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I know what you’re thinking, haven’t we already called Nomar Mazara a sleeper?  So?  We can’t ever call a guy a sleeper again after calling him one?  I know, this is so logical it’s absolutely nuts.  Crazy Town, population: My Stache.  “I think you should get into government.”  “Why?”  “Because you’re the only one living in Crazy Town, and you can shore up the vote pretty easily.”  That’s some local townspeople and My Stache discussing My Stache getting into government.  Nomar Mazara is so forgotten he’s behind this blank space              and you need one of those special highlighters to rub over the space to reveal his name.  Mezuzah was hung at the door of “Breakout” two years ago and has been collecting dust ever since.  Last year, in his attempt to deflate any optimism about his career, he hit 20 HRs, stole 2 bags and .253.  Hit the snooze alarm, I’m getting drowsy.  “Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the most boring player?”  “Hmm, does that say Ramon or Nomar?  It’s hard to read in a mirror.”  So, what can we expect from Nomar Mazara for 2018 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Two years is an awfully short period of time to write someone off, especially when the player is Nomar Mazara.  He’s only 22 years old.  Read that last sentence again.  He’s barely able to buy Tito’s vodka at the five and dime without his dad’s backwards ID.  Most players would’ve, ya know, been hitting in the minors the last two years.  He barely saw a few weeks in Triple-A in his entire professional career.  Here’s what I’ve said previously about him, “He won’t struggle to hit .220.  He won’t be a liability anywhere.  He kinda reminds me of a young Matt Holliday, though from the other side of the dish.  I watched some of his YouTube highlights and he doesn’t struggle to hit balls a long way, but also doesn’t look like a fat turd that can’t make it to first.  I’m no scout, but watching him makes me think this is what scouts call sexy.  I’ve seen him compared to Miguel Cabrera.  Okay, no one is Miguel Cabrera until they are Miguel Cabrera, if you catch my drift, but Mazara doesn’t look like a guy that is going to disappoint.  .280 with 30 homers a season for many years, that’s what he profiles as.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Only catch, I said that two years ago!  So, he didn’t become Holliday or Miggy out of the gate.  Um, so?  Tommy Pham didn’t just breakout until the age of 29.  That’s the opposite extreme, but Mazara might not breakout until 25, but it will happen at some point.  Steamer projects Mazara to increase his power by 30% for 2018.  This is Steamer who is usually very conservative.  Out of curiosity, or simply a curio if any grandmothers are reading, I sorted the last 17 years for players who were promoted at the age of 21 or younger.  There’s more future Hall of Famers there than there’s flameouts.  For every three Trouts, there’s a Rocco Baldelli.  For every three Pujols (Poo-eye?), there’s a Delmon Young.  It is way too early to write off Mazara and I’m absolutely drafting him everywhere this year.  For 2018, I’ll give Nomar Mazara the projections of 81/27/93/.278/3 in 571 ABs.

   
  1. GP says:
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    This is the year right ? It has to be !!!!

    He has to improve that ground ball rate % and do a better job vs lefties .

    I’m still dreaming of 40 bombs in his prime years .

    Great read Grey , way to give those of that are all in on him , some hope !

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @GP: This is it! I hope so…

  2. FrankGrimes says:
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    Survivor is to soft now.
    It should get harder instead lol.
    Seems like they get food and idols every other minute these days?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @FrankGrimes: I know, agree… I miss the days when they’d be eating rats… Also, with the idols, Jesus… Every tribal has one played…

  3. Tim says:
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    Which side do you prefer in 5×5 dynasty?

    L. Brinson for E. Rosario/Luis Castillo

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Tim: Rosario

  4. builtfordsexy says:
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    Hey Grey. Long-time reader, first-time commenter. 12-team 7 player keeper league and need to lose two of these guys:

    Shaw
    DeJong
    Albies
    Conforto

    Also, I have some great draft capital due to a late season purge last year. You think Acuna is top 100 material?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @builtfordsexy: I think Acuna is top 100 material… As for who to lose… I’d definitely keep Albies, then it’s a toss up on who to lose from last three… I’d likely lose DeJong, Conforto

  5. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Who do you like more for a buy low MI option . . . Villar or Odor? Leaning Villar because I expect him to be $5 or less in 12 teamers, Odor still hit a ton of homers last year so will probably still go above $10…

  6. Cram It says:
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    Keep forever, I’ve rank them: Conforto, Acuna, Mazara. You? I don’t know much about Acuna except how much Razzball loves him. I can’t realistically tell what kind of player he compares to over a career.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: Forever? I’d go Acuna, Conforto, Maz… with steals making the difference in each…

      • Cram It says:
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        @Grey: FOR. EV. ER. I’m pretty sure I like Conforto more than you. Maybe more than most. I think he’s a low 30 HR/.290 guy.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I like Conforto, but, man, I wish he played a full year last year and was gonna be healthy to start this year…

          • Cram It says:
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            @Grey: Looks like, though it’s still early, he may only miss the first week or two. Brings his draft price down. But seriously, because Mets, I pray to all things holy that he has a career not riddled with injuries.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, if he were on any other team, I’d be less hesitant, the Mets have scarred me badly…

  7. Willy Mo says:
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    Im very cool with this but please dont tell me theres one of these comming for Max Kepler :/

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha

  8. NatroneMeansBusiness says:
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    Another 22 year old OF from a previous sleeper post: Jorge Soler. I totally drank the kool aid. Is this the year of Soler power?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m gonna guess no, but projections don’t hate him if he gets 500 ABs — 25 HRs, .240… Not 12 team good, but some value there…

  9. LenFuego says:
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    I have had Mazara the past two seasons waiting for the breakout and I have a tough keep-or-not decision on him this year.

    His swing looked so sweet when he first came up, but to my eye his swing got “busy” last season. He had a big front leg lift and then there seemed to be a loop in the swing with a lot of moving parts as he swung … he appeared to be constantly out of sync and off-balance as he tried to time his swing with the front foot plant (especially against breaking balls).

    For a guy that has as much natural power as he does, he ought to have as simple a swing as possible … keep the weight back, take a short stride and just let the swing go. I suspect he would have benefited greatly from a year or two more in the minors to refine the swing and approach. I will be checking out his swing in spring training to see whether I see any improvements before I decide whether to keep him or several other alternatives I have on my roster.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Gotcha, makes sense

  10. J-FOH says:
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    Among qualified batters last year who had an ISO less than .200, only one hit 30 bombs (Odor). In his minor and majors career, where he had a minimum of 100 AB’s, Maz has only eclipsed this number once (single A). I’m not saying he won’t hit 30 bombs, between adjustments and maturing he can easily become this 30 dong playa. This year I want to see that plate discipline go back to 2016 because if he keeps swinging and missing (up 2.5%) and making less contact (down 5%) then Houston, I mean Arlington, we may have a problem. On the flipside, cutting that GB rate and upping the FB rate is trending in the direction we want it to. I guess what I’m saying is if he doesn’t breakout yet then be patient, it will….eventually

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He passes the eye test if you watch him… Very few guys have as mature a swing as him at the age of 22… I agree, I think it’s coming for him, just a matter of when…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: He does have a beautiful swing. I didn’t really see him last year so I only have 2016 to base it off of.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You didn’t miss anything last year with him… Speaking of watching, you watch Patriot?

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: not yet

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Get on it!

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: you sure are a pushy Jew today. Stop acting the Meschugener

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I enjoyed something, and I want you to also enjoy… Not pushy, super consideratey!

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: Im all holiday stressed out

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Flip that stressed out around for Desserts tuo!

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      I dont know what that is but its making me hungry

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It does sound delish…

  11. Squat Cobbler says:
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    Great stuff Grizzle (it’s okay, we’re O-T-I friends!…as opposed to UTI friends.)

    The following list are members of the top 50 or so Highest HR/Plate appearance over the last 3 years. Which of these do you think are most likely to rebound/take a step up:

    Schwarber
    Chris Davis
    T Frazier
    Chris Carter
    Alvarez
    Bour
    Trumbo
    Story
    Gattis
    Grichuk
    Joc Pederson

    Thanks Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      We can be UTI friends too, if you burn when you pee… Story, Bour, Schwarber

      • Squat Cobbler says:
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        @Grey: ” if you burn when you pee…” I mean, yeah, but it was just one time… And she apologized and told me medicine would take care of it! It did!

        Thanks for your picks. In Pederson’s case, is it lack of a starting spot or more like ‘strikes out too much to ever hold a starting spot’ or something else?

        Thanks again!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          She sounds like a keeper! Pederson’s okay, but he’s a platoon guy right now…

  12. Speill says:
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    Hi Grey. Still trying to peddle off Trout without getting burned. Your thoughts please.not fond of Trout at $67 so would prob not keep him. Thinking of offering Trout $67 and Ozuna $5 for Correa $37. Ozuna at $5 is a bargain but Correa top ten guy. Thanks Grey

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not crazy about it

      • Speill says:
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        @Grey: Thanks I appreciate it

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  13. PB&J says:
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    What’s happening Grey? Spring Training is in 55 days!!!

    Fantasy Football has bored me to death so lets breath some life back into my fantasy sports world and talk baseball keepers.

    Here are my league details:

    Categories:
    Batting: R, HR, RBI, K, SB, AVG, OPS
    Pitching: K, QS, W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K/9

    Draft:
    Auction, $280 budget

    Keepers:
    We get 3 keepers and can hold players for a max of 3 years. Each year costs +$8 .

    Here are my (poo poor) options:

    McCann – $12
    Dee Gordon- $22
    Arenado- $53
    Odor- $27
    Bryant- $50
    K. Davis- $17
    Springer- $34
    Freeman- $34
    Giles- $23
    Bundy- $9
    Folty- $9
    Alex Wood- $8
    Machado- $48
    K. Seager- $24
    Godley- $8
    Faria- $8
    Pham- $8

    I’m leaning towards keeping Freeman, Wood, and Pham. What do you think? I can always keep less than 3…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Woo-hoo! I think your options aren’t so good… Freeman, Gordon, Davis

      • PB&J says:
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        @Grey: Thanks, Grey! That’s a nice well rounded base with a high floor.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          That’s what I’m thinking

          • Crime dog says:
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            @PB&J: can we talk about how much fantasy football sucks. It’s basically like walking through a mine field. It’s a battle of attrition. Whoever can tiptoe through the minefield with the least amount of injuries wins. @Grey:

  14. Mike

    Mike says:
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    Is this still a safe space to talk about Top Chef? No offense to mustaches, but mustache bro kinda irritates me this season.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I know! Giving mustaches a bad name… On a side note, Bruce, who all the chefs knew the first episode, should not be on the show… I’ve been to his restaurant and it’s one of the best in LA and everyone knows him… he’s a Top Chef Master if anything…

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        @Grey: yeah man, i kinda got that feeling from the getgo…like he is in a diff league

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          He shouldn’t be on the show, in the best way possible…

  15. Eric says:
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    Keep one: Ben Span or Denard Revere

  16. Matt says:
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    Grey, just wanted your thoughts on a certain guy because I’m at a crossroads with him. Chris Davis, Orioles. Has he begun his career decline? Looks to me like he has based on changing his swing, spray charts, and pitiful production last year.

    I’ve got him in a dynasty forever league, and he’s wearing on me like Adam Dunn did before I sent him to the trash heap. How much longer would you give Davis or do you think he’ll bounce back this season?

  17. n_ says:
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    I’m with you, buying Nomar everywhere in 2018. Hitting 30 hrs would be a great step forward, but he still knocked in 100+ runs in what can be considered a down year. Lots of room to grow.

  18. Tommy says:
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    Thank you Grey- I’m evaluating a Lindor for Sano and Victor Robles trade. Which side do you like in a dynasty 16 team?

    Thanks

  19. dave anchovies says:
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    hey, happy holidays razzballers

    no further questions.

    -dave

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Have a good holiday!

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