Yesterday, we went over the top 20 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball and today it’s the top 40 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball.  This is one of my favorite ranking posts because I usually end up with two starters from these twenty.  They are the low end number one starters.  To quote Lil Jon at his fantasy baseball draft, “Get low end number ones!  To the Carrasco, to the Wheeler!  Til Wood drop his base on balls!  Til all these pitchers fall!”  Is it weird I have a man crush on Lil Jon?  He seems like he’d be a constant source of entertainment if you hung out with him on the day-to-day.  Also, besides the low end number ones, there’s number twos and high end number threes.  These are going to be your fantasy staff linchpins.  So, all the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings are right in there.  As with all other ranking posts, my projections and tiers are included.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball:

21. Mat Latos – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Hughes.  I called this tier, “Save your druthers for your mothers, these are (this is?) my druthers.”  This offseason I said, “(Latos was) traded to the Marlins.  If the Marlins are making a run at a championship this year, that means they could be selling off their entire team this time next year and moving to Montreal.  I’m not even half-joking.  I’m like twenty-nine percent joking.  You know who is going to accept this trade with open arms?  Dallas Latos.  She looks forward to the challenge of insulting a new fan base on Twitter.  She might need to learn some Spanish curses.  The only thing stopping Latos from being a number one fantasy starter is health.  He had knee surgery in the early part of last year and then got skipped in September due to an elbow bruise.  When I Googled updates for Latos’s elbow, I swear to you I found multiple results that read, “Mat Latos’s wife says the injury is minor.”  She’s one dye job from being Anna Benson.  Latos is too young (27) to be breaking down, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, but he does come with some risk.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2015 Projections:  13-7/3.19/1.17/181

22. Zack Wheeler – I’m likely the only fantasy baseball ‘pert telling you to draft Wheeler prior to Harvey, and surely the only one telling you implicitly to draft Wheeler and not Harvey.  Let’s just go with what we know, okay?  Last year, Wheeler had a 9.1 K/9 and a 3.49 xFIP in 185 1/3 IP and Harvey didn’t pitch due to Tommy John surgery.  That alone has me puzzled why I’m the only one telling you to draft Wheeler and use caution with Harvey.  Seriously.  Are we taking everything we’ve learned about Tommy John surgery over the past three decades and chucking it into a New Jersey river-slash-sewage receptacle?  Doesn’t all the work that Tommy John has done operating on young pitcher arms deserve better?  The Mets have already said Harvey will be held out until mid-April and will be on a limited workload.  Whereas, Wheeler can throw 200+ IP and strikeout 200 guys.  200 strikeouts alone is worth about $5 in fantasy value.  200 IP should yield at least 12 wins (which is pessimistic).  12 wins is about $2.50 in fantasy value.  Let’s say Harvey pitches 150 IP, gets 150 Ks and 7 wins (both of which are optimistic).  150 Ks is $1.50 and 7 wins from a starter is $-2.3, so Harvey is a negative eighty cents value vs. Wheeler that is $7.50.  You’re telling me Harvey will be that much better in ERA and WHIP to make up the $8.30 difference?  Sorry, but you’re crazy.  UPDATE:  The moral of this story is never trust the Mets2015 Projections:  12-9/3.39/1.28/201

23. Phil Hughes – Felt like Hughes has been kicking around the majors for, like, seven years.  Yeah, it felt that way, because he had.  Luckily, he was called up when he was only 21 and is now only 28 years old (let’s just say I didn’t trust you to do the math).  Since 2000, Hughes had the lowest walk rate for any pitcher with an 8 K/9.  Only guys close to him were Cliff Lee, Iwakuma, Halladay, and only The Adverb was really, really close.  Yes, two reallys.  (I had three reallys ready to go, but I’m saving one for later.  I’d hate to be without a really in a pinch.)  Quite a few guys were very successful giving up very few walks, but never with that many Ks.  Hughes won’t get you 200 Ks, but the low walks isn’t a fluky thing.  Or a hirame thing, if a sushi chef is reading.  He had a barely 2 BB/9 back in 2006 in the Yankees minor league system.  If Hughes can get a 7.6 K/9 (slightly below his 2014) and a 1.2 BB/9 (almost double his walk rate last year), he’s still going to be a low-3 ERA guy without bad luck.  2015 Projections: 13-9/3.29/1.14/178

24. Yu Darvish – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Harvey.  I call this tier, “Not touching them with a nine-foot pole that has twelve one-inch straws taped to its end.”  Pretty self-explanatory on the tier name.  You can draft the guys in this tier, but then we will no longer be friends and I already bought you a birthday gift that I will need to return.  As for Darvish, he only threw 144 1/3 IP last year and he was still having MRIs on his elbow as late as November.  That sounds awesome!…If your league has MRIs as a category.  If it doesn’t perchance, then I wouldn’t draft Darvish anywhere.  He could be absolutely fine but there’s about four hundred (maybe thirty) pitchers that I would draft, why draft one you know is already nursing an injury?  It makes no sense.  Let someone else take the gamble. UPDATE:  I wouldn’t draft him anywhere, since he could be headed for Tommy John surgery very soon.  Sadly, I’m not implying he’s going to sit in the audience for Brandon Beachy’s 5th surgery.    2015 Projections:  11-9/3.42/1.24/188

25. Masahiro Tanaka – I feel ya on wanting to draft Tanaka or Darvish.  And, when I say I feel ya, I’m being empathic, I’m not saying I’m the random guy standing behind you, massaging your shoulders.  I don’t know who that is.  Yeah, they could be terrific this year and will likely come at a small discount since they might not be healthy.  It’s not worth it.  If you draft a guy in this tier, you’re either going to have a false sense of confidence and not draft appropriately.  I.e., You, “I drafted Tanaka, so I don’t need a number one starter, so while my leaguemates are drafting starters, I’m going to write pithy comments in the draft chat room.”  Or you’re going to draft Tanaka, not trust him and just have to draft yet another top starter, which is going to leave you short on offense.  Either scenario stinks, though the first scenario does involve you thinking you’re funny while annoying your leaguemates, but it’s still not worth it.  2015 Projections:  10-4/3.49/1.15/150

26. Adam Wainwright – Oops, I almost ranked 2014 Justin Verlander here.  It’s a pretty easy call to tell you to stay away from Wainwright.  His fastball velocity has fallen to barely 90 MPH.  He has a ton of innings on his arm.  His xFIP last year was 3.34.  His K-rate was 7.1.  That was good for 48th overall last year for qualified starters.  Just in front of Aaron Harang.  Any time you’re mentioned in the same breath as The Harangutan it’s bad news unless you’re Jane Goodall after swallowing three breath mints.  2015 Projections:  14-12/3.53/1.15/161

27. Matt Harvey – I went over Harvey in the Wheeler blurb.  You’re skipping ahead if you didn’t know that.  Shame on you.  2015 Projections:  7-3/3.27/1.10/150

28. Matt Shoemaker – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gray (I’m right here.  Oh!).  I call this tier, “Go ahead, draft your pants off.  No, figuratively!”  Last year, Shoemaker had a 8.2 K/9 and a 1.6 BB/9.  That sounds like Iwakuma.   And in the top 20 starters, I said Iwakuma sounded like Greg Maddux.  And I’ve heard Greg Maddux sounds like a deflating balloon animal while on the toilet.  And a toilet flushing sounds like Merle Haggard after two bottles of whiskey.  So Shoemaker is a drunk Merle Haggard.  That’s some pretty good company Shoemaker finds himself in.  2015 Projections:  15-8/3.33/1.09/164

29. Mike Fiers – I already went over my Mike Fiers fantasy.  I wrote it while someone tried to sell me on new windshield wipers while my oil was changed.  I live in LA, I don’t need new windshield wipers, Jiffy Lube!  (Note:  Since I wrote the Fiers sleeper post, the Brewers traded away Yovani (someone actually took him?), so Fiers is no longer at risk of losing his starting job.  No tears for Fiers!)  2015 Projections:  12-8/3.35/1.15/189

30. Julio Teheran – I was crazy for Teheran last year.  Screaming Teheran #1, Teheran #1, Teheran #1 and ptooey’ing on your flag.  Unfortch, he took a pretty sizable step backward and we were lucky to escape with a 2.89 ERA.  His K-rate fell to 7.6 and his velocity fell a full mile per hour.  He’ll only be 24 years old, and was a top prospect, so I’m not done with him, but I do have him behind guys that will likely go after him, which makes it unlikely I draft Teheran this year.  I will if he’s there, he just may not be.  Even more succinct:  Teheran there okay, Teheran not there okay.  Succinter:  Not okay, okay.  2015 Projections:  12-10/3.37/1.10/167

31. Jacob deGrom – On a side note that is more related than most of my side notes, don’t ask why so-and-so is above so-and-so, but the 2nd so-and-so has better projections than the first so-and-so.  There’s more than just numbers going on with rankings.  The risk of not reaching the projections needs to be weighed.  Wainwright is above Shoemaker, for instance, but Shoemaker has better projections.  Yeah, but Wainwright has seven years of being good, Shoemaker has three-quarters of a year.  Wainwright is an injury risk and has declining skills, Shoemaker HAS THREE-QUARTERS OF A YEAR OF BEING GOOD.  Damn, my caps lock button is sticky.  I must’ve read Alex Wood’s blurb again.  Finally, it’s moot that Wainwright is above Shoemaker because guys like Alex Wood are above Wainwright, so if Wainwright is still around in your draft when you’re ready to draft a starter, there’s no way Alex Wood is not still around to draft instead.  Or Zach Wheeler or someone.  As for DeGrom, he averages 93 MPH on his fastball, has a 9+ K/9 and an under-3 BB/9.  There’s a case to be made for him in Wheeler’s tier, but I’m not making that case.  Though, I still like DeGrom, i.e., I want all my fantasy dreams to come true at DeGromicon.  2015 Projections:  11-6/3.19/1.19/164

32. Sonny Gray – Maybe I’m just like my father.  Too bold.  Maybe I’m just like my mother.  Too in love with anyone named Gray.  Why do we scream at each other when we’re at the table with wine?  This is what it sounds like when Jews and Italians dine!  Oh, I didn’t hear you come in.  Sorry, I was just singing in the shower.  Wait, why are you in my bathroom?  Gray didn’t take that big step forward like I’d hoped last year.  He’s similar to Teheran in that regard.  He didn’t lose velocity or have a ton of luck either.  His BABIP was .277 (which seems low), but O.co is notorious for low BABIPs.  I’m sure most will assume Gray will show regression in his ERA this year, but he seems more likely to just repeat his last year than exceed it or…What’s the opposite of exceed?  Deceed?  Suckceed?  Sorry, I’m having a brain…What’s it called when you poop air?  2015 Projections:  12-11/3.27/1.21/189

33. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until McHugh.  I call this tier, “You’re not on the ones and twos, just twos and maybe threes.”  You should have a number one starter already.  If you don’t, well, you’re punting a little, but that’s okay.  I got nuttin’ but love for you, baby.  RIP, Heavy D.  With this tier, we’re in the fantasy number two to three range.  At a later date I’ll go over how to draft a staff, but that gives you a bit of an idea where we’re at.  Here’s what I said this offseason about Liriano, “Re-signed with Pirates.  I ranked Liriano crazy high last year because in 2013 he had a 9+ K/9 and 3.02 ERA and I was like, “What’s the problem?  Doode’s straight fire getting spit out of a Tongan’s mouth at a ritual for something sacred.”  Then the first half of 2014 happened and it looked like that Tongan fire was just a really acidic burp.  In the end, Liriano got his shizz together and ended with a 9.7 K/9 and a 3.38 ERA.  Of course, last year every pitcher had an ERA under 3.40, but Liriano ended up connecting the dots on something better than we would’ve thought when he had a 4.72 ERA in July.  I still like him (what, I’m a sucker for Ks, leave me alone), and now I’m just more concerned that he’s a 31-year-old who has only been healthy for more than 163 IP in one season in his career.  He appears solid, but for only a few months a year.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2015 Projections:  12-7/3.52/1.26/161

34. Yordano Ventura – If a number one starter can be generally described as a guy with a 6 or greater difference between his K and walk rates, a number two to three starter can be described as a guy with around a 8 K/9 and 3 BB/9.  (Or 9 K/9 and 4 BB/9 in Liriano’s case.)  Yordano has a bit more upside because he throws harder than any man has ever thrown who also would barely come up to Brigitte Nielsen’s shoulder line.  Ventura also might weigh a buck fifty soaking wet.  On his father’s side, there was no sprouts, but a bunch of string beans.  2015 Projections:  12-11/3.41/1.26/173

35. Collin McHugh – Steamer projections hate McHugh.  I get the no love thing.  He did come out of nowhere to have a 2.73 ERA and 9.1 K/9 last year.  I mean, not out of nowhere nowhere, if my repetition makes it more clear what I mean.  I have my doubts.  McHugh did have great years in the minors in the Mets system, and it’s a point in his favor that the Mets gave him away, since they only part with the best.  His curve has a 16.1% strikeout rate, which is terrific.  His fastball is pretty boring and flat but he doesn’t throw it all that much, and his slider is decent.  He’s also never thrown 200 IP in a season.  In layman’s terms, which isn’t a euphemism for a porn actor, McHugh won’t repeat next year, but he shouldn’t also take a dive either.  2015 Projections:  10-9/3.35/1.19/184

36. Chris Archer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here Pineda.  I call this tier, “Scarf isn’t just a piece of clothing I’m wearing, it’s a verb for nom nom nom.”  I want to nom nom nom these starters.  I have my crosshairs directly scoped to Archer.  Pun point!  Sure, the Rays may only win 42 games this year, but that’s why you’re carrying middle relievers when you can, so you can vulture wins.  The Rays being muy mal has me optimistic for Archer.  He won’t have any pressure.  Alleviate the pressure and the steam rises, which I believe was a quote by Mr. Wizard.  Archer averaged the 7th fastest fastball, between Samardzija and Strasburg.  Okay, I’m sold.  Seriously, he’s on the precipice of being a 9+ K/9, 2+ BB/9 pitcher and a number one.  2015 Projections:  9-11/3.47/1.26/182

37. Marcus Stroman – All you have to know is he has a sub-2 BB/9 and averaged 93.5 MPH on his fastball.  If you have to know more, Stroman could be a number one starter this year.  If you must know even more, he could be a top 5 starter next year.  If you need further info, you’re greedy.  What’s up with that?  There’s people in North Korea starving for information and you’re hogging it all.  UPDATE:  Torn ACL, out for year  2015 Projections:  14-10/3.53/1.12/188

38. Drew Hutchison – I already gave you my Drew Hutchison fantasy.  I wrote it on a hunch.  My apologies to the man with osteoporosis.  2015 Projections:  13-9/3.72/1.24/197

39. Drew Smyly – The Emoticon dominates lefties with ease.  Hey, what are you Smyly at?  Oh, it’s a lefty.  Last year, his BAA vs. same handedness was .171, but vs. righties it was .264, which is passable.  He doesn’t throw hard.  He can get beat on his fastball.  He gives up too many fly balls.  He needs to rely on his curve.  And he does.  He threw it 28.5% of the time, that’s the 2nd most in the majors behind only Burnett, A.J., not Carol.  Here’s a list of guys that use the curve the most:  Burnett, Smyly, Wainwright, Gray.  Only Gray has an above-average fastball.  In July, Smyly’s curve went kerploop.  Hitters hit .345 vs. the curve.  I have no idea why, maybe he lost the feel for it.  In that month, his ERA was 4.85.  In August, when the curve was working, he had a .061 batting average against the curve and a 1.50 ERA.  Like a male porn star, he goes whichever way his curve goes.  There’s a bit more risk to Smyly, but I like a guy that throws a pitch nearly 30% of the time that hitters can’t touch on most days.  2015 Projections:  10-11/3.38/1.14/162

40. Michael Pineda – (This tier ends here but starters continue in top 60 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball.) Here’s about the only reason the Yankees should be optimistic about the upcoming season.  Should make it interesting to see how ESPN filters the pee-poor Yankees through rose-colored glasses for the Yankees thirty-seven Sunday night, nationally-televised games.  “A-Rod is only batting .212 on the year, but with runners in scoring position in the fifth inning, he’s batting .575.  You can’t say he’s not clutch.”  That’s Soup.  Pineda is getting the benefit of the doubt with this ranking.  He needs to throw 180 IP to come close to this value.  He has thrown 171 IP prior in a season, so it’s not as ridiculous as it sounds.  Since he hasn’t thrown more than 76 1/3 IP in any year since 2011, it’s also not completely not absurd.  Double negatives be damned!  Pineda’s slider is a lights out pitch, and not just because the ball looks pitch black with all the pine tar slopped on it.  His fastball (92-ish MPH) isn’t awful and I could easily see a 8+ K/9 and 2+ BB/9.  That puts him in the 2.95-3.50 ERA range with 160 Ks.  Why I really want to scarf him up is due to his upside.  There was a reason why he was once a top 5 arm in the minors.  2015 Projections:  10-9/3.42/1.12/151

 
  1. Snootie McAllister says:
    (link)

    Great rankings as usual.

    Are there any websites where you can currently draft? The gates haven’t quite opened yet at my usual spots and I’m feigning for drafts like Nixon.

      • Ryan says:
        (link)

        Yahoo starts on the 31st, I believe.

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Snootie McAllister: I heard CBS…not positive though

    • Dawtcommish says:
      (link)

      @Snootie McAllister:

      If you purchase the commish package on Sportsline, you can tweak the settings to start your draft immediately.

  2. murray says:
    (link)

    Are you waiting for shields to sign, or do you not think he will be a top 40 starter?

    • Stav says:
      (link)

      @murray:

      know he is coming off injury, but still surprised not to see richards in the top 35ish.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @murray: I’m not waiting for him to sign

  3. Kid A says:
    (link)

    These articles are just (great). They are literally (un)exhausting to read. I may have to (not) go to one of the 3000 other sites that offer a ranking of fantasy baseball players.

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Kid A: Ha …Nice

    • PK says:
      (link)

      @Kid A: How many times did you hit refresh waiting for the article to post so you could be the first one to troll comment?

      • Kid A says:
        (link)

        @PK:

        When you draw lines through words I get confused.
        When I get confused I run as fast as I can.
        When I run as fast as I can I aim for brick walls.
        Now I have a boo-boo.
        I hope you’re happy.

        • PK says:
          (link)

          @Kid A: A commercial told me you could have prevented all of this by getting DirecTV.

    • Wake Up says:
      (link)

      @Kid A: Ha! I knew it was you the whole time!
      Don’t even try to kiss me!

      • JeF With 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Wake Up: WAKE UP!!!!!!!

      • Kid A says:
        (link)

        @Wake Up: Pucker up, you sexy sonuvabitch.

    • nick the dick says:
      (link)

      @Kid A: I’m just here for the fake vomit. Maybe a lava lamp or some flavored body cream while i’m at it….Grey is that you over there??!

  4. Miles says:
    (link)

    Where’s your David Ortiz blurb? he wasn’t in the first basemen article and I don’t see any DH only post.

    • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
      (link)

      @Miles: i’m not sure about blurb for him, but he’s nowhere yet since to make these lists you have to qualify for position elsewhere than on just yahoo, Ortiz only is non DH there. Either way, I believe Grey said he’d be around pocket full of Posey’s spot there (12th)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Miles: He’ll be in the top 100

  5. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    Phil UGHes ranked above Darvish or Wainwright, I think Ive seen everything now. Only the devil is next.

    Great scott!

    • Fastpitch says:
      (link)

      @Swfcdan: it’s simple. just draft Yu or Waino when it’s your turn. That saves the other guys for me!

      • dem ribbies says:
        (link)

        @Fastpitch: Lol, ya. Yu, Waino, Greinke, Cueto, all guys who are going to fetch top 15 money in auction legaues. Love introducing guys like this and biding them up feverishly to like $15 and watching the ‘winner’ walk away with $25+ fewer bullets.

  6. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    DeGrom decent value at $7 this year? Well at least some value…

    • james says:
      (link)

      @Swfcdan:

      it is a solid buy at that level, but he is an 8-12 dollar guy

  7. Tigres says:
    (link)

    Thanks, Grey. Top 40 SP is like a reward for reading through the entire list of catchers.

    Salazar: great stuff, but has burned (burnt? why can’t I spell?) us before. And unlike the other top 40 SPs, not guaranteed to start the season in the rotation – Bauer, Floyd, House also in the mix. I would draft him but prob not until very last rd.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Tigres: Salazar will be in the rotation

  8. Prettay, Prettay, Prettaaay, Prettay Good says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    I find myself faced with a big life decision (beyond deciding whether it is too soon to invest in a Byron Buxton tramp stamp) and came to the only person I trust for such things.

    I can keep both Marcus Stroman and Matt Shoemaker for $1 for next year (and up to 3 years in total). I was waiting for you to rank Stroman in the top 20 and then I could give you a virtual high five you and keep him. Now I see Shoemaker ranked where I expected Stroman, and I am lost and confused. Based on your rankings, Shoemaker is the guy to keep, but come on, where is the sex appeal?

    What would you do?

  9. Ante GALIC says:
    (link)

    Grey!

    I REALLY knew that this SP list would get better as we move along.

    A. This is really interesting read as good as late 80s Penthouse forum (remember the pocket-sized magazine with only stories?).

    B. I could seriously live in this 21 to 40 group and easily win fantasy this year.

    C. Need to stay vigilant of injury reports.

    D. Saw what Dyson signed for (1.225 mil) and told my ten-year old to immediately drop his books and start training for baseball.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
      (link)

      @Ante GALIC: A. of course we remember, they fit easier in our pockets for traveling fun. D. Sadly, your 10 year old will never be fast as the 4th fastest baseball player currently (at least pretty likely)

  10. keeper question says:
    (link)

    That’s a lot of love for Phil Hughes! Last year I grabbed him for a buck at the end of our auction (keeper cost of $4) So now I think I migut keep him, would you think I might keep him though? If so which guy should I throw back the the player pool?

    Rizzo $15
    Polanco $3
    R Castillo $3

    Let’s face it, I’m keeping Rizzo, but what about the other two unknowns?

  11. Schwab says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,
    Keeper league 8 teams H2H points.
    Would you trade Waino, Paxton & Sano For Felix? If so, do you consider it close?
    Thanks.

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Schwab: Id take Felix

    • jay says:
      (link)

      @Schwab: that’s too rich for me

      • JeF With 1 F says:
        (link)

        @jay: Really??…what is he losing…waino is a shell of himself…Paxton..Eh…Sanowho knows if he even plays this year…Take the king

        • JeF With 1 F says:
          (link)

          @JeF With 1 F: Not to mention its only 8 teams…so paxton and sano should be easy to replace

          • Jay says:
            (link)

            @JeF With 1 F: yeah you’re right. I didn’t pick up on the 8 teamer. every comment I read automatically assumes my league settings in my head.

            Agreed on Waino too. I saw that at the beginning of last year and was able to turn waino Edwin and dread pirate into Trout and Goldy. didn’t work out for last season as much as i’d hope but at least it’s a keeper!

    • Hawk says:
      (link)

      @Schwab:

      8 team leagues are rosters full of top tier talent. This is exactly the right kind of trade to make – one quality guy (Waino) and two lottery tickets for a top talent.

      Go get Felix, don’t think twice.

    • Baezaworldseries says:
      (link)

      @Schwab: F-Her all day. Then, hurry up and trade for King Felix.

  12. Powerslave says:
    (link)

    by throwing 60% breaking pitches, McHugh takes a nose dive into Dr. Andrews Office…., another bet…

  13. KCC26 says:
    (link)

    It’s probably a coin flip, but what do you think is a greater value in a keeper league? Wood as a 11th rounder or Stroman as an 18th rounder? Thanks!

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @KCC26: Stroman

  14. David says:
    (link)

    Love your articles and insight, thanks. 12 team 7×7 (obp, slg; qs, hlds). Keep 6 as long as you want but has to be at least 2 pitchers and 2 hitters. Which 6 do I keep from: Braun, Rizzo, Brantley, Puig, Pederson, Marte. Pitchers are: Price, MadBum, Carrasco, Cobb, Harvey.

    Thanks.

    • Hawk says:
      (link)

      @David:

      Rizzo, Puig, MadBum, Price

      If you subbed in Brantley or Marte for Puig, that’d work too

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @David: Thanks! Agree with Hawk

  15. Lville Jim says:
    (link)

    I see your uncle Joel came out of the closet yesterday. A male Broadway performer gay, shocking.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Lville Jim: He’s mad at my mom, taking it out on me

  16. Brian says:
    (link)

    Thanks for these. I’m curious how being in an NL-Only League affects strategy. Does it mean it might be worth ponying up for a Scherzer or Strasburg or would you still avoid that tier and target someone from this range as a number one?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Brian: You need a number one in NL-Only, they’re usually auction drafts, so I’d be more interested in the price I was getting them at… I wouldn’t go over $30

  17. Alcibiades Escobar says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Pick 5 please. 10 team H2H, keep forever. Avg. and OBP:

    Carlos Gomez
    J. Upton
    Adam Jones
    E5
    Soler
    Altuve
    Kluber

    I was thinking Kluber as my 5th guy, but sweet Jesus (Montero) pitching is deep. Hate to throw Klubes back into the pile, but I want all of the #20-#40 starters. What say you?

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Alcibiades Escobar: Gomez, Upton, Jones, Altuve, Kluber

    • Catcher Fever says:
      (link)

      @Alcibiades Escobar: Grey would probably say the first 4 + Altuve (the bats). I’d go with Gomez, A.Jones, Encarnacion, Altuve and Kluber. Corner infielders are imperative, some OF will slip so you don’t need to have 3 this minute, plus I just wouldn’t take a Padre hitter that early.

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Catcher Fever: to reiterate, last year’s ATL wasn’t much better than last year’s SD. ATL’s park also isn’t that much better than SD’s for hitters, AND NL East is worse for hitting than NL West, people have continued to shit on SD compared to ATL when mentioning Upton’s supposed lack of value. Upton had his first consistent season in 3-4 years last year, and now is on better offense than last year.

      • Alcibiades Escobar says:
        (link)

        Thanks Grey. Thanks Catcher, JeF!

  18. Del Griffith says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    I know you love you some upside, but I think you’re doing exactly what you said about Lance Lynn.
    ” Lynn is one of the reasons why these recaps are so important. No one thinks Lynn was a top 20 starter (or Roark or Ross or Hughes). That’s how I ended up ranking Teheran so high in 2014. He was great in 2013, ranking in the top 22 starters. It’s just no one realized it like how no one will next year with Lynn and et al. Wanna make a bet? Lynn and others I just mentioned will be completely undervalued next year, even though they’ve already proven to be solid.” And that’s me copy and pasting you!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Del Griffith: Yeah, lots of guys I tried to get in here… Not to mention, in the big picture the guy ranked 40th overall and 50th overall there’s maybe a round separating them in the top 400

  19. Lville Jim says:
    (link)

    Filled out my starting pitching in an all keeper no values attached league off the waiver wire last year. My team at seasons end included Duffy, Hahn, Hughes, Hutchison, Roark, Shoemaker, and DeGrom. If it were only as easy to pull bats off the scrap heap as it was pitching.

  20. PK says:
    (link)

    This post makes me happy.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @PK: Thanks!

  21. JeF With 1 F says:
    (link)

    I call this Tier…Most of my rotation

  22. nick says:
    (link)

    Grey, Great stuff as always. Can you help? Keeper questions. 4 keepers 10 team league 10×10, auction draft. Which 4 do you like?

    C. Gomez $18
    N. Arenado $8
    J. Soler $5
    K. Wong $5
    J. Altuve $15
    J. Arrieta $5
    J. Samardzija $11

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @nick: Arenado, Wong, Gomez, Arrieta

  23. Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
    (link)

    looks like we’re gonna have at least 2 of degrom/shoemaker/hughes/fiers/wheeler on about 80% of all rosters this year, likely wood almost as frequent. Liriano probably on nearly the same amount as last year, but not as a #2 as much.

  24. Wilson says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey, enjoy your words as always. Appreciate.

    In a forever keeper league, i am hesitant to keep Kershaw or Abreu.
    Kershaw could be the greatest pitcher in following years. I can even image he will join HOF after twenty years. So it feels good to own Kershaw.
    Abreu was good last year. But .. can he be the top 1B for following years? I am not sure. Maybe it’s because he only got one year proven.

    In a forever keeper league, Keep Kershaw or Abreu? Thanks.

    • Hawk says:
      (link)

      @Wilson:

      Kershaw

      • Wilson says:
        (link)

        @Hawk: thanks for your answer.

        Grey’s answer was Abreu without forever keeper info.
        So, I am double confirming the keeper decision making.

        Getting Grey’s thoughts. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Wilson: I’d go with the bat, but number of teams is most important info

      • Wilson says:
        (link)

        @Grey: It’s a shallow league (10 teams).
        So is Grey’s answer Abreu? And, will Abreu be a reliable top one or two first baseman in following years? Thoughts appreciated.