This year we don’t have SAGNOF we have SSSAGNOF. That’s Shortened Season SAGNOF, baby! I just started breakdancing after screaming baby. What, is this a lost episode of Ally McBeal? ‘Member that show? I don’t, because I didn’t ever watch crap TV shows. Get your taste out yo’ ass! Also, that popsicle stick. That vacuum cord. That microwaved burrito. How many things do you have in your butt? As mentioned the other day in my Jarrod Dyson 60-game sleeper, steals might be the most predictable stat we have this year. Have Sprint Speed, will travel from 1st to 2nd. With runs and RBIs, it’s going to come down to lineup placement. With home runs, it’s going to come down to–Well, just go read the article. With steals, it’s gonna be as easy to measure as clicking that little button on the top of your stopwatch. By the by, what if the person pressing the clock button is slow, doesn’t that change the clocked time by a lot? Has anyone ever said runners’ times pre-digital age are all hogwash because it depended on the old man in black & white with the monocle pressing a stopwatch button? Did I just uncover some truth that everyone already knew but me? Yes? Cool. Our 2020 fantasy baseball rankings have been updated to a 60-game season. So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for steals?
1. Sprint Speed: There’s been some chatter made of which is better: Sprint Speed or Time-to-First. A case was made that Time-to-First helps managers decide whether or not to allow someone to steal, so it’s better for us too. Without the manager’s approval, there are no steals. Of course, it also matters what the pitcher-catcher combo is, pop times, and pitcher-to-plate time. It all matters to a certain extent, but for our purposes — or porpoises if dolphins have taken over by the time you’re reading this — we don’t need to tread into those weeds for a 60-game season. Okay, wanna go in the weeds a little? I’m not sure how much I buy Time-to-First is better. A guy on 1st, getting a ten-foot lead and reading pitchers is a totally different skill than hitting and running to first. If managers use Time-to-First to decide who should run, then, okay, sure, whatever. But it’s not like there’s huge disparities. Is Altuve faster for Time-to-First than Sprint Speed? Yes, by a lot actually. Does that mean he will steal more? I don’t see how it has anything to do with it. Okay, back to first point, Sprint Speed is The List — l’chaim — for Steals. You can’t fake fast.
2. 1st Half Leaders in Steals: For the other posts about 60-game strategy, I focused mostly on August and September. For steals, I think fresh legs are a thing, and why I’m looking at 1st half steals from last year. (Another reason why I wrote that post about Jarrod Dyson the other day.) Also, unlike other category strategy posts, I removed at-bat qualifiers. I want guys who can steal 15+ bags in the fewest number of at-bats. Even platoons don’t bother me if a guy is going to steal when he’s playing. Steals will come in bunches and if you get a guy stealing, say, a dozen steals in the month of August, you’re gonna walk away with that category. Mallex sounds like Maalox for good reason, but if he steals 25 bags in 60 games, let’s turn this mutha out. Compilers are going to be wretched to roster this year, and I will likely do another post just about that, but think about 60-game year from Andrelton Simmons. 5 HRs, 7 SBs? That’s gonna be a no from me, dawg.
3. OBP is Poop: I mean, OBP matters if you’re in an OBP league, but for steals? The top steals guys from last year’s 1st half is a complete hodgepodge of gross OBPs. There’s only one guy (Yelich) above .350 OBP. You don’t love looking at only the 1st half and want the full season picture? Only three guys from the top 10 have .350+ OBP. As you move further down the list, OBP is as inexact. Maybe that’s why we don’t have great steals years anymore in MLB, because the fast guys also happen to be guys who don’t take a walk. As the license plates in Aruba say, “There is no Kokomo.” What does that have to do with anything? Nothing, just like OBP for steals.
In summation: To misquote the girl in The Fresh Prince parents’ Porsche, “Run fast, speed turns me on.” By the way, the mom from Parents Just Don’t Understand video doesn’t look like she’d own a Porsche. She looks like a soccer mom van all the way. Steals are simple: guys who can steal, due to their speed, are going to be category movers in a 60-game season. It’s really that simple.
Here’s a few names that stood out to me as going late (after 100 overall) and could surprise with 15+ steals in a 60-game season:
Delino DeShields (DeShizz!)
Grey hyping Delino… baseball is truly back!!!
Hey Grey. Long time.
Have 2 free agency pick ups to ask about.
1) Luis Severino was placed on IL? Would you pick up Wacha, or Wainright?
2) I’m thinking about dropping Jurickson Profar. Would you drop him for one of these guys: Rpbinson Cano or Hanser Alberto.
Hey, Scott, good to see you
had a questiuon about the projections on players. what do each slash mean going left to right. is it GP/hr/rbi/avg/sb?
Random question: thoughts on taking Jordan Hicks for free vs drafting Gallegos in a Save and hold league? Or both?
I suppose the question really should read: do you see Hicks providing any value this year in a sv + h league haha
Not especially on Hicks
That has to be the first time a person has ever misquoted a 12 year-old runaway! Good job Grey!
HAHA, you’re welcome
Edwin Diaz or Liam?
Luzardo or Montas?
In a S+H league would you trust Diaz or Will Smith more?
Tried to trade for Liam, but didn’t bite.
Hey Grey – in a weekly 12 teamer are you still holding a guy like Mateo in reserve, or not likely to be a someone that’s going to contribute enough in that sort of league format, given that he seems to be 3rd on the depth chart there…
Also, totally thought that DH would be a boon for Hilliard in COL, but after listening to the pod I’m with you that it sounds like Col will find a way to screw over anyone but Desmond and Murphy!
Nah, forget Mateo
Totally on Colorado, Bud Black will find a way
Thanks Grey! One other random one for ya…
I’m sure you’ll talk more next week about RPs etc, but does a guy like Stripling jump up for you as a sneaky W bet knowing that many SPs will probably have short outings for the first month?
I think Stripling moves up a bit, still barely rosterable in shallower leagues
Grey, 12 team roto. What is your strategy for starting pitching as far as taking a pitcher around pick 55-60? Is everything different now because of only 60 games?
I will go over next week, but I think you need 3 SPs vs. 6 and all in the top 3 of their team…There might not be 4th and 5th starters
14 team H2H points league.
I have Carson Kelly as my catcher.
Francisco Mejia is on waivers.
Worth swapping for Mejia? Thinking he might get more bats with the DH.
Meh, sure, you can try it, think it’s a push tho
Javier Baez and Matt Olson for Yelich – too much for Yelich or fair?
either this is at least 3 different people, but it sure looks like this guy from at least 3 different names has asked this same one that many times in less than 2 weeks.
Woodruff or Lynn in a QS league for counting stats and ratios?
Do you trust Verlander this season (injuries) and would take him over Corbin or Castillo?
I don’t, and would not
Amed Rosario over/under on 15 steals in 60 games?
Under, but close
In a 12 team roto auction keeper with only two bench spots, which two of these pitchers would you want to roster: Mitch Keller, MacKenzie Gore, Freddy Peralta, Dustin May and Nate Pearson?
Obviously, it would be great to win this year but also want to consider I can keep a player for 3 years but only 8 keepers per year. Thanks and thanks for keeping baseball on our minds these last 3 months.
Hmm…Tough call, Keller, Pearson for right now
Who is number 3?
@Grey: Any chance Wander Franco makes an impact early enough in this 60 game season to justify holding him in a 12 team league? Trying to decide if I should cut him loose for guys that will actually play.
Prolly not, but worth a stash https://razzball.com/dart-throws-wander-franco/
Wander Franco to be on 60 man roster. We aren’t gonna see him this year (barring injury)… right?
You just beat me to the punch. Asked the same thing right below this.
My guess is he’s isn’t worth rostering this season because he won’t be given enough (any?) MLB ABs
Prolly not, but worth a stash https://razzball.com/dart-throws-wander-franco/
Interesting. Thanks for the link. Keep 2 league (3 if I win the championship) – keep people 2 rounds earlier than drafted the previous year. Might try to snag him late in hopes of a very nice keeper in 2021
Nice, makes sense
In a S+H league. My RP’s are Nick Anderson, Neris and Rogers.
Would you swap Neris for either Will Smith (RP) or Diego Castillo (SP/RP)?
Also, ain’t nobody droppin star players in dynasty, just cause of a slump.
Nah, dynasty is different game
Manfraud really gonna put a runner on 2B in xtras?!?! Douchecanoe doesn’t even watch baseball, what does he care how long games take. Manfraud needs to go, he hates baseball!
So in extra innings, if that auto 2B runner scores, does that count towards the pitcher’s ERA?
It does not
Yeah, he snuck that rule in for no reason other than as commissioner of baseball he wants less baseball
As diehard baseball fans we should all get a petition together to vote Manfraud out!
Start the petition, I’ll sign
Working on it, keep you posted!
Wondering how real life managers are going to respond to the shortened season? If you take a golden sombrero are you get sit for a week? I imagine they will be quick to try something new if you start out slow, even if you have a track record. Playing (and finding) the hot hand will be key. I expect plenty of turnover in lineups, especially with increased rosters. Letting players battle through slumps will be a failed strategy this year.
They’ll play their main guys every day the players want to play…You don’t sit, say, Jose Abreu bc he’s slumping… NL DHs will be some weird platoons for a lot of teams
Yes, it would be hard to sit Abreau when he is slumping. But I think if you have the guts (especially as fantasy managers) to plug in the next guy looking for the hot streak, it could pay off in such a small sample size of a season. Finding that sweet spot is hard enough in a full season. This year, time is not on our side, and drastic measures should be taken. At least that is my approach going in.
Completely…Everyone except top 50 or so are immediately expendable
Raimel Tapia is a dart throw of mine. I mean, Colorado can’t keep running Ian Desmond out there instead? Bud Black surely will figure that out, right?
I think they can run Desmond out there…Never underestimate Bud Black
Wait until they get Puig
In a shortened season ( and my teams entire bench is pitching ) I feel like I need to dump possibly a couple of pitchers for fill in bench bats ( my 2X utility is also Andujar and Urshela, so worried about playing time).
Drop 2 of Wood, Civale, Keller or J James for
R Nunez, D Carlson, Cespedes, Santander or Teoscar.
Position doesn’t matter.
Thank u! Love the pod and thank you for the EARTHGANG recommendation. Best album I have heard in years.
Earthgang is so damn good! You’re welcome, glad I got some people into them, they’re amazing
Lose Civale, Wood for Teoscar, Santander
They REALLY are. Been recommending them to everyone who will listen regardless if they are asking. Good Outkast/ATL vibes. Awesome. Thanks man. Like your suggestion of Low End Theory for fav hip hop album as well. I think my “Mt Rushmore” is Del Tron 3030/ Aquemini/ MAAD City/ Mirrorland/ Black on Both Sides
That’s not a bad Rushmore at all…I love me some Stankonia too
Nick Madrigal will lead the league in steals!
Ooh, he’s a good call too
Because it’s 2020, this is definitely going to be the year Deshizz realizes his post post post post post hype, right?!
Also, what’s you’re strategy for weekly lineup leagues? Are you looking exclusively for full time AB or would you take a guy like Berti over a more floor guy like Schoop?
Imagine, and then people try to put an asterisk on his MVP year!
I’d lose all compilers in weekly leagues…Berti all the way
Excellent report, loved it to kibbles and bits!
a. I have Mallex so, hopefully he’ll be okay for the short season.
b. Google notified me that someone in Sulawesi, Indonesia tried to hack into my gmail account! If I were a celebrity or something or be worth more than 25K….Ah, what a goof. Gmail stopped him!
c. MLB quote of the day for June 26, 1988
‘Drew is a player that comes along once every 20 years. Not even Barry Bonds can be compared to J.D. Drew.’
Scott Boras. Bonds was really great until the steroid scandal hit and then he was the guy everyone hated. If he’d just NOT taken steroids he would have easily been a first ballot HOF with good statistics, just not Ruthian. He just had to spoil it. Best quote I saw about Barry Lamar Bonds was this one.
‘Bonds was not well liked by his Sun Devil teammates, in part because in the words of longtime coach Jim Brock, he was “rude, inconsiderate and self-centered.” For instance, when he was suspended for breaking curfew, the other players initially voted against his return even though he was easily the best player on the team.’
The best statistics of all-time with a big asterisk over it!
d. Have a nice weekend.
Bonds may have been a D ck but probably one of the greatest all time……….Boras is right he could have done it without the roids………
worst thing i hated about bonds was wearing body armor on his elbow then covering the inner corner of the plate almost every at bat to get outside pitces then complain about getting hit. Chase utley would do the same in clutch situation just to get on base but he took the hit on his bare arm and was happy to be on base.
But how much did you hate JD Drew?
He was worse than bonds because he was hype before he even accomplished anything. LIke bonds or not he delivered.
Drew seemed like he was good at everything but elite at nothing.
A. He could win you the steals category
B. Maybe you’re a celebrity and you don’t know in Indonesia? You put out any albums in last ten years you think failed to connect with an audience that made their way to Indonesia?
C. HAHAHA, that is awesome
D. You too
Delino is life. Delino is love. Visit the dentist with a plaster of paris covering your breath holes.
Kind of bummed that the NFBC canceled the 12 team online leagues. Was really happy with some of my teams in that format. Multiple Lindor, Freeman, Springer, Stanton, Kershaw, Rizzo, Robert, Suarez, Montas, Lynn, Odorizzi, Adell, etc. shares lost to the wind.
At least my Rudy DC league is still active. Can’t wait for Dannys Antana and my one closer to go nuts there.
What’s up with you?
The Dentist is back with an all-new root canal!
I think NFBC was covering its ass from a lot of people who wouldn’t be happy, or at least half the people
I’m kinda excited I only have one closer in some leagues — saves are gonna be a mess
Baseball is back!