The name says it all, it’s what everyone keeps asking for, NSVH. It sounds like a spin-off of CSI, or Law and Order. Except with really geeky dudes who shouldn’t really have an actual head-shot of themselves for use as their avatar. We know who they are, and pointing fingers isn’t polite unless it’s the one that I normally get from people at the retirement home I frequent for volunteer duties. Much love Shady Acres. So this week we delve into the numbers game, the ones that mimic me and steal my Nutella sandwich. These projections are highly irregular and tougher than most other stats in the pretend game. The fluctuation of personnel by teams is mind boggling and makes me look goofy. So in the chart below I am giving you the top-60 NSVH chaps with some pertinent stats that help all. During the year, I’ll get into more of the sustaining stats, but since we aren’t there yet, I can’t just make them up. Those tendency stats that I am referring to (Inherited Runners, Inherited Runners Scored, and Appearances with Lead) are my way of determining both closer and set-up guy efficiency. How they are used and when they are used. So those that are looking forward to that, hooray for you. So without further adieu, here are some projections for the top NSVH guys for this year.
- Mark Melancon is the so called bell of the ball for value in this format. Yeah, I can dig that he had a down year in 2012, but 2013 was stellar. He made 72 appearances and allowed zero inherited runs to score, it’s because he had zero chances to let them score. That’s a knock and a slap on the tookus all in one. Allowing 11 ER all year is quite remarkable, and if he keeps this up and gets over 30 holds and steals some saves for when Jason Grilli is all 6’s and 7’s.
- Closers are all the gas in most formats, except this one. They are drafted way higher than normal and because of the Blown Save as a negative they don’t offer enough in the Holds department to show there true draft value. So keep that in mind when your draft is happening. It’s usually good to wait and partner a closer and his top-2 set-up guys.
- Bullpen consistency is king. Look for teams that have stacked bullpens with guys that have track records. Teams like the Padres, Braves and A’s are a rolling ball of NSVH value.
- Grabbing handcuffs for yourself es mas importante. Because if a domino falls and you have the next piece, the guys being replaced still retains value. Saves are saves and holds are holds, but both count in the running total.
- I realize there will be guys with more holds than ‘last on the list’ LaTroy Hawkins, but I listed him for the effect that not all closers are gems in this format.
| PLAYER | K’s | SAVES | BS | HOLDS | Total |
| Mark Melancon | 68 | 9 | 2 | 38 | 45 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 115 | 47 | 4 | – | 43 |
| Tyler Clippard | 78 | 5 | 2 | 37 | 40 |
| Joe Nathan | 82 | 44 | 5 | – | 39 |
| Kenley Jansen | 102 | 43 | 5 | – | 38 |
| Greg Holland | 109 | 44 | 7 | – | 37 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 121 | 41 | 4 | – | 37 |
| Koji Uehara | 90 | 39 | 2 | – | 37 |
| Joel Peralta | 80 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 36 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | 101 | 40 | 5 | – | 35 |
| Grant Balfour | 78 | 39 | 4 | – | 35 |
| Glen Perkins | 82 | 38 | 3 | – | 35 |
| Luke Gregerson | 63 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 35 |
| Steve Cishek | 76 | 39 | 5 | – | 34 |
| David Robertson | 87 | 40 | 7 | – | 33 |
| Ernesto Frieri | 81 | 38 | 5 | – | 33 |
| Sergio Romo | 70 | 37 | 4 | – | 33 |
| Fernando Rodney | 72 | 36 | 4 | – | 32 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 64 | 36 | 5 | – | 31 |
| Jim Henderson | 75 | 35 | 4 | – | 31 |
| Casey Janssen | 63 | 35 | 5 | – | 31 |
| Cody Allen | 86 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 31 |
| Jim Johnson | 54 | 36 | 6 | – | 30 |
| Rafael Soriano | 60 | 32 | 6 | – | 30 |
| Rex Brothers | 86 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 30 |
| Joaquin Benoit | 64 | 6 | 3 | 27 | 30 |
| Brandon Kintzler | 72 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 29 |
| Addison Reed | 67 | 34 | 6 | – | 28 |
| Tanner Scheppers | 59 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 28 |
| Luis Avilan | 52 | – | 1 | 29 | 28 |
| Jake McGee | 84 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 28 |
| Jason Grilli | 80 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 27 |
| Joakim Soria | 66 | 12 | 2 | 17 | 27 |
| Edward Mujica | 54 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 27 |
| Darren O’Day | 64 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 27 |
| Junichi Tazawa | 76 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 27 |
| Jared Burton | 70 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 27 |
| Heath Bell | 62 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 26 |
| Brad Ziegler | 71 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 26 |
| Santiago Casilla | 50 | – | 2 | 28 | 26 |
| Shawn Kelley | 88 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 26 |
| Jose Veras | 65 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| Brian Wilson | 78 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| Sean Doolittle | 81 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 24 |
| Pedro Strop | 69 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 24 |
| Sergio Santos | 74 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 24 |
| J.J. Putz | 72 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 23 |
| Nate Jones | 74 | 24 | 7 | 6 | 23 |
| Huston Street | 55 | 29 | 7 | – | 22 |
| J.J. Hoover | 74 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 22 |
| Scott Downs | 50 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 |
| Danny Farquhar | 82 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 22 |
| Chad Qualls | 45 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 22 |
| John Axford | 58 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 22 |
| Bobby Parnell | 64 | 26 | 5 | – | 21 |
| Neftali Feliz | 62 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 20 |
| Tommy Hunter | 59 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| Joe Smith | 71 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 20 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 51 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
Smokey, here’s my ‘pen coming out of the draft(10 team Y! Roto sv+hld): Balfour, Peralta, Feliz, Allen, Scheppers, Beard.
There still some quality arms out there IMO, such as Kintzler, Herrera, Siegrist, McGee, Avilan, Burton, Doolittle, Kelley.
Most interesting names to me are McGee (who I picked up last year after his awful start), Herrera (now that Hochevar is gone), and Siegrist (who is STL set up man?).
Finally, what can we expect from Wilson this year? Do you think Mattingly uses him in the traditional set up role?
@The Thumb: I think he sets up for Jansen, he will most likely be used sparingly to start the year building up his stamina and steal some off day saves. Him, Paco and Chris Perez(ya that Chris Perez) should see alot of work in the 7th and 8th.
@Smokey: siegrist won’t be 8th inning, but will get holds from the 7th and occasionally 8th, against lefties. However, if CarMart gets starter gig, and before Motte’s back, he could easily get 8th inning, or bigger part of it. I just drafted CarMart late in 28 man roster holds and net saves (2 separate stats though, so closers still should be drafted first, since there’s only 30 of them at a time, and at least a hundred holds guys), and i’ll take him either as 7th/8th starter or top notch 8th inning guy.
Hey Smokey – good stuff.
Just wondering your methodology for how you projected holds? With saves, at least there are the various projection systems that give a sort-of consensus-y range to work within.
But like Gregerson with 34 holds comes from where? Seems high to me – Cook had just 23 last year, and he’s prob still the 8th inning guy there. Or at least gotta think the two of them are going to split time in that role with Doolittle, and thus prob split the hold opps… Or are you thinking differently?
@Goose: I use situation they have had previously with situation they are going to have, Team success and team outlook. Oakland is going to be a 90 win team this year in my estimation. All three guys Cook, Doolittle and Gregerson are destined for 70 plus appearances again, getting a hold in 30% of those would put them all at 21 and up, plus factoring in multiple hols for each guy per game. For a 90 win team to have a 30% chance at a hold situation is a pretty healthy formula.
Love this list. Thanks so much. We always have holds or SV/H in our 13 year old league. A guy that no one is paying attention to for holds is Kevin Siegrist – who is taking over eighth inning duties in St. Louis as Rosenthal moves to closer.
39.2 IP, 50Ks, 0.45ERA, 0.88 Whip, 11 holds
Siegrist is a hard throwing lefty who was as equally as filthy as Rosenthal last year.
In 39.2 innings pitched he had 50 Ks versus 18 walks and gave up just 17 hits and only TWO Earned Runs (one of those a homer by Papi). 0.45 ERA. 0.88 Whip. .128 Batting Average Against.
@JDW: I made it just for you….I have Siegrist in every league I have drafted to date. He is going to be this years lefty version of Cody Allen and next year he is the hot stash name for saves should Rosenthal stumble or get injured.
@Smokey: Siegrist was HUGE last year, i had him in 5 out of 5 leagues that incorporated holds.
I’ll second the callout for some Kevin Siegrist love this year. He should be the eighth inning guy for a St Louis team that wins a lot of games. He had 9 holds in August/September last year and now Rosenthal is out of the way. It doesn’t hurt that he strikes out a ton of guys and does pretty much everything well, particularly since he’s transitioned to the pen. Oh, and he’s a lefty to boot.
@A Hill O’ Beans: Yea he was in there for original chart and when I was moving guys around he must have been deleted accidentally. He finishes with 90+ K’s and 32 holds.
@Smokey: I’m hoping he gets 32. I’ve got Siegrist and Clippard so far in my holds league. I’m thinking around 70 holds between them sounds pretty good.
@A Hill O’ Beans: You’re def sitting pretty then. Sorry bout the miss, it will be updated when Jay gets to it later so you and everyone has a reference.
@Smokey:
Great article Smokey and happy belated Ash Wednesday to you and your Ashy Larry avatar!
I would like to request that you NOT update your list so as to keep Siegrist off the radar. Thanks guys.
@Yaomiiiing: thanks. Ashy Larry was in Renofor the world series of dice. Siegrist is on the radar of competent fantasy players.
@Smokey: i think the fact that 4 people (almost in a row) have made Siegrist comments (and i’m involved in near every one) would defeat that secretiveness. Don’t expect that kind of ERA again though, dude had possibly the luckiest BABIP in all of baseball from August on. He is also near the best at low as shit walk rate, and that went back to minors.
So seeing all the Siegrist love (and the fact that he’s a FA in my league), would you rather have him over any of my bullpen guys? Balfour, Feliz, Scheppers, Peralta, Allen, Wilson? I’m guessing Beard is the odd man out.
@The Thumb: and do you ultimately think Siegrist gets the 8th inning over Martinez?
@The Thumb: beard would be odd man out. I’m not completely sold on c-mart not being a starter still. Still 2 plus weeks to know for sure though
Am I the only guy who owns Axford thinking that he going to take that job and keep it this year with Cleveland?
@centerfield_ballhawk: I at least think he starts with the job. I called the tipping his pitches thing before we heard about it this year. It’s in the podcast archives somewheres. I just think Allen has the goods. Axford needs to be the goods or he is going to get the hook fast.
@Smokey: with STL (where i’m assuming the pitches weren’t being tipped) he looked very good, in limited action. I remember barely believing how good he looked (STL resident, so i saw every inning)
Those blown save numbers seem pretty strange to me. You’re expecting someone like Gregerson to go 36/37 in his opportunities, even though for his career he’s 148/172, and he’s never had a conversion rate of 90% in any season, with 33/37 & 42/47 his two best at 89%. Same for Melancon, he was 42/47 last year, 76/89 (85%) for his career, and you have him down for 47/49, a 96% success rate.
Almost looks like you’ve ignored for all but a few guys that a failed hold attempt is actually a blown save.
@Czernobog: didn’t ignore it. This is just a fun guessing game. The column on the right is the one that really matters. Guessing blown saves is like guessing caught stealing in net steals leagues.
@Czernobog: i thought in NSVH only made the “saves” part net. i thought a blown hold just went into the books as a 0, not a -1. maybe i’m wrong. i do think if one is net they both should be, i just thought that wasn’t how it was done yet.
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: so in acronoyms (SP) i’m thinking NVSH means net saves AND holds, instead of net saves AND net holds.
Noticed no Royals setup guys on this list. What do you project for Herrera now that he looks to have a clear path to the 8th inning?
@Chris: Collins and Herrera would both be above LaTroy and in the same neck of the nape as Joe Smith
Saves & Holds league… I’ve got Farquhar AND Wilhelmson. Would you own both? Wilhelmson was excellent early 2013 then got hurt.
Second, Is Brian Wilson worth owning?
@CL: in deper league t-will is he is behind Farquahr and Rodney from the right side. Furbush from the left so at best third in line.
@Smokey: Yes he is depending on drop, league etc etc
@<a [email protected]CL: =”#comment-2152001″>CL: i’m guessing if you are in a league that has fear the beard a free agent you can find better options than wilhelmsen, possibly even including fear the beard. He’s the 8th inning guy in a huge market, so everyone should know he’s top holds option (or at least think he is). That being the case i’d have to assume there are other guys free from the above list.
Joel Peralta is the cream of the squeezeeee
@matt: if that’s not a pun for “The Trop” then i don’t know what is.
Hey Smoke Monster- Thanks for the list it is extremely helpful!
My league is S+H so the blown saves don’t hurt at all… That being said which 4 do you like best out of these RP? Not really sure if I want elite set up men or below average closers…
Hawkins, Brothers, Crain, Allen, Benoit, Mcghee, Soria, Kintzler, Mujica, JPeralta, C Martinez, Doolittle, Qualls
Thanks a lot!
@ColdNeverBother Sunny Gray: Brothers, Allen, Peralta and then its a toss up for Kintzler Soria and Doolittle
Great article Smokey. Thanks
In 6×6 (OPS/Holds) weekly HTH league.
Pitch stats: W, S, H, ERA, WHIP, K/9
Last year I played 3 or 4 RP’s per week and at least 2 of them were MR.
The K/9, WHIP, and occasional hold was a sweet recipe for success.
I’d love to see this post expanded to bring K/9 ratio and WHIP into play….love to see which guys would go up or down based on projected K/9 and WHIP.
@Titan: k/9 and whips will be in the weekly updates during the season. Thanks for the words and the read.
Great stuff Smokey. Question: I’m looking for a RP with SP eligibility to pick up holds and help with ratios… Gorzelanny or Wade Davis?
I have a beginners questions and I am not sure where to ask it. I am in several leagues over at Yahoo and am unsure how I should go about pitchers. I mainly have starting pitchers and closers. Now there are four spots open for any type of pitcher, what kind of pitcher should I be putting here? Should I go all starting pictures? I actually do not have any middle relievers, was this a big mistake? Please help.
@DL: middle relievers help with keeping your numbers in check. So def invest in some.
@Smokey: Where would I find a list of middle relievers rankings? I find closers and starters under rankings but no middle reliever list.
Thanks again
heyooooooooo
back for another season of Closer/ MR madness. Good stuff, Smokey. Thx for the post.
More deep league Holds stuff — but, I’m also watching how SD handles new Tampa import, Alex Torres. Can imagine a scenario whereby Bud Black starts him in the 6th inn or long man role, and eventually moves him up the chain to a late inning option. Pads are always a wonderful source of holds, so provided he doesn’t get pushed into SP role (in event of injury), I think he’s someone to watch.
Also, any word on JOhnny Venters – and possible return date in 2014?