We back baby! Spring Training is already starting up (We desperately need shorter games, but like 2 extra weeks of Spring Training?!?! I know, I know, WBC, but whatever!), we’re about to March, drafts about to be drafting… Love this time of year.
So note to self – get the rankings done earlier in 2018. Second note to self – bitch slap Grey when I see him in person next week for making everyone else look so bad, with his ranks done so early! But hey, not like he’s got other sports to worry about! Speaking of, if you haven’t played fantasy basketball yet, shameless plug sentence/link for you to come over and check us out on hoops! Play in some Hoops RCLs next year maybe!
Ok, JB’s ADHD voice, back to bidness! My yearly baseball magnum opus is finally complete – weeks in the works – and went from 9600 words last year to 9700! Weird they were so similar… I’m kinda like Tolstoy, they just gonna keep getting longer, hah! Of course no one is expected to read War & Peace in one sitting, so take your time getting through this bad boy! I’ll wait!
I’m pumped to get the Pitcher Profiles ramped up again, better quality GIFs, and another year with the Gamescore+, which maybe we can start to automate with more batted ball data out there. RUDY?!?!?! WHERE’S RUDY?!?!?!?! SOMEONE GET ME RUDY!!! Also, if you missed the wrap up I put together a few weeks ago, you can check out how Grey and I did vs. ESPN with the 2016 SP ranks.
A question that is always debated and weirdly always different for each ranker/rankings sets is: are these your personal rankings? Adjusted for ADP? Are they how you would draft, or how you think guys will finish? I’ve decided I have the be all, end all answer. I did these ranks initially without looking at ADP or any other rankings sets. The ranks are my personal ranks for how I would value guys one over the other, and then I’ll use this list to be malleable for every draft/site/league format. Pigeonholing ranks to adjust for ADP means you’re stuck looking at one list of ADP data. So there’s my answer for how I approach rankings.
Anyway, here we go! Find below my top 100 SP for 2017. And as always, my top-5 sleepers (to varying degrees) are James Paxton, Sean Manaea, Blake Snell, Ivan Nova & Reynaldo Lopez. Plus bonus #6 – Tyler Skaggs – moved him up after re-looking at his data. Apparently I love my lefties this year!
JB’s Top 100 SP
(rankings based on 12-team Roto)
| Rank | SP, Team | NOTE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw, LAD | I don’t really see any reason to bump him from #1. Yeah, the back issue could crop up at any time, but an elbow or shoulder issue could for anyone else too! 1.57 ERA with 141 Ks in 115 IP until that last start when his back flared up on June 26, and he still ended the season fine. |
| 2 | Max Scherzer, WAS | Knuck til ya buck, WHAT?! Mad Max should be a Fury Road again, if that knuckle is OK! Hesitantly keeping him #2, although as Spring progresses, he could easily fall a few spots if it looks like he’ll miss significant time. |
| 3 | Madison Bumgarner, SF | Looks like top 3 are universally the same (minus Max noise), as MadBum is off his 3rd straight 9+ K rate season, with his highest strikeout rate to date (9.97). Interestingly though, since his BABIP was low and he stranded nearly 80% of batters, he had his worst xFIP of his career in a full season (only was worse in 18 starts in 2010). Meh, I just think that’s random fluctuations in the numbers, he should be fine. |
| 4 | Noah Syndergaard, NYM | Obviously what a prime piece of Scandinavian man meat needs to do in an offseason is to add more muscle! Reportedly added 17 lbs – I don’t care about that kind of offseason “best shape of my life” hooblah – but I’m gonna bet the bone spurs will be fine and he’s gonna have a big 2017. I thought I remembered him having a slight strikeout or performance lull last year, but damn, he was pretty consistent. Pitcher Profile – May 18, 2015 |
| 5 | Yu Darvish, TEX | F it, I’m doing it, all my chips in Yu basket! It was only a couple of years ago when I had him #2 (I think Grey did as well), and after returning from TJ last year, still had a preposterous 11.85 K rate in 100.1 innings last year. His WHIP was solid too, with a career-best BB rate. His fastball was at a career best velo too! All the ancillary stuff looks great, I’m a buyer. |
| 6 | Corey Kluber, CLE | Me n Klubot, sitting in a tree! Ever since he rocked for my fantasy squads in his 2014 breakout, he’s been my expressionless assassin. While he may have slightly regressed last year (value saved by getting 18 wins vs. only 9 in 2015), I still fully believe in a 9+ K rate, and his last 21 starts he was 14-3 with a 2.61 ERA. If he can iron out having a bad start to the season, he could easily be the Cy. Unlike that schlub who won it last yr… |
| 7 | Chris Sale, BOS | Dude, I love Chris Sale! His flying-spider delivery is one of my favorite to watch in baseball. But I was surprised to be one of the few that’s gonna have him outside my top-5… While his K rate dropped dramatically, 9.25:1.79 is still phenomenal, but interestingly his xFIP was nearly a run higher last year compared to 2015, with comparable ERAs. He definitely was unlucky in 2015, I hesitate to say he got “a little lucky” last year, but I do find it hard to see him have a sub-3.20 ERA. And as well documented, his fastball velo intentionally dropped nearly 2 MPH because he wanted to get faster outs and last longer. Think about baseball if you wanna last longer, don’t start throwing slower! Crazy-ass stat for you though – in his career, he’s gotten 572 Ks with his slider, yet only walked 32 with it. Dude! |
| 8 | Justin Verlander, DET | Sure, there’s a lot of negatives to pick out ranking Verlander at 8. He’s older, was bad for a few years before 2016, had kinda a lucky BABIP, his xFIP wasn’t great… But dayum, 254 strikeouts in 2016?! A big reason I liked him last year and ranked him above the consensus was the hot 2nd half, and it looks like he just needed to get healthy again to get back to form. Fastball was hardest since 2012, he has adjusted to throwing his slider harder and more often than ever before, and shifted away from his change-up. Sure, maybe a little scary for arm health, but we’re talking pitchers here. Everyone has scary arm health! I’d be happy with JV as the 8th SP off the board. |
| 9 | Jon Lester, CHC | Another “JB’s fave calls of 2016!”, Lester ended up as the #2 pitcher on the Razzball player rater, proving slow and steady can indeed win the race. He got a little lucky in BABIP and LOB%, but he’s off 9 seasons of 191+ innings, velo and pitch arsenal all still look great, and he pitches for the best team in baseball. Slow and steady should bring you a top-10 finish yet again. |
| 10 | Stephen Strasburg, WAS | Ya know, telling the media he’s gonna throw his slider/cutter a ton less so he won’t have elbow issues isn’t exactly the best foreshadowing… Hah! That said, unbelievable 183 Ks in only 147.2 innings, good for a 11.15:2.68 K:BB 3/4 of the way to a 200 inning season. If you hit the lottery and he stays healthy, he easily could push to be a top 4 or 5 overall pitcher. The stuff, peripherals, division, good team, etc. all are there. |
| 11 | Jake Arrieta, CHC | Sooooo, last year wasn’t quite the vintage Arrieta. Was he awesome-Arrieta long enough to become Vintage?! After two years of 9+ Ks and about 2 BB, 8.67 Ks to a crazy-high 3.47 walks. Since his BABIP stayed low and he still got a boatload of wins, his value didn’t hurt too much, but his xFIP was a full run higher than the previous two seasons. The biggest culprit I can find is kinda buried in Fangraphs’ stats – on his season page it parses out his cutter, but in Pitchf/x, it lists the pitch as a “Slider” – and he threw it 989 times in 2015, for a .184 BAA and 88:18 K:BB. Last year, only 561 times for a .221 BAA and only 32:18 K:BB. 2015, 90.3 MPH on that pitch, last year, down to 89.2… So much of his effectiveness is that big-cutter/little-slider, whatever you wanna call it, and it really hurt with him not having that pitch as elite. I obviously don’t think he’s going to turn into a pumpkin, but I’m not as high this year as others. Pitcher Profile – July 7, 2014 |
| 12 | David Price, BOS | I’m not sure if there was a more annoying pitcher last year than Price… He was a top-10 “safe” SP pick, and just pulled down his pants and shat all over Fenway for the first few months. That said, he still finished 16th on the Razzball Player rater, and grinded his way to 228 Ks and 17 wins. If he can just be a smidge better in the first half, I don’t see any reason why he can’t be right at the 10th overall cusp at the end of the season. |
| 13 | Carlos Carrasco, CLE | You know me, gone gone chasin’ K-rate! Well over 9 the past 3 seasons for this late breakout guy, and would’ve had another solid season if not for breaking his hand on a comebacker. If anything, it means his arm is that little bit extra fresher for 2017! Pitcher Profile – September 15, 2014 |
| 14 | Johnny Cueto, SF | Ugh, this is where I hit my first roadblock in the ranks. Instead of going nuts for a youngun this early (cough, Joe Ross), I decided to rank #14 safe. Although these next few pitchers I’m likely passing on in drafts… With Cueto – yeah I was way wrong last year, but his velo dropped 1 MPH on his fastball and curiously 2.2 MPH on the slider, and while pitching in SF will mask some stuff, he’s maybe an 8 K-rate guy, so not quite the upside as the SP above. |
| 15 | Jacob deGrom, NYM | I think Grey is a little deDumb for liking deGrom as much as he does… He wasn’t “bad” last year, but lost 1.6 ticks on the fastball, had an injury, and ended up with an unsightly 1.20 WHIP. Sure, a little bit of that was a .312 BABIP, but he had an 80% LOB and just didn’t look nearly as good as he did in 2015. Playoffs ruined all of these guys! |
| 16 | Kenta Maeda, LAD | Aight, time to start throwing a wrench into EVERYTHING! Although Grey has him 19, which makes me a sad panda… I thought I would be way ahead on this one! In his 2016 debut season, 9.17 K:2.56 BB, and really none of the peripherals look off at all. Only thing holding him back was 172.2 IP. If they take the kid’s gloves off and let him go 7 innings most of the time, he’s a 210-220 inning pitcher, with a 9+ K-rate and probably 20 wins. It’s just that “if”… And well, if the league doesn’t figure him out a little too… That’s another “if”… Pitcher Profile – May 23, 2016 |
| 17 | Gerrit Cole, PIT | Let me make one thing clear – I hate Gerrit Cole. I’m still mad about this. You tell em, Gregg Doyel! We can be best friends if you want, Gregg! And Cole got some comeuppance last year with middling results and injury issues (although so did Gomez in the years after haha). Anyway, it’s a little bit of a flier, but he still threw hard through elbow inflammation cropping up last year, and expects to be fully healthy. Upside for 8+ K rate to return and a good ERA/WHIP in that park has me thinking a top-20 finish is well within reason. |
| 18 | Masahiro Tanaka, NYY | Are people still unjustly worried about his partially torn elbow? Well, they might be, I still am a little bit! He pitched great last year, but the Ks were still kinda blah. Plus the rebuilding Yankees might not be the best team – 14 wins in 200 good innings last year, and I dunno if we can expect any more in 2017. But as we all know, wins are finicky. |
| 19 | Kyle Hendricks, CHC | I came into the ranks thinking I was for sure going to be pretty blah on Hendricks. But damn if there’s not 20 other pitchers I like more… Sure, K-rate is only at 8 and his BABIP and LOB% were a little lucky, but remember all the games where Maddon pulled him early?! What if he gets 210-215 innings, which is well within reason?! Could have a 20 win season, 8 K rate, 3.20 ERA… That would still likely be top-20 and that’s building in regression to the ratios. |
| 20 | Danny Duffy, KC | Who thinks 2016 was legit?! Pick me! Pick me! I’d be all about Duffy flirting with top-15, but I’m still pretty worried about how he handles the workload as a starter all year. The Royals seemed to always be concerned with his innings, and over his last 7 starts in 2016: 6.37 ERA 1.59 WHIP… Plus his final 3 starts had his fastball at 93.7 MPH or slower, as he was almost always in the 94-95 range as a starter (with some blips here and there, but it was a trend). I’ll like him, but not fully reaching. Pitcher Profile – August 22, 2016 |
| 21 | Cole Hamels, TEX | As safe as it comes for a top-25 pitcher. Although I did see some warning signs last year with the BB rate, but he was able to adapt around a slight loss of control and still be solid. K rate was still there, threw a lot of innings, just a poopoo 1.31 WHIP. But he should be OK for another 200ish Ks, 15-17 wins, and good ERA… Pitcher Profile – August 18, 2014 |
| 22 | Danny Salazar, CLE | Man, don’t feel too confident with Salazar at all, but his allure of a 10+ K rate still has me intrigued. I just got the heebie jeebies after there was some quote or something where he said he had no confidence in his elbow last year, but the doctors said he was healthy. Then he got a flexor strain… After two straight years keeping the BB-rate under 3, it was 4.13 in 2016. Maybe he was just pitching through an undiagnosed injury – velos and peripherals all look OK – but I have that same waning confidence he had in his elbow last year… |
| 23 | Carlos Martinez, STL | We all know he throws hard and has nasty stuff, but duuuuuuuuuude, only 8.02 K rate?! 3.23 BB/9?! His stuff is just so electric sometimes, that I don’t know why he hasn’t found a little more consistency. Maybe this can be a breakout year, but if you take out my horrible Brewers accounting for 24 Ks in two of his starts, his K rate really looks pedestrian… Pitcher Profile – April 13, 2015 |
| 24 | Chris Archer, TB | I wanted to put Archer higher. I really, really did. But I think the league is starting to adjust to him, more than any change of effectiveness on his end. That slider – one of the best pitches in baseball – was only a smidge less effective in 2016 compared to 2015, but his fastball absolutely got murdered. 0.5 value on Fangraphs in 2015 to -15.1 last year, opponents hit .256 in 2015 off it with 9 homers, up to .280 last year with 17 homers. I just get the suspicion that if hitters read fastball, they’re swinging every time. Plus it lost 1 MPH from 2015 to 16. K rate should still have him valuable, but it’s going the wrong way. Pitcher Profile – April 27, 2015 |
| 25 | Aaron Sanchez, TOR | Awesome breakout from A-A-Ron, finishing 21st on the Razzball Player Rater, and easily could duplicate that effort. Only thing that keeps him a little lower is that 7.55 K-rate, which is weird because his stuff is awesome! Just check out his Profile! But he’s still young, Ks could improve… We just better not see too much regression in the .267 BABIP or 10.7% HR/FB while in the tough-to-pitch AL. Pitcher Profile – April 18, 2016 |
| 26 | Zack Greinke, ARI | Buzz’s girlfriend, woof! Yeah, absolute disaster for sure… We all know he’d regress, but Ks down, BB rate up, HR rate was terrible, his velo dropped again… His pitch values across the board went down, but I dunno, I just feel like he hasn’t completely forgotten how to pitch… Not like he went from throwing mid-90s to 91-92 – he’s been lower velo for a little now, and I think could bounce back as a slow-n-steady top-20 finisher. Obviously the risk is he keeps regressing and the Diamondbacks loathe their lives for this albatross contract. |
| 27 | Lance McCullers, HOU | From blah old people to sexy young arms! Everyone’s favorite 2017 breakout comes in the season after an obscene 11.78 K rate in 81 innings last year, shortened by shoulder issues. Everyone points to 49.5% usage rate of the curveball, but I actually am OK with it as long as he can get a smidge more control. Just to underscore the upside, he somehow managed a 3.22 ERA with 5.00 BB/9 AND a .383 BABIP! I do worry about the shoulder stuff and if he can hold up a whole season, but upside is there for a clear top-30 gamble. |
| 28 | Matt Harvey, NYM | These last two is a great debate for me. All sorts of risk on the injury front, but Harvey had the more major surgery, and just wasn’t effective at all despite having high velocity again. Sure, you can attribute it to the thorasic dinosaur stuff, but we’ll see how he looks through Spring. Certainly worth a flier in the top 30. |
| 29 | Rich Hill, LAD | 3 for the last 3 – huge upside/huge injury risk guys! Hill is just the grandpa of the bunch. I think at this point we can expect pretty good results while he’s out there, plus a good park, good team… Should be good for however many innings you get him. |
| 30 | James Paxton, SEA | My Canadian lover! After blowing me away when he debuted in 2014 (his 5th career start), he’s been pretty middling, mostly due to injuries. Some control stuff too, overall repeatability of his pitches… But after getting demoted to AAA to start last year, he completely changed his arm slot, and starting slingin’ lefty 100! Nothing is sexier than lefty 100! He utilized his cutter a little more, then after shying away from his curveball, brought it back in a big way his last 5 starts (20% of the time or more), and he ended his last 3 with a 24:2 K:BB. Overall he flashed an 8.7 K rate to a 1.8 BB rate, and even though the ERA and WHIP were kinda blah, he had a .347 BABIP and 66.3% LOB! He had a 2.80 FIP!!! While I know a perception is kinda a “been there, done that” with Paxton, dude has still only thrown 286 Major League innings! He got through 171.2 in AAA/MLB last year so I think he can be durable now, changed his arm slot, and I think the pastiche of his velocity will get overlooked because the results still don’t really look like they were there last year. They were just hiding… Draft my big Canadian with confidence this year! Pitcher Profile – September 14, 2015 |
| 31 | John Lackey, CHC | John Lackey?! Really JB?! No, that’s not me emulating your groans, it’s me groaning at myself! He’s 38, but off of two straight great seasons and showing no signs of velo loss. While I don’t know if I quite buy the 8.6 K rate he had outta nowhere, he did use his fastball a bit less vs. 2014 and 15, and threw a tad more off-speed (usually strikeout pitches). The intrigue for me is he somehow only had 11 wins on that Cubs team in 188.1 innings. Shave off some Ks and add a few wins and I think he easily can be right at the 30 range at the end of the season. |
| 32 | Sean Manaea, OAK | Looking at some other ranks/sources, looks like Manaea might be my 2017 guy. For some reason he easily ended up on a lot of my teams during the stretch run last year, when he had a 2.44 ERA his last 14 outings, with a 75:14 K:BB in 84.2 innings. Over his final 6 starts of his rookie season, 1.05 ERA with a 32:9 K:BB in 34.1 innings. And it’s not like we’re talking about some outta nowhere guy, this was a major prospect! It’s just that he struggled out of the gate, then everyone forgot about him. Classic prospect syndrome… He always profiled as a control guy, just had some jitters out of the gate, then had a really under the radar finish. Sure, he’s probably an 8 K rate guy at best, and he might have an innings cap around 180-190 and only get 11-12 wins, but I think there’s solid breakout potential here. Pitcher Profile – May 2, 2016 |
| 33 | Blake Snell, TB | Going on my run of sexy southpaw sleepers I love! I know I kinda linkbait the shit outta these, but def look at his pitcher profile. Dear lord, that STUFF! 9.91 K rate last year, but unfortunately with the unsightly 5.16 BB rate. That said, had an unreal .356 BABIP and still survived with a 3.54 ERA. All he needs is the BB rate to be like, 4.0, and the BABIP to normalize around .300, and suddenly he’s one of 2017’s big breakouts. Ya know, his numbers last year eerily mimic McCullers, and everyone is gaga for Lance. Not sure why the buzz isn’t there for Blake either. The two should definitely start a boy band with those names… Pitcher Profile – August 1, 2016 |
| 34 | Ivan Nova, PIT | Why is no one talking about Nova?!??! Maybe people need a refresher on just how much magic pixy dust Searage dumped on him. 64.2 innings in PIT, 52 Ks, 3 BB (!!!!!!!!!!!!), 5 wins, 3.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. And get this, he was actually UNLUCKY too! Had a .318 BABIP and unreal 68.7 LOB%. Enough pixie dust to just dunk him in it, like an ice bucket challenge! So a guy who never walks anyone, somehow is unlucky with a strand rate?! Yeah, it could’ve been even better… While he did have a low HR rate, he pitches in a great park, in the NL, plus he’s a groundball pitcher. With the latter said, it does cap his upside since he won’t be a huge K guy, but it’s not like this is some softball pitcher up there. Threw 92.8 with the fastball on PIT, which is nothing to sneeze at. I honestly debated Nova vs. Porcello a ton, I think they could have identical seasons, but decided to make a little noise with the rank :) Pitcher Profile – September 19, 2016 |
| 35 | Rick Porcello, BOS | Ahhhhh, the blunder from down under. Well, if “down under” meant 2016… I wonder if his odds to win Cy Young in 2016 were worse than Leicester City! And, well, see what’s happening to Leicester City now! Dude pitched 223 innings and got 22 wins. Both seem mad high, and his BB rate was an obscene 1.29/9! With a HR rate that was uncharacteristically below 10% in Fenway, his xFIP was actually HIGHER than 2015, when he was a flaming turd! One might argue, “oh, his sinking fastball gets groundballs though!”, but I would then slap that person across the face and say “LOOK IT UP!” Career-low 43.1% GB rate, after always being a 50%+ guy in Detroit. 2016 for Slicky Ricky feels like the Greinke 2015 season in LAD, then he moved to ARI. Except Porcello isn’t moving! So let’s do this, let’s split the middle of his high-BABIP unlucky 2015, and mad lucky 2016, straight combining everything (which will slant towards 2016 since he pitched more innings) and divide by 2: 197.5 IP, 15.5 W, 3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 169 Ks. It’s OK! Just not great. And that would straight be my prediction. |
| 36 | Jose Quintana, CHW | People fawn over Quintana, and I just don’t get it. Safety in a deep mixed or AL-only?! Sure, I would be all about it. But for 12ers, what’s the appeal? Always a sub-8 K-rate, not great wins and CHW should be atrocious still. Even though he had a career year, he actually had a lot of things go his way. His 4.03 xFIP was actually highest since 2012. If he finishes higher than 36, what’s the upside, top-30?! Meh. |
| 37 | Michael Fulmer, DET | Certainly struggled with Fulmer. The BABIP was lucky (.268), but the rest of the peripherals say he was good, but I can’t get over that lowly 7.47 K rate, Well, I should say “middling” K rate. Wait, what, Kate Middleton?! He throws hard, and the change-up was still a newly minted pitch for him, so maybe there’s still upside here. It’s a good park… I dunno, I think Fulmer has one of the wider ranges of outcomes of anyone in my top-40. He could improve and flirt with top-20, or absolutely implode. Pitcher Profile – June 13, 2016 |
| 38 | Joe Ross, WAS | Where are you now?!?!?! Ohohoho!!! Well, Ross wasn’t really a “bust” with my high ranking last year, because he wasn’t really bad. He just wasn’t great either, then got hurt. Actually he was even better than I remember! Frist 10 starts – 2.37 ERA! But only 46:18 K:BB in 60.2 IP… Then his shoulder started blowing up, which is a mad concern given how much he throws that dominant slider. He’s trying to perfect his change-up to have a complete 3-pitch arsenal, so he’s someone I’m going to try and watch a few starts of in Spring, to see how it comes along. Pitcher Profile – July 27, 2015 |
| 39 | J.A. Happ, TOR | Another high finisher last year – one who also seems unsexy and unappealing – I actually think might come at a smidge of a discount. He’s actually been doing this for a about a year-and-a-half now if you count the PIT stint, but he had a low BABIP in 2016, almost 80% LOB and value boosted by 20 wins. Even with all that, I think he’ll be decent, just not expecting 2016. |
| 40 | Kevin Gausman, BAL | I don’t know what it is… I know I “should” like Gausman more – he throws hard, was pretty consistent all year, 8.72:2.35 K:BB… I just feel like he’s too reliant on fastball/split (ironic when you see who is ranked next) and he’s going to give up too many homers and line drives for that park. I don’t think I’m egregiously low on him, but likely passing based on some other ranks I’ve seen. |
| 41 | Matt Shoemaker, LAA | Wild, wild ride for Shoemaker last year, who blew, then was amazing, then kinda settled in, then unfortunately took a comebacker to the head which ended his season. He’s already facing live batters and it’s just good to see him pitching. And 8.04:1.69 K:BB always gets me excited (like he did last year), but I worry about how much the league is adjusting to him. He started throwing that split finger like 40-50% of the time from May 16 on, was dynamite from then through June, then was kinda middle-of-the-road July and August. |
| 42 | Taijuan Walker, ARI | I had to fight off the Walker-detractors a lot last year, and I think he was so mediocre that no one was right… Decent Ks, decent WHIP, lucky BABIP but unlucky HR/FB. His fastball at 93.9 with the change at 88.3 MPH just doesn’t work though… Maybe the change of scenery will help – as will the change to the NL – but for a guy with homer problems going to the desert is a little scary. Fear and Loathing of the Homers! |
| 43 | Jameson Taillon, PIT | We all know I love my K:BB, it’s like pure, uncut Joe Ross love! 7.36:1.47 for the Taillon Stallion, who surprised everyone with just how good he looked after 2 years off due to injuries, throwing 94.3 MPH on the fastball in the Majors. He’s got a good park and the best pitching coach in the game, but I think he’ll be more of 4th SP (on your fantasy team) “solid” guy than have this huge breakout. |
| 44 | Dylan Bundy, BAL | So apparently Bundy was ridiculously dominant turning pro with a cutter, then scrapped the pitch because he thought it added to some of the several arm problems he had. He didn’t even use the pitch last year, but after making it through a healthy season, he might bring it back. Instead it was more curveballs and changes, and you can see in the Pitcher Profile link how good his stuff looks. He’s reportedly not on an innings limit, and is a later-round sleeper I hope to get in most leagues. He had some trouble the third time through the order last year, but I’m treating 2016 as a long-term rehab assignment. Gonna beast in 2017. Pitcher Profile – July 18, 2016 |
| 45 | Carlos Rodon, CHW | Forever spurned! Which is kinda weird, you’d think Ross woulda hurt me worse, but I dunno… If I hadn’t whiffed on Rodon so bad last year, I think I might have him in my top-40… His K:BB – the issue with him has always been the free passes – was 9.16:2.95 last year! That’s pretty phenomenal! Trouble is he had a .330 BABIP with another 20%+ line drive rate (it wasn’t awful though…), and after watching him pitch so much, he just couldn’t get consistent outs with two strikes. And since he didn’t wanna walk anyone, he would pound the zone with fastballs and cross his fingers. Maybe he can take another step forward, but CHW are going to be terrible and not have him pitch 120 pitches any game or anything like that. Yeah, he finished mad strong (14 innings last 2 starts, 2 ER, 21:6 K:BB), but we went through the whole “finished strong” song and dance last year too… I guess you draft Hammel, then trade for Rodon at the deadline haha. Pitcher Profile – May 11, 2015 |
| 46 | Vincent Velasquez, PHI | Whoa, I know he had great Ks, but not quite a 10.44:3.09 K:BB last year! That said, a huge portion of that was that Padres game where he exploded onto the scene with that 16 K game. You could get some great Ks, but all the projections systems have him sub-160 innings, so it’s not like we’re going to get a full helping… Pitcher Profile – June 22, 2015 |
| 47 | Jerad Eickhoff, PHI | Why does no one like Eickhoff?! I know I was semi-guilty of this last year, but it’s a new season! Gorgeous 7.62:1.92 K:BB, meh BABIP was maybe the eensiest of a dash low, but everything looks legit to me. Good fastball, good slider, GREAT curveball, able to control both breaking pitches… Sure his cap might be like 13 wins and he might not have the upside as some I rank below, but he should be really solid. Underratingly (is that a word?) solid. |
| 48 | Tyler Skaggs, LAA | I almost forgot all about it, but remember Skaggs’ AAA run rehabbing from TJ?! He was absolutely absurd! 32.1 innings, 1.67 ERA 0.84 WHIP, 45:8 K:BB. For a pitching talent-strapped team, yeah, he couldn’t toil any longer in the Minors. Hit the Majors, and ummmm, it didn’t quite carry over. 50:23 K:BB in 49.2 innings, but he did have a rough .331 BABIP and his velocity is at a career best. Damn, so he had a faster heater, yet the BABIP off it (small sample of course) was .342, while his curveball remained as dominant as ever, with opponents hitting .170 off it and 23 Ks to 2 BBs. Just 18 walks with the fastball, and it was hit hard in the zone. So all he needs is a smidge more command on the heater, and since he’s off TJ, that’s not too surprising. But with the curveball there, great velo, and the results happening in the Minors, I think we could be sitting on a big breakout here. |
| 49 | Marcus Stroman, TOR | Even though he has electric stuff, I think we have to sorta assume he’s not going to be this monstrous K/9 guy… That said, made it through 204 innings last year, had a good K:BB (7.32:2.38) and just got a little unlucky with his strand rate. I think he can be OK with some upside given his youth, but not high on my excitement meter. |
| 50 | Dallas Keuchel, HOU | I mean, it’s definitely pure flier here. All his lucky peripherals flipped completely to unlucky, as Rick Porcello (I’m guessing) sucked all his luckiness… Horrific HR rate, Ks went way down… Bad year. Apparently he pitched through “major rotator cuff inflammation” last season, which isn’t exactly inspiring confidence… He won’t pitch until the latter part of Spring, but if the shoulder holds up, he could be a usable innings eater like he was in 2015. Pitcher Profile – May 29, 2014 |
| 51 | Junior Guerra, MIL | Wow, why does everyone hate Junior?! We all know why I like him, homer bias, but cmon! 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a 7.4 K rate is pretty good! Sure his peripherals say he wasn’t quite that good, and I know I know, everyone is like “whaaaa he’s a 31-yr-old rookie last year!”, but he converted to a pitcher in his 20s and it’s not like he’s been toiling in the Minors as a pitcher his whole life. That split-finger is a wonder to watch – it’s like a sharp-dipping change-up – and it’s not like he’s a soft tosser – 93.1 MPH on the fastball. The Crew shut him down to limit his innings, but I think he’ll be given the main load this year. Pitcher Profile – July 25, 2016 |
| 52 | Steven Matz, NYM | He was fine last year, I could rattle off numbers, but I’ve done enough of that at this point 52 deep. Just don’t have faith in his arm holding up for even 150 innings. Pitcher Profile – June 29, 2015 |
| 53 | Felix Hernandez, SEA | Follow along with me on the K:BB regression! Unreal 9.46:1.75 in 2014, pretty good 8.52:2.59 in 2015, horrible 7.16:3.82 in 2016. Not surprisingly, velo fell these past 3 years as well! I’m not going near The King. |
| 54 | Aaron Nola, PHI | All about how much you believe… Was his awesome start luck/a hot streak, then his collapse due to the elbow issue that cost the end of his season? I definitely don’t buy the 9.81 K rate that came outta nowhere, and while he claims to be 100% healthy, I just have a weird feeling about that elbow. Pitcher Profile – May 9, 2016 |
| 55 | Jeff Samardzija, SF | The Shark! Why can’t he get Ks anymore! If only Sharks could answer… Oh I know why! It’s because he’s abandoned his split-finger. Wait, Sharks don’t have fingers! Well he had a 3.81 ERA in another 200+ IP campaign, and while I’m not banking on any real improvements on 2016’s line – everything looks about in place – I think wins could hop to like 16, which would make him a value. A boring value, but a value. |
| 56 | Julio Teheran, ATL | Very meh. I mean, I hope I’m kinda wrong since I own him in one of my keepers, but even with the out-of-nowhere 7.99:1.96 K:BB, peripherals say he was pretty lucky. A lot of my hate here was watching him pitch last year – doesn’t throw hard, relies on a good slider but is more of a slurve, and doesn’t have additional great stuff. I could see this souring way before it sweets. |
| 57 | Jason Hammel, KC | A Tale of Two Halves! Hammel always starts gangbusters, then ends like the remake of Ghostbusters. That said, he still finished really well last year, and gets to stay in a nice park there in KC. |
| 58 | Tanner Roark, WAS | Whew, I was wayyyyyy wrong on Roark last year, but it’s not going to disuade me from a lower rank again in 2017. Interestingly, he had the same exact xFIP last year as in 2015 (4.17), when he was more of a ho-hum starter/long-relief guy. Last year he had a high strand rate, low BABIP, and didn’t give up homers. Sure his Ks were at a career-high rate, but the walks were too. I think he can be a good innings-eater, but pretty yawnstipating in 12ers. |
| 59 | Anthony DeSclafani, CIN | Italian stallion! Why am I calling everyone stallions?! 7.66:2.19 K:BB had his 2016 “breakout” look legit, plus even after an injury in Spring that cost him the beginning of the season, threw the hardest in his career at 92.9 MPH on the fastball. Plus he has a fantastic slider. I’m not expecting monstrous upside, but do see decent Ks and a guy who won’t kill ya. (Update – of course right when I got this edited and put together, news came out he got scratched from a Spring start due to elbow tenderness, so drop him a good bit with what we know now. Hopefully it’s nothing.) Pitcher Profile – June 27, 2016 |
| 60 | Drew Pomeranz, BOS | It’s weird, I don’t even dislike Pomeranz that much! Even into the mid-60s are pitchers I like, but it seems so weird to have Drew P this low. Everyone seems to agree though, that he was a smidge over his head in SD, and the change of parks to Fenway is a dealbreaker. 2.47/1.06 ERA WHIP with the Padres, 4.59/1.37 with the BoSox, but his xFIP didn’t change that much. He had some lucky BABIP in SD, but then got murdered with a 19.7% HR/FB in the AL. He had such a spike in workload that lead to elbow problems that is keeping me from ranking him any higher, even though he continued to have a 9+ K-rate in the divisional move. |
| 61 | Julio Urias, LAD | The Dodgers are unfair! They have more money to spend than god, yet hit on prospects like Urias. Wait, they’re exactly like the Cubs! So both are unfair… Anyway, awesome debut for Urias, who had a 9.82 K rate and a 3.39 ERA in his first 77 MLB innings last year. His WHIP was unsightly, but he gave up a crazy .358 BABIP. He pitched 122 innings in Minors/Majors last year, so is there a chance they let him get to like 150-160 and he has a good K rate? Since he doesn’t really have the upside for a full season, it knocks him down a bit, but I might still draft him a few picks higher with the knowledge I’ll have to trade him after a few months or drop him towards the stretch run. Pitcher Profile – June 6, 2016 |
| 62 | Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS | As I put in my 2016 recap, “After a rough start and terrible June, actually ended really damn strong: 14 starts, 3.24 ERA, 79 K in 77.2 IP. ” That’s me quoting me! Ditched a cutter he was trying to incorporate, then things went smoother. It’s still not 100% he makes the rotation though, although it would seem most likely they put Steven Wright in long relief. E Rod has that lefty velo (93.5 MPH fastball in 2016) that keeps him really appealing. Someone I’ll be watching intently in Spring, and who could get a big jump in my first update. |
| 63 | Zach Davies, MIL | Brewers need better pitchers! I feel like I have Junior and Davies ahead of most too, smh… Decent Ks, low walks, and all the peripherals say he should hang out in the high-3s ERA. Plus he kinda had a rocky start – if you take out his first 5 starts, he had a 3.56 ERA with 121:25 K:BB over 139 innings. |
| 64 | Daniel Norris, DET | Interesting deeper sleeper (rhyme time!) from our favorite van man! Thanks to Swfcdan for the thought here! In 155.1 IP across the Majors/Minors, had 162 Ks, and the numbers in the Majors get obfuscated a little by a high BABIP. I remember when he debuted for the Blue Jays I was a little disappointed by the velo, but it was a career-high by far 93.1 MPH on the fastball last year, and he’s completely changed his slider to be a cutter (or changed to a cutter – Fangraphs list them all as sliders, but velo went from 80.8 with it in 2014 up to 87.5 last year). Pretty excited for the upside. Pitcher Profile – August 3, 2015 |
| 65 | Robbie Ray, ARI | Ray is gonna be on a lot of people’s sleeper lists. But as someone who drafted him in the REL, I watched a lot of his starts, and I think he still needs a lot of things to work to take the next step. First, just his plain ol’ mechanics. When I ranked him as a sleeper last year, he was more in the 3/4 arm slot from what I had seen, but threw more over-the-top last year. Almost seemed like he was guiding the ball to try and help control issues. In the end it actually HURT his walk rate to 3.67. Second, everyone will point to the unlucky BABIP and HR rate. Sure, I know I cite these for other guys in my ranks as well, but for Ray, he’s so inconsistent that he’s either dominant, or guiding the ball into the zone and it gets rocked. That’s why his line drive rate is always high – 21.7% last year. It was good to see his GB rate climb, but meh. And his BABIP/hits against could’ve been even worse, as he had oddly high infield fly balls (10.3%) and a low infield hit rate (4.6%). They kinda go hand-in-hand, but if he gets fewer infield flies/outs, the BABIP could’ve been like .380! Third, there is no third! Fourth, he’s just not good from the stretch at all. He’s horrific. Last year, .243 average against with bases empty, with 135 Ks and 30 BBs in 104 innings. Men on? 70.1 innings, 83 Ks, 41 BBs (!!!!), .298 average against!!!! Yikes. If there were never men on base, he’s Randy Johnson! Now, he could fix a lot of this with more experience, but it’s a lot to ask. I think just looking at BABIP is lazy (again, I do it myself in some of these ranks though! I don’t watch most pitchers as much as I watched Ray!), and there’s enough underlying here for me to pass on his asking price. You’ll get Ks! But they’ll be way too frustrating. Oh, and I traded Ray away in the REL around midseason… Pitcher Profile – April 25, 2016 |
| 66 | Jonathan Gray, COL | I’ve got a feeling I’m going to be the lowest on Gray. My shade will be the darkest of the 50. K rate was obviously phenomenal, and his WHIP was OK, but the ERA was bad, and it’s just friggin’ Coors man, I don’t know why people are buying. Put him on the Pads and he might flirt with my top-20! But as it stands, he’s stuck in a shituation I just can’t buy in, even though he’ll get another good helping of those Pads again in the NL West, who he torched for a 49:5 K:BB and 2.73 ERA 0.91 WHIP in 5 starts. |
| 67 | Jeremy Hellickson, PHI | All about that change, that change, that change! One of the best pitches in baseball last year, oppos hit .168 against it, with 78 Ks in 191 ABs, good for a strikeout 38% of the time when it was the resulting pitch. That’s absurd! Overall a 7.33:2.14 K:BB which is fine, and nothing else was too lucky/unlucky for him vs. his 2016 numbers. |
| 68 | Adam Conley, MIA | After seemingly fixing some control issues coming out of the Minors in 2015, struggled with a 4.19 BB rate last year. His Ks were awesome (8.37), but he’ll have to refine his control. That said, the stuff is good, he’s pretty young, and in a good park. |
| 69 | Mike Foltynewicz, ATL | Verdict is still out on how the new Braves stadium is going to play out, but Folty showed a few signs of breaking out last year, and he’s certainly worth a last-round flier in 12ers, or an upside gamble in NL-only. Control has always been a bugaboo, but drastically improved it the past few seasons, having a shocking 8.10:2.55 K:BB in 2016. All other indicators look about even, so if he goes 180ish innings and just marginally improves, he could be a 4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks. We all know he throws hard enough to where it could start coming together, and he took another big step forward in throwing his secondary stuff vs. leaning so heavy on the heater in 2016. |
| 70 | Brandon Finnegan, CIN | Eww, Finnegan’s season long numbers! They’re rough! But his last 11 starts were saucy, posting a 2.23 ERA with a 64:28 K:BB in 60.2 innings. Sure, too many walks, but there’s a direct thing you can point to for that final run. As written about in a few places, his change-up vastly improved. He began 2016 throwing it a ton, but in the 85+ MPH range while his fastball hovered at 92ish MPH. Always want to see those closer to 10 MPH apart. So he virtually scrapped it for a while, until bringing it back with a force at the end, and the MPH started dropping from 83ish MPH to sub 82 the final two starts. When it was all said and done, the change-up was thrown 333 times and opps hit only .092 off it! All this said, I don’t think there’s massive upside, but a good backend fantasy pitcher here. Pitcher Profile – September 12, 2016 |
| 71 | Garrett Richards, LAA | This one is a total dart throw, and we’ll know more when I do my round of updates right when the season starts. He’s throwing now, everything seems good… And while he should have pitch counts, if he can be even close to some of his better stretches, this would be immense value. Maybe worth your last pick in 12ers as a flier that you just drop right away if he doesn’t seem right off the elbow injury. |
| 72 | Jordan Zimmermann, DET | Like Aaron Nola, just older and way worse. After a complete mirage of a start – one that I had to fight commenters off of from raising him in my ranks – JZ collapsed, which he blamed on his neck and lat injuries. He’s healthy now, and if his velo looks like it’ll get back to at least 92+ on the fastball, I think there’s some bounceback potential here. |
| 73 | Reynaldo Lopez, CHW | Yeah I know, this one is a wild card. But I dunno, I just have a weird feeling here. All the ingredients are there, so I’m a little surprised he was such a glossed-over part of that Eaton deal. While in 44 innings in the Majors he had a 4.91 ERA, in 109.1 innings in AA+AAA, 126 K:35 BB, and he has one of the best fastballs of any starter/SP prospect. He’s got a solid curve and a usable change too, just got a little unlucky in his first MLB stint with BABIP and strand rate, and probably a little nervous with an uncharacteristically bad walk rate. Now, he might start in AAA again, but I think he’ll be up before Giolito and be up soon. I’d be all over this in AL-only. |
| 74 | Jake Odorizzi, TB | Eggs over easy had a good season – near 8 K rate, good ERA and WHIP – but he is just yawnstipating to me, plus has had two straight years of fortunate BABIP. That said, he’s a flyball pitcher, and they tend to have low BABIPs… But his xFIP has gone up 3 straight seasons, and I don’t really see upside. |
| 75 | Michael Pineda, NYY | Nope. Nope, nope, nope. He’s like Robbie Ray, unreal metrics, great Ks, and he doesn’t even walk anyone! Although the BB rate did go up last year… He just has no command, and doesn’t have any sort of off-speed stuff. It’s fastball, change, cutter, all within about 8 MPH of each other. I know velo on the fastball went up, and you’ll probably get Ks, but it’s like Nolasco back in the day, I just don’t see the positive of Ks outweighing the ERA & WHIP drains. Pitcher Profile – September 1, 2014 |
| 76 | Bartolo Colon, ATL | This is what’s gonna happen – I’m going to finally rank Colon decent-ish, and this will be the year he collapses… |
| 77 | Drew Smyly, SEA | Smyly make JB frowny… I liked him a ton last year, and he kept showing flashes, but just couldn’t put together a strong season. Even though he had a great K:BB (can you tell that’s one of my fav go-to stats?) none of the peripherals say his 4.88 ERA and 1.27 WHIP were unlucky. And that was in the Trop! Remains in a good park in SEA, and like Pineda and Ray should get Ks, but I don’t see a big reason to think the ERA and WHIP improve to make him a value. |
| 78 | Matt Moore, SF | The Rays had some funky ish going on with their pitchers last year, that’s for sure! All of em didn’t pitch well at home, gave up homers… Was weird. Then Moore got to SF and the homer rate dropped, but even with facing pitchers, his BB rate went wayyyy up to 4.21. It was a small sample, but I’ve never been a Moore guy due to his inconsistencies. Pitcher Profile – July 13, 2015 |
| 79 | Marco Estrada, TOR | The metrics finally all caught up! After a good start, was a 4.12 ERA pitcher from June on, with a good K rate but 39 walks in 109.1 innings. His velo dropped at least 1 MPH across the board, and he had a herniated disc in his back. Eesh, yeah it’s not a good combination to where I think his anti-metrics success will come back. |
| 80 | Adam Wainwright, STL | He’s 35, off a bad season, and I’m not expecting a ton. That said, velo actually went back up last year, and he had an unlucky BABIP and HR rate. Walk rate was worst in his career though, as it looks like he may be in the twilight, but there’s enough here for a flier. I wouldn’t be surprised if name value has him drafted higher though. |
| 81 | Gio Gonzalez, WAS | We pretty much know what Gio is at this point – near 9 K-rate, but a bad WHIP and too hittable in stretches. Now, he did get his BB rate below 3 for the first time in his career which is somewhat interesting, but it was at the cost of 1.2 MPH on his fastball yet very little drop on the change. You know me and speed differences on those pitches! Hah. |
| 82 | Jharel Cotton, OAK | Everything screams “sleeper!” to me, so I’ll bet he’s ranked a lot of places a little higher. Hit the ground running in his first 5 starts last year, maintained great K:BBs in the Minors, but I don’t recall his stuff being “that” electric and I think he’s the kind of guy that will start strong, but struggle through the adjustment the league makes. Kinda a gut call, or you could say I’m going a little bit on feel with Cotton. |
| 83 | Sonny Gray, OAK | Yeah, he had a lot of unlucky things go against him – horrible HR rate, bad BABIP, etc., but at the same time, he’s dropped his K rate for 3 straight season and had a career-worst BB rate. Not exactly the trend you want! The A’s are probably going to be pretty bad again, and Gray dealt with a forearm issue to end 2016. I’m likely passing, but would be worth a deeper-league flier if everyone else is passing too. |
| 84 | Josh Hader, MIL | I felt like I had to get one true prospect who hasn’t pitched in the Majors yet in here, so why not from my own team?! The Brewers really don’t have much more to do with him in the Minors – he owned AA, and struggled at first in AAA ( almost entirely due to our horrid AAA affiliate being in Col. Springs) but then got through it. So it doesn’t make sense to me to have us keep him in high altitude and mess with his confidence, or send him to AA where he’s proven he’s beyond that level. I could see him cracking the rotation sooner than later, and he’s gonna be an awesome Ks source. |
| 85 | Lance Lynn, STL | Lynn got a couple starts in the Minors last year, and all signs point to him being healthy. He’s been a decent K guy with good ERAs, only thing is he’s a WHIP killer with 3+ BB rates almost every season in his career, and I worry how his command will translate. NL-only should play close attention to Spring though – he could be a steal in deeper formats. |
| 86 | Jaime Garcia, ATL | Meh, just never been a Jaime guy. We all know getting even close to 200 innings ain’t happening, and while he had an obscene HR/FB (20.2% in 171.2 innings, wowzer!), walks went way up and I just don’t see a big enough reason to keep him in the standard league discussion. Pitcher Profile – June 9, 2014 |
| 87 | Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA | Yeesh, running through the favorite pitchers of 2014 these last few! Hah! K rate dwindling, BB rate over 2 for the first time in his career, velo down, always too homer prone, and going to be 36 most of this year. Pass on the dashi! |
| 88 | Collin McHugh, HOU | I struggled with this one, since McHugh – while losing a lot of that luster from the 2014 breakout – still has a lot of the right ingredients. 8.63:2.63 K:BB last year, no big velo changes, just another high BABIP like 2015. But the line drive rate remains over 20% every season, and he just seems too streaky and hittable when I watch him pitch, that I don’t feel like he suddenly breaks back out again. Pitcher Profile – April 28, 2014 |
| 89 | Ian Kennedy, KC | McHugh and Kennedy are mad similar… They might be twins! Good Ks, too many hits, although Kennedy is more extreme with the flyballs. While Ks are still good, BB remain high, and a lot of factors said Kennedy should’ve posted a career-worst season (per FIP and xFIP). Velo spike was nice, but he’s 32, on a fading team, meh I don’t see upside. |
| 90 | Ervin Santana, MIN | An opening day starter this late, draft him immediately! Well, if that were the case, there’s some great values for the Pad’s SP too! I mean, Santana is mad lame, but had a good K:BB, nothing was too lucky in his peripherals as he posted a 3.38 ERA last year, and might’ve been a surprise on the player rater if he didn’t get bogged down by only 7 wins. While the Twins are probably still gonna be fairly bad, that’s a pretty low tally for the kind of 2016 he had. |
| 91 | Joe Musgrove, HOU | He might not be in the rotation out of Spring, but despite a huge high then massive low in his 2016 debut, he still carried over a great K:BB that he showed in the Minors, and overall did pretty well. I think the K upside is what’s lacking to make him a great post-hype sleeper (yeah, you can use post-hype even when he’s barely played, because everyone freaks out if a prospect isn’t good right away), but you might land a #3 or #4 for your rotation for most of the year if he’s in the rotation pretty quick. Pitcher Profile – August 8, 2016 |
| 92 | Dan Straily, MIA | One of 2016’s more improbable performances, Straily got boosted up by an insane .239 BABIP to post a 7.56 K rate and 3.76 ERA in 191.1 innings and 14 wins. 14 wins on the Reds! His xFIP ended up being 5.02 too! That said, he gets to move to Crayola Canyon, and might be semi-usable. |
| 93 | Luke Weaver, STL | Exploding onto the scene with a fantastic AA campaign last year, Weaver was decent in his first 36.1 innings, but it looks worse thanks to a .386 BABIP and 21.2% HR rate. Yikes, two Cards starters had HR rates over 20%! Hah! Now with Reyes out for the year, it’s between he and Wacha for a starting spot, and with Wacha having that shoulder issue where it keeps breaking – literally – I think Weaver could be the 5th guy sooner than later. |
| 94 | Robert Gsellman, NYM | I’m just not a Gbuyman. Had never been a K guy while coming up through the Minors, and while some pitchers can surprise with adding more strikeouts late as they develop, I just don’t think he’s a mixed league play yet. More than happy to nab him in NL-only, and the velocity is intriguing, but I need to see him get strikeouts and succeed in the Majors before Gbuying. |
| 95 | Charlie Morton, HOU | Yeah, yeah, I argue about strikeouts then rank a pumpkin like Morton… He’s a groundballer, and probably so far off everyone’s radar that they’re pissed he’s taken Musgrove’s spot, but Morton has transformed as a pitcher. He’s made mechanical changes, and in his brief 2016, was throwing absolute gas, averaging 94.3 MPH on the sinking fastball. Plus he has a 89.9 MPH cutter now! And even with the heat, in his small sample 2016, he was throwing the off-speed stuff a lot more, which could make him a usable K source. His 2016 ended early due to a terrible, fluke hamstring injury covering first, so it’s not like his arm had issues throwing harder in his older age. I’m excited to see where this goes. |
| 96 | Jose De Leon, TB | Love his stuff, love the Ks, but we just don’t know when we’ll see him, and he’s got a little back injury right now which pushes back his early camp work. He only pitched 103.1 innings last year in AAA and the Majors, so I think the Rays are going to treat him with extreme kid’s gloves. I work right next to where the Durham Bulls play, so I’ll do some live scouting this year :) |
| 97 | Andrew Triggs, OAK | Man, where did Oakland get there outta nowhere starter intriguers?! Is intriguers a word?! He has some amazing K:BB ratios through the Minors, and in his brief 56.1 innings in the Majors last year, 8.79:2.08 K:BB. Now, a lot of that was out of the bullpen, but damn, in his 7 starts, 2.70 ERA 0.79 WHIP, 23:1 K:BB. Whoa nelly! That said, he’s a 90.5 fastball guy relying heavily on his cutter as the main off-speed, so I kinda think he could go through a bad adjustment stretch. Pretty interesting to monitor though. |
| 98 | Jesse Chavez, LAA | This will be another off-the-beaten-path option that I find kinda intriguing. Pitched solely out of the bullpen last year, and had his best K:BB (8.46:2.42) of his career. ERA and WHIP got a little inflated by BABIP and homers, but his velo ramped way back up to 93.2 on the fastball and by far a career best 91.5 with the cutter, so I’m kinda hoping for one of those David Phelps-esque steps forward, with the faith he can still throw hard back in the rotation. This might be his last opportunity to start, and he’s in a good park, so I see some sneaky AL-only value here. |
| 99 | Luis Severino, NYY | Ugh, Severino is like Pineda, but even worse! Great Ks, decent BB rate, just gets murdered when it’s in the zone. High BABIP, high HR rate, and just like Pineda, doesn’t have enough of a velocity mix. 96.1 fastball, 88.3 slider, 88.9 change-up. Just no range there, so hitters aren’t kept off-balance. He said he devoted his off-season to the change-up, and pure ability is there, so he barely cracks the ranks on upside, but I’m likely passing until really late in deepers. Pitcher Profile – August 31, 2015 |
| 100 | Lucas Giolito, CHW | Holy hell, we’re at the end! I had a few more vet names that I decided to kick out for the upside of Giolito, and hoping that the change of scenery after a horrible 2016 campaign will be enough to have him a be a big impactor in the second half. I still like Lopez more for this season because I think he’s up sooner, but damn the White Sox made some good moves this off-season to rebuild. |
Thanks for reading, Razzball Nation! And as always, my ranks remain fluid with your thoughts and opinions as well. Let me know which guys I need to tweak as we prepare for the season, and of course let me know if I have any egregious typos or a team wrong or something. After spending weeks on this, my brain is a little mush! Anyway, thanks again for stopping by, and happy pitching for 2017!
