We got starters for days, literally and Urbandictionaryly. The other day I went over our top 20 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball, then I went over my top 40 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball. Today, the title of the post might’ve gave it away, but for those that skipped it, this is the top 60 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball. You could probably get away with waiting until this post to draft your first starter. To put that in perspective, Medlen is ranked 134 in the top 400 (that I’ll post in a few days). So, in a 12 team league, you could have 11 picks prior to your first starter. That’s, oh, I don’t know, five outfielders, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, corner infidel and middle infidel. I’m not saying to do that, but it’s possible. Basically, you can have your whole offense and still put together a pitching staff. If you don’t believe me, you insult Al Gore who invented the internet as a portal for fantasy baseball advice. All the 2014 fantasy baseball rankings are there. As always, I point out where tiers start and stop and my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball:
41. Chris Tillman – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Kuroda. I called this tier, “Taking a number three doesn’t mean a pee and poop combo.” A(nother) general word about this tier. Ryu, Kuroda, Medlen and Griffin are all going to give their value. They’re safe. Cashner, Porcello, Josh Johnson, Corbin, Archer and Tillman may not give their value, but they also may give a lot more. Tillman could breakout from this tier with just a small step up on his K-rate and a small reduction in walk rate. He needs to lose the half walk rate gain from this year and bump his K-rate up to his minor league level from five years ago. Before you scoff at ‘ five years ago,’ you scoffer, he’s still only going to be 26 years old this year. He took a major step back in ERA from 2012 (2.93) to 2013 (3.71). His walk rate went up 2.51 to 2.97. He gave up too many homers. His fastball velocity fell. From 2012 to 2013, Tillman’s K-rate went from 6.91 to 7.81. It doesn’t look like it will be an outlier either. Tillman has a 92 MPH-ish fastball and regularly notched a 9+ K-rate in the minor leagues, so there’s a chance for an uptick in value, but giving up homers in the AL East isn’t a great way to get there. We’re ready for this guy to take the next step, and by ‘we’ I mean me, so turn your W upside down, which is Sesame Street for clever. Today’s letter is I, as in I have an itch and I’m in public so I need to duck behind this mailbox for un momento. There, that’s better. I’m just not sure that Tillman’s step forward will be much more than a 3.60-ish ERA with solid if unspectacular Ks. It could though. 2014 Projection: 12-11/3.69/1.25/188
42. Chris Archer – How have I not written a sleeper post yet on Chris Archer? That’s a crime against humanity like when a Starbucks barista spells your name wrong. It’s with an E! Enola Grey Lincoln Albright, the Third from the House of ‘Perts! My ‘pertise tells me Archer is going to be some kind of wonderful with a short haircut like Mary Stuart Masterson. Put on overalls, Chris Archer, and get your butchy thing on! Last year, he had a 7 K-rate and 2.66 BB/9, which is why he’s Medlen’ing in this tier. All through his minor league career he’s been much better though and I like the idea of him breaking out. Though, I think it might be a half season thing. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him become all that and a bag of olestra-laden chips until July or August. He’s still finding his groove. And if you didn’t know, now you do, beep. Sorry, that was a radio edit. If this were Rap Genius dot com, there would be a footnote telling you I’m referencing Biggie Smalls because I like Archer nearby in Bed-Stuy. 2014 Projections: 13-10/3.54/1.22/152
43. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Yes, there are so many pitchers. You seriously should find a different hobby if you can’t find six starters you can draft. Ryu was a bit of an unknown going into last year. I mean, I knew him, hence the reason why I ranked him when so many sites didn’t. *cough* ESPN *cough* BTW, Rugrat from The Wolf of Wall Street? Doppelganger of Eric Karabell. We don’t know a whole lot more about Ryu after last year. The sample size is too small — that’s what she said! He appears to be a 7-ish, 2-ish BB/9 pitcher that won’t ever be an ace due to his stuff, but won’t ever be too terrible. He’s basically the Asian Medlen — or Medren. 2014 Projections: 13-9/3.52/1.22/147
44. Hiroki Kuroda – Another name for this tier — workhorse. Kuroda hides in the shadow of CC, but so does three of five boroughs. Kuroda just misses on the K-rate for this tier, rocking a just-below seven, but he remedies that with a sub-2 walk rate. He is in danger of falling into the 4’s on ERA if he just loses an inch off his K-rate and gets a tad unlucky with homers, which isn’t difficult in The House They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built. 2014 Projections: 13-12/3.57/1.18/142
45. CC Sabathia – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Peavy. I call this tier, “Thang ain’t got no I and these pitchers are nothing to me.” I’m not drafting any of these guys and tried to bury them in the rankings. If perchance someone else has ranked them even lower and they’re still around this late, then draft another hitter and wait another round to draft a starter. Here’s you, “Grey, in your infinite wisdom and handsomeness, what happens if these pitchers are around really, really, really late?” Draft another hitter or closer or anything else for another round, and really that’s how you modify? As for CC, hey, we all fall apart at some point. Whether it’s your hairline or CC’s arm. 2014 Projections: 14-12/3.78/1.29/165
46. Johnny Cueto – I like Cueto less than most ‘perts, but most ‘perts stare at my mustache like it’s the Mona Lisa and it follows them everywhere they move around a room without me turning my head. Cueto should be healthy in 2014 and is only 28 years old, which makes him the odd duck in this tier — he’s no aging hippie like you’d find in Topanga. His xFIP never matching up with his sub-3 ERA bothers me enough where I’ll let someone else take the gamble on him. Last year, it worked out for me avoiding him. In past years, not so much. 2014 Projections: 13-9/3.37/1.19/134
47. Tim Lincecum – Could’ve also called this tier, “One-time number ones, now they might do a number two.” Lincecum is trying to figure out how to pitch with less stuff. Last year he went to the change more and the curve less and stopped relying on his league-average fastball. It helped him reduce his walks, but his Ks went with them too. At some point, he’ll figure out how to pitch effectively. Hopefully, before he’s pitching like Bozo Arroyo and is able to take a bong hit between releasing his fastball and it hitting the catcher’s mitt. 2014 Projections: 11-13/3.71/1.29/186
48. R.A. Dickey – Dickey will probably pitch for a long time, so it doesn’t bother me he’ll be 40 this year. He could even have a low-3 ERA this year. Or he could have a high-4 ERA. That’s the problem. He’s as unpredictable as casting Lohan in a film. To read more on him, check out Jay Wrong’s R.A. Dickey fantasy. 2014 Projections: 15-13/3.97/1.22/182
49. Lance Lynn – Lynn’s an odd bird. He gets Ks, which I like. He doesn’t kill you with walks, which is nice. He even lucks into wins, which you can’t account for. I want to own him…For some starts. By and large or whatever cliche you got, he’s decent, but, guys and four lady readers, he is a flippin’ mess for a few months here and there. He’ll only be 27 years old in 2013, and I could see him being the one guy to break out of this tier and give solid value, but the headache of three months straight where he gives a 5-ish ERA isn’t worth the payoff. 2014 Projections: 12-8/3.88/1.30/178
50. C.J. Wilson – Last year, I didn’t love Wilson, and I don’t this year either. It’s not entirely because of his stupid Head & Shoulders commercials that played on a non-stop loop for 6 months straight last year and has me subconsciously scratching my scalp. He’s had issues with walks in the past and, at age 33, I don’t think that’s going to suddenly disappear like his head eczema. Without a 9 K-rate, he can’t absorb a 4+ walk rate. 2014 Projections: 13-11/3.93/1.35/172
51. Jake Peavy – I saw some ‘pert rank him about 20 spots higher, so that’s the only reason why I felt it was safe to rank him here. He’s getting by on good vibes and bad farts. He can’t stay healthy, his K-rate is just barely above whatever and falling and I don’t like his home park. In conclusion, belch, fart, burp, which is appropriate since he looks winded. 2014 Projections: 13-9/3.98/1.21/149
52. Zack Wheeler – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Delgado. I call this tier, “Thisclose.” The tier name means I was thisclose to ranking these guys in the top 40 starters tier with Gerrit Cole and company, or Cole and Co. if they were selling comfortable shoes. There’s real chance for upside here. After Wheeler had a 5.06 ERA in his first month in the majors, his ERA for his final 84 innings over three months was 3.11. That alone almost had me moving Wheeler up and I could see reaching for him if your staff is already solid with safe guys and you want some upside. Unfortch, his K-rate, xFIP and walk rate wasn’t good in two of those three months. August was the one month when he looked like he figured out this thing we call the major leagues. At some point (probably by the 2nd half of this year), he’s going to be completely lights out and show his ace ability. It’ll come down to when he stops making stupid boners and gets over his growing pains. 2014 Projections: 9-11/3.87/1.32/172
53. Clay Buchholz – Somewhere along the way I began to like Buchholz last year. Since I’m from Jersey, it was probably around the time when he began to lather his arms in suntan lotion like he was headed to the tanning salon. Did you know Coppertone International Suntanning Products, Inc’s stock shot up 3/8ths of a point every time Buchholz pitched? This is true. Also true, Buchholz’s reduced his bugaboo xFIP by nearly a run this year and finally got it down to a very decent 3.41. He also pushed his K-rate up to 7.98 after it dangled around 6.50 for the last three years. He achieved this by controlling his cutter better and more frequently. He’s shown the ability to strikeout hitters at a 8+ K-rate before but it was coupled with no control (4.86 BB/9). For Buchholz to vault to ace status, he just needs to gain a half K per nine and hold his reduced walk rate. I think it’s all doable. My biggest concern is he’s still yet to throw 190 innings in a year and he’s going to be 30. I think we’re going to see a solid fantasy #2 for only two-thirds of a year. 2014 Projections: 13-4/3.34/1.22/117
54. A.J. Burnett – It’s ironic he hasn’t signed with a team yet since he’s all about the ink. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have a job by March. If he does hang ’em up by March, I could see him doing a stunod move and returning midseason. There’s a bit of risk because of that, but I’d draft him assuming he’ll be on the O’s, Yanks or Pirates by Opening Day. 2014 Projections: 13-9/3.78/1.26/184
55. Corey Kluber – Another fact for a lot of the pitchers in this tier is I tried to squeeze them in much higher in the rankings, but there was always an issue that had me ranking them here. Kluber had no problems with his peripherals. He regularly threw 93+ MPH. His xFIP was 3.10. His walk rate was just above 2 and his K-rate was over 8. That’s a guy you want on your pitching staff. The only thing stopping him is he’s never come close to doing this before. I mean, even in Triple-A he was kinda soul-suckingly bad. Maybe something clicked last year that made him trust his stuff and he just started jamming the strike zone with his fastball. He will only be 28 years old this year and if his finger injury is behind him (assuming he’s not just being coy and holding an injured finger behind his back), he could be a breakout guy. To read more, here’s Sky’s Corey Kluber fantasy. 2014 Projections: 10-11/3.78/1.28/155
56. Ubaldo Jimenez – Love, love, love Ubaldo’s K-rate shooting up to 9.56 last year. That was the best of his career. He figured out how to pitch with a 91+ MPH fastball instead of his Colorado-aided 96+ MPH flash. He threw sliders 25% of the time, realizing the only one in the AL Central that can get to sliders is Billy Butler and those sliders aren’t even pitches. His walk rate is just too ugly for me to trust him completely. Ubaldo’s only a hair better than Edinson Volquez — pun point! Last year his 3.94 BB/9 was the 4th worst in the league. If he loses just a half K with his newfound slide piece, he’s going to be a 4.50-ish pitcher and junky as all get out. This is all assuming he signs with anyone but the Padres or Rockies before the season starts. Also, five over-the-internet dollars says if he signs with the Angels, he’ll be in Propecia commercials. 2014 Projections: 12-12/3.89/1.35/189
57. Taijuan Walker – Already went over my Taijuan Walker fantasy. I wrote it trying to eat a Charleston Chew without losing a tooth. 2014 Projections: 7-9/3.88/1.37/162 in 170 innings
58. Drew Smyly – He has ace stuff…according to his relief numbers. Damn you, qualifier! “Hello, is qualifier there? It’s Grey Albright calling. Yeah, I can leave a message. Could you just tell qualifier to go screw itself? Thanks!” The Drew Smyly Show might be a thing of beauty this year, if he can do what he did in relief last year in the rotation. I can’t for the life of me think why he would do the same in the rotation. Also, for the life of me I can’t think what made us think that we were wise and we’d never compromise. Great, now that stupid Verve Pipe song is stuck in my head. It’s a solid upside gamble, but I’d expect closer to a 8-ish K-rate and a 3-ish BB/9 over about 110 innings. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him bounce back to the bullpen at some point. 2014 Projections: 7-4/3.34/1.16/96 in 110 IP
59. Randall Delgado – Damn, I really wanted to sneak Delgado into the Cole tier in the top 40 starters post. If I could get as excited about a walk rate as I can about a strikeout rate, he would’ve made it. If I could get the words “this” and “close” even closer, I would’ve for Delgado, but I don’t feel like futzing with fonts and shizz. Last year, his walk rate was 1.78. I really have no idea where that came from. I’m totally guessing when I say I think he learned how to control his changeup and ended up throwing it a ton. Prior to last year, his walk rates were in the mid-4’s. Losing three walks per nine is unheard of, except for guys coming back from Tommy John, the surgery, not Tommy John’s Rib Shack. And even when returning from surgery, it usually is a case of momentarily wildness. Delgado was never a control artist. The control is actually working against his strikeouts. You need to throw some balls outside the strike zone that a hitter thinks are inside to get Ks. Regularly, Delgado had a 8+ K-rate in the minors. If he can do that with his miniscule walk rate, he could be in line for a huge year. 2014 Projections: 11-12/3.88/1.16/149
60. Martin Perez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 80 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Come here, Dumpling Face.” This tier is pretty self-explanatory. Kidding. It’s basically a bunch of guys that are either Ghosts of Sleepers Past or just guys that I generally like. As recently as last year, all of these guys had neon signs above their heads flashing, “Draft me” or “Grab me off waivers” or “Just give me a little taste of love, you big lug.” The glow is off them a bit, but they could still breakout. Once again, I’ll say it: there are so many decent pitchers. Perez is similar to Delgado, just to a slightly lesser extent. He dropped his walk rate a ton last year, but also his K-rate. Being in the AL and Arlington is working against him. Working for him is his age (23 in April) and potential. 2014 Projections: 12-8/3.78/1.29/111
