If you were to predict the ace of the Astros staff in April — it would’ve been the Fram-Fram man wouldn’t it? Framber Valdez’s 1.72 ERA obviously isn’t sustainable, but his 2.59 FIP is showing me that maybe it’s not TOO far off from reality. The guy has improved drastically on his control (2 BB/9 compared to 5.6 last year) and has allowed only 1 HR in 31.1 IP this year. I’m a little worried about the walks and hits returning to previous numbers — but for this week he has two relatively good match-ups (vs LAA; vs OAK) and you should ride his hot hand. He could be up in Code Blue soon.
Code Green: This area is reserved for your Gerrit Cole’s, your Jacob deGrom’s, your Patrick Corbin’s when he is facing two weak opponents. I’m not even going to waste the lactic acid in typing about these guys. If you need me to tell you to start Shane Bieber in a two-start week you need more help than I can provide at this cost.
| Rank | Name | Team | L/R | ERA | OPP1 | OPS vL/vR | OPP2 | OPS vL/vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luis Castillo | CIN | R | 4.44 | @MIL | 0.603 | CHC | 0.767 |
| 2 | Trevor Bauer | CIN | R | 3.97 | @MIL | 0.603 | CHC | 0.767 |
| 3 | Lance Lynn | TEX | R | 1.37 | OAK | 0.747 | LAD | 0.828 |
| 4 | Chris Paddack | SDP | R | 4.26 | SEA | 0.690 | @COL | 0.749 |
| 5 | Julio Urias | LAD | L | 2.74 | @SF | 0.821 | @TEX | 0.654 |
| 6 | Jack Flaherty | STL | R | 3.12 | KC | 0.701 | CLE | 0.652 |
| 7 | Aaron Civale | CLE | R | 2.91 | MIN | 0.761 | @STL | 0.694 |
| 8 | Tyler Glasnow | TBR | R | 6.00 | TOR | 0.770 | @MIA | 0.715 |
Love:
- Jack Flaherty: The only reason Flaherty isn’t higher is the innings limit. His first start back he only threw 41 pitches which leads me to believe maybe he’ll be at 60 vs the Royals followed by 75-80 against the Indians. They’re nice match-ups, just temper your expectations for now.
Hate:
- Tyler Glasnow: I don’t hate Tyler Glasnow because he has a 6.00 ERA, he has a 6.00 ERA because I hate him. I will cut him some slack though — he had to face the Yankees twice who have been absolutely crushing right-handed pitching this year. The Blue Jays are a tough match-up too — they’re top-10 in team OPS vs righties — but Miami is 19th. This could be a mixed bag and he might fit better in tier 2 — but I’m giving him one last chance to be in tier 1 territory.
Code Blue: Now we’re getting interesting! These are your “not-quite-ready-for-code-green players.” These guys have either been performing really well and I’d still start them regardless of match-up — or have two easy match-ups that I can’t let you pass up their double-dip for this week.
| Rank | Name | Team | L/R | ERA | OPP1 | OPS vL/vR | OPP2 | OPS vL/vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | R | 3.23 | CIN | 0.734 | PIT | 0.544 |
| 10 | Jesus Luzardo | OAK | L | 3.67 | @TEX | 0.654 | @HOU | 0.820 |
| 11 | Jose Berrios | MIN | R | 4.75 | @CLE | 0.652 | @DET | 0.631 |
| 12 | Pablo Lopez | MIA | R | 2.42 | @WAS | 0.699 | TB | 0.770 |
| 13 | German Marquez | COL | R | 4.38 | @ARI | 0.733 | SD | 0.790 |
| 14 | Rich Hill | MIN | L | 4.7 | @CLE | 0.577 | @DET | 0.91 |
| 15 | Spencer Turnbull | DET | R | 3.65 | CHC | 0.767 | MIN | 0.761 |
| 16 | Adam Wainwright | STL | R | 2.00 | KC | 0.701 | CLE | 0.652 |
| 17 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | R | 2.59 | COL | 0.749 | SF | 0.709 |
| 18 | Brad Keller | KC | R | 0.00 | @STL | 0.694 | @CWS | 0.732 |
Love:
- Jose Berrios: Mmmmm look at dem match-ups. Fresh off 6 shutout innings against the Brewers allowing only two baserunners with 9 Ks Berrios gets to face the team with the 26th ranked wOBA vs righties and the 28th team. Oh yea — those same Brewers he bamboozled have a 28.1% K/rate against righties. The Tigers? 29.9%.
Hate:
- Spencer Turnbull: This has more to do with Turnbull (although the Cubs and Indians have been top-12 offenses vs righties.) But our boy Bull after hold his first three opponents to 4 ERs in 18 innings with 18 Ks has fallen apart in his last two starts: 6.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 Ks. Has he been spending too much time with Matthew Boyd?
Code Yellow: Maybe these guys have been underperforming this year — but have one or two cake-walk opponents that I think you could take advantage of. Or someone who is doing well this year — or has done pretty well in the recent past, but is facing a Yankees/Dodgers double dose. Or maybe they just have a case of jaundice and I want to be cheeky.
| Rank | Name | Team | L/R | ERA | OPP1 | OPS vL/vR | OPP2 | OPS vL/vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cristian Javier | HOU | R | 3.55 | LAA | 0.797 | OAK | 0.747 |
| 20 | Sean Manaea | OAK | L | 6.39 | @TEX | 0.654 | @HOU | 0.820 |
| 21 | Spencer Howard | PHI | R | 6.17 | @WAS | 0.699 | ATL | 0.820 |
| 22 | Marco Gonzales | SEA | L | 3.34 | @SD | 0.758 | @LAA | 0.618 |
| 23 | Kyle Gibson | TEX | R | 4.73 | OAK | 0.747 | LAD | 0.828 |
| 24 | Alec Mills | CHC | R | 4.76 | @DET | 0.631 | @CIN | 0.734 |
| 25 | Johnny Cueto | SFG | R | 4.35 | LAD | 0.828 | @ARI | 0.733 |
| 26 | Framber Valdez | HOU | L | 1.72 | LAA | 0.618 | OAK | 0.752 |
| 27 | Casey Mize | DET | R | 6.23 | CHC | 0.767 | MIN | 0.761 |
| 28 | Chase Anderson | TOR | R | 2.79 | @TB | 0.770 | BAL | 0.751 |
| 29 | Tommy Milone | BAL | L | 4.13 | @TB | 0.800 | @TOR | 0.746 |
Love:
- Alec Mills (@DET): Mills has been roughed up his last two starts ( 10 ER, 9.2 IP,) but a start against the Tigers is a good place for him to get back in the win column. As I mentioned in the Jose Berrios blurb, the Tigers have the worst K/rate against righties and have the second-worst walk rate.
- Marco Gonzales (@LAA): Padres are way too hot to face right now, but Gonzalez has a 7-1 record vs. the Angels in his 14 career starts against them. He only has 70 Ks in 82.1 IP, but that’s par for the course for him. But of course, Mike Trout is still hitting .419 against him for his career with 3 HRs. Is there anyone that guy can’t hit?
Hate:
- Kyle Gibson: Soft tossing Kyle Gibson vs. the top-ranked offense against righties? Goodnight Gibson. Against the 6th ranked offense vs. righties (Padres) he was hit for 5 ER in 5 IP — with probably a grand slam in there somewhere.
Code Red: Starting these players will be no Baja Blast! Bad numbers, bad opponents, bad attitudes. I’d rather get shocked with a High Voltage from touching a Live Wire in my Pitch Black basement than put these guys in my lineup.
| Rank | Name | Team | L/R | ERA | OPP1 | OPS vL/vR | OPP2 | OPS vL/vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Tanner Roark | TOR | R | 4.76 | BOS | 0.737 | BAL | 0.751 |
| 31 | Alex Young | ARI | L | 4.50 | COL | 0.805 | SF | 0.821 |
| 32 | Austin Voth | WAS | R | 5.00 | MIA | 0.715 | @BOS | 0.737 |
| 33 | Erick Fedde | WAS | R | 2.55 | PHI | 0.764 | @BOS | 0.737 |
| 34 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | L | 5.40 | @HOU | 0.820 | SEA | 0.542 |
| 35 | Daniel Castano | MIA | L | 4.35 | @WAS | 0.919 | TB | 0.800 |
| 36 | Steven Brault | PIT | L | 3.00 | @CWS | 0.943 | @MIL | 0.805 |
| 37 | Ryan Castellani | COL | R | 3.77 | @ARI | 0.733 | SD | 0.790 |
| 38 | Brett Anderson | MIL | L | 3.71 | CIN | 0.801 | PIT | 0.784 |
| 39 | Trevor Richards | TBR | R | 5.94 | BAL | 0.751 | @MIA | 0.715 |
| 40 | Kyle Hart | BOS | L | 11.12 | @TOR | 0.745 | WAS | 0.919 |
| 41 | Jose Suarez | LAA | L | 33.75 | @HOU | 0.820 | SEA | 0.542 |
Love:
- Patrick Sandoval vs SEA: it almost seems like the Mariners have never seen a left-handed pitcher before. Against lefties they’re dead last in batting average, OPS and second-to last in K/rate. Sandoval faced the Mariners already this year and held them to 1 ER in 4 IP at the end of July. Don’t for a second think about starting him in his first game — but there’s value in that second game.
Hate:
- The rest.
