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Baseball Twitter is one of my favorite things in the world. It’s often full of interaction between analysts and fans, even analysts and other analysts, but every so often, we’re graced with the thoughts of major league players. Those we covet for their statistical production on our fake baseball teams sometimes descend from olympus to dwell amongst us fans. Sometimes that interaction is jovial, leaving us all with fuzzy feelings of joy and hope for a better world. Other times it’s between Trevor Bauer and Lance McCullers.

Last week, the topic was spin rate, and how one can increase it. I’ll do my best to plot this spat out as concisely as possible, with links to tweets.

  • Bauer insinuates the Astros are using pine tar to increase spin rate.
  • McCullers calls foul.
  • Bauer says his issue is with the MLB, not the Astros; claims pine tar increases spin rate.
  • Alex Bregman calls Trevor, “Tyler” Bauer.
  • World asks how Bauer knows pine tar increases spin rate (no tweet, “the world” doesn’t have a Twitter account… or does it… @KanyeWest).
  • Bauer quite possibly uses pine tar in first inning of May 2 start to prove point (successfully).

We need more of this. We need all of this, all the time. Dam, I love baseball.

You’re here for fantasy content, however, so why does spin rate matter for your fantasy baseball team?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

“Romantic scouting date” is exactly what it sounds like: Ralph, myself, and a baseball game. We ventured up to slightly warmer weather than Hartford brought us a few weekends ago for more looks at Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Ralph wrote about it (right here) and I had a great time looking at the mechanics of Sean Reid-Foley (TOR) and Dillon Tate (NYY) on my Twitter feed.

For the sake of brevity, let’s get right into two pitchers I’ve had my eye on in this edition of Pitcher Thoughts.

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Each week on the Razzball Prospect Podcast, Ralph and I often touch on prospects we expect to see within the coming weeks. Over the weekend I’m convinced every General Manager in baseball listened to our podcast and decided to rid us of all talking points for our next show. Dissapoting? Indeed. But does this mean we’re finally getting more looks at prospects on the big stage? Absolutely.

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Each of the last two weeks, I’ve looked at pitchers who changed something in their repertoire. The first change I looked at was my opinion of starters – Take that for data! – before that exact trio started generating substantial buzz (Corbin, Bundy, Lucchesi). I then navigated to velocity changes on two arms I was particularly intrigued by (Berrios, Castillo). Now to complete the trinity, I wanted to look at what I consider “hipster pitchers.”

Said in layman’s terms – are hipsters layman now? – these arms are following the breaking-ball trend that has taken over the game, buoyed by the philosophy that your best pitch should be thrown more than the past would suggest. Breaking balls are the most successful pitch at inducing whiffs for the majority of pitchers, that’s why the majority of starters, when broken down by pitch usage and count, will tend to utilize breaking balls with two strikes (duh!). They’re also the most fun to gif up – just ask one of the most popular baseball accounts on Twitter, @PitchingNinja.

Speaking of pitchers, if you like the sound of my voice, which you can judge for yourself weekly on the Razzball Prospect Podcast I co-host with Ralph, I’m doing also doing a weekly “Pitcher Thoughts” podcast. It’s available on the Apple Podcast app, Stitcher, Spotify, and Soundcloud. Shameless plug!

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First off, go read Ralph’s post on Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. I always assumed – and I could be wrong – that many think us Razzball-ers are confined to our computers, changing our eyeglass prescription on a monthly basis as we go bleary-eyed from starting at our MLB.tv streams and Baseball Savant tabs. That is hogwash. Once a week, I make sure to step outside for an increment of 15-20 minutes. On Saturday, I took a leap of faith and decided to extend that window to a whole three hours as I absorbed a Hartford Yard Goats (this is their terrifyingly fantastic mascot) game with the almighty @ProspectJesus and fellow Razzball-ite @PaulTheMartin. It was a grand time, with extended looks at multiple top-20 prospects.

Alas, that is not what this post is about. I just couldn’t think of an intro and I wanted to brag about my weekend.

More bragging: we’ve been slaughtering it here on Razzball of late. Grey has made some fantastic sleeper calls including Patrick Corbin and others. My last pitcher-based column included Dylan Bundy, Jose Berrios, and Joey Lucchesi, three pitchers who spun fantastic outings in the past week and likely weeks to come.

Watching copious amount of baseball over the last 10 days, I noticed a slew of pitchers who were either up or down in velocity on certain pitches or entire repertoires. Analysis tends to hover around this data point for the first month of the season simply because it doesn’t take a lot for pitch velocity to stabilize, especially compared to other statistics we love to look at.

A lot of these risers and fallers, you likely already know about (think Kenley Jansen). So instead, I chose two pitchers with changes in velocity that can be linked to another aspect of their performance; maybe a little bit under the radar…

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I’m not sure how the average fan watches baseball. I assume most have a team they follow, sticking to that squad on a daily basis, regardless of continual misery or delight coming as the product of the entertainment. My strong fandom with for one team tends to win out, but I often watch games particularly with a focus on starting pitchers. This is how I plan out my days and nights. Apple TV’s multi-view feature is a godsend for this and my recent realization that MLB.tv’s desktop version has eliminated the ability to watch multiple games at once is a travesty. But I’ll survive, especially as this will help me focus my watching to fewer games in the hopes of digesting more nuanced points of interest from starter to starter.

Balance is key! Well… not when we’re talking about Dylan Bundy’s slider.

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The big draft weekend is over. We made it.

Completing multiple NFBCs has left me broken and tattered; my spirit longing for the season to start and early panic to set in signaling my investment in certain players was clearly too high or low (stupid!).

I was planning on doing a deep sleepers post for my own site, but in an effort to consolidate, I’ve decided to move that to the pantheon that is Razzball.

First, however, I’d like to leave two general thoughts and impressions regarding draft season. I’m particularly interested in whether I’m alone in these observations, whether anybody disagrees, or whether you noticed anything worth mentioning. Comment below, I’d be happy to hear your thoughts.

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I become obsessed with things. Sometimes it can be a particular food or an album (this Jimi Hendrix “vault cleaning” as Rolling Stone describes currently has my ear). Other times, as my mind is often tuned to baseball topics, I incessantly think about a concept from the diamond or evolution of a new statistic. Pitch tunneling is the recent topic earning a spot in my head.

This isn’t the first time I’ve gravitated towards pitch tunneling. Last year I wrote a column about Dylan Bundy’s cutter-slider, it’s usage, and why that pitch is one reason I irrationally like his volatile arm. As I’ve rekindled my interest in the concept, it was time for a refresh after Baseball Prospectus’ recent update. My motive was simple: combining what we know about a pitcher and what we can learn from tunneling might provide us with reasons for optimism.

I’ll admit, this post might get a little bit convoluted, so if you’re not in the mood to try and understand pitch tunneling and determine how much you value it, feel free to hop to one of my last three Razz articles – there’s something for everybody (On Scott Kingery; On ADP discrepancy; On Michael Wacha). Or just skip down to the heading for Patrick Corbin. I’ll try my best to keep things as simple and concise as possible. Teaching a concept is often a great form of learning, so I’ll admit that writing this post, in a way, helps me to understand the topic and its associated statistics better.

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Drafting players who won’t break camp with a team inside 200 overall signals we are ready for the 2018 season. If you have confidence in the draftee, however, then is it safe to say that aggression is warranted?

Over the last three days of NFBC drafts, Scott Kingery’s draft stock has ranged between 178 and 362, with his average owner pulling the trigger in the 24th around. This represents substantial inflation from his January and February draft stock, which sat him outside of the 30th round on average.

In scenarios where spring training confirms the talent and readiness of a prospect, it’s natural, with the lack of major league statistics to form a consensus on a projection, for assets like Kingery to be appealing given the unknown. Sometimes this works out. Remember Kris Bryant and Cody Bellinger?

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Let’s follow up on a post of mine from a few weeks ago. Before Spring Training kicked off, I took a quick look at two players – Christian Yelich and Byron Buxton – with differences between Rudy’s Player Rater for 15-team NFBC leagues and NFBC ADP data.

It was easy to get carried away with Yelich and Buxton, but for this version I’ll expand out to four players.

If you’re interested in taking a look at the differentials I’ll be using, feel free to navigate to this google sheet I made and will be using as reference. The NFBC data is from drafts between 2/15/2018 and 3/3/2018, about 100 drafts in total. I’ll reiterate once again that this isn’t exactly a one-for-one comparison, as the numbers I’m using for Rudy’s rankings are purely on ranked dollar-value output, while NFBC data is where the player is actually being drafted. The merit here is highlighting standouts between the two, as opposed to relying on one as the true indicator of a given player (…Rudy’s projections are essentially gospel for me). I’ll also focus on players inside the top 200 overall and those whom Razzball is higher than NFBC ADP on. These should be some of your value targets if you’re a faithful Razzballer.

The 2018 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join with prizes! All the exclamation points!

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Michael Wacha holds a special place in my heart. When Albert Pujols left the Cardinals for the west coast during December of 2011, I partially disowned the player I was most fond of in my childhood; the reason I became a Cardinals fan back in 2001. (Hopefully I didn’t just lose a lot of readers…)

Having a vague understanding of compensatory draft picks, I paid attention to the 2012 MLB Draft. When the 19th pick came up, and St. Louis selected the tall righty from Texas A&M, I associated some of my fleeting distaste for Pujols with the gift given due to his departure. The logic of disowning a player for nothing more than assuming his blind loyalty, which no player should have, in retrospect, was terrible. But the product of my now-distant bitterness was admiration for Wacha.

That affinity soared when he broke out during the 2013 Postseason, mowing through the Pirates and Dodgers before collapsing in Fenway during the final game of the World Series. Wacha then evolved into the low hanging fruit of regression candidates when 2015 finished, fulling that tag a year later when the product didn’t match his peripherals. But an aggregated look at last season stands out for the 26-year-old. A noticeable jump in strikeouts, coupled with usage tinkering, results in an intriguing starting pitcher who lasts into the 20th round of drafts on average.

Rudy has Wacha 175th overall on Razzball’s Player Rater for 15-team NFBC leagues, a solid five rounds ahead of his current NFBC price tag.  Grey is even more aggressive on Wacha, ranking him as a viable SP3, inside his top 40 pitchers and inside his top 125 overall. There is love for Wacha on Razzball and I support the aggression.

It’s hard to think of Wacha without citing his injury history and his ADP may be a tangible result of his unfortunate doctor visits. I alternate my perception of Wacha’s injuries between two categories of thought: development and mechanical.

Development is all eye-test or feel based. I hold a space in my mind, with every young arm, that aging and growth can help mature one’s body out of recurring injuries. Others are simply just injury prone. If that doesn’t quench your thirst for understanding – it shouldn’t – then the folks over on Top Velocity‘s YouTube channel might help.

I’ve cited their expertise multiple times with Ralph on the Razzball Prospect Podcast, and do so again here to fulfill the “mechanical” portion of my thoughts on Wacha’s injuries. One of the things they point out is the lack of engagement in Wacha’s lower half. It might look like he’s driving off his back leg after you observe his toe drag away from the rubber, but that’s a deceptive trick of the eye when you compare his lower half to a pitcher like Noah Syndergaard.

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Eno Sarris has departed from Fangraphs. One of my favorite writers in the industry was a dream interview of mine and I spoke with him twice (one; two). He is an inspiration for how I’ve adapted as a writer in this space, taking a clever approach to analysis… and music. [Jay’s Note: And he really knows his beers. Like, more than we all think. He actually filled the hotel bathtub with ice and microbrews and was the beer sommelier the whole night at a Spring Training party with Grey and other industry peeps. I’d say I smelled his hair when he wasn’t looking, but his hair is OMNIPRESENT. If you’re in a 100-foot radius you can’t help but run into it…]

Prior to any of his chats on Fangraphs, he would a link to a song; good, bad, weird, or confusing, your taste didn’t matter. It was there for you to consume. While I won’t do this religiously as the 2018 season nears, for I question where my musical taste falls among our audience of readers, when opportunity presents itself, I act.

The 2018 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join with prizes! All the exclamation points!

Please, blog, may I have some more?