In an incredible turn of events, I’ve done all the infield 2018 fantasy baseball rankings. Less incredible, you’ve read them. It’s like that time your favorite team won because they played better than that other team but you convinced yourself they won because you cheered loudly. When I win the Fantasy Baseball Blogger of the Millennial in 2099, and my frozen head is accepting the award, I’m going to thank you, the readers, but I’m secretly going to be thanking myself. Without me, none of this would be possible. You’re a close second though! Okay, enough ranking you and me, let’s rank some outfielders! Last year, there was one outfielder I said I didn’t want in the top 20, Carlos Gonzalez. This year, well, let’s save it for the post! All my projections are listed by the players and where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2018 fantasy baseball:
1. Mike Trout – Went over him in the top 10 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
2. Bryce Harper – Went over him in the top 10 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
3. Mookie Betts – Went over him in the top 10 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
4. Giancarlo Stanton – Went over him in the top 10 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
5. Kris Bryant – Went over him in the top 10 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
6. J.D. Martinez – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
7. George Springer – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
8. Cody Bellinger – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
9. Charlie Blackmon – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
10. Aaron Judge – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until here. I call this tier, “Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball (almost).” Every position has a few guys that I almost ranked in the top 20 overall, but the outfielders only have one guy. Don’t get me wrong, I like a ton of outfielders later on, but Judge is the only one of the next 120+ names that I almost ranked in the top 20. From what I see of early ADP, I’m not alone. This is the cut-off for the top outfielders. Aside from Buxton totally breaking out or Marte returning to form, I don’t even see a possible argument for the next ten names being a top 20 overall player. I mean, Sunday Santana just had what is likely a career year and he ranked 43rd for fantasy value on our Player Rater. As for Judge, I’m debating writing a schmohawk post for him. I know, blasphemy. You know what everyone expected from him last year at this time? A 35-homer, .220 season. That sounds ludicrous now, right? Well, it shouldn’t, after he hit 22 homers and .228 in the 2nd half last year. This is you, “Buh-buh-buh-buh-BUH-BUH-BBBBBBBBUUUUUT!!! He was injured, Aaron Judge is the truth.” In the 1st half last year, he had a .426 BABIP. I know, he hits everything hard, but c’mon. He’s not a .400+ BABIP guy. No one is. In the 2nd half, his BABIP dropped to .266 and shizz went pear-shaped. I’m conflicted, because I do like Judge, but I think the dreaded sophomore slump is coming, and I don’t see myself owning Judge. 2018 Projections: 104/40/94/.244/7 in 511 ABs
11. Marcell Ozuna – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Upton. I call this tier, “Happy December 26th Eve.” The tier name is what Jews call Christmas. You still get a day off, and, if you weren’t so neurotic and encompassed with schadenfreude, you’d enjoy that most of the world is having a good time, but it’s still not as great as getting swamped in presents. This tier is fine, it’s a day off, but you’re not celebrating anything after you draft one of these guys, i.e., who was your first outfielder? You have one already, right? You don’t? Well, you should. As for Ozuna, I already went over him when he was traded, here’s what I said, “Marcell Ozuna was traded to the Cards, because the Marlins only had him under control until the end of 2019, and the Marlins are playing for 2022. Then, in 2023, the Marlins will be playing for 2042. Seriously, what the eff are the Marlins doing? I understand trying to get younger, but they’re trading guys who are young. It’s not like they’re moving Martin Prado. Maybe having a guy who discarded women when they reached the age of 22 isn’t the best idea to run a club. Jeter continues to view 27-year-olds as ancient. Hey, Jeter, you’re not unloading Minka Kelly here, you’re unloading Jessica Biel. With the extra Wild Card, I’ll never understand slashing an entire team. Before the selling spree, the Marlins were literally two players away from a Wild Card berth. Now, they’re five years away. Madness, man, madness. Any hoo! Marcell Ozuna averaged 413 feet on his home runs last year, because OZUNA strong. If you overlay his home runs last year with his new park, he keeps his 37 homers and gains an extra one. It’s more or less a push in the Busch. OZUNA love Busch, it is OZUNA favorite type of hedge, much better hedge than poison ivy.” And that’s me quoting me! 2018 Projections: 101/35/106/.278/1 in 607 ABs
12. Starling Marte – After he returned from his suspension, he picked up right where he left off, like he was frozen in time. Maybe he was just holding still like a flat LaCroix, or like an end of a Police Squad episode. Either way, like we’ve seen with Dee Gordon, and a bunch of other players who I’m blanking on, a PEDs suspension doesn’t really stop a player from being essentially the same player on return. Which might have you asking, why do the PEDS at all if they’re the same after returning? Well, I have another question for you, what if they’re still doing PEDs, but they just get smarter about avoiding detection? Like CC would say, things that make you go hmm… 2018 Projections: 88/15/61/.272/32 in 551 ABs
13. Andrew Benintendi – Reminds me a bit of Alex Bregman, and they’re currently going in the same round in drafts, sometimes back-to-back like Jennifer Connelly in Requiem for a Dream. Benintendi stole twenty bags last year, and like Bregman, I could see him stealing anywhere from three bags to 25 bags. Also like Bregman, I could see Benintendi hitting a few more homers this year after he hit twenty. Let’s just call Alex Bregman and Benintendi, Anex Beninman. Can’t find a Beninman! 2018 Projections: 90/22/81/.282/14 in 566 ABs
14. Justin Upton – Steamer projections for Upton are 79/29/87/.247/11 in 538 ABs. Okay, I think that’s conservative, but I tell you those numbers so you get an idea of how uninspiring he could be if things don’t break right. He was productive for five of six months last year, and the 2nd half the year before, so he’s had a solid eight of his last nine months. With this ranking, I’m expecting four of this year’s six months to be solid, then eight months turns to twelve, it’s quarter past three and we drive at ten and two. So Upton’s gotta be good, right? 2018 Projections: 93/31/108/.252/10 in 561 ABs
15. Rhys Hoskins – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 40 outfielders for 2018 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Hopsin.” By the tier name I mean, I started listening to Hopsin’s latest album. At first, I was like, “Cool, you beat your girlfriend and abandoned your kid in Australia.” Then after a 2nd listen I was like, “Okay, I get it, your “ho” was looking for dollars. But, c’mon, man, that’s not very woke.” By my fifth listen, I was like, “Yo, let this guy see his kid! Ugh, I’m so tired of all the problems you’ve been causin’ me (ha—ha—ha)…We are not cool no mo’ as far as I can see… I’ve fallen! I’m crawlin’!” So, each one of these guys grew on me the further I dug into them. As for Hoskins, went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball.
16. Byron Buxton – He had a 16/29/.253 season last year. If he hit leadoff, and accumulated 100 runs, or hit third and racked up 100 RBIs, we’d prolly not even be able to draft him this late. Then again, he was unusable for an entire half for the 2nd year in a row. Then again again, he still had a great season! I think it might be a bit bizzonkers that I have Buxton ranked this high, but the more I looked at him and what he could do, I was all-in like Stu Ungar at the final table in the World Series of Poker in heaven. He’s about a 14% HR/FB with a 40% FB rate, not many oppo dong-balls but still good for around 19.9 HRs. What’s that, 19 homers and a 576 foot out made by Aaron Judge diving into the stands, running 25 feet and reaching up his 18 foot arm? Meh, let’s give him 20 homers. Next, his steals. Have you seen homeboy run? Doode’s fast like a jaguar spotting a provocatively dressed sheep. Next, his average. Usually, average doesn’t mean squat, but here is my big concern for Buxton. Luckily, there’s some optimism. He hit .300 in the 2nd half last year with a 27.6% strikeout rate. That cut his Ks by three percentage points from the 1st half. He was luckier than a leprechaun who’s sprouting four-leaf clovers out of his ears with a .378 BABIP. Gonna sound hemmy-and-hawy but if Buxton can start hot, have confidence early, he could hit .275 on the year. More than likely, he’s gonna hit some droughts that would make Hollis Mulwray blush, and hit around .245. With the power and speed though? I’m in. 2018 Projections: 76/20/84/.242/33 in 502 ABs
17. Chris Taylor – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball.
18. Yasiel Puig – I fell in love with Pweeg this past postseason. By the way, I got comments that I’m a Dodgers’ homer when I published my Shohei Ohtani fantasy. Okay, but I don’t like Justin Gingerlake, Kershaw, and I hate Seager, so wrong. I’m not a Dodgers homer. I’m a straight-up fantasy baseball head. I don’t have a favorite team. I just think it’s super stupid — supid? — that the Orange County Angels call themselves Los Angeles. I’m an LA snob, not a Dodgers one. Any hoo! I fell in love with Pweeg, because of how much old, stodgy white guys hated him for licking his bat and just acting a fool. We need more players acting a fool in baseball. What gets shared during football season? End zone dances. What is a prevailing baseball attitude with home runs? Place your bat down and respectfully round the bases. Eff that. Show personality! Throw your bat in the air and do the Cha Cha Slide like Joey Fatone on Dancing With The Stars! Baseball is okay with 156 MPH foul balls killing fans, but not okay with home run celebrations? Oh. *drives cross country* Kay. That’s why I like Pweeg. Any hoo, Part II: Welcome to Anyhoo-ville, Puig went 28/15/.263 last year, and moved his walk rate and K-rate the right way. I think we’re about to get that full-on breakout; now let’s see some Pweeg’s fly. 2018 Projections: 80/31/94/.284/13 in 519 ABs
19. Khris Davis – Am I scared the bottom is gonna drop out at any moment for him? Like I’m in an elevator with a frayed cable? By the way, what do you call a scared wire? A frayed cable. Take it, Highlights! It’s yours! My hope, right before world peace on my list of hopes, is we get one more 40+ HR, .250 season from Davis. If he does that, what’s the difference between him and Aaron Judge? Four rounds and a striking similarity to Giancarlo. 2018 Projections: 86/41/106/.245/3 in 551 ABs
20. Christian Yelich – Remember that episode of the Twilight Zone with Burgess Meredith when he finally gets peace and quiet to read, because he’s the only person left in the world, but then in a horrible twist, Burgess Meredith breaks his glasses? Well, if Yelich breaks his glasses, he’s screwed because the whole team left him. For a slightly less dated reference, but still dated, Yelich has one friend left, a volleyball named Wilson. UPDATE: Yelich was traded to the Brewers and now Starlin Castro is Burgess Meredith in the above example. Jeter is still Wilson. Yelich goes to a much better park, lineup, city as long as he doesn’t hang out with Steven Avery’s family, and a sausage racers’ mecca. Only drawback is he can no longer dry hump his luggage tag and say, “Oh, Mia, you like that.” That was kinda weird anyway. I’ve upped his projections and ranking with this trade. 2018 Projections: 105/19/67/.291/17 in 581 ABs
Hey Grey – pleased to see you still bullish on Cruz. I’ve had a reasonable amount of success zagging against the ageist crowd these past few years and enjoying his power, and I’m hoping he’ll continue for at least one more year.
Been enjoying the ranks so far, and am in the middle of an early slow-draft (NFBC-style 50 round draft and hold roto league – CI/MI and 5 OF + UT) so would be interested to see a) how you think my roster is shaking out, and b) where I should be targeting my reserve picks – am I low on some stats in particular, or should I just add SP depth for streaming/target some stalking horses for closer opportunities/aim for some high upside guys still in the minors, etc
C – d’Arnaud, Wieters
CI – Rizzo, Rendon, Mancini
MI – DeJong, Villar, Owings
OF – Betts, Cruz, Inciarte, Gardner, Bradley Jr, Parra, Almora Jr
SP – Keuchel, Cole, Price, Snell, Wacha, Rodon, Nelson
RP – Giles, Herrera, Brach, Ziegler
@Desmond:Go heavy on SP and find as many as you can who have starting gigs next couple rounds.
Then Depth everywhere with guys who might get 400ABs, multi-positional eligibility where you can.
@Desmond: Thanks! Looks solid so far on hitting, your pitching looks like a mess. You better get some decent SPs now…
@Grey: Thanks fellas. Yeah, picking towards an end of a round meant I kept missing out on earlier SP targets, which meant I didn’t like the options, so went for hitters, which meant I then got further behind…
Yeah, I hear ya
Thanks Grey –
How long should I sign Benintendi for? 3 years for $16 annually or 4 years for $22? I have plenty of cap space and Mike Trout for the next 3 years at $52 for relative value. I was thinking only 3 years but after seeing him ranked in the top 20 am debating the extra year.
WT
@Wild Thing: 3 years is plenty, don’t wanna grow bored of him
@Grey: thanks!
No problem
I’m big on Mazara this year. Think he has a chance at finishing in the top 20 OF?
@El Marco: Think he’d need regression / flops from several guys on this list.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?:
Yeah, I’m not really sold on Buxton thru Puig. Thinking a couple of them bust
@El Marco: Whoa, bite your tongue on Puig!
@Grey:
I’m in a H2H points league so Puig will probably finish around 20 but worried about his consistency
Gotcha, yeah, H2H could change things on streaky guys…
Grey,
Please choose one to draft this season. Ozuna or Benintendi? Thanks.
@Kas: haha he ranked numerically based on preference and discussed both players like 5 inches above this… well you could be projecting this on a very large screen…. just scoll up!
@Willy Mo: To be fair, he will tank Scherzer as his number one SP, but he will tell us that he would not draft Scherzer and that he would wait and take like the 10th best SP.
Just because a guy is ranked in a certain spot doesn’t mean you’d necessarily prefer to take him where he is being drafted.
Hey Grey,
Would you make this trade? I trade minor leaguers Luis Urias, 2B SD, and Ryan McMahon 1B,3B, COL and I get Miguel Andujar 3B, NYY and Vlad Jr.
@Scott Kimmel: I’d take Vlad
do you think I should try and rework the deal? I hate giving up Urias
Sure, try it
I was thinking McMahon and either Rooker or Jeren Kendall
Try Rooker
grey he asked for Yankee prospect Raimfer Salinas.
And what you say?
I said no. He just accepted Rooker and McMahon for Andujar and Vlad Jr.
Hey, Scott take questions to my newest post
Hey, there’s only 20 people on this list! What’s the big idea, guy?
Nyucknyucknyuck.
@Greydalf the WHIPzard: Haha
There goes Grey Albright, the best fantasy baseballer (his Mom’s term) there ever was.
Great write up.
Also, I watched all the Mr Robot episodes—pretty good on the whole.
@P: I liked Mr. Robot a lot in the 1st season, 2nd season was a bit of a mess, 3rd season was decent…
@Grey:
I agree with this analysis of Mr. Robot too!
Trying to figure out my last keeper slot (H2H Categories, 6×6). First three keepers are Bryant, JD Martinez and Severino. Last one is between Devers and Buxton. I’d been planning to keep Devers (seems like he has more longterm value) but Buxton is cheaper, I already have a 3B, and rankings like this make me nervous. Thoughts?
@ned: I’d go Bux
Finally agree on someone we will not own. Aaron Judge. Second half pitcher adjustments showed where he likely will be. Only caveat is with Giancarlo in lineup, they may not be able to make him swing at as many bad pitches depending on how lineup shakes out.
Machado, Bellinger, Judge. Until they show ability to re-adjust approach to the adjustments that have been made against them (which wont be by March 24th) I wont be owning them where they are getting drafted.
@The Great Knoche:
Bellinger wasn’t as awe-inspiring the second half of the season but he certainly held his own. .538 slugging for 2nd half is certainly pretty good. It’s not like he fell off the table.
And Judge crushed it in Sept/Oct, so you could say Judge adjusted to the adjustment.
Machado is overhyped, no argument there.
@Justin: Bellinger K/BB% shows me he hasn’t. Not saying I wouldnt take him around pick 40, but I’m not owning him in the top 20.
Judge did have late season surge, but I just can’t see myself owning a guy with a 30% K rate in the first two rounds.
@The Great Knoche: Disagree about Machado. He’s had 5 full seasons. Any adjustments and re-adjustments have been made by now. He’s a beast and still only 25 years old. I’d have no problem taking him back of the first round.
@Cram It: Sorry you’re right, Machado is who he is, but here’s Me, Quoting Me from Top 10 post last week.
Machado…Meh.
Even during 2nd half his pulled ground ball rate was not good which is what was driving down his BABIP. Unless he stops rolling over he is going to still struggle with BA. He had one month, July with a high LD%, and in August he hit 12 of his HRs. Otherwise his 2nd half was very similar to his 1st.
Not taking him in first round personally.
March/Apr .224
May .191
June .242
Jul .327
Aug .341 (.292 BABIP)
Sep .230
I’ll take , Bryant, Giancarlo, Votto, Freeman, Blackmon, and Rizzo, before Manny.
@The Great Knoche: Ok, those stats are from last year. He had an off year in the BA dept for sure. Following the O’s all year, his struggles were certainly a talking point locally, he was pressing, and still 33/95. I don’t think in his 6th year, pitchers have figured him out or he’s lost his way. He’s a .280 hitter to me.
@Cram It: not saying he’s horrible, but he has struggled last 2 years for extended periods. taking him Mid 2nd not late 1st
@The Great Knoche: mid 2nd but not late first? that’s really not much of a difference
@batflix: Big difference indeed – Agree with Knoche the year he got 20 sbs propelled him into the 1st rd….. 2 years later hes there on name value alone-
Not even close to a 1st rder imo
@The Great Knoche: Agreed on Judge
@Grey: I get that it is your list and all, but it seems hard to agree on Judge but not on Bellinger
What do you mean?
Been reading your site all Winter, thanks for keeping the stove hot! Please rank Schebler, Renfroe, Phillips, Peralta, Bader & Parra. 10 Team NL only.
@NoOneIsHome: Thanks! I’ll rank all of them in the next few days
Does changing my username with this email address avoid having to have every comment moderated?
@Fungazi 2.0: Maybe but you’re gonna have to try again, bc I have to moderate the very 1st time you comment… My guess is the problem is your email, not username… You can make up a fake email if you want
@Grey: Been using this email for 5 yrs on this site, since you were a young man
Hey! I’m still young! (Relatively)
@Grey: Aren’t we all? Ok I’ll use the fake address, maybe that’ll work.
Try [email protected]
@Grey: Ugh, now everyone knows my fake address Grey
Sorry, disregard that email you didn’t get from me… Okay, now try again
@Grey: In the videos, I can tell it’s not really Grey because the voice doesn’t match the dummy’s mouth movements
Wait, which one is the dummy?
@Grey: Yes! Thanks man.
Nice!
mccutchen put up 94/28/88/.279/11 last year i feel like him and santana are almost the same player.
Where u seeing mccutchen vs santana consensus adp right now?
@Willy Mo: McCutchen is also old, and just got traded to a bad team with a not so great lineup, and a giant abyss of a stadium.
Santana is young, plays in a Miller Park with a good lineup.
That being said Cutch has been going well before Santana in early drafts. Mostly, because majority of fantasy baseball writers are sheep.
@The Great Knoche: Cutch is what, 30? Hes not thaaaat old. Hes also played every game or just about 3 years in a row. Not hating on the santana rank at all, i think i prefer santana, i was just curious from a adp and value standpoint as i do think they will have simmilar value. But yeah if they go around the same or if Cutch is going before him, I go Santana
@Willy Mo: I’ll rank McCutchen in next tier
Judge in Sept&Oct. .311/.463/.889
Killed it towards the end of the season and postseason.
Seems like you are giving more weight to a bad August than the majority of the season. And yes I have a man-crush on Judge so be tender…
@Justin: i think the ranking is fair if you ignore judges raw power plus park effect which Grey is doing. In the video and write up he comments about acknowledging judges hard contact but i dont think theres enough being weighted towards all his attributes. Combine his size, strength, avg exit velo (95mph vs Bellinger 91mph) superior launch angle for homers, avg hr distance, ect… Steamer only has Judge for 37 homers, clearly expecting a regression to the “average” for homers per fly ball and number of fly balls hit, ect. But judges swing and strength are anything but average.
We have also seen Judge look really bad (september call up 2016), then adjust and crush it (first half of 2017), fall into a slump after pitchers adjust (half of july thru august), then bounce back to be player of the month in September 2017 and nearly win the league MVP while keeping the yankees in the division race with boston until the final week. All in his rookie season.
The guy by all accounts is mature beyond his years and a tireless worker at his craft and in excellent physical shape and health. His plate discipline was uncanny for a rookie or for a veteran for that matter. I dont see how calling for 20% regression makes sense for this guy. Hes not your ordinary player.
And lets not forget the ballpark. Judge goes oppo for 320 feet on a pop up. Yankee stadium is really a joke.
Grey does give Judge 40 homers but its irrelevant. Raking him as the 10th best outfielder gives you no hope at drafring him in redraft leagues. Some folks are more than ok with that. I think hes worth reaching for, clearly. 121/54/128/.276/8
#Juther ….judge truther?
@Justin: He wasn’t that good in October if you’re counting postseason
@Grey:
707 slugging in Sept/Oct if you count postseason
Didn’t he hit .188 in the postseason?
@Grey: Tell you one thing he def was a lot better in the playoffs than Bellinger. But in regards to Wily Mo, park factors mean nothing for Judge. He literally hit 0 home runs last year due to park according to analysis
I don’t doubt Judge can hit the ball out of any park, he’s like Giancarlo… They average home runs out of every park, even Yellowstone…
Kind of off topic here but would you deal the #1 pick in prospect draft (Otani) for Walker Buehler and Fernando Tatis Jr? Dynasty year 5 (payout) looking to start my move to the top from last place. My hitting roster is stacked and my pitching is dismal. Consider my best pitcher currently is Carlos Rodon.
@BuckNastySauce: I think that’s a decent trade
“and they’re currently going in the same round in drafts, sometimes back-to-back like Jennifer Connelly in Requiem for a Dream”
I come for the analysis but i stay for the anal ass is? what?
@t-bone: Haha
Listen here Fam, what’s the deal with Pham?
@Michael Utzig: I’ll rank him shortly
@Grey: Grey gotta be the low man on Pham
Sorry, at
@Grey: are you going to wear an Altuve mask while you rank him?
Yeah, cause I like to border on offensive and silly!
Only top 20? What a rip off…
JK Good stuff.
@Mind=Blown: Thanks!
Grey-
We are only 4 posts away from pitcher rankings. That is where you morph from a Leaping Lanny to a Genius. Can’t wait.
Excuse me while I write a poem…
I’m confused – where is Ronnie Acuna?
He’ll be along
Exactly! Throw him in with Buxton and Marte! Top 20 overall upside!
Easy
I think this makes sence. 8 team league. Finally shipped out Mr Trout at $66 salary for Machado at $23. I thinks I wound up on the better end of this. Gives me extra $43 at auction. Hate to let #1 go but works out better.
Yeah, sounds okay if you needs that $43
Thanks Grey! Have to keep 16 in basic 12 team keeper forever ….trying to build a competitive team for future.
So far thinking of keeping
Acuna Bregman Moncada Happ Buxton Devers Upton Lindor Correa Hosmer Jimenez Margot.
Kenley Kluber Paxton Thor
Dropping Baez Pederson Sano Brinson Vizcano Salazar Taillon
Am I going too heavy on bats. What’s your general view on who I’ve dropped?
Thanks
Baez and Sano are above some of the guys you’re keeping in my rankings
@Grey: Good point! Yeah..some of these prospects are unproven compared to someone like Baez (who in the right scenario ) would blossom for sure.
Yeah, should play for this year, every year ideally
14 tm dynasty – obp and total bases instead of Avg/HRs.
Being offered
Schoop
Orlando Arcia
G.Bird
J.Flaherty
L.Tavares
for my
C.Seager
C.Archer
Archer is pretty expensive and maybe has 1 or 2 more years of being kept…
thoughts?
Sounds fair
Really enjoyed the write-up!
Love the claymation? Grey! Well done!
cheers,
MP
Thanks!
Acuna .269 (~nice~), 21 HR 33 SB ZIPs projection . . . oh, sorry, I suddenly need to excuse myself and go to the bathroom for a moment brb.
Pretty sure I will pay any price in my keeper leagues to draft him at this point.
Damn, that’s downright Buxtony
@Grey: With less swing and miss!
In standard leagues, I sort of love the idea of going for the power/solid average bats that seem plentiful across the infield positions, then in 5 OF leagues filling my last 3 OF spots with the likes of Buxton, Acuna, and Deshizz to cover me on the SB side.
Yeah, I might need to bump Acuna up to like top 10 overall… I love him!
@Grey: Same here! Foaming at the mouth in keeper leagues – if he does anything close to ZIPs, he should easily outperform even the most aggressive auction bids for him this year.
Guru Grey,
This is more of a real baseball question than fantasy. Isn’t the new “outside the box” thinking of using advanced metrics to use closers in high leverage situations really just reworked closer by cmmittee approach?
Secondly but related, isn’t all this relief work a major contributing factor to the length of games which is leading to pace of gae discussions?
Thirdly, why isn’t everybody up in arms about NFL pace of game when there is a maximum 60 minutes of clock time play yet games last for well over3 hours?
Sorry for the rant. I watch way too much MLB network.
Thanks for the great work on OF’s.
Thanks! You sound like Brian Kenny with the bullpen question, he keeps saying (to anyone who asks) why don’t starters go 3 IP and everyone gets an inning or two… As for length of games, will anyone really complain about a game being too long at 3 hours and 15 minutes but being excited for a game that is three hours and nine minutes?
@Grey: I couldn’t agree more. Games right now on average are 3:05. They have steadily increased over the last few years but’s not like they were 2 1/2 hours like when I was young and they just jumped. They’ve been anywhere frro m 2:50- 3:05 the last few years. If managers and front offices weren’t so obsessed with these new metrics and threfore obsessed with getting the exact match up and even the exact pitch there wouldn’t be as big a problem.
I think the NFL gets away with it because with all the time between snaps they can show 3 different views of the previous incomplete pass.
Pitch count knocked a full 84 seconds off of games…Amazing! I don’t watch NFL, but I’d guess half the extra time is guys on the ground with CTE
@Grey: Haha. Yeah, I don’t watch much either. Just playoffs. So many commercials!
Yeah, exactly
Hey was doing a simulated mock in fantasy pros and travis shaw name keep popping up on recommended draft pick. Its round 6.
I went to check to get your thoughts on him caus i didnt remeber his ranking and write up. This year you rank him 29th for first basemenand 28th for 3rd basemen. Last year he finished the season 8th best for 1st basemen and 4th best 3rd basemen in fantasy 2017. This is what you said in the end of uear write up…
“As for Shaw, he surprised me so much I legitimately liked Tyler Thornburg better than him last year at this time. Preseason Rank #29, 2017 Projections: 51/18/64/.247/3, Final Numbers: 84/31/101/.273/10”
It seemed like you regretted ranking him 29th last preaseason but then still ranked him 29th this preseason?
Your project 18hrs 64rbi .247 avg in only 435 ABs in 2018 after last years 31hr 101 rbi .273 avg 538 AB season last year.
I read that his launch angle was way different last year resulting in more homers. I dont love the guy but he seems like an enticing 3rd base option for this year but you have him sooo low that im trying to figure out whats up. Is he slated to lose playing time or is he injured or was he just insanely lucky last year?
@Willy Mo: lol u have him ranked 11. Somehow google pulled 2017 ranks.
I think I just ranked Shaw around 60 overall in my top 100, so I don’t know where this is coming from… He’s not eligible at 1st base, and I didn’t rank him there…
@Grey: If you go to menu and follow drop down for rankngs, the 2017 ones are still there. Maybe that’s what Willy Mo did. (I did the same thing a few days ago butbrealized when the rankings looked funky)
Gotcha
@Grey: just to be sure, your top 100 hasn’t drizz-opped yet, right?
It hizz not
Where is Max Kepler?? Lol
When you cut me, do I not bleed?
Based on your remark that you don’t normally like to leave the 1st/2nd round without a 1B, and you want to have one of the top 10ish OF – does that mean your general strategy would be 1B/OF (or OF/1B) in rounds 1 and 2? Obviously that could depend on if a value falls or something, but it sounds like you want to be strong in those two areas. AMIWRONG
You’re not WRONG, it would be nice in an ideal world… but then you get Trea Turner and shizz goes sideways with that plan
Quickie for you: Domingo Santana at $2 or Carlos Martinez at $12 ?
Your reply is afternoon delight for me :-p
Domingo, though depth of league could change that… Your question is a Sunny Delight for me….
Grey!
Good stuff as always, though not nearly enough Reggie Roby.
We keep six in a 12-team points league that penalizes strikeouts for hitters. Who don’t I keep? And is it an easy choice?
Kershaw, Darvish
Arenado, Corey Seager
Harper, JD Martinez, Judge
Thank you, sir!
Todd
So, drop one? I’d lose Seager, though when you say penalize for hitters, what did Judge score last year vs. Seager?
@Grey: Last year’s numbers:
Judge 509 pts 3.3 ppg
Seager 344 pts 2.4 ppg
JD 400 pts 3.4 ppg
Harper 402 3.6 ppg
Kershaw 487 18.0 ppg
Darvish 426 13.7 ppg
Gotta keep Judge then
@Grey: Right on. And you like Darvish better than Seager?
Is there something about Seager you don’t love?
Thanks again.
Seager or Darvish is close, I’d lean Seager
Dang it… just put in a lot of notes and then accidentally closed the browser. DOH!
Rhys Hoskins – why everyone loves him:
Here’s the highlights –
-47 HRs between AAA and MLB last year.
-Over the last 2 years (1276 ABs) he’s walked at a 14% rate against a less than 20% K rate.
-Historical batting average looks like a .280 guy more than the .260 guy he was last year.
-Luck was involved last year to his detriment. 46% hard hit and 41% med hit… 25% line drive. This is a guy that should be around .280+ since his high fly ball numbers come with obvious power for them to carry the yard.
-Your lover, Stanton, hit 41% hard 40% medium over his career in comparison.
We’re talking about a guy whos profile and development supports his numbers and actually shows legit upside.
Based on that… putting him in a tier with Buxton, Domingo, and others is a travesty!
Haha, you’re picking nits, I love Hoskins
@Grey: that’s some nitty picky nutties
That sounds tasty!
@Grey: like something the neighbors bring over in their homemade baked good holiday platter.
When good intentions go wrong…
@Grey: like my neighbor who brought me these bars that would have been good except for the coconut. Now I really love coconut but not mixed with all this other crap. My moms oatmeal coconut cookies are the bomb digity. …btw
I have some trust issues with sunday santana
Me too, but great park, good enough lineup, and his perfs don’t jump out as he’s going to fail
@Grey: From memory because I already addressed him to one of those worthless crabs. On the negative side: He had a high number of just enough dongs and his average HR distance wasn’t anything to get excited about, his HR/FB is bonkers high, his contact% is kinda poo poo, and his swst% is way too high for my liking to sustain level success long term. On the flip side he’s a really good line drive approach hitter so with the right tweek he can make that leap and just watching him makes me like him. He also spreads the ball to all fields well which is a pluis. I’m not liking him as much when comparing his numbers to league averages for 2017. I should do a custom search to see who else fits in his mold for context. He’s a ceiling risk player that you want to own but I would make sure to draft my #3 OF inot too many rounds later. But thats me and how I construct my rosters
Good stuff! Yeah, I guess he’s not without flaws, but I love his age, direction his career seems to be going, LD approach (like you said), park (like I said) and feels like a cusp of 35/12/.275 which I love…
@Grey: or he’s 25/10/.255 and he hits 10 of the 25 in one month and you want to jump off a bridge the other 5 months. My advice to anyone who has read my drivel would be to not get cocky and wait 10 rounds to draft your next outfielder unless he’s your 4th because your league mates are dumb. Or your 3rd in a 3 outfielder league which is like playing basketball on a 7 foot rim. And also dumb. Or in H2H because that’s for football and also dumb…January Full of Hate
January! Yeah, maybe on 10 HRs in one month, but maybe he hits 5 HRs a month, and you still ask about dropping him because you want someone who hit 2 HRs the day before and you just gotta rosterbate!
@Grey: those are the nails on the chalkboard comments. It’s like you only have so many teets to go around. Make big boy decisions commenters
Grey:
You missed on Pham–top 20 easy with a full season of ABs.
Guess we’ll see
@D. Geisleman: Just another in a long line of Cardinals that come out of nowhere around age 30 and then are completely average when they play a full season.
What’s up guys – I know it’s still early but keeper question – can only pick 5 it’s h2h, keep forever (whoever you keep you forfeit your pick for the round you drafted them in last season) strict roster limits 2 of each offensive position and 6 sp 3 rp. As of now I’m leaning towards bellinger (25th round), acuna (25th round), Hoskins (25th round), moncada (25th round) and Jose Ramirez (5th round). Agree with these 5 or would you prefer – lindor (1st round), rizzo (2nd round), carrasco (6th round), Robbie ray (15th round) or sano (25th round) over any of he above ones? Just as a reference, last season the 1st round consisted of players like Justin Turner, Miguel Cabrera, cespedes, Dozier, Cano, etc so using a 1st round keeper on someone like lindor still seems kind of worth it but it’s hard to give up the value of all those 25th rounders since there would still be a chance of me drafting lindor or rizzo in the earlier rounds…thanks guys loving all these posts and the work you guys put in – totally disagree with some of the clowns on here who want to bash you guys this is the best fantasy site I’ve ever come across! And off topic totally agree with “Dark” what an awesome show!
Those 5 makes sense
If Knebel played OF, where would he rank? in a vacuum (Hoover)
He’s not very good with the bat, so dead last
@Grey: these are worse than kimmel ever was. now up to at least 2.
Keep Aaron Nola or Jake Lamb? 12 teamer
Nola
Hey Grey,
Would you trade Hoskins for Devers and Castillo?
Debating between this trade and moving Myers for Chris Taylor/Osuna/Diaz
thanks boss
Prefer Taylor one
I know we haven’t gotten to SP yet, but mind to clue me in on who you prefer between Ray, deGrom, and Paxton?
Ray
Grey,
10 team, 10 keepers
I need to move Conforto for a player who will play the full year as my window to compete is now.
What’s fair keeper value for a guy like Conforto? Bregman feels a little too much and Lamb seems like not quite enough? Think I’m in the right neighborhood with those guys?
Thanks
Domingo?
Is offering Dee Gordon and Travis Shaw too much (or not enough) for Jose Ramirez?
Maybe a bit
Thoughts on Yelich/K.Davis. Surprised that you have Buxton/Domingo/Taylor/Puig ahead of them.
Yelich in ANY other park can be a top 10 o.f. and Davis’ floor looks like 40.
Thanks
@True and Correct: Sorry for the duplication.
I’ll go over them in the next post
@True and Correct: domingo isn’t ahead of k.davis. davis is 20th above, domingo is going to be in the next OF post.
Thoughts on K.Davis/Yelich. Surprised neither in top 20 o.f.
Thanks
I’ll go over them in the next post
Why pay for Rizzo rant-
Doesnt Ozunas line look exactly the same as Rizzos? Since I think we are in agreement that with the depth in the inf these days positional scarcity doesnt matter anymore why pay the toll?
Ozuna will be 10-15$ cheaper!!!! Easy early nom this year to clear bucks with Rizzo, especially in Yahoo with the 2b tag
Ozuna $15 cheaper? That feels aggressive… Maybe $10, though that feels high…. Figure $35 vs. $30
@Grey: Ozuna will be around 25 and with the 2b elig these yahoos will pay near 40$
Hey Grey, What about AJ Pollock? I know you haven’t really ever liked him, but I guarantee 280 20 HRs 30 SBs in a potent Arizona lineup as long as he stays healthy
There’s more OFs coming tomorrow
You have certainly piqued my interest with this aggressive Puig rating. If he lives up to that projection he would be a tremendous value pick based on where other sites are rating him. Only other option I feel has a chance to drastically out perform his ADP is Buxton if he puts it all together for at least 3/4 of the season. Top 20 OF doesn’t look to be the area to bargain hunt, just pay the piper in the first 5 rounds and go discount stud-hunting elsewhere.
@Rum Ham: Note to self: check on availability of discountstuds.com in case I ever want to start my own fantasy site
Can also try cheapsexymen.com
@Grey: Looking for beefcakes to spend the summer with. I repeat, *nothing sexual*
Enjoying your hot bat, and wondering if you’d like to hang out with me all summer… Platonically!
True, Rum Ham, but Buxton and Puig on your team can be sweet money
If you needed a pitcher in a dynasty league, would you move Acuna for Servino? Am I crazy to even consider moving Acuna?
Hold
Hey Grey, entering auction league for 1st time, any tips? Picking a handful of players from each position to like and go from there?
@Gotime: Not an auction expert by any stretch, I definitely botched my first couple then developed some strategies and had much improved results over time. Here’s what I got:
1) prep work – I like to make position rankings without prices. Then look up various sites auction values (the more the merrier) to get a sense of what each guys perceived value. Then add prices by each name with a combination of “expert” opinion and my own. Decide on a max # for each.
2) highlight the outliers – guys you rank high who are cheaper on avg than those ranked around them, and more importantly guys you think are overrated who are expensive.
3) drain the competition’s $$$ – Early on when it is your turn to nominate throw out expensive players who don’t interest you. People tend to bid more aggressively at the top. If you were going strictly by Grey’s rankings some examples from the list above would be Blackmon or Judge whom someone in your league will likely value much higher.
4) be patient (but not TOO patient) – this is the hardest and probably just takes learning by failure. I’ve noticed routinely that a lot of crazy values can be found at the end of every auction, $15-20+ players going for pennies once most of the league is out of money. But you also don’t want to be the sucker with too much money left near the end and no studs to spend on. Easier said than done.
My two cents. Good luck friend, and have fun!
Hey, take questions to my newest post, thanks!
Long Time listener, First time Caller. Thanks for having me, really happy to be here….I just made this trade in my full dynasty league. Zero fee to keep players, No time limit, 10 minor league spots.
Sano, Knebel, Javy Baez
For
Yelich, D Swanson, and Gerrit Cole
(trade was made 3 weeks before Cole was traded to astros)
Which Group of players do you prefer?
Hey, Fred take questions to my newest post
Sorry to ask this again: You create tiers in your position rankings but when you begin a new position, you state you already went over the profile in Top 10 and Top 20 overall players and assigned them into tiers but THOSE tiers are for the overall rankings not the individual positions. How do I translate those Overall tiers into position tiers? For example, if I took the tiers in the overall and transferred them to the OF 1-20, then I would have Trout (Tier 1), Harper, Betts, Stanton (Tier 2), Bryant (Tier 3), JD, Springer, and Bellinger (Tier 4), Blackmon (Tier 5) Judge (Tier 6)…Would this be the way the OFielders would be tiered?
Hey, take questions to my newest post, thanks!
10 team 5×5 roto 4-keeper league. Standard $260 auction. I have very inexpensive keeepers – Bellinger, Lamb, Devers and Hand that cost me $18 so I have $260-18 or $242 to spend. We have a 190 GS limit. Roster – 13 offensive spots, 9 pitching spots and 4 bench spots.
In this format, with $242 to spend and 3 starters already filled, how much would you spend on pitching? $100? $80????