So I’m watching Raiders of the Lost Ark with my dad and following Tanner Roark strike out 15 Saturday afternoon, and all primed to write my “Raiders of the Lost Roark” pitcher profile.  But then I was like, “Ya know what?!  I already wrote on Joe Ross and the Nationals don’t need ANY MORE press!  I’m not writing two of my first three 2016 profiles on Nats, get outta here!”

Option B: An argument I had with myself the other day: “Is Robbie Ray really that different than Carlos Rodon?”  Think about it – both are lefties with mid-90s heat, plus off-speed pitchers, and are near unhittable.  But they’re also two of the most frustrating pitchers to own with their control issues.  So why would I love Rodon and bank on him figuring it out in my ranks and not have similar optimism for the also young (just turned 24) Ray?  Mayyyyyyybe I shouldn’t broadcast to ALL of Razzball Nation my inner monologues… “What was that dream last night about?  I think I was taking off my clothes in Miller Park with – – – -”  Yeah, bad idea.

With Ray one of my two decent SP in REL, I decided to megalomaniacally (made up word?!) take the pitcher profile to Arizona and break down how Ray looked again the Pirates yesterday afternoon:

First Inning: Ray’s first pitch is a 93 MPH fastball outside to Jordy Mercer interestingly leading off (I guess vs. a lefty thing), 92 MPH is in there, first slider bends low 2-1, but 94 MPH on the outside edge gets a ball lifted to right and it’s caught a step into foul territory for a quick first out.  Great start.  Ray misses with a fastball to Andrew McCutchen, 94 is poured right in there 1-1, off-speed is spiked in the dirt, 94 on the outside edge is fouled back, then slider at 85 snaps out of the zone and gets a swinging K on Cutch, two down.

Robbie-Ray-Slider-1Nice stuff right there!  Follows it up with 93 in the zone to David Freese 0-1, then 94 again out there just blows him away, 0-2.

Robbie-Ray-Fastball-1Man, this is what I was talking about in the open!  Just great stuff when harnessed.  Fastball at 94 again fouled back, again fastball tipped foul, high slider bends in high, but slider again at 85 MPH hangs in the zone and Freese hammers it to deep left center for a double off the wall.  Freese had to kinda reach for it and one-hand it, so thankfully it stayed in the park.  So after the two out double Ray is high and outside to Starling Marte with the fastball, 93 is outside, and ruh roh – 2-0 count.  Attack Robbie, attack!  Ugh, 91 MPH is outside, then 91 again wayyyy outside and hopefully that was more of the “intentional, unintentional walk” than anything else.  Runners at first and second and the recently called up Jason Rogers takes a slider low for ball one, 91 MPH is high, and yeesh the control AND velocity have disappeared and out comes pitching coach Mike Butcher to try and settle him in.  2-0 is a 90 MPH fastball in the zone – nice to see a strike but he really took some off that pitch to get it in there – 91 MPH gets a foul back, 92 is high and tight, 93 on the hands is fouled back, 93 again in the zone is fouled away, then Ray finally goes off-speed and the slider is called low but the pitch tracker had it nipping the bottom of the zone.  Two quick outs and now bases loaded with Ray low with the fastball to Sean Rodriguez, 92 is in there 1-1, 85 MPH slider catches the bottom of the zone in almost the same spot as that 4th ball to Rogers and called a strike this time 1-2, slider again gets a very close call on a check swing but Rodriguez holds up, 2-2 fastball fouled off, then a slider gets dribbled to third for a routine groundout and Ray gets out of the mess and mercifully out of a 33 pitch opening inning.

Second Inning: Au Shizz goes solo job and gets Ray a 1-0 lead, and Ray is in there with a strike one fastball, slider down gets a whiff, then slider one more time at 85 MPH strikes out Gregory Polanco on three pitches.  While awesome, Polanco is red hot against righties but still looks a little lost against lefties.  First pitch slider gets in there to catcher Chris Stewart, fastball nips the outside edge, and 5 consecutive strikes.  Love it.  93 climbs the ladder 1-2, slider spikes into the dirt, then 92 again on the outer third is taken by Stewart for back-to-back Ks.  Opposing pitcher Francisco Liriano pops up the first pitch fastball just inches over the protective screen for a foul ball, Liriano takes a slider all the way and it bends in the zone 0-2, then slider again gets rolled over to first for a routine grounder, and Paul Goldschmidt friggin’ Buckner’s it!!!!!!  What in the world?!  Is this Ryan Howard fielding?!??!  Last thing we need is more pitches for Ray – on a really bad error at that – and of course it’s ball one to Mercer going back to the top.  Ugh!  92 is in there, 91 probably off the outside edge is reached out and poked foul 1-2, 93 is well high, 2-2 fastball at 92 looked really close but called a smidge low, then 93 MPH in the zone is hit well through the gap on the left side of the infield for a single.  Thanks Goldschmidt.  So runners at first and second, 50 pitches already no thanks to the error, and slider that looked to bend in the top of the zone is called a ball, maybe inside to Cutch 1-0, 92 is outside, and another inning with a meeting at the mound with Wellington Castillo coming out.  Fastball is in there 2-1, and another heater in the zone gets a whiff, Ray battling back 2-2.  Fastball again fouled away, then a nassssssty slider at 83 MPH gets Cutch to whiff and gets Ray out of the inning, striking out the side.

Robbie-Ray-Slider-2Third Inning: Still a 1-0 lead but a massive 56 pitches already and Ray misses for ball one to Freese, then a slider that kinda rolled to the outside edge is inside-outed to right for a leadoff ground-rule double.  Ray stays offspeed but drops in a strike to Marte 0-1, then slider again is pounded to center for a hard hit single.  Freese is held at third, so no outs, runners on the corners. 92 barely misses the inside edge to Rogers 1-0, 92 high and away is chased and missed 1-1, then a high fastball is tomahawked to left, and it’s an easy double with some questionable fielding around the wall for a 2-RBI triple.  It’s Rogers’ first hit as a Pirate, and a big one.  Yasmany Tomas bumbled his way towards it, and crashed into the side wall as the ball was rolling away with reckless abandon.  A good LF out there might have A – made the catch or B – been able to hold Rogers to a double without pinballing around back there.  A nice slider almost gets a Rodriguez swing but he holds up, slider again is low 2-0, and this isn’t looking good at all.  93 MPH fastball is poured in there 2-1, then with the infield in a fastball is hit hard to right where a SS would naturally be, but it’s past an outreaching Nick Ahmed for an RBI single.  67 pitches, and still only 6 outs.  Yuck.  But they’ll leave Ray in to face Polanco, who squibs the first pitch to third for an easy groundout.  Fastball is wayyyy high to Stewart, fastball barely misses the outside black, 91 is high, 3-0.  Ouch.  91 is in there, then a high 90 MPH fastball is flied to right for a routine out, two down.  Rodriguez tagged to third, so two down and runner at third and Liriano swings over a first-pitch slider 0-1, slider again catches the outside edge as it sweeps across 0-2, slider again in the dirt, 1-2.  A lot of respect for a pretty good hitting pitcher there, going 3 straight sliders to Liriano…  Then a 92 MPH fastball paints the outside edge to get Ray out of the inning with his 5th K.

Fourth Inning: Beef Wellington!  3-run homer from Wellington Castillo and it spots Ray a 4-3 lead and Ray spots a fastball in the zone to Mercer, 0-1.  Maybe he can get through two quick innings and sneak in a win.  Fastball again – but at 89 MPH – is in there 0-2, then 88 MPH – slow fastball again – is hit just over Jean Segura at second for a single.

Robbie-Ray-Fastball-2So much for that.  Man, what is this velo drop?!  Ray misses to Cutch, then goes to that slider which McCutchen can’t figure out and gets a big whiff, 1-1.  Then slider again is blocked by Castillo, it barely gets out of his reach but Mercer makes it to second.  Then Ray going slider all the way and Cutch hits it pretty well to short, but it’s off of Ahmed’s glove for a single to left.  Ruled a hit and rightfully so, but Ahmed could’ve made that play.  And just like that, Ray is out of the game with two men left on (both would score, but an error would save him one of the ER) and it wraps up Ray’s worst start on the year.

Final Line:  ND  3.0 IP  84 Pitches (52 Strikes)  4 ER  8 Hits  2 Walks  5 K  Gamescore: 28  Gamescore+: 37.6

Final Analysis: Sweet Baby Jesus! Man, that wasn’t fun.  I wrote up this profile live as Ray pitched, and had I known it would be such a downer I would’ve maybe stuck with Roark.  Stupid Nats!  Not surprisingly, the Gamescore+ came out much more favorably in a short outing with more Ks than innings pitched as Gamescore+ favors Ks and has no additional lean to pitchers going deep into games like standard Gamescores.

Ray’s arsenal all starts with a fastball, that I thought was a pretty consistent 93-95 last year.  And for the most part in other starts of his I watched this season, it’s been hovering in that range.  But for some reason yesterday, he really struggled to keep up the velocity, especially in that 3rd inning dropping under 90.  Fangraphs had average velocity at 92.0 MPH after 93.7 the last start in his great outing at the Giants.  Game-to-game disparity can happen, so let’s just hope this was a minor bump.  Then the big pitch is that slider – got McCutchen on two swinging Ks, had consistent bite, and he could get some over for called strikes.  While Fangraphs lists out slider and curveballs, I couldn’t tell a huge difference between the two, so let’s just say his breaking ball looked good.  He also mixed in a couple change-ups that weren’t  discernible from mini-sliders.  Probably not the best thing, but not the worst either as everything had movement.

Whew, I don’t really know what to do here.  I think I’m keeping Ray right where I had him, at the 60-70 range ROS.  A guy you’re certainly not holding in RCLs with rampant SP streaming, but 12 team leagues with deep enough benches and non-stringent IP rules, I could see holding on.  The fastball velocity has been good most of the year and was fine early, so I’m hoping it will bounce back just fine.  Plus that Goldy error made him throw 10 or so extra pitches, which could have completely changed this outing.

Moving forward, I would caution using him against a line-up flush with good righties.  He utterly dominated Polanco with a 3-pitch strikeout and a 1-pitch dribbler to get him out.  Lefties are hitting all of .097 against him this year, while righties are hitting a concerning .317.  His next start is at home hosting the Rockies, who have several solid lefties (given a few would likely be platooned).  It’s a risky start – I wouldn’t stream him in a hard starts-cap like in RCLs – but I hesitantly think he bounces back in that one.

Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Jake Arrieta, CHC
3 Chris Sale, CWS
4 Max Scherzer, WAS
5 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
6 Jose Fernandez, MIA
7 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
8 David Price, BOS
9 Madison Bumgarner, SF
10 Corey Kluber, CLE
11 Gerrit Cole, PIT
12 Matt Harvey, NYM
13 Chris Archer, TB
14 Jon Lester, CHC
15 Felix Hernandez, SEA
16 Zack Greinke, ARI
17 Jacob deGrom, NYM
18 Carlos Martinez, STL
19 Danny Salazar, CLE
20 Carlos Rodon, CWS
21 Cole Hamels, TEX
22 Joe Ross, WAS
23 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
24 Raisel Iglesias, CIN
25 Drew Smyly, TB
26 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
27 Jeff Samardzija, SF
28 Patrick Corbin, ARI
29 Taijuan Walker, SEA
30 Johnny Cueto, SF
31 Sonny Gray, OAK
32 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
33 Vincent Velasquez, PHI
34 Francisco Liriano, PIT
35 Yordano Ventura, KC
36 Jason Hammel, CHC
37 Ian Kennedy, KC
38 Steven Matz, NYM
39 Michael Wacha, STL
40 Garrett Richards, LAA
41 Marcus Stroman, TOR
42 Luis Severino, NYY
43 Justin Verlander, DET
44 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
45 Jose Quintana, CWS
46 Michael Pineda, NYY
47 Wei-Yin Chen, MIA
48 Jake Odorizzi, TB
49 Jordan Zimmermann, DET
50 Kenta Maeda, LAD
51 Juan Nicasio, PIT
52 Adam Wainwright, STL
53 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
54 Mike Fiers, HOU
55 James Shields, SD
56 John Lackey, STL
57 Andrew Cashner, SD
58 Aaron Nola, PHI
59 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
60 Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
61 Yu Darvish, TEX
62 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
63 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
64 Jaime Garcia, STL
65 Robbie Ray, ARI
66 Jerad Eickhoff, PHI
67 Matt Moore, TB
68 Rich Hill, OAK
69 Adam Conley, MIA
70 Tanner Roark, WAS
71 Drew Pomeranz, SD
72 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
73 Collin McHugh, HOU
74 Lance McCullers, HOU
75 Julio Teheran, ATL
76 Tyler Glasnow, PIT
77 Edinson Volquez, KC
78 Tyson Ross, SD
79 Kevin Gausman, BAL
80 Nate Karns, SEA
81 Scott Kazmir, LAD
82 Blake Snell, TB
83 Ervin Santana, MIN
84 Jose Berrios, MIN
85 Shelby Miller, ARI
86 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
87 J.A. Happ, TOR
88 Mike Leake, STL
89 Derek Holland, TEX
90 Jon Niese, PIT
91 Hector Santiago, LAA
92 Josh Tomlin, CLE
93 Rick Porcello, BOS
94 Mat Latos, CWS
95 Marco Estrada, TOR
96 Lucas Giolito, WAS
97 Jake Peavy, SF
98 Shane Greene, DET
99 Sean Manaea, OAK
100 Chris Tillman, BAL

Dropped Out: Bud Norris, ATL (yeah that dart throw didn’t work), Taylor Jungmann, MIL (just looks terrible, only throwing 2 pitches, velo down), Kris Medlen, KC, Brandon Finnegan, CIN

  • I don’t know what is happening to Francisco Liriano…  Three straight bad starts, but interestingly all on the road.  Just needs to get back to Pittsburgh to turn this around!
  • Ugh, rough break for Carlos Carrasco owners as he’s to the DL with a pretty bad looking hammy injury.  He wasn’t the only pitcher to pick up a hammy, as Charlie Morton who was about to crack my ranks also pulled his over the weekend.  Super deep leaguers – Morton is throwing 95 MPH sinkers out of nowhere!  But we’ll have to wait and see how he looks when he gets back before I bring him in the ranks like I was going to.
  • Nice bump for Drew Smyly, who is pitching way too well to ignore.  Sure, there’s still some concern with that shoulder, but he’s cruising right now.
  • Trending down for Justin Verlander (ugh, my bad) and Adam Wainwright (had him way lower than consensus, so you’re welcome!) as those two vets look cooked.  Verlander is off a 10 K game, but yeesh did you see that Indians line-up?!  5 Ks were Mike Napoli and Yan Gomes, both of whom can’t touch righties, and those were your #4 and #5 hitters.  Although, it was nice seeing his best velo thus far…  Nice job yelling at the fantasy community for not drafting you high enough, Waino!
  • I know, I know, Kenta Maeda is the best pitcher import this side of Yu Darvish, but I still don’t think his stuff is other-wordly.  He’s pitched against 4 different teams, and the first time against the Rockies at Coors having a good start I don’t think exalts you as a Cy contender.  I’ve maintained every step of the way I think he starts hot then has a rough second half.
  • Nice debut for Blake Snell, but as I cautioned in a few comments, it was indeed a spot start.  However, he remains in the ranks as he’s only one injury away.
  • Turns out I was right to bounce Tyson Ross well out of the must-own range.  You’re welcome, Razzball Nation!
  • I’m not going too crazy for Tanner Roark – relies heavily on fastballs that average 91.4 MPH right now – but 15 Ks can’t be ignored.  Plus from a few brief highlights I saw, it looked like his two-seamer had some ridiculous movement.  Just what the Nats desperately needed, more pitching…
  • Also a nice rise for Drew Pomeranz, who admittedly was a bit of an oversight as I thought he was heading into the Padres bullpen all Spring.  I still worry about his fastball/curveball combo since that’s all he throws, but it’s working right now.

Thoughts on Sweet Baby Jesus Ray?  And what do you think of this week’s updated ranks?  As always, shoot your thoughts below, and let me know what ranks make this list invalidated due to my lunacy.  Invalidated I say!

156 Comments
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Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
6 years ago

Hey JB! Not sure if you still check these this late in the week, but would love to hear your thoughts on JoFern. Hoping there’s a buy low opportunity to pair my JUpton (obp league and that stabilizing 40% k-rate and nonexistent BB rate is not going to be pretty even when he comes back to his norm) and a high #2 SP-type for him…

Any big concerns about him or just dusting off the rust? I see jofern’s walks are up but he’s still got the ks and elite fip…

Eli Man Penguin Boy
Eli Man Penguin Boy
6 years ago

wasn’t just you, depth charts had pom at RP almost till season start date, my guess is SD themselves didn’t know till about 4 days before season. as bad as their bullpen is they weren’t wrong thinking they needed help down there either.

TheTinDoor
TheTinDoor
6 years ago

Just want to continue to point out, for the 4th consecutive week, the lunacy of ranking Samardzija over Cueto when:
1) Samardzija has NEVER been better than Cueto in any year of their careers
2) Cueto is YOUNGER
3) They are playing in the same park w/ same defense

I’m sure you’re a nice guy but I will continue to post this every week highlighting this craziness until it’s fixed…

TheTinDoor
TheTinDoor
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Fair, didn’t realize you had replied to previous posts. I went back and read, looks like your main reasoning is injury concern (Cueto elbow + Samardzija ‘fresher’), and also Cueto’s K-rate.

The latter one is easy – while Cueto historically isn’t a STUD in k-rate, he’s been better than Samardzija for two consecutive full seasons, and has been better for the first month this year. You have to go back to 2013 (when Cueto was hurt) to find a year when Shark beat him in K-rate. Last year Shark was under 7 per 9 (and just barely above that in 2016) – that’s way below fantasy-league average.

Re: injury, it’s true Cueto has more mileage on his arm. We still don’t have a good way to quantify injury risk, and it seems like you’re mostly just saying “I think he’ll get hurt”. It may happen, but Cueto has 450 IP over the last 2 years without any problems, so…

Unless we get a more specific sense that Cueto actually has elevated injury risk, I’m going to take a career of on-field results (including this year) that say he’s significantly better than Shark.

Erik
Erik
6 years ago

I was thinking about which pitcher to sit for a start this week (I am allowed 9 starts, but have 10 on the roster). Julio Teheran at Chicago Cubs looks pretty bad. Carlos Rodon at Baltimore isn’t looking great either, but I am thinking Teheran at Chicago is far worse. Anyone disagree?

Eric B
Eric B
6 years ago

Shocker…we ran out of room above lol. So Manaea just got the call from the A’s, he’s a big time prospect but I’m not sure I have anyone to drop for him lol.What are your thoughts on him? Also lets say I wanted to stash Trea Turner in the coming week or so, who on my roster do you find to be the most “droppable” ?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  Eric B
6 years ago

@Eric B: Berrios not having quite the debut I had hoped for…thoughts?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: I know the roster reduction that was approved prior to the season has added a new angle to the league, but I keep being a day late and a dollar short, had Myers, dropped him for pitching, hes been hot, when i had him he just struck out lol. Couldve gotten Parra but Berrios came up, probably should have gotten Parra in hindsight….but that ship has sailed. Thinking of just dropping Berrios and stashing Trea and waiting for him to come up. Only other wire options are Tomas and DL guys like Choo and Enciarte.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thanks for the advice…always appreciate your take JB.

Greg
Greg
6 years ago

JB, hope you are still checking this….

I have too many pitchers! You still believe in Stroman? When Darvish and Boxberger come off the DL, I got no-one to drop. :(

Who would you keep? Madbum, SGray, SMatz, CRodon, MStroman, JRoss, JBerrios (just grabbed), VVelasquez, KGausman….DL Darvish/Box

Only got one bench batter, but it’s Jarrod Dyson and Sano….Guess I could drop Dyson…..but sheesh….C: Realmuto, 1b: Freeman, 2b: LoganF, SS: Segura, 3b: Franco (Sano), OF: JUP, Betts, Cargo UT: Dyson

9 Men on grass
9 Men on grass
6 years ago

Great stuff as always!! I just took over a 10 team points league team. Wainright ,Stroman and Verlander are 3 of my 9 pitchers. Joe ross and Mats are available. Whould you drop 2 of the 3 for those 2? Who would be your choices? Thanks!

Eric
Eric
6 years ago

Hi JB, love your work. I am in a salary cap/points league and basically ignored pitching to load up on hitters. Strategy is to replace them with the low-salary rookie call-ups. Multiple teams can own the same player, so no issues rushing to the ww. Who would you drop in favor of Berrios?

Cody Anderson
Alex Colome (qualifies as a starter)
Adam Conley
Shane Greene

I also have Moore, Sanchez (Tor), & Velasquez. But they are a cut Above the others.

joe
joe
6 years ago

Great work as usual. I live by these rankings, but am surprised by Maeda. If he’s a good version of Iwakuma, or even just Iwakuma in his good years, isn’t that top 30ish?

If you knew Manaea was pitching tonight and would stick, where would you have him ranked? I have Gerrit Cole, Hamels, Joe Ross, Velasquez, Maeda, Nola, Shields, and Yu marinating on my DL, would you drop any of them for Manaea? It is a QS instead of W league if that matters.

Glasnow – I live in the burgh and follow the Bucs pretty closely. I just don’t see a call up any time soon. He has been pretty inefficient, which leaves our absurdly cheap management and owner a good excuse to keep him down for super 2. Super 2 matters for the Bucs probably more than winning. He hasn’t made it past 5 innings and racked up pretty good pitch totals in each game. I would kill for him to come up and be what we all hope he can, but I’m not sure he’s breaking down the door to get the call.

Thanks man.

joe
joe
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Saw this when I woke up this morning. Better way to start the day than an old fashioned from the Mrs. You got me jones’n for some glasnow now. Too bad Locke didn’t pitch himself out of the rotation Monday night.

Thanks for the thoughts on Maeda. I essentially drafted two good starters early on each of my teams then waited on Ross, Nola, Velasquez and Maeda. I have those 4 on every team and I am completely lost on what to do with Maeda. I have tried selling high in the 15 to 25 starter range and no bites, I haven’t been able to move him for a bat, and I think I would rather hold than trade for say 3o to 40 pitcher just in case this isn’t just teams struggling the first time they see him.

Scott
Scott
6 years ago

Hi JB. Aren’t Hammel and Hendricks pretty much the same? What are the differences that cause their ranks to be so far apart?

Mcgaffer
Mcgaffer
6 years ago

Pitching guru JB-in need of your counsel

Blockbuster offer…maybe
Current lineup-
Sal Perez
Freeman
Altuve
Desmond
Donaldson
Trout/CarGom/Crush Davis
Staff seems a little thin-
Arrieta/Salazar/Rodon/Cashner/Lackey/Fiers/Wood/Chen

Been offered Kershaw/Rasmus for Crush/Salazar….

Do I pull the trigger or should I cool it and have enough arms to survive?

Mcgaffer
Mcgaffer
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin:

It’s a head to head sort of roto type thing, we accrue you head to head weekly record against your opponents over 23 weeks

I could probably have Grichuk or Jay Bruce as the add in as well.

Mcgaffer
Mcgaffer
Reply to  Mcgaffer
6 years ago

@Mcgaffer:

as opposed to Rasumus

Puigy Smalls
Puigy Smalls
6 years ago

Enjoyed the read. A couple quick overreaction trade options in wake of Carrasco injury:

1) cano for price

2) cano for archer

3) prefer trade 1 or 2?

4) hold and stream pitchers for a month

I’m not that high on cano, but if I trade cano his replacement would come in the form of j Baez or j schoop most likely…

scott steelers
scott steelers
6 years ago

Thinking Manaea gets the call friday?

Moscowitz
Moscowitz
6 years ago

Great stuff JB, thanks. Question:
12 teamer, h2h, with only 42 moves left for ROS.

I have Sanchez, Nola, Matz, Rodon, Salazar, Joe Ross, Hamels, Severino, Smyly. I have an upsidy bunch but i feel good about them. Now Kennedy, Hammel and Santiago are on the wire but as i said, i have been hesitant to change anything because i feel good about that current group. What do YOU think? Kennedy is a notorious flyball pitcher in the AL, i dont trust him to keep this up. Hammel is pitching way over his head and his xFIP suggests a heavy decline is in the cards. Santiago? Well he is simply pitching well. Would you make any changes?

Moscowitz
Moscowitz
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Hammels peripherals suggest a real heavy decline though (xFIP over 4.00). Thanks for your opinion JB but i guess i will stay put. I also have to remember my moves are limited so a change really has to be significant to be justified and i dont see any significant gain by adding Hammel and dropping Nola.

Jedimasters
Jedimasters
6 years ago

JB great read and always look forward to your pitcher profiles. In a 10 team points league where pitchers score the most points including 50 for a win I thought Kazmir was a sleeper on a Dodgers team that competes for a division. Smyly is the only under top 30 pitcher on the waivers. Do I drop Kazmir for him? TB offense is meh.

Tigerzz
Tigerzz
6 years ago

which side do you like in a dynasty? both teams looking to win now and in the next couple of years.

Polanco/Benintendi
or
Pollock/Kemp

Tigerzz
Tigerzz
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin:

thank you for the response. when I declined, he asked about a straight swap of pollock and polanco? do you like this? it is an ops league.

Chris
Chris
6 years ago

Thanks JB!
I have Rodon and Ray. I asked Grey this question also wanted to see what you thought.

I am down this week 11-7 starts. 14 team league 5×5 h2h roto.
My Staff: Minus Carassco
Corbin
Rodon
Matz
Eickoff
Gio
Liraino
Steven Wright

RP Street RP Lowe

I could go Fiers or Ray and get the extra start or keep lowe in as the RP and hope for saves.
Also would you go Fiers or Ray over Steven Wright. Wright is at Atl

Thanks!

Hugman
Hugman
6 years ago

Would you start Pomeranz in SF? Streamy hates this start. I rarely go against Streamy and come out unscathed.

Hugman
Hugman
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Haha, I went for it. Archer saved my era, but my whip got blown up again.

Gareth
Gareth
6 years ago

While I’m waiting 10 hours for a response to one of my questions, I like to reflect and feel grateful and appreciative of Grey and his uncannily fast answers.

Gareth
Gareth
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Just being sarcastic. Thanks for the intel. I appreciate your pitching expertise.

Dusty Baker
Dusty Baker
6 years ago

Do I drop Nicasio for Roarke ? How long does one wait for Sheilds to turn things around? ——-Good write up – Thanks for your input. ——– DB

Dusty Baker
Dusty Baker
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: normally would have posted a question on your article, but the Baby Ray’s caught my attention. Gots ta show some love

Greg
Greg
6 years ago

Which rookie pitcher, all highly touted, does best this year and 2) Which one is first called up?

Berrios , Glasnow, Manea, Giolito, Taillson (sp?) (Pirates), or other?

Best DL stash, HBailey, ZWheeler, or other?

Thanks.

Greg
Greg
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin:

Yup….I got Darvish….and I have to make a two-fer or three-fer cuz I have Bum, SGray, Stroman, Matz, Rodon, Gausman, VVelasquez, JRoss, KRod, TRose, AChapman on my staff….and full lineup with only one bench player, Realmuto, Freeman, Forsythe, Segura, Franco, Betts, JUp, Cargo, Dyson or Sano at UT.

I know it’s hard to believe, but this is 14 team league, Yahoo, 5×5. Draft just worked out well, and just traded SCastro/KHendricks for MadBum.

malamoney
malamoney
6 years ago

Manaea cracks the top 100! That’s what I’m talking about. Great work as usual. You have Glasnow ranked higher than Berrios. Does that mean you think he’s a better pitcher or that he will have more of an MLB impact in 2016? Or both?

The rise of Stephen Strasburg is happening before our very own eyes. That damn 3-run homer to Dozier was his only mistake on Sunday…

Steve
Steve
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: what about Taillon? His stuff looks legit.

Primetime
Primetime
6 years ago

Chen was dropped and if available on waivers today. Like his starts vs la and mil? Would need to drop either gausman or odorrizzi.

10 team keeper
Kershaw
Strausburg
Salazar
Hammel
Odorrizzi

Bench
Berrios
Gausman
Pineda

Other notables on waivers
Pomeranz

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
6 years ago

Ugh David Price, then Joe Ross’ injury! I couldn’t believe the Rays getting to him like that, haven’t seen enough yet but have heard his velocity is down this year, you not worried? I think he’ll be ok but lesser velocity for a fastball heavy guy in the east won’t lead to ace numbers like in the past. Maybe the innings are starting to catch up with him, am trying to sell fast in my dynasty based on name value!

Just picked up Ray for that start and yeah couldn’t understand how he’d started so well based on that! Deciding whether to throw him back to the wolves in a 12er non keeper.

No more pitching questions but did a trade during the week getting E Suarez for B Crawford in my dynasty. Wanted a bit more youth and I’m buying Eugenio’s breakout, may offer similar power and more speed come the end of the season and obviously much younger. Like the deal?

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
Reply to  Swfcdan
6 years ago

@Swfcdan: Should’ve backed it up with stats, just looked on fangraphs and his fastball velo is way down so far, over 2mph compared with last year. Hope that’s just the cold but I ain’t confident it is!

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Cool at least you are liking the deals I’ve made so far even if most of my teams are sucking!

One league where I have (had?) Pollock is dying for speed. Thinking off offering for DeShizz just wanted your impartiality instead of Greys haha. Any worry that he may not be leading off much in near future?

Also have Brantley just back in same league but he’s going to get rest days early on so and likely will be rusty. I’m trying to move him now, thinking Cain is a good buy low target I could get?

Moses
6 years ago

Quick please :)

Give up Springer, Odorizzi, and Chen for McCutchen and Roark?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
6 years ago

Great article as always JB!

Cheers,
MP

Gareth
Gareth
6 years ago

I see you have Michael Wacha at 39.

Someone dropped him in the rcl. I have the 4th spot out of 12 on the waiver list. Is Wacha worth using this up and going to the last waiver spot?

My rotation is currently Kluber, Strasburg and Iwakuma.
I’d be dropping a streaming spot for him (I’m streaming Porcello tonight).

Warren
Warren
6 years ago

Also, I traded your Bae Joe Ross for Lorenzo Cain. OK with that?

Harrison Ford in Air Force One
Harrison Ford in Air Force One
6 years ago

Start Gausman with any confidence in a weekly H2H? @TB tonight and he’s scheduled to get a second start vs the White Sox too

Bryce Krispie Treats
Bryce Krispie Treats
6 years ago

Hey JB,

I just dropped two guys that I streamed yesterday and put Carrasco on the DL…

Any recommendations for pickups? Im thinking about roark, but are there any guys that you have your eye on? I need three guys :(

Baseball Fan 2000
Baseball Fan 2000
6 years ago

Was offered Pineda for Taijuan. By your rankings I should decline correct?

Oppo Taco
Oppo Taco
6 years ago

I moved Berrios and Story earlier this morning to get King Felix in my keeper league. Seager is my SS and the market for Story was never really there, nobody was buying what I was trying to sell. Your thoughts on the trade? Im set up to compete this season. We keep 8 and berrios would have to have a huge impact for me to keep him. 5×5 roto. Thanks!

c – Castillio
1b- Goldy
2b – pedroia
3b – longo
SS – Seager
Of – J Up, Bautista, Cutch
Util – Rizzo, Deshields
Bench – MeLvon upton

SP – MadBum, Cole, Felix, Velasquez, Matz, Corbin, Joe Ross
RP – Osuna, Tolleson, Jeanmar

Blender
Blender
6 years ago

Liked this one and wondering about that velocity, hmm. The Joe Ross one showed some nasty stuff.

What about doing one on Iglesias or Severino?

WillisReid
WillisReid
6 years ago

The Carrasco injury was a nice way to bookend my week with Rodon blowing up on Monday. The Jake McGee meltdown was in there too.

Left with Salazar Smyly Rodon and Matz. Hammel is on my wire, was going to add him as he’s got a decent matchup, but based on your rankings I might go Happ v Tampa instead.

WillisReid
WillisReid
Reply to  WillisReid
6 years ago

And upon re-reading this while not simultaneously driving and having coffee and a cigarette, I see Hammel is on there,and ranked pretty highly. And shockingly unowned in my league.

WillisReid
WillisReid
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

How do you feel about Smyly v TOR and Matz v SF this week? S-O-N likes the matchups but they seem tougher than they graded out.

Mike in Busan
Mike in Busan
Reply to  WillisReid
6 years ago

@WillisReid: You rocking both Rodon and Carrasco, too? What a brutal week! Just between us, I also have Miggy and Pujols on that same team, and had Hazelnut, so that was a 4-for-64 week from those three.

Pager24
Pager24
6 years ago

Is it stupid for me to start Archer tonight vs. Baltimore? I’m in last place of all my pitching categories except Ks. My pitching has been hot garbage all year! I know the Ks will probably be there but is there any upside to starting him tonight? if it matters its an 1400 innings limit league.

Thanks!

Regan
Regan
6 years ago

Think Pineada and Archer need downgrades. Grey’s dropping Pineada in shallow leagues. I’m tempted to also. Why I drafted any AL East pitchers is beyond me. That division is brutal. Those are the only 2 I drafted and i regret it already.

Bobby
Bobby
6 years ago

Howdy man!

H2h points /weekly league. Hold onto or drop kenta maeda? Doesn’t seem you are high on him; available pitchers: Yordano Ventura, volquez, mat latos, Blake snell, Matt Moore, Josh Tomlin, Ian Kennedy, Aaron Nola. Or hold onto maeda & drop Carlos rodon?

Thanks!

Papi Cruz
Papi Cruz
6 years ago

Not feelin Hughes eh?

Gonzo_The_Great
Gonzo_The_Great
6 years ago

My bet is Liriano is hurt. He had that hamstring issue earlier in the season, and maybe it’s something he just needs to go on the DL for (I’m being optimistic because I’m a Liriano owner).

Had an interesting offer, his Smyly and Tanaka for my Matz and Freddie Freeman. I turned it down because: 1) I like Matz and think he’s going to smoke the Phil’s and Braves a lot this year, 2) Tanaka’s injury risk scares me. Good call? Or should I hastily try to retract my rejection?

PED Inc
PED Inc
6 years ago

Very nice JB, thanks as always!
Tough choice this week in a weekly H2H points league, who would you go with?

Archer vs. TOR & vs. BAL

Garcia vs. Wash & @ Arizona

Matz vs. SF

Corbin vs. STL

Archer has killed me so far and with these matchups I just don’t know if I can throw him in there again. On draft day I never thought I’d bench Archer on a 2 start week.

Fungazi
Fungazi
6 years ago

You holding fort on Severino? He seems very hittable so far this year.

Moscowitz
Moscowitz
Reply to  Fungazi
6 years ago

@Fungazi: I would absolutely hold on to Severino. He has clean mechanics, throws easy gas, xFIP is 2.80 and has tons of talent. Dont panic.

Fungazi
Fungazi
Reply to  Moscowitz
6 years ago

@Moscowitz: Officially panicked and am out. I’m severing myself from Severino.

Fungazi
Fungazi
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: I watched a couple of his starts and just doesn’t look like he can fool hitters with his stuff. I’m moving on to Santa Gausman and hope x-mas comes early.

Warren
Warren
6 years ago

Here’s my 10 teamer staff:

Arrieta
Thor
Rodon
Walker
Iglesias
Matz
Moore
Gausman
Nola

someone just panicked and dropped Samardijza and Hammell. I want to grab Bartolo for his two start week (weekly lineup locks) next Sunday vs Braves, but the smarter long term play is to grab both of those guys right? I could also drop Moore to get the two start Big Sexy…

Gausman and Nola the drops? I’ll spend a nice chunk of my FAAB and get them.

Warren
Warren
Reply to  Warren
6 years ago

@Warren: Colon is vs. Atl and @ SD, so pretty amazing.

Burt
Burt
6 years ago

Still no love for Zimmerman?

JoeMorgan'sMustache
JoeMorgan'sMustache
6 years ago

JB, good stuff man. Even though I don’t comment much these days I still keep up and appreciate what you do man. I have a keeper league question for you.

14 team h2h and we can keep 7…..$5 inflation. I can get Sano $6/Fowler $3 for Abreu $34/Ozuna $5. Abreu is the better hitter here, but getting Sano for that cost is very intriguing and for me Abreu isn’t a keeper. FWIW it’s yahoo and he has 3B/RF. Also, .OPS is an added cat which helps his value some. I have Chris Davis who I can move to 1B so I would clearly be fine there. What would you do man? Leaning yes because of Sano’s keeper friendly cost. Thanks!

JoeMorgan'sMustache
JoeMorgan'sMustache
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Thanks for the quick response man. I do love Sano and his immense power. Plus, still so young. Yes, Fowler at the top of that Cubs lineup is nice. Trigger pulled!

Cram It
Cram It
6 years ago

Still worried about Harvey! His fastball just isn’t striking fear right now. It’s pretty goddamn flat and he doesn’t seem to have an out pitch right now. And the worst part, which I’ve been noticing since the post season, he can’t keep it down. He’s leaving a lot of those fastballs up and over the plate. I’ve never seen so many 2 strike pitchers counts result in hits off of a fastball waist high on the outside part of the zone. It’s supposed to be hard in, soft away. Not the other way around. I’m not buying that it’s a mechanics thing. I think he’s smoking too many cigarettes. I don’t care where he finishes as a fantasy starter…I need him to be better for the Metsies! Guh.

Patrick
Patrick
6 years ago

confused how Verlander ‘looks cooked’ after the 10K outing he just had?

Patrick
Patrick
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Fair enough. I bailed on him prior to that outing, so its not like I’m defending him.

Keep up the good work man.

Eric B
Eric B
6 years ago

Good stuff as usual JB. Yeah Ray really had a rough outing didn’t he? I don’t own him so luckily for me, it wasn’t as painful. I see you still have Nicasio at 51, still believe in him despite another shaky performance? I feel like he’s destined for the pen as soon as they deem Glasnow or Tallion as being ready. On a brighter note it was nice to Rodon bounce back, now if my relievers would stop getting blown up…smh.

Decided to take a flier on Pomeranz, and I stashed Gausman on the DL until I can see them both pitch today. Still have E Rod in my other DL spot.What I cant determine is how to fix my C spot. Had Realmuto, dumped him for Molina(because its an OBP league) but I know he has limited upside and will tail off. Would you recommend going back to Realmuto, holding Molina, adding Gomes or Mesaroco(whos been a bigger disappointment than Realmuto)?

Finally Para is still on the wire but to add him I’d have to choose between Gausman or Pom and then likely drop my stash of Trea Turner. Really could use a back up at 1st but Bour, Zimmerman or Mauer are my only options, dont think any of them are a better option than Parra. So keep Trea or add Parra? He hasnt done much over the last week until last night, so he’s still out there.

ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS and 4 keepers per season

C Molina
1B Cabrera
2B Daniel Murphy
3B Seager
SS A. Russell
OF Stanton
OF Springer
OF Polanco
UTIL OF Burns
UTIL OF/DH Sano
Bench 2B/SS Castro
Bench 2B Trea Turner

SP Salazar
SP Corbin
RP Kimbrel
RP McGee
P T. Walker
P Odorizzi
P C.Rodon
P Pomeranz
Bench P Kennedy
Bench RP Vizcaino
Bench RP Tolleson
DL SP E-Rod
DL SP Gausman

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Appreciate your take as always…oh and(slightly off topic) thanks for letting Josh Norman go so he could don the Burgundy and Gold ;).

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: ha, we shall see. We run a similar secondary scheme with the cover 3. And we have an actualk GM running things now, as opposed to Snyder/Allen/Cerrato all of whom have had a hand in previous overpaying for questionable talent, so I’m excited about the addition, definitely an area of need for us.

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Ha, I hope he does well for us…def brings swagger to the secondary.

But back to baseball and super serious questions lol…Berrios is getting the call. I know we’ve been talking about me adding Parra and I was all set to drop Trea Turner to do it and then saw Berrios got the call and added him instead. Now I have Gausman and Berrios(dumped Pomeranz to activate Gausman). Do I keep both ? Gausman looked pretty decent last night, or do I dump one and still add Parra?

Eric B
Eric B
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin: Well Parra got scooped up so Im rolling with one bench bat and holding both, I did have to drop Trea for Berrios, guess if someone falters I can stash Trea again, if someone doesnt beat me to it lol. You think I still have enough O with one bench bat, we dont have an innings limit so maybe I can dominate on that side …my roster looks like this now.
ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS and 4 keepers per season

C Molina
1B Cabrera
2B Daniel Murphy
3B Seager
SS A. Russell
OF Stanton
OF Springer
OF Polanco
UTIL OF Burns
UTIL OF/DH Sano
Bench 2B/SS Castro
DL Pollock

SP Salazar
SP Corbin
RP Kimbrel
RP McGee
P T. Walker
P Odorizzi
P C.Rodon
P Gausman
Bench SP Berrios
Bench SP Kennedy
Bench RP Vizcaino
Bench RP Tolleson
DL SP E-Rod

Zoot
Zoot
6 years ago

14 team points league, just lost carrasco I feel like I need to make a move to help my pitching out.

1. I give up McCutchen, I get Springer and Odorizzi

2. I give up McCutchen, I get Puig, Shields and Parra

In trade one I like springer more than Puig, but probably like Shields more than Odorizzi. Both offers are tempting me. Take one or stay pat?

Zoot
Zoot
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin:
Parra would probably start in the outfield for me over Pillaror Markakis.

We lose a point for batter K. But right now the strikeouts are equal between Mccutchen and Springer I know long season

Is the difference between Puig and springer that big ? And what about shields and Odorizi?

These are the questions I keep asking myself

Zoot
Zoot
Reply to  JB Gilpin
6 years ago

@JB Gilpin:

I def love Springers potential Trying to make up for the loss of my number two pitcher. Thanks for the help ! Love the article

TJ
TJ
6 years ago

Losing Carrasco hurts.
Who do I pick up as the replacment in my K-heavy H2H league- I can actually pick up 2 if need be:

Trevor Bauer
Eovaldi
Graveman
Phil Hughes
Erasmo Ramirez
Stripling
Jhoulys Chacin

Was leaning Hughes as a safe option, and either Bauer or Erasmo for the other.