For these pitcher pairings, I’m going to be using our 2015 fantasy baseball rankings. Notably, the top 20 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball, top 40 starters for 2015, top 60 starters for 2015 and the top 80 starters for 2015. You can also just go to our Fantasy Baseball War Room. Okay, formalities out of the way. *rolls up sleeves, makes farting noise with hand under armpit, rolls down sleeve* Let’s get busy! Now, what is a pitcher pairing? It’s your plan for putting together a fantasy staff. A course of action. If you have A pitcher, which B, C, D, E and F pitcher goes with him? Which is different than ‘F this pitcher,’ that’s what you say in May. You should have six starters. The sixth starter is Tony Cingrani or take whoever you want. I suggest an upside pick. Cingrani comes to mind. Or Jesse Hahn. Taijuan also comes to mind. I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 and some variation of 9 pitcher leagues like the Razzball Commenter Leagues. Speaking of which, the RCL league sign-ups begin on Monday (if ESPN opens its doors). (NOTE: What you are about to read is massively confusing. If it were found scribbled in a notebook, the FBI would be watching me. If Charles Manson stood up and read this at the next prison Meet N’ Greet, no one would blink an eye.) Anyway, here’s pitcher pairings for pitching staffs for 2015 fantasy baseball drafts:Please, blog, may I have some more?
This is part of a four-part series using Rudy and Grey’s Razzball Commenter League experience as well as some modeling (the dorky kind) to quantify the effectiveness of streaming and how it should inform one’s draft strategy in shallow mixed leagues (10-12 teams). The first three posts will focus on quantifying the value of streaming starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and hitters. The fourth will synthesize the learnings from the three and how they impact draft strategy. The streaming decisions made by Grey and I were HIGHLY influenced by our free, daily updated tools for streaming starting pitchers (Stream-o-nator) and hitters (Hitter-tron).
If you are reading this article (or this site for that matter), I assume you are familiar with streaming starting pitchers. This is an essential strategy in all daily league formats whether one plays standard Roto or H2H. While my beloved Stream-o-nator aims to make sure all our readers make the most informed decisions on which pitchers to stream over the next 7 days (and possibly more in 2014), I have yet to read any analysis that quantifies the value of the average streaming pitcher to inform draft strategy. So this post is going to focus on quantifying the value of a streaming SP and, once I’ve completed quantifying the value of streaming relievers and hitters, I will figure out how this impacts draft strategy.Please, blog, may I have some more?
In recent posts, I used the results of our 2013 Razzball Commenter Leagues (based on 64 12-team mixed leagues with daily roster changes and unlimited pickups) to show:
- The end of season value of a team’s hitters explains about 70% of a team’s final season Hitting Standings Points
- The PROJECTED value of a team’s hitters before the draft explains on average only 15% of a team’s final season Hitting Standings Points (with a range in 2013 from 2% to 37%)
- Thus, about 55% of a team’s hitting success is driven by deviations from what was projected and what actually happened (drafter prescience may be part of this but it is likely driven by good/bad luck in hitter performance and health)
So this leaves 30% of Hitting Standings Points that could be attributed to a manager’s in-season moves.
Inspired by one of our commenters (initials SF), I thought of a way to reduce the size of that 30% black box. While estimating the quality of a manager’s in-season moves is very complicated, estimate the quantity of a manager’s moves is EZPZ. That would be interesting…..but what kind of guidance would that provide? Making roster moves just for the sake of it is a waste of time and if you, our loyal readers, are going to waste your time, we prefer you do it on our site vs. your league site.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Rudy’s been dropping a bunch of fantasy baseball strategy posts lately. Here’s one on how to split up your hitting and pitching. And here’s one looking at the consequences of showing up to your draft ten minutes late. As for my strategy posts, they’re timeless — so I recycle ’em. For most of you, been here, read this shizz already, but there’s Razzball newbies (Razzbabies?) that need some coddling occasionally. If you know PEDS, skip ahead into the comments and discuss innovative uses for my mustache. I’ll start, “If you get really close to me, you can use my mustache as an umbrella.” For the Razzbabies, come here and let Uncle Grey burp you. Maybe I can get you to spit up everything you learned at ESPN. Fantasy baseball strategies are as old as the earth, if the earth were ten or so years old. There’s a LIMA Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) by Ron Shandler. There’s been a ZIMA Plan by Matthew Berry; it involves a lot of stumbling around, groping and the hiccups. There’s been a Punt One Category draft strategy. There’s been a Punt Two Categories draft strategy, which was conceived by a leaguemate of Punt One Category who just couldn’t stand being upstaged. And there’s the Forget When Your Draft Is So Your Team Is Autodrafted strategy. I love when my leaguemates use that one. Then there’s my fantasy baseball snake draft strategy, Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS. (You might even want to use this strategy for our Razzball leagues. Join now. Thank you.)
PEDS has five basic steps. If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games, but PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Actually, this plan is foolproof and you should ignore the previous sentence that said no plan is foolproof. No sentence is foolproof, that’s more accurate. Okay, onto the steps:Please, blog, may I have some more?
For these pitcher pairings, I’m going to be using our 2014 fantasy baseball rankings. Notably, the top 20 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball, top 40 starters for 2014, top 60 starters for 2014 and the top 80 starters for 2014. You can also just go to our Fantasy Baseball War Room once it’s ready, which should be by Tuesday. Or the fantasy baseball tiers. Okay, now that we have our links and shizz done. What is a pitcher pairing? It’s how you plan on putting together a fantasy staff. It’s a plan of action. If you have A pitcher, which B, C, D, E and F pitcher goes with him? Which is different than ‘F this pitcher,’ that’s what you say in May. You should have six starters. The sixth starter is Wily Peralta or take whoever you want. I suggest an upside pick. Jeff Samardzija comes to mind. Or Brandon Beachy. Zack Wheeler also comes to mind. I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 and some variation of 9 pitcher leagues like the Razzball Commenter Leagues. Speaking of which, the RCL league sign-ups begin on Monday. (NOTE: What you are about to read is massively confusing. If it were found scribbled in a notebook, the FBI would be watching me. If Charles Manson stood up and read this at the next prison Meet N’ Greet, no one would blink an eye.) Anyway, here’s some pairings for pitching staffs for 2014 fantasy baseball drafts:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Did a little fishing. Here’s what I hooked. Arrayed all 576 RCL teams from last year, sorted by each pitching category, assigned a rank, 1 to 576 (just like your RCL league, 1 to 12) then totaled the ranks for the five cats. The result was a ranking from top to bottom for the best pitching managers.
The #1 ranked manager produced (followed by the average for each cat):Please, blog, may I have some more?
Just to clear my head the other day, I threw on some bicycle shorts, jumped in my El Dorado and went for a spin. Cause that’s how guys with a ‘stache roll. If you didn’t know, now you do. Consider yourself informed. As I was rocking out to some Don Henley, I was thinking back […]Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’m going to talk about seemingly the most derisive topic since we had to choose a side on ‘great taste’ or ‘less filling’ for Miller Lite. I’m gonna speak about average, or ‘how many hits a player gets divided by their true at-bats which excludes their walks, sac flies, sac bunts, and HBP’ for all […]Please, blog, may I have some more?
First off, you can thank Keanu Reeves for the idea of this post. I somehow watched the entirety of Little Buddha a long time ago and one line truly comes back to me from that movie over and over again when I begin ranking players for myself or trying to find value in drafts or […]Please, blog, may I have some more?
Sure, you can draft Paul Konerko, A-Rod and C.J. Wilson with your 4th through 6th picks in your fantasy baseball draft. Nothing wrong with that. Don’t furrow your brow. There’s no reason to, concerned Razzball reader. We’re friends, you don’t have to hide the last of the milk because you don’t want me to finish […]Please, blog, may I have some more?