Who could forget our first visit over to Finnegan’s?! Grabbin’ a pint, singin’ some odes, and getting so sloshed we’re coming back for mo’!
As we saw in his first career start last year, Brandon Finnegan looked kinda blah to me. And after an early-season near no-hit bid against the Cubs, Finnegan’s effectiveness was a range from blah-to-awful. His walk rate was terrible especially next to an equally atrocious K-rate, and Finnegan could not be further off my radar. But suddenly some Ks started popping up with equally sudden success, which beat writers reported could be contributed to learning a change-up from Dan Straily. After heavily using what I’m assuming was a different change-up grip at the start of the season through his first 4 starts (close to 25% of the time), Finnegan then barely threw it 10% of the time over his next 21 starts . As I mentioned in that pitcher profile from last year, his change-up looked pretty below average and I’m guessing he more-or-less scrapped it from his main arsenal. But over his last 4 starts, he’s got an insane 35:8 K:BB in 25.0 IP with a 2.16 ERA. I obviously haven’t watched too much Finnegan, but I have added him in several of my leagues due to glowing reports on this new change-up (and of course, recent result), so I decided to profile him to see how it’s really looking. Here’s how he fared yesterday afternoon against the Bucs:
First Inning: Finnegan’s first pitch is a – wouldn’t ya know it – change-up that drops low to Jordy Mercer, 1-0. Then fastball on the hands gets a routine fly to right center, quick first out. Little slider gets the backdoor 0-1 to Josh Bell – no velocity readings so far, I’m not sure what’s up with the gun… Fastball misses, high fastball fouled off, then a high two-seam with some great tailing movement gets Bell reaching out of the zone for Finny’s first K.
Two-seamer runs outside to Andrew McCutchen, carbon copy same pitch again is outside, that nasty change-up gets a foul-tip into the mitt 2-1, change-up again taken in the top of the zone for strike two, change-up again looked to have plenty of the plate but I guess called low, 3-2.
Then slider goes into the dirt for a walk. Annoying walk there. So two down, and high two-seamer gets a whiff from Jung Ho Kang, fastball sails high, beautiful change-up sticks on the inside black 1-2, then fastball on the hands gets an easy pop to second, and a pretty easy first inning.
Second Inning: Get your early drinks at Finnegan’s mate, 5 runs put on the board for the Irishman! So protecting a 5-0 lead, and Finny hangs an outside slider, 1-0 to David Freese. Change-up drop in there – this pitch is unreal – but of course I curse it with an outside change-up oppo fielded to right for a leadoff single. Hard two-seamer I think sinks low and in to Gregory Polanco, two-seamer again with nasty run breaks well inside again, then two-seamer yet again gets a whiff on the inside edge, change-up gets a whiff, slider in the dirt makes it full, hard two-seamer tipped foul, then two-seam again is just breaking too much and runs inside for a walk. Yikes, so runners on first and second with no outs, and fastball is high to Sean Rodriguez, fastball again is low, fastball on the hands ties him up for a whiff, change barely tails inside, then sinking fastball is low, bases loaded – not outs. Sheesh. Change in there to Chris Stewart, fastball dips low, two-seamer runs outside, two-seam again fouled off, then an inside change-up ties him up for his second K. Two-seamer gets a huge whiff from Ryan Vogelsong, change-up hits the inside black, two-seam runs outside, two-seam again fouled back, then change-up perfectly paints that inside black again for his 3rd K looking. K-trax had it in the zone as well, nasty. Change again stays high to Mercer, fastball fouled off, change falls low, fastball fouled off, change-up staying right down the middle luckily gets a foul, then change again right at the bottom black gets an easy pop to first and Finnegan wriggles his way out of it. Tough inning!
Third Inning: Now a 6-0 lead, and slider hangs high, 1-0 to Bell. At 48 pitches already, it might not be a long outing. change misses, change again is high, the change one more time is barely high, 4 pitch walk. Ugh. Two-sermer gets the inside corner to McCutchen, change is low, then two-seam again is flied routinely to right center, one down. Then first pitch to Kang is a fastball dribbled through the left gap for a weak single. Weak! Then again on the first pitch, a little slider is hit pretty hard to left, but it’s caught out there without too much stress for the second out. Two pitches, two outs in a row. Sorely needed. Slider drops low to Polanco, fastball fouled off Polanco’s foot for some pain, 1-1 slider bounces in the dirt, two-seam sinks low and in, fastball right in there, then fastball paints the outside black for another K looking. Polanco then whines his way to an ejection. Womp womp!
Fourth Inning: At 62 pitches and still protecting a 6-0 lead, Finny drops a change in there to S-Rod, change-up gets a monster whiff – I’ll be interested to see Finnegan’s swinging strikes this game – slider drops low, damn, change-up looked to hit the outside corner but called a ball, but Finnegan stays out there and gets a lazy pop to center, one down. Then fastball on the hands of Stewart is inside-outed to right for a single. Fastball fouled back by pinch-hitter Jason Rogers, change hits the inside black, then 0-2 change-up gets Rogers reaching, and it’s a routine double-play ball to get Finnegan through a quick inning.
Fifth Inning: Now 7-0, and Finnegan opens it up low to Mercer, 1-0. Fastball fouled off, nice tight slider pulled well foul, then holy crap – CHANGE-UP!
Strike three! Change yet again gets a whiff from Bell, change again on the inside black, change drops low, then a high hanging slider gets a weak dribbler that’s just outside the reach of a diving Brandon Phillips for a weak single. Weak! Oh just noticed we have radar readings now! 93 MPH is low to McCutchen, change at 82 hangs high, then that nasty two-seamer barely misses the inside black, two-seam again drops low, then 3-1 Finny sticks with the two-seamer which is in there, but hanging off-speed of some sort is inside for a walk, runners on first and second. 92 MPH fastball outside to Kang, 92 again inside, then 91 MPH two-seamer gets a weak flare to right for a single.
Look at the movement though! And the third weak hit of his 5 singles allowed. So bases loaded yet again with only one out, and change drops in there to Freese, 0-1. Two-seam breaks outside, two-seam again dribbled just foul, then a monster change-up gets a huge whiff from Freese, 6th K from Finnegan. Gnarly! Two-seamer fouled off by Adam Frazier, 93 MPH heat again fouled off, then slider dropping in the dirt gets Frazier swinging for Finnegan’s 7th K. Nasty!
Final Line: W 5.0 IP 95 Pitches (55 Strikes) 0 ER 5 Hits 5 Walks 7 K Gamescore: 57 Gamescore+: 68
Final Analysis: I was having some beers while watching football and profiling Finnegan, so excuse any typos! Stupid Cardinals offense playing like poo against the Pats… Oh yeah, baseball! And what a crazy disparity there for Finnegan with the Gamescore+. 7 Ks in 5 innings will skew to the +, and as mentioned in the 5th inning there, 3 of his 5 hits allowed (all 5 were singles) were weak contact, and only one in-play out did I score as anything other than the weakest out.
We didn’t have radar readings most of this start, but Finnegan was at 92.5 MPH with the heater, about in line with what we saw last year. Overall his fastball velo has been down a little bit in 2016 over 2015, but the two-seamer just looked nasty. Yeah, I GIFfed one that was a hit, but it was showing Kang just guide a nasty-moving pitch – nothing was getting centered up on by the Pirates hitters. I think even Finnegan was surprised by the two-seam movement, contributing to the walk issues. But to the subject of pretty much this whole Profile – that new change-up was a beaut. He threw it 25.3% of the time this start – the most he’s utilized it since the former change-up he had in April. And velocity readings confirm it’s a completely different change-up then the beginning of the season. Through the first 4 starts when he was using the old change-up, it was sitting well over 85 MPH. This new stretch over the last 5 starts, it’s going about 83.5 MPH, with no changes to the fastball velo. If you looked at Finnegan’s profile from last year that I linked in the intro, I mentioned I hated his change-up not having the velocity differentiation vs. the fastball – now he has it. He was able to throw the new change for strikes, keep them on the edges of the zone, and get whiffs out of the zone. Finnegan also mixed in his slider; it didn’t quite have the usefulness of the two-seam or change, but his last pitch on the day was a swinging K with it, and it helped to round out his arsenal.
Wow, I thought this might just be a little flash in the pan to end 2016, but I think this new change-up will get Finnegan on my sleeper list next year. Remember he’s just learned it! Imagine what he could do with a full offseason to prepare a 30% use rate with that pitch. It’s what he should do, and hopefully what the Reds have him prepare for as a starter heading into 2017. For the final run this season, as long as Finnegan is in the rotation, I think I’m using him. Yes the WHIP was high this start, but a chunk of that was BABIP. We do have to be concerned they might innings-limit him, but it looks like he gets home at the Pirates again, @MIL then @STL to close out the year. I have confidence using him in at least those first two.
Sorry I missed you guys last week, but I took Labor Day off from laboring! Although, I did still labor through a Podcast with Grey… So there’s that! As I mentioned in my last Profile, ranks are just impossible to maintain with very little action left – pitchers within even 30 or 40 spots of each other could change due to matchups or 6-man rotations. But of course, any questions you have for spot starts or who to own the rest of the way, shoot them below!
What are your thoughts on Wily Peralta lately? He’s looked pretty good since getting called back up.
Counterpoint- he is Wily Peralta, so the bottom can fall out at any time.
Just not sure if I should roll with this guy or not. Playoffs man, we’re talking playoffs!
@TJ: Yeah he’s looked better… Found his slider which he didn’t have early in the season, but even with it, he’s mostly a two-pitch guy.
I’m streaming him in a few daily leagues. Weekly Pts or weekly H2h? Def playing him in Pts. H2H it’s risky, but I like the two starts and he’s missing enough bats, depending on options I might roll with it!
Need to replace Salazar for league finals: Would you roll with a Tony Disco, Folty or Rodon?
@TK: Rodon has just been too good lately, I’ll stick with him to finish strong!
Second round of h2h playoffs
Please pick 3 pitchers from list below
Matt Moore STL (weaver)
Albert Suarez SD (richard) AND STL (garcia)
Gausmen @bos (porcello)
Bundy – Pitches Tuesday @bos (pomeranz) but I cant figure out if he is pitching Sunday
Hammel – Same issue. Pitches Tuesday @stl (garcia) but not sure about Sunday
Junior Guerra @Cin (adelman)
Please help me!
@Shivdaddy: Whewwww. Ya know, Suarez has looked good to me. H2H pts or cats? I think I will go Suarez, Moore, Guerra.
JB-
In the final 4 this week, need to sit one closer out of:
Wade Davis
Ed Diaz
Al Colome
Davis has been flak since returning and I think I read he wont pitch back to backs……
Thnx!!
@Mcgaffer: Last 4 teams, cut down those nets! Eesh that’s tough. Well Davis just did a back to back, so I think I’s stick with him and Diaz since they’re the better teams…
JB! What’s up? I have 2 games left to start, with Arrieta, Hamels and Hammel.
Next up:
Arrieta vs Mil on 17 Sep
Hamels vs Oak on 16 Sep
Hamels vs LAA on 21 Sep
Hammel @ StL on 13 Sep
Hammel vs Cin on 19 Sep
Which two of these games would you start? Which two would you avoid, just in case I can work out some overage on one of those dats?
@Scott: If I can hold out until the 21st, there are a lot of streaming options, according to SON. Next best is the 17th. None are your usual names. The 19th has Walker vs TOR, Rubby @SD, and Skaggs @Tex.
@Scott: 2 games left, crunch time! I am avoiding Hammel after his last blow up, first two guys are on a different tier. I would go Arrieta MIL and Hamels OAK. Nah, those streaming options aren’t worth waiting for for me
That pitch that Kang hit looks exactly the same that Bell struck out on. You don’t want to use it on a long-swinger. LOL.
@Scott: Well true, but Kang is hitting like .500+ the past two weeks! And he like guided it, wasn’t hit too hard. Crazy movement tho!
1) Looking to squeeze a couple of extra wins out of this week’s pitchers. The following 2-start guys are available. Please rank your top three.
Pineda v LAD ($4.9) @TB ($21.9) – far and away the highest SON values, but SON has had a hard-on (oil leak?) for Pineda all year long, but I owned him and have seen the horrific results.
Skaggs vSEA ($17.8) @TEX ($5.5)
Ed-Rod vNYY (-$!$.2) @BAL (-15.2) – as opposed to Pineda, this guy has been solid the entire 2nd half, but no respect from SON.
Rubby vCOL ($3.8) @SD ($5.2)
Rodon vCLE ($1.7) @KC ($1.0)
2) Any news on Jo-Fer or Fulmer ‘s starts? Many rumors of being shut-down or pushed-back, but what’s the real deal?
3) Can you rank the following three 1-start guys? Lugo (vMIN $10.6) over either Ray (vLAD $10.7) or Gio (@ATL $10.7)
@Five-On-One: Ed-Rod vNYY is -$14.2 on SON. Stupid little finger stayed on the shift key far too long.
@Five-On-One: 1. Haha on E-Rod, yeah give me the lefties!~ E Rod and Rodon. Rodon has just been awesome. 2. Fulmer definitely pushed back, I dropped him in some redrafts. I kinda think he will still make a start or two if DET stays in it. I think Jo-Fer has a solid 2 starts left to get him to 180 which was their number all along. 3. Dodgers have had trouble with Ray, give me Ray, Lugo, Gio
how would you rank them in a keeper? Finnegan, Bundy, Ray, Phelps
thanks
@Slimbo: Definitely Bundy first. Then I’ll lean Ray for upside, Finnegan, Phelps
JB! I could use some help on my lineup for a weekly points league.
Standard hitting points, but no penalty for Ks and 2 points for SB.
With pitchers it’s 10 points for a W, 5 for QS, -5 for L, 1 for K and IP, -1 for BB and ER. 7.5 for SV
Hitters: Pick 2 for the week ahead:
Buxton ([email protected], [email protected])
Grandyman ([email protected], [email protected] and 6 righties)
Kiermaier ([email protected], [email protected])
Gurriel (3vOAK, [email protected])
Cron (3vSEA, 4vTOR)
Grichuk (3vCHC, [email protected])
And pitchers, pick one…
Hammel (@STL…and maybe vMIL?)
L. Weaver (@SF)
Gausman (@BOS)
Would you start Gee (vOAK and vCHW) over Cody Allen or Osuna…7.5 points for sv…
Thanks!
@Noam: Yo! Granderson has been hot, ugh these are tough. I kinda wanna lean Buxton and Kiermaier and play hot hands and 7 game guys. But I’m not the best source for hitter starts!
Hammel scares me, and I bet they 6 man it as you mention. Give me Weaver. And I’m a sucker for Gee, I would probably roll him out there! Leaning sitting Osuna
@JB Gilpin: Ok! Thanks! Gee scares me, hope you’re right! Do you think he gets his two starts?
@Noam: Crap I misworded/mistyped that haha. I meant I’m a sucker for “two-start guys” in Pts leagues, even if theyre shitty lol. Yeah I think he makes em both
You said it. Impossible to know what rotations will look like. Rolling with max, cueto, Lester, Quintana, Roark. Pick two from the rest. Desclafani, gio g, j. Hammel, smyly, Guerra, bundy, Estrada. Leaning gio and Estrada. Playoffs!!!
@Chris: Yeah man, it’s a minefield to end the season.
H2H Pts or Cats? Gio is @ATL again next, right? Got hit hard against them last time, so I don’t like that one. I feel like going Desclafani and Estrada as my 2
@JB Gilpin: h2h points. Yeah, was worried about disco cuz he’s getting skipped. I always try to avoid gio.
@Chris: Damn my bad, yeah I saw the pushed back one day, not fully skipped…
Hey JB! What do you think about Robbie Ray this week (v. COL, v. LAD)? He was just dropped and I’m thinking of snagging him for my H2H semis matchup this week…
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Two start week, I’m def in ! He’s pitched well against the Dodgers, they’ve been bad against lefties
@JB Gilpin: Thanks! Hopefully he’s supergreen and not superGreene.
Are you starting Ervin Santana tonight against Detroit? He’d been on such a run before those recent couple of duds…but it’s a QS league (he’s usually good for at least 6 IP) and in playoffs I feel like you want every stat out there…
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Def supergreen to me! Sorry I missed ya, ya I probably would have…
@JB Gilpin: No worries! I started him, missed out on the QS and W, but got a solid 3.00 / 1.00 so I’m happy.
What do you think of Urias today? SON isn’t in love, but I feel like LAD would pull Urias at the first sign of struggle due to IP cap, no?
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Yup that def works!
Yeah the innings are a question mark, but I think it’s a good enough matchup, I streamed him in an RCL as well
Anyone know if Strailly is getting 2 starts this week? Yahoo shows him starting Tuesday and again on Sat or sun. But espn doesn’t show him starting at all.
@Grizza3569: I heard last Fri he was supposed to, I wouuld imagine so…
Start Urias for his 2 starts…@NYY and @ARI
OR Either Hammel or Wainwright….
I could also start none of the above and start an extra RP in Ramos…
@Oranje: Sorry I was late! I would prob lean Waino, I’m not positive Urias would make em both. Nah, still Waino over Ramos too, but prib too late…
Blackmon or Buxton for the week?
Need HR’s and Steals equally.
@M: Sorry if I was late! gimme blackmon
@JB Gilpin: Np! Went Blackmon before lineups locked! Thanks!
@M: Noice! Any time!
Speaking of Reds SP’s..What do you think of Amir Garrett..Frontline SP or mid rotation kind of guy?
Great write -up as per the usual!
@Malicious Phenoms: Mid rotation. Heavy sinker ball so I worry about K rate, but I do like him. Thanks for reading man, really appreciate it!
JB
Good stuff as always. Quick SP question for you. 5X5 — looking for best all around starting pitching stats. How do you rank these 3 starts :
J. Gray vs SD
T. Skaggs vs SEA
J. Paxton vs HOU
Thanks
@PITCH MY TITS OFF.: Hmmm, I’m iffy on the lefties… I’ll lean Gray of these 3. Any time!
Stephen Gonsalves Twins
Kevin Gadea Mariners
thoughts on them
@Malicious Phenoms: Gadea is obviously still a good ways out, but burst onto the scene. I worry he could be like Phil Bickford with nasty low-A numbers and could take a step back advancing, or just maintaining. Gonsalves a little older, in higher minors, yes BB rate was kinda bad this year, but I think he’s a tier or two higher
@JB Gilpin: Thanks man!
@JB Gilpin: In a forever roto 5×5, 10 teams, 60 man roster keeper, would you want the two guys I mentioned above or Braxton and Amir Garrett..
cheers
@Malicious Phenoms: Also out there are Mike Sorkoa and Joey Wentz of the Braves, Jordan Sheffield, Dakota Hudson or Matt Manning..So out of the nine, which two have the best long term value? Not worried about age or how long it takes to get to the majors, just the best 2 overall in your opinion..
thanks
@Malicious Phenoms: I do like Garrett – maybe not the same upside because his K rate as I mentioned before – but I think he’s the most likely to be a mid-rotation guy.
Which Braxton, or did you mean Keon Broxton?
Def taking Garrett #1. Def might wanna go to the Prospect dudes and ask them this on their Podcast thread or a Ralph thread, but I think it’s him and Gonsalves
@JB Gilpin: Braxton Garrett
@Malicious Phenoms: Ohhhhh haha. Yeah makes sense when I read that back now. Meh, he’s so far out, he’s not in my top 2 or 3
Need a lil help with my staff. Salazar has a mild UCL/firarm, out 3-4 weeks. Not sure they DL him though with expanded rosters so Im contemplating dropping him. I can only keep 4 guys, not sure Salazar(5th rd value) would be one of them, and not sure I can win with a dead arm taking up a spot.
Also have Phelps still on the DL, hadn’t activated him yet, saw he was used in relief tonight, so Im not sure he’s going back in the rotation.So do I drop Salazar and Phelps. If I do I’d essentially have one open spot: what order would you prioritize adding the following guys: Guerra, Boyd, Skaggs, Bundy, or Paxton?
Roster is as follows:
ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS daily moves and 4 keepers per season
C Posey
1B Cabrera
2B Daniel Murphy
3B Seager
SS A. Russell
OF Trout
OF Dahl
OF Polanco
UTIL OF Buxton
UTIL C/DH Sanchez
Bench 2B/SS/3B Baez
Bench DH Morales
SP Rodon
SP Porcello
RP Jansen
RP Melancon
P Price
P Rodon
P DeSclafani
P Salazar
Bench RP Kimbrel
Bench RP Familia
Bench SP Weaver
DL SP Matz
DL SP Phelps
@My Thread Count Is High: Yeah Salazar has had way too many arm issues, I’m gonna be VERY iffy on him next year. He can def go. I’d drop them both indeed. Those guys are all in the same range, 100% depends on matchup at this point, Guerra being in NL sticks out of the 5
Hey JB. Kind of stuck for the playoffs. Had Glasnow in my NA slot but he was activated so now I have to either play him or drop him. It is a keeper league but we only keep 10 so I doubt that he gets kept. I also have Gausman who looks like he is matching up with the Red Sox for back to back starts. Not ideal. Would you drop both of those guys for a streamer?
Available steamers include
Iwakuma @ LAA
Sabathia vs LAD
Cole vs NYM
Pineda vs LAD
Kickoff vs PIT
E.Rodriguez vs NYY
Thanks
@JJ: Yeahhhh, he’s prob not a keeper, still worried he doesn’t have a 3rd pitch. So yeah you can prob lose him, ughhhh yeah it’s hard to trust Gausman, I’ll lean streaming E Rod, but it’s close
@JB Gilpin:
Hey JB
I took another look and noticed that quite a few of those guys were taken.
here is the edited list
Who do you like best of the following
WED
Iwakuma @LAA
A.Sanchez vs MIN
musgrove vs TEX
THURS
Eickoff vs PIT
Kuhl vs PHI
Jimenez vs TAM
Montgomery vs MLW
FRI
L.Weaver @ SF
McHugh @ SEA
@JJ: Damn, E Rod gone. Thanks for providing matchups! I think I’m rolling the dice on an Aaron Sanchez bounceback. Was bad against the Red Sox – I think I can give him a pass there. Not a slam dunk, but I’m not loving there other matchups too much
@JB Gilpin:
Damn.
Thats actually Anibel there.
@JJ: Haha oops. Yeah Aaron wouldn’t pitch until this weekend either haha.. Weaver feels safe, but I could see him getting singled to death in SF. I’m between Eickhoff and Montgomery… Gimme Montgomery, the Brewers did just see him, but we play AWFUL at Wrigley lately it feels like
@JB Gilpin:
Do you like any of the other starts?
@JJ: Eickhoff is close, but not in love with the others
Your help has been golden so I am going to yhe well again. Points league semi finals.
Sat. Lugo Min , Santana NYY or DeSclafani @ Pit
Sun. DeLeon @ AZ or Ray LAD Thanks in advance!!!
@9 Men on grass: glad I’ve helped out! I’m a little worried the skipped sta is gonna mess with Desclafani, give me Lugo. Mannnn Sunday is tough! I like them both, I think I might lean de Leon