A prospect who will play his home games at Coors Field with formidable ISO numbers in the minor leagues? Sign me up. Sign everybody up.
It was easy to buy in, but McMahon hasn’t lived up to the hype.
With Rockies prospects in particular, evaluation is difficult. At nearly every level of the Rockies minor league system there is a park that heavily inflates home runs for a particular handedness according to Stat Corner. McCormick Field of the Asheville Tourists is advantageous for left-handed bats. The Hangar of the Lancaster Jethawks is one the most home run-inflating parks in the minors for either handedness of hitter. Dunkin’ Donuts Park for the Hartford Yard Goats is great for right-handed bats. Isotopes Park of the Albuquerque Isotopes is in the Pacific Coast League, which is all you really need to know. Memorial Stadium of the Boise Hawks is neutral for home runs, yet my conversations with an individual in their media department gave me the perspective that even in Boise, balls do carry.
This makes live looks at McMahon essentially to fully understanding the level he is playing at and what he projects to be. The funny thing is that I got live looks at McMahon in Double-A when the Yard Goats were homeless, playing an entire season on the road despite a few games in Norwich, CT. I bought fully bought in at the time, but I may have been overzealous.
McMahon graded out as a 60 raw power bat with discipline that miraculously improved as he graduated through the minors. His swing has always been silky smooth, even with its length. A strikeout rate around 20 percent now feels like it will take some work rather than the 50th-percentile outcome it once felt projected to be. The hype around McMahon decayed because he couldn’t steal consistent playing time in 2017, ending up with only 24 plate appearances after the Rockies signed Ian Desmond to play a mix of first base and outfield. I tend to defer to organizational assessments of players when a signing blocks a prospect the industry determines “ready.” (This goes back to how important it is to refrain from aggressive stat-sheet scouting with Rockies prospects). The Rockies didn’t think McMahon was ready last season and they were probably right, even if the Desmond contract looks terrible at the moment. This season has been much of the same with small windows of playing time starting to shape the road ahead.
With those small windows McMahon has developed… in weird ways.
Each of the last two seasons in the minor leagues, McMahon has struggled versus left-handed pitching. This season has been oddly different.
Please, blog, may I have some more?