I promise I will get back to more fantasy baseball and/or stat related information next week, but I am Korean. [Jay’s Note: A man after my own heart!] There’s only so much I can do to fight the cultural impulses that plague me, namely gambling. I would never condone illegal sports gambling; after all, it is illegal in 46 states.
So, “we’re going to Vegas tonight…You bring something nice to wear.”
As we patiently stare at our lineups hoping that they would matter, or maybe just that teams would start putting injured players on the DL to enable us to make some free pickups, let’s take a look at some of the Vegas lines for the season and see where we should be placing our money. Only so much time left before the season begins and we have to get them in under the wire. (And, you know, if you can’t come with us to pretend Vegas, place your fake money bets in the comment section below!)
The World Series – Chicago Cubs
Also Braves and Phillies
The reigning champs are the favorites and well deserved. While it’s always tempting to take the defending World Series winners, remember that there are only 12 teams since 1903 that have won back to back titles (teams that won more than two in a row were only counted once). There hasn’t been a back to back champion since we entered the 2000s! Is it still weird to anyone else that it’s been 18 years since we left the ‘90s?
I digress… I’m taking the Cubs as my homer pick, obviously. After that, I’m looking for some teams with a nice return on investment and taking a pair of NL East teams in the Phillies +7500 and the Braves +17500.
The Phillies have a number of solid players with the potential for full season breakouts from both Rhys Hoskins and newly signed prospect, Scott Kingery. They have a pair of quality arms at the top of the rotation and new coaching staff led by Gabe Kapler that seems to be bucking the status quo of the old school Phillies regime.
The Braves have a number of exciting arms, a potential MVP candidate in Freddie Freeman, and a couple of amazing young hitters in Ozzie Albies and hopefully soon, Ronald Acuna. If nothing else, they’ll be fun to watch and are coming with a nice line.
AL Champion – Boston Red Sox +600
The Astros, Yankees, and Indians are the obvious picks, but they are also paying out like they are the obvious picks. So, give me the next best team coming at more than double the payout of the reigning champs, the Boston Red Sox. Sale’s a beast (even if he fades at the end of every season), David Price’s bounce back will be a big key, and the addition of J.D. Martinez gives them that big hitter in the middle of the lineup they were missing last year.
NL Champion – Arizona Diamondbacks +1400
$100 on the Diamondbacks pays out $1400. They have 3 top shelf pitchers, especially if you expect the humidor to have a substantial impact on the pitchers there. They lose J.D. Martinez from the playoff run at the end of last year, but the offense is still very solid with Goldschmidt, Lamb, and Pollock to build around. Plus, they have my guy Chris Owings.
AL Central – Cleveland Indians -550
Total chalk pick here. The Indians are really good in all aspects of the game, and I can’t see anyone beating them in the AL Central barring a few injuries to Cleveland. The Twins are competitive, but did little to improve, so I may take the White Sox at +3300 if I have to go away from the Tribe.
AL East – Boston Red Sox +130
I’m not giving odds to take the Yankees when the Red Sox over/under for wins is over 91.5.
AL West – Houston Astros -550
Same thought process as the Indians. If I have to go with somebody else, I think the Angels have enough interesting pieces that could fall into place.
NL Central – Milwaukee Brewers +550
I’m a Cubs fan. I wouldn’t be able to resist putting some down on my team, but the Brewers at +550 are an interesting bet here.
NL East – Washington Nationals -350
Fully admit this is where I would hedge my world series bets above because the Nats seem like they have 1 more season at the top of the NL East before the Phillies and Braves young players can bring them up to a division winning level. The potential departure of Harper from the division doesn’t hurt for 2019 either.
NL West
The Dodgers have an amazing MLB roster and more depth down in the minors just waiting for a chance. Seems like the easy pick here and not going at -550 like the ‘Stros and Indians.
Friend Picks
I gathered some picks from some of the people that I discuss baseball with on a daily basis to give you some other points of view. If you’re not already, give them a follow on Twitter and go find these podcasts and subscribe. Going to start with my co-host on Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports. (Donkey Teeth – @DonkeyTeeth87 – Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports Podcast – LennyMelnickFantasySports.com.)
Paul Martin – @PaultheMartin – Real Fake Baseball Podcast – Razzball
MikeItchenTable – “The Itch” – @PartyLikeMayans – Fantasy Futures Baseball Podcast
Walter McMichael – @realfakewalter – Real Fake Baseball Podcast – Big3Sports
My Pick
I’m anti South siders, but they won 67 games last year and they’ll have a full season of Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito (well, likely an innings restricted full season). They have Kopech waiting for his call, and maybe we get a glimpse of the mythical beast, Eloy Jimenez. I think that has to be worth two wins.
PECOTA
I also wanted to see how another projection system would compare with the Vegas lines to give me a few more teams to lay some money down on for the season. Give me a share of all the teams with a positive or negative difference of four or more games. I’m taking the over on the Rays, Phillies, Pirates, and White Sox and the under on the Rockies, Angels, and Royals on the under.
MBP – Most Ballin’est Player
NL MVP – Anthony Rendon, Rhys Hoskins, Ronald Acuna Jr.
In the Razzball staff pick article (https://razzball.com/the-official-2018-razzball-picks/), I picked Kris Bryant as my NL MVP and Mike Trout as my AL MVP, but this is about making money. Anthony Rendon is a rock in that lineup and if something would happen to Harper, I could see him carrying the mantle for them offensively. Rhys Hoskins may not live up to expectations in his sophomore season, but at +6000, he’s worth the gamble that the Phillies take a wild card and he carries them there. Last, I wouldn’t put much money down, but at +25000 you don’t have to make much of an investment. I was more surprised to see him on the listing than anything, but give me the rookie phenom Ronald Acuna Jr. and maybe he mashes like Trout (after the Braves get their extra year of control of course).
AL MVP – Corey Kluber, Andrew Benintendi, Byron Buxton
If Corey Kluber can put together a full season like his second half in 2017, he very well may find himself in the hunt for the rare pitcher MVP. There’s a non-zero chance that Andrew Benintendi is the best player on the Red Sox, and he’s coming at a nice profit. We’ve been waiting for Buxton, some of us have bought into the hype, two fingers pointed at this guy, and if he can lead the Twins to the playoffs or maybe even a division title….as Jermaine Dupri woudl say, “MBP, most ballin’est player.”
Prop Bets
While betting may be about making money, you also have to understand that gambling as a whole is very risky and should be fun for you. With that in mind, let’s look at some prop bets.
I’ll take the under on 43.5 home runs for Stanton. Yes, I know it’s Yankee Stadium and blah blah blah, but he’s never stayed healthy enough to hit 40 home runs until last year. So, while I don’t wish it upon anyone, I’m betting on injury.
Billy Hamilton
BHam has never hit the over on the 59.5 stolen bases and there’s talk about him moving down to the bottom of the order (where he belongs). I have a wager with my buddy Lenny Melnick that BHam steals at least 50, so I’m hoping to hit a bit of a middle here with a range of 9 from 50-59.
Kenley has over 40 saves in three of the last four years and the Dodgers are still the class of that division.
Good luck out there! May your sports gambling help fund your fantasy habit. I’d love to hear where you’re placing your money before the season begins. Leave them in the comments or send them to me on Twitter.
Written by Brandon ‘B_Don’ Myers. @DitkaSausagePod on Twitter. Co-Host of Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports podcast hosted by LennyMelnickFantasySports.com.
