Fantasy Baseball Advice

Ryan Madson finally took over for Brad Lidge.  This was only about three months in the making and after six separate endorsements by Manuel saying Lidge is their closer.  Ah fanabla, what a headache.  Ever since Brett Myers returned from his MMA training, fantasy baseballers (that’s you!) seem ready to put Myers in the closer role.  That would be too easy, right?  Right.  No, Madson’s the first guy to grab and maybe Myers sees time here and there.  I’d grab both of them, unless you have a bleeding ulcer, then I’d stay away.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks and leads the AL with 16 wins.  Shoot me now.  Seriously.  Shoot me and Randy Wolf while you’re at it.

Marlon Byrd – 9 for his last 14 with 2 homers and 7 RBIs.  He was having problems with kidney stones prior to this outburst, by I guess that problem passed.  (Pun point for Grey.)  Oh, and he’s single-handedly winning H2H leagues.

Francisco Liriano – Activated from the Disgraceful List and sent to the bullpen.  He still has no value.

Jake Peavy – Supposedly, he should be ready to go against the Mariners next week.  Was this whole elbow thing a ploy to face an NL-type offense?  BTW, the White Sox pulled the plug on this season already, why are they trying to get Peavy back in there?

John Maine – Will return for this Sunday’s game vs. the Phils.  He’ll be limited to around 70 pitches which will, uh, limit his value.

Ian Kinsler/Chris Davis/Nelson Cruz -  Because we all love a nice bit of schadenfreude, I present to you, frequent commenter, Zombie, “For those who revel in others’ misfortune, I present a Trifecta Ticker Tease as the Rangers wallop the Tribe today 10-0.  Those of us who own Kinsler, Davis, AND Cruz have returned from lunch, eagerly check the boxscore and see a combined 2 for 14,  0 RBI, 0 HR, 0 SB, and one goddamn Run…. The lone run only seems to punctuate the dearth of any additional production!  And for all you Esteban German owners out there, you deserve his 5 for 5 day, you bastards.”

Felipe Lopez – HR yesterday.  Now on pace for 10 homers and 7 steals.  Somewhere, Crapolanco smiles.

Bobby Scales – Ran head first into a wall, went down for a minute or two, then played a few more innings before being lifted for Sam Fuld.  Fuld, indeed.

Huston Street – Unable to return until early next week, according to Rockies pitching coach, Bob Apodaca.  I love that name.

Justin Maxwell – 3-for-5, 1 steal.  Could have some cheap speed for deep leagues, but he misses being a legitimate major leaguer by that much.

Carl Pavano – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  Now has 4 starts in a row where he’s been completely digestible.  He gets the Indians next.

Rafael Soriano – 1/3 IP, 2 ER as he blew the save.  Member when his ERA was around 1.50, like, a month and a half ago?  Yeah, me too.  Now it’s near 3.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  And it rolls on.

Carlos Delgado/Jose Reyes – Both said they want to return in the last two weeks of the season.  The Mets will just need to win 25 of their remaining 12 games to clinch a playoff berth.

Randy Wolf – Had his start scratched with a tweaked elbow.  Sounds like an excuse to rest him as they head towards the playoffs.  Kuroda will take his start.

James Loney – HR yesterday.  Now has two in three games, while batting near .400 for the last week.

Scott Podsednik – 4-for-7 with a steal.  He’s been a top 30 outfielder this year and the most valuable White Sox hitter this year.  Cust kayin’.

Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-5 with a steal.  Now has 11 homers and 12 steals in 211 at-bats.  Prepare for an offseason barrage of fantasy baseball ‘perts telling you you have to own him next year and causing his value to skyrocket.

Jose Lopez – 3-for-4, HR yesterday.  Now has 3 homers in 5 games while batting near .500.

Krispie Young – Hit another homer yesterday.  Now has five in 4 games.  I’m sure we’ll see him again in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Adam Wainwright – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks with his 18th win.  He wins the Cy Young, right?  Not rhetorical.  Seriously, he does, right?

Matt Holliday – Left the game with a bruised knee.  He said he should be good by the Cards next game as long as he never has to play in Oakland again.

Albert Pujols – 2 HRs yesterday.  After the 2nd homer, Pujols’s BFF Lugo jumped around like Pujols called the shot beforehand in the dugout.  So this got me thinking, and maybe I’m just devious, but if you were a random baseball player in the playoffs, let’s say Casey Blake, wouldn’t you have your teammate pretend you called a homer?  Beforehand, Casey Blake and Orlando Hudson make a deal.  If Blake hits a homer, Hudson will jump around in the dugout screaming, “He called it!”  Like Fox Sports wouldn’t run with this story and suddenly Casey Blake would be the star of the World Series, get endorsements — Hi, I’m Casey Blake, this is a Sprint phone and I called it. — and he would get a huge contract.  Casey Blake would be synonymous with clutch.  Oh my God, I’m Scott Boras.

I already did the catchers, 2nd basemen, shortstops, 3rd basemen, outfielders and starters to target for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I skipped the 1st basemen on purpose because I don’t think you should be taking a flier on 1st basemen.  You need some anchors for your hitting.  Then someone commented yesterday asking for the 1st basemen to target and the course of Razzball history was changed forever, like when Marty got into that DeLorean.  I haven’t changed my mind that you shouldn’t be taking a flier on a 1st basemen, but sometimes things are out of your control or you need a corner man or a Utility guy.  This is a supplement to the top 20 1st basemen of 2009 fantasy baseball.  If you’re feeling especially industrious, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 1st basemen to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Chris Duncan – Colby Rasmus has moved above him on the depth charts, but I think Duncan still gets 300 ABs and nears 20 HRs.  Unless LaRussa doesn’t want anyone coaching his pitching staff.  Dave Duncan, “Muahahahahahahaha…” Pause.  Duncan, “And you know that!”

Mike Jacobs – He’ll probably hit .250 and batting in the Royals order will do him no favors, but he could hit 30 HRs and have one of those lucky BABIP years and end up hitting .275.  Though I wouldn’t team him up with a Dunn, Krispie or Uggla-type.

Casey Kotchman – Kendry Morales minus 3 home runs.

Kendry Morales – Casey Kotchman plus 3 home runs.  See how that worked.

James Loney – Is he that different than Conor Jackson?  Rhetorical!

Paul Konerko – Konerko hit 9 HRs in the month of September last year.  ZIPS has him for 25 HRs, hitting .269 in 502 ABs.  That seems doable.  He had a very unlucky 2008 with injuries and BABIP.  He’s only 33; he just seems like a non-Latin 45.

Nick Swisher – I wouldn’t shy away from Swisher because of projected playing time.  I think he takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year.  The bigger issue with Swisher is he might hit .235.

Billy Butler – Bust can refer to Butler’s major league career thus far or his moobs.  I haven’t talked that much about Butler thus far in 2009.  Potential for 20 HRs and a .300 average.  He’s crushing the ball so far in spring training.  Exciting, huh?  Yeah, he crushed the ball in spring training last year and ended up demoted to the minors on May 29th.  He’s still very young so we shouldn’t write him off as a March-only hitter. (George Steinbrenner once referred to Dave Winfield as Mr. May because of his early season exploits.  What’s someone called who only hits well in spring training?  Mr. Grapefruit.  He’s not just hot.  He’s not just red hot.  He’s ruby red hot!) For this year with Billy Butler, I think Mr. Grapefruit can carry his tart sweetness into the regular season and not turn sour.

Because Casey Kotchman is most noteworthy (in my eyes) for having the longest known case of mononucleosis, it makes sense he’d be considered a sleeper.  Only, not necessarily, a fantasy baseball sleeper.  More like a Prince Valium one.  After the trade to the Braves last year, Casey Kotchman hit 2/20/.237.  “Write him off as a once interesting prospect that never reached his potential,” says some random crotchety old baseball scout.  I hear ya, random old baseball crotchety scout, but I find something making me keep come back to him.  Sorta like my man-wood for Alex J. Gordon.  Maybe I can’t let a bad thing die.  This would explain every previous relationship that I’ve ever been in prior to the current one.  So what is it that excites me about Casey Kotchman in 2009 fantasy baseball?

In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks.  Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure.  For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible.  Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves.  He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power.  Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.)  I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2.  Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales.  I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential.  So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman.  Not really that excited.  If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman.  How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever?  You’re welcome!

The other day we went over the top 20 catchers for 2009 and today we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball. This was after going over our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball and top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  All this can be found in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings page.  This top 20 list could probably go to 40 and still have worthwhile names on it, so after we go through all the top 20 lists for every position, maybe I’ll add some more.  Is this the 28th day of Christmas or some shizz?  No, I’m just real giving like Bono and Chris Tucker on an Africa trip.  As with the catchers, the first basemen are broken up into tiers.  Also, there’s some guys below other guys that I want more. They’re below on this list because they can be drafted later than the other schmohawks.  Also, check out our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and 2009 projections:

1. Albert Pujols – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Albert Pujols’s projections.

2. Miguel Cabrera – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

3. Ryan Howard – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Ryan Howard’s projections.

4. Mark Teixeira – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

5. Prince Fielder – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Prince Fielder’s projections.

6. Lance Berkman – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Lance Berkman’s projections.

7. Justin Morneau – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Votto.  I call this tier, “If you didn’t get one the 1st basemen in the first tiers, you better get one in this tier.”  I prefer a guaranteed 30 home run hitter from my 1st baseman, so I tend to miss Morneau.  And that’s not miss as in “long for.”  2009 Projections:  90/27/115/.285

8. Adrian Gonzalez – Imagine Adrian Gonzalez traded out of Petco.  Ah… Dare to dream. (Speaking of dreams, I had this dream where there’s two unicorns having sex and right before one… becomes satisfied, he practices the withdrawal method and does his business on a giant, oversized toothbrush.  And, in my home, that’s how toothpaste became known as unicorn jizz.  But I digress.)  2009 Projections:  85/34/95/.280

9. Kevin Youkilis -  Morneau is very close to Youuuuuk and the former goes way before him.  (Is it just me, or does former and latter always trip you up?)  2009 Projections:  95/25/110/.295

10. Joey Votto – I already went over why Votto’s a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  This doesn’t mean he’s going to outproduce the top guys on this list, but I could see Votto taking Berkman’s spot at number six for 2010.  I’m a big believer.  2009 Projections:  85/28/100/.300/12

11. Derrek Lee – This a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Carlos Pena.  I call this tier, “For better or worse, you know what you’re getting with these guys.”  Derrek Lee has played in 150+ games in 7 of the past 8 years and besides 2005 when he hit 46 home runs, he’s never really showed much power.  When I was writing this up, I was looking at how Derrek Lee’s career has taken shape and I realized something.  In 2009, Lee’s going to be 33 years old for the majority of the season and he’s not putting together a HOF career.  For some reason, I thought he was a much better player stat-wise.  This was really a personal observation that didn’t have much to do with fantasy baseball.  Carry on.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.295/8

12. Garrett Atkins – The Holliday trade to the A’s hurts Atkins value too.  And, frankly, for the last three years, Atkins was hurting his own value.  He’s gone from 29 to 25 to 21 home runs since 2006.  If you were taking the SATs, the next number in that sequence would be 17.  His slugging percentage has been following suit, as well.  The way Atkins is headed, he’s going to need 2nd base eligibility to have any value by 2010.   2009 Projections:  80/24/90/.290

13. Carlos Delgado – Delgado could be the poster boy for someone who won’t exceed expectations in 2009.  I almost put Delgado above Atkins, cause I think he might outproduce Atkins, but then I thought about if I were drafting and whether I would draft Delgado before Atkins.  I wouldn’t.  2009 Projections:  80/31/110/.260

14. Carlos Pena – Here’s the last guy in this tier of boring guys.  I don’t think guys in this tier will be on many 1st place teams in September.  2009 Projections:  75/32/95/.265

15. Chris Davis – Now we’re in a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cantu.  I call this tier, “Too interesting to be in the above tier, but too risky as well.”  Everyone and Voletta Wallace is going after Chris Davis in 2009 fantasy drafts.  I added my own hype when I posted, Chris Davis, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper.  Okay, sleeper my coolie hole.  Not after Bill James gave him MVP projections.  2009 Projections:   75/30/95/.275/3

16. Jorge Cantu – He’s showed that he can be absolutely worthless for entire seasons so I’d be careful about making Cantu your 1st baseman, but, as a corner man, you can do much worse.  He’s also going to be the magical 27-years-old in 2009.  (An age when hitters supposedly peak and porn stars hopefully retire.)  2009 Projections:  80/25/90/.270/5

17. Aubrey Huff – Now we’re in a new one person tier.  Let’s call this tier, “Guys Named Aubrey Huff.”  In 2008, Huff outperformed about ten of the names listed above him here.  Whatevs.  I wouldn’t draft him on any team and couldn’t, in good conscience or while conscious, tell you he should go in the top ten.  2009 Projections:  75/22/75/.280

18. Mike Jacobs – This last tier, goes from here to Jackson.  I call this tier, “Late fliers.”  Jacobs’s average in 2008 of .247 was actually a little bit worse than it should’ve been.  He’s more of a .260 hitter.  I know, big whoop.  Well, it’s a small enough whoop to make him intriguing late in a draft.  Though the Royals situation is a bit murky with their seventeen 1B/DHs.  2009 Projections:  65/28/75/.260

19. Nick Swisher – Is Swisher going to be a doughy bagel, i.e., a top ten performer?  Nah, you just got carried away with yourself.  I see a small keep-expectations-in-check rebound coming after a dreadful 2008.  He’s ranked 19th, but he could exceed this ranking.  2009 Projections:  70/30/80/.255

20. Conor Jackson -  Conor Jackson almost equals Derrek Lee.  Cust kayin’.  2009 Projections:  85/17/85/.300/10

After the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Carlos Guillen – Sure, C. Guile is sneaky fast, which am0unts to, like, 10 steals.  At 1st base, I’d actually prefer Huff.  2009 Projections:  80/14/80/.300/10

James Loney – Since I’m such a Pollyanna, I’m going to leave you on a positive note.  Loney is a cheap-as-dog-balls Derrek Lee with some slight upside.  No, Loney didn’t pay me to say that.  Don’t expect too much from Loney and you might be pleasantly surprised.  2009 Projections:  75/17/85/.295/7

Mike Gonzalez is now the closer of the Braves. Right? Right…. Kinda. He’s going to be closing games when he’s available. Cox may take it easy on him since he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery. Gonzalez was not rushed through rehab, so that’s a good thing. Barring an injury, there’s no reason why Gonzalez can’t save 20 games this year. (<—– That’s my projections for Gonzalez.) Soriano might grab another couple and Acosta might snatch a few more. Mike Gonzalez is not some schmohawk that just turned up on the Braves roster. He was an effective closer on the Pirates. He can be again. If Ryan Franklin and Salomon Torres can earn saves, then goddamnit, so can Mike Gonzalez. Okay, now go pick him up. As if he’s still on waivers in any league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball yesterday:

Carlos Zambrano – Left the game with an apparent injury to his shoulder. Maybe it was the 3.7 million pitches he’s thrown in the last year or two.

Jeremy Guthrie – Guess his line. Seriously. I’ll wait. *taps foot* Okay, I’ll tell you. 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 Ks, no decision.

Russell Branyan – Do I have to mention him? People know what’s here, right? Three Outcome Dude — HR/K/BB.

Oliver Perez – **Writing this before the game** 6 IP, 7 Ks, 2.00 WHIP, 6.00 ERA **okay, back** I was high on Ks, but right on for IP, WHIP and ERA. I have to say, I didn’t feel confident about this one because he’s so erratic. I started him in one league where I’m hurting for pitching and now I’ve dropped him for Campillo (whose next start is against the M’s).

James Loney – Hit HR yesterday, now hitting over .390 for June. He still yawnstipates me.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Sore back that could land him on the DL. Headley started at 3rd and hit a HR. Yo, Kouz, you’ve been Pipp’d. (Now Headley just needs to start another 2129 straight games. Just in case, we should call him Biscuit Pants.)

Barry Zito – 5 R in 2 IP.  SI.com informs us he’s not provided adequate value for his large free agent contract.  Thanks, SI.com.  I guess it could be worse – they could’ve put him on the cover and jinxed him.  That prevented a maple bat from shattering and slicing his guitar strumming hand. Hey, Zito — stubble is for winners!

Johnny Damon – He’s hitting .433 in 67 AB since June 1st. Cust kayin’.

Homer Bailey – Back to the minors. I have a vision of what I’m going to write in March of ‘09, “Don’t draft Homer Bailey. Way too risky. BTW, I love these new flying cars.”

Chase Utley – He is 0 for his last 20.  Just as disturbing, a cat in Philadelphia was left stranded in a tree as a little girl cried for help.   We still believe in ya, Chase.  It’s just a bad week, Champ, right?

Nomar Garciaparra – Hit a home run and is due to be back next week as the Dodgers SS. Sounds like everything’s going right for Nomar, but he looked glum after the game. When asked why, he said, “I forgot to make Mia lunch. She’s gonna kill me.” Aw, Nomar. That’s a sad emoticon for you.

Geovany Soto – Hitting .213 since June 1.  Next thing you know he’ll be picking a fight with Carlos Zambrano.

Hard Rock Cafe – It was announced that a Hard Rock Cafe will run a restaurant in the Yankee outfield.  Can’t wait to hear this guy jam there.

Sidney Ponson – The Yanks just signed him.  Hey Bawston, I got your Colon right here!