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Welcome to “I Can’t Believe It’s Another No-Hitter,” with your host, E-Dub B! Our previous guests included Carlos Rodon and Joe Musgrove. This week, we’ve got Madison Bumgarner, the one-time love of your life, World Series hero, the original Shohei Ohtani (or is it Jacob deGrom?), and current fantasy friend zoner. How many hats can one person wear in their career? Come, join me after the jump and let’s talk about the one that got away: MadBum!

Top 100 Starting Pitchers Header

News and Notes

Madison BumgarnerA 7-inning no-no and if you don’t want to call that a no-hitter, just fuhgeddaboutit and get outta here. If MLB is going to make the game “official” after 5 innings and make 7-inning double-headers count as games, then you’re sure as Hades (Aspect of Lucifer ftw) going to recognize the 7-inning no-hitter. I mean, the MLB app is freaking notifying me in inning 6 when there’s a no-no going on. In this house [points to Razzball HQ, which is lined in ketchup packets and Weird Al merch] we recognize 7-inning no-nos. Also, I told you in my Saturday DFS article to start Bumgarner, ‘cept he got delayed, so if you read me Saturday and followed through on Sunday, you made yourself some cash. thank and you. ENYWHEY. MadBum’s been mad unlucky to start the year. Yeah, he’s not great, but he had something like a .400+ BABIP going into Sunday, and regression to the mean sometimes happens in awesome ways. He’s going to be a middle-of-the-road (trying to get a few more hyphens in there) pitcher for the rest of the season, but well worth rostering despite his ludicrously unlucky start to the season. ALSO MY UNBROKEN STREAK OF TALKING ABOUT A NO-HITTER EVERY WEEK CONTINUES, WHO WILL IT BE NEXT WEEK? Let me know if the comments.

Dinelson LametPulled from his start with forearm tightness. Not going for another MRI. Guy hasn’t thrown his slider successfully since last September and the Padres are clinging to hope that he’s got that healing predator blood the Dusty Baker dosed the Astros with. Grey and I pleaded with you not to draft Lamet, and I really hope you followed our missives in protecting you from…misses. Let’s be super-real, which is like that VR experience you had at the mall in the 90s: Lamet isn’t worth it this year. If you went shopping for a TV and the seller said, “Yeah I know the screen’s cracked and it doesn’t show the color blue, but last year it was a top 10 TV for sharpness,” you’d say, “Thank you, Danny, but I can get a TV that shows me Emily in Paris just fine at the local truck stop.” And then you go to the truck stop and get distracted while pouring 18 different kinds of soda into the same cup. “It’s Sexy Dr. Pepper!” you say to the cashier, walking out with your frankensoda and a bobblehead of Danny Duffy. I’m giving Lamet a 90% likelihood of returning less value than a middle reliever this year, and a 5% shot that he cracks the top 30. The other 5%? I’m keeping that as my tip, thank and you.

Ryan WeathersTo absolutely nobody’s surprise, Dinelson Lamet’s time in the San Diego starting five lasted only a couple of innings. Dinny, I wish you well and I hope you enjoy the free coffee in Dr. Freeze’s office. The guy who’s been tapped at the back end of the rotation is [checks phone book] some guy named Ryan Weathers. Weathers is 21-years old and has never pitched above A-ball, meaning the last time he saw game action was in 2019. Still, he went out this week and threw 5.2 innings of one-hit, no-run ball against the Dodgers while K’ing 6. Wow, must be the first time through the order magic, right? Well, he pitched against the Dodgers on April 16 too, going 3 innings of one-hit, no-run ball. You know those clickbait articles where people ask if a good college team could defeat a weak Major League team? Well, a guy who has less experience than most college pitchers is dominating a team that has more payroll than most U.S. cities. I’d temper expectations on Weathers, because of his experience, and the eventual-to-happen arrival of MacKenzie Gore.

MacKenzie GoreHodgepadres to start the article! Thing is, Padres pitchers are supposed to be really good because A) Petco, B) they’re gonna win a lot, C) Victor Caratini, D) SLAM DIEGO. Aight, the time for Gore will probably be nigh after Adrian Morejon is slated for TJ and Dinelson Lamet is probably going to need some ice on his elbow. Ryan Weathers does not project to be the big-contract guy that Gore projects to be, so it makes sense that the Padres are using Weathers’ service time to keep Gore down in the “minors.” We saw a ton of rookies get injured/smashed last year when they were brought up too early (see Nate Pearson and Spencer Howard), so there’s no point in rushing Gore to MLB. That said, I added Gore in all my RCLs, which makes me seem like a horror movie maven. Also, I do watch a lot of horror movies.

Josh LindblomBrett Anderson hurt his knee on Friday and ended up on the IL, and Josh Lindblom came in relief, only to get lit up for 8 ER in 3 IP. Lindblom was on the outside looking in to the Brewers rotation, and when his chance came, he bombed it. Then the Brewers sent him to the IL with mysterious soreness. The soreness is called getting bombed. While writing the Friday recap, I noticed I don’t hate Drew Rasmussen — another Brewer bullpen guy who could start — although he hasn’t started since 2019. In any case, Rasmussen might be a flier for deep-deep leagues if Anderson misses time, because Lindblom might not be allowed back in the rotation. ACKSHUALLY, look below for who the Brew Crew brought in.

Phil BickfordBrewers always need a seasonal brew, right? I mean, so here’s the thing. Bickford hasn’t started a game since 2018, when he got converted to a reliever. I mean, are the Brewers going with Lindblom as SP5? I like Lindblom in theory, but in practice, he got crushed worse than the sweet wheat and barley that’s going into your IPA. Also he’s on the IL now. So, Bickford, Rasmussen, Lindblom…I suppose the Milwaukee equivalent of the Hodgepadre is the…Brew Crew. That’s dumb. RosterResource has no idea who’s starting either. Stay away from all of them for now.

Matthew BoydThe Boyd Bomber is sitting at the cusp of SP10 right now and that’s just demonstrating the randomness of early-season baseball. I know I told you to stack against him in DFS on Saturday, and then the guy went 8 innings for the win against the Royals. Geez Blair, you suck at DFS! Yes, in fact I do [says the guy who gave you SEA over BOS for an 80% gain on Saturday along with a no-no]. Boyd struck out 3 batters on Saturday in those 8 innings, meaning the other 24 batters he faced put the ball in play. The Royals got a mere 3 hits, good for a .125 BABIP. His xFIP was 5.19 in that game, and it’s 4.93 on the season. Boyd, who usually allows 2 HR/9, has a ridiculous 0.2 HR/9 right now. All this to say, he should just go to Vegas right now because his hand is hot and Lady Luck is walking with him. If you’ve got Boyd right now, you might want to trade him, because this hot start simply can’t last. Yes, he’s better than people make him out to be — probably in the top 40 even — but he’s not top 10 quality. He’s got 5.71 K/9 right now…that’s Antonio Senzatela territory. Treat him like $GME and sell high.

Alex WoodWood’s numbers look like Hyun-Jin Ryu right now, except Wood has a .111 BABIP and a 100% LOB%. He’s a nice waiver wire pickup, but he’s coming off seeing a spine specialist and being injured all last year. Definitely stream while he’s hot, but don’t expect to replace your SP1 with him.

Julio UriasWhere’s my detractor who came at me for ranking Urias low? I’m just the messenger, the baseball forecaster with an awkward smile who works the late-night shift on the weekends to make ends meet while training for an Ironman, which is that monster from the Black Sabbath song and not an exercise tournament. Urias dropped his slider and found his command, and so far he’s cut his walks per nine in half, which is good. Problem is, he’s got only three pitches now, and his fastball is negative value on the season. So, he’s got two plus pitches — a curveball and a change-up — which have led batters to guess easier on what’s coming. The result is a 10% barrel rate, which is stunning if you’re a batter and horrifying if you’re a pitcher. It’s not so bad to have a high barrel rate if the pitcher has a low launch angle — not much damage in hitting balls really hard into the ground, right? Urias’ launch angle is 13.8 degrees, which corresponds well to line drives. To put it in perspective, there are 11 other pitchers with higher launch angle/barrel rates than Urias: some are really good, like Jose Berrios and Max Scherzer; some are really yawnstipating, like Taylor Widener, Luke Weaver, and Joe Ross. So, in order for him to keep up his current success, he needs to keep up that low walk rate, which is half of his career norm right now. Urias will be a risk/reward darling this year: are you getting Scherzer-like value, or Luke Weaver-like value? Stay tuned to find out after the sports at 10:30!

Hyun-Jin Ryu: Left his start after 4 innings with an injury, and I’ve spent the whole afternoon crying. And now it’s not because I’m watching The Bodyguard.

Danny DuffySomebody call NASA because we’ve got an unauthorized rocket launch! Or do we call Elon Musk now? Or Space Force? What about Space Fort? I think that would be sweet: an IKEA in space called “Space Fort” where you make your own capsule and float around the earth, pirating MLB.TV signals because you’re in international aether. DaDu K’d 8 over 5 innings while walking none and giving up 4 hits on Sunday. I mean, I wish I didn’t have to wait until I was 39 to re-configure my career. Duffy’s a svelte 32-year-old and has reinvented himself so far, and all the peripherals are lining up to say that he’s for real. Remember: the Royals have one of the best hitting prospects and one of the best pitching prospects in the minors, and like 6 closers they can trade for help. The top of their order is Merrifield/Mondesi/Soler/Santana/Perez…like, if Duffy is for real in the Ja Rule way, he’s going to get enough Wins from his team to be a top 20 pitcher. He’s available in 35% of Yahoo leagues right now. Go! Go get him!

Kyle GibsonOff to a strong start, he’s another “late-bloomer” that people are taking victory laps on right now. OK, he added a cutter, whoop-de-doo. The cutter is noticeably slower than his fastball (4 MPH difference) and he’s nearly eliminated his changeup. The result is the same Gibson with a ridiculously lower number of walks and HR/9. Still, he’s K’ing only 7.5 per nine, which is basically saying he looks like prime Mike Leake. Leake was a sneaky pick back in the day because he basically Marco Gonzales’d his way into the top 40 year after year by just being OK and never being really bad. So, there’s value in Gibson, and he’s available in nearly 60% of Yahoo leagues. Go grab him and stream him, at least until opposing managers get enough video data to read him and start parking the ball at his career-norm rate of 1.3 HR/9+.

Robbie RayTold ya he was going to be a pain to own. After a wild previous start, Ray went out there on Saturday and K’d 9 while walking none over six innings. Know what he did? Same thing I did in Little League: he just threw his fastball. 75% fastballs on Saturday. Over and over and over again. Guy has a slider that has a career 21% swinging strike rate and the Blue Jays coaches are like, “Yeah, don’t throw that, just do that pitch that goes really fast.” I put Robbie Ray here because Donkey Teeth and B_Don are going to have Eno Sarris on the pod and I told them to pass on my message that Ray needs to pull a Corbin Burnes. Ray is currently a 3-pitch guy on the Blue Jays, and I think the coaches just want him to simplify stuff. That’s fine. The problem is his fastball has a career .416 slugging against, so, if he’s going to throw it 75% of the time from here on out, expect maybe better control, but also more [gulp] homers. Godspeed, Robbie Ray managers.

Jake OdorizziLeft his start after 5 pitches. Usually that means an IL stint, but the managers say it’s a muscle cramp. Bleh. Be wary. I dropped him in TGFBI for Chris Flexen.

Patrick CorbinWhew, Covid messed with him. It’s messed with all of us, but we saw how Eduardo Rodriguez didn’t even touch the field last year after his bout, and many other players missed time or performed poorly. Corbin is experiencing a double-whammy: both recovering from sickness, but also getting really unlucky. He made it 4 innings on Sunday, with a BABIP near .400, and his xFIP is still half his ERA. Batters are getting lucky and as he struggles with “stuff,” they’re taking advantage of him. Corbin has a contract and track record that will keep him in the rotation, but fantasy managers might want to wait until warmer weather to regularly start him again.

FAAB God, Millionaire

These are the players who are low-owned in the NFBC, meaning they’ll be low-owned in normal leagues too.

  • Chris Flexen: After teaching English in Korea, he’s been translating well to the US.
  • Taylor Widener: Narrower minds have been avoiding Widener.
  • Alex Wood: Injury risk, top 60 SP upside.
  • Kohei Arihara: top 60 SP upside, SP120 downside.
  • Austin Gomber: Rockies caveat. Everybody wants to see Marquez traded. Don’t y’all wonder about Antonio Senzatela if he gets to play in Petco 50% of the time?

Space:X Rankings

Usual stuff: I rank in tiers, don’t worry about the location within the tiers, but the guys higher in the tier have a degree of confidence over those lower in the tier. I added some markers to see “where” you are in the rankings to help give a bit more order to the chaos. Please don’t misconstrue these guideposts for numerical rankings, though.

  • S-Tier: Players have the qualities of pitchers most likely to finish in the Top 10.
  • A-Tier: Players have the qualities of pitchers most likely to finish SP5-40.
  • B-Tier: Players have the qualities of pitchers most likely to finish SP10-60.
  • C-Tier: Streamers and deep league pitchers
  • D-Tier: Contrarian matchup plays and injured pitchers.

Notable Movers: 

  • Danny Duffy: See blurb above.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu: IL stint forthcoming?
  • Alex Wood: Staying healthy.
  • Kyle Gibson: Blah stuff but high IP are crucial to fantasy success.
  • Yusei Kikuchi: Wasn’t going to be a top 20 guy but he’s normalizing towards his natural home in tier 3.
  • Madison Bumgarner: Wasn’t going to be a SP120 guy but he’s normalizing towards his natural home in tier 3. I actually typed all that out, no copy pasta!
  • Michael Kopech: Debut in tier 4.
  • Spencer Turnbull: See above but erase the name and replace it with the one to the left.

 

# Name IP K-BB% SIERA CSW%
S-Tier
1 Corbin Burnes 24.1 47.10% 1.13 38.30%
Jacob deGrom 29 46.50% 1.22 37.10%
Gerrit Cole 31.2 39.50% 1.76 33.40%
Joe Musgrove 26 36.60% 1.85 38.10%
Trevor Bauer 32 32.80% 2.37 34.00%
Tyler Glasnow 30.2 31.90% 2.42 34.50%
Max Scherzer 25 31.50% 2.82 31.30%
Shane Bieber 36.1 30.30% 2.59 36.50%
Jose Berrios 21 29.10% 2.71 29.50%
Yu Darvish 31.2 23.80% 3.24 32.70%
Lucas Giolito 18.2 23.50% 3.21 31.40%
Brandon Woodruff 23 23.00% 3.18 30.40%
Aaron Nola 31.2 21.70% 3.33 30.80%
A-Tier
16 Lance Lynn 19.2 32.50% 2.34 28.10%
Andrew Heaney 20.2 27.80% 2.76 31.50%
Dustin May 15.1 27.70% 2.46 32.30%
Tyler Mahle 20.2 27.50% 2.91 33.40%
Freddy Peralta 20 27.50% 2.98 33.50%
Huascar Ynoa 21 26.30% 2.88 33.60%
Eduardo Rodriguez 16 25.80% 2.95 29.00%
Trevor Rogers 22 24.10% 3.27 34.20%
Julio Urias 25.2 22.00% 3.39 31.80%
Carlos Rodon 19 21.60% 3.5 32.30%
Clayton Kershaw 31.2 21.60% 3.37 31.60%
Charlie Morton 23 21.30% 3.34 34.50%
Walker Buehler 25 21.10% 3.55 28.60%
Dylan Bundy 24 20.80% 3.48 33.20%
30 Michael Pineda 22.1 20.50% 3.54 32.00%
Hyun-Jin Ryu 24 19.80% 3.45 31.10%
Zac Gallen 9.2 18.60% 3.86 30.60%
Kevin Gausman 33.2 18.50% 3.74 31.10%
Steven Matz 23.1 18.50% 3.68 32.00%
Zack Wheeler 23.2 18.20% 3.76 26.20%
Danny Duffy 18 17.80% 3.92 28.00%
Sandy Alcantara 29.2 17.40% 3.79 29.90%
Zach Eflin 26 17.20% 4 27.40%
Jack Flaherty 21.1 14.40% 4.23 26.10%
Zack Greinke 32.2 14.10% 4.27 28.30%
B-Tier
42 Cristian Javier 13.2 30.90% 2.55 29.30%
Alex Wood 12 25.00% 2.4 32.30%
Alex Cobb 14.1 23.50% 2.88 30.00%
Jameson Taillon 13.1 22.80% 3.42 29.00%
Brady Singer 21.1 21.60% 3.19 33.00%
Pablo Lopez 27.2 21.40% 3.26 28.00%
Adbert Alzolay 15 21.10% 3.45 32.90%
Blake Snell 20.2 20.20% 3.59 30.80%
JT Brubaker 22.1 19.80% 3.2 28.90%
John Means 23.2 18.70% 3.78 30.20%
Nathan Eovaldi 28.2 18.50% 3.37 31.20%
Jordan Montgomery 21.2 18.20% 3.72 30.00%
Griffin Canning 12.2 17.50% 3.87 28.20%
Tyler Anderson 20.2 17.20% 3.87 30.40%
Jordan Lyles 21.1 17.20% 4.25 25.90%
Anthony DeSclafani 21 16.90% 3.6 25.70%
Michael Wacha 16.2 16.70% 4.02 27.80%
Chris Flexen 23 16.50% 3.72 22.20%
60 Mike Foltynewicz 22 16.50% 4.04 23.50%
Mike Minor 21.1 15.60% 4.09 27.20%
Luke Weaver 21.2 15.40% 4.16 26.90%
Jakob Junis 15 15.00% 4.16 26.60%
Zach Plesac 18.2 15.00% 3.88 25.90%
Jose Urquidy 21 14.60% 4.49 25.00%
Max Fried 11 14.10% 4.07 30.10%
Kenta Maeda 17.2 13.60% 4.31 27.30%
Kyle Gibson 27.1 13.50% 3.94 29.30%
Aaron Civale 26 13.40% 4.28 23.30%
Chris Bassitt 28.1 13.00% 4.27 27.50%
Matthew Boyd 34.2 12.10% 4.68 29.70%
Madison Bumgarner 18.2 12.10% 4.6 28.80%
Luis Castillo 19.1 11.10% 4.33 29.00%
Yusei Kikuchi 23.2 10.90% 4.51 29.60%
Marcus Stroman 24.1 10.60% 3.8 23.40%
C-Tier
77 Michael Kopech 3 27.30% 2.51 26.80%
David Peterson 13.1 24.10% 2.99 33.60%
Drew Smyly 11 23.30% 3.39 29.20%
Spencer Turnbull 5 21.10% 3.59 27.40%
Adam Wainwright 19.2 20.00% 3.42 31.30%
Johnny Cueto 20 18.90% 3.69 26.80%
Dane Dunning 17.2 18.70% 3.5 29.50%
Triston McKenzie 9 18.40% 4.22 27.60%
Sean Manaea 23.2 17.50% 3.84 28.50%
Frankie Montas 18.2 17.40% 3.87 25.70%
Sonny Gray 8 17.10% 4.02 30.60%
Trevor Cahill 19 16.90% 3.62 29.40%
Vince Velasquez 4 16.70% 3.8 25.40%
Jesus Luzardo 18.1 15.70% 4.12 30.60%
Nick Margevicius 7 15.20% 4.26 22.90%
Cole Irvin 21 15.10% 4.1 23.30%
Matt Harvey 19.1 14.80% 3.94 23.20%
Erick Fedde 16.1 13.50% 4.26 22.40%
Kohei Arihara 20.1 13.20% 4.25 25.60%
Taijuan Walker 14 13.10% 4.64 30.60%
Taylor Widener 22.1 12.90% 4.52 28.00%
Wade Miley 22 12.80% 3.9 25.50%
Ian Anderson 22 12.80% 4.16 28.50%
100 Trevor Williams 19.1 12.60% 4.17 28.70%
Aaron Sanchez 19.2 12.50% 3.86 25.60%
Rich Hill 16.1 12.50% 4.32 30.50%
Chris Paddack 18 12.30% 4.23 29.00%
Ryan Yarbrough 16.2 12.00% 4.45 27.50%
Logan Webb 14.1 11.80% 4.14 30.80%
Lance McCullers Jr. 13.2 11.70% 4.44 33.00%
Kyle Hendricks 19 11.60% 4.55 25.80%
Marco Gonzales 22.1 11.50% 4.56 25.10%
Jon Gray 22.1 11.00% 4.55 27.70%
Jake Arrieta 22 10.80% 4.78 29.00%
Matt Shoemaker 14.1 10.80% 4.66 26.00%
Jeff Hoffman 20.1 10.70% 4.61 26.00%
German Marquez 28.2 9.80% 4.48 28.10%
Bruce Zimmermann 21.2 8.90% 4.84 26.40%
Carlos Martinez 21 8.80% 4.68 26.80%
Robbie Ray 16 8.70% 4.94 27.80%
Merrill Kelly 21 8.40% 4.94 24.20%
Michael Fulmer 9 8.30% 4.01 29.00%
Josh Fleming 10.1 7.70% 3.94 30.20%
Casey Mize 20.2 7.70% 4.58 25.60%
Logan Allen 14.1 7.70% 4.76 25.60%
Shohei Ohtani 8.2 7.30% 5.91 30.20%
Patrick Corbin 12.1 6.60% 5.23 26.90%
John Gant 20 5.70% 5.23 27.20%
Austin Gomber 21.1 5.70% 5.44 27.50%
Tarik Skubal 13.1 4.90% 6.18 23.60%
Nick Pivetta 20.2 4.70% 5.6 23.50%
Corey Kluber 15 4.10% 5.55 27.30%
Adrian Houser 19 3.80% 4.65 19.10%
Brad Keller 12 0.00% 5.61 22.00%
D-Tier
132 Elieser Hernandez 2.1 33.30% 2.13 29.40%
Kwang-hyun Kim 8.2 28.90% 2.69 30.70%
Jose De Leon 9.1 28.90% 2.8 35.90%
Tanner Houck 9.1 22.00% 3.03 30.10%
Jake Odorizzi 8 21.60% 3.73 25.30%
Ross Stripling 8.1 17.10% 4.01 26.50%
Dean Kremer 10.2 16.00% 4.01 28.40%
Domingo German 13 15.90% 4.06 28.30%
Kyle Wright 4.1 13.60% 4.28 30.80%
Joe Ross 21.1 12.50% 4.35 30.70%
Justus Sheffield 16.2 12.50% 4.27 28.10%
Mitch Keller 16.1 11.70% 4.54 27.80%
Paolo Espino 4.1 11.10% 5.12 20.00%
Jose Quintana 10 11.10% 5 29.30%
Chase Anderson 13 10.70% 4.59 29.90%
Dylan Cease 17.1 10.10% 4.85 24.80%
Ervin Santana 3 9.10% 6.43 30.60%
Stephen Strasburg 10 8.70% 5.18 29.50%
Jose Urena 21.2 7.50% 4.71 23.90%
Martin Perez 17.1 7.20% 5.07 27.10%
Lewis Thorpe 4 6.70% 4.49 35.00%
J.A. Happ 16 6.60% 5.27 19.60%
Antonio Senzatela 25 6.20% 4.69 23.50%
Brett Anderson 17.1 5.50% 4.54 21.60%
Matt Moore 11 5.10% 5.49 21.80%
Dallas Keuchel 25 4.70% 4.7 25.60%
Justin Dunn 14.2 4.60% 5.59 25.30%
Riley Smith 6 4.00% 5.36 20.70%
Luis Garcia 9 2.60% 5.85 25.70%
Julio Teheran 5 0.00% 6.15 22.20%
Chi Chi Gonzalez 10 0.00% 5.83 22.70%
Bryse Wilson 5 0.00% 5.66 31.90%
Alec Mills 4 0.00% 3.82 17.10%
T.J. Zeuch 8 0.00% 6.32 21.60%
Garrett Richards 16.2 -1.20% 6.2 22.70%
Zach Davies 15.1 -1.30% 6.15 23.20%
Chad Kuhl 15.2 -2.60% 6.67 26.50%
Daniel Castano 10 -5.00% 6.09 18.60%
171 Nick Neidert 12 -5.30% 7.18 19.90%

Aye, you made it this far, didn’t ya. EverywhereBlair is, well, located at home right now. He’s a historian and lover of prog-metal. He enjoys a good sipping rum. When he’s not churning data and making fan fiction about Grey and Donkey Teeth, you can find him dreaming of shirtless pictures of Lance Lynn on Twitter @Everywhereblair.