or I guess Sean Manaea is as good as throwing garbage to wolves.
Tony Gonsolin – 2 IP, 1 ER, ERA at 2.14 as he was activated from the IL. Ha! Regression! Finally!
Hunter Renfroe – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 29th homer. You know what Scooby Doo would say, “Please get to 30 homers!” Wait, that’s not right.
Christian Yelich – 2-for-4, 2 runs and his 14th homer. Just when the Brewers needed it to get eliminated! (Though, I guess if he hit 40 homers, and was MVP-like again, they could’ve used that more, maybe.)
Kyle Schwarber – 2-for-3 and his 45th and 46th homer. It’s Schwammer time during the month of Schwtober!
Bryson Stott – 3-for-3 and his 10th homer, and he’s been smoking hot lately. Excuse me, Stott schmotato alert!
Aaron Nola – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, zero walks, 9 Ks, ERA at 3.25. Amongst other things, Bdon and I pant over how much we’re going to like Nola next year on this week’s podcast.
Bailey Ober – 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 3.21. It’s Schwtober, we established that. It’s not Obertober. Do you need a new calendar?
Rich Hill – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 4.27. Not bad for a guy who first learned the game from Abner Doubleday.
Matt Barnes – 1 IP, 0 ER, ERA at 4.42, as he gets his 7th save. Addressing this from all fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) to the Red Sox, please sign a closer this offseason.
Wander Franco – 3-for-4 and his 6th homer. Comatose Fantasy Baseball Guy, “Oh, man, how long was I knocked out? Wait, before you answer, Wander Franco just homered?! Six already?! What’s it, the first week of May? Is it still April?! Hey, where’s everyone going?”
Vidal Brujan – 0-for-4 as he was recalled from the minors. He helped lead the Triple-A Durham Bulls to their 2nd straight Triple-A National Championship. Not to rain on the parade in downtown Durham, but this is deceptively terrible news. It’s like being in the minors long enough to go 30/30. Um, great, but also, why are you in the minors long enough to achieve anything there?
Tyler Glasnow – 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER, ERA at 1.35. Gonna draft Glasnow and Severino in the same league next year and people are going to say it’s too risky, like next year is this year.
Hayden Wesneski – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 2.18 vs. Hunter Greene – 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 8 Ks, ERA at 4.44. Don’t even know who’s starting today and tomorrow for the Cubs and Reds, but that’s a perfect Streamonator type move, because these are two teams who quit four months ago. When they’re checked out, you check in!
Starling Marte – Remains without a timetable. Has he tried Ikea? I got a little timetable there to place my alarm clock. It’s pretty sleek, and only took me five hours to put together.
Nelson Cruz – He saids he plans on playing next year. That’s the kind of commitment I love to see. Let’s get him in an early draft with us and the Razzball crew! Wait, he plans on playing fantasy baseball or real baseball? Real?! Oh, Nelson, come on. This is why I’m for term limits.
Jack Suwinski – 1-for-2 and his 19th homer. This might be trying to fit a schmotato peg in a schmohawk hole, but Suwinski is the type to hit homers in multiple games in a row.
Albert Pujols – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs and his 24th homer, 703 homers and takes sole possession of 2nd on the career RBIs list. Now has one more homer since August 14th than Aaron Judge (16 homers), and this one is legit hilarious: Pujols has 17 homers since August 10. The White Sox team leader has 17.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 1-for-3 and his 32nd homer, hitting .273. Cake Batter doesn’t even have 100 RBIs. Not entirely under his control, but that’s one way to take a step back.
Jose Berrios – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks, ERA at 5.23. *stops cutting out magazine letters for a second* “Ma, Berrios had one good start this year, are we still going to kidnap him for crimes he committed against our fantasy team?”
Felix Bautista – Hit the 15-day IL. Smart, just in case twelve magical days appear between Tuesday and Wednesday. If the O’s get themselves in position for a save, it should be Dillon Tate’s job.
Javier Baez – 1-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 17th homer, and 2nd homer in the last four games. Hey, homey, you can hit 30 homers in the last two games and I still will never draft you again.
Julio Rodriguez – 3-for-4, 1 run, 1 RBI as he was activated from the IL. The Word of the Day is coalesce, as in, “Juan Soto went from being Sexy Dr. Pepper to Cola-Less; please Jul-Rod save my season.”
O well….. link doesn’t work to article about Oscar “Sponge-pants” Gonzalez’s power no longer a secret. Feeling like 25 might be the under?
More power he shows in postseason less of a secret it’s gonna be too
This question might be too little, too late for tonight, but I have one move left and I need a stolen base or two.
Are there any teams (or players) who will still be swiping bags tomorrow? Should I target a Padre (Kim?) or a Phillie (Stott?)? Or someone else who has been recently swipe-happy (McCarthy, Baddoo, Estrada, Hamilton?)???
Verlander is going to be a force in the playoffs, watch out AL
Please do not put Carrasco in your top 100 next year. I hope to never see that name again mentioned with fantasy baseball. He is trying to cost me the championship this week! Ugh. And the Robot loved both of these starts.
Ha, yeah, Riley Adams knocked him out of today’s game, was brutal with the lead
The Brewers Sept and Oct schedule included games with the following opponents:
I also read that their bullpen allowed the winning run to score in 11 games in the 8th inning or later after the Hader trade. 15 total blown saves since the Hader trade (Aug 1). Not that Hader was great in SD, but man that is rough.
Hader would’ve kept Williams in the 8th, and maybe he would’ve been better in Milwaukee…That trade absolutely screwed them
Yes it did. The only positive is that they cut payroll but that is reaching.
How many innings to expect from Verlander and Cole tonight?
5-ish for both…Marco Gonzales is going as many as he can tomorrow
Dammit you was right Jrod sits game one!
Damn, I didn’t want to be right
He’s gotta start game two yes?
I’d think so
Adolis now with a 25/25/100 season, sure glad all the experts said to sell lol I was with ya from the start on this one, seemed like an easy get all the shares you can guy. Still going to be undervalued next year too I’ll bet
Yeah, he’s gonna be undersold by people next year, absolutely 100% guaranteed
Oh man I need that!
Man, it’s so awesome that after going 21-1-1 and finishing 25 games ahead of second place, I’m losing 6-5 with two days to go with a SLG 30 points lower than my seasonal OBP.
Are you starting doubleheader Meneses @NYM v. Carrasco/Walker over Ohtani @OAK v. Irvin? Only other spots he slots in would be other doubleheader options Alonso and J.Rod.
Joey over Ohtani, yes
Thanks for the advice as always! Here’s hoping Joey doesn’t get rained out!
Sigh, ok, how about DH JRod not starting game 1 vs. Ohtani? Gotta be Ohtani I guess…
Thank you for all of your help, as always. I (finally) won my most competitive fantasy league this year and definitely have you to thank for transforming my way of thinking, and for providing answers to questions throughout the year. Can’t wait to see what 2023 has in store for all of us.
My only other comment today…I assume based on your write-up that having Luis Severino stashed on my IL as a round 30 keeper sounds like a no brainer to you? I have other guys like Framber and Wheeler at round 5 or 6 values, but the FA/round 30 value seems pretty insane.
Nice! That’s awesome! Congrats! That is a no brainer, yeah
So the Phills have nothing to play for today since they clinched and celebrated last night (insert photo of Ranger shotgunning beers) With all that said there’s no way Ranger goes more than 5IP @HOU today right?
I’d bet on 3 IP or less
Domingo German @TEX tomorrow, do you think they let him go 6+ because the Yanks have so much time off before they start the playoffs it won’t make much sense to limit him? They let Severino go 7 last night so maybe that’s an indicator?
Yes, German will throw 6 if he can
1. is it crazy to play Eric Haase of Detroit hoping that he will play both games rather than play Amed Rosario?
2. i was playing Oswaldo Cabrera in RF rather than Luis Rengifo, Joey Menessa or Josh Naylor. Do you agree?
thanks so much!!
1. Not crazy, go Haase
I can stream 1 more pitcher. My options are Lauer, Taillon, Walker, Carrasco, Hudson or Ed. Rod? We are neck and neck in strikeouts and Wins.
No idea of their matchups…Maybe EdRod
Lauer vs. Arizona
Walker vs. Nationals
Carrasco vs. Nationals
Taillon @ Rangers
Hudson @ Pittsburgh
Ed. Rod @ Seattle
Carrasco at home sounds good
SON has George Kirby starting the next 2 days. 3 starts in a row, what a guy!
Haha, I’m sure it’ll update
Was LeMahieu pulled with an injury yesterday? He’s not starting the first game. Debating is I put Jose Miranda in for him or is he likely to play game 2?
Put in Miranda
I was just thinking it is a little weird we only had one no-hitter (non-combined) this season
Even more bizarre if you see the comment below about all the no hitters where pitchers got pulled
Last two days of h2h. Tied at 5-5, but he has the tiebreaker. I’m ahead in 4 out of 5 pitching categories (all but wins) and trying to poach SBs to eke out a 6-4 win.
Here’s the rub: I can throw one more starter out there between today and tomorrow: Taijuan. He can throw three more (Rodon, German, Kelly) and I think he has one more add left. I’m up by 40 strikeouts, ahead on ERA by 2 points, and ahead on WHIP by about 0.15. Do I send Taijuan out there today or bench him, and I guess same question for my two closers, Clase and Jansen?
Rodon is done for year
You don’t need saves? Bench them all
Yes bench them. Its the hardest move in fantasy but often times the smartest.
I’m up in saves 5-2. He has Barlow, Hader, and Finnegan. So…if I bench everyone I need those three dudes to not add up to 3 saves between today and tomorrow (in 7 games total because Nats play a doubleheader today).
Don’t bench your closers.
His three closers are more likely to hurt ratios than yours.
Ah, okay, but if he gets two today, you can readjust tomorrow and bring in your closers, right?
Yes, it’s a daily league. That said since my closers are Clase and Jansen, there’s a good chance they both sit tomorrow if their teams are playing for nothing. So I’m leaning towards starting my closers because they **probably** can’t cost me ERA or Whip even with one bad outing unless his guys are dealing no-hitter type stuff?
Okay, then go for it, prolly fine
One of my favorite parts of last evening’s baseball was when Bill Schroeder, color guy for the Brewers, watched Corbin Carroll get plunked in the head with a Brent Suter fastball. Suter was visibly upset.
Schroeder remarked, “When a batter gets hit in the head, it’s just as bad for the pitcher.”
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the guy getting hit in the head with a baseball is undoubtedly worse off than the guy throwing it.
HAHA, yeah, maybe a tadless bad, just a smidge
Also, thanks for all your input on end of the year strategy for one of my teams yesterday.
No problem, hope it’s working!
Eh, kinda. The advice and strategy are sound, but that by no means guarantees positive outcomes. Still got my 2 save lead, my whip lead is .017 now, and I trail by one win.
In order for me to lose, the second place team needs to:
Beat the team he is tied with in HR’s. Then, make up 40 total bases against an abandoned team, 5 saves, or 27 RBIs. He needs to make up .007 in BA and .017 in whip.
I would also need to lose my 1 steal lead, my .017 whip lead, or my 2 save lead.
I’m definitely the favorite, but I have had such obscenely bad luck in that league, compared to my opponent’s obscenely good luck, that I’m not taking anything for granted.
I generally don’t like to ascribe the good performances of other managers to luck, but when you are streaming Chad Kuhl at Coors and getting great starts, and needing RBIs and you pick up Jon Berti who knocks in 3 for you, that’s luck.
Yeah, hard to account for luck, but I’d feel pretty good if I were you right now
A) Please rank the following pitchers for next year and let me know if any are in the Top 50. I’ll do my rankings.
B) Please rank these relievers based on talent alone….saves and holds matter, but efficiency works too.
Forgot to say, wins don’t matter.
Top 50 overall? Or top 50 SPs?
None are top 50 — Springs, Anderson, Stroman, Manaea
Top 60? 80? Just curious. Points league.
Top 60 or 80 what? Overall? Or starters?
Sorry, I meant to say starters. Are any of them top 50 or lower? 60?
Springs and Anderson might be near top 50-60, yeah
a. Signed up a few pitchers for Wednesday’s finale. Kept a few bench bats in case some guys don’t play, but will drop them too for who ever is available. Never would have guessed pitchers who won yesterday would win.
b. Dropped a lot of guys for today’s multiple double headers (Tex-NYY and Det-Sea). Couldn’t get myself to sign up Marwin Gonzalez, he’ll hit 4 grand slams tonight I am sure.
c. George Carlin quote of the day for October 4, 2022
‘The two big mistakes were the belief in a sky god – that there’s a man in the sky with ten things he doesn’t want you to do and you’ll burn for a long time if you do them – and private property, which I think is at the core of our failure as a species. That’s the source of my indignations, my dissatisfactions, however it comes out on stage. I feel betrayed by the people I’m part of, these creatures, these magnificent creatures.’
[On why he lacked faith in humanity]
From Mother Jones Magazine, March/April 1997
A. That’s what makes this great! (Or very frustrating)
B. Haha, yup
C. Wow, we’re ending on a heavy note this week
Ha, still time to liven it up before the last game of the WS. The last quote will be very final indeed.
Good luck with all your teams today, tomorrow and beyond!
Thanks, you too!
Start Hudson vs Pit even though SON hates it?
Streamonator came through with the Barrios start. Going with Hudson today. One final stream tomorrow. Do you like
Martin vs MIN
Sampson @ CIN
Alexander @ SEA
GOOD Morning Grey!
What is goin on with Grissom? Is he playing anymore? Did I miss the memo to drop him? I keep starting him (as HoT lists him with a high start %), then having to sub-out. That has been the last week straight. It gets a little boring…lol
Also, would you start the following (Yes/No) for 10team roto, Need QS,K’s,W’s without blowing up ERA:
1) EdRod @ SEA (11.2)
2) Lauer vs ARI (5.6)
3) Lorenzen @ OAK (0.7)
4) Rasmussen @ BOS (-8.6)
5) Adrian Simpson @ CINN (-12.2) (I dunno why SoN hates this, he’s got like 8 QS in a row)
6) Ashcraft vs CHC (6.1)
Grissom’s lost his playing time to Arcia
1) EdRod @ SEA (11.2)– yes
2) Lauer vs ARI (5.6) — yes
3) Lorenzen @ OAK (0.7) — yes
4) Rasmussen @ BOS (-8.6) — yes
5) Adrian Simpson @ CINN (-12.2) (I dunno why SoN hates this, he’s got like 8 QS in a row) — NO
6) Ashcraft vs CHC (6.1) — NO
Sweet! Thanks! If you had to start only 1 between Ed Rod, Lauer, Lorenzen Who would be THE ONE? :)
Help! Anyone! lol
I have 30 ip left in my league
Who do I start? Looking for qs, and to not blow up my era and whip
Verlander vs phi
Civale vs kc (THOUGH IDK IF HES STARTING BC MLB HAS PLESAC ON THEIR PAGE AS STARTING)
Davis Martin vs min
Falter @ hou
Verlander, EdRod, Civale, Rasmussen, Martin, German
Hoping the Baez owner drops him in the offseason so I can draft him. His September splits were very encouraging albeit over 100 at bats at .310/.530/.867 with 5 HRs, 16 RBI and 1 SB. Where do you see Baez getting drafted next year? (keep in mind he will only be SS eligible, no 2B or DH)
Maybe between 170-200
Pujols is like Thor, the more that people believe in him increases his power
I believe! I believe! I believe in the Poo Holes!
So, starting Greene and Wesnecki worked out well for me, wow! Thanks Grey. I’m now tied in Wins. Ahead in ERA 2.23 vs 2.43 and winning WHIP 0.96 vs 1.32. And I’m up 8-1-1 overall, though a lot of those categories are close.
Here’s my question. The only SP I have left is Ranger Suarez today @HOU. Coincidentally the only SP my opponent has left is Falter @HOU on Wednesday. Do I start Suarez?
Doesn’t seem worth it
Streamometer is messed up for tomorrow. Its projected starters include numerous guys who started Monday (e.g., Kirby, Musgrove). Anxiously waiting the next update.
I will ping Rudy, it usually gets updated a few times a day
It’s supposedly fixed
Grey the White! Long time since I’ve commented but I’m still grinding away. No not that kind of grinding.
Some of I favorite nuggets are found in your write ups at the end of the year as you talk about next year. I use it to target trades in the dynasties. I would LOVE to see a piece like ‘off season trade targets’ in a couple of weeks. But with a catchier title!
Yesterday in one yahoo public league I actually started Musgrove, Aaron Nola, Luzardo, Severino, and Patrick Sandoval. That’s 31.2 innings of 43 K’s, 3 wins, zero earned runs and 0.55 of whip. It’s been a frustrating year, but that was fun!
On another team, I head into the last 2 days with a 2 point lead over 2nd place on a team I drafted Tatis, Wander, Teoscar, Alonso, Freddy Peralta, Tyler O’Neill, and India in my first 7 rounds. How!? Because of you mostly, but it just shows you gotta keep grinding all season.
I’m 99% convinced not to draft a SP until round 8 or 9 next year. I ended with Musgrove, Cease and McClanahan on most teams as my SP2.
Thanks for all of your write ups. I greatly appreciate it.
Good to see you! Nice day yesterday! Awesome on the league of misfits too! No problem
Fantasy Baseball leagues for just the postseason, is that a thing anywhere?
Hmm…I think NFBC does it, but they charge…I’m not sure if ESPN or Yahoo do it anymore for free
Thanks for all the help this year
I’m in the finals of my 16 man dynasty league and it’s a street fight. I’m down to 2 starts while my opponent still has 6 left. Killing him in Ks and Wins, QS is too close, he’s more likely to win ERA, and the difference in WHIP right now is .001
I have Manaea, Cobb and DeGrom left. Best streamers left are Assad, Winder, Falter, Heasley, so hardly an option. Leaning towards starting the first two because I see no way DeGrom pitches more than a couple innings. Thoughts?
Yes, I agree with you
More like Shwacktober, amirite?
Schwacktober fest! or Shwacktober Festivus?
Phils are back in the dance, Lenny!
yes sir!……it’s been a long time since they rock and rolled
Or June 125th?
Nola actually lasted 6 2/3 innings.
Oops, I will fix
Severino (# 42) and Nola (#50) both made the 100 Best Starts last night. Aaron also has #17 and #56 on the list, while Luis has 1 other appearance at #23.
Don’t overlook the Hunter Greene start. He was filthy. He and Nola might have sewed up another title for me. Thank you,Grey, for all your help and insights this year and in years past. You make statistical analysis fun which is no small thing. Thanks!
That’s awesome! Congrats! Thanks for the kind words, hopefully I see you at Main Event again in Vegas
My reservations are made. Hope to see you but much off season banter first.
There are now 9 starts on the 100 Best list with 0 hits allowed (and the actual complete game no-hitter is 8th best/49th overall).
2 Clayton Kershaw Apr 13 @MIN 7 IP
3 Cristian Javier Jun 25 @NYY 7 IP
13 Justin Verlander Aug 23 MIN 6 IP
18 Max Scherzer Sep 19 @MIL 6 IP
38 Joe Ryan Sep 13 KC 7 IP
41 Sean Manaea Apr 08 @ARI 7 IP
42 Luis Severino Oct 03 @TEX 7 IP
49 Reid Detmers May 10 TB 9 IP
94 Justin Verlander Sep 16 OAK 5 IP
So crazy all of those starters were lifted with zero hits allowed
Fortunately, I had already used all my innings. I shudder to think what that Gonsolin start would have done to my 3.70 ERA.