Happy Sunday everyone, hope you have all had a fantastic week. Me? Well, I’m glad you asked, anyone have a couch for me to crash on? My three girls started school this week and it is online to start the year, so I get to be the taskmaster until they start going to classes physically. Enough whining from me though, we have 13 games worth of players to look at and there is no shortage of good matchups with great park conditions today. Half of the games have the wind blowing out to center hard enough to take into consideration.
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Yu Darvish, SP: $10,200 – Darvish is the top pitcher on this Sunday slate. With 29% strikeouts and 4% walks, and the improvement in command we may be back to the Darvish of old. His xFIP is under 3.00 for the year, and he’s struck out at least seven in 3 of his 5 starts. Ownership should also be pretty low with the way the White Sox offense has been looking.
Corbin Burnes, SP: $7,300 – You would think with 13 games we would have more pitching options but that clearly isn’t the case. He isn’t great but he isn’t going to kill you either. He is over nine K/9 and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned in any contest. Am I excited about it, not really. But I am also not worried about him giving me nothing.
Mike Minor, SP: $6,900 – Talk about dull, this selection is more about Seattle offense than Minor’s pitching. Seattle is at the bottom nearly every offensive statistical category and when they square off against a lefty it’s even worse. There are really too many negative stats to look at so I’m not getting into the weeds. I just feel good about Minor’s potential today.
Matt Olson, C/1B: $3,700 – Olson looks like a great play against Dylan Bundy today. Great park conditions, Bundy is allowing a 38.5% hard-hit rate, and Olson is sporting a .260 ISO this season against right-handed arms. Olson fits nicely in the west coast stack I’m using tonight.
Anthony Rizzo, C/1B: $3,300- Wind is blowing out at Wrigley and Dylan Cease is allowing a 45% fly-ball rate and a 40% hard-hit rate. Combine that with Rizzo’s .279 ISO and his 45% fly-ball rate and he could go nuts today.
Max Muncy, 2B: $3,400 – Max Muncy, that funky Muncy. I’m loving both sides of this contest tonight. I could easily stack both sides tonight and feel great about the prospects. Muncy is sporting a .212 ISO and a 51% fly-ball rate with Senzatela allowing a 35% hard-hit rate this season. With the wind blowing out at well over 10mph a few warning track fly balls may go over tonight.
Ketel Marte, 2B: $3,300- Don’t roll your eyes, I know he hasn’t been that great this season but his opposing pitcher has been that much worse. In two starts Trevor Cahill hasn’t gone more than four innings and 93% of contact against him has been medium or hard and he has a 20 percent walk rate. I know it is skewed by the small sample a bit but it is not much.
Anthony Rendon, 3B: $4,000- Rendon is sitting at a nice little .226 ISO against righties this season with a 57% hard-hit rate. He has been extremely consistent in terms of scoring. in 9 of the last 12 games he’s scored at least 15 FD points all while not hitting a home run in the last six. I think he’s due.
Jose Ramirez, 3B: $3,900 – I really haven’t recommended many Indians this year but Ramirez is in a great spot today if you’re stacking Indians. Boyd gives up home runs in bunches. Fly ball and hart hit rates over 50 percent spell disaster for a day where the wind is blowing out.
Kyle Schwarber, OF: $2,700 – Cubs are a fun little stacking option today and Kyle gives you tremendous power at a bare-bones price. He’s a bit streaky, to say the least, but everything lines up to stack Cubbies today and reap the benefits.
J.D. Martinez, OF: $3,600 – The easiest thing in the world, start Martinez against mediocre lefties. Moving on.
Jorge Soler, OF: $3,000 – I usually avoid Royals at home but the park conditions negate that today. Soler matches up extremely well against Matt Wisler. Soler has a .265 ISO against righties and Wisler is allowing a 63 percent fly-ball rate.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
All good across the board. The wind is blowing out to center in a number of stadiums but my plays reflect that.
Doing Lines In Vegas