Better late than never!  February in the following year is always THE BEST time to review last year’s follies and jollies, amiright Razzball Nation!?

After making it through the duldrums of Winter (which I haven’t really had in NC, but ya know, the EPA was lying about global warming), I’m finally catching up on my Pitcher Profile wrap-up for the 2016 season.  If anything, it turns out to be a pretty funny post!  Let’s see how bad JB/Grey/ESPN ranked the AL Cy Young Winner!  Always a good time…  They say hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how bad some of these went, I’ll need my hindsight to be 420 to get through this!

As I did last year and the previous seasons ere’twixt, I’m here to break down my initial 2016 Starting Pitcher Ranks with the – hot, hot, hot!  …or cold – hits and misses.  I compare and contrast what happened with Grey’s 2016 ranks at SP, along with ESPN’s initial ranks from the 2016 season, then make us all look foolish by lining these up with Razzball’s Player Rater rank amongst SP.  And as I did last year, complete the analysis with the Player Rater’s top-40 SP that I missed on in my ranks.  Lots of whiffing this season!  Whiffing as bad as I do when I play Rocket League, the boost makes you go too fast!

Here’s the recap to 2016’s starting pitching ranks (plus my 2017 ranks should be out hopefully in a week or two):

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Top 100 SP Recap

(pitchers listed on opening day team)

SP, Team JB’s RANK Grey’s Rank ESPN Rank Final
Rank
NOTE
Clayton Kershaw, LAD 1 1 1 6 No surprises here that Kershaw was #1 consensus last year, and will likely be again in 2017. Of course he carries some injury-risk now, but he was pitching at his highest level last year pre-injury, which is sayin’ somethin’!
Jake Arrieta, CHC 2 2 4 12 Grey and I were all about #2ing on Arrieta, and he #2ed us all year! Well, he was fine, just not as dominant as 2014 or 15. Something to be said for being solid, and not killing ya.
Chris Sale, CWS 3 3 3 9 #3 across the board, and Sale was fine, except for when you hand him a pair of scissors… K rate went down – as did his velo – as he tried to be a more durable pitcher. Hey, he stayed healthy at least!
Max Scherzer, WAS 4 4 2 1 Dunno what Grey and I didn’t like in Mad Max! Although I loved the movie reboot, and Grey didn’t, so Grey is the worst ranked on this one!
David Price, BOS 5 7 6 16 …and see, Grey makes it up by liking Price the least last year… An atrocious start sunk his numbers, but at least he stayed healthy and finished strong.
Jose Fernandez, MIA 6 10 n/a 10 Was looking sooooo dominant. Still very missed…
Jacob deGrom, NYM 7 5 10 49 All about dat WHIP baby! I didn’t think he was THAT bad, but getting limited to 148 innings is what ate into a nice rank here. As did a crazy regression of a 0.98 WHIP to 1.20 WHIP. Velo dropped sommmmme, but he really wasn’t all that different otherwise. Might be a nice 2017 value, we’ll see how ADP is looking though…
Madison Bumgarner, SF 8 8 5 5 ESPN wins at rankings for once! I know Grey hates his workload, and I just kinda went sexier upside with K guys… Not like either of us whiffed though – got plenty of that a-comin’!
Matt Harvey, NYM 9 6 7 173 Speaking of! But then again, everyone did here, and he was terrible and then had thoracic outlet surgery. Before the procedure, fantasy owners wanted to stick their heads in outlets!
Corey Kluber, CLE 10 15 9 7 Mmmmmm, my Klubot. My one, very own, lovable Klubot. HE WAS ALWAYS MINE AFTER I CALLED HIS BREAKOUT! Off an inconsistent 2015, had some bumps last year as we’ve come to expect as well, but put together a Cy Young-contending season.
Chris Archer, TB 11 14 13 40 Well, so much for the concern about being a two-pitch guy! I threw caution to the wind, and the Archer pee blew back in my face. That said, did still get to 200 innings, and over his final 3 months/half his season, 103 IP, 116 Ks, 3.32 ERA. A lot of pitchers just took a minute adjusting to the juiced balls :)
Carlos Carrasco, CLE 12 13 12 33 A unanimous, low-end ace, he was fulfilling on that promise until the broken hand… I think Carrasco drafters were happy.
Noah Syndergaard, NYM 13 11 16 13 Ding ding ding! JB wins the teddy bear! Hit this one spot on, even though Grey with the highest Thor rank was looking peachy keen for a bit there. Kinda tailed off into the perfect spot to finish his season!
Gerrit Cole, PIT 14 9 8 110 Woooooo, another win for JB! I think I’ll just quote my pre-rank: “I’ve seen Cole a few higher, but it comes down to him being the first guy I have ranked with a K rate under 9 last year. He’s still REALLY good, but also a 6.5% HR/FB is pretty low, even in pitching-friendly Pitt. Not quite reaching with top-10 value for him.” Well, that and an injury, but the K rate dropped way down to 7.6 and he wasn’t close to the top-10 pre-ranks before getting hurt.
Stephen Strasburg, WAS 15 12 15 19 Mo’ Strasburg injuries, mo’ problems! Man, 183 Ks in 147.2 IP for a 11.15 K rate… I forgot it got that high… Gonna be tough to have him any lower than this again in 2017…
Dallas Keuchel, HOU 16 17 11 78 Grey and I nailed this one! Well, not really, we both saw much more regression than the consensus, but didn’t think he’d be THAT bad. When you throw 88 MPH and miss your spots, you get blowed up!
Jon Lester, CHC 17 24 19 2 JB FTW! Kept moving him up and up after seeing his numbers line up against a lot of the elite guys. Still in the teens wasn’t good enough, but this was a good win for daddy!
Felix Hernandez, SEA 18 19 18 62 Booooo, from that high to Felix! Well, everyone missed here; his rough 2015 continued and became a rougher 2016. Feels like it’ll be a realllly risky pick in 2017.
Zack Greinke, ARI 19 18 14 54 Wow, surprising win here! I knew Grey didn’t like him either, but I was surprised I was the lowest. The ever-important park factor! And well, a slight injury having you drop from 222 to 158 innings doesn’t help either…
Carlos Martinez, STL 20 30 21 20 Ding ding ding again! I think on the Pod, Grey bet me like $1 that C-Mart would be hurt by April or June. Where’s my dollah, bitch!?
Danny Salazar, CLE 21 16 22 48 Was going to easily eclipse this rank, until second-half elbow issues finally culminating in a flexor strain had it all fall apart. Damn, 2.22 ERA, 107 Ks in 93.1 IP through June… It’s still going to feel a little risky for me to like him too much in 2017.
Carlos Rodon, CWS 22 26 74 68 Ugh, well, some of my bolder calls didn’t work out… Stupid, dominant run to finish out 2015! Then of course he finished 2016 strong too. Way to be trash, except for late in the year when everyone has dropped you, Rodon!
Cole Hamels, TEX 23 22 28 25 Not much to see here, as reliable an SP2 as there is.
Francisco Liriano, PIT 24 23 31 109 Polar opposite for Grey’s former lover, Liriano! Mannnn, as I mentioned in my pre-ranks, he was coming in with a second-lowest career BB rate! Still had Searage, a good park, the NL… Stupid unpredictability of sports!
Marcus Stroman, TOR 25 46 23 70 Grey was right to hate this schmohawk! All sorts of dazzling stuff and potential, just not consistent. However, I think I might be buying back in for 2017 – 3.41 xFIP and got over 200 innings. Gonna debate it.
Jeff Samardzija, SF 26 38 27 39 Wowwwwwww, Shark finished top-40?! Something to be said for staying healthy! 2.45 ERA with just over a K/per 9 over his last 10 starts made this thankfully turn into “not the worst whiff”! I’m thinking of changing my “Pitcher Profile” series to “Not The Worst Whiff” series!
Joe Ross, WAS 27 53 28 88 This, except the emo version
Justin Verlander, DET 28 64 36 4 Whoa, surprise victory to get me feeling better off the Joe Ross catastrophe! Velocity and effectiveness returned after some injuries in the 2015 second half, and I bought in. Although, I don’t think I owned him anywhere… So I only get to gloat here, #2016champion!!!!!!!!!
Patrick Corbin, ARI 29 35 53 198 F dude, it’s an emotional roller coaster right now! Had a great K:BB in 2015 off TJ, velo showed flashes, but nooooooooo! Arizona ruins people! Rough one.
Taijuan Walker, SEA 30 27 57 75 Speaking of Arizona ruining people, I have absolutely no idea what to do with Walker in 2017… Grey and I were all about his Kool Aid; I noted a high HR rate and low LOB in 2015, and the LOB fixed, but HR rate went to 17.6% per fly ball! In Safeco! Now put him in the desert… Yikes, I think I’m figuring out what I’m gonna do with Walker…
Tyson Ross, SD 31 20 25 240 Never like to see injuries be the reason you’re proved right, but after my Rodon and Ross misses, I’ll take anything at this point!
Johnny Cueto, SF 32 21 20 11 Here was another bad call. I got sucked into the rumor mill that he had an underlying elbow issue, but should’ve trusted the Giants did their homework and Cueto put together a fantastic debut season for them. Huzzah for pitcher’s parks!
Sonny Gray, OAK 33 40 17 202 Sheesh, I thought I was the low guy on Gray! Turns out Grey was low on Gray! We both didn’t like extremely low BABIP trends paired with a low K rate, and then it reallllly fell apart.
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY 34 39 35 17 Why it’s impossible to accurately weigh or discount guys with injuries! Great season from Tanaka, proving UCLs are barely meaningful to pitching a baseball…
Yordano Ventura, KC 35 37 n/a 97 Too soon.
Luis Severino, NYY 36 44 55 195 Wellllll, this breakout didn’t really happen… I didn’t think I was leading the charge on Severino, but yikes I feel bad seeing these rankings compared! A horrible start led to a demotion, and he really wasn’t that great in AAA either. I guess the 87% LOB should’ve told us this was a fluke in 2015! xFIPs ended up being similar…
Raisel Iglesias, CIN 37 33 38 86 Kinda a weird one, as some minor injuries had the Reds reassess and move him to the bullpen. I tend to hate when teams do this, but in Iglesias’s case, turning him into an A Miller-type who can eat up pivotal innings makes sense.
Drew Smyly, TB 38 45 30 93 Lots of buzz on Smyly, and he made us all look frowny. Had some nice flashes! But kudos to Grey for keeping a straight face here.
Adam Wainwright, STL 39 28 24 74 JB FTW part deux! I hated the velo loss, his 2014 season before the Achilles-injury-2015 had a lot of luck factors, and he even though he had a nice little run at one point, it didn’t come together for a nice year. Huzzah for hating the Cards!
Michael Wacha, STL 40 29 33 148 Huzzah again! I noted that a lot of his 2015 value came with 17 wins in 181 innings, but I also noted that I didn’t think he had the upside of a lot of the breakouts I whiffed on. Hey, at least I didn’t have Wacha either!
Steven Matz, NYM 41 25 45 50 Grey going loco for his Matz! I got notoriously bludgeoned for not buying into Matz as much as commenters wanted, but it ended up being the right call. Sure, injuries hampered a decent season, but that was my concern in the first place! K:BB was pretty good, but I’m still not sure he’ll ever be a 200+ IP guy.
Jason Hammel, CHC 42 52 92 30 Apparently Jason Hammel slept with all of the ESPN fantasy baseball experts’ wives, because 92?! I knew there was risk of a second-half meltdown, but dayum!  That cold!
Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA 43 43 39 45 He’s such a consistent pitcher, we all knew exactly where to rank him! …consistently blah… Hishashi my Dashi!
Jose Quintana, CWS 44 47 32 22 Whew, I knew this was a bad one, but at least Grey was worse last year! While everyone points to the wins being the booster, he did see a nice BABIP dropoff, a fairly high LOB, and his xFIP was actually the highest since 2012. I kinda think he’ll be overranked this year…
Michael Pineda, NYY 45 32 34 87 Hell to the yeah! I almost had him ranked that high, but then threw some pine tar on him and dropped him down a bit! Here’s what I said in my pre-rank: “It’s just inconsistency, and if you’re walking a microscopic 1.18 per/9, you shouldn’t be giving up a .278 BAA. It shows a lack of command, and as widely talked about on YES, he lacks finesse on his secondary pitches at times. Now sure, you can point to a .332 BABIP and extremely unlucky 68.6%, but without that command of secondary stuff, his HR rate in that park is going to continue to be high (14.7% last year) which will keep the LOB low.” and that’s me quoting me!
Mike Fiers, HOU 46 58 43 80 Ewwwww, Mike Fiers. Had an alluring K rate, but really falls apart once hitters lock in on the deception.
Lance McCullers, HOU 47 54 54 102 Shoulders are useless! They’re always getting hurt! Mannnnn, 11.78 K rate last year! But geez, 5.00 BB/9 and a .383 BABIP?! So many guys on base! Even though half his pitches are curveballs, if he can survive Spring Training and looks OK, I’ll be all over this.
Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS 48 56 64 139 Got an initial aggressive rank from me with early news he was working in a cutter, mixed with his high velo. Unfortunately a knee injury cost him most of Spring and the start of the season, and it took him a while to get going. After a rough start and terrible June, actually ended really damn strong: 14 starts, 3.24 ERA, 79 K in 77.2 IP. He tried that cutter in June, and it didn’t work so he scrapped it, so maybe he didn’t need it in the first place…
Wei-Yin Chen, MIA 49 50 40 132 Crayola Canyon, more like Crayola Graveyard! What happened here?! Grey and I both got suckered too, but at least not as bad as ESPN!
Jake Odorizzi, TB 50 36 56 43 Well, I guess if we’re doing Price is Right rules, Grey won this one, but Jake Over Easy finished right about in the middle of our ranks. I’m looking at his numbers though, and not a single thing excites me. Great for points leagues though, decent innings-eating!
James Paxton, SEA 51 n/a 167 94 JB’s big Canadian love, Big Pax, finally showed some of that potential last year! Grey didn’t rank him as I’m guessing we had news at that point he was starting in AAA… Pax adjusted his delivery for a lower arm slot, and started slingin’ 100 MPH. Boner police, don’t come looking for me! 8.70:1.79 K:BB last year, and throws 100. Who isn’t excited?! Had a high BABIP and low LOB that obfuscated the breakout before our eyes. 2.80 FIP! Mmmmm, maple syrup!
Collin McHugh, HOU 52 61 60 60 He’s the Iwakuma of pitchers 10 spots later…
Ian Kennedy, KC 53 68 70 37 He shoots, he scores! In my pre-rank, I noted “His BABIP has stayed high with a subpar defense as well, and now he gets a better park and a MUCH better defense. He’ll still have a pretty high WHIP with only an average ERA, but the Ks make him worth an SP4 draft day price.” And whadya know?! BABIP went down, and he got 184 Ks. That said, K rate went down and BB rate went up. Velo ticked up a smidge, but this will be a one-and-done high rank for The Prez.
Kevin Gausman, BAL 54 57 63 47 Interesting, I didn’t think I would end up being the high Gas Man guy, but things worked out here! Like Kennedy, nice K rate, stayed healthy… Nothing much jumps off the page though.
Garret Richards, LAA 55 34 26 159 You never like an injury to prove you right, but you take em as you get em!
James Shields, SD 56 41 66 275 Booooo, I thought I wrote THE scathing indictment on Shields! ESPN definitely called this one. He’s as done as burnt toast.
Jordan Zimmermann, DET 57 42 29 119 At least I got this bust right! In my recap I noted “…FB velo went 93.9, 93.9, 93.8 in 2012-14, down to 93.0 in 2015. It’s minimal, but it’s starting to go the wrong way.” Last year? 91.8. Ouch.
John Lackey, STL 58 63 42 23 I lack faith in Lackey! Wow, top 25? 1.05 WHIP thanks to a .255 BABIP, and suddenly the K rate went from 7.5ish over the previous 4 years to 8.6 last year. Not much looks that different, but even though I’m not a big believer, he might be a draft day value in 2017.
Scott Kazmir, LAD 59 48 37 77 No clue where this love for Kazmir came from… No way was he gonna stay healthy, as I noted in the pre-rank, his K rate was declining, BB rate increasing, and his FIP and xFIP were terrible in 2015.
Vincent Velasquez, PHI 60 74 72 66 You know what VV looks like? A “W”! As in, a W for JB! I liked the K upside and moving to the NL, but admittedly had fairly tempered expectations.
Andrew Cashner, SD 61 86 82 189 Buzz’s girlfriend, woof! What in the world did I like about Cashner?! He had a nice 2014, but peripherals said his disaster 2015 was unlucky. Turns out, the peripherals were a good predictor…
Kyle Hendricks, CHC 62 49 47 8 This might be the worst whiff of 2016. Looks like the K-rate on the sinker was for real, and while he did have some luck factors, he really made his slow velo work.
Aaron Nola, PHI 63 55 65 108 For a while, this was looking like a MASSIVE miss from me as well. After looking dominant for the first 1/3 of the season, he completely lost it, likely in part due to an elbow issue that ended his season early. He’s gonna be a toughie for rankings this yr…
Gio Gonzalez, WAS 64 66 46 63 ESPN heart Gio! Grey and JB sadface Gio. Gio not quite poop emoji, more like the “meh” face.
Julio Teheran, ATL 65 65 44 31 I have no clue how Teheran made it so high on ESPN, but kudos to them seeing something here! Grey and I equally did not see this “something…”
Shelby Miller, ARI 66 60 48 289 Here’s your big poop emoji! For some reason, his delivery got so out-of-whack that he was scraping his finger on the mound in his follow-through. And not like prior to the injury he was any good anyway…
Kenta Maeda, LAD 67 67 50 18 Grey and I didn’t buy that a pitcher with ho-hum K numbers in Japan would do much K-ing in the MLB! Turns out, he K-ed over everyone! Just K, K, K… Well, that’s a poorly put together sentence… If the Dodgers loosen up the innings limits, he could be a monster this year.
Trevor Bauer, CLE 68 91 77 53 I didn’t think I was a Bauer guy! I liked 24 season 1, but the rest got kinda hokey to me… I didn’t even write anything nice in my rank of him! I guess everyone else was even more down on him than I was…
Robbie Ray, ARI 69 97 104 91 One of my favorite late-round calls was Ray, who I think I kinda got right on principle! He got ridiculous Ks (218 on a 11.25 K rate), but was terrible everywhere else. I know he has fans that will point to his crazy high BABIP (.352) and call him a 2017 sleeper, but I will debunk that in my ranks to come out pretty soon.
Anthony DeSclafani, CIN 70 130 67 61 Grey hates Italians! He must be a French! I have no idea if that’s right… Anyway, big year from DeSclafani who I liked a lot, but unfortunately, ESPN liked him more. Way to copy me!
Brandon Maurer, SD 71 n/a n/a n/a Yeah this was a home run swing-and-miss pick, I loved his stuff (especially the cutter), and they were gonna try him in the rotation. Then in his 2nd or 3rd Spring start, gave up 10 ER in like 1.1 innings. Back to relief for you! And then he fell out of my updated ranks, obviously.
Jerad Eickhoff, PHI 72 95 156 35 I Khoff, you Khoff, we all Khoff for ice cream! Hopefully you followed me to the promised land! I think in comments and in week-to-week ranks I still didn’t raise him much, but he had a solid year with an acceptable WHIP, an OK K-rate, and stayed healthy most of the way.
Tyler Glasnow, PIT 73 110 68 212 Grey is good about avoiding the rookie nookie, but damnnnnnn Glasnow looked good when I saw him in person!  Then had that minor shoulder thing, and he didn’t get much done in the Majors. Hopefully he’s healthy and can figure out that control!
Blake Snell, TB 74 n/a 87 120 Speaking of control, that’s all Snell needs! Just watch some of the GIFs from his Pitcher Profile last year to see why I’ll still be excited. He seems right on the cusp of a breakout.
Yu Darvish, TEX 75 31 61 51 So yeah, I was really low in the initial ranks because his timeline was like June or later at the time I put mine out. Then things got more and more optimistic, and we ended up with a solid 100 innings. 132 Ks in those innings! Wowzer.
Jaime Garcia, STL 76 62 41 90 I’ve never been a Jaime guy, never believed in his health, didn’t think he was consistent enough, and the rails really fell off this time. Cardinals bias working out on this one!
Jimmy Nelson, MIL 77 79 119 137 I hate Jimmy Nelson. Never again.
Taylor Jungmann, MIL 78 84 150 280 I probably *should* hate Young Man more, but he just completely lost it right away, so at least if you took a flier in a deeper league, you got out of the investment pretty quick.
Ervin Santana, MIN 79 n/a 96 57 No one believed in the Big Erv! Pretty much fell right in line to what I said in my pre-rank – will have a 7ish K-rate (7.4) and eat up innings without killing you. Would’ve been even better if not for 7 wins in 181 innings – lol Twins!
Adam Conley, MIA 80 90 97 92 I liked him a little as a breakout, but noted fatigue down the 2015 stretch. Had a pretty decent 2016 season, but I dunno if there’s much upside here.
Nate Karns, SEA 81 70 76 138 Hah, I wrote about how I thought he was being overlooked, and I ended up being the lowest ranker! Maintained an awesome K-rate (9.64), but was pretty awful…
Jose Berrios, MIN 82 106 83 294 Speaking of awful, Berrios was historically bad! I’ve heard that an 8.02 ERA and 1.87 isn’t good… They’re talking about completely overhauling his delivery – wasn’t he a dynamic prospect with great numbers going into last year?! Lol Twins!
Clay Buchholz, BOS 83 69 71 116 Lowest ranker = easy win on this one for JB.
Jake Peavy, SF 84 89 133 174 Highest ranker = easy loss for JB. I thought his cutter might have enough life left in it, but bleh… Even if his BABIP and LOB indicate he got a little unlucky…
Edinson Volquez, KC 85 82 84 167 Well, that didn’t work out for all of us ranking him in the same range! Thoughts out to him and his family through a rough time though…
Nathan Eovaldi, NYY 86 78 85 101 Just never been an Eovaldi guy except that one little stretch to start 2014 I think it was on the Marlins… Hopefully he can make his way back from a rough injury.
J.A. Happ, TOR 87 88 118 14 Drop the confetti for Grey and Jbetti! Although, ummmm, maybe not-sa-much, we were still reallllly low on a guy who had a lot of good things going for him. Shocked he could have this kind of season in Roger’s Centre!
Mike Leake, STL 88 51 51 104 I’ll just quote my pre-rank, and be sure to remind everyone that fantasy basketball is a big help to baseball sometimes :) Shameless promotion! “In mixed league roto contexts, Leake HURTS you more than helps. 200 innings of a 6 K-rate almost kills your ability to be competitive in that cat. It’s like a horrible FT shooter in fantasy basketball. He should have a nice WHIP, but while a lot of people argue for that awesome park he’s now in, he wasn’t any better with the ERA in a good park last year (4.07 ERA in SF vs. 3.56 in CIN).”
Andrew Heaney, LAA 89 59 59 213 Damn TJ, hopefully he can be a decent back-end start still…
Rick Porcello, BOS 90 87 122 3 Whewwwwwwwwwwwwww. I knew this one would be bad, but not as bad as it could’ve been! I also didn’t help this bad rank by barely ever moving him up much in his preposterous Cy Young season. I dare someone to find a rankings-set where he’s pre-ranks top-20 for 2017.
Derek Holland, TEX 91 101 99 144 Damn. Injuries, and then was just plain awful last year…
Rich Hill, OAK 92 77 89 24 Yeah, didn’t buy in at all here. One of the bigger surprises to me in 2016, that a 3-game sample to close out Sept. in 2015 actually WAS an indicator that a 36-yr-old was going to be great the next year. This woulda bummed even harder if he somehow stayed healthy too!
Daniel Norris, DET 93 73 113 123 Grey loves his pitchers who live in a van!
Matt Moore, TB 94 100 94 44 Wow, didn’t think Moore finished that high! 4.08 ERA 1.29 WHIP… Man, Player Rater lovvvvvves his innings. Or her innings! I don’t specify! I’m not an NC bathroom! Ks had a nice boost when he went to the NL, but bleh.
Henry Owens, BOS 95 n/a 153 264 I think I was drunk by this part of the ranks.
Jon Niese, PIT 96 126 135 182 See above.
Bud Norris, ATL 97 n/a 281 145 Now, while you’d THINK I was drunk for this too, I think this one is clearly a win. People were streaming him at times in a bunch of leagues when he was on the Dodgers! Before, ya know, he blew up…
Josh Tomlin, CLE 98 83 140 52 Grey and JB on the Tomlin call! Nice one here, Grey-the-lothario!
Hyun-Jun Ryu, LAD 99 71 124 242 I never bought into the health of that shoulder.
Kris Medlen, KC 100 118 136 276 Ew, for Mr. Irrelevant you’re throwing a dart, and I’m not Scottish!

Top-40 (per Razzball Player Rater) SP, That I Failed To Rank

  • Tanner Roark (15) – I can’t remember if there was concern he would be the long man out of the bullpen or what when I ranked…  Ugh.
  • Aaron Sanchez (21) – This I do remember – I liked him as a starter, but it was still uncertain he was going to the rotation.  He quickly made an ascent up the week-to-week ranks.
  • Danny Duffy (26) – Duffy actually WAS in the bullpen.  For nearly two months!  Yet still got to 180 innings and is one of the most popular breakouts for this year (if he didn’t break out already that is..).
  • Drew Pomeranz (27) – Well, I feel a little dumb here…  I guess all the waffling in and out of the rotation in Oakland skewed any upside I saw…
  • Dan Straily (29) – Yeah, don’t feel dumb here at all.  His peripherals point to MASSIVE regression.  Even if he is going to Miami.
  • Bartolo Colon (30) – I know, I know, I know.  All the experts never like him, and he ends up waddling through a lot of innings and being good on season-long ranks.  But did anyone own Colon almost the whole year in a mixed league and feel awesome about it?
  • Michael Fulmer (33) – The best rookie breakout!  Came outta left field behind all those prospects ranked high above; huzzah for the new change-up!
  • Jeremy Hellickson (35) – Speaking of change-up, Helly’s was one of the best pitches in the Majors last year.  Still will be ranking him unfavorably since I don’t really like the rest of his stuff, but going to do further Hellboy research for the ranks.
  • Chris Tillman (37) – I remember really buying into his post-ASB splits, then he whiffed on that trend in 2015.  Even though a top-40 finisher, nothing too exciting here, it’s just boosted by 16 wins.
  • Marco Estrada (39) – I think the leaning on peripherals and the fact he blew in Milwaukee had some sort of irrational hate going on.  This was a bad one.  I almost changed it to “Top-38 pitchers I didn’t rank”.

 

Ugh, way too many misses in that final list!  Well, hopefully doing this right before my ranks will help me make as many egregious errors before I put out 2017 SP…  Thanks for dropping by, Razzball Nation!

  1. Lance

    Lance says:
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    JB…

    Paxton at 51 is a travesty! If you read the blurb independent of looking at the ranking, you would easily guess he’s top 50 guy.

    I got a piece coming out on him this week for you guys.

    I’m all in, he’s top 30 for me.

    Give him some love!!!! Would love to jump on the podcast as a new writer and give you and Grey a soliloquy if needed. Paxton for President.

    • Lance

      Lance says:
      (link)

      @Lance:
      ….. wait

      Just realized this is a recap of 2016…..

      I’ll see myself out now…..

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Lance: Haha, well in your defense, doing a recap post this late is kinda silly :) but thought it would be a fun exercise before i put my real ranks out :) Paxton has been my Canadian lover since he debuted, I’ll always remember that Angels 2014 debut game I watched and he blew my mind:

        http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/seattle-mariners-los-angeles-angels-340402103/

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Get a room!

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Grey: There’s always room for Grey between a sandwich of me n Pax, our 6’7 premium man meat buns!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Now, I’ll never be able to top my hamburger buns with mayo again, thanks!

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Grey: They love their Mayo in Canada! Learned that from The Whole 9 Yards

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Who doesn’t love mayo?

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @Grey: Be Dutch and put it on french fries!

                  • nick the dick says:
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                    @Grey: Mayo is easily the worst thing ever invented. If there’s a Hell, you get greeted by the devil eating a hot jar of mayo with a spoon.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, if the devil is Sheldon and doesn’t know how to make anything but Hawaiian

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @nick the dick: Hahaha, I like Grey’s version of hell a little better :)

                    • Let Us Now Praise Famous Death Dwarves says:
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                      @nick the dick: i am completely with nick the dick here. mayo is terrible, and i LOVE willis in whole 9 yards and how he deals with it. anybody who gives you mayo when you specifically say NO to it (i’m looking at EVERY fast food place ever here) does deserve to have their houses burned down.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      Mayo def took me until adulthood to warm up to, but no cold cut sandwich should be without it :)

        • Lance

          Lance says:
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          @JB Gilpin:
          Hahaha all my bad – it’s a solid column, gives great perspective to reflect on ranks.

          Where do you have Paxton SP-wise?

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Lance: Thanks man! Whew, rankings are still a little nebulous right now, but I’ll have him aggressive

  2. dubjay says:
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    Hey JB.
    Still waiting patiently for your top 100.
    Until then, would you grab L.McCullers, M.Harvey or Paxton first? Or would you take one of Pujols, L.Cain, O.Herrera here. It is the 13 round of a keeper league.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @dubjay: We’re cookin ‘er up! I’m kinda thinking shoot for the move upside. Gimme McCullers

  3. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Had the same feelings about Yu last year. But then he came back and MAN did he look gnasty.

    Funny seeing the mainstream projections putting his ERA in the 3.5-3.6 range when he beat that even last year while shaking off the cobwebs while rocking a career 3.29. I like Gray’s prediction of a sub-3 250K potential this year.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Yeah he looked unreal. So talented. Was that Grey’s REAL projection, or a bold call? I’ll be somewhere in the middle… Low 3s, 220ish Ks. Which would still be elite

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Yea you remember correctly. I think he’s writeup for Yu said something like that this year feels like the year he could go 2.50 250Ks (I’m in total agreement, particularly since he feels underrated due to the partial season, sort of like JD Mart).

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Agreed. The upside is there. Imagine if he was on the Giants or something like that. Might rival Kershaw!

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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            @JB Gilpin: That’s actually a really good point for Yu in keepers. He could end up in the NL next year!

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Oh good lord… What if the Dodgers buy him?! Lefty Kershaw and righty Darvish first two games of any series in the playoffs?! Yikes.

  4. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Also, will we be getting some James Paxton music this year? Might I suggest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDVYt5FJY58 (I basically just googled “Canadian dance music”)

  5. Big W says:
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    Hey JB, thanks for doing this! Love your work!

    I’m hanging onto Alex Reyes in my keeper league and excited about the kid’s future. What are your general thoughts on him and (roughly) where might you rank him going into 2017?

    And as for Duffy, do you think he does better than last season, roughly the same or does he come back down to earth?

    Thanks in advance!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Big W: Appreciate it man! Hopefully this was a fun recap :)

      I have Reyes in my fav dynasty too, very excited. I think it’s encouraging they took off the kids gloves already and let him start. Maybe 35ish? I’m still ranking away…

      I would say roughly the same, we’ll see how he holds up to being a starter from day 1. Any time!

      • Big W says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Oh boy, did we jinx Reyes? on his way for an MRI and possible Tommy John. Why!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Why can’t I ever have anything nice!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Big W: Ughghghghghg. Dude, in REL – my fav basketball league – got the offical word I lost K Love for 6 weeks. Then I learn in REL baseball, I lose Reyes. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

  6. JoeG414 says:
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    Got killed early on drafting Rodon and Corbin . But, hit hit big drafting Happ in round 23 . DDuffy and Roark bail me out the second half.
    2017 – Looking at those two , plus : Carrasco , Paxton , Odorizzi and Gausman for this year.
    Any others to zone in on ?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @JoeG414: Yeah me too man… Thankfully those guys didn’t get drafted too high and yeah, nice work piecing it together! I really like Nova still, happy he’s staying in PIT. McCullers is a popular breakout, but might be “too” popular. I think Junior Guerra is still a little overlooked!

  7. Scot says:
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    JB, who would you take out of tanaka or quintana? Stats are w/qs/k/era/whip/ip/k:Bb. Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scot: Gimme Tanaka, I think Quintana is a smidge worse this year with less wins

  8. DisEnFranchised says:
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    Was that you calling me trash on Rocket League last night?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @DisEnFranchised: Hah I doubt it, I’m pretty awful myself… If you play on steam, my ID is “EARL_OF_DOODOO” haha, we should play sometime!

      • DisEnFranchised says:
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        @JB Gilpin: That would be great but I’m on PS4. I stick to West Coast servers and have had the game for about a month. I’ll keep an eye out for you. My ID is Dis3nFrnchs3d.

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Ha I play on PC on Steam sometimes too. I’m fairly decent, but nothing compared to some of the freaks you get matched against online. Can you aerial well? I can about 1/5 times which isn’t bad for the game!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @DisEnFranchised: @Swfcdan: We can still private match sometime tho! But would be cool to run into you in a match.

          Aerials – nah, still slowly introducing those, I spent these first few weeks playing just being sure I can consistently hit the ball haha. I’m pretty good at wall hits though!

        • DisEnFranchised says:
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          @JB Gilpin: @Swfcdan: I will look for you some time JB.

          Swfcdan, I can do some of the easier aerials at about the rate you mention. My friend who has played for a long time seems to think I’m doing very well considering how long I’ve been playing. He does some really sick aerials.

          Hope to see you both on the game some time. Cheers!

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Swfcdan: @DisEnFranchised: Yeah the guy at work who got me into it is a pretty elite player. I’m still in my training phase haha. Hope to roll with you guys sometime!

  9. Ante GALIC says:
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    JB!!!

    Great post, I loved it completely!

    Gonna love Pax as well, but hoping I can get Yu across the board in my CBS H2H points leagues where they use a 3-year average in the computer rankings which brings down his rankings tremendously and then guys don’t see him on page 1, 2 or 3 of the top pitchers. Gotta abuse that.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Thanks man, glad you enjoyed it! Whoa, CBS , get your ish in order! Yeah I’ll have Yu top… 6 or 7 I think? Still fiddling around

  10. Swfcdan says:
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    The ‘new’ Paxton was utter filth last year. Keeping him in my 12 teamer for $9 (inflation due to keepers probably takes his draft day cost over $10) and I know the big Pax Man breakout is coming at last!

    Another guy I love is Daniel Norris, new slider/cutter he added took him to the next level. Great K upside there, hopefully he can now stay healthy- maybe less time sleeping cramped in the van!

    No Jameson Taillon on here though? Or are all midseason callup guys missed off as you wouldn’t rank start of season…hang on your novio Glasnow is on here! Also have Glasnow in my keeper league, think he starts in the bigs?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Swfcdan: Yeah man, he was unbelievable! Throwing harder, stuff looked great, and his peripherals say he got unlucky too!

      Haha on norris, ehhhh, I’m kinda iffy on him. His stuff has never looked that electric to me… I’ll def do more research and look at more video before rankings are out though.

      Yeah didn’t initially rank Taillon, he was off the 2 seasons off from injury, so he was a very much unknown in Feb last year. Unknown as in what he could do with his arm put back together. I’m gonna like him this year, but not enamored, I kinda doubt I draft him much. Glasnow I bet starts in AAA and works slow/short outings at first off the shoulder thing

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Ah man you need to read up more on Norris then. Good whiff rates on all 3 pitches according to brooks baseball in 2nd half last year, especially the slider at 19%. 94mph avg velo which for a lefty is great, and the new slider/cutter (slutter?) reduced his walk total. Huge sleeper and I’m getting him in every league. Don’t trust me, just ask Eno!
        http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daniel-norris-justin-verlander-and-the-tiger-slider/

        Yeah likely a midseason callup for Glas. You’re still loving him right?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Swfcdan: Hah everyone loves Eno! Hah well to be fair, I may have stumbled on this myself, I’m not that far down on individual pitcher research for the ranks :) Man yeah he musta added some serious velo, fangraphs has last 3 season overall fastball velo at: 60.9% (91.2) 58.6% (91.9) 61.8% (93.1)

          If he blows up though, I’ll give ya some shouts, don’t you worry!

          How is your Wednesday club doing this yr?

  11. ElBoss says:
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    Morning JB, are we getting a podcast this week?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @ElBoss: Morning man! Nah we were still gonna do bi-weekly, although I’ll talk with Grey and maybe we start weekly again starting next week. We’re gonna do a live in person podcast in a few weeks too!

      • ElBoss says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Awesome, sweet man. You guys do great work!! Love the podcast. Maybe in one we get to hear the story of how Nick left you guys…

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @ElBoss: Thanks man we try! And appreciate you liking the podcast! I’d gamble to say we’re the goofiest pod out there… Maybe we’ll have a story time about Nick!

  12. Moneyball says:
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    Seeing Bartolo at #30 just goes to show you can’t go back and grade based on season-long rankings.

    I don’t think he saw a starting lineup for more than a month tops last year in my 14 team Roto weekly lineup league with set 6 SP starters.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Moneyball: Agree with that sentiment, I kinda hinted on that in the recap. And the player rater definitely likes the innings eaters. I still think it’s a fun little exercise though.

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