2013 SAGNOF in Review: The Pitchers

Two weeks ago we looked at the speedsters from 2013 and there were more than a few names on the list that were available on the waiver wire at some point. For deeper leagues and daily fantasy players that need to maximize each and every matchup, even the smallest advantages can mean the difference between a win and a loss. That’s why we focused a lot on matchups this past year, and we’ll do it again in 2014. Even the best base stealers get caught once in a while, so it’s good to know as much as we can about who might be doing the catching before deploying our fantasy lineups. There’s a lot that goes into a stolen base, of course, and the battery of pitcher and catcher is a large piece of the puzzle. Pitchers who are good at holding baserunners can be avoided while pitchers who have a tendency to cough up a lot of steals can be exploited. Here’s how some starters fared in 2013 and over the last three years against the stolen base.

Keeping in mind that there is a catcher in the other end of these batteries as well, the arms on the right side of the table pitched a heck of a lot of innings and gave up very few steals. The Angels were just all around bad at holding baserunners and they appeared as a green light match up most weeks, so it’s no surprise to see Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton here. On the other hand, I felt like Matt Harvey, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Patrick Corbin, and Chris Tillman were worth highlighting given their remarkable numbers and the fact that they are relatively young.

The chart below is the same idea but includes the 2011 and 2012 seasons for good measure. Obviously there are some names that appear in both charts and are probably best avoided when trying to glean steals out of a particular match-up. Also, there are some lower innings counts on the right side even with the 450 IP minimum, so bear that in mind when comparing two guys like Jhoulys Chacin and Ian Kennedy. I highlighted some names that stood out to me.

Avoiding Cliff Lee is probably a good idea given the stingy steals allowed and the fact that his IP over the last three years is the number of the Beast. Kyle Lohse benefited from allowing only one steal back in 2011 which I at first thought must have had just as much to do with Yadier Molina as anything else. But looking closer, Molina only caught 29% of basestealers that year (compared to his usual 40% + rate in 2010, 2012, and 2013).

Thanks for reading. Speaking of catchers and their CS%, next time we’ll take a look at how the backstops fared, and then it’s on to some 2014 sleepers and strategies. I hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving in the meantime.

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