Geez, what is it about Steven Matz?!

The puns have been outpouring faster than illogical movies by Christopher Nolan.  Maybe it’s because he pitches for the Metz?  I don’t know!

I’ve been… well, naive to not rank Matz to this point.  Even with my standing concerns coming into his debut, he likely should’ve been ranked the last few weeks.  I thought it would be at least July until he was up, and I questioned how many innings he’d really get through in the Majors.  His peak is 140.2 IP last year across high-A and double-A, and he entered the Majors at 90.1 innings before yesterday’s debut.  Innings concerns are a big question mark after his career started with major elbow issues (TJ and complications).

And after that debut with 4 RBI at the plate, the mythical legend might be one of the biggest gaps from perception to reality.  Then again, I’m saying all this before breaking down his first start without seeing much of him beyond the numbers.  What Pitcher Profiles are all about!  You can’t know for sure on a guy until you really get a chance to see him pitch.  So without any more noodling, here’s how Matz looked in his debut:

First Inning: Matz’s first Major League pitch is a 96 MPH fastball way outside and to the backstop to Brandon Phillips.  Nervous nelly!  96 is then low, and the big lefty is rocky early on.  96 is inside, 3-0 to start.  95 is in there, then 95 right down the middle is rocketed to left center, it’s off the wall for a long single it was hit for so hard, but on review it hit the railing above the line and Matz’s career start opens with a leadoff homer.  Shocking since he gave up so few HR in the homer prone PCL.  Horrible at bat with no control, then two fastballs right down the middle.  So regrouping, Matz throws Joey Votto a first-pitch 80 MPH curveball and it drops in there for a strike.  Nice bounce back! But fastball is high, then Matz throws his best heater painting the outside corner at 96.  1-2 curve is low, then 95 on the hands eats him up for an easy groundout to second.  95 pounds the outside corner on Todd Frazier, then an 87 MPH change-up on the outside edge gets tipped back and absolutely fooled Frazier, 0-2.  Nasty pitch there.  Fastball high, 96 barely high, then a 78 MPH curveball gets Frazier to golf at it for an infield pop out to short.  Curve just outside to Jay Bruce, then a 96 MPH fastball gets Bruce to wave through with a horrific weak swing, 1-1:

Matz-fastball-1

Look how bad he’s fooled there!  96 up and in fouled back, 80 MPH curveball sweeps just low, 78 hangs high, then 96 MPH fastball is outside for a walk.  Man, Matz completely overpowered him, but he threw two curveballs and couldn’t get back in the zone, I didn’t like that AB.  Marlon Byrd fouls off a fastball, 95 is in, 95 again up and in is fouled back, curve breaks inside and is dribbled foul, then I think a change-up at 84 with some ridiculous downward break gets Byrd unable to hold his swing for Matz’s first career strikeout:

Matz-change-1

Second Inning: After a long 26 pitch inning, Matz needs some quickies and is in the zone at 95 to Brayan Pena, fastball again fouled back, then 94 high is chopped to second for an easy groundout.  93 way high and outside to Eugenio Suarez, then a big looping curveball at 76 breaks into the zone, 1-1.  Another looper is slashed foul, then a 95 MPH fastball is popped to shallow right for another easy out.  Pitcher Josh Smith takes 94 in there, 94 high is fouled back, then a 76 MPH fastball breaks into the zone for a K looking for indeed a quickie inning, nice stuff against the bottom of the order!

Third Inning: Well, here’s where the legend grows as Matz gives himself two runs of support with a 2 RBI double in the top of the inning.  So up 2-1 now, and Billy Hamilton bunts the first pitch and Matz makes the play for an easy one pitch out.  I guess as the Reds you hope to rattle Matz a little, but I don’t get giving up a one pitch out.  So back to the top and Phillips takes a curveball in the zone this time for strike one, another curve is fouled back, and after being behind 3-0 to Phillips to start the game, Matz is up 0-2 this time.  OK, and this is officially the moment I buy Matz.  Change-up, and Matz gets his revenge, just watch:

Matz-change-2

Wave goodbye!  96 is in there Votto, then another horrible weak swing from a Reds hitter, look at Votto wave through this 77 MPH curveball:

Matz-curveball

Nice sharp break at the end of that one.  95 is way high 1-2, curve is low, change-up is chopped foul, 95 high and a bit outside, 3-2.  This is the second time now where Matz completely overpowered someone and got to 0-2 to then fall to a full count.  But he makes this one count with a painting 95 MPH fastball to get Votto to strike out looking.  A little close, but I’d still like to see him go full attack.

Fourth Inning: Still a 2-1 game, Frazier takes a fastball in there, change-up on the outside edge is fouled off, 94 is way high, then 95 on the outside edge is ripped to left, and Frazier was able to extend his hands enough to get a homer.  The fastball was supposed to be in, but it leaked to the outside edge and got hammered.  Bruce takes a ball, then a curve drops in 1-1.  Curve is low, 96 is low, 3-1 fastball at 94 was likely too high but is chased and fouled back, then a curveball at 77 is way outside for another walk.  Attack, Matz!  Byrd then attacks himself, and hits the first pitch 94 MPH fastball into a lazy flyout to right.  One down and Pena takes 93 outside, a nice change-up at 83 drops in there, 91 is outside, then 94 on the outside edge is grounded right to Matz and the lanky lefty makes the turn for an easy double play, inning over.

Fifth Inning: At 62 pitches, Suarez gets sawed off a bit on the hands, but it flares into center for a leadoff single.  A little lucky, but his swing was ready for an inside fastball.  Then Smith bunts the first pitch for a good sacrifice, and two pitches and we’ve got runner at second with one out.  Hamilton takes a fastball high, a hanging curve stays outside, another is outside, fastball finally gets in the zone, 3-1.  95 on the outside edge is fouled back, 94 again out there popped out of play, and one more time out there and a little low is flied out to right for an easy out.  Two down, and Phillips swings out of his shoes on an 84 MPH change-up for strike one:

Matz-change-3

Bonus 5th GIF!  So nasty that Phillips re-tweaked his hand or wrist.  So Phillips is banged up, it’s time to attack, Matz!  Change-up is taken outside, and I hate that pitch.  Challenge his gimpy hand with power!  And there is the fastball at “only” 94 and he’s way behind on it.  Geez, I should be a catcher and call these games!  Then change-up again is popped up in the infield, it gets it done but another fastball would’ve gotten Matz another K, no question.

Sixth Inning: Now a 3-2 game, and Matz throws a high fastball to Votto, fastball then gets in there, change stays inside, curveball breaking into the zone gets Votto hacking through it, 2-2.  Votto didn’t give it a weak swing like that earlier GIF, but still got tied up.  Fastball flared foul, then a 75 MPH curveball gets Votto to fly it lazily to center for an easy out.  Votto dropped a very, VERY audible F bomb after hitting that one!  Frazier slashes a first pitch fastball foul, change-up at 86 gets him out in front to fly it foul, change-up again is outside, change yet again outside, fastball on the hands fouled back, then a 77 MPH curveball that stayed inside and broke in gets a swing and miss for another K.  Then a first pitch curveball at 77 gets Bruce to fly out lazily to left for a very quick inning.

Seventh Inning: And the legend continues, with Matz picking up 2 more RBI for the well-publicized 4 RBI debut.  But we don’t care about that!  We only want pitching, Matz is now up 6-2, and Byrd rips a 94 MPH fastball right past third for a leadoff single on the first pitch.  95 is in there to Pena, then a 94 MPH fastball is ripped to Wilmer Flores at second and he just misses it on a dive for back-to-back singles.  Both were hit hard, but both were a foot or two from being outs.  Curveball drops in to Suarez, change is low, change again is inside, fastball at 94 perfectly paints the low inside corner, 2-2.  Might have been low.  Then a 95 MPH fastball is chopped perfectly to short for a tailor-made double play.  Lordy the Reds bottom of the order is awful.  First-pitch curve is in there to pinch-hitter Jason Bourgeois, fastball at 96 paints the outside corner for a nasty 0-2 count, 95 is slashed foul, then 95 again barely high out of the zone gets a swing and miss for his 6th K.

Eighth Inning: At 100 pitches, I’m shocked to see Matz back out there, but he gets 95 in there to Hamilton, Hamilton whiffs at 96 outside, 95 is just inside, then 95 on the outside edge is inside-outed to first for an easy first out.  The replacement for Phillips is Ivan De Jesus who hits the first pitch fastball pretty well to center, but it wasn’t the toughest catch to get the second out.  Matz blows Votto away on the inside edge at 96, 95 is outside, 95 again is outside, curve stays high, then a fastball is just inside for a two-out walk.  Matz will come out, but the legend is born.

Final Line:  W  7.2 IP  110 Pitches (72 Strikes)  2 ER  5 Hits  3 Walks  6 K  Gamescore: 64   Gamescore+: 65.6

Final Analysis: Monster start, and with the historic 4 RBIs I think this could be the ultimate sell-high in redraft leagues.  Almost all of his in-play outs were pretty weakly hit, so I’m not surprised in the least to see his Gamescore+ come out higher than his Gamescore.

As with most buzzy young guns, it all starts with a power fastball.  Reaching 96 several times, it very very rarely fell out of the 94-96 range.  Matz has a very smooth delivery with the heater, which makes it jump up on hitters.  His main off-speed is a curveball, that had some nice sharp movement and he was able to throw it for strikes.  I wish he was able to use it more in a swing-and-miss fashion – instead it broke more laterally and got misses while dancing in the zone.  Then there’s my real eye-opener – a dominating change-up.  Most young pitchers don’t have a change-up that can stay consistent, but man oh man – Matz’s change was a thing of beauty.  It was so good I broke my 4 GIF rule!  With that pitch as developed as it is, it kept the Reds off balance all night long.

So with virtually rave reviews from everyone – and now me included – why is Matz only 50 for me rest of season?  All boils down to innings.  As I mentioned in the open, Matz’s 140.2 innings was his peak last year, and I would be really shocked if the Mets allow him to go over 180.  He missed his first three years after being drafted with elbow issues, and the Mets have shown they like to handle pitchers cautiously.  I also think the Mets fall further out of the race with that horrific offense.  With that 180 innings in mind, Matz has now thrown 98 this year.  That’s 82 remaining, so maybe 11-12 starts left?  It’s possible he pitches through the end of the year if they skip some starts, but I don’t know if he’s going to push into the top 30s of value ROS with fewer innings.  And one final bit of cold water – that Reds line-up was atrocious yesterday.

In dynasty leagues though, it’s a whole new ball game.  I was blown away by that change-up, and looking at my ranks, I think he’s an easy top-20 guy.  His future is easily ace-worthy.  But building from that valuation and this awesome debut, I think you could get a fortune right now in redraft leagues.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, Team
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Max Scherzer, WAS
3 Chris Sale, CWS
4 Felix Hernandez, SEA
5 Corey Kluber, CLE
6 Madison Bumgarner, SF
7 David Price, DET
8 Gerrit Cole, PIT
9 Zack Greinke, LAD
10 Cole Hamels, PHI
11 Matt Harvey, NYM
12 Chris Archer, TB
13 Jake Arrieta, CHC
14 Jacob deGrom, NYM
15 Sonny Gray, OAK
16 Johnny Cueto, CIN
17 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
18 James Shields, SD
19 Francisco Liriano, PIT
20 Jose Fernandez, MIA
21 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
22 Jon Lester, CHC
23 Michael Wacha, STL
24 Michael Pineda, NYY
25 Garrett Richards, LAA
26 Danny Salazar, CLE
27 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
28 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
29 Jeff Samardzija, CWS
30 Jason Hammel, CHC
31 Carlos Martinez, STL
32 Taijuan Walker, SEA
33 Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
34 Tyson Ross, SD
35 Alex Wood, ATL
36 Scott Kazmir, OAK
37 Trevor Bauer, CLE
38 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
39 Shelby Miller, ATL
40 A.J. Burnett, PIT
41 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
42 Lance McCullers, HOU
43 Jesse Chavez, OAK
44 John Lackey, STL
45 Julio Teheran, ATL
46 Mat Latos, MIA
47 Lance Lynn, STL
48 Clay Buchholz, BOS
49 Collin McHugh, HOU
50 Steven Matz, NYM
51 Jose Quintana, CWS
52 Andrew Cashner, SD
53 Mike Fiers, MIL
54 Vincent Velasquez, HOU
55 Carlos Rodon, CWS
56 Jake Odorizzi, TB
57 Jesse Hahn, OAK
58 Patrick Corbin, ARI
59 Yordano Ventura, KC
60 Drew Hutchison, TOR
61 Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
62 Chase Anderson, ARI
63 Anibal Sanchez, DET
64 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
65 Trevor May, MIN
66 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
67 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
68 Jaime Garcia, STL
69 Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL
70 Edinson Volquez, KC
71 Phil Hughes, MIN
72 J.A. Happ, SEA
73 Kevin Gausman, BAL
74 Ian Kennedy, SD
75 Wei-Yin Chen, BAL
76 Chris Heston, SF
77 Ervin Santana, MIN
78 Alfredo Simon, DET
79 Matt Moore, TB
80 Joe Blanton, KC
81 Kendall Graveman, OAK
82 Marco Estrada, TOR
83 Justin Verlander, DET
84 Nate Karns, TB
85 Dan Haren, MIA
86 Mike Leake, CIN
87 Jake Peavy, SF
88 Hector Santiago, LAA
89 C.J. Wilson, LAA
90 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
91 Joe Ross, WAS
92 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
93 Aaron Sanchez, TOR (oops! will fix next week)
94 Aaron Harang, PHI
95 Bartolo Colon, NYM
96 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
97 Matt Shoemaker, LAA
98 Danny Duffy, KC
99 Yovani Gallardo, TEX
100 Kyle Gibson, MIN

Dropped Out: Tim Lincecum, SF (was only barely in anyway – awful/injured), Mike Foltynewicz, ATL (more below), Mike Bolsinger, LAD (never made it further than the 90s, figured it would end), Chi Chi Gonzalez, TEX (I don’t think made it past 97, so the same…), Rick Porcello, BOS (barely bounced in, he’s just been so hittable.)

  • Yikes, the grumpy old man in me is more stubborn than Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino.  “Get off my lawn!”  Clayton Kershaw is still going to edge out Max Scherzer for me ROS, but it’s splitting microscopic hairs.
  • All this elbow stuff from Johnny Cueto is now starting to give me the heebie jeebies.  I know he throws in a bad park, but with a wonky elbow and if he’s traded to the AL…  Eesh.
  • Mmmmm it’s about to be Jose Fernandez Thursday!  I’m anointing it a national holiday.
  • Really pumped for Patrick Corbin coming off the TJ as well.  It’s been a little bit of a rocky rehab road (a fun Ben & Jerry’s flavor), and you might bench him his first few starts, but I’m excited.
  • For extended thoughts on why you did a double-take on Joe Blanton, check out today’s Podcast.  I’d have him even higher if he was for-sure in the rotation ROS!
  • Ugh, stupid former Brewers doing well…  Yovani Gallardo I still can’t fully believe in, and same for Marco Estrada.  But both have shown enough to make it in.  Estrada’s change-up is the only good pitch either has, so he gets a slight boost.
  • Mike Foltynewicz has walked 4 in each of his two AAA starts since being sent down.  Yikes.

Am I too low on Matz ROS?  And what do you think of the rest of the top 100?  Shoot your thoughts below!

Also, I will be out next week, so the Profile will return the following Monday, July 13.  See you then, Razzball Nation!

 

173 Comments
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Eric B
Eric B
7 years ago

Looking forward to it…Walker was pretty bad tonight too. Not a pretty week for my staff. Thanks for the advice, Ill be checking in tomorrow.

Eric B
Eric B
7 years ago

Me again lol…whats going on with ya this Sunday morning JB? Waiting on a new rankings but in the meantime whats your thoughts on Nola? Worth adding at the expense of Montgomery or Graveman in anticipation of a call up? Neither Graveman or Magic Mike looked too good in their last outings, either worth holding on too? I dropped Chavez for Motte(and of course he’s gotten no action since lol) and Chavez was surprisingly scooped upin my league.I wonder if I should add Nola for Monty and say maybe a speculative add of Soriano in case Motte doesnt hold down the closer job? Jungman, Erasmo and Gausman(whos getting recalled after the break) are on the wire. Any of the aforementioned combos worth dropping Monty and Graveman for?

Eric B
Eric B
7 years ago

Hey JB, thanks for the response. Shocker…ran out of room lol. I had rated my closers Chapman, Melancon, Britton and Perkins. Hed probably take any of them, with that being said you’d go Melancon over Perkins with Ventura for Cepesedes? May try to just add Gravemen if I open up the spot.

Meant to mention before, unfortunately we dont share any team interests. I’m a die hard Braves fan in MLB(who actually likes the rebuilding plan and the international signings) and a Bulls fan in the NBA(who simply wants the team to all be healthy at the same time)…and well, we’ve already covered the Skins lol.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: Ended up moving Ventura and Perkins for Cesepedes…gonna add Graveman to fill my open spot assuming no one adds him before the trade finalizes. Thanks for the help, I was a little torn but hopefully it helps me more than it hurts me.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thanks man, almost went Melancon, felt like he and Perkins were similar,both low K guys . If Cepesedes performs like he’s capable, it’ll definitely help me with Freeman, Stanton and Springer out. As I get healthy I can always swing a trade for a closer or an arm as the playoffs approach…but it wont matter if I dont make them lol.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: What’s up with Chavez, hearing he was complaining about elbow discomfort after tonights lack luster start.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Would you drop him for Motte? Just not sure Motte will stay the closer…what about moving Melky for Tyler Clippard…either of those options do anything for ya?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thanks, that’s what I did. not sure Motte actually holds on to the job but he’s worth a flier at the expense of Chavez. Havent heard anything else about an MRI, but even if healthy, doubt he gets snapped up in my league anytime soon.

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
7 years ago

oh my god I finally read that 50 Interstellar plot holes article and you sir are a god. what a glorious, epic rant.

some of my favorites:
– “25. Well I think I’m going to struggle to get to 50, so I’m re-using one. At 1:48:57 the door is wide open to the farm house with dust friggin’ everywhere! And it’s a screen door too, the main door is wide open indicating it’s been open all day with the dust everywhere!

– 28. Casey Affleck absolutely wrecks Topher Grace in the face, and Topher doesn’t have a mark to show for it.

-38. TARS, the robotic nincompoop, has to explain to McConaughey what is going on as the “5th dimension beings” constructed the “3 dimension space”. If a robot has to explain the metaphsyical stuff going on, your screenplay is rubbish as the Brits would say.”

magnificent. Loved the movie though

Eric B
Eric B
7 years ago

Well hell JB, congrats on the bachelor party and on getting hitched! I just celebrated my 18th anniversary June 27th, so I got a good head start on ya lol. Tied the knot at 23 and still happily married at 41 bro! That’s a pretty good reason to go AWOL! Now that you’re back, got a couple of questions for ya:

I dropped Magic Mike for Gausman…good deal or nah? I like Mike’s numbers but I think Gausmans upside is much higher, at least that was my intial rationale lol almost added Parra but not sure what his playing time situation will end up being with Davis and Gomez returning.

I also got tired of waiting on Andrus so I replaced him with Aybar who’s at least scoring runs, SS is so weak and there was only Aldreton, Miller, Alexi and Jace on the wire.Good move iyo?

Next a guy offered me Cespedes for Chapman AND Bauer. I thought that was too much. Is Cespedes even worth Chapman alone? Much less with Bauer? Should I counter with Chapman and Chavez, Chapman alone or just pass all together?

And speaking of Chavez should I have dropped him instead of Magic Mike, you think he’ll bounce back? I should get Odorizzi back Saturday and Ventura possibly as early as Thursday so dont think I should drop them now. Anyway, look forward to your response! As always roster is below…

5×5 HTH OBP
Bats
C McCann
1B Y. Grandal
2B Kipnis
3B Santana
SS Aybar
OF Melky
OF Calhoun
OF Soler
OF Betts
Util Pollock
Util 2B/SS/3B Semien
Util Avisail Garcia
Bench Sano
DL Freeman
DL Springer
DL Stanton

Staff
P Kluber
P Chavez
P Cole
P Salazar
P T. Walker
SP Ventura (DL activated for Thursday)
SP Bauer
RP Chapman
RP Britton
Bench RP Perkins
Bench RP Melancon
Bench SP Gausman
Bench Odorizzi(DL but should be back Saturday)

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thanks man…for the kudos and the advice. If I did the deal, Ive got an open spot, what arm you filling it with Montgomery, Graveman, Bolsinger, Simon?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

OK JB, I have 2 offers for Cepesedes Chapman and Ventura or Chapman and Bauer? Like one better than the other or just stand pat?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: obviously I’m getting Cepesedes giving Chapman and an Arm.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: You like Chapman more than Britton going forward? Britton has definitely put up more Saves and I was concerned Chapman could get moved…wasnt sure he’d stay the closer if so. Hadnt really considered Britton. I could likely offer any of my closers with an arm and he might bite, you like Britton the least out of Chapman, Melancon, Britton and Perkins?

Also Gausman didnt look so hot, may have to rethink him and add Graveman or Magic Mike. Tempted to not trade for Cepesedes and maybe stash Olibvera too.Thoughts?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: He’ll take Britton instead of Chapman but prefers Ventura to Bauer for Cepesedes….just need to help me understand why I’m better moving Britton than Chapman. Not doubting your advice JB, just trying to pick up what you’re laying down lol. And would you try to add Hoover incase Chapman does get moved as a stash or just roll with 3 closers in Melancon, Chapman and Perkins?

Josh
Josh
7 years ago

Erasmo Ramirez.. What do you think of him? His peripherals on fangraphs seem nice.. No?

los locos
los locos
7 years ago

Andrew Heaney look solid last night again…

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: it’s likely he either loves irony or was just bored not being in MLB the way he’s looked in last 2 MLB starts. I’m guessing he has to go down though when weaver is back (apparently this is just after break). also his next start is @ COL, so i’m not batshit when i say it’s possible he gets 0-1 startable game before getting sent down again? or would they go 6 man, or would shoemaker go down?

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
7 years ago

Montgomery’s gotta be the profile next week man, ridonkulous last two starts! Picked him up in my 16 team dynasty and he’s been golden in that league depth, you starting to buy him now? The first few starts coloured (in England we say colour not color!) me skeptical, but the K’s have really been there the past 2 utterly dominant performances. Funny thing about him is I had Monty on a farm team in a keeper a lonnnng time ago when he was a hotshot prospect, and he completely flamed out…so I guess he owes me this, thanks karma!

Also what you make of Alex Wood? Dealt Casilla for him on Grey’s advice where I needed SPs and had a closer overload. He’s been off and on, this season, do you think he can go on a run now? That division is so shizzy apart from the Nats, he should have a lot of great matchups remaining (count QS+Ws too so at least he should get regular QS lol).

goodfold2
goodfold2
7 years ago

as an example, in a redraft, right now, who wouldn’t take any of salazar/pineda/stras (looking damn good like he’s healthy for the first time all year, don’t he) if they owned jofer.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: yes, but you’d keep a guy who hasn’t even shown anything yet coming of TJ over those in a redraft! C’mon! Lots of times those guys take half a season to get their stuff back from the date they come back (waino last time, harvey so far this year as a couple of examples). Pineda just had a post about how his problem is all BABIP b.s. Salazar just came off great start, few K’s, but great. Pineda hasn’t been hurt yet and has ace numbers over season, other than ERA.

goodfold2
goodfold2
7 years ago

i would think it’d be more than 11-12 more starts though, unless you think he’ll average over 6.83 innings per start, which is clearly a high number for a rookie after one start.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
7 years ago

@goodfold2: also, i don’t get how you stick jofer that high when he’s just off TJ, something well known to often take minimum 14 months to get control back with, plus he hasn’t shown it yet. I’d make him show it over a start or two first (not saying if he looks good 20 is too high of course)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: i wasn’t claiming (nor do i have to) that he’d be shaky for an extended period (jofer), just saying that 20th is crazy high for a guy who’s yet to prove anything other than health coming off TJ. I’d agree he’d be that high (or higher) if he’s back to old Jofer, but that often takes 2-6 months from date of playing back from TJ, and certainly we have no evidence of that yet. Only thing we have is
1. he’s healthy
2. guys almost always take months coming off TJ to go back to what they were

Eric B
Eric B
7 years ago

Well I streamed Graveman, last night, Magic Mike tonight, should I shoot for Vinny V as a streamer tomorrow? Any of those guys worth keeping vs streaming?Also If I were to try to move Chapoman to offset my loss of Giancarlo and Freeman what type/level of players would be realistic to target?

5×5 HTH OBP
Bats
C McCann
1B Y. Grandal
2B Kipnis
3B Santana
SS Andrus
OF M.Taylor
OF Calhoun
OF Springer
OF Betts
Util Pollock
Util 2B/SS/3B Semien
Util Avisail Garcia
Bench Sano
Bench Freeman(DL no room)
DL Soler
DL Stanton

Staff
P Kluber
P Chavez
P Cole
P Salazar
P T. Walker
SP Ventura(DL no room)
SP Bauer
RP Chapman
RP Britton
Bench RP Perkins
Bench RP Melancon
Bench SP Montgomery
DL Odorizzi

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Well I could hold Montgomery and re-acquire Graveman but I’d probably have to drop M.Taylor of the Nats to do it. Whatcha think hold Taylor, drop Monty for Graveman or dump Taylor and add Graveman? In theory I should have Soler back soon and I could try to flip Chapman for a bat.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: JD Martinez, Brett Gardner, Machado, Cruz, Upton, Puig, maybe Ellsbury are some of the targets of the guys that could use saves the most. Any of those realistic for Chapman straight up?

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: i’d move cruz for him, but i don’t believe much in cruz.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thanks, no bites on Chapman it’s like no one wants to help me get better lol. The struggle of being in 1st…sigh.

Taylor hasnt been much help the last few games, added him for R’s and OBP and he’s slacking off on me. But looks like Sano’s getting the call. Fingers crossed he comes in and produces to help me in the power department. Probably gonna drop Taylor for Graveman, makes sense to me…thanks for the help.

So I know you pull for the Panthers, who’s your team in MLB and the NBA?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: And today I lost Springer…so Springer, Freeman, Stanton, Soler, Ventura and Odorizzi…are you effing kidding me lol? The last 3 will be back soon and all are occupying active spots. Not sure what in the hell to do to try to remain in the playoff hunt…any suggestions?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: OK JB you’ve disappeared too much 4th festivity lol?

DBo
DBo
7 years ago

Dynasty league trade advice, out of contention this year so would you prefer Matz or Wacha long term? Thanks in advance!

Bye Felicia
Bye Felicia
7 years ago

The lakers will regret passing on Oakfor bro. . Stupid Duhtoni curse

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
7 years ago

what’s up jbizzle!

ROS – rank Estrada, Velasquez, Santana, Desclafani

*I could also keep any of them next year in the 25th round

Thanks!

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: thanks man – and switching gears – would you drop Rajai davis for Ender Inciarte? in a deeper league? should I do that like 5 minutes ago?

have fun on the bach trip man

Holden
Holden
7 years ago

I think you guys are missing the boat on Bolsinger. ERA, fip, xFIP all stellar. Good K rate and plays on a good team.

Five-On-One
Five-On-One
7 years ago

Hi JB – Love the analysis. Not a Mets fan, and think the 6-man rotation will limit Matz’s starts (and value), but he looked great, and I wish I had him on any of my teams. Can I bother you for some advice in a 12-team 5×5 weekly move league?

1-start Fiers @CIN (SON value $17.1)
1-start Zimmermann vSF ($9.0)
1-start McHugh @BOS (-$13)
1-start Kennedy 2STL (-$1.4)
1-start Hutchison @DET (-$0.4)
2-start Fister @ATL (-$2.9), vCIN (-$0.8)
2-start BAnderson @AZ (-$8.5), vPHI ($22.8)
2-start Garza @PHI ($1.8), vATL ($0.1)
2-start Porcello @TOR (-$3.4), vMIA ($8.9)

Probably starting Fiers and Zimmermann. That leaves room for 1 or 2 others. I liked Fister, but then saw his SON Values, and SON is pretty good. Then Anderson’s schizo week jumped out at me. Do I dare roll the dice with him? Or is Garza against 2 week offenses the way to go? If you could rank them and give me your thoughts I would be grateful.

Squidblob
Squidblob
7 years ago

Dang, I just traded for Lance Lynn- thought he slotted more in the Jordan Zimmerman thru Scott Kazmir range- you have any concerns about Lynn?

Funscombe
Funscombe
7 years ago

Great stuff as always! Thanks for the analysis :)

I’m in a 10 man head to head leave, keep 8

My pitching staff right now is

Kershaw
Bumgarner
Cueto
Lester
Matz
E. Rodriguez

Have Jose Fernandez this Thursday, and also have Corbin stashed.

Are you razzballers starting E rod against Toronto tomorrow? I have a bad feeling.

Also,

I recently dumped Tehrahn, and he’s been an FA for two weeks or so. Grab him for the Phillies start?

If so, I gotta make a drop- either Erod or an outfielder

(A. Gordon, Billy Burns, JD Martinez, Pederson, or the likely candidate; Cameron Maybin).

So do I start Erod? Do I pick up Teheran again, and if so, do I swap him for Maybin or Erod?

Thanks for helping me out of my predicament guys <3

And thanks again for the great work!

Robert
Robert
7 years ago

Cole Hamels was dropped by am impatient owner. Who do I drop for Hamels? Ross,
McCullers, Matz

Carnac
Carnac
7 years ago

Btw, happy bachelors’ week(end) my man… Congrats. Careful while you’re at the game or you might get tapped for the Phils’ front office. That place sounds kinda like Mad Mad: Fury Road. Or maybe Jurassic World.

Who Dat Ninja!
Who Dat Ninja!
7 years ago

ROS Estrada or Tyson Ross?

JJ
JJ
7 years ago

How close to the top 100 do you have Fister?

greg
greg
7 years ago

So you like Chavez over Fiers?

I have Moore on the DL. I have Kluber, Archer, DeGrom, CMart, Matz, JoeFer, JChavez, and Bucholz. Let Moore go, I am imagining?

Thanks

Hern
Hern
7 years ago

Would you drop ERod or Anderson for Bauer or Buehrle? Possibly both?

malamoney
malamoney
7 years ago

Great stuff as always JB!

Would you trade Strasburg and Pollock for Bumgarner? Points league where top pitchers are a premium as they score more points than hitters. Right now Scherzer leads pitchers with 461. Keuchel has 413. Goldschmidt leads hitters with 324. Then Harper with 286.

I have managed over the seasons acquire Felix, Greinke, Strasburg and recently added Hamels and Cole. Love my staff. We only start 4, so each week I have to sit one of these guys. That’s been Strasburg lately for obvious reasons, but after his past 2 outings, he isn’t quite the obvious sit anymore. Thoughts?

Tom
Tom
7 years ago

Hey man!

In a weekly lock/ h2h pts league which pitcher are you taking a gamble on & streaming for this week: Kendall Graveman, Ryan Vogelsong or Marco Estrada. Estrada’s start vs the Tigers scares me!

Graveman (vs Rockies & hale, start 2 is vs King Felix both in OAK)

Vogelsong’s two recent starts looked very solid (this week @ Miami & latos, start 2 is @ DC & Jordan zimmermann, both on the road.)

Estrada (vs Red Sox & Eduardo Rodriquez , start 2 @ Detroit & verlander.)

Mike leake (vs twins & pelfrey, start 2 is vs Brewers & jungmann)

royce!
royce!
7 years ago

Metz is a really great band and I hope that they acquire many more fans due to this serendipitous moment in time.

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: pretty much new jesus lizard, they kick ass.

Oranje
Oranje
7 years ago

I think I have asked everyone this question, maybe even asked you last week…would you trade Archer for Machado? I am worried about making the deal. Evidenced by me asking 4 people for their opinion. Should I be?

Oranje
Oranje
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thanks. I have a bounty of SPs: Arrieta, Greinke, Hamels, Kluber, Lester, Liriano and Archer. I currently only start one RP cuz saves are inconsistent and I am never sure who to bench. Problem is that Freeman, Rendon and mi amor Giancarlo are on the DL. My current 3b is Moose-tacos. Regardless of all that I am doubtful.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Oranje
7 years ago

@Oranje: with 7 top 30 guys hell yeah. how did you even draft that while still having an offense? greinke/hamels/kluber/lester were all pre 100 drafted ADP guys, arrieta too probably. great value on the other 2.

Carnac
Carnac
7 years ago

Nice write up and analysis, JB. Nice ‘cast this week, too. If I had to pick one… ugh, I can’t! It’s a Sophie’s Choice.

With the Mets’ adoption of a 6 man rotation, I went to my calendar to see where that puts Matz ROS with 11-12 more starts. My very rough verdict: mid-September-ish. That’s IF the Mets keep a 6 man rotation. Which I kind of doubt. But they probably should.

Carnac
Carnac
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

Well the Mets already proved they could make a 6 man rotation work for almost 10 days earlier this season. I see no reason they don’t stick with it until the All Star Break.

Jake Taylor
Jake Taylor
7 years ago

JB

Is Archer on a limitings limit?

Carnac
Carnac
Reply to  Jake Taylor
7 years ago

Archer had 195 IP last year, so probably not very limited this year.

Carnac
Carnac
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

Since you asked, there are two things that do secretly annoy my inner pedant about dialect of baseball:

1) Calling a % of an IP “.1” or “.2” – who decided it was cool to change a fraction to an incorrect decimal??

2) RBIs. Come on, baseball. Like Attorneys General, it should obviously be RsBI.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Carnac
7 years ago

@Carnac: i’ve always fixed that math illiterate b.s. by just doing 11.66 or 43.33 and such. funny that the most math driven sport was set up by people that probably couldn’t do their taxes (i.e. simple).

SDB
SDB
7 years ago

JB!

Thanks again. This is the article I most look forward to each week @ Razzball

Here’s my deal. I’ve got the worst pitching and the best hitting in my league. I’m suffering a lot of 7-7 , 8-6, 6-8 type outcomes in a 14 category league. An upgrade at pitching would do my team well. Here’s my top SPs:

M.Tanaka
G.Richards
A.Wood
J.Chavez
L.McCullers
C.Bucholtz

I’ve been offered Carrasco, Matz, and Kinsler for Encarnacion. It feels like not enough, or too risky on how much return I’ll get out of Kinsler and Matz. What do you think?

I’ve been considering counter-offering Encarnacion for Carrasco and Hamels. Any thoughts?

Thanks in advance!

Michael
Michael
7 years ago

Why no Brett Anderson? I feel like he has pitched well enough to be around the 70’s.

Zeus
Zeus
7 years ago

So you wouldn’t do a Votto for Cueto in an ObP league?

Zeus
Zeus
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: that’s kind of the case I am in first in all offensive categories and let in era and whip.

Scott
Scott
7 years ago

Weekly league. I’m thinking of starting the risky Rodriguez (he gets two this week, albeit Toronto and Houston).

Are any of the below worth benching to get Rodriguez’ two starts in my lineup?

Tyson Ross @ STL
Jeff Samardzija v. BAL

Scott
Scott
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin:

Thanks! I’ll let Ross roll then.

Gonzo_The_Great
Gonzo_The_Great
7 years ago

JB- I look forward to this column all week. Great work as always.

The curious case of Joe Blanton is fascinating. Here’s a guy who was getting dangerously close to “Too Fat To Pitch” territory in his last years with the Phillies and the Angels and who is now having a quite the little career resurgence. Will be interesting to see how he shakes out.

Any thoughts on McHugh’s last two starts? Peripherals still aren’t as great as last year, but nice to see his luck breaking his way for a change.

MRegan
MRegan
7 years ago

Aaron Sanchez, the pitcher so nice, you rated him twice!

Ships
Ships
7 years ago

Hi JB, love your work. Your rankings have been my waiver pickup bible.

I need to add SPs and only have 10 transactions left for ROS, so I need to be selective.

My Staff is Cole, Carrasco, Pineda, Bucholz, Chavez, Matz, Chen, C Anderson, Happ, Velazquez, Graveman. It’s a weekly H2H using QS instead of Wins. I have Seigrist who I am dropping.

On the wire are Nelson, Hendricks, Harang, Gausman, E Santana. Could you rank ROS please. Does anyone stand out from this Motley Crew? Would you drop any of my current staff for any on the wire? I have no hitters on my bench and could keep what I have and flip Seigrist for a bench bat.

Appreciate your feedback!

Eric B
Eric B
7 years ago

Still no Magic Mike Montgomery? I figured he would be on par with Graveman. I’m at work now but I’ll be checking back in later.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Well I streamed Hutchinson yesterday in my last spot(that went well although I lost my match up 4-6 for the week). I’m streaming Graveman today…think Graveman is worth holding on to for his 2nd start this week, drop him to re-acquire Vinny V or just keep streaming like I’m binge watching Daredevil on Netflix lol?

As we discussed in last weeks post, injuries are killing me! I’m still in 1st but my lead is down to 6 games with only 4 playoff spots available. Roster is below:
5×5 HTH OBP
Bats
C McCann
1B Y. Grandal
2B Kipnis
3B Santana
SS Andrus
OF M.Taylor
OF Calhoun
OF Springer
OF Betts
Util Pollock
Util 2B/SS/3B Semien
Util Avisail Garcia
Bench Sano
Bench Freeman(DL no room)
DL Soler
DL Stanton

Staff
P Kluber
P Chavez
P Cole
P Salazar
P T. Walker
SP Ventura(DL no room)
SP Bauer
RP Chapman
RP Britton
Bench RP Perkins
Bench RP Melancon
Bench SP Graveman
DL Odorizzi

Still struggling to get production at SS Jace Peterson and Aldreton Simmons are on the wirebut are either better options than Andrus ROS? Not much in power other than Singelton out there and he still has to show he can hit. Odor has shown some pop and speed but I have Kipnis and Semien backs up 2nd, 3rd and SS. Taylor is the first man out if I make an add, like anyone over him?

On the pitching side I mentioned above I could re-acquire Vinny, keep Graveman or keep streaming while I wait for Ventura and Odorizzi to get back. Gonna try to sneak Paxton back on my DL when I get a spot since he’s making some small steps.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Yeah I was struggling with dropping Taylor for Odor, but I’m gonna try to practice patience lol. If Graveman digs himself one, you taking Vinny or Magic Mike to stream this week?

SS is the bane of my existence I should have just scooped up Correa when I had the chance but I tried to wait too long, had Russell earlier but flipped him for Salazaar and Calhoun, cant say I regret that. Kept hoping Alexi would heat up but it just aint happening, Simmons and Jace go from hot to cold anytime I try to add them so Im stuck with Elvis and Semien as we speak.

Soler and Ventura are occupying active spots for me so I’m going to have to drop people for Odorizzi and Freeman when they return and eventually Stanton…still in mourning over his hammate injury…sob.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thanks as always JB…maybe we’ll get a chance to meet up in Nov…Hail to The Redskins lol!

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: lol…now be a good lil kitty.

Fastpitch
Fastpitch
Reply to  Eric B
7 years ago

@Eric B: Drop Soler.

los locos
los locos
7 years ago

JB,

Nice column as usual.

Need one starter for this week. Weekly league, QS, K/9

I own Fiers, the others are on waivers. If I pick one up, need to drop either Bauer or Heaney.

Fiers @Cin
Hendrick NYN @Mia
Kennedy SEA @StL
Heaney NYA
Bolsinger @ARI, NYN

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
7 years ago

JB!!!

Thanks a million, again, man! You rock! Fantastic anaylsis. Especially loved the Votto and Phillips GIFs!! Can’t believe that they are MLB professionals but it must be the power of his pitches. Votto is from my home town, went to a high school about a mile from where we lived but (reversal) never saw him or knew him and he must be really good or dedicated to make at the MLB level as a Canadian.

Am starting Graveman in 3/4 leagues this week. Wish me luck. Figure that I have to try something slightly different. I have some ground to make up in 2 leagues (have been suffering from injuries to CGomez, Odorizzi, Rendon (twice), Stanton, etc., then inefficiency with Cashner (he’s gone) and Ross (he’s turned it around.)).

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Of course, man! best of luck with blanton and especially cody anderson tonight. hopefully blanton can get a little deeper into the game than last time out but he looked good from what I saw (pitch selection and location).

Cheers,
Ante

Colonel Angus
Colonel Angus
7 years ago

I got offered Todd Frazier for Mad Bum. What should I do?

Colonel Angus
Colonel Angus
Reply to  Colonel Angus
7 years ago

@Colonel Angus: I also got offered a package of Matz, Syndergaard and Bruce for Mad Bum.

Colonel Angus
Colonel Angus
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: It’s a 12 team mixed dynasty league. My other pitchers are David Price, James Shields, Carlos Rodon & Francisco Liriano. My 1B is Chris Davis.

JimmyBond
JimmyBond
7 years ago

Gotta make a drop to make way for JFer coming off the DL. Latos or ERodriguez? Latter got pasted his week but Latos inconsistent too, and I have doubts about Marlins offense in a Stanton-less void. This in a redraft league where I prob won’t have room to keep Erod with Matz, JFer, Carrasco, McCullers, etc

Speaking of marlins when will Ozuna wake up? Is he drop worthy?

John
John
7 years ago

I’m in a 12 team redraft with all NY owners. Pitching is stretched thin in the league but was lucky enough to stash Matz. League is QS, Ks, and K/9. Would you prefer having him or trade to acquire someone more established like say Quintana or a Gio Gonzalez? Or even reach for someone in the 30-40 range.

I have Chase Anderson bringing up the rear of my rotation. Is he worth a hold over Corbin or De La Rosa? I had De la Rosa during his rough patch but he is pitching lights out and his strikeout numbers are the best my waiver wire has to offer.

I appreciate the help.

John
John
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

I shit you not, two days after I dropped him to chase saves with McGee, he started going on the tear. I had him for three terrible starts and now I’ve watched him string together three great starts!

Chris
Chris
7 years ago

The mets bias in me is saying he is number 3! after Harvey and Syndergaard! All joking aside i think a few more starts (i hope i should say) we see him in the Taijuan Walker range.

I own Keuchel and I have been pretty apprehensive about him, slotting him in every matchup but just waiting for the shellacking to happen. How many good starts left till we all can think he’s a top 10 ROS though?

Chris
Chris
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: I’m only in a 10 team H2H where i have him (and my rotation dirty *humble brag* with Sale, Keuchel, DeGrom, Archer and a streamer). I got him as a FA because of the Sale situation first week of the season. thank the lord for that!

peter quill
peter quill
7 years ago

JB this is not good, you are not putting cold water on my Matz induced boner. Thinking 2016 season and beyond… would you move Tyson Ross now for future Matz?

Steve Stevenson
Steve Stevenson
7 years ago

Love these profiles. Do you have any IP concerns for Taijuan or McCullers? Thinking of dropping Ventura for one of them in a limited moves H2H, but it’s only worthwhile if they’re around for the playoffs.

Steve Stevenson
Steve Stevenson
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Yeah I’m eventually losing Ventura for someone, it’s just a matter of whether I do it now for ROS value, wait until I have a need, or hold the move until the playoffs so I can burn it on a 2-starter with good matchups or hot schmotato or something.

Clint
Clint
7 years ago

Don’t worry about Yo Yo Ma and Poncharillo doing well elsewhere, JB. I like them both too but we Brewer fans know that when the bottom falls out, the highs they took you to were not worth it.

On another Brewer note, I heard the Yankees’ youngster Aaron Judge compared to Richie Sexson. And I was just starting to get interested in snatching him up too!

Grey
Admin
7 years ago

Wait, what, what what — I loved Interstellar!

Relsh
Relsh
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: It’s an easy film to criticize for those reasons. As a visual/emotional piece of art it was stunning. Guess it depends what you want to appreciate it for. I understand why Nolan gets a lot of flack given the popularity of his movies, not sure why people became so polarized on this one in particular though.

L-Boogie
L-Boogie
Reply to  JB Gilpin
7 years ago

@JB Gilpin: I enjoyed the movie but yeah, plot holes, man. Worst of all…(MAJOR SPOILER ALERT, FOLKS) How could “future humans” put the wormhole there for the “past humans” to figure out how to save the planet? If they didn’t figure it out the first time around, the planet would be destroyed and there would be no future humans to put the wormhole there. How did the future humans get to be in the future?!?!?