I’ve been sitting on a title like that for months!

I still can’t believe Grey shat on The Fifth Element a few months ago on the Podcast, then followed it up with he hadn’t seen it…  Well ya know what?!  War and Peace is an awful book!

Patrick Corbin was an absolute G for me in 2013, as I streamed him in several leagues for a Padres start and decided to never look back.  Although looking at his game log again, that certainly seemed like a no-brainer!  He came out of absolutely nowhere and was shrugged off, but turned out to be a top-10 pitcher for most of the season.  Then he really fell off in his final 7 starts before tearing up his elbow in 2014’s Spring Training.

Now back in the rotation, the consensus seems to be pretty low on Corbin doing much this year, treating him like he’s a meat popsicle.  Maybe my 2013 love for Corbin has biased me, but I was excited to bring him in the ranks over a month before his debut.  So with middling numbers thus far despite good velocity, I decided to break down his third start off the DL to see how he’s looking pitch-by-pitch:

First Inning: Corbin’s first pitch is a 92 MPH fastball right at the knees to Angel Pagan, which opens his 26th birthday outing.  Happy 26th my man!  92 a little higher on the hands is fouled back, back-foot slider is well inside – great to see his bread and butter right away – then right back to that slider at 83 MPH just explodes through the zone and ends up low to get a K to start the day:

Corbin-slider-1

Fastball outside to Joe Panik, heater again misses, then a high fastball at the letters at 93 MPH is pounded right to second for an easy second out.  Matt Duffy takes 94 MPH low – nice to see Corbin getting into the mid-90s – a perfect 94 MPH hits the knees, and man that’s such a solid location, 1-1:

Corbin-Fastball

94 is high, 94 on the outside edge is slashed way foul, 95 on the outside edge is cut on way foul, still 2-2.  95 is definitely up there for him!  The Corbin after sitting outside tries to come in at 94 and plunks Duffy on his elbow guard.  So runner at first, and Buster Posey takes 93 inside, then 93 a little off the outside edge of the plate is inside-outed through the gap for a single to right.  Not exactly huge contact, but man Posey can hit, finding the hole with a good swing.  Runners at the corners, and Hunter Pence takes a great slider bending into the zone 0-1, slider again dips lower and is golfed foul, slider one more time is well inside, 1-2, slider yet again has Pence barely holding his swing as it skips in, 2-2 is a 93 MPH fastball very well placed on the hands and blooped foul – nice to see Corbin unafraid to go back inside after hitting someone, then another slider is chopped down the third base line and is mere inches foul, 2-2 again.  Probably an infield RBI single if that’s fair.  Then finally Corbin gets Pence to ground out to second on a 2-2 low fastball, and a fairly long 22 pitch inning is over.

Second Inning: Brandon Crawford takes a letter-high strike to open the second, slider is popped back foul, a great slider starting inside and bending into the zone is dribbled foul, 0-2 again is a fastball at 93 MPH just off the outside edge and Crawford is late on it in protect mode for Corbin’s 2nd K.  Lefty-killer (I may have known this would happen before hand, shhhhh!) Justin Maxell takes a fastball way high, then the 0-1 is a 92 MPH fastball on the outside edge and Maxell hits it high oppo field for a HR.  The fastball was supposed to be more down, it ended up being middle outside, and everything carries in the desert air.  So now down 0-1, Corbin misses outside to Brandon Belt, then Corbin’s first change-up wasn’t the worst pitch at 78 MPH but Belt golfs it to left and it’s barely out of Ender Inciarte‘s reach for a double to left.  Ya know, neither of those XBH looked like they were crushed – the ball is carrying like crazy right now in a desert afternoon game.  So Belt is at second, Corbin hoping to turn this back around, and he drops in a perfect slider on the first pitch to Madison Bumgarner for strike one.  Respecting maybe the best hitting pitcher in baseball!  Corbin throws a high 91 MPH fastball that blows him away – velo is down a tad – then a fantastic slider at 81 gets Bumgarner barely holding to make it 1-2.  I thought he went.  92 is inside, then the 2-2 is a slider starting outside and bending into the zone for strike three called.  Two down, and back to the top with Pagan weakly topping a slider foul, fastball inside, slider drops in low, fastball fouled back, high 91 MPH fastball is cut on late and slashed foul, 2-2 again is a 91 MPH fastball on the hands and Pagan grounds it weakly to first to end the inning.

Third Inning: Needing some quick innings, Corbin finds himself tied 1-1 and starts Panik with a high fastball, 1-0.  Fantastic slider drops in there for strike one, and I cannot rave about his slider enough – looks just as good as 2013.  Slider again stays high, slider drops low, and of course as soon as I mention it he loses the feel a bit.  Then fastball stays high for a 3-1 walk.  92 on the hands gets Duffy to foul it back, then 92 again on the outside edge gets a deep fly to right, but Yasmany Tomas nabs it on the warning track for the first out.  That’s a routine fly ball in SF.  Then on the first pitch, a letter-high 91 MPH fastball is crushed to center, but A.J. Pollock grabs that one on the run in deep center for the second out.  That one was much louder.  Not loving this hard contact on top of decreased velocity.  Pence takes 92 on the outside edge for strike one, Pence fouls the next one back, 92 again is fouled off, slider stays low and Wellington Castillo can’t field it and Panik moves to second on a wild pitch.  That wasn’t too wild though…  Perfect slider at 81 tried to backdoor him but Pence spoils it, 91 high out of the zone is fouled off, and Pence is swinging at everything.  1-2 again is a slider way hung high, overthrew that one, 93 gives him some chin music, and all the sudden the count is full.  Then the 3-2 slider is hung a tad in the zone at 76 MPH and Pence rips it to left for an RBI double.  Just a ridiculous AB there from Pence.  That said, Corbin hasn’t looked the same since the first inning.  Still two outs and runner at second, and 91 blows Crawford away 0-1, 92 cuts outside, 93 stays outside, 92 paints the outside corner to make it 2-2, then 92 high and on the outside edge blows Crawford away for Corbin’s 4th K to get out of the inning.

Fourth Inning: At 63 pitches, Corbin has labored a bit and starts Maxell with a fastball outside, and then there’s that extra pitch I wanted to see – fantastic 81 MPH change-up to the lefty-killing Maxwell gets him way out in front to make it 1-1:

Corbin-Changeup

If that change-up can get mixed in, Corbin can be so so good.  Corbin misses outside, fastball again out there fouled off, slider barely gets nicked for a foul, then slider again at 82 gets Maxwell to strike out for his 5th K:

Corbin-slider-2

That might be the biggest AB I’ve seen for Corbin today – Maxwell kills lefties and Corbin made the adjustment against him to strike him out.  Fastball is in there to Belt, fastball again that looked like a tad off the outside edge is called strike two (thanks ump!), then 93 barely off the outside edge is indeed called a ball, 1-2.  Slider bends outside, then 92 on the hands obliterates Belt’s bat as it shatters everywhere for a weak grounder to second, two down.  Then a 90 MPH fastball on the outside corner gets a routine grounder to short from Bumgarner for a quick – and sorely needed- 4th inning.

Fifth Inning: And picking right back up, Corbin gets a first-pitch grounder to short from Pagan to get an easy first out to start the fifth.  Corbin misses to Panik, 92 paints the outside corner 1-1, fastball again a tad outside, 92 way outside, then 91 on the outside edge is popped foul to third, and another quickie.  Change-up skips in to Duffy, fastball on the outside edge fouled back, fastball on the inner half fouled off, 93 stays high – nice to see Corbin approaching those mid-90s late in the outing – then a slider just off the outside edge is flied to right, and Tomas makes the grab for another quick inning, but it will end Corbin’s afternoon.

Final Line:  L  5.0 IP  86 Pitches (54 Strikes)  2 ER  4 Hits  1 Walk  5 K  Gamescore: 55   Gamescore+: 60.8

Final Analysis: Man, such a mixed bag!  After the first inning I was ready to pull the trigger and have him shoot much higher in my ranks, but he labored through the 2nd and 3rd to give me pause.  Then mowed through the 4th and 5th…  If Gamescore+ can really tell us anything, this was one of the widest Gamescore/Gamescore+ calculations on the season as Corbin got Ks and only had a few hard-contact outs.  That said, shorter outings with decent Ks will cause a gap like that.

I really wish Corbin’s fastball was a little more consistent, as it sat 93-94 in the first inning even hitting 95, but fell to more the 91-93 range the rest of the game.  He was locating pretty well and it still gets on top of hitters pretty quick, but if it could stay mid-90s for a full outing, it would be dominant.  That said, overall it’s at 92.6 MPH on the year, high than 92.1 in 2013.  No matter how you slice it, that slider is still dominant.  Ranging from 76-82 or 83, it continues to have ridiculous life and he can throw them for strikes.   That was my main concern with Corbin coming off the DL – could he continue to rely on those sliders for success?  How do I feel about answering that question after yesterday?  “Thrilled!”  Then his final pitch – the change-up – was only utilized a handful of times, but looked really good.  I think the more Corbin gets extended, he will throw more of those.

So how does Corbin rank ROS?  Well it wasn’t great to see a slight velo dropoff, and he struggled at times putting hitters away.  That said, Hunter Pence took like, 18 pitches to get through his two ABs, so the high-ish pitch count through 5 innings is a little misleading.  While Corbin does appear to have some rust, he’s only allowed two Leeloo Dallas Multi-Passes on the season, with a 13:2 K:BB through his first 3 starts in 15 innings.  He’s got all the pieces there to go on a hot stretch at some point in the second half, but he maintains in the mid-50s for me.  It’ll be a few more starts until he’s fully stretched out – along with that TJ rust to shake off – but man is he going to be a huge sleeper for me in 2016.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, Team
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Max Scherzer, WAS
3 Chris Sale, CWS
4 Felix Hernandez, SEA
5 Corey Kluber, CLE
6 Madison Bumgarner, SF
7 David Price, DET
8 Gerrit Cole, PIT
9 Zack Greinke, LAD
10 Jake Arrieta, CHC
11 Chris Archer, TB
12 Jacob deGrom, NYM
13 Jose Fernandez, MIA
14 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
15 Sonny Gray, OAK
16 Matt Harvey, NYM
17 Cole Hamels, PHI
18 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
19 Johnny Cueto, CIN
20 Carlos Martinez, STL
21 Francisco Liriano, PIT
22 Michael Wacha, STL
23 Michael Pineda, NYY
24 Jon Lester, CHC
25 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
26 Danny Salazar, CLE
27 Jeff Samardzija, CWS
28 Jason Hammel, CHC
29 Garrett Richards, LAA
30 James Shields, SD
31 Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
32 Tyson Ross, SD
33 Alex Wood, ATL
34 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
35 A.J. Burnett, PIT
36 Shelby Miller, ATL
37 Lance Lynn, STL
38 Trevor Bauer, CLE
39 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
40 Taijuan Walker, SEA
41 Lance McCullers, HOU
42 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
43 Jose Quintana, CWS
44 Jake Odorizzi, TB
45 John Lackey, STL
46 Collin McHugh, HOU
47 Scott Kazmir, OAK
48 Julio Teheran, ATL
49 Mat Latos, MIA
50 Andrew Cashner, SD
51 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
52 Hector Santiago, LAA
53 Mike Fiers, MIL
54 Phil Hughes, MIN
55 Vincent Velasquez, HOU
56 Patrick Corbin, ARI
57 Yordano Ventura, KC
58 Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL
59 Carlos Rodon, CWS
60 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
61 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
62 Andrew Heaney, LAA
63 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
64 Erasmo Ramirez, TB
65 Tony Cingrani, CIN
66 Wei-Yin Chen, BAL
67 Kendall Graveman, OAK
68 Kyle Gibson, MIN
69 Nate Karns, TB
70 Cody Anderson, CLE
71 Anibal Sanchez, DET
72 Jesse Chavez, OAK
73 Chris Heston, SF
74 Marco Estrada, TOR
75 Aaron Nola, PHI
76 Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
77 Robbie Ray, ARI
78 Kevin Gausman, BAL
79 Taylor Jungmann, MIL
80 Dan Haren, MIA
81 Matt Cain, SF
82 Edinson Volquez, KC
83 Ian Kennedy, SD
84 Ervin Santana, MIN
85 Mike Leake, CIN
86 Jake Peavy, SF
87 Doug Fister, WAS
88 Michael Montgomery, SEA
89 Jon Niese, NYM
90 J.A. Happ, SEA
91 Drew Hutchison, TOR
92 Justin Verlander, DET
93 Matt Moore, TB
94 C.J. Wilson, LAA
95 Jaime Garcia, STL
96 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
97 Danny Duffy, KC
98 Mike Bolsinger, LAD
99 Mark Buehrle, TOR
100 Brett Anderson, LAD

Dropped Out: Bartolo Colon, NYM (rough start last time out, hasn’t moved off a 4.80 ERA the past 10 starts), Yovani Gallardo, TEX (21 walks to his last 21 Ks across his last 7 starts, 3 Ks and 3 BB a game?!  Eesh.), Chase Anderson, ARI (DL – triceps/sucking)

  • With only three games since our last rankings update, not too much has changed.  Unlike last week where I had 14 days worth of action to re-rank!
  • Man, Dallas Keuchel looked ridiculous yesterday!  13 Ks for a guy that early in the year people were concerned by the K rates!  I got some flack for having him 20 last week, even though I had him 41 vs. a consensus 62 rank.  Funny how easy it is to be too considered too high then only a couple months later way too low on someone!
  • I’m not really worried about Cole Hamels, but man he’s been brutal.  There’s speculation he’s struggling with all the trade rumors swirling around, but I don’t know if a trade will magically fix a cold spell.  He has to adjust to a new environment, and maybe even to AL lineups.  Plus it could still be a few starts away before a deal happens.
  • Also not worried with Matt Harvey, other than the looming innings limit.  As we’re over the hump here, his value in ROS terms takes a bigger hit every week.
  • I was a little worried about Lance Lynn‘s forearm issue, but he looks fine and just keeps racking up numbers.
  • As I mentioned on the Pod this afternoon, Phil Hughes has pitched better even with maintaining his low velocity, but has amped up his cutter usage his last 5 starts to nearly 30%, with the 4 before Saturday’s game all at 31%.  Maybe when he finds that pitch early, he is relying on it more to mow through hitters.
  • Grey and I also talked up Tony Cingrani likely joining the Reds rotation this week, and he’s had 14 scoreless innings in AAA with 18 Ks.  Just has to stay healthy, but he only has the second half to get through at this point.

Am I sipping too much of the Corbin Dallas juice?!  I might only have 5 points left on my license!  And any other thoughts on the ranks?  Shoot your comments below, and happy 2nd half pitching Razzball Nation!

 
  1. Clint says:
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    I’ve been watching the return of guys like J-Fer and Corbin in terms of their performance and how Razzball’s been viewing them for value and I’m wondering: how do you handle guys like this in a keeper league? Would you wait to try to stash a guy like Corbin until late this year in anticipation of full ramp up in 2016 or would you get a guy like Darvish now & then keep him going into next season to ride out the bumps since he’s likely to be hard to get for 2017 a la J-Fer?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Clint: Hmmmm very interesting question. Darvish has so much upside that I would have to keep him over Corbin, and if memory serves, he had his TJ done a little earlier than Corbin. I think Corbin had his pretty late in 2014 Spring. So between the two it’s Darvish, but I am going to be big on Corbin for 2016, I’m thinking end of the top 30.

  2. Pounce says:
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    Any chance Medlen gets into the Royals rotation? Also, do you see Berrios coming up soon?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Pounce: Sure there’s always a chance, but I don’t see it happeneing for at least a few more weeks unless there’s 2 injuries. I don’t think we see Berrios too soon, they had to bump May from the rotation who I would imagine they still like a lot, so if we do see him I think it’d be Sept at the earliest.

  3. roger says:
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    Speaking of Darvish: in a keeper league (costs a late round pick), who’s the lowest ranked pitcher you would trade him for, if you’re looking to win this year.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @roger: Hmmm, I would go fairly low to try and win now. Burnett? Then you have nothing for later though… I dunno, I may be in the minority, but I could see McCullers since he’s pitching pretty well now and has upside for the future

  4. JT says:
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    rubby or iwakuma this week?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @JT: I like the 2 starts for Rubby and Iwakuma scares me @DET, gimme Rubby

  5. John says:
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    Would you give up Braun to get Greinke?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @John: Hmmmmm. It’s close, if pitching is a need and either it’s a 3 OF league/or you have 5 solid OF options, yeah I would do that

      • John says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        It’s 4OF – Have him, Yoenis, Bruce, Byrd, Hunter, Fowler

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @John: Eesh yeah I dunno, that really hurts your OF depth. Maybe you can squeeze a little OF help out of the deal too?

          • John says:
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            @JB Gilpin:

            Think i’ll stay put. Have Harvey, Pineda, Lester, Carrasco, Odorizzi, Corbin. Think Lester and Carrasco should have a better 2H based on their advanced numbers.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @John: Yup agree with all of that, good call

  6. greg says:
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    Cashner righting the ship you think?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @greg: Ummm, a little bit, the thing that has kept Cashner “OK” in my ranks is he’s got a little bit of an unlucky BABIP, very unlucky LOB% (61.5%) and velo is up since the previous 2 season. So I think his ERA should be a tad lower and his K rate has been better than years’ past, so yeah i think the ship is righting. Which would be to… starboard? Haha

  7. LittleJoeyCora says:
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    Can I ask, why so much love for Velasquez?

    Curious ’cause he’s sitting there on my waiver wire, Just waiting for me to grab him.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @LittleJoeyCora: Haha he had his arms wide open, ready for you to scoop him up! Well his walk rate was about a BB per 9 better in the minors before he came up, and he’s got really good stuff that I think will further translate in the second half. the big thing is the improvement in walks – only 4 in his last 3 starts – with all 3 of those being pretty good.

      • LittleJoeyCora says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Cool. Thanks for the help. And thanks for the awesome write ups! You do GREAT work

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @LittleJoeyCora: Thanks so much man! The comments are what make all the work into these more than worth it!

  8. Gray's Sports Almanac says:
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    JB, thanks for the pitcher reviews and I think you do a great job with the starter rankings. I have to ask though, what are you thinking with Alex Wood? SP 33 in your rankings, I like him, but damn he has put me to the whip-ing post most times he goes out and his K’s are down… do you see a silver lining with him this year that I am missing. I’ve been watching him in a Grey cyclops with a monocle kind of way… Doodes just inconsistent as hell. Preach some fantasy wisdom sir…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Gray’s Sports Almanac: Haha yeah he hasn’t been great overall, but he’s been better – for the most part – lately. Last 9 starts 58 IP 3.70 ERA with 48 Ks isn’t that bad. Only 14 walks in that span too, while he walked too many early. I think he’s coming around, and still has that crazy seasonal .348 BABIP against him hurting too. So yeah, good K:BB for a good stretch now with some unlucky hits, some of those become outs like we expect and I think he will be solid

    • Fungazi says:
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      @Gray’s Sports Almanac: I was also wondering about this guy. I feel bad that he’s down on his luck and all, but I don’t really need him being unlucky all over my ratios. His rank this year is 931, plain n simple. If Nola does well tonight and Wood puts up another 1.50 WHIP, 2-3 k dud, do you make the switch? He’s my worst pitcher by far.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Fungazi: Hahahaha, “I don’t really need him being unlucky all over my ratios. ” is a great line. Let me wait and make that call after tonight, I haven’t seen much tape on Nola in the minors, I’ll def be watching some tonight.

        • Fungazi says:
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          @JB Gilpin: Haha, yeah it might be funny but at the end of the day, it’s the numbers on the bottom of the page that matter. I can usually call these things, but I look through all his starts and remove the worst couple or the best couple and I’m just perplexed because I can’t tell if they are good or bad. Usually the ERA is not too bad, and lots of QS over the past couple of months, but that WHIP is terrible. Some games he gets 6 – 7 K’s other days is 0 or 1.

          Nola seems to be OK through 4, but it is the Rays.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Fungazi: And today was none. Yeah Nola looked solid, I guess I am pretty ood with that move, which means I gotta make some big fixes for next week’s ranks hah

            • Fungazi says:
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              @JB Gilpin: Lol, there’s the prediction:

              Nola does well tonight and Wood puts up another 1.50 WHIP, 2-3 k dud

              Well Nola is in my NA still so maybe there might be an injury somewhere to switch him out or else I have a few days to think about it.

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Fungazi: Yeah that def helps that you have some time. Wood also switched to the other side of the rubber, and it led to 4 walks with no Ks. Eesh, hate that he feels he has to tinker, that’s gonna drop him further

  9. Chucky says:
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    Two start Erod or Heston
    Two start Ventura or Cashner
    Drop Monty for Crazy Joe Ross?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chucky: Ah I mighta missed the weekly cutoff, but I woulda gone Erod + Cashner. Mehhhh, good to see Ross making the rotation, but Strasburg isn’t too far out. Short term I would, but in limited moves league I woudln’t

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chucky: Too late to say I woulda said Heston not E Rod? Haha

      • Chucky says:
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        Dont sweat it, i went with my gut, Heston and Cashner. Im about to give Ventura a decent burial, im that kinda guy. Would uou swap put Ventura for Cingriani?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Chucky: Whewwww, it’s def close. Ventura has been in the 50s for me a while now, and it doesn’t look like it’s fixing. Shallow league, i might make that gamble. Nice work avoiding that E Rod blowup!

  10. John says:
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    Where is Noah Syndergaard’s ceiling on this list? Good list, helpful stuff on Corbin

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @John: He’s pretty close to his ceiling for this year as he is, maybe with a few more ridiculous starts he could get into top-30, but innings limit concern does loom. Thanks man!

  11. PED Inc. says:
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    Wow, that high on Cingrani! I was digging into his stats the last couple years this morning and was contemplating adding him in one of my H2H points leagues, you may have just pushed me to do so with his RP/SP eligibility. I would have to drop one of the following to do so, whatcha think? Currently in first place in the league by a comfortable margin.

    Ervin Santana
    Nola
    McCullers

    Also what are your expectations on Matz? I haven’t been able to find any new news on his recovery.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @PED Inc.: Nice! Yeah I think he can contribute right away, and looks great rehabbing. Let’s hope his shoulder can stay together! With the elig, I would lose Santana, I don’t think you lose any upside there.

      I think 5 more starts is about the max. Mets are falling down, they won’t want to push him, and it’s a partial tear. He’s 10 days in to a hard 3-week shutdown, so I don’t think we’ll hear anything else for another 10 days

  12. Cafuné

    Maxi says:
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    Who do you like more for a streamer: Karns @ PHI tomorrow or Robbie Ray vs MIA on Weds?

    Might go Karns/Cingrani and keep Cingrani until the rotation shakes out in Cinci.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Maxi: Hmmm, good one. I’ll go Karns. I like going that route as well!

  13. Eric B says:
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    OK JB,, thanks as always for the update., diggin the 5th element references too lol.Just read your reply last night on the old thread, curious to see how you’d tweak my staff going forward. You said you’d definitely add one over Jungman, my question is would you replace Jungman alone or Jungman and Hendricks? Based on the rankings they are all in the same neighborhood. Staff is as follows:

    Staff 12 team 5×5 HTH no IP limit
    P Kluber
    P Cole
    P Bauer
    P Salazar
    P T. Walker
    SP Odorizzi
    SP Hendricks
    RP Chapman
    RP Britton
    Bench RP Melancon
    Bench RP Miller
    Bench SP Lackey
    Bench SP Jungman

    Hughes, Vinny V and Corbin are all available…Hendricks and Jungman are my 2 lowest ranked arms, need the two most reliable pitchers ROS in Hendricks/Jungmans spots as we can only keep 4 players per year anyway.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Eric B: Haha yessir, thanks man!

      Yeah it’s tough with all in the same range there. I think Corbin is coming in for Jungmann, although I could see wanting to hold off. Tough to lose a guy as hot as Jungmann, but I like Corbin a bit more. I’d hold true with hendricks.

      • Eric B says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Yeah I’m really torn…I feel like Jungman will regress but it’s hard to want to drop him right now. Originally I was going to stream Jungman and then dump him for the 2 start Graveman this week. But based on your rankings I’m guessing you like Corbin, Vinny V and Hughes better than Graveman? I need ratio stabilization but with some K contribution. I want to like Corbin but the limited outings concern me. I also like Vinny but he burnt me last time he was up…decisions, decisions lol.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Eric B: Yeah I indeed like all those guys more, all with a little more upside. Well maybe comparable for Hughes, but he’s been doing it a tad longer. Hughes doesn’t do enough with the Ks, I dunno i think Corbin gets stretched out more and more and he looked good, I think he’s your fit

          • Eric B says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Listen JB, I only speak two languages, english and bad english lol (lil’ 5th element back atcha). But seriously think I’m gonna have to take a chance on Corbin. I’ll monitor Vinny V and Gausman to see if one of them starts to full fill their promise of being front end guys and swap Hendricks for one of them if that actually comes to fruition this year. So how do you feel about this staff over all( see below)? I’m still in 1st but I’m facing the guy in 2nd this week and my 8.5 game lead will likely be cut in half, he’s just healthier. I still have Freeman, Stanton and Springer on the DL. Posting my entire roster below, any and all feed back is welcomed:

            5×5 12 Team HTH w/ OBP
            Bats
            C McCann
            1B Y. Grandal
            2B Kipnis
            3B Santana
            SS Aybar
            OF Pollock
            OF Calhoun
            OF Cepesedes
            OF Betts
            Util Avisail Garcia
            Util Soler
            Util Sano
            Bench 2B/SS/3B Semien
            DL Freeman
            DL Springer
            DL Stanton

            Staff
            P Kluber
            P Cole
            P Bauer
            P Salazar
            P T. Walker
            SP Odorizzi
            SP Hendricks
            RP Chapman
            RP Britton
            Bench RP Melancon
            Bench RP Miller
            Bench SP Lackey
            Bench SP Corbin

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Eric B: Haha nice! “Anyone else want to negotiate?!”

              Yeah if Hendricks has a ho-hum start or a clunker and Vinnie V has a low walk, high K outing I could see making that swap as well, but for now I think your staff is set.

              Ugh, sucks Sano is gonna miss a few days, your hitters can’t stay healthy! I’d be fine losing either Hendricks or Corbin to chase a close hitting stat by the end of the week, if you’re close anywhere. Get a witch doctor to heal those bats!

              • Eric B says:
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                @JB Gilpin: My bats are taking a beating but looks like I got lucky with Grandal and Sano, neither are expected to hit the DL.

                Havent actually made the move for Corbin yet. Wanted to see Velasquez and a few others pitch first. What did you think of Vinny V’s performance? Still recommend that I pick up Corbin over him. Gave up a few runs but no walks and solid K numbers, thought he looked really good.

                Hendricks looked solid and seems like a keeper; at least for now. But Walker is back to pitching like skat…think he gets it back together? He looked so good for awhile… dont think I can just drop him or at least I dont want to lol.

                So here’s who’s available for my last slot: Corbin and Vinny V are the front runners imo. J.Ross and Gausman are out there too but not sure they are on the same level as the first 2 or I could try to improve my ratio’s by adding someone like Carter Capps.

                As for bats Kang, DeShields, Piscotty, Turner and Cron are all available but Freeman should be back in the next 10 days so I’ll already have a dilemma as to who to drop for him as is. May have to drop Avisial or an arm to activate him. Any roster advice is welcomed. Look forward to you response.

                • Eric B says:
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                  @Eric B: OMT with Avisial being non-productive would you make a switch now, I’ve been leaving him as my bench bat but with Grandal and McCann sitting every now and then I do have to use him some. Would one of the bats above be a better fit for my roster(see above) or would you go no bench bat and an extra arm?

                  • Eric B says:
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                    @Eric B: lmao, last thought/question: I have Semien and Avisial…neither are lighting it up. Would you swap them both for some combo of DeShields, Turner or Kang? Semiens covers as my back up to 2nd and SS, Deshields has 2b/OF eligibility and Kang has SS/3B eligibility, while Turner is just a 3rd baseman(and may or may not be impacted by Olivera when he gets the call). Ok I know thats a lot of questions but thats why you’re the man and I’m the fan lol.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @Eric B: VV looked really good! Love the no walks. Man those two are neck and neck. I’ll lean Velasquez now for short term, ROS if I had to be locked in I would go Corbin.

                      Yeah I wouldn’t lose Walker. Hendricks got completely douched in the first inning this afternoon. inf single, inf single, walk, bloop. Then a legit double, but then has been ridiculous since. Still holding.

                      I’ll stick with Vinny in that spot of the pitchers. Deshields is close since I think you could use the speed. Ohhhhh yeah gimme Deshields over Simein since he has MI elig. Man Garcia is cold. Yeah as a UTIL I def like Turner more. So I would swap both your bench bats and keep Vinny.

                      Hope that helps, any time man!

  14. Peter Nincompoop says:
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    What’s good JP? It’s redundant, but always appreciate your pitcher rankings (not to mention your shizz on the basketball side of the equation, but that’s a different animal).

    In a 10-Team H2H Keeper League (6×6 scoring) and currently sitting in 1st place by 14 games. Just traded Pablo, Heston and a 4th round pick for Carrasco and Carlos Santana. The league keeps six per team, so not stressing about the pick I moved.

    Got the SP staff of Sale, Carrasco, Pineda, Lester, Salazar, Samardzija and Zimmerman. Feel really good about that staff going forward, but think I could get sneaky and make my hitter keeping lot better for next year better (as we have to keep four hitters and I already have the likes of Stanton, Arenado, McCutchen… Kipnis? J.D. Matinez? Pollock?). Not going to put the whole roster out there for you to mull through, but do you think I could suffer losing Sale and Soler for Bryant and Wacha? The idea would be to keep Stanton, Arenado, Bryant and McCutchen as my hitters for next year and then taking my pick between what SP I got left.

    Essentially, am I overthinking? Or, does that sound like something you would do. Snoogins…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Peter Nincompoop: Good to see ya man!

      Whoaaaaaa, love that move! Nice work!

      Hmmmm, I think Sale is still your monster ace. Bryant is a good upgrade though, but the opportunity cost I don’t think is worth it for that deal. Martinez or Pollock will be solid keepers next to your studs. I don’t think overthinking it is the right term, but I think those final hitter keepers are still really really good.

      Hope that helps!

      • Peter Nincompoop says:
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        @JB Gilpin: You’re a voice of reason, and always lean on it. Appreciate it, as always.

  15. Dave says:
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    Hey JB, do you like E. Santana or T. Cingrani better ROS. I think Cingrani if he stays healthy and in the rotation has more upside right? Santana is the safe call but you must agree there is big upside with Cingrani, correct? Thanks man!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Dave: I am gonna go upside of Cingrani. Def agree with your take, but yeah gimme the guy with a little more K upside in the NL. In a deeper league if you needed for sure innings, I could see switching to Sanatana, but it’d have to be mad deep. Any time, thanks for stopping by!

  16. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    i keep reminding Grey every time i see 3rd element on cable, fairly sarcastic of course since i know he won’t be watching it. but i do alert him just in case.

  17. Dub. says:
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    16 team league h2h, you trading Matz(6 yrs), Kyle freeland (6 yrs), and a first round minor league pick for Greinke (2 yrs )? Would love to add Greinke.

    Thanks! Love the writing.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Dub.: Damn, that’s a huge move! Definitely helps you now if you’re close for a title, but man Matz might be a top-20 pre-ranked guy as early as next year. I’m kinda leaning no to be honest, unless you’re really strapped for consistent pitching for this year’s title run. Matz could be ace-worthy for 4 of those 6 years.

      Thanks so much man, thanks for stopping by!

      • Dub. says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Thanks for the help. I passed too. In a 16 team league, to have Sale, DeGrom and Iwakuma as your 3 isn’t bad.

        Would you deal Addison Russell (6yrs) for Heaney (6 yrs)? Also thoughts on the Shark or Fiers….who you like ROS?

        ‘Preciate the help.

        • Dub. says:
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          @Dub.:
          the other manager also has Eduardo Rodriguez (6 yrs ) and Urias but he won’t trade him :/

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Dub.: Yeah not at all.

            I def don’t think I would do the Russell one. Such a scarce position in MI and he’s still super young. I think he can be studly down the road. I wouldn’t do E Rob either. I’d do Urias, sucks he won’t move him :(

            Ummm, I still like Shark ROS over Fiers, but they’re close.

            Any time man!

  18. Jaymz says:
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    Why no love for Erasmo, I thought for sure he is above, say, Velazquez. Seems everyone thinks he’s just a really hot schmotatoe rather than viewing him as a former great prospect has finally ‘turned the corner’.. am I right?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jaymz: Wow, I had completely forgotten anything about him when he was a prospect, bad memory haha. Yeah he’s been really good – great K:BB, but hasn’t gotten deeper than 6 innings in the past 8. BABIP a little low at .257, and I just think Velasquez has more K upside. I’d certainly take him over E Rod now! Hah! One more good start and yeah, he’ll vault to 50ish.

  19. tokyofantasy says:
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    Nice write up about Corbin and ranks!

    Pick 3 – Corbin, Cingrani, J Garcia, Heston, Velasquez, Nola and Brett Anderson?

    Currently owns Heston, Nola, Anderson (streaming) and Garcia on DL who is coming back soon. Intrigued by Corbin and Cingrani, but Heston and Garcia (if healthy) seem to be safer.

    My other starters are Carrasco, Ross and Pineda. I’ve drafted bats heavy as I figured to stream.

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @tokyofantasy: Thanks man!

      Hmmm that’s an interesting list, all are in the same class. Agree the C pitchers are more risky, but I’m definitely nabbing Corbin for someone. Maybe wait and see how Anderson does tonight, then swap to Corbin.

      Any time man!

      • tokyofantasy says:
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        @JB Gilpin: After today’s performance by Heston, Nola & Anderson, it was easy to drop Anderson.

        The other C pitcher was taken ahead of him, but I was happy to be able to nab Corbin who was my preference after reading your advice! Thanks again JB!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @tokyofantasy: Yeah, def didn’t help he got hurt…. I love that I had to fight people that I didn’t have him in bc ROS I worried about injury issues, he finally makes it and gets hurt right away! Hah! Any time!

  20. Scott says:
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    I’m worried about Hammel’s DTD status. That hammy could really hurt his velo, right?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scott: It certainly could, but he’s avoiding DL time. We can definitely see what happens tonight, but I would have no hesitation playing him @ CIN

  21. Ryan741 says:
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    JB, looking to possible deal Max to get some extra pieces to make a playoff push. I’m debating trade Max/V Mart/Grichuk for DeGrom/Miggy/Kazmir, and then flipping Miggy to another owner for Pence or Tulo/Carrasco. I love Max, but if I could get 4 good to great guys for him I gotta do it right?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Ryan741: Yeah I would def do that if it nets what I am gathering here! So overall it’s:

      Max/VMart/Grichuk for deGrom/Carrasco/Tulo/Kazmir? Yeah I am def doing that!

  22. Chad Strickler says:
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    Always great stuff JB! Is giving up Mookie for Harvey or DeGrom a good move in a 10 team full keeper?

    Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chad Strickler: Thanks for dropping by! Man I love Mookie… But yeah I think I’d be fine moving him for Harvey if you need pitching. Plus Mookie losing 2B elig hurts

  23. B the Esq says:
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    What does the E-Rod debacle last night do to your evaluation for RoS and even longer term….obviously its just one game, but he has had several “blow up” games amidst his solid starts….is this merely the growing pains of a rookie or legit reason for concern moving forward?

    Have him in a 10 team h2h keeper where he could be a last round keeper, but not sure what to do with him……how would you rank E-Rod, Nola, Brian Johnson, Berrios for this year and in a keeper?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @B the Esq: Yeah I shouldn’t have had him that high… Hindsight a bit obviously, but it hurts a lot. I’m kinda going to toe the line, but yes I think it’s more growing pains, but I think he’ll have enough of them to be concerned for the ROS.

      I’d probably go Nola, E Ros, Berrios, Johnson.

      Thanks for stopping by!

  24. Wild Thing says:
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    Great write up!

    In a keeper league, would you trade Gregory Polanco for Matz in a keeper league if you needed pitching and did not need OF for 2016? Fair value?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Wild Thing: Thanks man! Yeah that’s a solid value, i think it’s actually a tad unfair, I’d rather Matz by a good bit :)

  25. Knighttown says:
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    What tier would you move Pedroia for in a redraft 12 teamer. And who are the “shut down” concerns. Syndegaard? McCullers?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Knighttown: I could see taking the risk on Strasburg, but he’s moving up because he seems to be getting healthy (let’s hope). But I’d skip a few just ahead of him, maybe 30-35 as a base line? And yeah those two, Syndergaard more so than McCullers, Jungmann maybe even though he’s just a streamer right now, Nola now that he’s up, Velasquez, Rodon, and I could see the Cards scaling C Mart back

  26. Bammers says:
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    I have a dynasty league question for you. H2h 16 team non contract dynasty points league. I have Trout and Adam Jones as my CFs, so I am looking to deal one for a SP upgrade, as the league is very pitcher friendly with the points. Right now Jones is in my Util spot and I don’t have a great 1b. This team is in 2nd in the league right now and looking to make a run at it.

    He offered E5/CJ Wilson for Jones/Kyle Lohse. I am not a huge fan of Wilson, so I am going to see if I can swap him for either Kazmir or Hector Santiago.

    1. Do you do this deal?
    2. Which pitcher should I ask for? Wilson, Kazmir, or Santiago?
    3. He also has Fielder. Would he be a better target in this deal than E5?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bammers: 1. Yeah I think I do, e5 when he’s right is awesome in Pts with the walks, and Jones doens’t get those. I don’t love Wilson either, but yeah I’d go for a better pitcher if it can work – I’d take Kazmir.

      I think I’ll stick with E5 over Fielder. His average sucks, but OBP is still good with all the walks.

      Any time!

      • Bammers says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Very helpful.. thanks for the advice!

  27. Harrison Ford in Air Force One says:
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    I grabbed Cingrani, but another owner just dropped Danny Salazar to waivers.

    Lost Cingrani, Alex Wood, or McHugh for Salazar?

    I could theoretically also drop a bench bat (Fowler, Choo)

    What say you, JB?

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Harrison Ford in Air Force One: “GET OFF MY PLANE!”

        Whoa, yeah def gotta grab Salazar. Man I wanna see what Cingrani does, I don’t know if I’m completely losing Wood yet… Fowler’s been doing a little better, I think if you’re doing OK in steals he would be the drop though. If you need Fowler in there here and there, I would lose – ugh – Wood I think.

  28. ryan_horner says:
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    JB, trade questions in a H2H points league. I’m debating an offer where I would give up Max/Ellsbury/Tanaka/V-Mart for DeGrom/Cruz/Jordan Zim/Miggy. I’m not a Nelly Cruz fan, but I know I could probably flip him for someone similar who I do like, maybe like a Mookie Betts. Kinda want to move Tanaka before the elbow goes……

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @ryan_horner: Hmmmm, interesting deal. I don’t think I could do it, reason being while unloading Tanaka’s risk, I think you’re bringing more risk on. I love deGrom, but yeah Cruz with the power disppearing, Zim could be traded/hasn’t been great and Miggy is hurt. If Miggy was healthy I’d like it, but I don’t like the risk there I think you need a tad more back

  29. TTRA1N says:
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    What up JB. Just traded Hosmer/Teheran for Hamels today. Based on your ranks I thought I did well, but ofcourse Teheran is throwing a gem. Did I still win this trade? Roto league.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @TTRA1N: What’s good man?! Yeah I think you won this one, I watched a bit of the Teheran game this afternoon and they were raving at his slider and he still didn’t come through unscathed. Given a tough matchup though… Nice work on the move!

      • TTRA1N says:
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        @JB Gilpin:
        Good lookin. Was worried cause how bad Hamels has been and how good Teheren looked. I didnt need Hosmer. Have Votto/Tiex.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @TTRA1N: Yeah Hamels has only been really bad the past few, and I have no faith in a big Teheran run.

  30. Eric B says:
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    Thanks for the reply above JB, ran out of room as usual. Was just about to say Hendricks got roughed up and Turner got snatched up this morning right after my post lol. So I’ll have to re-think my plan of action. My pitchers arent doing me any favors this week. One other arm I forgot is out there is Cingarini. So does that change anything for ya? Hendricks and Jungman are my bottom 2 arms. Still think I should hold on Hendricks or would you dump both for 2 of Vinny, Corbin and Cingarini?

    Not sure what I’m gonna do bat wise, with Freeman due back the 30th I’m going to have to drop someone anyway so I may hold off and drop Avisial for Freeman although you’re right I could use some speed. Problem is if I drop Semien for DeShields then I have no back up for SS, had Dyson but dropped him to stream Jungman and he has since been scooped up.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Eric B: Hah all good!

      Uggghhhh just missed haha. Yeah I’m holding Corbin over Hendricks in one league, so I would make that move too I think now. I’d take Vinny and Corbin. I don’t think you need to worry too much about backups for every position, I think Deshields as one backup MI spot is def fine and not necessary there either

      • Eric B says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks man, I really appreciate the advice, feel like I need to stick a check in the mail lol. I’m with you on Vinny and Corbin, gonna drop Jungman and Hendricks and add them both. Question is do I drop Semien or the even colder Avisial for DeShields?

  31. Ryan741 says:
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    JB, quick trade opinion, H2H points. I would be trading Max/Cargo or Ellsbury for Pujols/Stras/Liriano or Garrett Richards. Would you pull the trigger on this? Would almost prefer trading Ellsbury in our league opposed to Cargo. But not sure about trading Max to get those 2. I would be getting Stras with a 6th round keeper value as opposed to a first for Max, so there is that.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Ryan741: Hmmmm that one is close… Cargo as in COL Cargo or MIL Cargo? Guessing COL, man I’m having trouble. I am kinda throwing keeper values out, I think 6th for Strasburg and 1st for Max both seem exactly right to their ADPs in 2016. I’m kinda leaning no, I would wanna hold onto the best guy in the deal which is Max.

      • Ryan741 says:
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        @JB Gilpin now he’s countering with Ells/J Zim/Cargo (Colorado) schwarber for Stras/Samardzija/A Gon/Kipnis/Tomas. He really wants Schwarber in the deal. I hate Samardzija with a passion, but it feels like a deal I need to take

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Ryan741: Yeah Schwarber is a mad sell high for me in keepers too, especially since I am doubting he’s a C long term. Yeah that’s a huge haul to get back, Kipnis plus A Gon?! And a big upgrade at pitcher. I’d have to do it!

  32. D says:
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    JB,

    First time posting, so first I wanted to say I love reading your breakdowns, one of the best and most interesting things I look forward to reading regularly. Onto my questions.

    First question, I don’t see Buchholz in the top 100? His ERA, WHIP and K/9 all seem very solid? Reason I asked is someone in 12 team league recently dropped him and I was seriously considering picking him up (my team is pretty stacked at SP but you can never have enough if it’s legit).

    Second question, similar question for Bolsinger. He is at the end of my SP bench, but his stats are pretty nice too (low 3 era, whip tolerable, decent k/9), just curious why he isn’t higher on your list. You had Chavez pretty high for awhile with similar stats, I’m assuming you just like what you see better with some guys.

    Again keep up the great work and I appreciate any feedback on those guys.

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