For these pitcher pairings, I’m going to be using our 2014 fantasy baseball rankings.  Notably, the top 20 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball, top 40 starters for 2014, top 60 starters for 2014 and the top 80 starters for 2014.  You can also just go to our Fantasy Baseball War Room once it’s ready, which should be by Tuesday.  Or the fantasy baseball tiers.  Okay, now that we have our links and shizz done.  What is a pitcher pairing?  It’s how you plan on putting together a fantasy staff.  It’s a plan of action.  If you have A pitcher, which B, C, D, E and F pitcher goes with him?  Which is different than ‘F this pitcher,’ that’s what you say in May.  You should have six starters.  The sixth starter is Wily Peralta or take whoever you want.  I suggest an upside pick.  Jeff Samardzija comes to mind.  Or Brandon BeachyZack Wheeler also comes to mind.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 and some variation of 9 pitcher leagues like the Razzball Commenter Leagues.  Speaking of which, the RCL league sign-ups begin on Monday.  (NOTE:  What you are about to read is massively confusing.  If it were found scribbled in a notebook, the FBI would be watching me.  If Charles Manson stood up and read this at the next prison Meet N’ Greet, no one would blink an eye.)  Anyway, here’s some pairings for pitching staffs for 2014 fantasy baseball drafts:

TIERS

If your first pitcher is from the tiers: “They’re great, I won’t own them, let’s Patty Cake while others are drafting them.” or “Semantics.” — These tiers are from Kershaw to Verlander.  If you draft someone from these tiers, you’ll probably lose your league or get lucky with your hitters.  If I do draft one, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until Chaz Bono‘s tier.  Then grab a guy in Who’s going to be 2014’s Matt Harvey?‘s tier.  Then two guys from Taking a number three doesn’t mean a pee and poop combo‘s tier, and finally one guy from either Thisclose‘s tier or Come here, Dumpling Face.  Though, if you draft someone in Kershaw or Cliff Lee’s tiers, I could also see bypassing the Chaz Bono’s tier and skipping right to the Matt Harvey tier that Matt Harvey isn’t in. Then you’d take two guys from Matt Harvey’s tier that Matt Harvey isn’t in, then grab two guys from the pee and poop combo tier and finally Thisclose or Dumpling Face’s tier.  So, you either have something like F-Her, Fister, Sonny Gray, Porcello, Ryu and Wheeler or F-Her, Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, Porcello, Medlen and Samardzija.  Either of those staffs will probably have 13’s in every pitching category in a 12 team league.

If your first pitcher is from the tier, “I could see drafting one of these guys if they’re there (stutterer!).”: – This tier goes from Jo-Fer to Teheran.  I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come between Jo-Fer and Teheran with anyone in the I’ll let you be my first fantasy starter if I don’t have one yet tier, but it’s not mandatory.  In other words, if I have Jo-Fer, I wouldn’t ignore Gio Gonzalez’s tier if they fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either. You’ll be fine taking Jo-Fer and moving right into the Chaz Bono’s tier or the Matt Harvey tier that Matt Harvey isn’t in, but let’s say you start your staff with Jo-Fer and Gio Gonzalez because he falls to you, you should skip right to the pee/poop tier and grab someone, say, Porcello.  Again, if someone from Gio’s tier drops, then you can grab him, but you’re loading up too much on pitching at this point.  So now you have Jo-Fer, Gio and Porcello, then you jump to Thisclose and Dumpling Face tiers and grab three pitchers. (Yes, this is like a Choose Your Own Adventure.)  So that leaves you with Jo-Fer, Gio, Porcello, Buchholz, Wheeler, and Peralta. That’s one great looking staff, or so she said, whoever she is.

Now if you grab Jo-Fer or Sale or anyone in their tier, but you skip Gio’s tier and go straight to Matt Harvey’s tier that Matt Harvey isn’t in, then you grab one or two guys in that tier and one or two guys from the pee/poop tier.  If you grab one from Harvey’s tier, then grab two from pee/poop’s tier and vice versa.  At this point, you should have four starters.  Then grab two from Thisclose and Dumpling Faces. That leaves you with a staff of Sale, Gerrit Cole, Salazar, Kuroda, Samardzija and Smyly. That’s probably the best staff I’ve ever seen in the entire universe.

If your first pitcher is from the tier, “I’ll let you be my first fantasy starter if I don’t have one yet.”: – This tier goes from Gio to Zimmermann. This is my ideal pairing (which will be as convoluted as everything that came before it. Anyone that actually reads AND understands this post deserves a gold star.) Grab your first pitcher from the Gio tier, your next two pitchers from the Matt Harvey tier that Matt Harvey isn’t in, then two pitchers from pee/poop tier, then one guy from the Thisclose or Dumpling Face tier.  So you could have Gio Gonzalez, Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, Cashner, Ryu and Beachy. You just won your league and games haven’t even started. You’re welcome.

Close to ideal (let’s say ideal-ish) is if you draft one pitcher from Gio’s tier, two pitchers from either Chaz Bono’s tier or Matt Harvey’s tier that Matt Harvey isn’t in, two from the pee/poop tier and a Thisclose or Dumpling Face tier pitcher. So, that could give you Gio, Matt Cain, Sonny Gray, Porcello, Kuroda and Wheeler. Honestly, that staff looks pretty good to me; go buy yourself an ice cream cone and celebrate.

Not ideal but it will do, Pooh (let’s call it ideally Pooh) is if you draft two pitchers from Gio’s tier. Then skip to Matt Harvey’s tier that Matt Harvey isn’t in and take one, then two from the pee/poop tier then Beachy or someone from the last two favorable tiers, Dumpling Face and Thisclose.  So, you could have Gio, Minor, Salazar, Ryu, Porcello and Wheeler (or Beachy or Samardzija.)  Could this post become more confusing? Short answer:  no.  Long answer:  nooooooooooo.  But let’s try…

OVERALL THOUGHTS

You can’t go wrong with a lot of different sets of pitchers.  Shoot (not you Dick Cheney), you probably could do fine with drafting only 3 starters and 3 great relievers and streaming.  If you stick to the pitchers I like, then you’ll do well matching them up any way you see fit.  The key is to make sure you are drafting offense early and often.  What I’m doing with my tiers pairing is making sure you’re drafting a balanced staff.  You can take too much upside.  That’s why every time I draft a guy from the Matt Harvey tier that Matt Harvey isn’t in, I go right to the pee/poop tier.  The pee/poop tier is the key tier in the starter rankings.  That’s your grounded, down-to-earth balanced starters to your upside ones.  Look at the names in the pee/poop tier:  Ryu, Kuroda, Medlen, Porcello, Cashner, etc.  You’re really hoping to take the risk off of your Salazar’s and Sonny Gray’s.  Pee/poop will not win you your league, but without it you’re gonna lose.  Huh?  Okay, let’s move on.

TROUBLE AREAS

WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.23 WHIP, take one below. The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be. For instance, if you take Liriano, who I have projected for a 1.25, you need to pair him with someone I have projected below a 1.23. Don’t pair Liriano with Chris Tillman.  Don’t pair Liriano with Josh Johnson.  Pair Liriano with Kuroda. Pair him with Alfredo Jettuccine Griffin. Pair him with Ryu.  Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs.  In the top 80 starters, there’s only three starters below a 1.23 WHIP, and one of them I don’t recommend drafting (Dan Haren).  Sidenote:  WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.

What about “Lottery Tickets?!” – There’s a whole slew of pitchers I haven’t mentioned after the Thisclose and Dumpling Face tiers. I even like some of them, namely the Lottery Tickets tier in the top 100 starters for 2014 fantasy baseball.  These guys are 7th starters, DL-bound or minor league-bound starters that you’re stashing.  I wouldn’t count on any of them for anything.  I like me some Alex Wood as much as the next guy, but are you really starting him every time out in April and risking a huge blow up, which would lead to a crushing April that leaves you in your fantasy baseball basement and a chance to start trading for keepers in May?  You take a flyer on someone like Jameson Taillon, hope he gets the call and if he doesn’t, you decide whether to drop him in redraft leagues.  He’s not your 6th starter.

K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be much of an issue. You’re shooting for around 150/starter.

Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st.  Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint. Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive.  Always.  Even in deep leagues.

BONUS FEATURE

Because we both know everything above this point was the gibberish of a mad mind, here’s an easy to use shortcut.  Just click the pitcher you draft, then you’ll get a short list of the next pitcher you’re supposed to draft. Voila, snitches! Now, have at it:

472 Comments
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Scooterboy
Scooterboy
8 years ago

Grey, or whoever else would like to comment. I’m in a 8 team, H2H, 5×5 league. With being only 8 teams, should I stick to Grey’s strategy of Heavy offense first, and target pitching later in rounds 6th or so? Or should I put more emphasis on pitchers earlier than usual? Just wondering if the lesser amount of teams in the league, should change my strategy any? Thanks for the help!!!

Scooterboy
Scooterboy
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Allowed 7 moves per week. Sorry, about posting same question on other thread. Not a regular here, so didn’t know if you go back and check prior days. Thanks again.

Robinnade
Robinnade
8 years ago

Too much upside not enough experience or are you ok with this staff in a 10 team h2h 5×5 cats 6 pitcher league….? Thanks!

Cobb
Tehrehan
Liriano
Gray
Masterson
A Wood

Brad
Brad
8 years ago

Hey Grey,
Love your articles, so I come to you with a question I can’t find a good answer for elsewhere.
Our old AL only roto went under, so we’re going another direction and starting a AL/NL H2H Auction. It’s going to be deep – with 14 teams, 5OF, UT, MI and CI – so we want middle relievers to have relevance, but we don’t know how to set up the scoring format concerning the point ratio between wins/saves/holds (right now we’ve got saves and wins both being worth 7points). Like I said, we want middle relievers to be relevant, but I want to be careful not to make holds worth so much compared to saves/wins that guys are starting 9 middle relievers. Any thoughts or opinions from your experience would be appreciated. Thanks!

Casey Jones
Casey Jones
8 years ago

@Grey Thanks for all of the hard work you put into your articles. I’ve been doing quite a few mock drafts and have been trying to follow your advice. I’ve been consistently drafting this lineup. My league subs OBP for AVG. My biggest concern is that I took too many pitchers from the Matt Harvey tier. What are your thoughts?

C: Lucroy
1B: Votto
2B: Phillips
SS: Desmond
3B: Encarnación
MI: Andrus
CI: Ortiz
OF: Choo
OF: Aoki
OF: Brantley
U: Brad Miller
U: Garcia
SP: Cole
SP: Fister
SP: Teheran
SP: Wacha
SP: Salazar
SP: Corbin
RP: Matt Lindstrom
RP: Rodney
B: Pineda
B: Gray
B: Calhoun
B: Khris Davis
B: De Aza

Casey Jones
Casey Jones
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: 10 teams

Casey Jones
Casey Jones
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Great. Thanks Grey. Much appreciated it.

Nick
Nick
8 years ago

I’ve got Darvish as a very cheap keeper in my 12-team keeper league.

Should I stick with a chaz bono as my #2 or do I try for a higher ranked SP in another another tier?

TheOne
TheOne
8 years ago

Brah your methods are so out dated its not even funny. Its 2014, the games been changing!

Brooke
Brooke
8 years ago

Hi Grey! Quick question about how you draft. When drafting your teams do you just follow your tiers for each position or do you draft off of your top 100 & 400 lists? Thank you!

jaw
jaw
8 years ago

make this trade in a 12 team h2h 5×5 auction keeper? 20% keeper inflation per year, no max years kept. 8 keepers max, i would keep manny and xander, i wouldnt keep yelich or wheeler.

i give
xander boagerts $10
manny machado $11
christian yelich $10
zach wheeler $10

i get
au shizz $16

Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Montezuma's Revenge... right now
8 years ago

12 team H2H league with 2 catchers and one each at LF/RF/CF/OF 6 SP and 5 RP per day. also lots of stats R/RBI/HR/net steals/K’s (least wins)/OPS/XBH amongst hitting cats and W/L/holds/era/whip/K to BB/relief losses/QS/net saves. keep 4 out of
cargo/j.up/machado/billy h./braun/F-Her/Greinke/Chapman/Kenley/avisail. i’m pretty sure i should keep cargo/braun/f-her but not sure about the last one.

Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Reply to  Montezuma's Revenge... right now
8 years ago

@Montezuma’s Revenge… right now: also due to some previous owners getting kicked out i’m drafting 4th overall and these people are all available
trout/jones/strasburg/scherzer/jo-fer/sale/goldy/cano/longo so i’m sure to get 1 of cano/trout/jones/goldy if that helps with which keepers or who i should draft after keepers (i.e. get cano or goldy if i keep all OF’er)

Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: i’m guessing that means at my first pick to take goldy/cano (goldy if still there) over trout due to already having LF/RF/CF (when Cargo qualifies at CF after 5 games), although Trout could be my any OF spot. He’s probably not around at 4th overall anyway.

Matthew
Matthew
8 years ago

Dude, Grey, have you done the Bonus match is the past? Because that’s really really REALLY cool. Very helpful. I mean, I can specifically folllow your bstratgey on draft days, have this window open of many and click the pitcher to next tier I can choose from.

For the post part it is very easy, especially if you read everyones articles and have common sense, but I can dig it.

Thanks again for all the help. The 1.23 Whip especially helps me every year.

Fman99
8 years ago

13 team 5×5 keeper, 3 year keeper limit at round value. Already keeping Ian Desmond (round 16), Coco Crisp (17), MIke Minor (14) and Homer Bailey (7). Best choice for 5th keeper from:

Aoki (9)
Brantley (22)
Lind (26)
Alex Gordon (5)
Hosmer (6)
Eric Young (20)
Balfour (12)
L. Hawkins (20)
Perkins (11)

Thanks Grey!

Papajeansegura
Papajeansegura
8 years ago

Grey, you think if everyone in my league follows your strategy of holding out on drafting pitchers and one person, focuses their team solely on pitchers, and maybe one or two offensive categories like runs and SBs or batting average, is it possible for that team to have success? Just wondering because I think your strategy is gaining popularity of holding off on pitchers, as I have done 2 mock drafts and it seems to be a trend

Jon
Jon
8 years ago

What do you think about dealing Ian Desmond for Heyward and Brad Miller?

H2H 5×5, keep forever league, all would be keepers for me.

Charles
Charles
8 years ago

ESPN ranks are out. Looks like you could easily build this team in a 12-teamer picking last:

C – Montero
1B – Fielder
2B – Gyorko
3B – Middlebrooks/Asche/Arenado/Frazier
SS – Segura
OF – Jones
OF – Bautista
OF – Gordon
UTIL – Pujols
UTIL – Rizzo

SP – Verlander, Cobb, Teheran, Moore, Liriano, Gray
RP – Robertson plus 2 of Jones, Henderson, Brothers, etc.

This seems like a ridiculously good team to me. What do you think?

Charles
Charles
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: They’ve got Pujols 52, Bautista 47, and Bruce 45. Hard to pass those guys up in the 3rd/4th round. Any chance you’d take an early SP knowing one or three of your top-20 guys will be there a round or two later?

Verlander 61 and Moore 129 in the ESPN rankings. Looks like they love them even less than you!

Corey
Corey
8 years ago

Grey, what’s the better value… Keeping Edwin Encarnacion for $26 or Domonic Brown for $1?

I know how you feel about Brown. But if I keep him as a third OF for $1, I would no doubt have the most money to spend out of any other team in my league this year, which would put me in a good position to bid aggressively on Edwin anyway.

(In either scenario, I want Edwin coming back to my team).

Corey
Corey
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: I’m… surprised you said that. But glad you did, it was my initial thinking. Problem is 3B power is in short supply and my fantasy league is Toronto based, so you can be sure E5 will be going for $40+.

That said, I feel more comfortable spending $40 for that kind of production than $15ish for one of the ho-hum third string outfielders like Brown.

Nate
8 years ago

Hi Grey, love the site! Please, your drafting advice for a H2H pitching setup where we only start 5 SP and 2 RP (meaning no generic “P” spots) with no min/max IP. Thank you, keep up the awesome work!

Nate
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Great, looking forward to it!

StuntDusty
StuntDusty
8 years ago

I am in a 12 team keeper league. Standard 5×5 scoring. My SP keepers are Homer Bailey, Mike Minor, James Shields and Hyun Jin Ryu.

What other two pitchers would you look at to fill out my rotation?

Sammy
Sammy
8 years ago

Would you rather have G.Cole or M.Carpenter in a dynasty type format ?

Thx in advance.

Bulldozer
Bulldozer
8 years ago

I have a draft coming up soon for a 16 team H2H points league. Also, lineups are set weekly so double starters are important each week.

Point system is: Hitters: +1 run, +1 single, +2 double, +3 triple, +4 homerun, +2 rbi, +2 sb, +0.5 bb, -1 k.
Pitchers: +1 IP, +10 Win, +7 Save, -0.5 Hit Allowed, -1 BB allowed, -1 ER allowed, +2 K

Would you still recommend using your pitching strategy for this league or do you think elite pitchers more valuable in this league?

Thanks!

Q
Q
8 years ago

Just finished my 1st legit mock on MDC. 15 teams, didn’t bother with benches. Did it with Tim McLeod, who I think wrote here once upon a time a long time ago. I followed the top 400 ranks, but wanted to recap it here just so you know not to just follow Grey’s rankings, but his ADVICE too.

1. Get OF early and often. I had pick 8, Adam Jones taken right before me, so I grabbed Cano. Mistake. Then got Fielder in the 2nd, OK so far. Then Segura in Round 3 and I’m feeling ok. But then Pujols dropped to the 4th, so I had to get him. Then got tired of staring at Ian Kinsler at the top of my queue, so thought, heck, good player, grab him.

Fast forward a bit….and my number ONE OF is Carlos Beltran. And it only got worse from there.

2. Wait on 2B, SS, and 3B. Arenado was sitting there in round 10 or 11. But I had drafted Donaldson in round 5 or 6. Brandon Phillips was there even later. Brad Miller sat forever. If I was doing it over again, I would have gone OF early and often and been perfectly happy with these guys much later.

3. SP is even deeper than you think. I got to the point where I HAD to draft “too good” of a staff because there was literally no one else left to get. Got Cobb, Moore, Liriano, Masterson, Porcello, and Peralta.

4. Don’t lose track of closers. I ended up with Street and then had to grab Hawkins and Qualls because they were literally the only guys left with jobs by the time I got to them. I punted as best I could, but jeez, they are awful.

5. Do mock drafts! If this had been a money league, I would have been absolutely screwed. Now I’ve learned, go OF early and often (and if I had remembered to closely read the blurbs, I would have remembered that.)

Taking projections with a grain of salt….but I was 13 out of 15 according to rotowire. Definitely learned something doing this.

Q
Q
Reply to  Q
8 years ago

@Q:

As a reference:

C Jason Castro HOU R8 P8
C Carlos Ruiz PHI R22 P8
1B Prince Fielder TEX R2 P8
2B Robinson Cano SEA R1 P8
SS Jean Segura MIL R3 P8
3B Josh Donaldson OAK R5 P8
CI Albert Pujols ANA R4 P8
MI Ian Kinsler DET R6 P8
UT Cody Asche PHI R16 P8
OF Carlos Beltran NYY R7 P8
OF Alejandro DeAza CHW R11 P8
OF Avisail Garcia CHW R15 P8
OF Peter Bourjos STL R17 P8
OF Michael Brantley CLE R19 P8
SP Alex Cobb TB R9 P8
SP Matt Moore TB R10 P8
SP Francisco Liriano PIT R12 P8
SP Justin Masterson CLE R14 P8
SP Rick Porcello DET R18 P8
SP Wily Peralta MIL R23 P8
RP Huston Street SD R13 P8
RP LaTroy Hawkins COL R20 P8
RP Chad Qualls HOU R21 P8

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Q
8 years ago

@Q: there appears to be quite a gap in “getting OF early and often” and what you did. you appeared to punt OF. My main league is a 16 teamer (used to be 18) where in pretty much the worst thing you can do at this type level of depth is to not get at least 2 good OF (BEFORE round 5 starts have 2). i’m assuming you only have 3 OF spots as well as I do. If you have 5 OF spots you would be completely screwed doing what you did. My first year in that league (18 teamer at the time) i messed up and had Marlon freakin Byrd as 3rd OF (those who remember he hit like under .120 over first 4 or 5 weeks of season with nothing but singles that year)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
8 years ago

@goodfold2: nevermind, i see that you do in fact have 5 OF, and you drafted your entire IF before taking even one of them. Wow!

costaricanchata
costaricanchata
8 years ago

@ Grey :

in that league where i pulled off the trade for goldy (craig /archer/king felix)
just traded david price for j-fer (<– he's not related to jfoh , is he ?)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  costaricanchata
8 years ago

@costaricanchata: i’m guessing this league is a keeper and you wanted to quality up with goldy and quantity down by flipping those 3 guys? surprised in a keeper anybody would do take just price for jo-fer (isn’t he like 20 still)

MB
MB
8 years ago

Am I keeping Charlie Morton as my 9th SP (have 8 SP, 3 closers for 9 P spots, 5×5) or Derek Norris as 3rd catcher (have ruiz and wieters in 2C league).

Thanks

Jon
Jon
8 years ago

Which side do you like in a keep forever league? We keep 15, so all are keepers.

Stanton+Gausman OR Myers+Liriano

Thanks!

anarchy burger
anarchy burger
8 years ago

yo grey- im gonna have a choice between mccutchen and adam jones with my first round pick. do u think id be crazy to take jones?? i reached a little for jones last year( per your advice). im really not that big on mccutch. i know u have mccutch ahead of jones in the rankings. this will be my third year using your ramkings for my draft. looking forward to another successful year. thanks for all your help. i read religiously everyday. even the comments. cant tell u how much this site helps. my father said if i spent this much time on my chemistry homework id be a doctor. later!!!

anarchy burger
anarchy burger
Reply to  anarchy burger
8 years ago

@anarchy burger: ps- its a 5×5 14 teamer

goodfold2
goodfold2
8 years ago

now that i’m solidly forced into the land of starting a backup,
1.any 2 of these standout as better (or at least more AB)than the others at MI
schumaker/ciriaco/solano/herrera (BOS)/descalso/abreu (SF)/turner (LAD)/ punto/nix/e.johnson/lombardozzi/pennington/galvis. other than schumaker whom i’m already paying 1.5 million all the rest would be waivered and cost 400 k mimimum.
2. would any of these deals be better option, if so which is best
A. my A-jax 400 K this year (possibly with bruce chen thrown in, or maurer) for brad miller (400k till end of 2016)
B. Chen (is now listed as 4th starter at KC) for Rutledge
thanks, as i gotta find somebody to get at bats at 2nd MI after trading Lowrie for Liriano.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: if i can’t pull off that trade do or don’t do the a-jax for miller one? If neither works i’ll be trading chen for something else (gallo…) and waiting for an injury (good news is, due to this site i’m ahead of curve on those) to somebody to pick up one of these bums when they get at least a short term starting job.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: got it, A-jax simply worth more (likely) long term.

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
8 years ago

Starting a new keeper slow draft today. One where we can keep players for min 2 years and max of 6.

Should I just follow your new rankings for the most part, or do I need to take age into account a bit more and give the younger guys a bump up your rankings?

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Actually considering pairing an older guy like Longo/Jones with Puig at the end of the first round (im on the wheel, 16 team league) due to his age and skill already. Is Puig crazy talk?

goodfold2
goodfold2
8 years ago

anybody who has had similar experiences feel free to chime in. I want to see if this is even somewhat common. Deep 30 man dynasty off season free agent bidding for hitters. 100 million budget per team. Some of the crazy bids
Pierzynski 12 mil 1 year (2 guys bid this much)
rollins 14.3 mil for 2 years (also a 12 mil bid)
k.johnson 12 mil (2nd guy bid that much, i went as high as 2.3 mil)
mercer 7.5 for 3 years (2nd bid 3.2, i went 1.77)
crawford 12 mil (another bid 11.5)
mcgahee 5 mil (i went 1.77)
texiera 18 mil for 13 years!? (2nd guy bid 13.5 for 3 years)
aviles 4.5 mil for a backup! (i bid 1.33)
sogard 3.1 mil (last likely to stick starting CI, i bid 1.77)
and with biggest overbid
suzuki 10 mil (2nd was only 2 mil)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
8 years ago

@goodfold2: texiera for 3 years, not 13.

Dan
Dan
8 years ago

Keeper question:

16 team, OPS league. I need to keep 4:

Bruce — $31
Scherzer — $19
Carlos Gomez — $18
Billy Hamilton — $1
Teheran — $1
Aaron Hill — $1
Gerrit Cole — $1

Dan
Dan
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Thanks!

Eric
Eric
8 years ago

Grey,

Dynasty question. I get to keep 4 players. I’m definitely keeping Trout, Bryce, & Miggy My 4th I am having difficulty deciding on. Do I go with Wainwright, Kipnis, or Xander Boegarts? Thanks.

slew
slew
8 years ago

Just noticed the addition of the official Razzball Newsletter to the mix. Miss Cleo didn’t mention anything about this…

Oppo Taco
Oppo Taco
8 years ago

Keep ryan zimmerman/profar/boegarts? can only keep one.No price tags or limit to how long we can keep them. was offered minor for a third round pick as well, thanks

Buge Hoobs
Buge Hoobs
8 years ago

Did I miss your top 20 pairings? … If you take X in the 1st consider Y in the 2nd.

Paul
Paul
8 years ago

Hi Grey,

Am in 8 team ROTO 6×6 (with HD, SV) league and no drop limits, so nice SPs usually in FA and teams add & drop often. I relied on two aces (Kershaw and Wainy) and wash FA SPs so pitching scores are good last year.

Also, I’ve got Kershaw for keepers already (3 keepers overall).
It seems like I should draft next SP when my 5th round (target “I’ll let you be my first fantasy starter if I don’t have one yet” or “Chaz Bono” tier)

How do you think when I should draft my next SP?
earlier for two aces like last year? or any thoughts appreciated. Thanks,

Paul
Paul
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Thanks for comments.
Harvey ‘s tier is around ranking 100 overal.
With 3 keepers 8 teams league, I should draft another starter around the 9th round.
(12th round pick overall, minus 3 keepers each team)

Is my understanding right? And, draft all hitters before 9th round? Thanks.

Paul
Paul
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Thanks.
One more simple question, if score item are K, W, QS, SV, WHIP (no HD), answer still the same? Thanks.

goodfold2
goodfold2
8 years ago

i got only gillaspie (now being listed as backup to davidson, but a week ago when i sent bids was listed as starter, ugh) and jeff baker in bidding. No starting MI cost less than 4 million a year, and I was only bidding no more than 2.3 on anybody (K.johnson, who went for 12 mil, 2 people actually bid 12 mil for johnson). Did i mess up not noticing that ryan flaherty was a starter (and went for only 1.6 mil) at 3B? I got Gillaspie for 1.31 mil. Looks like i’ll be starting
1.Schumaker for now.
2. Or keep Ciriaco at a MI slot.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
8 years ago

@goodfold2: i also probably should have bid on tejada (he went for only .75 mil, and i would’ve won him)

Simply Fred
simply fred
Reply to  goodfold2
8 years ago

@goodfold2: i am seeing flaherty listed in a platoon situation so don’t look back on missing him.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  simply fred
8 years ago

@simply fred: thanks, i’m attempting to flip bruce chen for rutledge (or somebody else comparable) currently. I really don’t want Chen at 4.5 million (people need starters in this league, some badly, so i think i have a trade piece here)

Jon
Jon
8 years ago

Would you deal Medlen for Ortiz? I’m not a big fan of keeping a DH-only guy on my roster, but Ortiz’s bat would be a big upgrade for me at DH (Lawrie is there currently). It would bump Lawrie from a keeper spot, but either way I’m not planning to keep Medlen.

Jon
Jon
Reply to  Jon
8 years ago

…or would Beltran be a better target?

Alex
Alex
8 years ago

So this guy wants Miguel Almonte along with Alex Gordon for Marte in dynasty. Need steals. Do the deal?

Brett
Brett
8 years ago

13 team 5×5 260 auction keeper league (note: pricing at draft is Cabrera $70, Kershaw $65). Won last year and have this pitching staff currently:

SP: Darvish – 41
SP: Price – 43
SP: Gio – 15
SP: Cobb – 10
SP: Grey – 5
RP: Nathan – 5
RP: Open

Do I move Price for a $5 Medlen and $10 Marte (giving me around 32% pitching salary hit) or do I dare keep my current pitching and try to dominate SP cats with a crippling 45% invested in pitching?

fitz
fitz
8 years ago

Keep any 5 with no round or auction value penalty.

Rizzo
Segura
Bruce
Miggy
Jose Reyes
David Price
Scherzer
Jose Fernandez
Kenley Jansen

Was thinking Segura, Bruce, Miggy, Scherzer, Jose Fernandez

Agree?

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  fitz
8 years ago

@fitz: I wouldn’t be surprised if Mr. G swaps out one of your SPs with Rizzo.

Mr.Blonde
Mr.Blonde
8 years ago

Outstanding article Grey. I read this one last year and it really was a revelation for thinking about pitching values.

Enjoy the drinks!

Dratsab
Dratsab
8 years ago

Grey thanks to your advise on pitching I have won my 14 team keeper league three years running. Largely I combine your parameters with the idea of spend no money on pitching. so I can have lots of offence.
This year I go into the fray with
Price $17
Zimmerman $12
Iwakuma $1
Porcello $1
Peavy $1
Kluber $5
Estrada $1
Reed $1
Farquer $5
Spending $44 of $260 on pitching.
I am looking to trade Price for someone from Thisclose or dumpling face to cut this price even more..
Is this wise or should I leave well enuff alone?

John E Depth
John E Depth
8 years ago

Keeper league, 300$ salary…
Would you keep Matt Harvey for 13$ this season? I have 25 total roster spots, 3 DL spots. He’ ll be 16$ next year if I keep him. I sorta think Harvey will pretty much pick up where he left off next year after TJ surgery although his innings may be capped. But I may be able to get him in the auction fairly cheap next year if no one picks him up…thanks in advance.

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
8 years ago

ESPN released their official Top 300 rankings. Some huge discrepancies from these Razzrankings for anyone to exploit who uses ESPN:

Player: Razz Rank / ESPN Rank
Bautista 14 / 47
Pujols 12 / 52
Segura 28 / 73
Myers 47 / 81
Rizzo 60 / 106
Cobb 54 / 121
Gyorko 88 / 156
Salazar 123 / 180
Sonny Gray 101 / 182
Liriano 70 / 197
Brad Miller 143 / 299

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Cobb outside the top 100 is a pleasant surprise.

Gray and Liriano outside the top 180 guarantees lots of Razznation teams will have them.

Oh yeah, and Calhoun and Garcia aren’t even in the top 300

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Myers almost exactly where you said at the end of last year he’d get taken this year. Can’t believe Pujols that low, seems like ESPN’s old guys being good for many years after would actual increase Pujols’ standing.

Mr.Blonde
Mr.Blonde
Reply to  SwaggerJackers
8 years ago

@SwaggerJackers: Will ESPN tweak these ranking any before the height of draft season?

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  Mr.Blonde
8 years ago

@Mr.Blonde: Yep, but more for injuries and position battle announcements. Not so much for opinion-based adjustments.

For example, Liriano won’t shoot up 50 spots if he has a good spring training but Farquhar (or whatever his name is) will fall out of the rankings now that he’s not a closer.

Tom
Tom
8 years ago

Thoughts?
12 team mixed h2h

Salvador Perez – C
Prince Fielder – 1B
Adam Jones – OF
Alex Rios – OF
Curtis Granderson – OF
Nolan Arenado – 3B
Jurickson Profar – 2B
Elvis Andrus – SS
Anthony Rizzo – DH
Chris Sale – SP
Sonny Gray – SP
Danny Salazar – SP
Zack Wheeler – SP
Randall Delgado – SP
Kevin Gausman – SP
Bobby Parnell – RP

letsgobravos
letsgobravos
8 years ago

What’s up grey and co.? Hope you guys have had a good winter thus far. Time for me to start studying up for drafts next month.

letsgobravos
letsgobravos
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Looking forward to the start of the season! Had a great fantasy football year after a disappointing end to baseball season coming up just short of titles in both leagues. I started a new job right at the beginning of last october and the hours can be fairly long. Trying to decide how many leagues to do this year. I would like to do 3-4, but I don’t want to over commit and end up not having enough time to manage as actively in every league as I would like.

First question of the year for me. Who’s my middle to late round pitcher that will turn to gold this year? I’m riding a 3 year streak of grabbing a Cy Young winner in the 6th to 10th rounds. Verlander 3 years ago, then Gio, and last year Scherzer. All thanks to your rankings. Who are some good candidates this year?

Prez
Prez
Reply to  letsgobravos
8 years ago

@letsgobravos: pitching too deep to tell…

J-FOH
J-FOH
8 years ago

My buddy was going to a Sonny Gray appearance today and refuses to get you an autographed picture that says “Nice stache”

Kid A
Kid A
Reply to  J-FOH
8 years ago

@J-FOH: I look forward to your Creeper of the Week articles. Hand in Glove.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Kid A
8 years ago

@Kid A: I plan on being the creepiest creeper yet

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Right? he says it’s for the kids, I say screw the kids, I will trounce them all to get to the head of the line. He should have more respect for you

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: you mean he could be yours?

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: he doesn’t look Jewish

tony
tony
8 years ago

pee poop!

johnny
johnny
8 years ago

Such good writer grey. Is Archie Bradely going to be relevant in 10 tm league? Draftable or just grab him once he seems to be blazin foos.

gareth
gareth
8 years ago

With Arroyo down, I see Burnett returning to Pittsburgh, jiminez to Toronto and Ervin Santana to??????

Who do you think lands big Erv, grey?

Kid A
Kid A
Reply to  gareth
8 years ago

@gareth:
Must be that time of the year…G3 in full effect. Get it tiger!

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: damn that’s not cool, i have him (also very expensive this year at 11.2 mil out of 100) in deep ass dynasty. TEX ain’t doing him no favors.

gareth
gareth
8 years ago

Is there a correlation between high strikeout guys and high whip? If so do you recommend drafting a control artist to offset this somewhat?

Whip was the one stat that killed me last year……….

gareth
gareth
8 years ago

Arizona are going to start Bronson Arroyo, Trevor Cahill, wade miley, Brandon McCarthy and Patrick Corbin.

Corbin is decent, but there’s not much fantasy value in that staff. Silver lining – At least Randall Delgado and Archie Bradley are nice sleepers in the minors if one of those guys gets injured.

Alex
Alex
8 years ago

Very nice writeup

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
8 years ago

Time to punt Delgado from your rankings. Sounds like the Arroyo will push him out of the rotation.

:/

PS: The pre-checked “join our newsletter” is a little shady.

Kid A
Kid A
8 years ago

Arrival of the new draft season starts the autopsy on my previous year’s efforts to try and learn something. Anything. I’m always amazed at how little of what I draft remains by the close of the season. I average about 4-5 draftees that make it the whole way.

I’m curious what other people encounter.

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  Kid A
8 years ago

@Kid A:

13 out of 26 made it to the end of the season in my primary keeper league.

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  SwaggerJackers
8 years ago

@SwaggerJackers:

14 out of 27 in my other league.

Kid A
Kid A
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Yeah I was speaking mainly to run-of-the-mill 12 team redrafts, like an RCL. You and the Steves were having some interesting conversations at the end of the season about draft strategies. Granted, you have to grab guys if they fall too far, but coming out of the gate carpet-bombing Mid Relief and stacking on short days seems… It’s not rocket surgery…I’ve already said too much…

As for me, back in El Salvador for the next short bit. Either South Africa or Oakland in June. Not sure. YOU HEAR THAT FBI?!?!

If it’s California, that doughy twat Jack owes me and Prezzii lots of booze for us trouncing him (and Sky) in his own football league this year.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Kid A
8 years ago

@Kid A: the best you can hope for at this point is 40’s and a fight club

Kid A
Kid A
Reply to  J-FOH
8 years ago

@J-FOH: that’s all we’ve ever wanted.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Kid A
8 years ago

@Kid A: great we’ll meet at Prezzi’s makeshift shantytown

Kid A
Kid A
Reply to  J-FOH
8 years ago

@J-FOH: Nothing makeshift about it. He is very deliberate. Silence of the Lambs deliberate. Everything is scream-proof.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Kid A
8 years ago

@Kid A: so you’ve been there…did you have to put on the lotion?

Kid A
Kid A
Reply to  J-FOH
8 years ago

@J-FOH: I just brought him a teacup poodle and some tuck-tape for Brooke. I never actually went inside: I may be crazy, but I’m not crazy.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Kid A
8 years ago

@Kid A: A Brooke drop…it never gets old

Prez
Prez
Reply to  Kid A
8 years ago

ill bring the moonshine and zig zags yall!

Joebob
Joebob
8 years ago

Players not play. 10 teamer Btw

Joebob
Joebob
8 years ago

grey, do you recommend same strategies in NL only auction keeper league? As in: avoid paying for top tier starters and avoid spending over 30 on a play? Or do you shift that a bit? Thanks ahead of time.

J-FOH
J-FOH
8 years ago

I think me need more razzball gear. I vote for the razzball poncho

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: I’m going to have to go custom…..with a matching sombrero of course

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: I did make a SAGNOF hat at Lids

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: I can get one for you too

Count de Monetball
Count de Monetball
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Dammit Grey, I wanted the Who is Grey Albright shirt. Like the others, but I was hoping that if that shirt got around a little bit we could slowly uncover your true identity…

Big Al
Big Al
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: When’s the shirt blow out coming ???

Alex
Alex
8 years ago

Which side you want for not just this yr but next three or so?

Gardner/Des Jennings

A Jax/Howie K

The Team getting Howie K only has Ackley at 2B

Keep everyone forever league

Thank you

Alex
Alex
Reply to  Grey
8 years ago

@Grey: Thanks

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
8 years ago

You forgot to apologise to all the people googling “pee and poop combo” who were disappointed. Sorry…dirty joke.

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
8 years ago

So basically just skip all the opening text/twaddle and skip to the storybook adventure links below right?!

JiggyNits
JiggyNits
8 years ago

You gave me some keeper advice earlier in the year – but I’m thinking about dealing Waino.

Both in last year of keeper status, how do you feel about Wainwright(11$) for Harper (10$)

Other possible keepers include:
Carpenter (9)
Gyorko (1)
Samardzija (1)
JoFer (19)
Wacha (10)
Chapman (3)

JiggyNits
JiggyNits
Reply to  JiggyNits
8 years ago

@JiggyNits: NL only roto, BB Instead of R scored, and thanks!

Chin Music
Chin Music
8 years ago

I have to question the idea of going on the cheap with starting pitching. If pitching is so deep, then the teams with the Kershaws & Darvishes are going to be filling the back of their rotations while teams on the cheap will still filling out their middle starters. Sure, you could find a group of nice starters late who can guide you to a Team ERA around 3.50. Except that a team ERA of 3.50 might be among the worst in your league if other guys have workhorse stud pitchers with ERAs closer to 2.50 or 2.75. A team ERA around 3.50 might not be much different than having one around 4.00 I don’t disagree that the first few rounds should definitely go to hitters, but if you are waiting to take your first SP until 20 other SP are already off the board, then you are asking to finish last in the pitching categories. Just sayin’.

c0wfunk
c0wfunk
Reply to  Chin Music
8 years ago

@Chin Music: Last year if you picked a top 10 pitcher you only had a 30% (Kershaw, Lee, Darvish) chance of that pitcher ending the season as a top 10 pitcher. In 2012 there was a 60% chance (Verlander, Kershaw, Price, Cain, Weaver, Hamels). So knowing that and looking at the top 10 this year, what is your chance that you will have picked one of them?

That’s the main point of the strategy, I think. A key second point is that there are always surprises in the top 40 pitchers that could be drafted much later. A few of which are available after the season begins. The trick of course then becomes identifying which pitchers those will be!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Chin Music
8 years ago

@Chin Music: All I know is that every year I’ve drafted a “stud” pitcher early, I’ve lost. Sure, you have to be savvy and a little lucky molding your rotation from rounds 7-10 and beyond, like one comprised of MiKe Minor, JoFer, Shelby Miller, Iwakuma from last year, but that’s the goal of Grey’s rankings/tiers, to identify those guys that you can get on the cheap so you don’t have to spend $50 on a Kershaw.

Chin Music
Chin Music
Reply to  Cram It
8 years ago

I guess my logic is also based on my league settings. we have a 1750 IP cap. Not every team uses all those IP, but many do. K/IP rate is pretty crucial, especially if you don’t have a couple of closers who rack up 100K. A guy like Jered Weaver is a decent pitcher in real life, but will kill you in my league with his low K rate.

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
8 years ago

The FBI is watching you!

gareth
gareth
8 years ago

The tier with Tanaka is kinda odd looking. its this random Asian dude hanging with a bunch of young guys (Salazar, Cole, Grey ect).

A real boom / bust tier, relying on upside and the unknown.

gareth
gareth
8 years ago

I used the tool and got Darvish, Cain, Tanaka, Medlen, Cashner, Jimenez.

If I end up with that staff I’d be ecstatic. (The last choice was actually the toughest between Burnett, Jimenez and samardzija).

A very handy tier tool to add to my drafting kit!

gareth
gareth
8 years ago

Its weird seeing a troll on here. You can tell from his comments though that he was trying to get a rise/reaction. pretty sad really.

Bulldozer
Bulldozer
8 years ago

Hey Grey,

What do you do if you already have a pitcher (say Gio) and then say Liriano is still available in the 10th round? Would you take two people from that tier even though your ideal is just one pitcher?

Thanks for all your advice. It’s great!

Cram It
Cram It