Before we point fingers and exclaim how “right or wrong” we are, know that I am writing this intro BEFORE Aaron Nola‘s start yesterday afternoon.  I don’t want my intro to sully my thoughts from the top down.  The post needs to read like a before-and-after!  Kinda like how Grey slammed my Joe Ross rank endlessly on the Pod “before” the season, and even with awesome results “after” 5 starts, he’s still going to find ways to troll me on him…  Sigh…  Also, I need to use a thesaurus on the word “before”…

So why was I so slow to sip any of the Nola Kool-Aid?  Well, here’s the red flags I saw PRIOR TO yesterday’s start: .227 BABIP, he averages 90.0 on his fastball, was never a K guy through the Minors, K rate has jumped from 7.88 in 77.2 IP last year to 9.90 in 40.0 IP this year, and finally, he’s looking like a 2-pitch guy right now with 59.5% fastballs and 33.7% curveballs.  Now, I admittedly use Fangraphs as my reference, and maybe he mixes a few fastball variants and he’s leaning off his change-up since his curve is working so well right now.  Unless you’re in the MLB Man Cave, you’re not watching every single SP every start (plus you’re like, a few weeks behind the current action, so that’s lame), so I concede I hadn’t watched Nola yet this year.  But after the Nola-grilling on my ranks in the comments last week, seeing Nola was getting the start on Sunday made him the prime Pitcher to be Profiled.  Here’s how he looked yesterday afternoon in the Crayola Canyon:

First Inning: Nola’s first pitch is a fastball on the outside edge that Ichiro slaps to second for an easy first pitch out.  90 MPH fastball is in there to Martin Prado, then a hanging curveball on the inside edge at 75 MPH is flared to left with Tyler Goeddel making a diving catch for the second out.  Pretty hard hit out there.  Then wow, 90 MPH looked a few inches outside to Christian Yelich but it’s called strike one, might be a big zone today.  Fastball high, then heater again low and inside is tapped to second, and the routine out makes it a quick 5-pitch inning.

Second Inning: Game moving along quickly with the Phillies only getting one baserunner through two and Justin Bour takes an 89 MPH fastball high, 1-0.  89 MPH is slung in there and looked like it barely nipped the high black, curveball stays outside, 88 MPH stays outside, then a dangerous 3-1 pitch is a fastball on the outside edge chopped to second for another easy out.  Nice first-pitch curveball barely misses the zone to Marcell Ozuna at 77 MPH, and you can see the power of that pitch.

Aaron-Nola-Curveball-1Then Nola follows it up with his best fastball at 91 MPH on the outside edge to even it up 1-1.

Aaron-Nola-FastballI do like that mix right there.  But then the jinx of the GIF catches me with a fastball on the low inside black grounded up the gap for a single.  Wasn’t hit too hard, just found the opening.  Fastball at 90 MPH is in there to Derek Dietrich, then a check at first skips away from Darin Ruf and it moves Ozuna to second.  Yeah, totally on Nola there, terrible throw.  0-1 is a 91 MPH fastball inside, and man, just noticing Nola has a really long delivery.  I’m going to dig into his stolen base metrics when we wrap up pitch-by-pitch.  Another pitch outside, then a nasssssty change-up at 83 gets a whiff, 2-2.

Aaron-Nola-ChangeupMannnnn, he only throws these like 6% of the time?!  Might see an arsenal change coming.  Nola then foolishly throws a 2-2 fastball right into the lefty’s wheelhouse and it’s smoked third deck foul.  Almost a monster homer from Dietrich.  Then curveball at 77 gets Dietrich missing it for Nola’s first K.

Aaron-Nola-Curveball-277 MPH is pretty good velo for a curveball!  Curve again at 76 is low and outside to J.T. Realmuto, curve again barely misses the outside edge sweeping across the zone, fastball in there, 91 MPH heater is outside, then 3-1 fastball is lined over Nola’s head, but is fielded on the backhand by Cesar Hernandez at second to end the inning.  And I burnt through all 4 of my GIFs in that one inning, so I apparently like Nola’s stuff a lot more than I anticipated!

Third Inning: Still a 0-0 game and Adeiny Hechavarria takes a sinking 89 MPH fastball on the inside third for strike one, fastball again up and in, fastball is in there, then a curveball that hung a bit on the inside edge is lined to third, but it’s caught for the first out.  Another pretty hard hit out.  Up is opposing pitcher Justin Nicolino who takes outside, fastball barely nips the low inside corner, fastball on the outside edge slashed foul, then a curveball dropping out of the zone gets another swinging K, two down on Nola’s second strikeout.  Back to the top and Ichiro takes a 91 MPH fastball for strike one, then a nasty curveball that backdoors the outside black is in there 0-2, then fastball on the inside corner barely misses the zone and easily could’ve been a called strike 3, 1-2.  Fastball tipped back foul, curveball is dribbled up the first base line but rolls foul, then curve again is rolled over to first for an easy third out.  Nola is at 23 consecutive scoreless innings now!  Crazy.

Fourth Inning: 89 MPH is in there to Prado as the game remains scoreless, sinking fastball at 87 is called barely low, 2-0.  Nola I think goes change-up at 83 and it’s smoked to center for a leadoff single.  Might be tough to keep it scoreless now, then again, no Giancarlo Stanton…  Fastball is low to Yelich, fastball again with a little cut on it barely misses inside, back-to-back 2-0 counts.  And yet again a 2-0 pitch is smoked to center on a liner right through Nola’s legs, this time on a fastball, and it puts runners on the corners.  Nola just can’t afford to fall behind in counts.  And as the broadcast mentions, Nola threw that one on a slide step trying to control the running game, which goes back to my comment above in the second inning on his long, lumbering delivery.  Fastball inside to Bour, and Nola just isn’t getting ahead.  Then curveball sweeping into the low middle of the zone is crushed between first and second for an RBI single; it ends Nola’s scoreless streak and there’s still no one out with runners at 1st and 2nd.  91 MPH fastball is in there to Ozuna, curveball sweeps way low and outside, curve again gets a whiff that broke into the zone, then Nola sweeps that curve to go low and outside in the dirt, and the swing-happy Ozuna whiffs way over it for a huge 3rd K for Nola.  Interesting first-pitch change-up hangs way high and outside to Dietrich, fastball is in there, then after a quick meeting at the mound, an 89 MPH fastball in Dietrich’s wheelhouse is rocketed to right for an RBI ground-rule double.  Nola caught a break there too since Bour scored easily before they rule it a ground-rule double bouncing off the black portion of the wall that is out of play.  So a ton of trouble that Nola finds himself in and he’s high to Realmuto, curveball gets in there 1-1, curve again sweeps well low and inside, fastball on the inside edge is hit a mile high just foul, then a curveball sweeping just off the plate is tapped to short, but the only play is to first and Bour scores on the RBI groundout.  Three runs given up now, but thankfully there’s two outs and a fastball is high to Hechavarria, 1-0.  Fastball again misses, then a 2-0 fastball is yanked low and outside by Nola and it goes to the backstop for a wild pitch.  This is not the Nola I was expecting…  Nola throws an intentional ball to walk Hechavarria, and up is Nicolino who chops foul a first-pitch curveball, 0-1.  Curveball sweeps in the backdoor 0-2, same pitch is tipped foul, curve again a little lower is spoiled again foul, then a fastball gets right on the outer third and is taken by Nicolino for strike three to get Nola out of a tough, grinding inning.

Fifth Inning: Still a 0-3 game and Ichiro slaps a fastball on the outside edge to short, and it’s another leadoff one-pitch out on an outside fastball to Ichiro.  Makes life easy!  Curveball drops into the low inside black for strike one on Prado, then Nola tries the same spot – the curve isn’t quite as sharp and Prado hits a laser off the wall in left for a double.  Curve drops low to Yelich, then fastball chopped weakly to second gets an easy out, two down.  Nola goes to the rarely-used change-up to get a foul from Bour 0-1, fastball high and tight, change-up again goes low, change yet again nipped back foul, Nola climbs the ladder with an 88 MPH fastball high, then a 3-2 curveball catches the outside black with some great backdoor break and gets Nola out of the inning.

Sixth Inning: The Phils pick up 3 runs to lift up Nola, who opens the bottom of the sixth with a fastball on the hands dribbled foul on his 80th pitch, 0-1.  Nola just misses, big sweeping curve that goes off the plate gets a whiff, curve hangs inside and low, 2-2 is another curve on the inside fouled back, 91 MPH fastball slashed foul (with a Marlins fan making an unreal backhand catch while holding a baby), then fastball again chopped to third for the first out.  Fastball misses to Dietrich, change-up flutters low, then fastball in the zone is rolled up to first for another easy out.  Fastball in there to Realmuto, curveball breaks low and outside, curve again that was going to sweep in for a strike gets a swing-and-miss, then curve again is grounded towards the gap, but Cesar Hernandez makes a great play and 180’s himself for the throw to get Nola through a 1-2-3 inning.  And the Phillies would nab another run to give Nola a 4-3 lead as they hand it over to the bullpen, which Andrew Bailey would promptly blow… But the Phillies still ended up getting the W down the road.

Final Line:  ND  6.0 IP  93 Pitches (59 Strikes)  3 ER  6 Hits  1 Walk  5 K  Gamescore: 52 Gamescore+: 53.0

Final Analysis: Hmmmmm, not quite sure what to make of this start.  It’s kinda like a microcosm of what I would’ve expected from a Nola start heading into the year – a few hits, barely any walks, and a nice-but-not-elite K-rate.  He wasn’t quite to the level of a top-flight pitcher like how he’s looked like on paper coming into yesterday afternoon.  His Gamescore+ came out just above his Gamescore, but they were comparable in a mixed-bag sort of start.

As expected, his fastball sat right at 90 on average, topping out at 91 MPH.  He got some nice sink with the heater, but most importantly, he can locate.  I don’t remember a single fastball in the middle portion of the zone, just constantly working both sides of the plate.  His bread and butter is the curveball, which he was able to locate for strikes and bury in the dirt as his out pitch.  However he did hang a few, and the broadcast mentioned that it didn’t have the same “bite” consistently as his curve usually has.  Finally he features a change-up; unfortunately my GIFs may have done a disservice as that GIFfed change-up was by far his best on the day.  A few fluttered away and it’s not a consistent pitch for him based on what I saw this outing and its low usage thus far in 2016.

While I will admit I was probably a bit slow in moving Nola up, I still didn’t see enough to get him into my top-40 ROS.  I know I might get some flack on that, but I gotta stick to my guns and with what I saw yesterday.  Even though it was a “quality start”, this was against an atrocious team in a pitcher’s park (Prado and Dietrich’s doubles might’ve pushed for homers in Citizen’s Bank).  The Marlins batted Ichiro leadoff and Stanton got a day off…  And while he gave up 4 singles as his 6 hits, none of them were cheap.  His low BABIP is going to rise, and I worry about how well he can hold baserunners.  He’s allowed 2 steals this year and 5 last year, which isn’t terrible or anything, but after watching his delivery and his attempt at a slide-step pitch that went horribly wrong (Dietrich double), I think it’s a concern.  The curveball is certainly a great pitch for him, but even the broadcast was urging him to throw more change-ups so he wouldn’t become a two-pitch pitcher.  With how well it’s gone overall for Nola I would absolutely own him in all leagues, but there’s a few more question marks for me to rank him as a fantasy SP2 or 3 in ROS terms.  Then again, I did have 4 pitches I wanted to GIF in one inning, so maybe I’m stubbornly talking myself out of ranking him higher…

Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Jake Arrieta, CHC
3 Chris Sale, CWS
4 Max Scherzer, WAS
5 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
6 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
7 Jose Fernandez, MIA
8 Madison Bumgarner, SF
9 Corey Kluber, CLE
10 Gerrit Cole, PIT
11 Jacob deGrom, NYM
12 David Price, BOS
13 Chris Archer, TB
14 Jon Lester, CHC
15 Danny Salazar, CLE
16 Matt Harvey, NYM
17 Zack Greinke, ARI
18 Carlos Martinez, STL
19 Felix Hernandez, SEA
20 Drew Smyly, TB
21 Johnny Cueto, SF
22 Joe Ross, WAS
23 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
24 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
25 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
26 Carlos Rodon, CWS
27 Cole Hamels, TEX
28 Steven Matz, NYM
29 Taijuan Walker, SEA
30 Jeff Samardzija, SF
31 Yu Darvish, TEX
32 Sonny Gray, OAK
33 Vincent Velasquez, PHI
34 Francisco Liriano, PIT
35 Jason Hammel, CHC
36 Ian Kennedy, KC
37 Jose Quintana, CWS
38 Patrick Corbin, ARI
39 Marcus Stroman, TOR
40 Michael Wacha, STL
41 Kevin Gausman, BAL
42 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
43 Aaron Nola, PHI
44 Jordan Zimmermann, DET
45 Justin Verlander, DET
46 Wei-Yin Chen, MIA
47 Michael Pineda, NYY
48 Jake Odorizzi, TB
49 Kenta Maeda, LAD
50 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
51 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
52 Adam Wainwright, STL
53 John Lackey, STL
54 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
55 Jaime Garcia, STL
56 Adam Conley, MIA
57 Rich Hill, OAK
58 Matt Moore, TB
59 Tyler Glasnow, PIT
60 Juan Nicasio, PIT
61 Yordano Ventura, KC
62 Jerad Eickhoff, PHI
63 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
64 Tanner Roark, WAS
65 Drew Pomeranz, SD
66 Jose Berrios, MIN
67 Rick Porcello, BOS
68 Nate Karns, SEA
69 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
70 Sean Manaea, OAK
71 Lance McCullers, HOU
72 James Shields, SD
73 Mike Fiers, HOU
74 J.A. Happ, TOR
75 Luis Severino, NYY
76 Julio Teheran, ATL
77 Robbie Ray, ARI
78 Collin McHugh, HOU
79 Raisel Iglesias, CIN
80 Marco Estrada, TOR
81 Edinson Volquez, KC
82 Tyson Ross, SD
83 Scott Kazmir, LAD
84 Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
85 Blake Snell, TB
86 Shelby Miller, ARI
87 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
88 Chris Tillman, BAL
89 Andrew Cashner, SD
90 Mike Leake, STL
91 Derek Holland, TEX
92 Jon Niese, PIT
93 Hector Santiago, LAA
94 Josh Tomlin, CLE
95 Mat Latos, CWS
96 Lucas Giolito, WAS
97 Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
98 Tyler Duffey, MIN
99 Steven Wright, BOS
100 Junior Guerra, MIL

Dropped Out: Garrett Richards, LAA (uggghhhhh, TJ), A.J. Griffin, TEX (DL – shoulder stiffy)

  • I’ve been talking with Adam, a basketball writer over on Hoops who is a big Rays fan, and he thinks David Price gets frazzled way too easy.  Been a lot of frazzlin’ going on!  I really wanna start seeing that velo climb too, it’s about 2 MPH lower across the board from last year.  On the flip side, I watched highlights of this latest drubbing and he was keeping the ball down and some decent pitches were getting slapped for doubles.  BABIP is .373, LOB% is an unholy 54.2%, so I’m not burying him any time soon, just a little move down.
  • Here’s my big sell high right now – Cole Hamels.  Oh lord, I hadn’t taken a deep look at his numbers since ERA and Ks are fine, but it’s ugly past the surface!  .267 BABIP, really lucky 87.6% LOB, then the biggie – 4.14 BB/9, almost double a career-high.  So he’s walking everyone, but luckily stranding them so far.  He’s got by a good margin a career-high FIP thus far.  Yes it’s early, but he’s throwing his four-seamer less, cutter way more, and I think some rough starts are ahead especially as it heats up in the desert.
  • Speaking of walk rates, a guy I was way lower on than most was James Shields, who is walking guys EVEN MORE than last year, while striking out fewer.  A lucky BABIP and LOB% are shielding (see what I did there?!) him from numbers that look like a catastrophe.
  • I still don’t fully trust Rich Hill, but that’s in more of a ROS context.  I certainly would own him right now, but this could fall apart at any point for a never-done-this-before 36-year-old.
  • I wanted to move both Tanner Roark and Drew Pomeranz – power of the SP/RP! – up a little more, but both have some bad BB rates and I still think it’s a little smoke-and-mirrors.  Streamable for sure though…
  • Another dominant Minor League start for Tyler Glasnow, striking out 11 with only 1 walk in 7 innings.  He has a 1.64 ERA with a 48:13 K:BB in 33.0 IP.  It’s getting to be a little ridiculous he’s not in the Majors yet.
  • I guess at some point I have to believe in Rick Porcello a little bit, but besides this monstrous stride in K:BB, a lot of underlying numbers suggest regression is coming.
  • Looks like Eduardo Rodriguez is finally close to returning.  I ranked him high in early March before his knee injury due to word he has been developing a cutter, which should play extremely well with his high-velo 4-seamer.  I’m excited to see his 2016 debut.

 

So, Razzball Nation, am I indeed stubbornly talking myself out of ranking Nola higher as I should?  And what else needs some tweaking in my ROS ranks?  Shoot your thoughts below, and happy pitching!

  1. 740 says:
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    MY MAN JB! WAT IT DO?

    love these top 100 pitchers!

    10team h2h 6x5cats.
    P Corey Kluber, Cle SP PP
    P Chris Archer, TB SP
    P Sonny Gray, Oak SP PP
    P Mark Melancon, Pit RP
    P Brad Ziegler, Ari RP
    P Luke Gregerson, Hou RP
    P Aaron Nola, Phi SP
    P Gerrit Cole, Pit SP
    P Carlos Rodon, CWS SP

    Bench Rick Porcello, Bos SP
    Bench Kevin Gausman, Bal SP, RP
    DL Yu Darvish*, Tex SP  DL15

    who do i drop when YU comes off DL?
    also, Walker is on waiver. pick him up and drop?

    thanks bruh

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @740: WHAT IT DO WHAT IT DO?!?! Thanks for reading man! I know he’s been great so far, but right now it would be Porcello for me. Luckily we have a few more weeks to gauge that call. Taijuan Walker is avail?! Yes def getting him! I’d go ahead and lose Porcello now for him

      • 740 says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        cool will do!

        word, Walker is available. bout to pick up asap!

        thanks again!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @740: Noice! Sounds good!

  2. Harry says:
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    JB, what do you think about Jason Hammel? He has a great ERA but his FIP, XFIP, SIERA all scream that a huge regression is coming and he is not striking many out with runners on base instead he is walking people like crazy. Should I hold or sell him and what do you think I could get?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Harry: I ranked him well coming in and really like him still. Interesting info with him out of the stretch. While I have him 35, in a standard league that’s getting to be your last pitcher you’re holding onto and not streaming, so I’m till def good shopping him. I dunno if he’ll ever crack my top-30

  3. Rondo says:
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    10-team H2H Points league with only 7 starts allowed per week. I also have 2 open DL spots.

    My SPs: Salazar, Matz, Gausman, Quintana, Rodon, Samardzija, Hill, Iwakuma, Carrasco(DL)

    Waiver: Pomeranz, Happ, Glasnow, Tomlin, Colon, Karns, Corbin, Nelson

    1) Would you drop Iwakuma or one of the other SP’s on my roster for any of the guys above on waiver?

    2) Knowing there are only 7 starts per week and 4 bench spots for SP, is Glasnow worth the grab and wait right now?

    3) Would you pickup A.J. Griffin and hold him in an open DL spot?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Rondo: 1. Mehhhh probably not. Corbin I know I have ranked favorably still though. But I kinda trust Iwakuma’s high-floor more. 2. So 4 bench spots are dedicated to SP-only? or 4 bench spots in general? I’m leaning prob not in a shallower league, but if it’s 4 bench spots only for SP I might. 3. Sure, as long as you’re not dropping anyone any good. I prob wouldn’t drop any of your pitchers for him though, would have to be a bench bat. Any time!

  4. Noam says:
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    Love the pitcher profiles. Thanks for the hard work.

    Would you trade Nola for Pujols? Shallow league – 10 team yahoo. Is it close enough that it depends on my team needs?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Noam: Thanks man, thanks for reading! I certainly would do that deal and take Pujols

  5. Five-On-One says:
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    Hey JB – Love the weekly write-ups. I think you are coming around on Nola faster than many other ‘experts.’ I drafted him for a buck and have been enjoying the ride.

    I do wonder why you are still so high on Rodon and Pineda. Pineda has been getting the K’s, but inflicting much pain in every other category. SON actually LOVES his next two starts (vKC for $15.4 and @ARI for $18.5), but he has been riding my bench for his past two starts against BOS, where SON liked him also. Do you start or sit him for the next two (12-team, 5×5, 10 pitchers)?

    And no love for Alex Wood? He started poorly, but has put together a couple of decent outings – how close is he to cracking your top 100?

    thanks again.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Five-On-One: Thanks man! Yeah I def was too low, but I feel like he’s getting top 30ish treatment some places.

      I’m just happy Rodon isn’t walking anyone, and he hasn’t been awful. Still great K rate, I think he’s right there in taking that big step forward.

      Pineda I don’t think is a pumpkin yet, it has been disappointing, Still nice k:bb just getting murdered on some homers. I’m leaning I probably would.

      Wood is right on my cusp, just the numbers have still been iffy and I don’t like his rising BB rate. Velo up is encouraging tho

  6. Gonzo_The_Great says:
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    I was in Chicago this weekend and got to see the Scherzer and Roark starts.

    I never ever ever ever … ever … you get the picture … would have believed Scherzer would be the one letting up 7 earned runs while Roark would look pretty great against one of the best offenses in the league.

    Scherzer’s blow up looked like a weird combination of factors. Seemed like he wasn’t getting strikes called at the bottom corners of the zone and that he started to overcompensate a bit. The speed was there and I saw him jawwing at the ump at one point, which makes me think it was a bit of a fluke. That being said, you’ve got to be concerned that letting up the long ball is looking more like a pattern than a blip.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Gonzo_The_Great: Hah awesome you were there! Crazy series if you’re a Cubs fan haha.

      I would say Scherzer is still my fav buy low if anyone is selling at under top-10 sp prices. I have a few Nats fans who told me he still looks great overall just getting unlucky. He had a stretch of blah in August I think it was last year, so I think he can still dig outta it

  7. Ghost Ride the WHIP says:
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    JB, should i start Rodon or Conley for a 2 start week?
    Conley has the better match ups v Mil and @Wsh vs. Rodon @Tex and @NYY
    I know Yankees are what they used to be but i feel like Conley is the way to go this week given the ballparks all things being equal.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Ghost Ride the WHIP: Hmmmm. Yeah it’s close for me, I know the matchups aren’t there, but I’m kinda feeling Rodon. Brewers are decent at the plate, so I think they make adjustments vs. Conley and the Nats are good…

      • Ghost Ride the WHIP says:
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        @JB Gilpin:
        If i qualify that I am looking to get the most innings and quality starts ahead of other categories does that change anything?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Ghost Ride the WHIP: Yeahhhh I think that indeed flip flops it. Especially the innings. Rodon and the control makes him prone to shorter outings. That swings it to Conley

  8. Tiger morning Wood says:
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    With all due respect JB, but this Top 100 List just seems all over the map.
    There are some guys that are just way too high. Carlos Rodon, Patrick Corbin, and Michael Pineda to name a few. Rodon is the 26th ranked pitcher? Above guys like Hamels, Matz, and Walker? 10 spots above Quintana lol.
    Also, how are washed up pitchers Verlander and Wainwright above a young up and coming stud like Aaron Sanchez. Wainwright shouldn’t even be ranked let alone #52. 6.30 era, 34 yo, coming off a major injury, no sign of progress to speak of.
    Heck, John Lackey should be ranked higher than Verlander and Wainwright at this point. At least he’s an old fogey performing well.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Tiger morning Wood: “With all due respect, I’m about to shit all over your ranks” Haha.

      I’m still ranking in ROS, I’m not ranking with what we’ve seen so far. Here’s what I just commented on Quintana: “My main concern is he’s shown this caliber of pitching in stretches in both 2014 and 2015, then reverts back to being only decent. I was all about Quintana in 2014 the first time we saw this. His LOB% is really high and HR rate unreal low, and he’s historically struggled against teams in his division. He’s only faced the awful Twins so far, so I’ll buy more and more if he shuts down the Royals and Tigers”

      Hamels I actually wrote something on, so you can check that out.

      Wainwright looked a lot better his last time out, and lord help me, you just made me defend Adam Wainwright, even though I have him outside of the top 50. Check out some other ranks “lol”.

      You’re also being a little too myopic, I’m trying my best to predict what happens from now until October, not backtrack and include what’s happened so far. I believed in Rodon in March, he had one blowup, and has otherwise been OK and still looks good to me.

      • Tiger morning Wood says:
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        @JB Gilpin:
        Fair enough, fair enough…to each their own…

        Thanks for the input..

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Tiger morning Wood: Haha and I was kiddin around, of course a lot of this is fortune telling which no one can do :) Def pick me apart any time, I love the discussion!

  9. kake says:
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    What is that you don’t like about Stroman. I dont think he is great but he certainly deserves to be above guys like Corbin, Rodon, Velasquez, Samardizja. The only knock on him was the strikeouts, and now the strikeouts have come back last two starts.

    He Pitches for a good team that will give him plenty of run support. His stats and peripherals dont show any luck involved either. The only downside I can think of is their division

    Just curious if you see something I am missing.
    Innings Limit? Injury Concern? Second Half Regression?

    Thanks For the list. I love nitpicking it.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @kake: K rate… All about dem Ks. 36 in 50 innings is “OK”, Dodgers 8 Ks was encouraging, but I wanna see a little bit of a longer run. @TB 9 Ks wasn’t too surprising, they strike out a ton. So you’re right on with my concern, and in roto terms, guys who eat into your Ks like that in 10 or 12ers can be overrated. Now in a Pts league, he would shoot up at least 10 spots, love him in a points league.

      Hah, love the nitpicking man! Especially when it can be an actual convo unlike comment above ya haha

      • kake says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        I have him in roto and points league. I liked him in both equally but now I have more love for him in points league because of the strikeouts. Hoping the k’s stay.

        You think he can have a k/9 anywhere close to 8.00 this season? Reasoning?

        I also have Rodon, but I would prefer Stromans consistency and control over Rodon’s upside. I just cant fathom how Rodon can finish above Stroman.

        Rich Hill is still massively underrated. This guy is so overlooked because of his age but unless he gets injured, he is going to put up top 25 production.

        I thought it is funny how most people complain about a player ranked too low and rarely a player ranked too high.
        Thanks for the list again mate.

        • rick carmichael says:
          (link)

          @kake:

          Stroman has also left 8 runners on that their crappy bullpen has allowed in… era would be way lower if they had more competence in the 7th/8th

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @kake: @rick carmichael: Anywhere close to 8? Oh definitely, I love his stuff, but if I had to guess right now I would say barely over 7. Although over 8 isn’t out of the range of possibilities to me at the least.

            All about the Ks, Rodon’s final 2 months last year were dominant, I still think he has that in him.

            Well, as mentioned a few times, these are ROS. So that “if he gets injured” and “age” factor in a ton. I mentioned last week I would definitely own him in all leagues, no questions asked, but from this point forward it’s risky.

            Hah that’s the fun of ranks!

            Rick – I’m not really factoring in ERA too much, just worried about the low Ks hurting you in Roto

  10. Regan says:
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    Where is my big fat Bartolo Colon? He’s always nails the first half of the year before he turns into a pumpkin. I’d rather have him that a lot of the guys on this list. Still very concerned with Felix and Kuetchel.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Regan: Haha so much love for Colon! Well remember these are ROS ranks which I treat as if you’re locked into playing that guy every start until October. So I’m factoring in the pumpkin-ness and leaving him out haha

  11. Hot Rod

    Jimmy Bond says:
    (link)

    No love for Colon? He’s been having an awesome season so far. Way better than McHugh so he should at least rank 77th! :)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jimmy Bond: The Colon love is strong! I think McHugh has more K upside and as mentioned above, these are for ROS so I’m factoring in a tough finish for Colon, as he usually does. I’d have no issue owning Colon over McHugh short term

    • Ross Watson says:
      (link)

      @Jimmy Bond:

      Bartolo tops my list of pitchers that look like 80’s WWF wrestlers with nicknames of heavy machinery or power tools

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Ross Watson: Hahaha, his sig move would be “the belly flop”

  12. Nation says:
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    JB, love your work, but how in the world do you have Quintana so low? And Rodon 14 spots above Quintana? Looking at your list i’d have him slotted easily at 21/22 and personally would have him over FHer. Wheres the love?!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Nation: Well I still don’t think much has dramatically changed, so in a ROS sense, I think from this point forward we’ll see some regression. My main concern is he’s shown this caliber of pitching in stretches in both 2014 and 2015, then reverts back to being only decent. I was all about Quintana in 2014 the first time we saw this. His LOB% is really high and HR rate unreal low, and he’s historically struggled against teams in his division. He’s only faced the awful Twins so far, so I’ll buy more and more if he shuts down the Royals and Tigers

  13. Five-On-One says:
    (link)

    Next start only, Karns (v LAA, SON $4.1), Wood (vSTL, SON $8.0) or Berrios (@CLE, SON -$6.3)?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Five-On-One: Gimme Karns, I liked him as a deeper sleeper coming in, was bumpy outta the gate but looks pretty good right now. I just don’t trust Wood yet

      • Five-On-One says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Thanks. From your rankings, I am guessing that Rodon (@HOU, SON $5.4) and Walker (@BAL, SON $3.0) are both above them all.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Five-On-One: Yup! Walker gives me a smidge of pause though, just because he left the last start early

  14. WillisReid says:
    (link)

    Nice to see Salazar Smyly and Matz moving up.

    Any thoughts on my stream options this week…. Eikhoff @ATL Rich Hill @Tampa or just roll with Colon again this week @ LAD?

    • WillisReid says:
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      I don’t care about chasing W’s so the SON isn’t always helpful.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @WillisReid: Yessir! I def know when I make mistakes, and Matz is looking like one. I liked Salazar the whole way though, but he looks locked in as we thought. Of those, I think I am sticking with Hill

  15. Jedimasters says:
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    JB I always pencil in my Monday afternoon to be ready to read your top 100 article. I’m in a 10 team Yahoo points league where pitchers rule. Example, 50 points per win.

    Tanner Roark was dropped in our league. I just stashed Tyler Glasnow. I’m currently flipping between 1st place and 2nd place and not in a panic. Should I drop any of these pitchers for Roark?

    Rodon
    J. Ross (I know you’re going to say keep him, I’ve become a Ross fan because of you)
    Glasnow

    Here are my starters: Price, Kluber, Syndergaard, Matz and Darvish (Eagerly waiting).

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jedimasters: Thanks man, really appreciate it! Holy crap! Pitchers are Gods in that league! Whewwww, that’s some sexy hurlers right there! Roark on such a great NL team with that wins caveat, I think I would have to own him over Glasnow right now. But I don’t think it’s a big worry either way with those aces, helmed by JOE MOTHERF ROSS! What a beast that Joe Ross

  16. Jedimasters says:
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    JB I’ve been meaning to also ask you about Steve Wright. Like Grey, I can’t figure out how to project a knuckleballer. I see you have him at 99. Yet he’s been performing like a top 20. Thoughts? Worth a pickup in a 10 team league? 12 team league? 14 team league?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jedimasters: I’d say flier in a 14er, streamer (only pick up in day of) in 12er, and not touching in 10er. I just dunno if I can buy a knuckleballer after Dickey had only one crazy good year.

  17. Great White North says:
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    I have streamed the Knuckleballer Comedian (Wright) for a few starts, have a strong gut feeling he may be the real deal, and want to roster him for a while in an RCL. Is this dumb? I already have Archer, Liriano, Cueto, Ross, and Ordozzi.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Great White North: Hah, yeah he’s been amazing, no question! I def wouldn’t say “dumb”, but if his next few starts are bad, I’m cutting right away. Or if there’s like a closer who becomes available or a crazy good bat, I wouldn’t hesitate to lose him

  18. Joe says:
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    Any chance you can break down a Maeda start???? What if I say how wrong you are, that he’s a top ten pitcher, and you don’t know anything. Will that help?

    What are your thoughts on giving my Hamels and Joc Pederson for Justin Upton and Matt Duffy? It’s not the Hamels part that bothers me as much as Pederson. I feel like that’s selling him short if he ever gets moved up in the lineup. He seems to be hitting well enough.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Joe: Hahahaha, aight he’ll be on my short list for next week :)

      Do it immediately! As mentioned above, I’m pretty worried on Hamels and Upton is by far best in deal for me. I can get not wanting to lose Joc, but I’m still worried a horrible cold streak could come any time

  19. Ciwa says:
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    16 team keeper league. One team dropped Iglesias,i’d like to pick him from the waiver and drop Manaea.What do you think?
    Here are my SP
    Kluber
    Strasburg
    Samar
    Hammel
    Manaea

    • Ciwa says:
      (link)

      @Ciwa:
      Oh,i forgot one question: better Iglesias or Mccullers? I like more the first one but i’d be glad to hear your opinion

      Thanks from Italy,
      Ciwa

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Ciwa: Mannnn, those are two really good pitchers for a keeper to be avail! I think I would rank em Iglesias, Manaea, McCullers in a keeper, so yeah I would nab Iglesias as long as you can afford to stash and don’t need the production. Oh awesome, thanks for reading all the way overseas!

        • Ciwa says:
          (link)

          @JB Gilpin:
          It’s a pleasure,trust me. You guys do a fantastic job.
          I’m a bit surprised you rank Manaea ahead Mccul. In our league(and yes,we are all Italian!) we have 2 DL stints so I can use the empty one(damned d’arnaud) for Iglesias and then I can put a claim for another one. Our 6 categories for pitchers are ERA-K/9-H/9-BB/9-QS-SV,so i don’t need a lot of production. I can choose (at the moment they are FA) between Kennedy-Mccul-Corbin-Roark and re-taking Manaea or stashing one between Urias and Snell(I love Alex Reyes but with the suspension i really do not know when he could call up) and wait. I’m pretty undecided,what would you do?

          Thanks and sorry for the lenght of the message.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @Ciwa: Appreciate it, we try! Well I’m thinking more in a keeper context, I think Manaea has more upside. And short term he’s pitching now. I wasn’t really factoring in DL though, I do like the idea of claiming McCullers instead just to have an extra roster spot. Oh man, Corbin should be owned. Damn, Reyes and Urias and Snell too! So many options! I would say nab McCullers, then add Corbin if you need help now, if thinking of long-term stashing hold onto Urias who might give you good RP innings this year. No worries, not long at all compared to others!

            • Ciwa says:
              (link)

              @JB Gilpin:
              I’m sorry(again) maybe I can’t explain.I put a claim for Iglesias over McCullers,so I probably nab him and than I’ll decide between Corbin and Urias.
              Thanks for all JB,really.
              I’m waiting for your next pitcher profile ;)

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
                (link)

                @Ciwa: OH cool, yeah I think I followed! Def with ya there, get Iglesias with that claim then I would prob nab Corbin. Any time!

  20. Chris says:
    (link)

    Hey JB,

    should i look to move SP Price?
    One target can be Quintana?

    Thanks,
    Chris

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Nooooooooo no no no, don’t move Price right now, his value is at an absolute floor while Quintana as high as it’ll ever be. Hold Price

  21. Christian Herman says:
    (link)

    Reed from Houston or Carlos Santana 12 team H2H standard

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Christian Herman: I’m no Santana fan, but I would prob hold onto him rather than stash Reed

  22. Swfcdan says:
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    Agree with you, Nola is good but don’t think he’s the next to enter acedom, very tough to be if you are an average velo thrower.

    Glad to see you aren’t too down on Pineda! Reason being I sent Fielder for him and a prospect (W Adames) in my dynasty. Fielder has looked horrendous with garbage peripherals and feel this may well be his time to fall off a cliff (hope no-ones down below!), don’t need him anyway so he’s someone else’s big (fat) problem now ha

    Anyway what’s your thoughts on Pineda? Velocity is actually up this year averaging just under 94mph, Eno Sarris at Fangraphs thinks it’s missed fastball location and is fixable. Don’t expect much more than mid3 ERA’s but with a K and inning and hopefully good WHIP is pretty decent in a H2H.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Swfcdan: Yeah, it’s tough I feel like unless you have a crazy good change-up. Like, Shaun Marcum in his peak year or two was great. Fiers at times. But it’s tough to get through games without your A stuff, as Nola showed.

      I def think Pineda can turn this around, it’s all about the long balls. Too many homers right now, but good k:bb. Has control. just still a little off on his command. Def still has upside

      • Swfcdan says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Good because Grey was talking about dropping him last week, glad some people are keeping the faith! I have him in a 16er anyway so he’s far better than the WW scrubs.

        And so glad you persuaded me to do the Shelby for Joe “boss” Ross a week into the season, how good a trade is that looking now!! Wouldn’t have had the guts to do it without your pp on him, so big thanks there man. And it’s a dynasty, Ross could be great for years to come!

        Also to let you know my teams playoff football/soccer match (Sheffield Wednesday vs Brighton) is on this friday evening here, it’s essentially the semi-final stage, so maybe you could catch a bit of it on a stream!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Swfcdan: Yeah it’s totally in context, in RCLs where you’re constantly streaming (12 team leagues), I would def be cutting him.

          Oh nice, yeah that swap was killer! Joe Ross is my hero. Oh man, yeah even better in a dyno!

          I’ll definitely try to find it! Be Friday afternoon for me, hopefully I can find it and watch some at work :)

  23. greg says:
    (link)

    So … I have Madbum, Matz, Stroman, SGray, Rodon, JRoss, JOdorozzi, KGausman, VV, and soon Darvish. 14 team h2h 5×5 league.

    I think I can afford to stash Glasnow. Who would you drop for him, if anyone? If he were called up today, where would you have him ranked?

    And who would you drop for Darvish? Schoop, Kang, or Segura? Or hold and drop an aforementioned pitcher?

    Finally, what’s up with Sonny Gray? He is hurting me. ….!

    I traded Arenado, SCastro, K HENDRICKS for Madbum, Franco, and Rodon, but I kinda regret it now! Expected more out of Franco. But this makes me hesitant to give up on Rodon…his control is improved, but he’s been pedestrian at best. …you dropped him in your rankings. Tell me he’ll be fine. ..! Lol

    Thanks, great job as always. By th(e way, I had Nola, too, but dropped him!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @greg: He’d be top 40 probably if called up today, maybe even higher. He’s soooooooo good. Well reading ahead. first priority is getting Darvish if avail, and dropping Schoop. Prob losing Odorizzi to stash Glasnow if you can afford the stash. Hah yeah I never was a huge Gray guy, had low BABIPs and never great K:BBs. He should be a little better though.

      It’ll be fine with Rodon! He’s only down a smidge, I still think a run of ace-like numbers could be ahead. Ack yeah sorry if I suggested losing Nola, but I think more starts like this last one are ahead!

      • greg says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: you didn’t. I just didn’t have room! ;)

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @greg: Whew, dodged that bullet!

  24. Rags says:
    (link)

    You’d take Junior Guerra over Rea, Straily or Adleman?

    I’ve got Chase Anderson in an NL-only roto league with no benches (so you get every start).

    Dropping the disaster that was Cotham for one of these guys, but I’m trying decide if I should drop Anderson also or hold and hope he stops throwing batting practice.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Rags: Yup! Rea is close, he’s on my list of just out. Adelman?! Yeah no way. And Straily scares me. Guerra’s stuff is nasty! 95 with a great split-change. Still harnassing it though as he’s a pitcher convert.

      Anderson doesn’t play well in Miller at all. Low velo and if the change-up isn’t perfect, he gets murdered. I would take Guerra and Rea

  25. Eric B says:
    (link)

    I’ve been waiting all day for this post sol let’s get to running out of room already lol. In our last exchange I was telling you I had been offered Melancon for Gausman and McGee. I tried to counter Berrios and McGee, he declined and then countered with Vizcaino and Gausman. I accepted…I didnt want to move Gausman man but that’s a decent upgrade at closer…dontcha think?

    Now a week or so ago another guy wanted my Tolleson for his Shark but I declined. What do you think of that trade now? Furthermore that same guy owns Parra. So couple of questions…should I trade Tolleson or McGee? He prefers Tolleson, I want to keep whichever closer you think is better ROS. 2nd should I targer Shark since I lost Gausman or should I offer (whichever closer we think is the best to give up) for Parra and Pomeranz? Do you like both deals, or one better than the other? Roster is below:

    ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS and 4 keepers per season

    C Molina
    1B Cabrera
    2B Daniel Murphy
    3B Seager
    SS A. Russell
    OF Stanton
    OF Springer
    OF Polanco
    UTIL OF Burns
    UTIL OF/DH Sano
    Bench 2B/SS Castro
    DL Pollock

    SP Salazar
    SP Corbin
    RP Kimbrel
    RP Melancon
    P T. Walker
    P Odorizzi
    P C.Rodon
    P Empty
    Bench SP Berrios
    Bench SP Kennedy
    Bench RP McGee
    Bench RP Tolleson
    DL SP E-Rod

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Eric B: Haha what’s up man?! Oh yeah that’s a solid move. One of your last SP and a low tier closer for a best closer. I like! Hmmm I’d prob lean McGee, although Tolleson should get more save opps. Tough one.

      Hmmmm, I think I would just get Shark I think… They’re both close. Tolleson for Shark seems solid. Parra seems OK… I just don’t think Pomeranz is even a must-hold in that league. I would want something better to like that one.

      • Eric B says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the feedback JB, always appreciate your take! I’m gonna see if he will do Shark for Tolleson or McGee. If he’d rather have mcGee I can always use a free spot to add Dyson as the handcuff. And if Erod proves as good as he was thought to be pre-season then I can drop Berrios to promote him. If he declines I have 4 closers and hopefully Erod gives my staff a boost to offset losing Gausman.

        • Eric B says:
          (link)

          @Eric B: What would you think if I could swing Wacha and Parra for one of the aforementioned closers and Berrios?

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @Eric B: As always, any time! Yeah it’s a really even trade and not one that I think would be too impactful either way, so if he passes I would look at other options.

            Ohhhhh I like that idea. I’m not a huge Wacha guy, but def like him over Berrios and I do like Parra as a fit for ya, I like that idea!

          • Eric B says:
            (link)

            @Eric B: Ok apologies in advance for several questions before you can respond lol. Here’s the summary JB I’m in 3rd but now trailing by 13 Rs, 17 HR’s, 31 HR’s and 10 SB’s. I hear E-rods gonna be delayed by a week or so, so I still have an open spot. after the Viz and Gausman for Melancon trade.

            Best available on the wire are the streaky K. Davis, Ozuna whos matching K.Davis’ numbers with a better OBP, SS K.Marte who is finally heating up, SS Villar (for the speed) or J. Bour because I have no back up at 1st. I feel like my roster should be producing better O numbers but isnt so I’d be looking for the best long term fit ROS.

            I can add one of the above players or handcuff Tolleson with Dyson(whos also on the wire) to ensure I dont lose a closer. Or finally I can try to trade Tolleson(instead of McGee)which elimates the need for Dyson and get an arm like say Shark and then add one of the aforementioned players. Love to hear your thoughts.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @Eric B: I kinda like Villar of that mix. He have 3B elig too? I know he does in Yahoo… But I like his ability to mix and match and he’s swinging a good bat right now. Won’t help HR, but R and SB will get a big boost.

              I’d def add a bat, and I like Villar since he’ll help plug holes at MI/UTIL when you need him. Still good with Tolleson for Shark if he’ll take it

              • Eric B says:
                (link)

                @JB Gilpin: Ok so he just signed Cingini and doesnt seem interested in Tolleson now(last nights outing by Tolleson didnt help me lol). And while we were discussing that someone nabbed Villar. When Im patient, I miss out, when Im quick to react whoever I sign goes into a slump lmao.

                Appreciate you getting back with me so quickly, looks like Im back to handcuff of Dyson, K.Davis, Ozuna or K. Marte. I could also still handcuff Dyson and if Berrios disappoints add one of those bats or vice versa…thoughts?

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
                  (link)

                  @Eric B: Damn, someone in your league is scouting these comments! Haha,

                  I wouldn’t worry too much about a handcuff with all these options available. I guess I would take Davis and hope he gets hot again

                  • Eric B says:
                    (link)

                    @JB Gilpin: You’re probably right…bastards lol. Thanks for the advice, Ill let ya know how it goes.

                    • Eric B says:
                      (link)

                      @Eric B: Guess what we are about to be out of? “Room”…So whats your take on Berrios? Ive been holding him, he looked good and then gave up back to back jacks, while Gausman, who i just traded definitely looked like the better SP despite similar lines.I miss Gausman already lol. Would you hold Berrios(since I just lost Gausman)? Any of these waiver wire guys got a chance at being more than streamers/worth adding: Chen, Severino, Fiers, McHugh, Nicasio? Or is my roster better off adding the bat(K.Davis/Ozuna/K.Marte )?

                      Side note no one wants Tolleson or McGee, gonna have to hope they just start pitching better. But with my luck someone will snag Dyson, Tolleson will get demoted and Ill lose a closer for zilch lol.

                      Thanks as always looking forward to your take.

  26. greg says:
    (link)

    Oh, and when Darvish comes off DL, rank stashes: Wheeler, Cobb or Bailey. ..thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @greg: Ugh. I don’t like any. Prob like them in that order, Bailey with the setback is no bueno

  27. Fister Furbush says:
    (link)

    Nice write up JB. I’m glad you selected Nola as your headline. He’s been exciting and consistent this year in Philly. Quick question,

    Is Jose Abreu for Madison Bumgarner a fair trade for both sides? The trade is between two really good teams, so it’s not necessarily for need. It’s more for want

    I’m kinda buying low on BumG and hiping he could be my number two, behind Sale and Sybdergaard. My other first baseman is Pujols…which I’m fine with putting him out there for his random 30 point weeks.

    Thanks ahead of time man.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Fister Furbush: Thanks man! Yeah he was one of the most commented on last week, maybe Rodon or Quintana for next week, or Maeda as someone asked above.

      Ummmm, I guess it’s “fair”, I would def take Abreu though all things equal. Oh in a Pts league! Yeah it’s dead even in Pts, might even lean Bumgarner. With Pujols on your squad, it fits well. Any time!

  28. Mickey Maloney says:
    (link)

    Man it seems like people have Pineda and Eovaldi all over the place this week. I can’t trust either.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Mickey Maloney: Oh for sure, I mean right now I have a low confidence level for both, but I think Pineda has upside to go on a long run that Eovaldi doesn’t really

  29. Say no to Steven! says:
    (link)

    JB,

    Thanks for the write up. What metrics are you looking at for Porcello?

    his xfip is at 3.20 which is great ground ball at 49% babip a little low I guess. Just wondering how you are gauging so I can learn a bit from the pros :)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Say no to Steven!: Thanks for reading! So I’m starting to not like FIP or xFIP as much unless it’s like a half season or so of a sample. If you are striking guys out and not walking many, no matter what is happening when hitters hit the ball, your FIP and xFIP are gonna be low. Some guys have good k:bb but lack command and get crushed. Pineda is a great example. His xFIP is 3.75, because you replace his HR with the league-wide HR rate. But if he misses in the zone, it’s hittable.

      Anyway, for Porcello, yeah .242 BABIP is crazy low and 85.4% LOB is really high. Given he’s not walking many guys (so strand rate means a little less), but it’s still high. Also he’s had a line drive rate of over 21% the past 4 years, and it’s at 15.5% right now. So that’s kinda doubling down on the low BABIP

  30. Malicious Phenoms says:
    (link)

    Great stuff as always JB!

    Start Matt Moore against F-Her tonight in the great North west?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Malicious Phenoms: Thanks man! Yeah I would probably roll the dice on Moore, sorry if I was too late!

  31. Wacha wacha says:
    (link)

    I really need to trade some of my pitching for a hitter in my 10 team h2h. Would you trade Salazar or price for cespedes or would I be giving up too much?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Wacha wacha: Man that’s a tough one. I think either would be fine given the need. It’s just deciding which one with Price so low in value and Salazar so high. I think it’d still be Salazar that I’d give up, but it’s a tough call

  32. The Thumb says:
    (link)

    Would you trade Noah or Stras for Abreu? Offense is a little weak due to slow starts from Upton, HanRam, Puig, Longoria.

    My staff is Noah, Stras, Salazar, Matz, Colon, Nola (Giolito stashed)

    Also should I drop Giolito to stash Glasnow instead? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @The Thumb: Yeah you have nice pitchers, I think it fits. Could you try to see if Salazar works? Haha. Damn, I guess I’m giving up Strasburg, but that’s a tough call. And yup, def stash Glasnow!

  33. PED Inc says:
    (link)

    I love this column JB, I don’t know how many times I start hitting refresh on Monday’s waiting for this! Your pitcher profiles are fantastic, I only wish there were more.

    On Nola, this was the fourth game of his I got to watch and without a doubt was his most inconsistent and mediocre. His start against the Cardinals last week was a thing of beauty! I’m one hundred percent with you though on not wanting to like him, I rostered him weeks ago for a spot start in my streaming slot and I haven’t been able to remove him from it yet as bad as I want to!

    My staff in a 10 team H2H redraft currently is this:
    Syndergard
    Archer
    Kzar
    Stroman
    Walker
    Smyly
    Matz
    Quintana
    Nola
    Aaron Sanchez

    I would really like to unload one of these to pick up Glasnow before he his snagged but I can’t find a good enough reason to pull the trigger. I believe Aaron is the one to go but that RP/SP eligibility is so damn sweet!
    Quintana has been pure gold for me this year so that is the only one of your rankings of my pitchers that I respectively disagree with, any chance we can get a profile on him sometime??

    Would you drop any of these pitchers to pick up Glasnow? I hate to waste a roster spot if he doesn’t get the call up till after the middle of June but damn he looks good and pitching for a great team with one hell of a pitching coach too, thanks for the help buddy and I defintely enjoy your column. Keep it up!

    • PED Inc says:
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      @PED Inc: Also please give me your input on finishing out my rotation for this week…
      Which 3 would you go with

      Syndergard @ LAD
      Quintana @ NYY
      Kzar @ Houston
      Archer @ SEA
      Nola @ Cincy
      Stroman @ SF
      Walker vs. TB

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @PED Inc: Thanks so much man! Oh man, if Razzball gets some more funding and I’m full time, don’t you worry, I’ll be doing a ton of these!

        Hah yeah, I mean we talk about samples all the time, well I watch a full start and dissect it, yet it’s the only sample of his starts I’ve seen! Why baseball is awesome, just so many variables…

        H2H weekly lock? Bc yeah losing SP/RP is sooooo tough. But yeah if you can afford to stash, I would swap him for Glasnow. Yeah thinking next week will be Quintana or Maeda, both guys I have ranked low.

        Damn sorry if I missed your window but I would go Syn, Salazar and Archer.

  34. Wudaben says:
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    Glasnow looks great but I don’t see how does he get the call first over Taillon for a rotation spot.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Wudaben: Why not? I mean, i’m not steadfast either way, but there was talk of giving Glasnow a few Sept innings last year and Taillon hasn’t pitched in 3 years. Why push him and stress him out for Major League innings right away? Plus, Glasnow is better

  35. Scott says:
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    Would you stream Happ @SF?

    NL bats, pitchers park, right?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scott: Uggghhh, SF is sneaky with their contact. Happ doesn’t “rely” on contact, but I wouldn’t expect too many Ks. Risky, but if you’re below your starts/innings cap I prob would play him

  36. Luis says:
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    Think Severino is a must own going forward in a 12 team roto league? I just picked him up. I liked how he looked in his last start against BOS, except for the HR’s. That’s his bugaboo though, right? His other numbers look decent. Would you take Desclafani over him? He’s available too.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Luis: Nah, def not must own. I almost put this in the article, but he’s starting to remind me of Rubby De La Rosa right now. Great looking stuff, but lefties can pick it up really well. I’d keep streaming the spot rather than hold Severino or DeSclafani

  37. Mike says:
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    Teixeira or Khris Davis ROS? 5×5 h2h league

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: I’ll take Khris Davis

  38. BucLover says:
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    JB,,,Is there a clear cut winner for this trade that was proposed for me? I’m giving Archer and company. Roto, 7×7 (OBP, XBH, QS, K/9).
    Syndergaard, JD Martinez, Rasmus, Cain for Archer, Frazier, Castellanos, Trumbo
    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @BucLover: Whewwwwwwww big trade! Yeah I like your side a lot more :) Synd>Archer, JD Martinez probably>Frazier, and I’m iffy on Rasmus but def would take Cain over the other guys you gave up. I like it!

  39. Awesome Auger says:
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    Hey JB, thoughts on Jon Gray? Obviously Coors starts are always questionable but he looks like he’s starting to figure things out.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Awesome Auger: His stuff is ELECTRIC! Was really impressed with a few innings v SD I watched a few starts ago. But control looks like it’s an issue too, on top of Coors. I’d def stream him on the road, but it’s tough to rank any COL guy at all in ROS terms, which I rank to mean “you have to start him every time from here to October”

  40. jal179 says:
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    Corbin. I’m curious why so high on him especially given his home park factor?

    I’ve got Erod stashed and am also excited for his return–reminds me of a very tanned Cliff Lee!

    Currently debating between dropping Colon, Steven Wright (I’m holding him until the meltdown) and Corbin once ERod back.

    Any advanced stats to support Corbin’s rank?

    Lastly, better stash Blake Snell or Trea Turner? I’m struggling at SS with Suarez. Who gets the call first Snell or Turner?

    Your top 100 is my favorite of all on Razzball. Thanks again.

    • jal179 says:
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      @jal179:

      And add Eickhoff to that list of potential drops.

      My staff is anchored by Max, Thor, Carrasco (DL), Matz, Maeda, Chapman, Rondon, Colombe, Boxberger (DL)

      I think my bats need more help from Turner than Snell.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @jal179: I liked him coming into the year, but he’s indeed been falling. Still really like his stuff, and hoping velo can go up a little more. Haha yeah I’m hopign the rumor of the Erod cutter is true! Well Corbin has been a little unlucky with homers and I think Ks will come back. He has a big slider to do that. I’d prob lose Colon, even before Eickhoff.

        Hmmm, prob would stash Turner, I’m 50/50 on who would get call first, but I would always stash the bat. And yeah sounds like your team construct agrees.

        Thanks so much man, always glad to hear the awesome feedback on these! Def a labor of love every Sunday for me haha

  41. greg says:
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    @JB Gilpin:

    I cut Sonny Gray for Neris. Three straight starts at 7 runs? Screw it. I may regret it but I don’t carre. It felt good. Something must be wrong with him. I’ve had enough.

    • jal179 says:
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      @greg:

      Wow. That a boy. Ballsy call but I like it. I did the same with Ian Desmond 2 weeks in. Fail by me but adds to the fun of trying to rebuild!

      • greg says:
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        @jal179: Fail for now. I don’t necessarily believe Desmond won’t regress again…..

        Besides, I still have: Bum, Matz, JRoss, Stroman, Rodon, Velasquez, Gausman, Darvish, Glasnow….I’ll be fine. And this is a FOURTEEN team league…..

        But last year, when they were platooning Pollock early on and he was muddling? I …. got frustrated and cut him. And played the team that snagged him in the finals.

        Somehow, I still won the league. Thank you Stephen Piscotty and one ugly win by late add Derek Holland!

        • greg says:
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          @greg: Wait a second….someone just dropped Corey Dickerson…..Coors or no, he’s NOT a .196 hitter, and he’s got speed. And already 6 jacks outside of Coors. I got him on a speculative add. He homered tonight, too. LOL.

          Thoughts?

          • jal179 says:
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            @greg:

            CDick, pickup Dick. Good play but i have no clue where his AVG will settle out.

        • jal179 says:
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          @greg:

          Nice. Excellent staff for a 14 teamer.

          Agree on Desmond– hate his hack at it approach.

          I also wired Pollock last year but lost in the finals.

          My start has been shart this year with Goldy, Max and Crush Davis coming out slow.

          • greg says:
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            @jal179: Seems we both have quick triggers….every player I ever drop is always, every year, scooped right up…..this year: Nola, KRod, Piscotty, LForsythe, well, Berrios hasn’t been yet…

            I’d rather have Piscotty over Dickerson, but ho hum, I wanted to spec on Berrios, so no roon, besides, it’s not like my lineup sucks, right? C: Realmuto, 1B: Freeman, 2B: Segura (homered tonight) SS: Kang, 3B: Franco, OF: Betts, CarGo, JUpton, Sano, Dickerson…..didn’t mention I also have Rosenthal, Chapman and Boxberger at CL. I think I’ll be in the mix come playoffs….

            • jal179 says:
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              @greg:

              Patience is not my strength. Make enough moves eventually you’ll be wrong but as long as one nabs a few gems to complete a decent draft

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @greg: @jal179: Haha the quick trigger gang! Tough for me to give an answer on Gray as I was fervently avoiding. Ya know what? I don’t mind it! I think he’s meh at best.

                My fav leagues are keepers, but in redraft I’m maybe not quite to you guys’ trigger levels, but I do move on quickly!

  42. Adam says:
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    Justin upton is killing me
    Would u drop him for Rasmus, Dickerson, caste llanos?
    Head to head league
    Thx

    • jal179 says:
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      @Adam:

      No. Patience. Though he may not return his ADP.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Adam: @jal179: Yeah, in the above chain of comments, jal even said he’s a quick trigger fingerer! Haha, that sounded weird. Def hold Upton. He’s streaky and adjusting to a new league/pitchers, he should be better soon

  43. Manley Ramirez says:
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    Great stuff! Joe Ross is really sticking it to Grey and the Streamonator! Why does streamonator hate him?

    Isn’t it time to move Corbin down though? A bit ridic sandwiched in there between Stroman and Quintanna.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Manley Ramirez: Thanks man! No idea why SoN hates him, I’m guessing Grey hacked the system haha.

      I still think Corbin can be near an 8 K rate, which would mean a 9 k rate ROS. Maybe that’s too bullish, but I still think he has that ability and upside from here, Quintana I think has been so consistent in 3.20ish ERAs that I see regression coming from this point on

  44. scott steelers says:
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    Current rotation is Scherzer, Smyly, Nola, C.Martinez, Berrios, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, Kennedy, Corbin. Would you trade Nola or Carlos Martinez for Castellanos as a 21st rd keeper? Current 3rd situation is sano and villar. Could slide villar to SS whole Tulo is sucking and sano to OF while j upton is sucking. Do it or nah? And if so. Which SP?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @scott steelers: Nahhhhhh I’m probably passing on both pitchers. I’m not a huge Castellanos guy, his BABIP is out of control right now. If you felt stronger on him I would do Nola but I def wouldn’t do C-Mart

  45. Jordan Wolfhope says:
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    This is a 10 team 5×5 h2h league. Had a great draft and have pulled off a lot of trades is how my team is stacked at pitching. Feel like my team is good enough to go with only 1 stream spit until my prospects get called up or am I wasting too many spors having turner, glassnow, and aj reed? Do you think reed outpreforms prince? Do u think turner outpreforms schoop? Also id glassnow going to be a top 30 pitcher or so.l? Any other input I would really appriciate. This site is the reason my team looks the way it does. Please help me out. Thanks to everyone who writes ablnd comments on this site, by far the best one out there

    C (empty)
    1B Paul Goldschimdt
    2B Jonathan Schoop
    3B Maikel Franco
    SS Corey Seager
    2B/SS Brian Dozier
    1B/3B Eric Hosmer
    OF George Springer
    OF Starling Marte
    OF Ryan Braun
    OF Christian Yelich
    OF Marcell Ozuna
    UTIL Prince Fielder
    Bench AJ Reed
    Bench Trea Turner

    P Clayton Kershaw
    P Chris Sale
    P Max Scherzer
    P Jose Fernandez
    P Chris Archer
    P Roberto Osuna
    P Luke Gregerson
    P Arodys Vizcaino
    P Santiago Casilla
    P (stream spot)
    Bench Tyler Glasnow
    DL Tyson Ross

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jordan Wolfhope: Well it’s tough to make a call on the prospects in ROS terms just because we just don’t know their callup dates. I would lean on Prince over Reed still. Turner vs. Schoop is tough for so many reasons. Turner for speed and avg vs. Schoop for power. If Turner was called up tomo I would prob take Turner. Def think Glasnow can be a top-30ish guy once he’s up. Love that stash.

      I think as long as you’re staying strong and don’t need the help from your bench that much, keep stashing these good prospects! Easy to see why you’re doing so well, although I do think you could get contributions from catcher, and since you have such a good AVG team, I would stream that spot at the least instead of P. Or think about losing a prospect, of which would prob be Reed.

      And appreciate that man, we got the best commenters out there!

  46. We're Out Of Room says:
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    Ok JB, we ran out of room earlier. So I made a few changes since my last post. After waning interest in McGee and Tolleson I’ve had to accept that I’ll have to roll with my current closers and won’t be able to upgrade my staff like I had hoped…at least for now.

    I’m still curious about your take on Berrios, but I ended up dropping him and streaming Chen in his spot today. Not sure if he’s an upgrade/keeper over Berrios or not. What says you? The only SP’s available of any name recognition are/were Chen, Severino, Eickhoff, McHugh,Nicasio and Fiers.Would you prefer Berrios if he passes through waivers, one of the names above or just stream the spot?

    As for my open spot I added Ozuna over K.Davis or K.Marte…so he’ll probably go ice cold now lol. Only other name of note that has recently been dropped is E.Suarez who is 3B/SS eligible in ESPN.

    ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS daily moves and 4 keepers per season

    C Molina
    1B Cabrera
    2B Daniel Murphy
    3B Seager
    SS A. Russell
    OF Stanton
    OF Springer
    OF Polanco
    UTIL OF Burns
    UTIL OF/DH Sano
    Bench 2B/SS Castro
    Bench OF Ozuna
    DL Pollock

    SP Salazar
    SP Corbin
    RP Kimbrel
    RP Melancon
    P T. Walker
    P Odorizzi
    P C.Rodon
    P Chen
    Bench SP Kennedy
    Bench RP McGee
    Bench RP Tolleson
    DL SP E-Rod

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @We’re Out Of Room: Hah sorry I was a little slow there! Love the new commenter name!

      Well McGee I would still feel pretty good about. He’s been solid minus one blowup this year. Very happy I got him in perts RCL. Oh nice on Chen, what a stream!!!! Yeah I think I would just hold Chen after that, I liked him coming into the yr too. I’d just stay with him, wasn’t it 5 keepers for your league? I don’t think Berrios or upside of Severino is ever coming close to a keeper then, especially for 2017.

      Mannnnnn Eugenio has cooled off! I like Ozuna for now to filter in when you can. Noice!

      • We're Out Of Room says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks buddy. Figured this commenter name was far more appropriate. Plus as razzball grows I need to try to conceal my identity as much as possible from my league mates lol.

        Yes Chen was a heck of a stream, especially with our league utilizing QS over Ws because neither Salazar, or Walker helped me out yesterday, which hurt because they both looked so darn good for stretches.

        Think I’ll definitely hold Chen for now, especiually until ERod makes his debut. Ozuna didnt do too much for me last night but he’s been consistently scoring runs, hitting for avg. with a few HRs and RBIs sprinkled in here or there. The only thing I struggle with is having more than one bench bat, I almost prefer to be arm heavy, because I always guess wrong. For instance I sat Sano yesterday for Ozuna and he hits a HR lol. May ride Ozuna for now and see what happens though, too much of my power has underperformed thus far. Thanks as always.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @We’re Out Of Room: Yeah like I mentioned before, sounds like your league mates mighta been scouting you out on here!

          Ugh yeah on Salazar and Walker, but both should be fine, at least you got a boatload of Ks.

          Yup Anderson pitched decent enough yesterday, I think Ozuna can be useful when you play him. But agree, I usually have more pitchers too, but nice to have some fill-ins and Ozuna is an easy cut for the next hot thing hah

          • We're Out Of Room says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Happy Friday the 13th JB. Quick question on strategy, I know you mentioned earlier that I didnt really need to worry about handcuffs in my league(specifically talking Dyson with Tolleson). I added Chen and Ozuna this week. You recommended holding Chen after having lost Gausman in the Melancon trade. But I’m giving some thought to dropping Ozuna(even though he’s hot and my O is not) to add Dyson.

            My thinking is this, if I add Dyson it gives me the ability to move McGee and ensures I keep 3 closers if Tolleson is eventually replaced. The guy that has been back and forth about Tolleson or McGee currently has Cingrani, Colome, Osuna and Gregorson as his closers. Cingrani kinda sucks imo, Colome will be replaced by Boxberger pretty soon, so i feel like he’ll eventually warm back up to the idea. He has Shark and Parra so maybe there’d be a deal there if Cingrani struggles and Colme gets replaced. Thoughts on that strategy?

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @We’re Out Of Room: Ominous day! True story – knocked out half a tooth on fri 13th back in middle school, ugh. Anyway, yeah I kinda see Ozuna not doing too much re-looking at it. Dyson might be a good temp stash if Tolleson struggles one or two more times, but maybe you can just dedicate that spot to streaming

              • We're Out Of Room says:
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                @JB Gilpin: Damn half a tooth, now that memory stays with ya lol. Yeah I dumped Ozuna and re-added Dyson, with the Melancon upgrade,Kimbrel, Tolleson and McGee it makes McGee or Tolleson expendable for the right price imo. So I’m gonna hang onto Dyson incase I get an offer on McGee. If Erod returns and lives up to the hype I’ll have to open Dysons spot back up anyway. But for now it makes sense to have that security imo. I still hate that I had to trade Gausman to upgrade from Viz to Melancon but it was a good deal imo so I’m dealing with it lol.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
                  (link)

                  @We’re Out Of Room: Ugh yeah that’s for sure. Fractured the other, and both are full crowns now. With Tolleson blowing another, I’m more on the Dyson train now. Gausman has only been iffy so I think you’re looking good!

  47. Jedimasters says:
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    JB I’m thinking of adding some pitchers incase this Matz situation escalates. 10 team points league where pitchers rule. Example, 50 points per win. I do use your rankings but having trouble picking from these waiver SPs due to the win factor:

    Chen
    Baur
    S. Wright (Boston)
    Nola
    E. Rodriguez

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jedimasters: Ugh yeah, obviously scary. Ah yes, the big pitcher bonus league haha.

      Yeesh. I think it’s pretty clear between Chen in Nola, but man it’s tough to pick between the two in that format. I think I’ll lean Chen off that crazy K game yesterday. Yes it was my Brewers, but I admittedly didn’t watch too much. The highlights I saw though were really impressive

      • Jedimasters says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Thanks JB. I streamed Chen a few times last year when he was with Balt. How did he go from no Ks vs the Phillies to 12k last night??? Did you see anything different? He’s never been a K/9 pitcher.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Jedimasters: I only saw some highlights, looked like he had 4 pitches all working, and all working as K pitches. Also, the Brewers can be K happy. Yes Chen hasn’t been a “huge” K guy, but he hasn’t been terrible either, and NL (facing pitchers) should help a smidge

  48. Nittanychris says:
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    Love me some Joe Ross!

    Unfortunately, you are among the many “experts” who consistently underrates Jose Quintana.

    When will this man get his due?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Nittanychris: Well, i definitely agree I’m only an airquotes “expert” haha. Well he has been so consistently only-decent for so long now, that I feel regression is coming, especially in ROS context and throwing out everything so far. That said, he moved up a little bit this week :) Will be out this afternoon!

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