Now that we’re midway into June we’re really starting to see who the studs and duds are. Now that guys have established themselves and we have a large enough sample size to identify consistent fantasy contributes. So with that in mind now seems like a good time to check in on my preseason rankings. Prior to the season I went over the unique challenges that points leagues pose to fantasy players. Hey, I’m the points guy so you’re darn tootin that I’m gonna make it sound like points leagues are the most difficult format and you would be lost without me to guide you. So let’s check in on the top points scorers are and see who is outperforming their ranking and who is making you want to give up fantasy baseball forever. As I sat down to write this and started looking at who’s on top I realized I made an error in my initial rankings. Yes, I made a mistake, not often, but it happens. When I crunched the numbers based on projections I neglected to combine Shohei Ohtani into one player and instead had him listed as two separate players. I know there are formats where he is separated, but he really should be one player who is eligible at both pitcher and DH. If he picks up OF eligibility it will be icing on the cake. Anyhoo, he’s the top fantasy points scorer this season, and it’s not like he’s barely ahead. There isn’t much I can say about him that hasn’t already been said, he’s simply been incredible this season and he should be the number one overall pick next season if can keep rolling. He would have checked in at number 10 in my preseason ranks had I added up his pitching and hitting numbers. That’s still an incredibly valuable player, just not far and away the best.
Now lets get into the top players and see where they ranked going into the season. First up, pitchers.
Kevin Gausman is number two this season, pretty good for a guy who was supposed to only be around the top 50. I liked him coming into the season and hoped the pitcher friendly park would give him a boost. What I didn’t expect was this, absolute domination. He keep logging innings and racking up strikeouts. As a Giants fan, you love to see it.
Jacob deGrom was number one in the preseason and isn’t too far off that pace. Points leagues are funny because what he’s doing is amazing, he’s simply destroying the souls of opposing batters. A 0.54 ERA with 111 Ks in 67 innings, are you kidding me? Those sound like made up numbers, or what happens when you play MLB the Show on easy mode. However, despite his incredible numbers, he’s only the number three pitcher in points leagues about 20 points behind Gausman and 50 behind Ohtani. Just goes to show how important it is to know your league settings. Of course, we’re all waiting with baited breath for the injury picture to clear up. Unfortunately I don’t have anything to add on that front, but I’ll be keeping a close eye on the situation.
Gerrit Cole number 2 going into the season, and so far he’s been delivering. Awkward answers to questions about using the “sticky stuff” aside, he’s still an incredibly talented pitcher.
Zack Wheeler I definitely undervalued him coming into the season, ranking him in the 40s. Well, he has surged to the top by giving you 96 innings, the most of any pitcher so far.
Brandon Woodruff was in the 20s coming into the season.
Tyler Glasnow the injury really puts a damper on the season he was having, far outperforming his mid 60s ranking.
Trevor Bauer is right about where the projections said he would be as top 10 player.
Freddy Peralta getting a chance to start has really boosted his value, and he’s already almost hit his projected point total. When I ran my numbers, he was only projected for 103 innings (he’s logged 75 so far). Definitely missed on this one due to innings totals alone, but his stuff has been elite.
Yu Darvish was number 14 in the preseason so his performance has been pretty much what we expected.
Hitters
Vladimir Guerrero Jr checks in just after Glasnow on the big board. I had high hopes for him but he’s a bit ahead of where the projections had him.
Ronald Acuna Jr is right about where he should be.
Jose Ramirez nailed it. Well, not quite but he’s a top 10 hitter.
Jesse Winker is the big hitter surprise. I had him as top 50 bat, but his heroics have made him a top 5 guy. I did did say that his value saw a boost in points leagues, but I didn’t see this coming.
Matt Olson is another big mover like Winker, making the jump from top 60 to top 10.
Yuli Gurriel top 70 to top 10 hitter is quite the jump. His RBI totals are impressive and a big part of his value.
Fernando Tatis Jr really should be higher than this, which is wild when you think about how good he’s been. If not for the IL time, he would likely be challenging Vlad for the right to be the second best hitter. I’ll take the L on this one because I didn’t expect him to live up to possible number 1 pick billing.
Nick Castellanos another guy I was wrong about, as I had him all they way down at 46.
Jose Altuve was a guy I avoided in drafts because I didn’t like what I saw last season. The power seemed to have dried up, but it’s back in a big way this season.
Now that we’ve looked at the actual top 10 pitchers and hitters it’s time to check in on some guys who aren’t quite living up to expectations.
Juan Soto hasn’t been the Sexy Dr. Pepper that we all know and love and who was the top ranked hitter by projections. His average has taken a tumble and the power just isn’t there. I’m not ready to give up on him and would even check in to see if he’s available. He’s got too much talent to not turn things around.
Mookie Betts hasn’t been objectively bad but he’s not what you were expecting from your first round pick. He’s had a strong last couple weeks and seems to be heating up with the weather.
Cody Bellinger has been completely derailed by injury this season. Not much to take away from this other than that injuries happen and you can’t control them. Unfortunately injuries have hit hard this season and claimed Mike Trout and Corey Seager as well along with many others.
Francisco Lindor has not been enjoying the move to the Big Apple and neither have his fantasy managers. He was the second ranked shortstop but isn’t even in the top 12. You hate to see it, but he just hasn’t really given us much reason to be encouraged. If you can move him, I would but right now there’s no way you’re getting much.
Luis Castillo finally has positive points on the season, so I guess that’s good. I’m not ready to trust him again, but if he’s on your wire I would kick the tires.
Patrick Corbin has struggled to keep the ERA in check and that limits his ability to pitch deep into games. Without that his upside is limited.
We’ve got some wins and some losses using projections because they’re just that, projections. There’s a reason they actually play the games. Luck also certainly plays a factor as well. The best ability is availability and you can’t predict when a guy takes a wrong step and ends up on the IL.
Questions? Comments? Concerns? Hit me up here or on Twitter @deltaxi1842
