Yeah, I did already use this title, didn’t I?!  Manaea?  Maeda?  Tomato?  Tomatto?!  Let’s call the whole thing off!  What’s funny is Sean Manaea and Kenta Maeda couldn’t be more different either, with the former is a lefty hard-thrower, and the other a righty craftsman…

I got a good amount of flack the first few weeks of the Pitcher Profile ranks for not moving Maeda way up, but I think he’s going to end up a pretty average pitcher in fantasy terms – something akin to a standard league SP4.  Like Grey’s Pulitzer-winningMatt Harvey is sucking because of the playoff workload last year” advice on the Podcast, I’ve always maintained the entirely unique and previously un-thought “Maeda could start strong, but will fade as the league sees him more.”  We’re all about the hard-hitting advice here at Razzball!

We’ve begun to see the cracks in the armor from Maeda (can’t use a different phrase because of Jeremy Lin, thanks ESPN).  After a 0.36 ERA through his first 4 starts, he sported a 5.82 the next 4 heading into yesterday afternoon.  Didn’t expect it to regress this fast!  Comments exclaiming for a Maeda move-up in my ranks certainly went away!  But within this 8-start microcosm, I indeed think Maeda is somewhere in that law of averages.  So after a few requests for a Maeda profile, I decided to break down his start yesterday afternoon in a saucy matchup at Petco to see how he looks.

Psyche!  Quick heads up I’m out next week, but the Profile shall return with all its GIFs and ranks glory on June 6th.  Catch ya then!

First Inning: Maeda’s first pitch is an 87 fastball taken outside by Jon Jay, fastball again out there is slashed foul, fastball again outside, little slider is hacked on late and fouled off, then a looping curveball at 82 is skied to left for a routine first out.  Maeda spikes a 90 MPH fastball for ball one to Wil Myers, 90 MPH is in there, then a fastball on the inner half is hammered to third, but Hungry Howie Kendrick makes the play for a pretty hard hit second out.  90 MPH fastball is outside to Matt Kemp – fallen behind to all 3 hitters thus far – fastball again fouled off, heater one more time fouled away, big slider at 82 breaks low and outside, then slider again except much more compact at 82 MPH gets Kemp swinging over it and Maeda a quick 1-2-3 inning.

Maeda-SliderSecond Inning: Two-seamer opens up inning number two and breaks a little outside to Yangervis Solarte fresh off the DL, looked like a change-up hangs high 2-0, sinking fastball at 90 gets a foul back, then that big loopy curveball at 72 gets dribbled to second for a weak first out.  89 MPH four-seamer is right in there for Maeda’s first first-pitch strike – that’s good to see – he’s a little high to Melvin Upton 1-1, fastball again high gets a whiff at 90 1-2, two-seamer at 90 MPH barely doesn’t nip that outside corner 2-2, slider is barely tipped into the dirt, 92 MPH two-seamer pouring in to the knees gets flared foul – highest velo so far – then that loopy, rolling curveball at 75 that was probably going to hang high is popped up to shallow right for another easy out.  Brett Wallace looks at that curveball at 70 MPH this time for strike one, but that one was a little sharper.

Maeda-CurveballNice weapon to have that as a first-pitch strike.  Curve again at 71 dips low, then Maeda tries to pound him inside with a fastball and it nips Wallace’s jersey for a HBP.  “LOSE FIVE POUNDS IMMEDIATELY OR GET OUT OF MY BUILDING, LIKE NOW!”  Stupid fatties.  Anyway, Christian Bethancourt takes a little slider on the inside edge 0-1, fastball at 90 goes low, Maeda gets a late whiff on an outside fastball 1-2, then 90 MPH gets Bethancourt swinging to end the inning.

Maeda-Fastball-1And that whiff right there made Maeda look like he’s throwing 97.  Yeesh.

Third Inning: Moving quickly through the order this first time through, and Alexi Amarista follows suit and ground the first pitch right to Chutley for an easy first out.  Fastball to opposing pitcher Colin Rea is in there, curveball sweeping outside gets a huge wave and miss, slider goes low and outside, again a slider – but the more compact one – bends barely outside, fastball narrowly misses the low outside black, now 3-2 to the pitcher. Then Maeda gives him that tight slider again, and the little wrinkle gets a whiff, two down and 3 Ks.  Back to the top and Jay takes a two-seamer bareeeeeely missing the outside corner, slider is fouled back, 1-1 fastball on the hands is fouled back again, that compact slider gets nipped back foul, then we get a perfect example of why this matchup needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  Just watch this GIF:

Maeda-Fastball-2A.J. Ellis wants a high fastball 1-2, and Maeda misses right down the middle.  And even at only 91 MPH, Jon Jay made it look like he was protecting the plate from an Aroldis Chapman fastball.  He wasn’t even close!  And that was sooooo hittable (although re-watching the GIF, “right down the middle” might be a smidge harsh)!  Then again, Padres ARE in the Dodgers division, so not like Maeda won’t have this matchup another time or two…

Fourth Inning: Still scoreless and Myers takes strike one, fastball is outside, that big curveball at 73 is outside, slider is cut on late and fouled, 92 MPH on the four-seamer barely misses low and outside, then 92 again in the zone but nice and low gets a swinging K for the first out.  Lord the Padres are baaaaad.  Fastball way outside to Kemp, hanging slider gets a late swing and miss, a better slider but one that looked pretty hittable again gets another whiff 1-2, then fastball on the outer half at 92 is hit pretty well to center, but Joc Pederson gets it on the run for the second out.  Then what looked like a first-pitch change-up to Solarte is popped out to shallow right and caught by Chutley to end the inning.

Fifth Inning: Despite still being a 0-0 game, Maeda is back on the mound after a lengthy delay after the ump got hit in the nethers with a foul tip on a bunt attempt in the top of the frame, and had to leave the game.  Yikes, don’t they wear cups?!  So we’ll see if that has any impact on his performance, and first pitch is an 89 MPH fastball right down the middle, and Upton smashes it to center for a single and the first hit allowed.  Two-seamer to Wallace is fouled just out of play to left, the big bender this time all the way down at 69 MPH goes too low, fastball low, 2-1 is a two-seamer to runs way low and outside and Upton steals second base.  What a year Bossman is having…  Wallace chases ball four  – a high fastball – and nicks it back foul, then a slider in the zone is almost grounded through the infield, but Chutley making all the plays gets it in the gap and gets Wallace by a step.  Unfortunately Upton is at third with one out, and slider is in the dirt to Bethancourt, 1-0.  Fastball is well low, nice tight slider at 82 gets a whiff breaking off the outside edge, 2-1 is a carbon copy whiff on that outside slider, then slider again would’ve been an absolutely routine groundout to short in a normal situation, but with the infield in it shoots through and Upton scores on an RBI single.  So down 0-1, and Maeda drops that hammer curveball in there for strike one to Amarista, then a fastball is hit to Utley and the Dodgers almost turn a beautiful DP but Amarista beats the throw.  Runner at first with two down and Rea swings over a first-pitch slider, then Maeda goes to that curveball and just rolls in a hanger that Rea hits well to center for a single.  Ugh, can’t do that!  Now two on and slider barely misses the backdoor to Jay, then an ugly fastball goes low and in and missed Ellis’ set-up spot by about 3 feet, 2-0.  Fastball again is way low, 3-0 and Maeda is losing it.  Fastball catches the outside black 3-1, then slider misses the outside corner again for a walk and the bases are loaded.  Danger zone now with Myers fouling off an outside fastball, Maeda goes higher and gets a whiff upstairs with the fastball, again staying upstairs and Myers fouls it back, yet again staying high at 92 MPH is fouled off again, then the first slider of the at bat is flared to right, and Yasiel Puig has to dive charging in and misses it, ending up scoring…  All.  3.  Baserunners.  Ohhhhh man.  Maeda misses to Kemp, gets the outside corner with a fastball, 1-1 fastball on the hands nipped back foul, then a hanging slider that stayed high is popped to center, and the nightmare after the delay is over.  It would end up being the end for Maeda, but the Dodgers would pick him up after being down 4-0 and hang him with a no decision.

Final Line:  ND  5.0 IP  84 Pitches (54 Strikes)  4 ER  4 Hits  1 Walk  5 K  Gamescore: 47   Gamescore+: 50.8

Final Analysis: Mannnn, that 5th inning just shows how marginal and fast things can change; cruising through a start then having it all fall to pieces.  It was very, VERY unlucky though, with a lengthy delay between the 4th and 5th innings due to the ump getting hurt, then an RBI single through an infield-in alignment, a very close play on a double-play, and a bloop triple that could’ve just been a single if Puig help up on it…  All in all, I’m very happy the Gamescore+ valuation is signifying what it should – Maeda was pitching better than the numbers look.  Hurray for stats!

Maeda’s arsenal is all over the place – off-speed in fastball counts, fastballs with two strikes, etc. – but the broadcast brought up he had been going away from his fastball too much lately and he wanted to use it more this start.  He certainly kept that game plan all the way through with his four-seamer 89-92 and two-seamer with nice movement in that same range used frequently.  The slider looks to be his main off-speed, with a few variants – one a nice-and-tight break like that strikeout GIF on Kemp, and another a big bender than is effectively a fast-curveball.  Maeda’s “real” curveball is a slow roller and a nice “show-me” pitch for strike one, but if a hitter can see it coming, it’s not sharp enough to be anything other than that slow change-of-pace offering.  Maeda’s least-thrown pitch is his change-up, and I only saw 3 or 4 in this start.  Maybe he’s leaning off that one a little bit and relying on his plus slider.

Microcosms – it’s the theme of this article!  His first 8 games have seemed to be a microcosm of what I thought his 2016 season would be like, and this outing was a microcosm of his start in the MLB.  Mowin’ em down, then having some tough luck.  He had 4 perfect innings minus hitting Wallace’s jersey, but the 5th was more a comedy of missteps than getting pounding.  That said, he did walk a guy, lost his command a tad at the end/he’s gotta be able to pitch after long delays should the Dodgers ever put up a crooked number, and this is the Padres.  I wish they had give Myers a single and a 2-base error on Puig though…

I certainly didn’t see anything that would worry me moving forward that Maeda can’t be a 3.30 ERA kinda guy with maybe 8ish Ks per 9, so if someone is fed up with the string of bad starts lately, I might try to buy pretty low.  I could see him being dropped in the shallower leagues too – he still needs to be owned.  And to you commenters that yelled at me for not having him top-40 – trust the system!  Although I know I did have him 60ish in the preseason… So I know I did stand to be corrected a little bit!

Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Jake Arrieta, CHC
3 Chris Sale, CWS
4 Max Scherzer, WAS
5 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
6 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
7 Jose Fernandez, MIA
8 Madison Bumgarner, SF
9 Corey Kluber, CLE
10 Gerrit Cole, PIT
11 David Price, BOS
12 Jon Lester, CHC
13 Jacob deGrom, NYM
14 Danny Salazar, CLE
15 Johnny Cueto, SF
16 Taijuan Walker, SEA
17 Drew Smyly, TB
18 Yu Darvish, TEX
19 Chris Archer, TB
20 Jeff Samardzija, SF
21 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
22 Carlos Martinez, STL
23 Felix Hernandez, SEA
24 Joe Ross, WAS
25 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
26 Carlos Rodon, CWS
27 Cole Hamels, TEX
28 Steven Matz, NYM
29 Aaron Nola, PHI
30 Jose Quintana, CWS
31 Zack Greinke, ARI
32 Vincent Velasquez, PHI
33 Justin Verlander, DET
34 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
35 Rich Hill, OAK
36 Matt Harvey, NYM
37 Drew Pomeranz, SD
38 Jason Hammel, CHC
39 Ian Kennedy, KC
40 Marcus Stroman, TOR
41 Michael Wacha, STL
42 Francisco Liriano, PIT
43 Kenta Maeda, LAD
44 Jordan Zimmermann, DET
45 Jaime Garcia, STL
46 Patrick Corbin, ARI
47 Wei-Yin Chen, MIA
48 Lance McCullers, HOU
49 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
50 Kevin Gausman, BAL
51 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
52 John Lackey, STL
53 Julio Teheran, ATL
54 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
55 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
56 Chris Tillman, BAL
57 Sonny Gray, OAK
58 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
59 Tyler Glasnow, PIT
60 J.A. Happ, TOR
61 Matt Moore, TB
62 Jake Odorizzi, TB
63 Nate Karns, SEA
64 Rick Porcello, BOS
65 Marco Estrada, TOR
66 Tyler Duffey, MIN
67 Yordano Ventura, KC
68 Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
69 Tanner Roark, WAS
70 James Shields, SD
71 Alex Wood, LAD
72 Jameson Taillon, PIT
73 Adam Conley, MIA
74 Junior Guerra, MIL
75 Juan Nicasio, PIT
76 Michael Pineda, NYY
77 Adam Wainwright, STL
78 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
79 Mike Fiers, HOU
80 Raisel Iglesias, CIN
81 Robbie Ray, ARI
82 Collin McHugh, HOU
83 Edinson Volquez, KC
84 Hector Santiago, LAA
85 Blake Snell, TB
86 Steven Wright, BOS
87 Jerad Eickhoff, PHI
88 Scott Kazmir, LAD
89 Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
90 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
91 Shelby Miller, ARI
92 Sean Manaea, OAK
93 Josh Tomlin, CLE
94 Jon Gray, COL
95 Andrew Cashner, SD
96 Mike Leake, STL
97 Derek Holland, TEX
98 Colby Lewis, TEX
99 Michael Fulmer, DET
100 Ervin Santana, MIN

Dropped Out: Jose Berrios, MIN (I still like his long-term upside, but I think the Twinkies take their time to iron him out and we don’t get too much this year), Lucas Giolito, WAS (30:22 K:BB in AA isn’t gonna get you a promotion any time soon…), Jon Niese, PIT (I know he just had an OK game, but he has a target on his back for those younguns), Matt Andriese, TB (wasn’t a huge fan, but he was only at 98 last week for a singular showing in my ranks), Tyson Ross, SD (still no timetable and not throwing and it doesn’t even sound like he’s close; yeesh)

  • I made a few minor tweaks up top, but no dramatic changes.  Didn’t want you thinking I’m lazy!
  • Still have faith in Joe Ross, who was cruising until he gave up a homer Saturday night.  He still pitches in the best division to pitch in, for by far the best team within it, in a good pitcher’s park.
  • Carlos Martinez is maintaining velocity, but the results haven’t been there yet this year, especially the Ks.  He did have that bout with the flu or the plague or herpes or whatever, but taking a deeper look, his two-seamer has been Dr. Jekyll Mr. Hyde from last year.  In 2015, he had a 8.6% strikeout rate with it, a .637 OPS and unreal .031 ISO off that pitch in 718 times thrown.  Thus far in 2016, he’s thrown it 164 times: 0% Ks – i.e. nary a strikeout – with a .905 OPS and .194 ISO.  If in the game log that pitch doesn’t improve the next few starts, he might take a big drop.
  • Looks like this latest scare for Steven Matz wasn’t a big deal, but you have to admit, my unexplainable preseason heebie -jeebies seem to be warranted.  He looked great though back on the mound.
  • I’ve been the ultimate flip-flopper on Justin Verlander.  Ranked him high, jumped off the bandwagon after the first few weeks, and now he looks good again with the velo back up.  So apparently this is when it’ll all fall apart for him again…
  • So I’m trying my hardest to figure out how the hell Julio Teheran is good again.  It’s weirder than marathoning The Walking Dead to catch up, and seeing who Rick is hooking up with now.  Just.  Plain.  Weird.  Anyway, taking a look at his Pitch Values and in 2014 – his one true stand out season – his fastball was a +11.6 in Fangraphs’ pitch values valuation (I don’t know the best way to write this – it’s basically on a scale of + or – 30 runs and is kinda an abstract evaluation – but bear with me…) while never being above 2.0 in any previous year until now.  So 2014 really was an outlier with his heater.  It’s only 2.3 now with diminished velocity, but it’s still higher than other seasons.  That said, his slider is a little faster than last year and has a value of 3.5 – identical to that career year in 2014.  And rightly so, he’s throwing his slider more than he ever has in his career.  As long as his elbow holds together, I think he can be pretty decent, just don’t expect many wins.
  • I was admittedly wrong to not have Alex Wood ranked last week, but I’m still not fully a believer yet.  Yes – he did just mow through the awful Padres with the 13 Ks – and the strikeouts are up and he’s on a hell of a run.  I’d probably nab him in most 12ers or deeper, however I still worry about how much he relies on his deception and he’s seemed to be in-and-out of his mechanics the past few years.
  • I’m still really hesitant on Marco Estrada, but he’s making it work right now with his new game plan of attacking high in the zone.  Albeit with low velocity…  I dunno how long it’ll be until opposing hitters make the adjustment…
  • Yeah, Jameson Taillon has been UNBELIEVABLE in AAA, with a 1.82 ERA 0.81 WHIP and 9.3 K rate.  I still think Glasnow has the highest ceiling, but both are easily stashable if you have room.
  • Junior Guerra is my BOY!  Told y’all!  Or is it ya’ll…  The fact I don’t know how to spell it proves how un-Southern I am…
  • Don’t look now, but James Paxton is pitching decent in AAA with a much better K:BB (9.5:3.0) than we’ve seen in the Majors.  I can never quit my big Canadian!

With this start yesterday, is there still any Maeda mania left?!  And what ranks do I need to be sure and change when I’m back in two weeks?  Shoot your comments below, and happy pitching Razzball Nation!

  1. Hisashi says:
    (link)

    Do you think Iwakuma bounces back? I mean his peripheral numbers say so but not sure. Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Hisashi: Meh, he did move down for me this week, but still at 58 ROS means I think he can get “a little” better. My rank also builds in some injury concern as the Dodgers signed him at first then ended up voiding it.

  2. knucks says:
    (link)

    Might as well start writing up some more Guerra hype now, throwing against ATL this week!!

    Great write-up brutha

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @knucks: hell yea! Another 10+ Ks, let’s see it Junior! Preciate it man!

  3. Timmer says:
    (link)

    Would Franco or Conforto be a fair trade for Darvish? What if I had to throw Hendricks in there too.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Timmer: Yeah I think both are fair, I lovvvvve Conforto though. I’d probably rather trade Franco, and if throwing in Hendricks made that happen I would still do it

  4. Harry says:
    (link)

    JB, Ross has been getting hit hard in his last three starts but his era sits at 2.70 with a 1.24 whip. However, his fip is at 3.41, xfip is at 4.02 and siera is at 4.19. My question is where do you think he perform at as far as his projections are concerned for the rest of the season and what is his trade value?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Harry: I still think things get better, I still trust what I see with my eye with his stuff, he has some bad luck indicators and was cruising the other day until that homer late. I still think he can be a 3.10 ERA 1.10 WHIP 7.5-8.0 Ks/9 kinda guy with good wins. His trade value right now is prob pretty low after some bad starts

  5. We're Out Of Room says:
    (link)

    Just checking in, nice lil blurb on Paxton. I’d love to see him fulfill his promise, not sure with Karns pitching well there’s a spot for him, but I’d be quick to add him if there were.I rode with him the majority of last year and had hoped he’d beat out Karns in the spring.

    What kind of potential do you see Reyes having for the Cards, now that his served his suspension for being a stoner, like that really gave him a hand eye coordination advantage lol, I’m curious if he’s worth watching. Tallion is also available in my league, along with Snell, but Glasnow has been rostered for awhile. Just dont have space for a guy not pitching right now.

    I’m patiently waiting to see if your Brew Crew can make room for SS Arcia too. Be sure to give me a heads up when that’s about to go down lol.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @We’re Out Of Room: Hah thanks! Yeah me too man… I agree it’ll prob take an injury there.

      Hahahaha, I’ve heard he could push for a rotation spot soon, but I dunno. I would be conservative in ROS terms, but LOVE his upside. Def worth watching, but I like all 3 you mention better.

      Hah I will, but they have no reason to rush him, I don’t think too soon

      • We're Out Of Room says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin:

        So you still think Chen is worth keeping, his K:BB ratio is still good but he had a rough outing tonight. Not really much on the wire from an SP standpoint tbh…Moore, Guerra, Fiers or stash guys like Snell, Tallion, Reyes. My staff isnt exactly stellar, so not sure I need to drop an arm unless its for an upgrade.

        There are a few bats out there Lawrie, Saunders, ARod, Bour but Id likely have to drop Maybin to add one. Roster is below, let me know if you see anything. Quite a few underperforming SPs so dont know that theres a move there, at least for whos available. More curious as to whether or not you like any of those bats over Maybin.

        ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS daily moves and 4 keepers per season

        C Molina
        1B Cabrera
        2B Daniel Murphy
        3B Seager
        SS A. Russell
        OF Stanton
        OF Springer
        OF Polanco
        UTIL OF Burns
        UTIL OF/DH Sano
        Bench 2B/SS Castro
        Bench Maybin
        DL Pollock

        SP Salazar
        SP Corbin
        RP Kimbrel
        RP Melancon
        P T. Walker
        P Odorizzi
        P C.Rodon
        P Chen
        Bench SP Pomeranz
        Bench SP Kennedy
        Bench RP McGee
        DL SP E-Rod

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @We’re Out Of Room: Yeah I’d probably still hold on, historically the Rays have been good against lefties… If any of those prospects got the call today I’d prob make the swap, but so hard to have an unsure 0 for a while, I’d hold Chen.

          Nah I’m riding Maybin while hot, doing it in a few leagues. Odorizzi is def cuttable for someone hot/streamers, and still pretty meh on Castro

          • We're Out Of Room says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin: Thanks man, yeah Castro isnt exactly setting the world on fire, but Russell has been inconsistent too, so Im hesitant to cut Casto with no other SS eligible player on my roster. Odorizzi didnt look too bad tonight, maybe he can bounce back. I actually need him, Rodon, Corbin, etc. etc. to become more consistent lol.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @We’re Out Of Room: I hear ya, but having two blah SS rather than sticking with one or streaming that spot might kinda hurt ya down the road, but I think you can take a few more weeks to asses. Hah yeah def on Corbin, I’m getting wary on him. I think Rodon will be fine tho

              • We're Out Of Room says:
                (link)

                @JB Gilpin: Agreed… if I thought I could package Castro and a player for a SS upgrade I’d do it in a heartbeat.Hopefully an opportunity will eventually present itself.

                • We're Out Of Room says:
                  (link)

                  @We’re Out Of Room: Would you trade my struggling Sano and SS Casto for Lorenzo Cain and Trea Turner?

                  • We're Out Of Room says:
                    (link)

                    @We’re Out Of Room: Nevermind he would only do it with Russell(not Castro) and thats me giving way too much imo. Then he countered with Murphy and Maybin for Cain and Turner…don’t particularly like that one either.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
                      (link)

                      @We’re Out Of Room: Ah, yeah not feeling great on that. And definitely a no on the Murphy deal I kinda buy Murphy can be pretty good

  6. Five-On-One says:
    (link)

    Hey – Thanks for all the work. I see you are still a Rodon buyer. Although I can tell you no one in my league values him anywhere near as high as you do – they are all offering me waiver wire crap to take him off my hands.

    I know your rankings are all ROS, but if you could give me your view on a couple of 2-start SPs for the coming week, I would apprecdiate it.

    D. Duffy – vWSOX (SON $9.3) and vTB (SON $5.5)
    Bucholz – vCOL (SON $11.0) and @BAL (SON $3.9)

    And would you start either or both over Odorizzi (vNYY $7.3) or Wood (@NYM $4.7)

    thanks for the help.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Five-On-One: Thanks for readin! Yeah I know I’m probably a little on an island with him, but I am a believer in the stuff. I def would be passing on junky offers.

      Sure, I’ve never been a big Buchholz believer, so probably passing there… Duffy… Ugghhhhh always kinda liked him, but he doesn’t pitch deep into games… I think I’m rolling the two 1-start guys even though I usually roll the dice on 2-pitch guys when I can

      • Five-On-One says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Speaking of Rodon, SON hates his next start (-$3.4 @KC). Would you start him over any of those mentioned above?

    • F.K.A. Ralph says:
      (link)

      @Five-On-One: Buchholz pitches against COL on Thursday, so he’s not a two-start SP this week.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Five-On-One: @F.K.A. Ralph: Yeah I’m still sticking with Rodon, I didn’t look at the sched but if BUchholz is indeed only 1 start he’s not close with the rest of the group

      • Five-On-One says:
        (link)

        @F.K.A. Ralph: Yeah – I am in a funky league that starts its week on Wednesday, so we have different 2-start guys than most other leagues.

  7. Gonzo_The_Great says:
    (link)

    Weird question – better stash for remainder of this season Giolito or Garret Richards?

    My team is a mess and I’m grasping at straws that someone will come back and bail me out.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Gonzo_The_Great: Hah weird question for sure! I think it’s Giolito – at least he’s healthy, even though not pitching well…

    • Muskysmell says:
      (link)

      @Gonzo_The_Great:
      Garret Richards? No way he comes back from Tommy John this year. He won’t be even doing baseball related activities.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Gonzo_The_Great: @Muskysmell: He decided to forego the surgery for now and is attempting to rehab it with PRP injection

  8. Matt says:
    (link)

    Finally sold Harvey (plus Blackmon) for Bumgarner and Odubel. Call me boring, call me desperate… it’s nice to have that feeling of stability once again. Let his rebound be someone else’s concern.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Matt: Hah well Blackmon might be best in the deal though… I think it’s about even

      • Matt says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Absolutely agree, but felt I had to double down on pitching. Can’t afford to be ranked 9/10 and 10/10 in era/whip and keep letting single bad performances sink me with a staff that already includes JoFer, Cole, Lester, Carrasco.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Matt: Yeah I would feel pretty good with that rotation! Maybe it’ll all normalize and you’ll get back to 3s and 4s by July and you can move one of dem aces :)

        • The Harrow says:
          (link)

          @Matt: yikes, overdrafted that much pitching and yr 2nd worst at best in the ratios?

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @Matt: @The Harrow: Could be a keeper… Or auction…

  9. the tone ranger says:
    (link)

    hey! I know you love conforto and so do I..but would it be crazy to trade a $38 Stanton for a $6 conforto I know Stanton is the man but can conforto be a 100/30/100 .280 guy???

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @the tone ranger: Standard $260 budget and is there any inflation? Yeah I totally buy Conforto could do that by 2017. Might be hard this year bc they keep friggin sitting him v lefties

  10. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    Good to see the Ross K’s return, it’s just luck karma evening out now- hey why does that never happen when I’m in casinos! Hah. Doubled up on him now getting him in my other keeper where I’m rebuilding this awful inherited team. I’ll likely lock him down for 3 ($8) or 2 ($6) more years in the offseason.

    Was getting high (not that kinda high any more) on Jon Gray then he goes and throws a stinker away from Coors! Gah, finding it hard to trust him now, he worth keeping hold of in 12ers?

    Yikes that is a big change in C-Mart’s fastball effectiveness, just traded for him not too long ago too. So yeah so many pitching stinkers for me so far this year, though Nate Karns is starting to look pretty legit (wha? I know invisible man, I don’t understand it either…), you buying?

    Got my tickets for the championship playoff footy final dude! 4pm sat UK time kick off, be watching!

    • F.K.A. Ralph says:
      (link)

      @Swfcdan: My two cents on Karns (I own him in one league) is that he’s a mixed bag as far as his peripherals go.

      He’s about evenly split between ground balls and fly balls, which should generally be OK in Safeco and the AL West more generally. He has been giving up a lot of line drives (compared to previous years) — 27% of his balls in play are line drives.

      That said, he’s getting more swings and misses — 10.6% swinging strike rate is really good. He’s also demonstrating decent enough control — 44% of his pitches are in the zone. that’s about the same as Drew Smyly, but Smyly has only allowed 2.25 BB/9 while Karns has allowed 3.52 K/9.

      For those two metrics, Zack Greinke might be his best comp — Greinke has a 44.5% zone percent and 10.8% swinging strike rate. Greinke has only allowed 1.8 BB/9. Greinke has had a 23% line drive rate. This explains why Karns and Grenke have nearly identical FIPs (3.49 vs 3.57), but Karns has an ERA that is more than a run lower — 3.33 vs 4.59.

      I think you’re getting from Karns what you should expect going forward. Greinke should improve considerably. Hey! how did this end up being about Greinke?

      • Swfcdan says:
        (link)

        @F.K.A. Ralph: Guess you were the invisible man, thanks!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @F.K.A. Ralph: @Swfcdan: Yeah what’s exciting with Ross too in a keeper is he JUST turned 23 2 days ago. Soooooo young. Def like him now and for the future a ton.

          Mehhhh, yeah not sold on Gray as anything but a streamer, I’d prob stream the spot. And I still think C-Mart can be better, but was just an interesting observation…

          Hahaha Ralph, yeah that’s an interesting thought there. I agree, Karns is about where he should be. Maybe a smidge lower K rate and .10 or .20 more on the ERA

          • Swfcdan says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin: It shows the effect of Coors on pitching prospects re. Jon Gray. He is a top tier pitching prospect with great stuff, yet because of Coors no one cares about him. I still think he can be a damn good road play, might need to wait some starts before he builds some consistency though- i.e. bad at home, great on the road hah. I’ve inherited another one in J Hoffman in my keeper team I took over, will badly try and move him but think I may find no ones biting! Kinda sucks as he’s too good to drop (120 prospects owned) but am not excited about him long term at altitude.

            You missed my point about my team Sheffield Wednesday playing in the footy final this weekend against Hull at Wembley man, called something like the £50 mil match with the winner reaching the Premiership. Make sure you try and watch it online!

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @Swfcdan: Oh damn yeah I did! Reading too fast! Go SWFC!!!!!!!! I’ll be on vacation actually on Saturday… But will follow the score for sure and screw Hull City!

              Gray has unbelievable stuff, but I think still need refinement on the road too. I own Tyler Anderson in the REL and I’m not too excited, but virtually no SP are available in the active player pool – if any.

  11. Fister Furbush says:
    (link)

    I’m trying to buy low on Rizzo. Currently have Pujols at First Base.

    I’m offering JD and Lester for Rizzo.

    Rizzos babip is insanely low while his contact rate, k/bb% and his OPS are still where they need to be for him to repeat a run like last season.

    JD is in my utility while Trout, Cespedes and Springer are in my outfield.

    Lester is my number 5 pitcher. 10 team H2H points.

    The rest of my pitching staff is
    Sale
    Stndergaard
    Bumgarner
    Cole
    Matz…

    He needs pitching help and outfield depth.

    Do you think this a fair trade for the both of us? Or should I offer more for Rizzo?

    Thanks JB.

    • Fister Furbush says:
      (link)

      @Fister Furbush:

      By the way,

      The other Guys first base and utility are E5 and Big Papu.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Fister Furbush: Yeah I was about to say, is Rizzo really a buy low? I certainly wouldn’t take down what you offered just yet… I think it might take a little more, but in the art of negotiation you don’t wanna tip your hand and offer more without hearing back!

  12. Papa Jean Segura says:
    (link)

    in a points league would you trade Darvish for Scherzer? Have him stashed in two leagues

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Papa Jean Segura: Ummm, YEAH! Def would, even being high on Darvish

  13. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    I’ve got a nice comfy lead at the moment in my H2H standings and looking for guys to stash over the next couple weeks who will help out come playoff time. Would you drop a guy like Odorrizi (decidedly meh so far) to hold Taillon for the week or two before he’s up purely for upside purposes? Through some nice trading/drafting, my pitchers are pretty stacked, so I’ve been viewing a guy like Odorizzi as droppable anyway…

    Price
    Carrasco
    Salazar
    Taijuan
    Yu
    Quintana
    Pom
    Hill
    Tillman
    Supergreene! (just kidding)

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Hahaha Super Greene is always the answer! Yeah with those nice pitchers up top, totally agree on a stash. And agree Odorizzi is very meh. I’d nab Taillon

  14. Awful Aces! says:
    (link)

    Rank um ROS Redraft..

    Keuchel
    Archer
    Gray
    Harvey

    • F.K.A. Ralph says:
      (link)

      @Awful Aces!: Is this a trick question? the answer to this question is literally the topic of JB’s post.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Awful Aces!: @F.K.A. Ralph: Hah thanks Ralph, yes ranks above are directly for ROS redraft

  15. TTRA1N says:
    (link)

    I think Matz will continue rocket up your boards. He easily a top 20 arm with upside. His 1st start was his only bad start and he is the Mets 2nd best pitcher going forward.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @TTRA1N: Very possible – it’s the elbow man. I had this weird feeling on him pre-ranking him. If this was like his 3rd full season and had this elbow blip, I prob wouldn’t be hesitant, but certainly agree he’s top-20 capable, if not 15. This arm issue might push for a shutdown later on too

  16. uncdrew says:
    (link)

    It’s y’all.

    You use y’all for one person or a handful of people. You use “all y’all” when it’s about 8 or more people.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @uncdrew: Hahaha thanks for the insight man, I need it, even though I’m FROM NC! Had parents from the north…

  17. Jeremy says:
    (link)

    14 team/all mlb/points league

    Hisashi Iwakuma,Edinson Volquez,and Addison Russell for Colin McHugh and Corey Seager

    Thoughts

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jeremy: Hmmmm, obviously Seager>Russell. I think all the pitchers are kinda meh though. I would take Seager side

      • Jeremy says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Yeah that’s what I was thinking. Have Yu coming off the DL so might as well get some value before I drop anyone

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Jeremy: Oh nice! Yeah that’s a big boost to your rotation for sure!

  18. Shark says:
    (link)

    Jaime Garcia only pitches poorly if/when he’s hurt. Count on it. I’ll be surprised if the podcast comes out and Grey is not busting on you for keeping Garcia ranked at #45. Don’t you read his stuff ??… ;-))

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Shark: Hahahaha he busted me on Joe Ross again, SHOCKER! Yeah this is worrisome for him, I’m giving him one more week, and if really bad again, he’ll take a tumble

  19. Moneyball says:
    (link)

    Rodon ahead of Matz… now I’ve seen it all.

    (I own both.)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Moneyball: Elbow/innings issue, nothing more nothing less. Per game, I would CERTAINLY start Matz over Rodon

  20. Scott says:
    (link)

    Drop Eickhoff for Junior’s next start? Nl only, also have DeGrom, Velasquez, and Chen, and DeSclafani on dl.

    • You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow says:
      (link)

      @Scott: Yes, Eickhoff is @CHC and is liable to get creamed

  21. Chris says:
    (link)

    Thanks as always JB!
    Would you drop Valbuena for White?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Sure thing man! Yeah I would go White and/or stream hot hands ROS, I dunno if White is consistent enough to play when cold

      • Chris says:
        (link)

        Thanks! It’s a weekly change league but I like the idea of streaming. It’s a 14 team league so not a ton out there. Lind is available are you fan for the rest of the year? What the hell happened? seattle’s ball park happened is my guess!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Chris: Ah gotcha, yeah I would still prob try and find hot bats that play 7 games in non-rain situations as best you can tell haha. Meh, yeah Lind seemed to kinda over perform last year with some decent hits vs. lefties, but not playing against lefties and a tough park for power is def hurting…

  22. Chris says:
    (link)

    Tyler white of course

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Hah yup I got ya!

      • Chris says:
        (link)

        Just picked up Reyes. Alex I believe? Adam lol pitcher for the cards. I hate the Cards! LOL Big Brewer fan. We’ll get there soon enough. Earliest call up for Reyes? Early July possible?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Chris: Yes F the Cards! Altthough in the REL – my fave dynasty now – I traded for Alex Reyes to rebuild haha. Ummm, sure yeah I could see July… I worry they play it pretty slow though and/or gave him the Wainwright/Car-Mart treatment and throw him in the bullpen at first

  23. Jimbob sooner says:
    (link)

    Which side?

    Franco, smyly, conforto. Or
    Correa wacha

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jimbob sooner: Ohhhhhh good one. Eesh, how deep the league? In 10 or 12ers I think I’ll take best in deal Correa, in any deeper I think I’ll take the depth of the top side

      • Jimbob soonerd says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin:

        Its a 12 teamer h2h points. I have a lot of pitching so I can afford I think

        Bumgarner, kluber, liriano, porcello, McCullers, gausman, walker, Teheran and ryu in my dl

        I have kang and Addison Russell up the middle right now. So I’d slide kang to 3b

        My offense killed me last week with Stanton and rizzo doing nothing

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Jimbob soonerd: Ugh yeah Stanton I could see the streakiness, this low average for Rizzo is indeed odd… Yeah gimme Correa side for you, man that is a crazy bunch of hitters!

  24. Sing Us a Vogelsong You're the Pineda Man says:
    (link)

    From a bonafide English teacher from the great state of Alabama: it’s y’all, like you all. All you do is shorten the you to a “y'” and then all.

    I genuinely think Rodon is turning a corner; AL Central is subtly tough.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Sing Us a Vogelsong You’re the Pineda Man: Hahaha cool thanks! Yeah was pretty sure it was y’all with the apostrophe replacing “ou” from you, but was more fun to have a stream on consciousness there :) Oh yeah, it’s not the easiest division for sure… Not quite AL East tho!

  25. moobs says:
    (link)

    Who is the safest in terms of Ws and QSs ROS– Kennedy, Liriano or Gio?

    Is this about the right tier to target with Dyson?

    Also Boxberger or Dyson ROS? I’ve got Colombe and Box DLed along with Chapman and Rondon. Need to deal a closer for starter.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @moobs: Wow, I actually think in those stats alone it’s Kennedy. Usually goes deep and Liriano is a wild card with the control and Gio has historically had trouble going deep a lot of his career. Yeah for sure, I think Dyson is a perfectly fair offer for all those. I’ll lean Dyson right now over Box just bc Rays can go several different ways. Rangers seem to lock on one guy

  26. PeteRosesRevenge says:
    (link)

    Good Column Grey ….I’m thinking about dropping Tyson Ross…..Joe Ross.. Wie Chen and Maeda are all out there what you do you thing pick up Joe Ross?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @PeteRosesRevenge: Hah well I’m no Grey, but definitely dropping Tyson Ross! I would nab Maeda for him and hold Joe Ross

      • PeteRosesRevenge says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin:

        Oops Sorry JB….my bad….Who would you grab between Maeda or Joe Ross?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @PeteRosesRevenge: Haha Still gonna begrudgingly hold Joe Ross.

          • PeteRosesRevenge says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin:

            THanks, i added him but as a phillies fan if he fails i won’t be heart broken!

  27. AU! says:
    (link)

    Who do you like more in a h2h dynasty league (k/9, era, whip, qs, sv are cats)? Team is built to win now. Cueto or Darvish? Both SP cost about the same to keep longterm.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @AU!: Uggghhhh. I think they’re about dead even ROS, since Darvish will crush k/9. Cueto should win QS, but Darvish should be OK there too. I think since it’s so even right now, I would take Darvish for his future as well

  28. B the Esq. says:
    (link)

    This year and long term keeper….rank em Giolitto, Tailon, Alex Reyes, Berrios.

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @B the Esq.: I might be biased, but I kinda think Reyes over Giolito right now. Reyes, Giolito for sure 1 and 2. Taillon def more this year, Berrios long term. I’ll lean Taillon 3rd for now

  29. Greg says:
    (link)

    Hey JB….good job. I’m streaming Junior G, and Colby has been doing too well to ignore, here is my question. … 14 team h2h, my staff is Bum, Darvish, Matz, Stroman, Rodon, the aforementioned two, and stashing Glasnow. Wondering if I can afford to get greedy and stash Taillon too. Guess what I’m asking is, where would those two be ranked if they are called up today? Thanks. Greg

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Greg: Thanks man! Glad Junior is helping some people out! I’d def have Glasnow higher if both were called on the same day, I think he has more upside. I know Taillon is mowing down AAA but still have a concern with the innings after he missed 3 yrs

      • Greg says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: I’m hearing some rumors that Glasnow doesn’t get called up first. In fact, hear Taillon gets called first, then when he hits innings limit, Glasnow.

        That makes holding him less palatable.

        Your thoughts?

        Also, your thoughts on Gausman? His ko rate is way too low for how much gas he brings. ..

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Greg: I don’t think it’ll only be Taillon then only Glasnow, I would think both get calls and can be in the rotation at the same time. It’s all speculation though, I’d lean Taillon is up first but only barely, and Glasnow is more dynamic. Hah, yeah some hard throwers just never can get Ks, I think he’s a decent pitcher with a smidge of upside, not huge on him, but think he can be a consistent fantasy SP4

  30. Raider says:
    (link)

    I was able to nab Yelich for Maeda 3 weeks ago, shipped the schomato while it was ripe!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Raider: Oh wow! Yeah at any point I would’ve easily taken the Yelich side, excellent schmatato dealing!

  31. Cheez Whit says:
    (link)

    Not sure how you have Lackey below the likes of Strohman, Kennedy, Chen, Corbin, Garcia, etc but good list overall.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Cheez Whit: Ummm, well he’s in that same milieu, I would say age and Cubs propensity to pinch hit early at times. BABIP is pretty low right now as well, I think some regression will come – not dramatic though.

  32. regan says:
    (link)

    Got Keutchel in my main league. It’s a keeper money league and i have him locked up for $9 for the next 2 years. I said i would trade him for a bag of dicks and the only offer is for McCullers. I don’t know much about him so i wanted to get some input. He is single handedly destroying my pitching so i kind of hate him. Should have listened to Grey! Fuck me in the fuck hole.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @regan: Hah we talked him in week 2 of the Pod saying sell immediately! I did pre-rank him decent though… What is McCullers’ keeper value? I actually don’t think that’s the worst offer for a keeper…

  33. Robert says:
    (link)

    Your favorite pitcher junior got the quick hook today. Think he could’ve gone 6

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Robert: Hah, ummmm maybe, he was a little wild and hitters weren’t chasing as much as the Cubs, and after going 113 pitches I think it made sense to be a little more conservative last night

  34. We're Out Of Room says:
    (link)

    So yeah…out of room above lol. Glad you agreed with me on trades, declined both. Maybin has been a pretty good pick up thus far, definitely helped me in the R’s category and OBP, however the steals haven’t materialized, well not since I picked him up anyway lol. Valencia is back on the wire, I know you’ve advocated dropping Castro, but would you do it for Valencia, he’s cooled off quite a bit imo, Bours still out there too. If I were to drop Castro, and anything happened to Russell, the waiver SS’s are Dannys Santana, Alcides Escobar, and Zack Cozart…sigh.

    Theres actually a guy in the league with Aybar as his SS but I cant figure out a deal I like to send him Castro. His O is meh, at least for targets that he may actually move, Jay Bruce probably being the only likely target and I have plenty of OF already. He has Kenly Jansen, amd Familia. I could try to package McGee and Casto for one of those closers. He also has Stroman…maybe Chen and Castor? Would either of those deals even be worth the trouble lol?

    • We're Out Of Room says:
      (link)

      @We’re Out Of Room: Also Semien was recently dropped too, suppose I could ad him over Castro or is that even an upgrade iyo?

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @We’re Out Of Room: Yeah I dunno if Maybin is necessarily a long-term play, it was more Murphy given up…

        Meh, yeah none of that is too interesting to me. Not huge on Semien either. I think yeah trying to turn it into a better closer makes sense.

        About to be gone for a week, so I won’t be pushing us out of room for a bit!

        • We're Out Of Room says:
          (link)

          @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the heads up, enjoy your time away, Im currently sitting at the OBX, drinking a cold one lol.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @We’re Out Of Room: Alaska was only “a little” bit colder haha

  35. Ryan741 says:
    (link)

    JB, just wondering what your thoughts are on Salazar rest of season vs. Darvish and Carrasco. I’m sure you have Carrasco ranked higher than Yu once they are both back, but do you think you move them ahead of Salazar? I guess I’m more wondering with Darvish since I’m getting trade offers for Salazar and I feel like I can still get another piece back (especially in a deal with Darvish) and get close to similar value ROS

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Ryan741: Right now I have them all really close as above, ranks 14-21. I think since Salazar is the only one who has been healthy the whole season, he’s the one for me right now. But both could jump him if they look strong and healthy their first two starts back. I would probably take Salazar for Yu right now

      • Ryan741 says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin how about Salazar compared to a guy like DeGrom? Salazar feels like he has bettere stuff but DeGrom has better division/league….

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Ryan741: Again it’s splitting hairs, I have deGrom 13 and Salazar 14, so I would narrowly take deGrom ROS

  36. Jedimasters says:
    (link)

    JB are you going to release a Pitcher Profile and updated top 100 list this week? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jedimasters: Nope, as mentioned up there I was on vacation and away from the internet most of last week :) but I’m back and the profile is about done for this afternoon!

      • Sue Sue Sudio says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin:

        2nd this, wei-yin chen missed “yu” last leake.

Comments are closed.