Geez, what is it about Steven Matz?!

The puns have been outpouring faster than illogical movies by Christopher Nolan.  Maybe it’s because he pitches for the Metz?  I don’t know!

I’ve been… well, naive to not rank Matz to this point.  Even with my standing concerns coming into his debut, he likely should’ve been ranked the last few weeks.  I thought it would be at least July until he was up, and I questioned how many innings he’d really get through in the Majors.  His peak is 140.2 IP last year across high-A and double-A, and he entered the Majors at 90.1 innings before yesterday’s debut.  Innings concerns are a big question mark after his career started with major elbow issues (TJ and complications).

And after that debut with 4 RBI at the plate, the mythical legend might be one of the biggest gaps from perception to reality.  Then again, I’m saying all this before breaking down his first start without seeing much of him beyond the numbers.  What Pitcher Profiles are all about!  You can’t know for sure on a guy until you really get a chance to see him pitch.  So without any more noodling, here’s how Matz looked in his debut:

First Inning: Matz’s first Major League pitch is a 96 MPH fastball way outside and to the backstop to Brandon Phillips.  Nervous nelly!  96 is then low, and the big lefty is rocky early on.  96 is inside, 3-0 to start.  95 is in there, then 95 right down the middle is rocketed to left center, it’s off the wall for a long single it was hit for so hard, but on review it hit the railing above the line and Matz’s career start opens with a leadoff homer.  Shocking since he gave up so few HR in the homer prone PCL.  Horrible at bat with no control, then two fastballs right down the middle.  So regrouping, Matz throws Joey Votto a first-pitch 80 MPH curveball and it drops in there for a strike.  Nice bounce back! But fastball is high, then Matz throws his best heater painting the outside corner at 96.  1-2 curve is low, then 95 on the hands eats him up for an easy groundout to second.  95 pounds the outside corner on Todd Frazier, then an 87 MPH change-up on the outside edge gets tipped back and absolutely fooled Frazier, 0-2.  Nasty pitch there.  Fastball high, 96 barely high, then a 78 MPH curveball gets Frazier to golf at it for an infield pop out to short.  Curve just outside to Jay Bruce, then a 96 MPH fastball gets Bruce to wave through with a horrific weak swing, 1-1:

Matz-fastball-1

Look how bad he’s fooled there!  96 up and in fouled back, 80 MPH curveball sweeps just low, 78 hangs high, then 96 MPH fastball is outside for a walk.  Man, Matz completely overpowered him, but he threw two curveballs and couldn’t get back in the zone, I didn’t like that AB.  Marlon Byrd fouls off a fastball, 95 is in, 95 again up and in is fouled back, curve breaks inside and is dribbled foul, then I think a change-up at 84 with some ridiculous downward break gets Byrd unable to hold his swing for Matz’s first career strikeout:

Matz-change-1

Second Inning: After a long 26 pitch inning, Matz needs some quickies and is in the zone at 95 to Brayan Pena, fastball again fouled back, then 94 high is chopped to second for an easy groundout.  93 way high and outside to Eugenio Suarez, then a big looping curveball at 76 breaks into the zone, 1-1.  Another looper is slashed foul, then a 95 MPH fastball is popped to shallow right for another easy out.  Pitcher Josh Smith takes 94 in there, 94 high is fouled back, then a 76 MPH fastball breaks into the zone for a K looking for indeed a quickie inning, nice stuff against the bottom of the order!

Third Inning: Well, here’s where the legend grows as Matz gives himself two runs of support with a 2 RBI double in the top of the inning.  So up 2-1 now, and Billy Hamilton bunts the first pitch and Matz makes the play for an easy one pitch out.  I guess as the Reds you hope to rattle Matz a little, but I don’t get giving up a one pitch out.  So back to the top and Phillips takes a curveball in the zone this time for strike one, another curve is fouled back, and after being behind 3-0 to Phillips to start the game, Matz is up 0-2 this time.  OK, and this is officially the moment I buy Matz.  Change-up, and Matz gets his revenge, just watch:

Matz-change-2

Wave goodbye!  96 is in there Votto, then another horrible weak swing from a Reds hitter, look at Votto wave through this 77 MPH curveball:

Matz-curveball

Nice sharp break at the end of that one.  95 is way high 1-2, curve is low, change-up is chopped foul, 95 high and a bit outside, 3-2.  This is the second time now where Matz completely overpowered someone and got to 0-2 to then fall to a full count.  But he makes this one count with a painting 95 MPH fastball to get Votto to strike out looking.  A little close, but I’d still like to see him go full attack.

Fourth Inning: Still a 2-1 game, Frazier takes a fastball in there, change-up on the outside edge is fouled off, 94 is way high, then 95 on the outside edge is ripped to left, and Frazier was able to extend his hands enough to get a homer.  The fastball was supposed to be in, but it leaked to the outside edge and got hammered.  Bruce takes a ball, then a curve drops in 1-1.  Curve is low, 96 is low, 3-1 fastball at 94 was likely too high but is chased and fouled back, then a curveball at 77 is way outside for another walk.  Attack, Matz!  Byrd then attacks himself, and hits the first pitch 94 MPH fastball into a lazy flyout to right.  One down and Pena takes 93 outside, a nice change-up at 83 drops in there, 91 is outside, then 94 on the outside edge is grounded right to Matz and the lanky lefty makes the turn for an easy double play, inning over.

Fifth Inning: At 62 pitches, Suarez gets sawed off a bit on the hands, but it flares into center for a leadoff single.  A little lucky, but his swing was ready for an inside fastball.  Then Smith bunts the first pitch for a good sacrifice, and two pitches and we’ve got runner at second with one out.  Hamilton takes a fastball high, a hanging curve stays outside, another is outside, fastball finally gets in the zone, 3-1.  95 on the outside edge is fouled back, 94 again out there popped out of play, and one more time out there and a little low is flied out to right for an easy out.  Two down, and Phillips swings out of his shoes on an 84 MPH change-up for strike one:

Matz-change-3

Bonus 5th GIF!  So nasty that Phillips re-tweaked his hand or wrist.  So Phillips is banged up, it’s time to attack, Matz!  Change-up is taken outside, and I hate that pitch.  Challenge his gimpy hand with power!  And there is the fastball at “only” 94 and he’s way behind on it.  Geez, I should be a catcher and call these games!  Then change-up again is popped up in the infield, it gets it done but another fastball would’ve gotten Matz another K, no question.

Sixth Inning: Now a 3-2 game, and Matz throws a high fastball to Votto, fastball then gets in there, change stays inside, curveball breaking into the zone gets Votto hacking through it, 2-2.  Votto didn’t give it a weak swing like that earlier GIF, but still got tied up.  Fastball flared foul, then a 75 MPH curveball gets Votto to fly it lazily to center for an easy out.  Votto dropped a very, VERY audible F bomb after hitting that one!  Frazier slashes a first pitch fastball foul, change-up at 86 gets him out in front to fly it foul, change-up again is outside, change yet again outside, fastball on the hands fouled back, then a 77 MPH curveball that stayed inside and broke in gets a swing and miss for another K.  Then a first pitch curveball at 77 gets Bruce to fly out lazily to left for a very quick inning.

Seventh Inning: And the legend continues, with Matz picking up 2 more RBI for the well-publicized 4 RBI debut.  But we don’t care about that!  We only want pitching, Matz is now up 6-2, and Byrd rips a 94 MPH fastball right past third for a leadoff single on the first pitch.  95 is in there to Pena, then a 94 MPH fastball is ripped to Wilmer Flores at second and he just misses it on a dive for back-to-back singles.  Both were hit hard, but both were a foot or two from being outs.  Curveball drops in to Suarez, change is low, change again is inside, fastball at 94 perfectly paints the low inside corner, 2-2.  Might have been low.  Then a 95 MPH fastball is chopped perfectly to short for a tailor-made double play.  Lordy the Reds bottom of the order is awful.  First-pitch curve is in there to pinch-hitter Jason Bourgeois, fastball at 96 paints the outside corner for a nasty 0-2 count, 95 is slashed foul, then 95 again barely high out of the zone gets a swing and miss for his 6th K.

Eighth Inning: At 100 pitches, I’m shocked to see Matz back out there, but he gets 95 in there to Hamilton, Hamilton whiffs at 96 outside, 95 is just inside, then 95 on the outside edge is inside-outed to first for an easy first out.  The replacement for Phillips is Ivan De Jesus who hits the first pitch fastball pretty well to center, but it wasn’t the toughest catch to get the second out.  Matz blows Votto away on the inside edge at 96, 95 is outside, 95 again is outside, curve stays high, then a fastball is just inside for a two-out walk.  Matz will come out, but the legend is born.

Final Line:  W  7.2 IP  110 Pitches (72 Strikes)  2 ER  5 Hits  3 Walks  6 K  Gamescore: 64   Gamescore+: 65.6

Final Analysis: Monster start, and with the historic 4 RBIs I think this could be the ultimate sell-high in redraft leagues.  Almost all of his in-play outs were pretty weakly hit, so I’m not surprised in the least to see his Gamescore+ come out higher than his Gamescore.

As with most buzzy young guns, it all starts with a power fastball.  Reaching 96 several times, it very very rarely fell out of the 94-96 range.  Matz has a very smooth delivery with the heater, which makes it jump up on hitters.  His main off-speed is a curveball, that had some nice sharp movement and he was able to throw it for strikes.  I wish he was able to use it more in a swing-and-miss fashion – instead it broke more laterally and got misses while dancing in the zone.  Then there’s my real eye-opener – a dominating change-up.  Most young pitchers don’t have a change-up that can stay consistent, but man oh man – Matz’s change was a thing of beauty.  It was so good I broke my 4 GIF rule!  With that pitch as developed as it is, it kept the Reds off balance all night long.

So with virtually rave reviews from everyone – and now me included – why is Matz only 50 for me rest of season?  All boils down to innings.  As I mentioned in the open, Matz’s 140.2 innings was his peak last year, and I would be really shocked if the Mets allow him to go over 180.  He missed his first three years after being drafted with elbow issues, and the Mets have shown they like to handle pitchers cautiously.  I also think the Mets fall further out of the race with that horrific offense.  With that 180 innings in mind, Matz has now thrown 98 this year.  That’s 82 remaining, so maybe 11-12 starts left?  It’s possible he pitches through the end of the year if they skip some starts, but I don’t know if he’s going to push into the top 30s of value ROS with fewer innings.  And one final bit of cold water – that Reds line-up was atrocious yesterday.

In dynasty leagues though, it’s a whole new ball game.  I was blown away by that change-up, and looking at my ranks, I think he’s an easy top-20 guy.  His future is easily ace-worthy.  But building from that valuation and this awesome debut, I think you could get a fortune right now in redraft leagues.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, Team
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Max Scherzer, WAS
3 Chris Sale, CWS
4 Felix Hernandez, SEA
5 Corey Kluber, CLE
6 Madison Bumgarner, SF
7 David Price, DET
8 Gerrit Cole, PIT
9 Zack Greinke, LAD
10 Cole Hamels, PHI
11 Matt Harvey, NYM
12 Chris Archer, TB
13 Jake Arrieta, CHC
14 Jacob deGrom, NYM
15 Sonny Gray, OAK
16 Johnny Cueto, CIN
17 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
18 James Shields, SD
19 Francisco Liriano, PIT
20 Jose Fernandez, MIA
21 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
22 Jon Lester, CHC
23 Michael Wacha, STL
24 Michael Pineda, NYY
25 Garrett Richards, LAA
26 Danny Salazar, CLE
27 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
28 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
29 Jeff Samardzija, CWS
30 Jason Hammel, CHC
31 Carlos Martinez, STL
32 Taijuan Walker, SEA
33 Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
34 Tyson Ross, SD
35 Alex Wood, ATL
36 Scott Kazmir, OAK
37 Trevor Bauer, CLE
38 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
39 Shelby Miller, ATL
40 A.J. Burnett, PIT
41 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
42 Lance McCullers, HOU
43 Jesse Chavez, OAK
44 John Lackey, STL
45 Julio Teheran, ATL
46 Mat Latos, MIA
47 Lance Lynn, STL
48 Clay Buchholz, BOS
49 Collin McHugh, HOU
50 Steven Matz, NYM
51 Jose Quintana, CWS
52 Andrew Cashner, SD
53 Mike Fiers, MIL
54 Vincent Velasquez, HOU
55 Carlos Rodon, CWS
56 Jake Odorizzi, TB
57 Jesse Hahn, OAK
58 Patrick Corbin, ARI
59 Yordano Ventura, KC
60 Drew Hutchison, TOR
61 Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
62 Chase Anderson, ARI
63 Anibal Sanchez, DET
64 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
65 Trevor May, MIN
66 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
67 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
68 Jaime Garcia, STL
69 Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL
70 Edinson Volquez, KC
71 Phil Hughes, MIN
72 J.A. Happ, SEA
73 Kevin Gausman, BAL
74 Ian Kennedy, SD
75 Wei-Yin Chen, BAL
76 Chris Heston, SF
77 Ervin Santana, MIN
78 Alfredo Simon, DET
79 Matt Moore, TB
80 Joe Blanton, KC
81 Kendall Graveman, OAK
82 Marco Estrada, TOR
83 Justin Verlander, DET
84 Nate Karns, TB
85 Dan Haren, MIA
86 Mike Leake, CIN
87 Jake Peavy, SF
88 Hector Santiago, LAA
89 C.J. Wilson, LAA
90 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
91 Joe Ross, WAS
92 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
93 Aaron Sanchez, TOR (oops! will fix next week)
94 Aaron Harang, PHI
95 Bartolo Colon, NYM
96 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
97 Matt Shoemaker, LAA
98 Danny Duffy, KC
99 Yovani Gallardo, TEX
100 Kyle Gibson, MIN

Dropped Out: Tim Lincecum, SF (was only barely in anyway – awful/injured), Mike Foltynewicz, ATL (more below), Mike Bolsinger, LAD (never made it further than the 90s, figured it would end), Chi Chi Gonzalez, TEX (I don’t think made it past 97, so the same…), Rick Porcello, BOS (barely bounced in, he’s just been so hittable.)

  • Yikes, the grumpy old man in me is more stubborn than Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino.  “Get off my lawn!”  Clayton Kershaw is still going to edge out Max Scherzer for me ROS, but it’s splitting microscopic hairs.
  • All this elbow stuff from Johnny Cueto is now starting to give me the heebie jeebies.  I know he throws in a bad park, but with a wonky elbow and if he’s traded to the AL…  Eesh.
  • Mmmmm it’s about to be Jose Fernandez Thursday!  I’m anointing it a national holiday.
  • Really pumped for Patrick Corbin coming off the TJ as well.  It’s been a little bit of a rocky rehab road (a fun Ben & Jerry’s flavor), and you might bench him his first few starts, but I’m excited.
  • For extended thoughts on why you did a double-take on Joe Blanton, check out today’s Podcast.  I’d have him even higher if he was for-sure in the rotation ROS!
  • Ugh, stupid former Brewers doing well…  Yovani Gallardo I still can’t fully believe in, and same for Marco Estrada.  But both have shown enough to make it in.  Estrada’s change-up is the only good pitch either has, so he gets a slight boost.
  • Mike Foltynewicz has walked 4 in each of his two AAA starts since being sent down.  Yikes.

Am I too low on Matz ROS?  And what do you think of the rest of the top 100?  Shoot your thoughts below!

Also, I will be out next week, so the Profile will return the following Monday, July 13.  See you then, Razzball Nation!

 

  1. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Wait, what, what what — I loved Interstellar!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Grey: Awwwwwwwwwwwful. So many gaps in logic! Needed an extra script sup, thats for sure!

      • Relsh says:
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        @JB Gilpin: It’s an easy film to criticize for those reasons. As a visual/emotional piece of art it was stunning. Guess it depends what you want to appreciate it for. I understand why Nolan gets a lot of flack given the popularity of his movies, not sure why people became so polarized on this one in particular though.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Relsh: Agree on visual, and audio as well. But it took me out of the movie too much.

          As I mention in that plot holes article I did, I never was a Nolan hater until this last one, it just seemed like such lazy storytelling IMO. Too dependent on his score/visuals. He needs to do another neo noir to get back to his roots

          • L-Boogie says:
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            @JB Gilpin: I enjoyed the movie but yeah, plot holes, man. Worst of all…(MAJOR SPOILER ALERT, FOLKS) How could “future humans” put the wormhole there for the “past humans” to figure out how to save the planet? If they didn’t figure it out the first time around, the planet would be destroyed and there would be no future humans to put the wormhole there. How did the future humans get to be in the future?!?!?

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @L-Boogie: Haha exactly, it’s all a paradox. On the same scale, how did McConnwhatever know he had to send himself back, why not just explain everything in his gravity waves or whatever haha

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Sherm: Hahhaa nice on both! Didn’t really think about how illogical the happy ending was just because all the steps toward it happening didn’t make sense haha

                  • Jammer McSlam says:
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                    @JB Gilpin:

                    Boogie

                    What you are missing is that the science that we currently understand, which IS FUCKING MIND BLOWING and this movie tries to tackle which is impossible in 3 hours, is that time isn’t a linear arrow as we see it, but happening all the time in a different dimension (where he finds himself at the end of the movie). So there is no “1st time” around, it was always like that as soon as the wormhole gets put in from “the future”. Think of it like a house. If you are in one room “the present” and walk around to the other side of one wall in another room “the future” but then bulldoze the wall you now don’t have a wall in the past and the future.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @Jammer McSlam: I don’t disagree with that at all, and the movie could’ve been so good, just had narrative flaws, most of them not dealing with time science. It was so close to being great, maybe that’s what made me the maddest!

  2. Clint says:
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    Don’t worry about Yo Yo Ma and Poncharillo doing well elsewhere, JB. I like them both too but we Brewer fans know that when the bottom falls out, the highs they took you to were not worth it.

    On another Brewer note, I heard the Yankees’ youngster Aaron Judge compared to Richie Sexson. And I was just starting to get interested in snatching him up too!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Clint: Yup, totally agree with that. Just so annoying! Yoga hasn’t been this good since like, I dunno 2009 and Estrada never put together two great games like that.

      Oh yeah I heard that too! True story, at 6’7 in college freshman dorm, ppl called me “Big Sexy” It was awesome, I pretty much thought I was Richie walkin around :)

  3. Steve Stevenson says:
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    Love these profiles. Do you have any IP concerns for Taijuan or McCullers? Thinking of dropping Ventura for one of them in a limited moves H2H, but it’s only worthwhile if they’re around for the playoffs.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Steve Stevenson: Thanks man! Yeah I do with both – Walker with the sahoulder issues last year and McCullers being young. more so with Walker actually, but even so, I’d have to lose Ventura for him. Ventura could just as easily be out – very injuy prone

      • Steve Stevenson says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Yeah I’m eventually losing Ventura for someone, it’s just a matter of whether I do it now for ROS value, wait until I have a need, or hold the move until the playoffs so I can burn it on a 2-starter with good matchups or hot schmotato or something.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Steve Stevenson: Yeah in limited moves it’s a tough call. I think Walker has been just too good to leave him out there though

  4. peter quill says:
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    JB this is not good, you are not putting cold water on my Matz induced boner. Thinking 2016 season and beyond… would you move Tyson Ross now for future Matz?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @peter quill: Haha well, it’s only tepid water :) Defffff would do that move for Matz though!

  5. Chris says:
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    The mets bias in me is saying he is number 3! after Harvey and Syndergaard! All joking aside i think a few more starts (i hope i should say) we see him in the Taijuan Walker range.

    I own Keuchel and I have been pretty apprehensive about him, slotting him in every matchup but just waiting for the shellacking to happen. How many good starts left till we all can think he’s a top 10 ROS though?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: Hah, well Harvey I think is the ace, Matz a close 2nd. Syndergaard needs a third pitch to fully develop to long-term be in my Matz range. Maybe he gets up to Walker, but he’d have to be dominant since the innings scare me for this yr.

      Eeeeeesh, it’d have to be like 5 more huge K starts. That’s about all that’s holding him back, long-term big Ks and some regression signs. Glad I got him in a ton of leagues though, my rank on him was bullish!

      • Chris says:
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        @JB Gilpin: I’m only in a 10 team H2H where i have him (and my rotation dirty *humble brag* with Sale, Keuchel, DeGrom, Archer and a streamer). I got him as a FA because of the Sale situation first week of the season. thank the lord for that!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Chris: Whoa sweet, nice work man! Yeah I got him like last round or two, I didn’t get the hate at all!

  6. John says:
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    I’m in a 12 team redraft with all NY owners. Pitching is stretched thin in the league but was lucky enough to stash Matz. League is QS, Ks, and K/9. Would you prefer having him or trade to acquire someone more established like say Quintana or a Gio Gonzalez? Or even reach for someone in the 30-40 range.

    I have Chase Anderson bringing up the rear of my rotation. Is he worth a hold over Corbin or De La Rosa? I had De la Rosa during his rough patch but he is pitching lights out and his strikeout numbers are the best my waiver wire has to offer.

    I appreciate the help.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @John: I probably wouldn’t make the move for those two lefties. I’d have to get higher. I’d shoot for the moon for like a Wacha.
      Nah, I would go for Corbin of the Diamondbacks for the upside. Man I was like a month off from calling rubby’s hot streak. He burned me, never again! Haha. So yeah I’m giving Corbin the nod.

      Any time!

      • John says:
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        I shit you not, two days after I dropped him to chase saves with McGee, he started going on the tear. I had him for three terrible starts and now I’ve watched him string together three great starts!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @John: Hah yeah I was maybe a start or two before that, and I just can’t go back haha. Sooooooo annoying! As soon as you buy back in he’ll give up 4 homers and crush us

  7. Hot Rod

    JimmyBond says:
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    Gotta make a drop to make way for JFer coming off the DL. Latos or ERodriguez? Latter got pasted his week but Latos inconsistent too, and I have doubts about Marlins offense in a Stanton-less void. This in a redraft league where I prob won’t have room to keep Erod with Matz, JFer, Carrasco, McCullers, etc

    Speaking of marlins when will Ozuna wake up? Is he drop worthy?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @JimmyBond: Well news came out today Latos is on the block, but then again it hurts his home ball park for Latos. I think I’d lose E rod.

      If Ozuna is rotting on your bench, and not a huge league, yeah I’m good losing him

  8. Colonel Angus says:
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    I got offered Todd Frazier for Mad Bum. What should I do?

    • Colonel Angus says:
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      @Colonel Angus: I also got offered a package of Matz, Syndergaard and Bruce for Mad Bum.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Colonel Angus: Ohhhhh I think I’d have to take Frazier. Unless it’s like an NL only, I don’t like the package one as much. A lot of blah for an ace

        • Colonel Angus says:
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          @JB Gilpin: It’s a 12 team mixed dynasty league. My other pitchers are David Price, James Shields, Carlos Rodon & Francisco Liriano. My 1B is Chris Davis.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Colonel Angus: Gotcha, yeah still not doing the Bruce one, but I gotta take the Frazier one, even though Mad Bum’s age is tough to give up

  9. Ante GALIC says:
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    JB!!!

    Thanks a million, again, man! You rock! Fantastic anaylsis. Especially loved the Votto and Phillips GIFs!! Can’t believe that they are MLB professionals but it must be the power of his pitches. Votto is from my home town, went to a high school about a mile from where we lived but (reversal) never saw him or knew him and he must be really good or dedicated to make at the MLB level as a Canadian.

    Am starting Graveman in 3/4 leagues this week. Wish me luck. Figure that I have to try something slightly different. I have some ground to make up in 2 leagues (have been suffering from injuries to CGomez, Odorizzi, Rendon (twice), Stanton, etc., then inefficiency with Cashner (he’s gone) and Ross (he’s turned it around.)).

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Ante GALIC: thanks so much man! yeah the GIFs picked themselves this start, that’s for sure! Some nasty stuff from Matz.

      Graveman has been surprisingly good lately. Had to move him up. I would’ve streamed him tonight too in the league where I need innings, but he was already scooped up. You wanna wish me luck? rolling Blanton and Cody Anderson tonight hahahaha. But I like Blanton…

      Thanks again for dropping by!

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Of course, man! best of luck with blanton and especially cody anderson tonight. hopefully blanton can get a little deeper into the game than last time out but he looked good from what I saw (pitch selection and location).

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Ante GALIC: Exactly, I watched that last one too and he was unreal. I’m hoping they stretch him out too and commit to him, not revert back to long relief. Thanks man!

  10. los locos says:
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    JB,

    Nice column as usual.

    Need one starter for this week. Weekly league, QS, K/9

    I own Fiers, the others are on waivers. If I pick one up, need to drop either Bauer or Heaney.

    Fiers @Cin
    Hendrick NYN @Mia
    Kennedy SEA @StL
    Heaney NYA
    Bolsinger @ARI, NYN

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @los locos: Thanks for stopping by man! Eeeee, I’m not huge on heaney. I think I’d have to grab hendrircks for him. Fiers looked pretty good last time out, not a great matchup at Cincy, but man they looked awful yesterday – given vs. Matz, but the names alone were bad

  11. Eric B says:
    (link)

    Still no Magic Mike Montgomery? I figured he would be on par with Graveman. I’m at work now but I’ll be checking back in later.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Eric B: Nah, I had him innnnn, two weeks ago I think? Then dropped him out due to low Ks. Didn’t quite get in again this week due to some bad peripherals. Another big K game though and it might be Magic Mike XXL!

      • Eric B says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Well I streamed Hutchinson yesterday in my last spot(that went well although I lost my match up 4-6 for the week). I’m streaming Graveman today…think Graveman is worth holding on to for his 2nd start this week, drop him to re-acquire Vinny V or just keep streaming like I’m binge watching Daredevil on Netflix lol?

        As we discussed in last weeks post, injuries are killing me! I’m still in 1st but my lead is down to 6 games with only 4 playoff spots available. Roster is below:
        5×5 HTH OBP
        Bats
        C McCann
        1B Y. Grandal
        2B Kipnis
        3B Santana
        SS Andrus
        OF M.Taylor
        OF Calhoun
        OF Springer
        OF Betts
        Util Pollock
        Util 2B/SS/3B Semien
        Util Avisail Garcia
        Bench Sano
        Bench Freeman(DL no room)
        DL Soler
        DL Stanton

        Staff
        P Kluber
        P Chavez
        P Cole
        P Salazar
        P T. Walker
        SP Ventura(DL no room)
        SP Bauer
        RP Chapman
        RP Britton
        Bench RP Perkins
        Bench RP Melancon
        Bench SP Graveman
        DL Odorizzi

        Still struggling to get production at SS Jace Peterson and Aldreton Simmons are on the wirebut are either better options than Andrus ROS? Not much in power other than Singelton out there and he still has to show he can hit. Odor has shown some pop and speed but I have Kipnis and Semien backs up 2nd, 3rd and SS. Taylor is the first man out if I make an add, like anyone over him?

        On the pitching side I mentioned above I could re-acquire Vinny, keep Graveman or keep streaming while I wait for Ventura and Odorizzi to get back. Gonna try to sneak Paxton back on my DL when I get a spot since he’s making some small steps.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Eric B: Hahaha I need to start Daredevil! Too much good stuff on TV these days… I would prob hold GRaveman if it goes well, he’s been good, even though I still like VV.

          Those SS are all so blah. Rough position. I’d just keep rollin the hot hand, if any of their hands are hot at all haha. Still gonna keep Taylor for now.

          Yup would try and get Pax too, but only if your hurt guys start coming back. Odorizzi is close and Soler too, if both are back and that spot is open, Pax me!

          • Eric B says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin: Yeah I was struggling with dropping Taylor for Odor, but I’m gonna try to practice patience lol. If Graveman digs himself one, you taking Vinny or Magic Mike to stream this week?

            SS is the bane of my existence I should have just scooped up Correa when I had the chance but I tried to wait too long, had Russell earlier but flipped him for Salazaar and Calhoun, cant say I regret that. Kept hoping Alexi would heat up but it just aint happening, Simmons and Jace go from hot to cold anytime I try to add them so Im stuck with Elvis and Semien as we speak.

            Soler and Ventura are occupying active spots for me so I’m going to have to drop people for Odorizzi and Freeman when they return and eventually Stanton…still in mourning over his hammate injury…sob.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @Eric B: I would likely go Vinny.

              Hahaha yeah SS is rough, only like 4-5 good ones. Hah yeah DL moves will make it a crunch, but healthy guys will help!

              • Eric B says:
                (link)

                @JB Gilpin: Thanks as always JB…maybe we’ll get a chance to meet up in Nov…Hail to The Redskins lol!

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
                  (link)

                  @Eric B: Booooo, RGpee! (I’m going to start a 5 year olds chant apparently)

                  • Eric B says:
                    (link)

                    @JB Gilpin: lol…now be a good lil kitty.

                    • Fastpitch says:
                      (link)

                      @Eric B: Drop Soler.

  12. Ships says:
    (link)

    Hi JB, love your work. Your rankings have been my waiver pickup bible.

    I need to add SPs and only have 10 transactions left for ROS, so I need to be selective.

    My Staff is Cole, Carrasco, Pineda, Bucholz, Chavez, Matz, Chen, C Anderson, Happ, Velazquez, Graveman. It’s a weekly H2H using QS instead of Wins. I have Seigrist who I am dropping.

    On the wire are Nelson, Hendricks, Harang, Gausman, E Santana. Could you rank ROS please. Does anyone stand out from this Motley Crew? Would you drop any of my current staff for any on the wire? I have no hitters on my bench and could keep what I have and flip Seigrist for a bench bat.

    Appreciate your feedback!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Ships: Thanks so much for that man!

      Wihout double checking above, I think it’s still Nelson #1 for me, but Hendricks is close. I don’t think any really stand out though. hendricks might get a slight nod since he tends to be able to go deep to help get QS. I think since limited moves, I might try for a bench bat that you can slot around, ala Brock Holt or someone like that to maixmize games.

      Hope that helps!

  13. MRegan says:
    (link)

    Aaron Sanchez, the pitcher so nice, you rated him twice!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @MRegan: Fffffff that’s where Estrada’s name was gonna go! haha I copied Sanchez and was gonna put Estrada somewhere in there, and I guess that’s where I left off :) Thanks for the catch!

  14. Gonzo_The_Great says:
    (link)

    JB- I look forward to this column all week. Great work as always.

    The curious case of Joe Blanton is fascinating. Here’s a guy who was getting dangerously close to “Too Fat To Pitch” territory in his last years with the Phillies and the Angels and who is now having a quite the little career resurgence. Will be interesting to see how he shakes out.

    Any thoughts on McHugh’s last two starts? Peripherals still aren’t as great as last year, but nice to see his luck breaking his way for a change.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Gonzo_The_Great: Thanks so much! Even though it’s a lot of stuff in there, I look forward to putting these together too.

      Blanton is so interesting if it works out ROS. Hopefully it’s here to stay, would love to be in front of it.

      I didn’t look too much into McHugh since it’s a smaller sample and he’d been mid-level virtually all yr, but nothing seems to have changed too much. Missing game log pitch data from his last start, but the one before wasn’t much different either, so maybe he’s just locating a tad better.

  15. Scott says:
    (link)

    Weekly league. I’m thinking of starting the risky Rodriguez (he gets two this week, albeit Toronto and Houston).

    Are any of the below worth benching to get Rodriguez’ two starts in my lineup?

    Tyson Ross @ STL
    Jeff Samardzija v. BAL

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Scott: Ummmm, only one for me is Ross. Good matchup vs a patient team… I’m leaning keeping Ross in though

      • Scott says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin:

        Thanks! I’ll let Ross roll then.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Scott Any time!

  16. Zeus says:
    (link)

    So you wouldn’t do a Votto for Cueto in an ObP league?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Zeus: Whewwwwww, probably not. Maybe if I was doing really well in OBP already and had a huge pitching need, but I likely wouldn’t

      • Zeus says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: that’s kind of the case I am in first in all offensive categories and let in era and whip.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Zeus: Wow, yeah if you’re first in O and need the help, I don’t mind it then!

  17. Michael says:
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    Why no Brett Anderson? I feel like he has pitched well enough to be around the 70’s.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Michael: Hah I had that same exact thought looking at guys I had out. Came down to one thing – injury history. I have very little faith he makes it until the end of the year healthy, so it kept him out in ROS terms. Def worth owning in the 70 range for now though.

  18. SDB says:
    (link)

    JB!

    Thanks again. This is the article I most look forward to each week @ Razzball

    Here’s my deal. I’ve got the worst pitching and the best hitting in my league. I’m suffering a lot of 7-7 , 8-6, 6-8 type outcomes in a 14 category league. An upgrade at pitching would do my team well. Here’s my top SPs:

    M.Tanaka
    G.Richards
    A.Wood
    J.Chavez
    L.McCullers
    C.Bucholtz

    I’ve been offered Carrasco, Matz, and Kinsler for Encarnacion. It feels like not enough, or too risky on how much return I’ll get out of Kinsler and Matz. What do you think?

    I’ve been considering counter-offering Encarnacion for Carrasco and Hamels. Any thoughts?

    Thanks in advance!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @SDB: Thanks so much man!

      Damn, that sucks man! Yeah I can see why you’ve had issues, I like all those guys but all of them have had pretty massive ups and downs.

      Man, Kinsler is indeed scary. I would counter with someone othetr than Kinsler, but the value seems pretty close. Ohhhh I like your counter though. Or maybe Carrasco+Matz+a good closer or something.

      Any time!

  19. Jake Taylor says:
    (link)

    JB

    Is Archer on a limitings limit?

    • Carnac says:
      (link)

      Archer had 195 IP last year, so probably not very limited this year.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Jake Taylor: Yeah I agree [email protected]Carnac: , EXCEPT IT WAS 194.2 CARNAC! Way to check your facts :) I don’t think they’d limit him at all

        • Carnac says:
          (link)

          Since you asked, there are two things that do secretly annoy my inner pedant about dialect of baseball:

          1) Calling a % of an IP “.1” or “.2” – who decided it was cool to change a fraction to an incorrect decimal??

          2) RBIs. Come on, baseball. Like Attorneys General, it should obviously be RsBI.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @Carnac: Hah well 1 doesn’t bother me too much, it shorthands having to do 1/3 or 2/3 or running decimals. RBIs I do kinda buy though haha

          • goodfold2 says:
            (link)

            @Carnac: i’ve always fixed that math illiterate b.s. by just doing 11.66 or 43.33 and such. funny that the most math driven sport was set up by people that probably couldn’t do their taxes (i.e. simple).

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @goodfold2: Yeah, I think Rotowire (?) does their stats that way, but yes it’s interesting. I bet early stats were done by corrupt ppl like the whole black sox thing! Although it likely extends well before that haha

  20. Carnac says:
    (link)

    Nice write up and analysis, JB. Nice ‘cast this week, too. If I had to pick one… ugh, I can’t! It’s a Sophie’s Choice.

    With the Mets’ adoption of a 6 man rotation, I went to my calendar to see where that puts Matz ROS with 11-12 more starts. My very rough verdict: mid-September-ish. That’s IF the Mets keep a 6 man rotation. Which I kind of doubt. But they probably should.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Carnac: Hahahaha thanks man! Glad the Sophie’s Choice is catching on.

      Hmmmm interesting. I doubt it maintains as well though. I figure one of the vets (cough, niese) gets hurt or gets moved. Mid-Sept sounds about right for Matz though, since he likely gets a start or two skipped, I think that’s how they do it. Or 2-3 get pushed a few days

      • Carnac says:
        (link)

        Well the Mets already proved they could make a 6 man rotation work for almost 10 days earlier this season. I see no reason they don’t stick with it until the All Star Break.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Carnac: Hahaha “for almost 10 days”. Might make it to then, but that’s it!

  21. Oranje says:
    (link)

    I think I have asked everyone this question, maybe even asked you last week…would you trade Archer for Machado? I am worried about making the deal. Evidenced by me asking 4 people for their opinion. Should I be?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Oranje: Haha, yeah that is a worrisome deal for sure. In that it’s really close. Totally needs based to me, but if you’re doing OK in pitching and already have a 3B I might think twice on it

      • Oranje says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Thanks. I have a bounty of SPs: Arrieta, Greinke, Hamels, Kluber, Lester, Liriano and Archer. I currently only start one RP cuz saves are inconsistent and I am never sure who to bench. Problem is that Freeman, Rendon and mi amor Giancarlo are on the DL. My current 3b is Moose-tacos. Regardless of all that I am doubtful.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Oranje: Well Mr. Tacos has been really solid.but that rotation is nasty! Given that bit of info I think I might have to take it

        • goodfold2 says:
          (link)

          @Oranje: with 7 top 30 guys hell yeah. how did you even draft that while still having an offense? greinke/hamels/kluber/lester were all pre 100 drafted ADP guys, arrieta too probably. great value on the other 2.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @goodfold2: Might be a trade swindler!

  22. royce! says:
    (link)

    Metz is a really great band and I hope that they acquire many more fans due to this serendipitous moment in time.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @royce!: Hahahaha I had no idea it was a band! I’ll have to check em out

      • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: pretty much new jesus lizard, they kick ass.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: Hah never heard of them either, I’m getting some good new music recommendations!

  23. Tom says:
    (link)

    Hey man!

    In a weekly lock/ h2h pts league which pitcher are you taking a gamble on & streaming for this week: Kendall Graveman, Ryan Vogelsong or Marco Estrada. Estrada’s start vs the Tigers scares me!

    Graveman (vs Rockies & hale, start 2 is vs King Felix both in OAK)

    Vogelsong’s two recent starts looked very solid (this week @ Miami & latos, start 2 is @ DC & Jordan zimmermann, both on the road.)

    Estrada (vs Red Sox & Eduardo Rodriquez , start 2 @ Detroit & verlander.)

    Mike leake (vs twins & pelfrey, start 2 is vs Brewers & jungmann)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Tom: Yo! Def agree Estrada is scary! It’s between Leake and Graveman for me, I actually kinda like Leake for this week. Good matchups and throwing his cutter harder lately

  24. malamoney

    malamoney says:
    (link)

    Great stuff as always JB!

    Would you trade Strasburg and Pollock for Bumgarner? Points league where top pitchers are a premium as they score more points than hitters. Right now Scherzer leads pitchers with 461. Keuchel has 413. Goldschmidt leads hitters with 324. Then Harper with 286.

    I have managed over the seasons acquire Felix, Greinke, Strasburg and recently added Hamels and Cole. Love my staff. We only start 4, so each week I have to sit one of these guys. That’s been Strasburg lately for obvious reasons, but after his past 2 outings, he isn’t quite the obvious sit anymore. Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @malamoney: Thanks man! Hmmmm, it’s def close. If Pts league then might only be 3 OF too and Pollock is a 3rd OF at best probably. And with so few starters going each week, yeah I think I’m holding off. thanks for stopping by!

  25. Hern says:
    (link)

    Would you drop ERod or Anderson for Bauer or Buehrle? Possibly both?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Hern: I would only grab Bauer, but def getting him, he’s my favorite of the bunch. Likely dropping Erod

  26. JB Gilpin

    JB Gilpin says:
    (link)

    Before I hear any Blanton ish, there’s no way I could’ve known he would look completely different than his first two starts. Velo fell 2-3 MPH, bad body language, and he had 3 walks ON THE SEASON! What a bum tonight, cutting everywhere

  27. greg says:
    (link)

    So you like Chavez over Fiers?

    I have Moore on the DL. I have Kluber, Archer, DeGrom, CMart, Matz, JoeFer, JChavez, and Bucholz. Let Moore go, I am imagining?

    Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @greg: Yeah I do, I know his last 2 haven’t been great but @TEX was one I benched him for vs a lot of lefties and KS is a rough matchup too. Whewwww, yeah if I had to pick right now I would cut Moore, can you keep him on your DL when he makes his first start and re-evaluate?

  28. JJ says:
    (link)

    How close to the top 100 do you have Fister?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @JJ: He’s not in since these are roto ranks, but he’s kinda close. Off a great start but was bad before that off the DL, another good week and he’ll be in. If hitting stats for pitchers counted, he’d def be in!

  29. Who Dat Ninja! says:
    (link)

    ROS Estrada or Tyson Ross?

  30. Carnac says:
    (link)

    Btw, happy bachelors’ week(end) my man… Congrats. Careful while you’re at the game or you might get tapped for the Phils’ front office. That place sounds kinda like Mad Mad: Fury Road. Or maybe Jurassic World.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Carnac: Thanks man! Hahaha, well since I’m tall my buddies said theyre gonna try to convince ppl I was a 2nd round 76ers pick haha

  31. Robert says:
    (link)

    Cole Hamels was dropped by am impatient owner. Who do I drop for Hamels? Ross,
    McCullers, Matz

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Robert: Whoa, crazy! Damnnnnn, really no other options than those guys? I gotta go Matz actually

  32. Funscombe says:
    (link)

    Great stuff as always! Thanks for the analysis :)

    I’m in a 10 man head to head leave, keep 8

    My pitching staff right now is

    Kershaw
    Bumgarner
    Cueto
    Lester
    Matz
    E. Rodriguez

    Have Jose Fernandez this Thursday, and also have Corbin stashed.

    Are you razzballers starting E rod against Toronto tomorrow? I have a bad feeling.

    Also,

    I recently dumped Tehrahn, and he’s been an FA for two weeks or so. Grab him for the Phillies start?

    If so, I gotta make a drop- either Erod or an outfielder

    (A. Gordon, Billy Burns, JD Martinez, Pederson, or the likely candidate; Cameron Maybin).

    So do I start Erod? Do I pick up Teheran again, and if so, do I swap him for Maybin or Erod?

    Thanks for helping me out of my predicament guys <3

    And thanks again for the great work!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Funscombe: Thanks for stopping by! Nahhhhh I wouldn’t use E Rod there. Lefty vs a team that murders lefties.

      Sure, yeah I like the Teheran start if you’re not losing anyone too good. I’m good losing E Rod to grab him back.

      Any time!

  33. Squidblob says:
    (link)

    Dang, I just traded for Lance Lynn- thought he slotted more in the Jordan Zimmerman thru Scott Kazmir range- you have any concerns about Lynn?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Squidblob: Ummm, maybe I should’ve moved him up a tad more re-thinking it, he’s not that far off. Still lingering elbow concerns even though he said he’s dealt with this forearm thing a while

  34. Five-On-One says:
    (link)

    Hi JB – Love the analysis. Not a Mets fan, and think the 6-man rotation will limit Matz’s starts (and value), but he looked great, and I wish I had him on any of my teams. Can I bother you for some advice in a 12-team 5×5 weekly move league?

    1-start Fiers @CIN (SON value $17.1)
    1-start Zimmermann vSF ($9.0)
    1-start McHugh @BOS (-$13)
    1-start Kennedy 2STL (-$1.4)
    1-start Hutchison @DET (-$0.4)
    2-start Fister @ATL (-$2.9), vCIN (-$0.8)
    2-start BAnderson @AZ (-$8.5), vPHI ($22.8)
    2-start Garza @PHI ($1.8), vATL ($0.1)
    2-start Porcello @TOR (-$3.4), vMIA ($8.9)

    Probably starting Fiers and Zimmermann. That leaves room for 1 or 2 others. I liked Fister, but then saw his SON Values, and SON is pretty good. Then Anderson’s schizo week jumped out at me. Do I dare roll the dice with him? Or is Garza against 2 week offenses the way to go? If you could rank them and give me your thoughts I would be grateful.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Five-On-One: Agree he indeed looked good, on a start-by-start basis he’s def a good bit higher and certainly a must own.

      No bother at all! Not trsuting Garza at all as the resident Brewers fan hahaha. Yeah I like the 2 starts Anderson a good bit. I think he’s my #1 option for ya, McHugh might be #2

  35. Holden says:
    (link)

    I think you guys are missing the boat on Bolsinger. ERA, fip, xFIP all stellar. Good K rate and plays on a good team.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Holden: Mehhhh, I dunno I think those are things that are small sample lucky still. Everything has been trending the wrong way since the first few starts

  36. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
    (link)

    what’s up jbizzle!

    ROS – rank Estrada, Velasquez, Santana, Desclafani

    *I could also keep any of them next year in the 25th round

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @SheriffMcRawDawg: What’s good man?! I think Velasquez is still my #1 especially with the keeper clause in there. Then Estrada, Erv, Desc

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: thanks man – and switching gears – would you drop Rajai davis for Ender Inciarte? in a deeper league? should I do that like 5 minutes ago?

        have fun on the bach trip man

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @SheriffMcRawDawg: Ummmm, I don’t think it’s that far off, especially if it’s a bottom roster spot and you need some production now. If it’s not a frequent starting spot I’d prob take Inciarte. Thanks man, let’s hope I survive! Haha

  37. Bye Felicia says:
    (link)

    The lakers will regret passing on Oakfor bro. . Stupid Duhtoni curse

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Bye Felicia: Yeah I agree, I gave it a D as a draft grade haha

  38. DBo says:
    (link)

    Dynasty league trade advice, out of contention this year so would you prefer Matz or Wacha long term? Thanks in advance!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @DBo: Whoa good one! ya know, I think I will go Matz. More K upside, better division, slightly better ballpark, and further out from major injury issues compared to Wacha less than a year from that shoulder issue thing. Any time!

  39. Eric B says:
    (link)

    Well I streamed Graveman, last night, Magic Mike tonight, should I shoot for Vinny V as a streamer tomorrow? Any of those guys worth keeping vs streaming?Also If I were to try to move Chapoman to offset my loss of Giancarlo and Freeman what type/level of players would be realistic to target?

    5×5 HTH OBP
    Bats
    C McCann
    1B Y. Grandal
    2B Kipnis
    3B Santana
    SS Andrus
    OF M.Taylor
    OF Calhoun
    OF Springer
    OF Betts
    Util Pollock
    Util 2B/SS/3B Semien
    Util Avisail Garcia
    Bench Sano
    Bench Freeman(DL no room)
    DL Soler
    DL Stanton

    Staff
    P Kluber
    P Chavez
    P Cole
    P Salazar
    P T. Walker
    SP Ventura(DL no room)
    SP Bauer
    RP Chapman
    RP Britton
    Bench RP Perkins
    Bench RP Melancon
    Bench SP Montgomery
    DL Odorizzi

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Eric B: Oh shit you’re on fire! Mannnn I dunno if I’d want to cut Montgomery though! But I still like GRaveman over him long term, so yeah I think I stream one more and keep an eye on grabbing Graveman for the long haul.

      Ummm, right on the edge of top 50 would seem right, def looking for power and I’d like at the top 3-4 teams in the race and see who has the least saves. Could prob get a nice one

      • Eric B says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Well I could hold Montgomery and re-acquire Graveman but I’d probably have to drop M.Taylor of the Nats to do it. Whatcha think hold Taylor, drop Monty for Graveman or dump Taylor and add Graveman? In theory I should have Soler back soon and I could try to flip Chapman for a bat.

        • Eric B says:
          (link)

          @Eric B: JD Martinez, Brett Gardner, Machado, Cruz, Upton, Puig, maybe Ellsbury are some of the targets of the guys that could use saves the most. Any of those realistic for Chapman straight up?

          • goodfold2 says:
            (link)

            @Eric B: i’d move cruz for him, but i don’t believe much in cruz.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @goodfold2: Lot of Ks lately for Taylor, with little power now, yeah he could go. I think lose him for Graveman.

              Sure, yeah I might not Martinez or Gardner. Cruz could help power but is a tough one. Machado or Upton would be awesome, def worth an offer!

              • Eric B says:
                (link)

                @JB Gilpin: Thanks, no bites on Chapman it’s like no one wants to help me get better lol. The struggle of being in 1st…sigh.

                Taylor hasnt been much help the last few games, added him for R’s and OBP and he’s slacking off on me. But looks like Sano’s getting the call. Fingers crossed he comes in and produces to help me in the power department. Probably gonna drop Taylor for Graveman, makes sense to me…thanks for the help.

                So I know you pull for the Panthers, who’s your team in MLB and the NBA?

                • Eric B says:
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                  @Eric B: And today I lost Springer…so Springer, Freeman, Stanton, Soler, Ventura and Odorizzi…are you effing kidding me lol? The last 3 will be back soon and all are occupying active spots. Not sure what in the hell to do to try to remain in the playoff hunt…any suggestions?

                  • Eric B says:
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                    @Eric B: OK JB you’ve disappeared too much 4th festivity lol?

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @Eric B: Sorry man, was my bachelor party weekend! I did too much drinking to give good comments haha.

                      Nice on Sano! Showing some average early which is nice.

                      MLB = hardcore Brewers fan. From NC with no local team and no real family teams, I got into fantasy and all my favoprite guys started being brewers in high school. A tradition was born! NBA I am sorta a HOrnets fan again, I was die hard the first go around, and never got into the Bobcats…

                      Hah, yeah your team is like my buddy trying to get me in our long term dynasty. He lost Miggy/Stanton, etc. Well Soler is back, so that helps, Ventura or Odorizzi might need to be cuts to help fill out the lineup! Or trade maybe Freeman for something.

                      I’m back man, sorry about that!

  40. goodfold2 says:
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    i would think it’d be more than 11-12 more starts though, unless you think he’ll average over 6.83 innings per start, which is clearly a high number for a rookie after one start.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: also, i don’t get how you stick jofer that high when he’s just off TJ, something well known to often take minimum 14 months to get control back with, plus he hasn’t shown it yet. I’d make him show it over a start or two first (not saying if he looks good 20 is too high of course)

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @goodfold2: I didn’t really do the math, but actually I do buy 6-7 innings per so that seems realistic.

        Well these are ROS ranks, so while I agree some bumps are to be expected the first few starts, I think he’s got so much upside post-ASB that he’s warranted a very high rank. I’d be really surprised if he’s really shaky all the way until late Sept

        • goodfold2 says:
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          @JB Gilpin: i wasn’t claiming (nor do i have to) that he’d be shaky for an extended period (jofer), just saying that 20th is crazy high for a guy who’s yet to prove anything other than health coming off TJ. I’d agree he’d be that high (or higher) if he’s back to old Jofer, but that often takes 2-6 months from date of playing back from TJ, and certainly we have no evidence of that yet. Only thing we have is
          1. he’s healthy
          2. guys almost always take months coming off TJ to go back to what they were

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @goodfold2: 1. yup, and looks great. 2. “almost always”. I don’t think there’s a large enough sample of guys similar to JoFer to assume he’s going to be “2-6 months” to be any good

  41. goodfold2 says:
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    as an example, in a redraft, right now, who wouldn’t take any of salazar/pineda/stras (looking damn good like he’s healthy for the first time all year, don’t he) if they owned jofer.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @goodfold2: I might not… Salazar and Pineda have had some rough starts, and Strasburg has dealt with several injuries! All 4 have risks

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @JB Gilpin: yes, but you’d keep a guy who hasn’t even shown anything yet coming of TJ over those in a redraft! C’mon! Lots of times those guys take half a season to get their stuff back from the date they come back (waino last time, harvey so far this year as a couple of examples). Pineda just had a post about how his problem is all BABIP b.s. Salazar just came off great start, few K’s, but great. Pineda hasn’t been hurt yet and has ace numbers over season, other than ERA.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @goodfold2: Yeah I would, look at Strasburg back on the DL, Pineda has had rough games and Salazar isn’t 100% consistent yet either. Harvey has been fine too, given he had a lot of time off. And it’s not blind assumption he’s going to be as good as he was last year, or else he’d have to be top 10.

  42. Swfcdan says:
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    Montgomery’s gotta be the profile next week man, ridonkulous last two starts! Picked him up in my 16 team dynasty and he’s been golden in that league depth, you starting to buy him now? The first few starts coloured (in England we say colour not color!) me skeptical, but the K’s have really been there the past 2 utterly dominant performances. Funny thing about him is I had Monty on a farm team in a keeper a lonnnng time ago when he was a hotshot prospect, and he completely flamed out…so I guess he owes me this, thanks karma!

    Also what you make of Alex Wood? Dealt Casilla for him on Grey’s advice where I needed SPs and had a closer overload. He’s been off and on, this season, do you think he can go on a run now? That division is so shizzy apart from the Nats, he should have a lot of great matchups remaining (count QS+Ws too so at least he should get regular QS lol).

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Swfcdan: Hah, well I’m out until next Monday, but he’ll be on the radar! Annoying I had him ranked a couple weeks ago too, but then dropped him out before these last two ridiculous starts.

      Yeah throws slow, nice change-up, but admittedly I’ve only seen a few innings since his AAA start I saw last yr. A little flukey, but maybe there’s something here. Nice karma is helping you out!

      I’ve always liked Wood, his rough start was so weird, wasn’t getting any swings and misses. Ks are now up, walks down and I think he’s already been on a little bit of a run! I think he’ll be solid for sure

  43. los locos says:
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    Andrew Heaney look solid last night again…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @los locos: Yeah he did, which is weird since he was so bad in AAA. FB is up 1.3 MPH from last year, and I think is even more as Fangraphs hasn’t loded in speed from yesterday yet. He’ll probably make it in for the next re-ranks, but not go too high. Loved him last year and he really shat the bed

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @JB Gilpin: it’s likely he either loves irony or was just bored not being in MLB the way he’s looked in last 2 MLB starts. I’m guessing he has to go down though when weaver is back (apparently this is just after break). also his next start is @ COL, so i’m not batshit when i say it’s possible he gets 0-1 startable game before getting sent down again? or would they go 6 man, or would shoemaker go down?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @goodfold2: Hahaha maybe he just wanted out of MIA haha.

          I think the most likely is Heaney back down. Shoemaker could go to long relief though, I doubt they’d send him down. Shoe did some of the long relief early last yr

  44. Josh says:
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    Erasmo Ramirez.. What do you think of him? His peripherals on fangraphs seem nice.. No?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Josh: Yeah they do, and I think (??) I had him in a few weeks ago, if not I was about to put him in but he left early with that groin issue, and didn’t know the severity. He’ll certainly make it in next next week (off next Mon) if he stays healthy. Made some changes too, ditched the curveball, less sinkers, looks like it’s working

  45. Eric B says:
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    Well hell JB, congrats on the bachelor party and on getting hitched! I just celebrated my 18th anniversary June 27th, so I got a good head start on ya lol. Tied the knot at 23 and still happily married at 41 bro! That’s a pretty good reason to go AWOL! Now that you’re back, got a couple of questions for ya:

    I dropped Magic Mike for Gausman…good deal or nah? I like Mike’s numbers but I think Gausmans upside is much higher, at least that was my intial rationale lol almost added Parra but not sure what his playing time situation will end up being with Davis and Gomez returning.

    I also got tired of waiting on Andrus so I replaced him with Aybar who’s at least scoring runs, SS is so weak and there was only Aldreton, Miller, Alexi and Jace on the wire.Good move iyo?

    Next a guy offered me Cespedes for Chapman AND Bauer. I thought that was too much. Is Cespedes even worth Chapman alone? Much less with Bauer? Should I counter with Chapman and Chavez, Chapman alone or just pass all together?

    And speaking of Chavez should I have dropped him instead of Magic Mike, you think he’ll bounce back? I should get Odorizzi back Saturday and Ventura possibly as early as Thursday so dont think I should drop them now. Anyway, look forward to your response! As always roster is below…

    5×5 HTH OBP
    Bats
    C McCann
    1B Y. Grandal
    2B Kipnis
    3B Santana
    SS Aybar
    OF Melky
    OF Calhoun
    OF Soler
    OF Betts
    Util Pollock
    Util 2B/SS/3B Semien
    Util Avisail Garcia
    Bench Sano
    DL Freeman
    DL Springer
    DL Stanton

    Staff
    P Kluber
    P Chavez
    P Cole
    P Salazar
    P T. Walker
    SP Ventura (DL activated for Thursday)
    SP Bauer
    RP Chapman
    RP Britton
    Bench RP Perkins
    Bench RP Melancon
    Bench SP Gausman
    Bench Odorizzi(DL but should be back Saturday)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Eric B: Hah thanks man! Wow, 23 that’s pretty early, congrats to you guys!

      I def like it! Montgomery still kinda looks like smoke and mirrors to me, but we’ll see. I agree I like Gaus’s upside.

      Yeah Davis could hurt Parra, and he could get traded, which likely wouldn’t be an upgrade. But look out for my Brewers!

      Yup, all of those are streamable, so if Aybar goes cold, you can go to a different SS.

      Ummmm, I think the Cespedes offer was close. Not a huge fan, but you def need help. I would try and counter though, Britton+Bauer? I might go that way.

      Nah ROS I like Chavez over Mike.

      Congrats again to your longevity man! Haha

      • Eric B says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks man…for the kudos and the advice. If I did the deal, Ive got an open spot, what arm you filling it with Montgomery, Graveman, Bolsinger, Simon?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Eric B: Thanks for the congrats! I def gotta take Graveman there, yeah the Ks are a bit low, but I think long-term he and Montgomery and comparable and Graveman should be better in ERA/WHIP.

          • Eric B says:
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            OK JB, I have 2 offers for Cepesedes Chapman and Ventura or Chapman and Bauer? Like one better than the other or just stand pat?

            • Eric B says:
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              @Eric B: obviously I’m getting Cepesedes giving Chapman and an Arm.

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Eric B: I think I like the Ventura one better just because your DL situation even though he’s back this week. I just think he’s another injury away from another stint.

                I still think trying to counter with britton is what I’d do, just to see if he’s interested in going there. Either arm with britton for Cespedes would be a winner for me!

                • Eric B says:
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                  @JB Gilpin: You like Chapman more than Britton going forward? Britton has definitely put up more Saves and I was concerned Chapman could get moved…wasnt sure he’d stay the closer if so. Hadnt really considered Britton. I could likely offer any of my closers with an arm and he might bite, you like Britton the least out of Chapman, Melancon, Britton and Perkins?

                  Also Gausman didnt look so hot, may have to rethink him and add Graveman or Magic Mike. Tempted to not trade for Cepesedes and maybe stash Olibvera too.Thoughts?

                  • Eric B says:
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                    @Eric B: He’ll take Britton instead of Chapman but prefers Ventura to Bauer for Cepesedes….just need to help me understand why I’m better moving Britton than Chapman. Not doubting your advice JB, just trying to pick up what you’re laying down lol. And would you try to add Hoover incase Chapman does get moved as a stash or just roll with 3 closers in Melancon, Chapman and Perkins?

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @Eric B: Yeah I do, Britton has been awesome but I’d rather Chapman. If Chapman gets moved, he’s def closing still.

                      But no, def would rather move either of the other two first. Prob Melancon is my least fav.

                      Yeah Gausman was bad, back down, he can go… Sucks.

                      I dunno about Oliveria doing toooooo much this year. So crowded.

                      With Chapman, it’s that unreal K rate. I don’t think being 6 saves behind is that bad either between the two, and Chapman could easily catch back up. If he would take Melancon instead I would do that, but Britton is fine to move in that deal.

                      With your injury issues, I’d just roll with the 3 you have for now if the deal is made. Maybe if people come back sooner than later you can start stashin RP guys

  46. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    oh my god I finally read that 50 Interstellar plot holes article and you sir are a god. what a glorious, epic rant.

    some of my favorites:
    – “25. Well I think I’m going to struggle to get to 50, so I’m re-using one. At 1:48:57 the door is wide open to the farm house with dust friggin’ everywhere! And it’s a screen door too, the main door is wide open indicating it’s been open all day with the dust everywhere!

    – 28. Casey Affleck absolutely wrecks Topher Grace in the face, and Topher doesn’t have a mark to show for it.

    -38. TARS, the robotic nincompoop, has to explain to McConaughey what is going on as the “5th dimension beings” constructed the “3 dimension space”. If a robot has to explain the metaphsyical stuff going on, your screenplay is rubbish as the Brits would say.”

    magnificent. Loved the movie though

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @SheriffMcRawDawg: Hahahaha thanks so much man! It was fun putting it together, but dayum it took a long time! Stupid Interstellar!

      I can get why even with the issues a lot of people liked it. Usually if a movie looks fantastic and sounds fantastic, I can look over some stuff, but I think Nolan bit off more than even he could chew and it took me out of the movie. Oh well, here’s to hoping he gets back in stride next time!

  47. Eric B says:
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    Hey JB, thanks for the response. Shocker…ran out of room lol. I had rated my closers Chapman, Melancon, Britton and Perkins. Hed probably take any of them, with that being said you’d go Melancon over Perkins with Ventura for Cepesedes? May try to just add Gravemen if I open up the spot.

    Meant to mention before, unfortunately we dont share any team interests. I’m a die hard Braves fan in MLB(who actually likes the rebuilding plan and the international signings) and a Bulls fan in the NBA(who simply wants the team to all be healthy at the same time)…and well, we’ve already covered the Skins lol.

    • Eric B says:
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      @Eric B: Ended up moving Ventura and Perkins for Cesepedes…gonna add Graveman to fill my open spot assuming no one adds him before the trade finalizes. Thanks for the help, I was a little torn but hopefully it helps me more than it hurts me.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Eric B: Haha shocker indeed!

        Yup lovvvve the Melancon one, I know he’s been great but there’ve been some warning signs. I’d go Chapman, Britton, Perkins, Melancon if I had to rank them, but damn it’s nice having 4 top 10 guys!

        Nice range of teams there! Don’t mind any of them really, I love Jimmy Butler, and yeah if they’re all healthy it’ll challenge the Cavs.

        But I’m good with Perkins one too, nice! I think given your team needs/injuries, it’s a great move

        • Eric B says:
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          @JB Gilpin: Thanks man, almost went Melancon, felt like he and Perkins were similar,both low K guys . If Cepesedes performs like he’s capable, it’ll definitely help me with Freeman, Stanton and Springer out. As I get healthy I can always swing a trade for a closer or an arm as the playoffs approach…but it wont matter if I dont make them lol.

          • Eric B says:
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            @Eric B: What’s up with Chavez, hearing he was complaining about elbow discomfort after tonights lack luster start.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Eric B: Yeah they’re def close. I think they’re a slightly lower tier than Chapman/Britton. Love the move!

              Ugh I wish I knew man, he looked so good for a bit there. I didn’t hear the elbow thing, but he’s really bad in hitter’s parks too. In pitcher’s parks he’s been great. Maybe a matchups play…

              • Eric B says:
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                @JB Gilpin: Would you drop him for Motte? Just not sure Motte will stay the closer…what about moving Melky for Tyler Clippard…either of those options do anything for ya?

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Eric B: Oh yea def grabbing Motte. Ummmm, I’d probably do the Clippard one, but I think I’d rather grab motte for Chavez and that’s plenty of RP for ya.

                  • Eric B says:
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                    @JB Gilpin: Thanks, that’s what I did. not sure Motte actually holds on to the job but he’s worth a flier at the expense of Chavez. Havent heard anything else about an MRI, but even if healthy, doubt he gets snapped up in my league anytime soon.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @Eric B: Yeah I doubt it too… Nice stream option though if he’s out there in good matchups

  48. Eric B says:
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    Me again lol…whats going on with ya this Sunday morning JB? Waiting on a new rankings but in the meantime whats your thoughts on Nola? Worth adding at the expense of Montgomery or Graveman in anticipation of a call up? Neither Graveman or Magic Mike looked too good in their last outings, either worth holding on too? I dropped Chavez for Motte(and of course he’s gotten no action since lol) and Chavez was surprisingly scooped upin my league.I wonder if I should add Nola for Monty and say maybe a speculative add of Soriano in case Motte doesnt hold down the closer job? Jungman, Erasmo and Gausman(whos getting recalled after the break) are on the wire. Any of the aforementioned combos worth dropping Monty and Graveman for?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Eric B: Hah twas a day of Podcasting! And new wrokin on the ranks for tomorro!

      Meh, Nola I might take over Montgomery, but barely. Not Graveman. Yeah I’d hold the ol KG. So yeah sounds like we’re on the same page. I wouldn’t worry about stashing Soriano.

      Hmmmm, Erasmo has looked reallllly good. Rather him over Montgomery. And over Nola. I think he’s the add for me there, and would hold Motte.

      New ranks tomo!!! Sheesh, haven’t missed a week all year, it’s gonna have a lot of movers

  49. Eric B says:
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    Looking forward to it…Walker was pretty bad tonight too. Not a pretty week for my staff. Thanks for the advice, Ill be checking in tomorrow.

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