MLB: San Francisco Giants-Photo Day

I’ve got to be “bust”ing your chops by suggesting Buster Posey as a first round pick in points leagues, right? First I declare Clayton Kershaw the top overall pick over Mike Trout, and now this? Some of you are probably thinking that I’ve been smoking a bit of the devil’s lettuce with Tim Lincecum while putting together these posts! Well I can assure you, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Although I wouldn’t mind sitting down with Big Time Timmy Jim and seeing if I can figure out what the heck happened to him, as I expected The Freak to anchor my staff for longer than he did…

So I have to admit, I’m a bit torn about this whole Buster Posey conspiracy. I consider myself a man of the numbers, and according to FVARz Posey is ranked 10th ahead of the likes of Josh Donaldson, Adrian Beltre, Robinson Cano, Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmidt. Could I actually draft Posey over any of those players? I don’t know. I want to say “no freaking way”, but at the same time I don’t want to ignore the numbers.

FVARz gives us a players’ position-adjusted fantasy value allowing us to compare players across all positions. For the past few weeks I’ve been consistently saying that in points leagues all we care about is points. So if Edwin Encarnacion is projected to score 454 points, how can I, in my right mind, tell you to draft Buster and his 386 projected points? I’ve gotta stop all the late night partying with Ron Washington and Josh Gordon!

Here’s what it boils down to: Positional battles. Positional what? Sounds like a debate between two or more people that takes place in the bedroom. The war that is fantasy baseball points leagues comes down to the individual positional battles of your starting lineup. The goal is to end up with more points than your opponent and the way you do that is by having players as many positions as possible that score more points. It would be simple if we could just draft all of the top scoring players at each position and be done with it. But that’s not how the fantasy draft usually shakes out. If you are able to accomplish this, please invite me to join your league next year.

Buster Posey is projected to score 386 points. That’s 112 more than the average number of points scored by the top 13 catchers. The difference in points between Posey and the 6th ranked catcher (Evan Gattis) is 114 points. That’s quite the drop off. Let’s take a look at the other infield positions.

Miguel Cabrera leads the way at first base with 495 projected points. That’s 87 more than the average number of points scored by the top 13 first basemen and 74 points more than Albert Pujols, ranked 6th. The Posey-Pujols combination is more than Cabrera combined with any catcher other than Jonathan Lucroy.

How about second base? The top spot at second base varies depending on whether your league rewards a stolen base with 1 or 2 points. Let’s assume 1 point. Yes I know what happens when you assume. I happen to enjoy making an ass of myself. This gives the nod to Robinson Cano with 430 points which is 91 points more than the average and 92 points more than the 6th ranked player (Daniel Murphy). The Posey-Murphy team is more than Cano combined with any catcher other than Lucroy and is a push with Salvador Perez. If you can manage to get your hands on Brian Dozier or Dustin Pedroia to go with Posey, you are looking at a nice points league pair.

And at the hot corner we have Adrian Beltre with 400 points. Well that’s only a few more than Posey himself. Are you saying by drafting Posey I can get third base points at catcher? Where do I sign? The 6th ranked third basemen is Kyle Seager and he’s slated to score 360 points. That’s a difference of 88 points. Now I realize it’s not fair to blindly compare the 6th ranked catcher to the 6th ranked player at another position, but I am just trying to give you some perspective of the points.

We might as well finish what we’ve started. Troy Tulowitzki leads shortstops with 392 projected points. That’s 6 more than Posey. Enough said. Why is catcher such an overlooked position? Why is Buster Posey such a bad investment?

Am I saying that you should draft Buster Posey in the first round. Indeed I am NOT. And here’s why. Luckily for you a lot of fantasy players don’t do quite as much draft prep as they should and often rely on the rankings provided by their league’s site and/or the average draft positions (ADP) based on the many mock drafts leading up to that point. The issue with using ADP is that the majority of the drafts that generated that data are based on 5×5 roto leagues and, in many cases, a players’ value in roto is not the same as it is in points leagues. Especially depending on your league’s scoring system. Sadly many don’t realize or care to realize such important details. And that’s where you gain the advantage. Well I guess you gained the advantage the moment you typed “www.Razzball.com” into your browser of choice, but you get the point.

There are some sites that do allow you filter ADP to head-to-head leagues and if you have access to this data, great. Here’s why. This is where you’ll find data showing you what rounds players are being selected in head-to-head leagues in which the selections are greatly influenced by roto values. In points leagues Giancarlo Stanton isn’t a first rounder. He’s a second rounder, but he is being drafted, on average, with the 6th pick. While I’d love to have him on my team, he won’t be on any of my teams. Or will he? But if I am not willing to draft him in the first round, how is that possible? Maybe I am willing, under the right circumstances. Let’s say I have the 8th pick and Stanton is still there. Out of the players I have ranked ahead of him that are still on the board, perhaps many of them will be still be there by my next pick. Then maybe, just maybe, I hedge my bets and take Stanton. Anyway, hopefully you catch my drift. Knowing the lay of the land and understanding all of the angles is key to draft day success.

Here’s how I suggest you take advantage of all of this. Use my rankings (or your own points-based rankings based on your league’s settings) to determine which round each player should be drafted at if everyone in your league were using that same data. Then look to the interweb to find out where each of those players are actually being drafted and compare the results. Look for players like Posey that have a better points leagues ranking than their going ADP and evaluate drafting them. Let’s continue with Posey as an example. My rankings say he’s a first rounder. His ADP is around 26 which is early 3rd round in 12-team leagues and mid 3rd round in 10-team leagues. He actually seems to be going in the 4th round of a lot of drafts I have been in. So here’s what you do. Consider him for the second round and if you can’t pull the trigger, take him in the 3rd. If you get him in the 3rd you are getting 1st round value two rounds later. This same principle can and should be applied to all players.

Here are few other examples:

Name Round Based on ADP Round Based on Points Ranking
Justin Morneau 14 11
Eric Hosmer 14 10
Adam Eaton 19 10
Ben Revere 14 9

If you can grab any of these players after their “round based on points rankings” then you are getting value for your selection. And I don’t know about you, but I do like me some value.

Keep in mind that this principle works in both directions. I was going to say “goes both ways”, but I knew that would be opening a can of worms that I just opened up anyway. What I mean is that you can use this system to find players that are being drafted too early and do not offer you good value for your pick. George Springer is a player that comes to mind. I’ve got him ranked as a 13th round pick, yet he is going much earlier in the 6th or 7th round. As my 35th ranked outfielder in points leagues, that’s just not a good projected return on your investment. I do like Springer and could see myself using a 10th round pick on him, but sooner than that seems unwise. Just like upsetting a wookie.

As for pitchers, you’re going to have to figure out how you value them compared to hitters. In points leagues I whole heartedly believe that Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer are bonafide first round picks, with David Price, Madison Bumgarner and Stephen Strasburg to follow in the second. How about relievers? My rankings have Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and Greg Holland in the top 15. That’s what the numbers say. Each with an ADP of the about the 6th round, I plan to draft one of them in the 5th round.

Remember, ADP is just a guideline, if your research tells you otherwise and you feel the need to reach a few rounds for guy, not to be confused with giving a guy a reach around, then by all means, reach away. Just know what you are getting yourself into and be prepared to clean up the mess. Good luck.

For those familiar with Streamonator, Hittertron and the other top notch tools provided by Razzball you can now buy a subscription to access these game changing services by clicking “Subscribe Now“. For those not familiar with them, I suggest you find out more about them. When I asked Ferris Bueller what he thought about the subscription options, here’s what he had to say “It is so choice. If you have the means, I highly recommend picking one up.

 

You can find me malamoney on Twitter.

 
  1. al says:
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    Awesome post! Love the points leagues help you’re offering…

    I have the 10th pick tomorrow night in my first 10 team H2H points league! I’ve been doing several mocks but can’t seem to figure out when to fill out certain positions with my back to back picks when it’s my turn. I used your spreadsheet format for our league’s scoring and the biggest differences from your standard format seems to be that batters don’t get penalized and it’s more of a balanced risk/reward with pitchers? I find myself in a lot mocks debating whether or not to grab King Felix/Scherzer and a top positional player like Bautista, Rizzo, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Cano, Puig or A. Jones based on my spreadsheet. Or if Should go back to back hitters and try to get one or two of Kluber, Greinke, Cueto, or Hamels at the end of round 3 and start of round 4. Obviously if Posey is there I’d maybe pick Posey and then one of those pitchers listed. What do you think based on my settings.. We start 1 of each position but 3 OF plus 1 UTIL and 4 SP and 3 RP with 5 bench spots total. Could use some draft advice!

    HIT (+1), RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 1B (+1), 2B (+1), 3B (+2), HR (+3), BB (+1) SB (+1)
    WIN (+3), LOSS (-3), IP (+3), K (+1), BB (-1), SAVE (+3), ER (-2), HIT (-1), NH (+10) PF (+15)

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @al: My suggestion is to take the best starting pitcher and hitter available. If Posey is still there on your next turn around take him and the best starting pitcher there. After that, you’ve got to see what’s left. My strategy is to take the best player available at your positions of need.

      I plugged in your numbers and fixed the issue with Stroman, Wood and Carrasco and here are your top 50. Remember, just because someone is listed here in the top 10 doesn’t mean you MUST pick that player in the first round. The key is to see what his ADP is and adjust accordingly.

      Mike Trout 4.735926975 751.95 OF
      Clayton Kershaw 4.723351547 618.34 SP
      Andrew McCutchen 3.764828356 690.63 OF
      Miguel Cabrera 3.672947553 711.11 1B
      Felix Hernandez 3.662027754 546.92 SP
      Buster Posey 3.590786603 566.77 C,1B
      Max Scherzer 3.500941925 536.08 SP
      Giancarlo Stanton 3.430518313 669.52 OF
      Aroldis Chapman 3.375340655 329.05 RP
      Craig Kimbrel 3.295267145 326.24 RP
      Josh Donaldson 3.173484761 611.38 3B
      Chris Sale 3.130622842 511.16 SP
      Paul Goldschmidt 3.0850021 668.17 1B
      Greg Holland 2.94163289 313.83 RP
      Jose Altuve 2.934565422 635.42 2B
      Jose Bautista 2.917730098 637.14 OF
      Matt Shoemaker 2.892904882 312.12 SP,RP
      Robinson Cano 2.884807148 632.45 2B
      David Price 2.869527084 493.59 SP
      Jose Abreu 2.841690718 650.4 1B
      Stephen Strasburg 2.802655661 489.09 SP
      Anthony Rendon 2.799151848 594.11 2B, 3B
      Madison Bumgarner 2.791213217 488.32 SP
      Yasiel Puig 2.784227793 628.71 OF
      Anthony Rizzo 2.756935656 644.21 1B
      Adam Jones 2.720881504 624.71 OF
      Ian Desmond 2.716803453 570.25 SS
      Jonathan Lucroy 2.711757983 518.27 C
      Corey Kluber 2.71007589 482.86 SP
      Adrian Beltre 2.702263132 589.64 3B
      Freddie Freeman 2.687652843 639.15 1B
      Jose Reyes 2.655264273 567.81 SS
      Evan Longoria 2.504584141 580.52 3B
      Troy Tulowitzki 2.497128758 561.54 SS
      Michael Brantley 2.484599843 609.79 OF
      Matt Carpenter 2.47012037 578.93 3B
      Kyle Seager 2.469036604 578.88 3B
      Ben Zobrist 2.454000891 559.83 2B, SS, OF
      Hunter Pence 2.427904914 606.21 OF
      Edwin Encarnacion 2.374100191 616.25 1B
      Adrian Gonzalez 2.315360415 611.96 1B
      Elvis Andrus 2.254250767 551.91 SS
      Johnny Cueto 2.251189321 451.98 SP
      Jon Lester 2.242421735 451.39 SP
      Ian Kinsler 2.239624946 593.94 2B
      Carlos Gomez 2.187030648 591 OF
      Cole Hamels 2.164405074 446.14 SP
      Ryan Braun 2.146805754 588.46 OF
      Starlin Castro 2.13899091 547.34 SS
      Justin Upton 2.134453228 587.68 OF

      • al says:
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        @malamoney: Thanks a ton! After doing a few mocks with the 10th pick I can consistently get King Feliz or Scherzer in the 1st and then one of Donaldson, Bautista, Rizza. My question is who should I take there between those bats? I tend to take Donaldson hoping to get Posey next round. However in the mocks I’ve done, Posey is usually gone by the 3 or 4th so I end up taking Kluber and Freeman actually. In the 5th and 6th round I grab an elite closer and then I like getting Kinsler there unless you think there’s better value? Next rounds is where I try to get Lucroy if I don’t have Posey and then I grab what usually is my first OF in Heyward. I can get Gordon in the 9th and then in 10th I debate over guys like A. Wood, Betances or even like Pedroia… Actually now that I think about it, maybe I should take another Pitcher (Hamels, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Cobb) in the 5th/6th instead of Kinsler and then target Pedroia in the 10th? Then in the 11th I like getting Uehara and then Zobrist in the 12th! Zobrist is a key piece so I need to keep an on eye on him! Next rounds go like this: 13: OF (Bruce, Melky, etc,, )14: UTIL (Sandoval), 15:SP (Ryu, Kennedy, etc) 16: Hosmer? 17-21: highest ranked Pitchers

        Any other input would be great!

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @al: Bautista. I like Kinsler. Kinsler over those pitchers. However Pedroia in the 10th is a nice trade off to get your Hamels.

          Zobrist is indeed the key!!!

          • al says:
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            @malamoney:Sounds good! My only concern about passing on Donaldson for Bautista is the drop off I’ll have at 3B? I can get Sandoval late consistently so assuming I get Hosmer at good value do you think it’s a good trade off having Pablo at 3B and Hosmer at the UTIL spot? Of course my OF would be improved with Bautista, but in my rankings Donaldson is ahead of Joey Bats … or do you know of any good values to look for at 3B instead or when to target some bases on my current strategy? Draft is in 2 hours!

            • malamoney

              malamoney says:
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              @al: Then go with Donaldson. Hard for me to keep track of everyone’s scoring system. I do like Hosmer considering bis ADP. Outfield is deeper than 3rd.

              • al says:
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                @malamoney: Well that didn’t go as planned! Thoughts?

                Here’s the squad:
                (1) C: Lucroy
                (1) 1B: Freeman
                (1) 2B: Kinsler
                (1) SS: Andrus
                (1) 3B: Donaldson
                (3) OF: A. Gordon, J. Heyward, M. Cabrera
                (1) UT: A. Rendon
                Bench: (Revere)

                (4) SP: Scherzer, Cobb, L. Lynn, P. Hughes
                (3) RP: Chapman, Kimbrel, C. Martinez [SP/RP]
                Bench: (I. Kennedy, C. McHugh, Smyly, Lackey)
                Bench Total: (5)

  2. JimmyBond says:
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    Just after I finished busting the chops of my friend (and co-owner in one league) for having a case of Poseyitis, now I have to send him this and eat crow as it is H2H points league. He replied I have a case of Arenadoitis which is absolutely true, I have that extremely contagious affliction that comes from reading too many posts by Grey.

    PS – Am I missing something here – where is your list of ranked players using this method that you refer to? Is it part of the Razz streaming tools? Thanks!

  3. Pete says:
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    What do you think of Zobrist on the A’s this year for points leagues? I’m getting a round deferential of ~10 rounds which is nuts!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Pete: Zobrist is a guy I will be targeting in my personal points league for sure as his value is much better than his ADP. In a 12-team league I have him valued at a late 3rd round/early 4th round value. His ADP is the 8th round. Grab him in the 6th and thank me later. Plus his position eligibility never hurts.

  4. Jason says:
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    Andrew Heaney was dropped in my 12 team points league. Should I dump Leonys Martin to make the add?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Jason: Depends what the rest of your outfield and pitching staff looks like. Also, Heaney doesn’t officially have the starting spot. At least as far as I know. Both are players with nice potential upside.

      • Jason says:
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        @malamoney:
        OF:Kemp, Marte, Pence, Choo, Meyers, Betts, Martin

        P: Wainright, Harvey, Wacha, Cashner, Holland, Paxton, Eovoldi, Baily, Rodon

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @Jason: How many do you start at each position?

          • Jason says:
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            @malamoney:
            6 pitchers & 3 outfielers (also 1 Utility spot)

            • malamoney

              malamoney says:
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              @Jason: I wouldn’t drop Martin for Heaney unless I knew for certain Heaney had a spot in the rotation. And then I’d still have to think about it. Heaney hasn’t shown much in his time in the Majors last year and now in Spring Training. I’d likely hold. However last year I was a big fan of Heaney and I believe he can win me back.

  5. Rubik's Pube says:
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    I can unequivocally say that I will NEVER own Posey. I think this year could be the year he could be de-throned as the #1 catcher. Lucroy, and Gattis could potentially put up more points than him if they stay healthy and as long as they are getting reps in at OF, 1B, and DH. I can’t help but giggle every time Posey gets taken in the 1st or 2nd round. Maybe I have an above average aversion to Posey, but there is no way in hell can justify taking Posey that early when there are so many other options available at that point in the draft.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Rubik’s Pube: My suggestion is 3rd round. In a league that penalizes for strikeouts, Gattis will never outpoint Posey. Posey will get his share of starts at 1B as well. I might go Salvador Perez and Mesoraco over Gattis.

      • Rubik's Pube says:
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        @malamoney: I’d have to say that I agree with you Malamoney. Gattis does whiff at a remarkable pace. The hype train is pushing Gattis up the charts. Perez is going a few rounds later while putting up almost identical numbers. Posey’s ADP in CBS points leagues is 34 and Lucroy’s is 65. Posey finished 2 points ahead of Lucroy last year and I highly doubt that he comes close to that this year. Posey’s plays half his games in an extreme pitcher’s park surrounded by a pretty awful lineup. Lucroy plays in a hitter’s park, in a lineup with Braun and Gomez, and is going 3 rounds later. I don’t foresee much, if any regression out of Lucroy. Expecting him to hit 50+ doubles again is ludicrous, but I think he’ll come close to replicating last year’s numbers. I just don’t understand people’s obsession with Posey.

        • Rubik's Pube says:
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          @Rubik’s Pube: I meant Lucroy is going a few rounds later

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @Rubik’s Pube: In my league Posey scored 411 points and Lucroy scored 344. That’s a 67 points. Posey outpointed all shortstops. Only one 3rd basemen (Adrian Beltre) scored more than him. There were 3 2nd basemen (Cano, Kinsler and Altuve) that scored more. And he was the 7th highest scoring 1st basement. He’s a pretty valuable player in points leagues.

          • Rubik's Pube says:
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            @malamoney: Well that would definitely change things. For points leagues, I play on CBS. Under their standard points league values, Posey is a top catcher, but there are a couple other catchers within 30 points of him that can be had 3-6 rounds later. I suppose that has a lot to do with my disdain for him

            • malamoney

              malamoney says:
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              @Rubik’s Pube: My league is CBS too (hate CBS) and I’m pretty sure the only difference in my league’s scoring than standard is we get +2 for a stolen base which would work against Posey. He’s the clear cut top catcher. If you don’t want to use a top 3-4 round pick on him, I get it. But if he’s there in the 4th round and it’s my turn, I’m pretty sure I’m grabbing him. Unless, of course, my league mates dropped the ball on another valuable player. Posey is a perennial MVP candidate.

  6. Pointy McPointerson says:
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    Any suggestions for a hitter/pitcher split in auctions? I usually go 70/30 but was thinking of upping the pitcher budget to squeeze in two top shelf, grade A, bona fide aces

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Pointy McPointerson: This is an area that I am a little rough around the edges. A lot comes down to the distribution of points. In some leagues pitchers have the ability to rack up more points. That would certainly affect a split. So would the number of pitchers you start versus hitters. I think the 70/30 split is geared toward roto league auctions.

  7. Sange76 says:
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    12 team h2h points
    Keeping Brantley 12 and Hamels 7

    Better start?
    Sherzer/posey or braun(whichever is there)/pujols or freeman
    Or
    Sherzer/Greinke/pujols or freeman

    I guess the question is if Greinke is still there, is he a reason to just go all in on pitching with a potential top 3 of Sherzer, Greinke, Hamels? Or do I need a 2nd rd bat and wait since those 2nd tier SP are pretty abundant?

    Thanks!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Sange76: Tough question. Mostly because I like Greinke and believe in the value of owning aces. I had to decided between keeping Braun and Greinke in my long term keeper league and I went with Greinke because he will certainly score me more points. And that was a very difficult decision because despite his public relations issues, I have been a fan of Braun since his days in minor leagues. I’ve actually owned him since then too. And no I a not from anywhere near Wisconsin nor did I go to the U of Miami. While Braun should bounce back from his last 2 seasons, I think his decline is in progress. He will still be above average, but Greinke is more valuable to my team.

      I would be taking Posey over Braun as I might be faced with that decision in my league as they will both be available. I am a big fan of Pujols still. Not personally as in Braun, but in points leagues. He still puts up the points.

      With all of that said, I don’t think you can go wrong. But I think with Hamels and Scherzer as your aces you should go for the bat if Posey or someone stronger that Braun is still there as I am taking Greinke over Braun. Use my sheet.

  8. Shivdaddy says:
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    @malamoney

    I have 10th pick in in a 12 man. I can not decide if I take a SP with pick 10 or cross my fingers and get 1 at pick 15. If things go wrong and the top 8 SP go I could end up with Cueto as best available SP @15. The guy at pick 11 has gone SP/SP last couple years so that scares me. I do not think guy with pick 12 goes SP/SP. With that thinking if there are 4 SP gone by my first pick I feel safe that I should get the #8 SP and with luck #7. Although if it is Bum that scares me a little. Do I go Abreau/miggs/goldy/Pirate then SP at 15 or do I take SP first then end up with Edwin/rizzo? I do not know what to do! Bautista will prob be there at 15 but I feel there is more value later in draft for OF and he is old as shit. What do i do?!!!!!??

    Also,
    Wood and Carrasco are RP eligible in most leagues, whats to fix?

    Sorting by FVARz top 25 Trout, Kershaw, McCutch, Scherzer, Fher, Posey, Stanton, Miggs, Donaldson, Bats, Price, Kimbrel, Tulo, Cano, Wood, Holland. Chapman, Sale, Klubes, Bum, Strasburgh, Goldy, Jones, and Rendon

    Thanks for your help and I am glad your doing points league post this year!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Shivdaddy: Evaluating Wood and Carrasco is/was a bit difficult. Compare them with RP and they look like studs. Compare them with SP and they seem pedestrian.

      With your 10th and 15th picks you’re gonna want a big bat and a stud.

      One of Price, Sale, Bumgarner or Strasburg
      One of Bautista, Edwin, Tulo, Goldy or Cano. Although I am not high on Edwin despite his rankings.

      Then there’s the points crazy part of me that says if you can get two of those ace pitchers and the focus the rest of your draft on hitters…. go for it. But’s that a strategy you will have to decide on.

  9. Andre says:
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    Malamoney….what’s good bro? Great write up per usual. Last year your advice helped me to the Chip! I was hoping you could drop some more knowledge today. Same 10 team keeper league…only this year we reset and my Stanton, McCutchen,Posey,Rendon, Scherzer dynasty in the making was blown up after only 2yrs together.

    This time, I’m not in love with my squad….but I gotta run someone out there. Got a trade offer on the table…Yellich and a 4th round pick for Carlos Gonzalez. The offensive stats are H, Avg, HR, RBI, Steals, Walks, and Runs. I had the 8th pick and this is the team. Would you pull the trigger? I’m trying to build my keeper base. We can keep 5 for unlimited time and right now I’m looking at Kershaw, Harvey, Rendon, and Donaldson…would Yellich be a keeper? Thanks!

    C-Messorasco
    1b-Freeman
    2b-Rendon
    3b-Donaldson
    SS-Zobrist
    OF- Bruce
    OF-Gonzalez
    OF-R. Zimmerman.
    UTL-Wright
    UTL-D.Santana

    Bench- Polanco, D. Murphy, H. Pence (DL), Baez

    P-Kershaw
    P-Harvey
    P-Alvarez
    Rp-Allen, Cishek, Perkins
    P-Holland
    P-Cain
    P-Peralta

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Andre: Call me crazy, but I’m going with Yelich on this one. With a draft pick kicker. It’s very close. Not sure if he’d be a keeper. That’s something the 2015 season will have to tell us.

  10. Shivdaddy says:
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    When is Rendon worth taking now? He was top 25 on excel. Draft in 2 days!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Shivdaddy: I’m not touching him with a 10 foot pole and someone else pushing. Now he is getting a third opinion. I want to say he’d be a good value pick in the 5th round, but even then, I would be concerned about the player I am passing up to take him. In my main league we have 5 keepers. He was not kept because of this injury. So the first round is really like the 6th round. He went in the 2nd round (aka 7th round) and a bunch of the guys in the league immediately starting busting the chops of the owner that took him. It’s a tough call and one that I will let me someone else’s.

  11. Ron says:
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    Just finished a 10-team H2H Points draft for the first time and pretty much exclusively used your points rankings spreadsheet (adjusted for my leagues scoring) and this is the team I was able to build. Not for nothing, this team was projected with the highest points by 300+ at the end of the draft. Just had a couple questions.

    1) Overall what do you think of this roster? To your liking…or nah?
    2) Based on who is listed on the waiver wire below, do you suggest any immediate changes to improve this team?

    Scoring Format:
    RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 1B (+1.25), 2B (+2.5), 3B (+3.75), HR (+5), BB (+1), SO (-1), SB (+1), CS (-0.5)
    WIN (+5), LOSS (-3), SAVE (+2), BS (-1), K (+1), ER (-1), HOLD (+1), QS (+3)

    C – Lucroy
    CI – Donaldson, Carpenter
    MI – Kinsler, Reyes
    OF – Trout, Brantley, Holliday
    Util – R. Zimmerman, Hosmer
    BN – Melky, Segura, Eaton

    SP – Arrieta, Gray, Kennedy, McHugh, Keuchel, Pineda
    RP – Carrasco, Shoemaker

    Waiver Wire:
    Bats – D. Santana, J. Pederson, A. Escobar, Cuddyer, Pedro Alvarez, Khris Davis, Mauer, Aoki, Markakis, A. Cabrera

    Arms – Clippard, Reed, Porcello, Lohse, Miller, Dickey, Paxton, Greene

    Thanks a million for the feedback!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Ron: I like the team. I’m counting on Hosmer to produce as I drafted him too. Would have liked to see a bonafide ace, but if your guys live up to their potential, then you will be in great shape.

      My rankings have Dickey above Pineda, but I think I like Pineda’s upside. I’m also a fan of Paxton’s upside. You’re going to need to keep a close watch on all three.

  12. PhrasingBackInTheMix says:
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    Interesting analysis — I feel bad now that I reached for Springer, which I could see wasn’t a great value (while using your spreadsheet…) but people had made some weird picks and I felt I had to go OF. Anyway, would love your perspective on my first ever points league team. It’s 10 teams, weekly lineups, 5 SP and 2 RP slots. Obviously the Rendon news was terrible timing.

    C: d’Arnaud
    1B: Goldschmidt
    2B: Rendon
    3B: Frazier
    SS: Andrus
    OF: Adam Jones
    OF: Springer
    OF: Gordon
    U: Ortiz
    Bench: Bogaerts, Blackmon

    SP: Scherzer, Shields, Richards, Ventura, McHugh
    RP: Alex Wood, Jansen
    Bench: Shoemaker, Carlos Martinez, Graveman

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @PhrasingBackInTheMix: Solid squad, but… Rendon’s health issues scare the crap out of me. Now he’s going for a third opinion. Make sure to monitor that situation hourly. Hopefully he misses minimal time, but an extended DL trip will hurt your team as I’m sure you used an early pick to get him. I’d probably put Springer on the bench and move Blackmon into place.

      A lot depends on your scoring system. I like Kenley, but while he is out, I’d like to see a guy who is going to get you saves if the points for a win and a save are the same. I am a big proponent of RP eligible SP, but only when they are on a two-start week. Otherwise I feel a closer has more opportunity for points in a week.

      My last thought is that with 1o teams and it seems only 21 players, that there are several quality players on your waiver wire. Make no bones about it though, it’s a good team.

  13. Shivdaddy says:
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    Alex Cobb, where is he worth taking now? I was thinking round 9/10 in a 12 man. What do you think?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Shivdaddy: Before the injury I had him at around the 23rd starting pitcher. But now I’d put him at around 50 due to the injury and the uncertainty of how long he will be out and if it can develop into something that causes him to miss extended time. This drop in rankings is solely based on the injury factor. Frankly I try to avoid all injured players (like Rendon) unless I am getting them at a crazy bargain. And since there is almost always someone in the league that is will to accept a minor bargain, I don’t get such players. In my 12-team points league that’s been around for 15 years now he was taken in the 12th round as the 33rd starting pitcher off the board.

  14. al says:
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    Can I get your opinion on my final squad in my 10 team H2H point league? Used your spreadsheet so want your input!

    Scoring:

    HIT (+1), RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 1B (+1), 2B (+1), 3B (+2), HR (+3), BB (+1) SB (+1)
    WIN (+3), LOSS (-3), IP (+3), K (+1), BB (-1), SAVE (+3), ER (-2), HIT (-1), NH (+10) PF (+15)

    (1) C: Lucroy
    (1) 1B: Freeman
    (1) 2B: Kinsler
    (1) SS: Andrus
    (1) 3B: Donaldson
    (3) OF: A. Gordon, J. Heyward, M. Cabrera
    (1) UT: A. Rendon
    Bench: (Revere)

    (4) SP: Scherzer, Cobb, L. Lynn, P. Hughes
    (3) RP: Chapman, Kimbrel, C. Martinez [SP/RP]
    Bench: (I. Kennedy, C. McHugh, Smyly, Lackey)
    Bench Total: (5)

    Available pitchers include guys like Fiers, Paxton, Shoemaker, Hahn, Collmenter, Hammel, Eovaldi, Bauer, and Greene… anyone on my team worth dropping for any of them?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @al: Excellent team. Especially if Rendon checks out and does not miss extended time. In the meantime you have points league specialist, Ben Revere, to fill in. Killer RP squad!

      As for right now I’d say hold, but I’d keep a close eye on Fiers, Paxton and Shoemaker as they all have the ability to be pitchers you would want on your team. On the other end, keep an eye on Smyly and Lackey. Smyly is working back from shoulder tendonitis and Lackey is Lackey. If Shoemaker has RP eligibility in your league, he gains additional value.

  15. Ron says:
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    In an H2H Points league please pick 3 out of the 4 below.

    Keuchel, Paxton, Pineda, Mchugh

    And is it even close?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Ron: Depends on your league’s scoring system.

      • Ron says:
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        @malamoney: Here are the point values:
        WIN (+5), LOSS (-3), SAVE (+2), BS (-1), K (+1), ER (-1), HOLD (+1), QS (+3)

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          @Ron: McHugh, Keuchel and Pineda. But Paxton might have the most upside and is on the best team of the group, so if you wanted to swap Paxton in for Pineda or Keuchel, that would work too. It’s a difficult question to answer considering how close in value they all are.

  16. Tom says:
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    The day has come! I applied my scoring to your awesome spreadsheet, but I wasn’t entirely sure how to handle the positions. Any chance you can hook something up before 8pm tonight?
    12 team H2H Weekly Points – Roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 4 OF, 1 U, 5 SP, 2 RP (Must be Closers), 5 Bench.

    Scoring System:
    1B Singles 1 point
    2B Doubles 2 points
    3B Triples 3 points
    BB Walks (Batters) 0.5 points
    CS Caught Stealing -1 point
    CYC Hitting for the Cycle 10 points
    GDP Ground Into Double Plays -0.5 points
    HP Hit by Pitch 0.5 points
    HR Home Runs 4 points
    KO Strikeouts (Batter) -0.5 points
    R Runs 1 point
    RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
    SB Stolen Bases 1 point

    BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -0.5 points
    BS Blown Saves -2 points
    CG Complete Games 3 points
    ER Earned Runs -1 point
    HB Hit Batsmen -0.5 points
    INN Innings 1.5 points
    K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
    L Losses -6 points
    NH No-Hitters 15 points
    PG Perfect Games 20 points
    QS Quality Starts 1 point
    S Saves 6 points
    W Wins 6 points

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Tom: After you update the “Points System” worksheet to reflect your league’s scoring system, go to the “All” worksheet and re-sort the FVARz column in descending order.

      Here’s what I am seeing for your scoring system:

      Clayton Kershaw 4.905831267 426.11 SP
      Mike Trout 4.700387091 531.935 OF
      Max Scherzer 3.859086011 368.345 SP
      Andrew McCutchen 3.711411231 481.17 OF
      Felix Hernandez 3.548496317 351.205 SP
      Buster Posey 3.464967748 397.3 C,1B
      Craig Kimbrel 3.43303092 376.34 RP
      Miguel Cabrera 3.3894779 515.5 1B
      Aroldis Chapman 3.388295113 373.685 RP
      Jose Bautista 3.377986197 464.055 OF
      Giancarlo Stanton 3.350030315 462.62 OF
      Josh Donaldson 3.339709841 429.045 3B
      Troy Tulowitzki 3.290026344 404.695 SS
      Greg Holland 3.247853322 365.35 RP
      Chris Sale 3.164879991 330.035 SP
      Robinson Cano 3.150549361 442.805 2B
      Adrian Beltre 3.010630921 416.365 3B
      Anthony Rendon 2.957168573 414.305 2B, 3B
      Stephen Strasburg 2.936920927 317.455 SP
      Jose Altuve 2.878274543 429.675 2B
      Adam Jones 2.869812547 437.97 OF
      Yasiel Puig 2.724091294 430.49 OF
      Jose Reyes 2.723169884 386.125 SS
      David Price 2.71539473 305.23 SP
      Michael Brantley 2.705291694 429.525 OF
      Corey Kluber 2.703253826 304.56 SP
      Madison Bumgarner 2.694827676 304.095 SP
      Ian Kinsler 2.668832375 419.575 2B
      Jonathan Lucroy 2.638458503 361.495 C
      Paul Goldschmidt 2.608313417 465.265 1B
      Jose Abreu 2.578068271 463.32 1B
      Edwin Encarnacion 2.573869716 463.05 1B
      Anthony Rizzo 2.489121106 457.6 1B
      David Robertson 2.485238389 320.09 RP
      Trevor Rosenthal 2.458700198 318.515 RP
      Kyle Seager 2.427086796 393.88 3B
      Hanley Ramirez 2.414558209 376.015 SS
      Evan Longoria 2.3776471 391.975 3B
      Kenley Jansen 2.356170108 312.43 RP
      Nolan Arenado 2.327039538 390.025 3B
      Ben Zobrist 2.293830299 372.06 2B, SS, OF
      Hunter Pence 2.28809642 408.11 OF
      Ryan Braun 2.275530884 407.465 OF
      Steve Cishek 2.232240969 305.075 RP
      Johnny Cueto 2.228218305 278.345 SP
      Cody Allen 2.218340012 304.25 RP
      Zack Greinke 2.207560647 277.205 SP
      Carlos Gomez 2.16711661 401.9 OF
      Mark Melancon 2.150267446 300.21 RP
      Koji Uehara 2.139820667 299.59 RP
      Albert Pujols 2.131855176 434.625 1B
      Ian Desmond 2.118004063 366.3 SS
      Jon Lester 2.093671719 270.92 SP
      Freddie Freeman 2.075252434 430.985 1B
      Matt Carpenter 2.062582582 379.835 3B
      Fernando Rodney 2.036026853 293.43 RP
      Matt Holliday 2.032694598 395 OF
      Adrian Gonzalez 2.01616166 427.185 1B
      Todd Frazier 1.960069827 375.885 1B, 3B
      Glen Perkins 1.958771231 288.845 RP
      Yoenis Cespedes 1.942690294 390.38 OF
      Dustin Pedroia 1.933296366 384.105 2B
      Jacoby Ellsbury 1.920578847 389.245 OF
      Jordan Zimmermann 1.918262837 261.24 SP
      Alex Gordon 1.916974779 389.06 OF
      Cole Hamels 1.898511217 260.15 SP
      Adam Wainwright 1.872507938 258.715 SP
      Justin Upton 1.860965607 386.185 OF
      Alexei Ramirez 1.848464884 357.47 SS
      Zach Britton 1.845962858 282.15 RP
      Pablo Sandoval 1.83523784 371.075 3B
      Salvador Perez 1.811025913 325.65 C
      Jason Heyward 1.809437169 383.54 OF
      Starlin Castro 1.79977689 355.875 SS
      Huston Street 1.784798646 278.52 RP
      Brian Dozier 1.780880531 376.755 2B
      Dellin Betances 1.772919647 277.815 RP
      Bryce Harper 1.727128039 379.315 OF
      Victor Martinez 1.690462644 406.24 1B
      Masahiro Tanaka 1.673179662 247.715 SP
      Nelson Cruz 1.671216274 376.445 OF
      Melky Cabrera 1.670047387 376.385 OF
      Evan Gattis 1.666753248 319.4 C
      Jonathan Papelbon 1.652613181 270.675 RP
      Corey Dickerson 1.637026328 374.69 OF
      Prince Fielder 1.581688969 399.245 1B
      Drew Storen 1.558002425 265.06 RP
      Brian McCann 1.555490168 314.58 C
      Chris Davis 1.526012656 359.16 1B, 3B
      Daniel Murphy 1.524884139 364.41 2B
      Joaquin Benoit 1.515541319 262.54 RP
      Jeff Samardzija 1.494780856 237.87 SP
      Addison Reed 1.458168278 259.135 RP
      Matt Harvey 1.453737352 235.605 SP
      Jay Bruce 1.41659371 363.375 OF
      Lance Lynn 1.40598917 232.97 SP
      David Wright 1.404943795 354.495 3B
      Denard Span 1.398378553 362.44 OF
      Alex Wood 1.39389716 214.15 SP,RP
      Elvis Andrus 1.360821807 341.495 SS

      Good luck!

      • Tom says:
        (link)

        @malamoney: Thanks I got that far! I wasn’t sure if the number of starters at each position mattered or not. Something seems a little off with the points. Hitters look fine, but pitchers seem much lower than I’m seeing in my sheet. For example Kershaw should be at 590.41, Scherzer 540.18, Felix 533.19.

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          @Tom: I had -1 for hits.

          Mike Trout 4.700387091 531.935 OF
          Clayton Kershaw 4.603456262 590.41 SP
          Max Scherzer 3.746036718 540.175 SP
          Andrew McCutchen 3.711411231 481.17 OF
          Felix Hernandez 3.626730206 533.185 SP
          Craig Kimbrel 3.509437596 414.28 RP
          Buster Posey 3.464967748 397.3 C,1B
          Miguel Cabrera 3.3894779 515.5 1B
          Jose Bautista 3.377986197 464.055 OF
          Greg Holland 3.366964411 407.4 RP
          Aroldis Chapman 3.351950885 406.675 RP
          Giancarlo Stanton 3.350030315 462.62 OF
          Josh Donaldson 3.339709841 429.045 3B
          Troy Tulowitzki 3.290026344 404.695 SS
          David Price 3.158976994 505.78 SP
          Robinson Cano 3.150549361 442.805 2B
          Adrian Beltre 3.010630921 416.365 3B
          Anthony Rendon 2.957168573 414.305 2B, 3B
          Chris Sale 2.951513382 493.625 SP
          Corey Kluber 2.899370121 490.57 SP
          Jose Altuve 2.878274543 429.675 2B
          Adam Jones 2.869812547 437.97 OF
          Stephen Strasburg 2.863953667 488.495 SP
          Madison Bumgarner 2.781685085 483.675 SP
          Yasiel Puig 2.724091294 430.49 OF
          Jose Reyes 2.723169884 386.125 SS
          Michael Brantley 2.705291694 429.525 OF
          Ian Kinsler 2.668832375 419.575 2B
          Jonathan Lucroy 2.638458503 361.495 C
          Paul Goldschmidt 2.608313417 465.265 1B
          Trevor Rosenthal 2.593612508 370.055 RP
          David Robertson 2.579634397 369.38 RP
          Jose Abreu 2.578068271 463.32 1B
          Edwin Encarnacion 2.573869716 463.05 1B
          Anthony Rizzo 2.489121106 457.6 1B
          Jon Lester 2.437505427 463.51 SP
          Kyle Seager 2.427086796 393.88 3B
          Hanley Ramirez 2.414558209 376.015 SS
          Evan Longoria 2.3776471 391.975 3B
          Steve Cishek 2.372654821 359.385 RP
          Nolan Arenado 2.327039538 390.025 3B
          Mark Melancon 2.326164661 357.14 RP
          Cody Allen 2.311047594 356.41 RP
          Ben Zobrist 2.293830299 372.06 2B, SS, OF
          Hunter Pence 2.28809642 408.11 OF
          Ryan Braun 2.275530884 407.465 OF
          Zack Greinke 2.270834743 453.745 SP
          Kenley Jansen 2.265696391 354.22 RP
          Jordan Zimmermann 2.170559241 447.87 SP
          Carlos Gomez 2.16711661 401.9 OF
          Johnny Cueto 2.147090507 446.495 SP
          Adam Wainwright 2.13940983 446.045 SP
          Albert Pujols 2.131855176 434.625 1B
          Cole Hamels 2.122597682 445.06 SP
          Ian Desmond 2.118004063 366.3 SS
          Fernando Rodney 2.085326995 345.51 RP
          Koji Uehara 2.08097825 345.3 RP
          Freddie Freeman 2.075252434 430.985 1B
          Matt Carpenter 2.062582582 379.835 3B
          Glen Perkins 2.041321833 343.385 RP
          Matt Holliday 2.032694598 395 OF
          Adrian Gonzalez 2.01616166 427.185 1B
          Todd Frazier 1.960069827 375.885 1B, 3B
          Zach Britton 1.946374223 338.8 RP
          Yoenis Cespedes 1.942690294 390.38 OF
          Dustin Pedroia 1.933296366 384.105 2B
          Jacoby Ellsbury 1.920578847 389.245 OF
          Alex Gordon 1.916974779 389.06 OF
          James Shields 1.902844987 432.185 SP
          Matt Shoemaker 1.866233057 334.93 SP,RP
          Justin Upton 1.860965607 386.185 OF
          Alexei Ramirez 1.848464884 357.47 SS
          Pablo Sandoval 1.83523784 371.075 3B
          Jeff Samardzija 1.827147651 427.75 SP
          Salvador Perez 1.811025913 325.65 C
          Jason Heyward 1.809437169 383.54 OF
          Starlin Castro 1.79977689 355.875 SS
          Brian Dozier 1.780880531 376.755 2B
          Alex Wood 1.768185443 372.33 SP,RP
          Bryce Harper 1.727128039 379.315 OF
          Dellin Betances 1.700463021 326.925 RP
          Victor Martinez 1.690462644 406.24 1B
          Nelson Cruz 1.671216274 376.445 OF
          Melky Cabrera 1.670047387 376.385 OF
          Evan Gattis 1.666753248 319.4 C
          Huston Street 1.665776599 325.25 RP
          Jonathan Papelbon 1.642065582 324.105 RP
          Corey Dickerson 1.637026328 374.69 OF
          Prince Fielder 1.581688969 399.245 1B
          Brian McCann 1.555490168 314.58 C
          Chris Davis 1.526012656 359.16 1B, 3B
          Daniel Murphy 1.524884139 364.41 2B
          Drew Storen 1.524752996 318.44 RP
          Lance Lynn 1.523675579 409.97 SP
          Masahiro Tanaka 1.502767071 408.745 SP
          Justin Verlander 1.492014123 408.115 SP
          Julio Teheran 1.458901872 406.175 SP
          Addison Reed 1.456519108 315.145 RP
          Phil Hughes 1.425362917 404.21 SP
          Carlos Carrasco 1.423944509 352.18 SP,RP
          Jay Bruce 1.41659371 363.375 OF
          David Wright 1.404943795 354.495 3B
          Denard Span 1.398378553 362.44 OF
          Elvis Andrus 1.360821807 341.495 SS

          • Tom says:
            (link)

            @malamoney:
            What do ya think?!
            C Russell Martin C | TOR
            1B Albert Pujols 1B | LAA
            2B Ian Kinsler 2B | DET
            3B Pablo Sandoval 3B | BOS
            SS Danny Santana OF,SS | MIN
            OF Matt Holliday OF | STL
            OF Adam Jones OF | BAL
            OF J.D. Martinez OF | DET
            OF Ryan Zimmerman OF | WAS
            U Mookie Betts OF | BOS
            Bench:
            1B C.J. Cron 1B | LAA
            OF A.J. Pollock OF | ARI

            SP Gerrit Cole SP | PIT
            SP Mike Fiers SP | MIL
            SP Clayton Kershaw SP | LAD
            SP Corey Kluber SP | CLE
            SP Collin McHugh SP | HOU
            RP Aroldis Chapman RP | CIN
            RP Huston Street RP | LAA
            Bench:
            SP Carlos Martinez RP,SP | STL
            SP Brandon McCarthy SP | LAD
            SP James Paxton SP | SEA
            RP Daniel Norris RP | TOR

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