I already went over my Aaron Sanchez fantasy for 2015 and now it’s Drew Hutchison‘s turn.  Marcus Stroman might be next.  I’m a little in love with all the young pitchers in Canada.  Maple Leaf Life!  That’s what my so-very-not-gangster chest tattoo says.  “Hey, what’s up Hologram Tupac, you’re Thug Life and I’m Maple Leaf Life, you wanna play pinball?”  That’s me trying to hang out with Hologram Tupac.  Why is there not a hologram for every dead celebrity?  Did the world drop the ball here?  It’s been years since a good dead celebrity hologram showed up.  There should be one for every dead celebrity.  “Hey, ma, I want you to meet my girlfriend, Hologram Dana Plato.”  Okay, so I want every young Blue Jays pitcher, but that’s for the short-term.  Not in keepers.  For the long term, I think Toronto as an organization is taking classes from Dusty Baker.  Hutchison went from 57 IP in 2013 in the minors after returning from Tommy John (the surgery, not the man) to 184 2/3 IP in the majors.  Maybe the Jays bought two surgeries up front at a discounted rate and want to make sure they get to use them.  So, in a few years, Dwayne Murphy might be trying to twirl Hutchison’s noodle arm on his fork, but for 2015 I think we should be okay.  Even if we’re not, he should come at a cheap enough price in redraft leagues that he’s going to be worth the gamble.  Anyway, what can we expect of Drew Hutchison for 2015 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Last year, he had a 4.48 ERA and… Bleh, what are we doing talking about this guy?  That’s you talking to the other guys in your fantasy league, right before you draft Hutchison.  You sly fox!  A 4.48 ERA makes everything look ugly.  Hard to put a good spin on that but it’s not impossible.  It’s not quite as bad as the caveat “causes diarrhea.”  Olestra’s a fat substitute that adds no fat — terrific, wonderful, stupendous! — it also causes diarrhea.  Okay, now I want to eat fat.  You can explain away some of the 4.48 ERA.  His FIP was 3.85 because of a lack of men he left on base and other factors.  Those other factors require one to understand FIP.  Basically, a single, double, home run scores three runs, right? (Yes, it does, I’m not trying to trick you.)  But a home run, single and double could only score one run if it was a slow hitter who singled.  Though those (stutterer!) are the exact same things, just in a different order.  Those are the other factors.  So, Hutchison’s FIP is telling us that he had crizzappy luck with the sequence of events in his pitching.  So, all things being equal, Hutchison was a high-3 ERA pitcher last year.  That alone doesn’t let the bass groove, but he also throws a 92 MPH fastball with a 9 K/9.  Now we’re talking!  Hutchison was once a highly regarded prospect due to his stuff, and after surgery depleted that, he looked like he got it back last year.  There’s no reason to think the Blue Jays won’t allow him to throw a full season either, after he nearly did that last year.  For 2015, I’ll give him the projections of 13-9/3.72/1.24/197.  Now if you’ll excuse me, I have a lunch date with Hologram Anna Nicole Smith.

 
  1. joe gaynes says:
    (link)

    Buenos Dias señor Grey,

    Request an assist por favor, need to keep 4.

    Kershaw
    Abreu
    Brantley
    Dickerson (CO)
    Dozier
    Marte
    Blackmon
    CarGon
    Pujols
    Arenado
    Arrieta
    Teheran

    I’m thinking Abreu, Brantley, Kershaw, and either Dickerson/Marte/Dozier.

    Thanks!

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @joe gaynes: If round doesnt matter im keeping Abreu Kershaw, Brantley, Arenado.

      • joe gaynes says:
        (link)

        @JeF With 1 F:

        Round doesn’t matter…Arenado? Interesting…

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: call me crazy, but in a keeper with no limits, I would have a hard time deciding between Brantley and Dickerson.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I’d consider Dickerson strongly

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Grey: I just looked and they only have a two year difference in age. But with Brantley we have a longer track record which helps to work for and against him. The HR/FB jump on brantley was almost double, yet with no park factors had similar either home or away. Dickerson had a ridiculous HR/FB (19.5%) and a higher ISO. The ISO split on Dickerson is reeeeeeedonculous (.321 to .178) . Damn, I better stop before I talk myself out of targeting either one of these guys. I like the .333 BABIP by Brantley as being more sustainable than the .356 for Dickerson. Funny the wOBA was almost the same for both. this is getting too nerdy nerd. I need some stuffin muffins to get me back to reality.

          • joe gaynes says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Curious, why so much love for Arenado?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              My rankings come out next week

              • AdamH says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Instant pants tent.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Ha!

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @joe gaynes: how long can you keep?

      • joe gaynes says:
        (link)

        @J-FOH:

        No limit

  2. Charles says:
    (link)

    Anyone else getting an app pop-up every time they visit the site now? Maybe it’s just my ancient iPhone 4, but it’s annoying. I hope it’s generating enough revenue for Grey and Rudy to make up for the decrease in user experience. Still the best site by a wide margin.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Charles: I’m getting it too… I’ll look into it… Sorry…

  3. Shaggy says:
    (link)

    Yikes, once again we agree! I have Hutch pretty high on my target list. But you can’t really call Stroman a sleeper, can you?

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @Shaggy: depends who you are playing against… if he exceeds his adp by a significant amount then is he a sleeper?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Shaggy: Agree with JFOH

  4. Bodacious Taters says:
    (link)

    Selfish keeper question (5×5 AL Rotisserie where offensive studs go for > $40):
    E5 @ $29 -or- V-Mart @ $14 (non-walk, non-JambaJuice year scares me) . . . Tanks

  5. brett says:
    (link)

    Good Morning Grey. Thanks for your tireless work this offseason.
    I have a question about my team ( roto 5 x 5 dynasty with 11 position players, 8 pitchers and an 11 man bench ).
    I think my most obvious need is a catcher better than Jaso. I was contemplating trying to trade Ervin Santana, Crisp, Cuddyer or even Werth to try to upgrade the position. I wouldn’t mind another strong starter or closer but it seems that guys emerge as the season progresses & if you are smart/attentive/lucky/all 3 you can get pitching off the waiver wire.
    I generally don’t like to trade hitting for pitching.
    So what do you think of my plan to trade one of those 4 guys for a catcher then sit tight until the season starts?

    C Jaso
    1B V Mart
    2B Rendon
    SS Zobrist
    3B Miguel Cabrera
    IF Jose Bautista
    OF Stanton
    OF Marte
    OF Pence
    Ut Werth
    Ut Wong
    BN Rajai Davis
    BN Carl Crawford
    BN Josh Harrison
    BN Cuddyer
    BN Coco Crisp
    SP Kluber
    SP Wainwright
    SP Alex Wood
    SP Gray
    SP Ian Kennedy
    SP Danny Santana
    SP Ervin Santana
    RP Benoit
    RP Casilla
    RP Wade Davis
    RP Andrew Miller
    RP McGee
    RP Qualls
    RP Aaron Sanchez

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @brett: Depends on how much of an upgrade you can get at catcher…I wouldnt worry too much about catcher…that position changes all the time throughout the season

      • JeF With 1 F says:
        (link)

        @JeF With 1 F: The guys you mentioned are tradeable though

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @brett: No problem…. I agree with F

      • brett says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thanks guys.

  6. justin says:
    (link)

    I am in need of a SS, and have an offer on the table.

    My Gio Gonzalez and Tyson Ross for his Andrus, Aramis Ramirez, Shields, Liriano.

    I also have an offer of Aramis and Andrus for just Ross.

    Currently need a SS (have brandon crawford, yuck!) and also no 3b since miggy moved over to 1st.

    What deal is better, if either?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @justin: These are horrible trades

  7. Swaggy P says:
    (link)

    Where should we be targeting Hutch in a 10-team standard league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Swaggy P: A little after 100 overall likely

  8. Clint says:
    (link)

    This brings up a subject I don’t believe I’ve sifted through the Grey tea leaves on for a general rule of thumb (if there is one) on your stance of guys returning from Tommy John surgery. I’ve always avoided them unless it’s been a good 1.5-2 years or so since their surgery and even then I’m squeamish considering the velocity changes aren’t consistently good for guys that have it (urban myths claim guys throw harder after, right?). With guys like Hutchison removed from it, AJ Griffin, J-Fer, Medlen, and a slew of others returning from it in the carnage that was 2013 for TJ’s, is there anything we can take from it when putting together draft boards for 2015, i.e. do not draft ’em at all or otherwise? Or is it merely case by case rolls of the dice?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Clint: The guys you mentioned need another 6 months so they’re not draftable in redraft leagues…

  9. Joebob says:
    (link)

    Speaking of sleepers…what are your thoughts on Jake Lamb and Darin Ruf in 10 team NL only? Standard cbs format. Auction. 15 keepers. 5 in reserve. Anything there with either of these guys? I have em at price of 3 and 4 respectively. Thanks a lot, in advance! Cheers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Joebob: Neither have a job right now, making those prices a tad high

  10. Joe says:
    (link)

    Getting my keepers in order. I’m pretty set on Cutch round 1, Tulo round 2, Grande Dolor round 7, and Altuve round 8. I can keep one more.

    My options are Longo round 3, Sonny round 11, Tyson Ross round 12, Fat Prince round 12, Calhoun round 12, or Choo round 12.

    I’m leaning to Sonny or Ross and can’t decide between those two with Prince in contention. Also, no CI position and only one Util, so if I keep Prince, he has to play at Util and then I’m somewhat limited while drafting. I think each of those three present the best value. Thoughts? Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ross

      • Joe says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

    • Joe says:
      (link)

      @Joe: 12 team roto league with standard 5 x 5 with the exception of QS instead of W and may be switching from Avg to OBP depending on league vote.

  11. SwaggerJackers says:
    (link)

    @Grey: In a 12 team keep forever OBP H2H league, pick three:

    Goldy
    Stanton
    Abreu
    Rizzo

    Basically, could Rizzo be a better long term play than Goldy or Abreu?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Goldy, Abreu, Stanton

  12. El Famous Burrito says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    Upcoming pick in our first year player & int’l draft. Deep Dynasty. 16-T, over 1000 players kept.

    Would you go for a guy who has a nearly-guaranteed job like Yasmany Tomas or Rusney Castillo, or take a chance on the upside of a kid like Yoan Moncada?

    I’m not likely to be in the playoff hunt this year, but 2016 and beyond is possible.

  13. Joeg414 says:
    (link)

    So, you like Yasmany Tomas over Rusney Castillo ? And Solar over both? 6×6 mixed roto.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Joeg414: Yasmany, Rusney, Soler for this year

  14. Gus says:
    (link)

    Going after Stanton in a limited keeper league (4 batters, 2 pitchers) and have been told price would be my J Abreu and Strasburg. That would leave me with Stanton, Harper, Cano, Tulo as my batters and Darvish and either Zimmerman/Cobb/Latos as my pitchers.

    I’m thinking the price is a little too high, but if I could get a decent draft pick upgrade, would you do it? I could also flip Tulo for a strong pitcher and go with Springer, Bryant or Lucroy as my 4th bat. Thanks in advance!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Too high… Tulo would need to get flipped for a very strong pitcher, a top 5 arm

  15. donkeycornelius says:
    (link)

    I had lunch with holla gram Gwen Stefani. At a Japanese restaurant, no one understood.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Did you order hologram bananas?

      • Hondo says:
        (link)

        @Grey: If Scosia were slightly more retarded and had a stutter that sounds like something he’d say to his grandmother as the internal Italian -American conflict raged.

        • Hondo says:
          (link)

          @Hondo: Scioscia,I meant Scioscia.Where’s the edit button?Now who’s the retard(blushes)?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Hehe

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          HA! Wow…

  16. royce! says:
    (link)

    I don’t spend too much time thinking about the HOF or how HOF voters became such, but shouldn’t voting for Troy Percival or Darin Erstad disqualify someone from ever having their vote counted again? I feel like those votes are worse than felonies, which generally bar someone from voting…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      But Darin Erstad made a great catch once!

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: and was an all American punter for Nebraska….punter is an American football position

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Punter sounds like a British or Australian curse…

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: oh no, me mum got a case of the punters

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I smell a conversation heading towards discussing Cougars

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Grey: can you smell when a cougar has a case of the punters?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Smells like tartar sauce… Put that on Razzbao!

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: is that a glossary term on the Razzbao?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Not yet, but I’m all ears

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: wait, now you’re editing my food site?

                    Punter -a cougar condition that results in smells that are very similar to tartar sauce and a bull legged walk.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Perfect!

  17. WiPo says:
    (link)

    Draft question – I have the 1st pick in a 16 team points dynasty league that is starting soon (obviously taking Trout). We can only roster a max of 8 SP. I generally like to wait to draft a SP, but should I rethink that in a league with this setup? I was going to wait until round 5 or 6 to take one.. is this too late?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You should take an SP around pick 50… 5th or 6th round is too late in that deep of a league…

      • WiPo says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I have the 33rd overall pick (round 3) and 64th pick (round 4). Would you feel more comfortable taking a pitcher in the 3rd then?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Depends how the draft goes… You need a number one, think top 15 SP… If lots are gone, you might have to take one at 33…I’d prefer 64 if possible…

          • WiPo says:
            (link)

            @Grey:
            Thanks for the advice!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              No problem

  18. james says:
    (link)

    in a new dynasty, i used most of my middle round picks (9-16) on starting pitching instead of taking anyone earlier. Basically, in a 12 team league is this a competative rotation:
    Sonny Gray, Cole Hamels, Tanaka, Ross, Stoman, Salazar, Walker.

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @james: Thats a ton of question marks in that rotation, your most likely going to have to make changes on the fly.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, staff looks more than fine

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @james: lots of high ceiling upside for long term play. I like Hamels as a value ace.

  19. JeF With 1 F says:
    (link)

    Sup Girl

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sup, F!

  20. donkeycornelius says:
    (link)

    Hutch, like this deep fried banana that I am trying not to choke on, is absolutely lubricious.!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha

    • Julio White says:
      (link)

      @donkeycornelius: your smell reminds me of someone.

      • donkeycornelius says:
        (link)

        @Julio White: Not sure. I’m wearing Cool water by Two Holes.

  21. Ron says:
    (link)

    James Paxton or Drew Hutchison in 2015? Career? Seems like Paxton has the higher floor but Hutch has the higher ceiling.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hutchison

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sorry, that’s Hutch for this year and future

  22. Jon says:
    (link)

    Which of these (if any) would you offer for Danny Salazar in a keeper?

    Polanco, Joc Pederson, Mookie, Neil Walker, Alcantara

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Walker, Mookie, Arismendy in that order

      • Jon says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  23. Jon says:
    (link)

    Would you deal Cashner for Kipnis?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sure

  24. alcohol abuser says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    I am letting out the inseam in all of my pants in anticipation of your rankings next week.

    In a 12 keeper with OBP instead of AVG, do you like Arenado or Wong more?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Arenado

  25. Ryan Maz says:
    (link)

    Need to keep 3 in auction league. $260 cap.

    JD Martinez $0
    George Springer $12
    Dee Gordon $1
    Nolan Arenado $12

    Who should I let go? I’m thinking i have to keep JD and Dee given their keeper price. But who to let go? Springer or Arenado?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Arenado, Gordon, Springer

  26. Bterry says:
    (link)

    Frazier, reyes, b ham, or dickerson for final keeper in 12 team keep 8 forever with no penelty league. Normal scoring. Other 7keepers are miggy tulo hanram rizzo cutch harper giancarlo. Which of those four would you keep or would you trade for a pitcher? (strasburg,klubler, darvish, possibly sale and felix avail)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Dickerson… I wouldn’t trade for a pitcher…

      • Bterry says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thanks. Some people have me worried about dickersons playing time. Is that still a worry with cuddyer gone? Do you see a stubbs platoon?

        • Bterry says:
          (link)

          @Bterry: for the record. A stubby dick platoon would really kill me if b ham goes for 100 sb like i was talkin smack for last year.

  27. nick the dick says:
    (link)

    You watch TC tonight?

Comments are closed.