Hey, guys and five girls, we’re (I’re) back! Today’s 2018 fantasy baseball rankings tackle your favorite (I’m guessing!), the top 40 outfielders for 2018 fantasy baseball. Last year, Stephen Hawking was hitting his keyboard robotically telling us, “It’s a black hole for outfielders, we need to spontaneously combust some new ones.” Then, between outfielder rants, Stephen would jot down a letter to Eddie Redmayne about a sequel to The Theory of Everything. Well, no sequel on the horizon, but don’t underestimate Hawking’s ability to spontaneously combust some new outfielders, because this position is deep AF. As always, my projections are noted for each player and where I see tiers starting and stopping. Also, all of Rudy’s hitter projections are under that easy-to-click link. Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2018 fantasy baseball:
21. Lorenzo Cain – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2018 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Mancini. I called this tier, “Hopsin.” As for Cain, yo, screw these 15/20 guys, yo. Cain, Polanco, Yelich and Pham can all eat a D. I hate a guy who is touching his ceiling with 15/20. Know what happens when they hit their floor? They put up a 12/16 season and your fantasy team is hurting for everything. Cain is going to be 32 years old, and I’m not relying on him to come anywhere close to 25+ steals. Sorry, I can’t endorse Cain…Sugar! between the white lines. UPDATE: On January 25th, a pimple-faced teenager went to check on Mr. Scott Boras because his newspapers were piling up outside of his house. Diiiiing. Diiiiiing. No answer. He then leaned over to the window to peer in to see Scott Boras trapped underneath a stack of hundred dollar bills. Thus, the Winter Meetings started this year on January 25th. Lorenzo Cain going to the Brewers is another boost in value for an outfielder. (Sorry, Domingo Santana.) The tweet below is in honor of Montgomery Brewers. 2018 Projections: 91/18/79/.292/18 in 535 ABs
Apparently, the Brewers’ great aunt died and left them a fortune with one stipulation: you must buy outfielders.
— Razzball (@Razzball) January 26, 2018
22. Nelson Cruz – A few years ago I stopped trying to guess when Cruz was going to stop hitting boku homers. Now, I’m guessing weights and ages at a local carnival! “You look like you’re 45 and 167 pounds, or 37 and pregnant.” That’s me right before being punched. Cruz just hit 39-plus homers for the 4th straight season. Yes, he’s old, but maybe he found the Fountain of Youth. Or Fountain of Yute, if Joe Pesci is reading. UPDATE: Diagnosed with a strained quad. Or as Mariners fans are now exclaiming, “Whoa Nelly!” If you already drafted Nelson Cruz on your fantasy team, then, for $35, you can get the rapper Nelly to put a Band-Aid on your fantasy team. I’ve docked Cruz two weeks of regular season at-bats, but obviously there’s cause of concern now. 2018 Projections: 82/33/98/.282/1 in 509 ABs
23. Billy Hamilton – The tier got its name because players grew on me the further I dug into them. Okay, that’s not telling the whole story with Hamilton. I didn’t just dig into him, I dug into baseball, in general. I’m pulling back curtains! *rips back curtain* Oh, crap! I’m sorry, I just grabbed the first curtain I saw and didn’t realize I was in a Lane Bryant. In the last three years, Hamilton’s steals: 57, 58, 59. Can you fill in the next number in that string? Yeah, me too. “Is that your string theory?” Okay, Stephen Hawking let me do the talking now. Steals are garbage everywhere, and you know Hamilton. He’s not throwing away his shot! He’s not throwing away his shot! He’s young, scrappy and hungry! Okay, maybe not hungry, but speedy, fo’ sho. 2018 Projections: 92/6/40/.252/60 in 559 ABs
24. A.J. Pollock – Chase Field is implementing the humidor (last I heard) to start this year, so it will be interesting to see how much a difference it makes. My guess is offense will stay where it is in Arizona, but baseballs will smell like an old man’s poker game. *smelling humidor* “Is it me or does it smell like Arnold Schwarzenegger just had sex?” Any hoo! I don’t think a humidor will affect Pollock terribly, I think his gams being 30 years old will do that. If he played 155 games last year, he still would’ve had a 20/30/.270 season, so let’s hope he has one more in him. 2018 Projections: 92/18/78/.277/23 in 561 ABs
25. Ronald Acuna – Already gave you my Ronald Acuna fantasy. It had six grammatical mistakes. Also, I go over Acuna in the video. 2018 Projections: 74/17/77/.304/21 in 514 ABs
26. Whit Merrifield – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball.
27. Yoenis Cespedes – I struggled with Yoenis’ ranking. More so than a lot of other guys. I wanted to put him down with Ryan Braun, and just say I’m done with guys on the other side of 30. Cespedes, though, whether real or imagined or interjection, feels to me like Miggy three years ago. He had a down year, and he seemed done, then he rebounded with a solid season in 2016. Cespedes feels similar. He was totally fine last year when he was on the field, then he had some hamstring issues. If they’re behind him (literally and figuratively), I’m Hopsin’ing all over him. 2018 Projections: 82/31/93/.285/2 in 528 ABs
28. Eddie Rosario – Already gave you my Eddie Rosario sleeper. I wrote it while deleting the file Goatse.cx off my computer. (If you don’t know what that is, don’t Google it. By me saying don’t Google it, it makes you want to Google it, doesn’t it? Well, really, really don’t Google it then.) 2018 Projections: 88/30/96/.286/4 in 551 ABs
29. Joey Gallo – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball.
30. Trey Mancini – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball.
31. Tommy Pham – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Desmond. I call this tier, “Back support.” By this tier name I mean, you’re at 7-11, you start filling a 64 ounce Big Gulp, and about five minutes in, you start thinking, “Am I really going to drink all of this?” Then, five minutes later, as the drink starts to finish, you ask the lovely Punjabi man behind the counter, if he could help you carry the drink to the counter, and he says, “Back support in aisle three.” All of these guys are going to feel super fun when you draft them, but I hope by May you don’t throw your back out trying to carry them on your team. Yes, it’s early to be feeling less than confident in outfielders, but here we are. Don’t worry, outfielders get crazy/sexy/cool again later on, so don’t go chasing waterfalls. As for Pham, to be blunt, it feels like an effin’ joke how high Pham is going this year. I get it, he helped win people leagues last year. He helped me win leagues last year! But he’s going in the top 70 overall, and the top 20 outfielders. Have you seen his fly ball rate? He hits about as many fly balls as Joe Mauer and Yelich. Yeah, those guys are power hitters (if you move the fences in 60 feet). Have you seen Pham? Does he appear to be a guy who is an easy 20-homer hitter? He has a 51% ground ball rate. Dude’s a bad BABIP away from hitting .185 in April and being benched. Last year, he went 20/20, but this year his eyesight won’t even be 20/20. 2018 Projections: 83/16/63/.275/19 in 484 ABs
32. Andrew McCutchen – The Giants traded for McCutchen this offseason, after I started the rankings, so didn’t have a chance to go over him yet in his new environs. By the way, don’t ever say the word ‘environs’ in person to someone, they will have every right to punch you. McClutchin’ his knee defied my expectations last year by having a respectable season, but you’re crumby with crackers if you think now I’m going back in on him. Not to sound like a Fox announcer, but he seems like a professional hitter that can hit no matter what, but at some point his steals will disappear and he’s more of a 23-homer hitter than a 28-homer one. PNC is not exactly a hitters’ park, but AT&T makes it hard to go long distance too (without roaming charges). On a side note, you know what this Pirates’ sell-off means, right? The Mets will trade for David Freese! 2018 Projections: 82/23/90/.273/9 in 563 ABs
33. Gregory Polanco – Member what I was saying about 33 words ago (totally counted!) about what happens when a 15/20 guy fails to live up to expectations? Yeah, last year Polanco went 11/8. He could bounce back, but he picked up some bad swing tendencies last year, and he might be in a platoon by May if he doesn’t figure shizz out quickly. Though, the way the Pirates are selling off, I’m not sure who he’d platoon with. What’s Andy Van Slyke up to? 2018 Projections: 71/16/79/.254/15 in 509 ABs
34. Ryan Braun – Of course, Braun is in a tier called back support. Braun should enter the batter’s box with an IV and a nurse standing behind him. I blame Braun for my health insurance premiums! A case could be made that Braun can rebound like Yoenis, but I’m not here making that case. *Law & Order ominous chung CHUNG* 2018 Projections: 70/22/74/.265/10 in 487 ABs
35. Carlos Santana – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball.
36. Matt Olson – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball.
37. Ian Desmond – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball.
38. Nomar Mazara – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until top 60 outfielders for 2018 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Too bad there’s no outfielders to draft. PSYCH, SNITCHES.” I was struggling a lot with the outfielders from about Yelich until here, but now we’re back in on guys that are juicy AF, and I want to draft about eight outfielders in a five outfielder league. As for Nomar, already gave you a Nomar Mazara sleeper. I wrote it, then turned around in my chair dressed like Blake Shelton. 2018 Projections: 81/27/93/.278/3 in 571 ABs
39. Ender Inciarte – What is the difference between Ender and those 15/20 guys above? First, Ender’s a lot cheaper in drafts. Second, that first point has a lot to do with it. Third, there’s no third. Fourth, he hits for a solid average too, but it’s really about that first point. Fifth, seriously, that first point is so money. Sixth, should I just repeat the first point? Seventh, oh c’mon, it was in the first point! Eighth, I give up. Ninth, seriously, stop! Tenth, UGH! FIRST POINT! 2018 Projections: 96/14/52/.300/20 in 634 ABs
40. Domingo Santana – Something I noticed that I will tell you about after this awkward sentence intro, not a ton of steals last year, but some of the guys who did steal a solid number of bags, don’t even have blazing speed. The off-the-top-of-my-head guys I’ve mentioned in this post alone, Bregman, Benintendi and Santana. It worries me that Sunday Santana could return to being a five-steal guy, after stealing 15 last year, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, which is my favorite charity. “Headed to a Benefit of the Doubt, there’s some women honoring Dustin Hoffman with the benefit of the doubt.” UPDATE: Well, I’m glad I didn’t write a Domingo Santana sleeper post. The Brewers went last-minute outfielder shopping at Marline’s Basement, and grabbed Yelich, then they said, “What the hey” and grabbed Cain…Sugar! Now I have no idea where Domingo is playing. If there’s yet another trade, Domingo will move again. For now, I’ll leave him here, but if the Brewers don’t move him or another outfielder, Sunday Santana’s going to plummet in my rankings. 2018 Projections: 77/28/93/.261/12 in 531 ABs
Greyt work, as always.
Muchas gracias for your research.
U da man!
@Dodger Rabbit: No problem!
How do I delete the “podcast” because I can’t print out the rankings. I can do away with the new 2 minute video entirely if you tell me how.
@True and Correct: Is this a “troll-back”? Is your name Heath?
I’ve decided that your comment is not sarcasm…? Someone usually puts together a sheet in February or so. If you can’t wait that long for free content, you should pay for it elsewhere or make a sheet for yourself. Also consider scrolling past the video, as you would an add. These are things you can control on your own, true/correct?
@True and Correct: At minimum you could copy and paste the text portion to a word doc and print that. Printing entire web pages seems like hell on ink supply with or without the videos.
@Rum Ham: thank you
@True and Correct: I agree with Rum Ham, I always do tho
@Grey: thanks
No problem
Nomar!!!
@El Marco: Ramon in a mirror!
Loving that Rosario ranking—and I bet he’s available much later too!
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Prolly but I’m crazy about him
I’m so disappointed in Polanco I can’t even bring myself to do a projection for him.
I’m a Pham guy, do you see that walk rate? He’ll get on base even if his avg drops to .270ish and he’s fast (IFH% should be solid). I think he’s a lock for 20 steals and a ton of runs. He doesn’t have 30 HR upside but if bumps the FB% to 30-35, he’s a 25 HR hitter.
@Max Freeze: Not feeling the whole Pham thing
@Grey: that’s ok because I like Inciarte rank. AVG and runs always seem to be undervalued in fantasy.
@Max Freeze: it’s not easy (nor common) to just see a 29-30 year old just” turn a 51% GB rate into a 30-35%” one. it’s not like flipping a light switch here.
A Matt Olsen fan! See value in keeping him at $9 then?
Am trying to get DeGrom to keep for $21 next year. Would cost me a $3 Jon Gray though for next year is it worth it? Aces are often kept and I don’t have any keepable ones, so thought it would be a good idea to get my paws on one.
@Swfcdan: And if keep J Gray, keep him for one ($3) or 2 ($6) years? 2 sounds obvious but we only keep total of 8 each year so really need to maximise value with contracts.
@Swfcdan: And you always say depends on league size, so its s 12er!
@Swfcdan: Jon Gray would cost you what? deGrom or Olson?
@Grey: Getting Degrominator would cost me Grey yes. Oops not you I mean Gray!
And Olson isn’t involved in this? I’d take deGrom for Jon Gray
@Grey: Nah not involved. I just wondered if you see a $9 Olsen as a keeper?
Talking of Olson, did the Olsen twins use to be hot back in the day. I say yay, you say?
Maybe, depends on options
Grey!
Great write-up. I’m in a 10 team H2H 10 player keeper league. I’ve listed the 10 keepers I was thinking as well as the other players I could keep so let me know if you see any swaps. Obviously no pitchers being kept but I most teams keep between 7-9 batters so there will be good pitchers in the draft. I also thought of keeping Robles and Eloy even though they may not be studs in 2018 as if I let them go they would get scooped up:
Keepers:
Trea, Arenado, Bellinger, Jose Ramirez, Rhys Hoskins, Acuna, Benintendi, Devers, Robles, Eloy
Other options: Willie Calhoun, Danny Salazar, Ian Happ, Matt Olson, Francisco Mejia, Conforto, Odor, Kyle Tucker
I’m pumped about my keepers thanks to following your rankings and advice last year!
LG
@LG Baseball: @LG Baseball: Nice keepers! In a 10 teamer, i’d let Robles and Eloy go and focus on guys who will immediately contribute . . . for me, Happ and Odor (maybe Willie, but Odor is still only 24 or so).
@LG Baseball: Agree with Duda
@Grey: thanks guys – is Olson close or is Happ and Odor the 2 changes you’d make?
Happ and Odor
@Grey: thanks!
No problem
What has you concerned the bottom will fall out for khris Davis?
@Crime dog: age and plate discipline scare me.
@Curious George Springer:
He’s 30 and he walks a lot. Am I missing something?
@Justin: He didn’t walk a lot before last year. Sure does K a lot and his OBP is subpar. He has to hit 40 HR’s to be ranked where he is.
@Cram It: What Cram said. He’s a guy who will disappoint if he doesn’t do exactly what he was expect to produce, and who has no upside to do anything more (barring a trade to a great stadium/team).
To me, seems like another side of the same coin as the issue with all those 15/20 guys.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?:
Yeah, but all guys disappoint if they don’t do what we expect them to produce…that sounds strange…
@Justin: look at Chris Davis to see what we are talking about. he had similar BB/K rates a couple years ago. His K rate rose and some of his medium contact turned to weak contact.
@Curious George Springer
Similar profiles but not the same person. I’m talking about Khris not Chris!
@Justin: Not true. Machado disappointed because his average was low; Goldy because his HR’s were low last year. But they still fill the categories. If Davis doesn’t hit 40 HR’s, in that lineup, he’s Eric Thames.
@Cram It:
I’m not comparing Khris Davis to Machado or Goldy. Those guys are clearly better.
@Justin: Maybe this is a better one . . . Khris Davis vs. Odor . . . Odor lost all semblance of AVG last year, but still had value with the 30/15 he pulled.
@Justin: I get that. Then take any player that’s a HR only guy. If he’s not hitting a ton of HR’s, he’s probably draining you everywhere else. (Eric Thames)
@Crime dog: Ks/age
@Crime dog: See his namelganger for what Ks and age can do
@Grey: LOL. I was saying this same thing at the same time. Get out of my head, Albright!
Sorry, CGS
@Grey:
A sample size of one is why your lover thinks you’re the best. There’s an analogy there.
The small sample size strikes again!
@Grey: yeah I get it, his production seems so steady though.
Also I don’t know if I fully understand the age 30 thing. I get that some guys do fall off slightly after 30, but is anyone really falling off a cliff at 30? 30 just doesn’t seem to be that old in baseball. Some guys have their best years in their 30’s like Edwin, he sucked until he was 29 then was awesome from 29 until about now. Nelly cruz still kills it at 37, beltre another one, and more. I feel like there’s a decent amount that thrive in their 30’s. I can see the argument for speed falling off at that age, but for a guy to just stand up there and swing a bat I just don’t see how if a guy turns 30 he all of a sudden can’t do that.
So maybe guys who are like 15-20 homer guys and rely on speed for a lot of their value I could see wanting to avoid at 30, or guys with injury histories. But these power hitters seem to do just as well in their 30’s as long as they don’t have an injury history, which I think Khris would fall into that category.
For every Edwin, there’s three Trumbo’s… Well documented career path of majors leagues is peak mid to late 20’s, then trail off…
@Grey:
Trumbo KILLED it at age 30, he sucked at 28&29. It’s the well documented Trumbo Theory. Players fall off a cliff in their late 20s, have a resurgence at the age of 30, then continue to fall off the cliff.
Khris Davis is right at the sweet spot.
Haha, isn’t it the Trumbo Credo of Presumptive Presupposition?
@Grey: Chris Davis is on roids too, who knows for how long he has been. That can really speed up the aging process. he’s 31 but could have the body of a 37 year old. Maybe Khris davis does roids too. Khris’ track record, although similar, just seems more steady.
Not arguing your ranking either, you have Khris pretty high/where I would probably expect I just more like hearing your thoughts on why you think the end could be near for him, and the whole age 30 thing. Thanks for the response!
Did Chris Davis get busted?
@Grey: oh snap! I just looked, I guess it was amphetamines he got busted for, guess I just assumed roids. But yeah I guess I haven’t really looked at how many guys fall off at 30 relative to ones that don’t. Good stuff as always, thanks Grey!
No problem
Have to make a keeper decision in OBP – Rendon or Ozuna?
@Lil john: Rendon
@Lil john: Flip a coin…Rendon
Hey Grey,
I saw you had Sano ranked with the 1B. Is he supposed to be Minnesota’a starting 1B on opening day? Thanks.
No — Mauer will be starting at 1B, Sano (assuming he isn’t still recovering from surgery or suspended) will be starting at 3B.
Grey went over him with the 1Bs because he is eligible at 1B for fantasy and he did 1Bs before he did 3Bs and then OFs.
@Schwab: Agree with CGS
Thanks. I don’t think he is eligible at 1B in ESPN.
In Yahoo
On the plus side you have now covered all 5 of my starting OF in dynasty. On the negative side you are down on two of them in a non-sexual way. Here’s hoping Blackmon and Yelich don’t regress too badly.
Now I will anxiously await the comments complaining that the link in the Mancini blurb take them to another Mancini blurb with another link. You sly dog you.
@Jensen: That reminds me of my first day of teaching, when I accidentally promised my students an unusual punishment if they were found to plagiarize. There’s a big difference between “coming down hard on you” and “going down hard on you.” Unfortunately, the latter slipped out. They were freshman, though, so they just froze in shock. Had they been seniors, I would never have heard the end of it.
@Jensen: Haha
@Grey: Grey, thank you for taking my concerns so seriously and finding such a swift upgrade for my boy DJ Yeli. Scott Boras who? Grey Albright, agent extraordinaire!
I do what I can!
Arnold joke was spot on! Is the Pham ranking basically because of the groundball rate? I have to balance the risk of having him not replicate last year versus rostering Pham so I can have a pun in my team name.
@Justin: Haha, pun in team name is important…hmm…
@Grey:
Why Rosario and Mancini in a higher tier than Pham? Just a gut? Is it because Pham is about to turn 30? You hate 30-year olds…why? Were you particularly traumatized by someone at age 30?
I do like my players in their 20s unless they have a track record, which Pham has of about 3 months…
@Grey:
Avoiding the trauma part of the question I see.
You like an experienced older man with a track record…I know, KHRIS DAVIS!!!
I’ve been hurt! Damn you!
Checkin in on standard 12 team keeper values . . . we still like an $11 Devers keeper (+3 annually in 2019-on) over a $5 Rosario or $14 Story, right?
My hope is that Rosario and Story can be drafted for less than that this year . . . Devers I could see going for $15.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Amed or Eddie? I think Devers either way. I think Eddie Rosario will be an under the radar guy. People don’t believe in Twins players (even though the Twins offense was really pretty good LY, and should be better TY).
@Curious George Springer: Eddie, sorry. Yea, wouldn’t be surprised if we could all snag Eddie for $6-$8 tops.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: I lean Devers for the ceiling in his prime. Btw, were you ever able to get your mitts on $12 Bryant?
@Rum Ham: Thanks for asking! SO close, but still working on it. He’s generally on board with the preferred 2:2 pairing, but likes his $4-$5 keepers (Mancini/Whit, etc.) more than $11 Devers due to price (not talent) . . . he gets that JDM may outproduce KB in several categories (HR, RBI, maybe AVG), but can’t get past the disparity in age, esp. since it’s a keep forever format. I get it, of course, but man it was so close to happening!
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Is there any of the options he would do right now, or did he get cold feet all together? Don’t let the door shut on cheap-forever Bryant! Not a knock on JD either, but Bryant has several more yrs of prime left and no injury history. Make it hap’n cap’n!
@Rum Ham: thanks! I think cold feet for now. He would do 1:1 for my $3 Cody Bellinger, but I don’t think I’d do that one…probably not at least
@Rum Ham: Thanks for asking! SO close, but still working on it. He’s generally on board with the preferred 2:2 pairing, but likes his $4-$5 keepers (Mancini/Whit, etc.) more than $11 Devers due to price (not talent) . . . he gets that JDM may outproduce KB in several categories (HR, RBI, maybe AVG), but can’t get past the disparity in age, esp. since it’s a keep forever format. I get it, of course, but man it was so close to happening!
@Rum Ham: Thanks for asking! SO close, but still working on it. He’s generally on board with the preferred 2:2 pairing, but likes his $4-$5 keepers (Mancini/Whit, etc.) more than $11 Devers due to price (not talent) . . . he gets that JDM may outproduce KB in several categories (HR, RBI, maybe AVG), but can’t get past the disparity in age, esp. since it’s a keep forever format. I get it, of course, but man it was so close to happening!
@Rum Ham: Thanks for asking! SO close, but still working on it. He’s generally on board with the preferred 2:2 pairing, but likes his $4-$5 keepers (Mancini/Whit, etc.) more than $11 Devers due to price (not talent) . . . he gets that JDM may outproduce KB in several categories (HR, RBI, maybe AVG), but can’t get past the disparity in age, esp. since it’s a keep forever format. I get it, of course, but man it was so close to happening!
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Even if Rosario does well, he’s never gonna have price tag like Devers doing well
Mr. President,
Two questions:
(1) I don’t know how to put an avatar on here and “claim that shizz,” as you put it.
(b) When a school mom drops her kids off in yoga pants, isn’t she just asking for the drop-off dads to wind up accidentally calling their wives by her name later that day?
(2) (see what I did there?) With Polanco’s decreased status, isn’t he a pretty good candidate for drafts? He’s probably going to be drafted way late based on his bad last year, but he’s demonstrated the skills, and as baseball-y guys will say, once you’ve shown a skill, you have it. I see a bounceback and a good buy-low on him. Plus, he’ll probably get traded to a contender (hellooooo Yankees!!) at some point this year.
I’ll patiently await your response.
@Big Mike: A. What CGS said B. Ha! 2. If you can get Polanco relatively cheap, sure… But even if you got him cheap last year, you didn’t want him…
Grey or Ralph–Where in the OF do you see Lewis Brinson and Ronald Acuna settling? Brinson in CF and Acuna in RF?
Ralph–
Would you consider doing a post (similar to Halp’s unfinished IBW post “inexperienced…”) addressing players who are no longer prospects, but not really expected to start in MLB, with an eye towards dynasty value? I love that IBW post, and am sad that it never got finished. Its an extremely useful comparison. You da man for the job. Where do guys like David Dahl and Frankie Martes fit relative to prospects?
@The Eye of Horus: Yeah, CF and RF prolly
@Grey: Thank you, sir.
No problem
How many guys who are going to steal between 0-5 bases can you start in a 12 team roto (13 hitters started total)? I have Schoop, Mancini, Rosario, Ozuna, plus whoever I have at C. That seems like a lot of guys who are just total negatives on SB. Trea can only carry me so far right?
@Jensen: You’ll probably need 125-150 SB’s to be anywhere in the top half.
@Cram It: 220 was league high last year but 2nd was 172 and 3rd and 4th (me) were 154 and 153. I think I’m going to end up near 150 again despite having Turner which seems like a bit of a waste but we’ll see. Goldy and Blackmon probably only going to get me 20-25 combined. Sad! Need Bradley Zimmer to play 150 games.
@Jensen: Right, there’s usually an outlier who is stacked with almost too much speed. So 150 and you’re in the top quarter. You don’t need to come out of the draft with more than that.
@Jensen: He gave Rosario 4, but FWIW Steamer gives him 10. He’s stolen about ten each of the last three years (across various levels). I do agree you’ll want some guys who will get you 15-20 to make up for a few zeroes, but that’s pretty typical.
@Jensen: Agree with Cram
Grey,
So excited to have your rankings back and I LOVE the videos!!! Great job!!!! When does the Grey fantasy baseball movie come out? I would totally pay $45 for a ticket and some snacks to see your showing.
6×5 keeper league, including obp, keep 6 players and forfeit the round they were drafted in. Of the 8 below, who are the two I lose? Unfortunately I’m going to have to lose one of Acuna or Judge bc I don’t have two 24th round picks.
Trout (1)
Abreu (3)
Goldschmidt (5)
Yelich (6)
Arenado (13)
Archer (20)
Judge (24)
Acuna (24)
@Charlie: The Grey movie would be free but you’d have to sit through 3 hours of commercials… Lose Yelich (easy), Abreu (tough)
@Grey:
Are you voicing over the commercials?If so I’d totally sit through 3 hours of commercials. I think you could somehow plug Razzball into a Torjan commercial. Hell, you could plug Razzball into every commercial. Think about your mini animated Grey doing the commercials while somehow working Razzball into the content…
I wish I could toss Abreu and Yelich back and keep the others, but I can’t keep both Judge and Acuna at 24. I only have one round 24 pick so I’d have to choose one. Then that would leave me deciding between Abreu at 3 or Yelich at 6.
So my 6 would look like this…
Trout (1)
Goldschmidt (5)
Arenado (13)
Archer (20)
Abreu (3) or Yelich (6)
Judge (24) or Acuna (24)
Of these two, who do I keep, Judge (24) or Acuna (24)?
Of these two, who do I keep, Abreu (3) or Yelich (6)?
I like how you think, Charlie!
Oh, then I’d go with Abreu assuming you have a CI and you have to keep Judge…
@Grey:
Lol when do we get started on “Grey Albright: Fantasy Baseball Lothario”? We could even make a mini Rudy too and introduce him at some point.
We don’t have a CI spot, but instead two util spots. So I’d just put Abreu in one of my utils. Abreu it is.
Ok, now to try and trade one of Acuna or Judge…
My only concern with throwing back Yelich and trading Acuna is I’m a bit light on speed with an abundance of power.
Trout and Goldschmidt give me both power/speed (although I see Goldy losing some of his sbs with age), but Abreu, Arenado, and Judge are all power. Going to need to infuse some speed during the draft.
You mean — Grey Albright: Fantasy Baseball Lothario, Commercial Pitchman
SAGNOF, don’t keep Acuna over Judge bc of steals
@Grey:
Why stop there? Grey Albright: Fantasy Baseball Lothario, Commercial Pitchman, Author of ‘Sporting the Perfect Mustache’, and Man of all things Sexy.
I’d keep Acuna over Judge bc some are saying he’s the next Trout. .300, ~25 hrs, ~30 sbs…again, he hasn’t done it yet, but that potential is a lot sexier than Judge since he’s a one trick pony.
The other concern is Abreu just turned 30 where as Yelich is 26, entering his prime, and can offer both power and speed.
Judge’s trick is pretty sexy tho — Yelich isn’t steals, he’s a bore, forget him…
@Grey:
Judge and Abreu it is. Who were we talking about again? Acuna and some middle schooler?
Acuna and Joey Parrish, my BFF from 4th grade
@Charlie:
This is a keeper league so that’s why the choice between Judge and Acuna at 24 is so difficult.
Judge has already done it, go with bird in hand
@Grey:
Grey, with Yelich now on the Brewers would you still keep Abreu (3) over Yelich at (6)?
Abreu is a top 30 guy, Yelich is a 50 guy…So, still toss up
@Grey:
Ok thanks! Do you think Yelich get a boost in value switching teams?
@Charlie:
Lol and now LoCain just signed with the Brewers! This has to help Yelich even more.
Can’t hurt
See in the post you’re commenting on
@Charlie: Seems like you really ought to be trying to trade Judge or Acuna – someone should be willing to pay a hefty price for one of them.
Agree with Len
@LenFuego: Or trade for another 24th round pick.
OF rankings turn into the wild wild west after about the top 15 or so. Massive variance across sites. I’m torn whether I want to just pay up to grab 2 early and avoid this minefield portion all together until draft gets into the 100’s, then just scoop up all that sweet, sweet depth later on.
On the bright side several OF’s that I have tepid-at-best interest in will absorb picks in the 60-90 range. I haven’t seen such an unsexy patch on one unit since that rash “my friend” had back in ’08.
@Rum Ham:
Did your friends rash look like Christian Yelich?
@Justin: Unfortunately it was more of a Bartolo situation..
@Rum Ham: Agreed, Rum Ham… Grab two early, then ride the lightning for 7 rounds, then go back in for more sexy… Unless you’re skipping Acuna, then don’t…
I have towels in my house that are 12 years older than Acuna. They’re still fluffy, too.
@The Eye of Horus: Haha
I have too much of an emotional connection in the move I made to get Schwarber early. By the rankings, it doesn’t even look close. I should keep Rosario over Schwarber. Is it even a debate at this point?
@Chicitysox23: Not especially
Long Time listener, First time Caller. Thanks for having me, really happy to be here….I just made this trade in my full dynasty league. Zero fee to keep players, No time limit, 10 minor league spots. 10×10 and 25 roster spots (12 hitting, 12 pitching, 1 bench)
Sano, Knebel, Javy Baez
For
Yelich, D Swanson, and Gerrit Cole
(trade was made 3 weeks before Cole was traded to astros)
Which Group of players do you prefer?
Thanks for being here! Sano side, not that close
Grey,
Thoughts on swapping Rendon and Conforto (or Pham) for Freeman? 10 team, 10 keepers, AVG and OPS.
Thanks
Sounds fair (Conforto)
Tommy Pham almost certainly looks exactly like a guy who will hit hrs. He’s jacked. I’m confused.
Guess we’ll see
@Grey: he might the most muscular non Phillies coach in the game
Haha
I think a lot of people are sleeping on Kevin Kiermaier. Guys projected for 20-20…
I’m currently sleeping on him
@Grey: same, he’s actually quite comfy for a thin man…
Surprisingly spacious!
Grey –
This morning on my drive to work I heard Dr. Roto on sirius/xm Fantasy Sports Channel give Razzball, and you, some big time mad props for the work you do … saying he reads Razzball all the time and you’re “one of the best in the industry”, and cited your Blake Snell sleeper post …
I know saying this makes me look all gossipy, but what the heck, just thought I’d mention it.
Speaking of fantasy talk on satellite radio, I also heard this morning Jim “prospect fluffer” Bowden NOT fluff Lewis Brinson, saying he luv’s the tools but doesn’t think he’ll hit (he said the same thing about Keon Broxton) … since I own both Brinson and Broxton I thought I’d ask you if you had thoughts on that…
Thoughts about Bowden’s take on Brinson?
Nice! I like Dr. Roto…. HA! Of course Bowden loves Brinson’s tools, he’s a Bowden Fluffer (see Razzball glossary)
10 team 5×5 roto 4-keeper league. Standard $260 auction. I have very inexpensive keeepers – Bellinger, Lamb, Devers and Hand that cost me $18 so I have $260-18 or $242 to spend. We have a 190 GS limit. Roster – 13 offensive spots, 9 pitching spots and 4 bench spots.
In this format, with $242 to spend and 3 starters already filled, how much would you spend on pitching? $100? $80????
3 starters meaning starting regular players not pitchers.
I’d make sure I had a great staff and not worry so much about price since you have such cheap keepers… Maybe $120
Don’t you kind of just want to skip high priced OF entirely, spend that money more on provden infield assets, and stock up on 4-5 later/cheaper OF bats? The cheap OF guys you can get will give such better overall production than cheap middle infield bats (i.e say Javier Baez).
There’s some inherent risk not getting at least one top OF, bc that’s the position of a ton of fantasy’s top hitters, but it seems like your overall lineup could end up looking really nice if you avoid spending early there.
I can find unproven infielders too… Too general of a statement, specific players in outfield are great, as in the infield
@Grey:
I don’t know if you can find a guy who gives Nomar Mazara-type nunmbers in the middle infield for as cheap as Mazara will go, and it seems like Mazara-types (i.e. Rosario) are plentiful in the outfield.
It just seems like the cheaper guys who go later in the OF are a lot more reliable (and also have more upside) than the cheap middle infield options.
Depends how you feel about Marwin types
Who would you rather have for the next 3 years: Mike Trout & Byron Buxton or Paul Goldschmidt & Francisco Lindor?
Trout
hmm, interesting rank on Whit and Andrus, confusing my keepers.( was leaning kluber andrus rendon gray) Can keep 4 of the following for 1 yr; Top bids were trout at $50 and kershaw at $41
Kluber 28
Kimbrel 15
Andrus 6
Whit 6
Rendon 16
Gray, jon 1
Wood 4
moncada 1
Smoak 3
Andrus at that price isn’t bad… I’d go Wood over Gray, and Moncada over Andrus…Whit’s not bad either, you have a bunch of toss ups…
well that clears that up – i been tossing for a week
Haha
Grey, always the best stuff – really solid fantasy content, year in, year out. Plus I win or place top-3 (in the money) in my leagues every year with your help. THANKS!
10 team 5×5 NL-only keeper auction. 1C/2B/SS/3B/5OF/3U/10P. $300 to spend minus prices of 8 keepers. Can keep forever, so elite hitters quite valuable and are never available in draft unless just coming over from the AL. Which 8/10 would you keep from the following?:
Freeman 1B – $28
JD Martinez OF – $22
O. Arcia SS – $20
Darvish SP – $16
Braun OF – $16
L Weaver SP – $15
Polanco OF – $14
Godley SP – $13
Taillon SP – $12
Fowler OF – $11
Baez 2B/SS – $10
Heyward OF – $10
CarGo OF – $9
A Cabrera 3B/SS/2B – $7
Lucroy C – $7
Jankowski OF – $2
Harvey SP – $1
V Velasquez SP – $1
Chatwood SP – $1
C Richard SP – $1
M Fried SP – $1
Had some bad luck losing Dee Gordon in the offseason, so will need your two best backups (in-order of preference) if Martinez and Darvish go to the AL or don’t sign. THANKS!!!!!
Thanks!
Freeman 1B – $28
JD Martinez OF – $22
Darvish SP – $16
Braun OF – $16
V Velasquez SP – $1Polanco OF – $14
Godley SP – $13
Taillon SP – $12
Baez
Polanco
Does it matter darvish hasn’t signed yet?
@Grey: Awesome, thanks!
Yes, if Darvish doesn’t sign with an NL club by March 15th, I lose him. Same with JD Martinez.
Ugh, that sucks
@Grey: And you really hate CarGo. Not a big fan of Fowler too, I see…
You like CarGo?
@Grey: If he signs, at $9 he could be more interesting than paying for a pitcher. But I’d much rather the Rox cut bait with him and sign JD Martinez as their right fielder!!
Same goes for Fowler if he can get some steady PT.
Yeah, I don’t love that lose him scenario if they sign in the AL…. When do you have to decide by?
@Grey: March 15th is when the keeper picks go final. Can change them as many times as I want before then, but nothing changes afterwards unless they get injured, and no players not signed with an NL organization is eligible.
Thanks again for all your help!! Let me know if that changes anything in your recommendations.
No problem
12 team 5×5 roto keeper league, we keep 15 players.
Keeping these 13
Bats – Hoskins, Rizzo, Arenado, Machado, Lindor, Harper, Benintendi, Senzel
SP – Kluber, Nola, Ray, Berrios
RP – Knebel
My options (due to salaries) come down to these options
1. Colome and B. Zimmer
2. Vizcaino and one of these; B. Zimmer, W. Calhoun, L. Brinson, Smoak, Mejia, Bauer.
Do I go with option 1 or option 2? And if I go with option 2, who do I keep from that group?
1
In a H2H points league I can keep 6. I’ve got 5 nailed down and are no-doubters. None of the 5 are pitchers so I’m thinking that my last keeper should be a pitcher. Otherwise when I start drafting in the 7th round there would be no top tier starters left. My choices are either Bumgarner or Severino. Which should I keep?
Severino
16 team 6×6 h2h dynasty. I need to clear a roster spot so i’m looking to deal brett phillips. i’m debating what round to look for a pick in for him. You have him even in your top 100 OFs? what stat line you projecting for him, if any? I’m thinking about asking for a 2nd rd minor league draft pick but not sure if that’s too rich. I know it ultimately depends on the person trading for him but i don’t want to start asking an outrageous price.
thanks grey!
He is in my top 100 OF, barely… He’s a platoon player likely
@Grey: Thanks Grey!
No problem, brian
Hey Grey, keepers looking like
1- Desmond (LF)
2 – Odor
3 –
SS – C Taylor (2B, LF, CF)
LF – Hoskins (1B)
CF-
RF-
Util-
BN- G Torres
SP – Sale, J Gray
RP – Osuna, Diaz
Who would you shape out my last 2 spots with?
Bats – Franco, Brinson, W Calhoun, Rosario, O Arcia, Dahl, Lucroy
Pitching – Salazar, Bundy, Honeywell, Familia, Betances
15 teams, 8×8 , cats include OBP, SLG and K and K/9
thinking Salazar and one of Calhoun/Brinson
Rosario? Amed? Eddie?
@Grey: Amed
Brinson, Salazar
No love for the TLC joke…
RIP Left Eye
@Grey:
My love for her still burns
Andre Rison, is that you?
@Grey:
Laugh all you want at Bad Moon Rison, but he’s laughing all the way to the bank! Dude probably has tens of millions of…oh wait
I believe Andre Rison is now a financial advisor.
@Grey:
Can we blame poor financial decisions on heartbreak? I’d like to think that we can
Yes, IRS recognizes that.
Hey coach,
How much is Domingo Santana’s value tied to Miller Park ???
I know it plays up for lefties but assume it is neutral/ normal for right handed power ???
I know there are rumors he could get traded due to the outfield sir plus in Milwaukee.
Hit the bench, meat!
Domingo’s getting traded? Why?
@Grey:
Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reports that the Brewers are getting close to a trade.
The club has been shopping dynamic outfielder Domingo Santana this off season, but have yet to find a potential match in any deal. The Brewers have a logjam of outfielders, so making a move prior to the start of spring training seems like an inevitability. Jan 21 – 5:44 PM
Brewers are nuts, dude is only 25.
That is crazy
@Grey:
Santana gone for sure now. Likely with a minor league arm or two (Ortiz?) for a frontline starter. Brewer fans would rather see Broxton go, but Santana has more value (and Braun isn’t going anywhere with that contract)…frontline starter coming back and still may sign Darvish.
Did I missed it? or did Keith Law OMITTED 3B Austin Riley from his top 100 + list? Can somebody please confirm it for me. Grey or a follower, please.
Keith Law is the worst
@Grey:
Idk, he seems pretty humble….
After an encounter with the Iron Sheik
@Grey:
Nice! I prefer wrestlers that have no specific skill other than fat, like Tugboat
Did he enter the ring wearing a mini boat for trunks?
@Grey:
sailors cap
Boras is trying to get rid of that
Rum Ham’s question got me thinking . . .
1. Would you trade your $3 Bellinger for a $12 Bryant in a keep forever (+$3 annually) league? I’ve been so enamored with Bellinger that the thought never even crossed my mind.
2. Similarly, would you trade your $18 Goldy for that $12 Bryant?
If you like Bryant in either of the above, who would you prefer to part with?
1. Nope 2. Nah
@Grey: Thank you kindly, same here!
No problem, Duda.
Yikes! What’s with the beef between you and Eno Sarris? (today’s chat!!!)
I wasn’t aware of one
Huge trade, Yelich a Brewer!
Nice!
holy crap is that yelich trade GREAT for everybody involved. i always thought of yelich as a bum (not worth his high draft slots lately) but he will probably be pretty good for fantasy now (but the ADP will go up again so i still won’t own him); brinson/i.diaz however this is VERY good for. brinson will stopped being called a “failure” after like 30 at bats total or however many MIL jerked him around into totaling, he’ll actually need to ya know, fail, before getting that label now.
@I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail: well rotoworld is now calling yelich a “top 10 OF” and yeppers, that don’t sound right, but people will believe it enough to even more overvalue him.
He’s not a top 10 OF, that’s silly
And now the Brewers sign Cain. What the hell does that mean for the OF?
@ThE sHiT: gotta mean braun is just gone, just not official yet.
@I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail:
Braun not going anywhere. Contract prohibitive. Santana and minor leaguer Ortiz for a frontline starter and still the possibility of signing Darvish.
@VegasJSS: if i was them i’d go for the contract dump of braun to make money room (you know they need this to do darvish), if possible. and it sure seems possible all kinds of teams eat garbage deals all the time.
Flippin’ mess
What do you think Grey? This hurt or help Brinson?
Also J up or Hoskins in an obp keeper ..
@Nightpandas: i’d think hoskins mostly from age. brinson is absolutely helped in the short term. longer term MIA will be bad for a while and bad park. but if MIL was only going to jerk him around or trade him he at least went somewhere where they simply don’t (and won’t) have options to not play him.
Best content in fantasy. Thanks again
Trade advice please.
14 team deep mixed keeper – $7 escalation each year
I was offered Whit Merrifield ($1) and Jake Lamb ($8)
For Acuna ($1)
If it’s a no, what level of value can you expect from Acuna?
Thanks again.
No problem, I’d have to say no, and would want a top 30 overall player for Acuna…
@Grey:
To continue….
Was offered $12 JD Martinez and $1 Berrios
For my $1 Acuna and $13 Nola
14 team mixed – deep league – $260 budget – $7 escalation
Current keepers (keep 9)
Hosmer – $16
Nunez – $8
Mancini – $1
Josh Bell – $1
Olson -$1
Acuna – $1
Nola – $13
Alex Wood – $1
Knebel – $1
Go for it or hold?
Thanks!
Come to my newest post so I don’t have to go all over Razzcampus to find your followups