I was originally excited to focus on Baby Thor Mike Clevinger in my first post taking over the Two-Start Starters for [email protected], but the rainout on Thursday threw everything out of whack. So, I had to pivot and focus on what’s going on in Seattle. Enter Ariel Miranda and Sam Gaviglio.

Of the two starters for the Mariners right now, Miranda is the one to target. To be honest, neither one is likely to be a long-term fix for your rotation. Gaviglio is a 27-year old who has an ERA of 4.01 over seven seasons in the minor leagues, while Miranda is a 28-year old Cuban who had moderate success in the Cuban National Series and the minors. Both are scheduled to start two games next week for the Mariners.

At first glance, it would appear that Gaviglio is the tasty treat that a starter-needy fantasy owner should target. After all, he has the shiny 1.29 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Unfortunately, not only is that a very small sample size, but there are some pretty serious red flags. For starters, while he only gave up one run against the Nationals, he only struck out one batter in six innings. That shiny ERA is also aided by the fact that he actually gave up five runs, but just the one was earned. Against the White Sox in his previous start, he went five innings and only struck out two batters. In his two starts this season, he has thrown 11 innings and struck out just three batters.

But that’s not it, here is the bigger issue with Gaviglio. His ERA might be 1.29, but his FIP currently sits at 4.22. At 2.93, his FIP-to-ERA ratio is the highest of any of the 40+ two-start starters in week 9. Between his lack of strikeouts, his lackluster career in the minors, and his inflated FIP-to-ERA ratio, you better believe he is going to regress to the mean sooner rather than later. Ignore that ERA and stay away from Sammy G.

As for Miranda, I like him more and hate him less. While he doesn’t have the same sub-2.00 ERA as Gaviglio, he does have an 8.75 K/9, a less hideous .40 FIP-to-ERA, and a 5.77 K/9-to-BB/9 ratio. While he has had a couple of disastrous starts this season, he also has six starts in which he has given up two runs or fewer. You could do worse than Miranda as a two-starter starter. In fact, you could have Gaviglio. Both should be available in more than 75% of leagues. Despite the fact that the Mariners visit the Rockies next week, there are worse options for two-start starters…

Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent 8 toughest or 8 easiest opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days.

THE BEST

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Clayton Kershaw LAD @STL, @MIL 2.70/2.81 9.04/1.00
Chris Sale BOS @CHW, @BAL 2.89/1.79 8.49/2.43
Jacob deGrom NYM MIL, PIT 4.27/3.42 12.29/3.72

THE REPLICAS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Jose Berrios MIN HOU, @LAA 0.64/2.15 9.14/1.66
Sonny Gray OAK @CLE, WAS 4.76/4.99 12.45/1.73
Michael Wacha STL LAD, @CHC 3.46/3.53 8.23/2.53
Kyle Hendricks CHC @SD, STL 4.07/4.53 7.35/3.08
Robbie Ray ARI @PIT, @MIA 4.14/4.24 11.04/4.92
Luis Severino NYY @BAL, @TOR 3.72/3.76 9.98/2.29

THE STANDARDS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Trevor Bauer CLE OAK, @KC 6.91/4.90 10.62/3.24
Julio Teheran ATL @LAA, @CIN 5.84/5.47 6.83/4.07
Charlie Morton HOU @MIN, @TEX 4.41/4.20 10.14/3.59
Jose Quintana CHW BOS, @DET 4.02/4.06 8.76/3.50
Ariel Miranda SEA @COL, TB 4.40/4.80 8.75/2.98
Marcus Stroman TOR CIN, NYY 3.11/3.37 7.32/2.73
Mike Leake STL LAD, @CHC 2.37/3.37 6.16/1.47
Drew Pomeranz BOS @CHW, @BAL 5.11/4.55 10.66/3.79
Ervin Santana MIN HOU, @LAA 1.80/4.29 6.43/3.47

THE KNOCKOFFS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Justin Verlander DET @KC, CHW 4.75/4.20 8.78/4.23
Jason Hammel KC DET, CLE 6.97/5.12 7.33/3.66
Matt Garza MIL @NYM, LAD 3.15/3.67 6.94/1.54
Edinson Volquez MIA PHI, ARI 5.08/5.02 8.29/5.59
Chris Tillman BAL NYY, BOS 3.93/3.22 6.64/3.98
Jesse Hahn OAK @CLE, WAS 4.34/2.98 7.43/3.26
Erasmo Ramirez TB @TEX, @SEA 3.21/3.51 6.25/1.50
Tanner Roark WAS @SF, @OAK 4.86/4.48 7.71/3.24
Dylan Bundy BAL NYY, BOS 3.62/4.14 6.40/2.64
Jeremy Hellickson PHI @MIA, SF 4.16/5.53 3.62/2.14
Sam Gaviglio SEA @COL, TB 1.29/4.22 4.85/2.08
Tyler Anderson COL SEA, @SD 6.26/5.37 9.19/3.00

THE 

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Jarred Cosart SD CHC, COL 3.00/4.05 4.50/6.19
Randall Delgado ARI @PIT, @MIA 3.82/3.98 7.92/1.76
Masahiro Tanaka NYY @BAL, @TOR 7.03/6.31 7.31/2.81
Ricky Nolasco LAA ATL, MIN 4.14/5.64 7.96/2.50
Lisalverto Bonilla CIN @TOR, ATL 6.83/6.22 6.17/4.24
Tyler Chatwood COL SEA, @SD 5.19/5.45 7.35/4.65
Robert Gsellman NYM MIL, PIT 8.49/4.77 6.65/3.02
Daniel Wright LAA ATL, MIN 5.54/4.76 4.85/4.15
Zach Davies MIL @NYM, LAD 5.60/5.35 7.19/3.69
Martin Perez TEX TB, HOU 3.86/4.10 6.28/3.61
Trevor Williams PIT ARI, @NYM 6.38/5.97 6.53/3.26
Matt Moore SF WAS, @PHI 5.58/4.88 7.60/3.72

All pitchers are projected for two starts as of Friday night.

  • Ervin Santana MIN – I know what you’re thinking right now. “Hey, Mike. You have Ervin Santana way too low on this list. Surely you have watched him pitch this year. You suck at this! We want [email protected] back!” To which I say, hey, I miss him too, but we have to move on. I’m doing my best here! Oh, and that isn’t a mistake. Santana’s 2.49 FIP-to-ERA ratio is second only to, you guessed it, Sam Gaviglio on this list. Santana’s ERA, as we all now know, is sitting at 1.80, but his 4.29 FIP and his career up until this point suggest that a regression is coming. Look, some genius on Twitter even said so:

Add in the fact that Santana, while brilliant in many starts this season, has also been lit the &^@% up by the Red Sox and Rockies this season. Throw in a 3.47 BB/9 and a 2.96 K9/BB9, and you can already see the trouble ahead. Sell. Sell. For the love of everything holy, SELL.

  • Robert Gsellman NYM – On the other side of the FIP-to-ERA equation is Gsellman, who earns to honor for the best ratio of the week with a -3.72. Unfortunately, his ERA is 8.49, so his FIP is still up there at 4.77. Translation: he’s still not great, but he isn’t THAT bad. He’s not 8.49 ERA bad. He re-entered the rotation last week after a brief and unimpressive stint in the bullpen for the Mets, and he went ahead and tossed a quality start against the Padres. Neat, right? Oh, you don’t like a guy with an 8.49 ERA who doesn’t strike anyone out? But the FIP! You should totally roll the dice on Gsellman as a two-start pitcher this week. Just kidding. You shouldn’t. Seriously, though, you shouldn’t. Please, don’t.

As you have probably figured out already, I am taking over this Two-Start Starters series for [email protected] I’ll also be doing the Top-100 Hitters series. [email protected] is incredible, so I will try to do my best to fill his shoes. Make sure you follow [email protected] on Twitter to keep in touch and get personal advice.

DROP THOSE COMMENTS!

If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!

  1. Matthew ALEXANDER says:
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    What about Norris?

    • Joeg414 says:
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      @Matthew ALEXANDER:
      Was going to ask the same . He gets KC and maybe CWS on Sunday

      • mikeMaher

        mikeMaher says:
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        @Joeg414:

        Yeah, that got changed after I submitted this for review. He gets KC and then CWS on Sunday now.

        • Midget Mafia says:
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          @mikeMaher:
          So where would you rank him?

          • mikeMaher

            mikeMaher says:
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            @Midget Mafia:

            Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
            Daniel Norris DET @KC, CHW 4.38/3.81 8.03/4.20

            I like Norris overall but he still walks too many guys and doesn’t strike out enough. I would put him in the knockoffs tier between Volquez and Tillman.

  2. Boby says:
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    Mike, correction :

    Clayton kershaw isn’t a two start pitcher for week 9, he’s going tomorrow afternoon in LA hosting the Cubs he’ll be facing Jon Lester

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Boby:

      Yup, you’re right. That changed after I submitted. He’s off the list and now David Price is on it.

  3. VictoriaB

    VictoriaB says:
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    Man, the starter changes are aggravating this week (I had to pivot and change my Saturday DFS lede about 3 times, haha)!

    Thanks for the great and helpful post, Mike. Good to see you taking this on, too.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @VictoriaB:

      Thanks, appreciate that.

      And yeah, is it just me or are there a ton of rainouts this year?

        • mikeMaher

          mikeMaher says:
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          @VictoriaB:

          Wow, that is pretty crazy. It feels like the Midwest, in particular, has been getting hammered with rainouts.

          • Mantis Toboggan MD says:
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            @mikeMaher: yep, we’ve had our two wettest spring/summers possibly ever in last 2 years. but no climate changing of course, we wouldn’t want to cost anybody a few million

  4. happyharry says:
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    12 team, 6×6, H2H. What two SP’s are you dropping out of this bunch to bring up IR? Glasnow, Eickhoff, Gausman, Pomeranz, M. Moore…..Thanks,

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @happyharry:

      Eickhoff and Gausman.

  5. Chucky says:
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    Have a somewhat embarrassment of riches in the rotation. 12 team H2H cats. Two start Wacha and Gray available over any single game starters? [email protected], [email protected], JCRam v Minny, Nola @Mia, Vargas v Clev and my newest BFF Manea @ Clev. I need two from that suddenly very attractive pitching staff. Thanks in advance.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Chucky:

      I like [email protected] and [email protected], though we have to think that a Godley regression is coming soon. 1.99/3.23 ERA to FIP, and he’s been a 3-4 ERA/FIP guy in the minors. I would like Wacha and Gray more if they had better matchups. They both have two pretty tough draws. Of those two I trust Wacha more this week.

  6. Andrew says:
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    Seems like Chatwood and/or Anderson would be good starts this week. Why doesn’t Chatwood get more live when his era and whip are better than Anderson?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Andrew:

      Thanks for reading, Andrew.

      BB/9, K/9, and inconsistency. Chatwood is walking more than 4 1/2 per nine innings. And if you look at his starts, for every quality start he also has an implosion. Walking that many and not having better swing-and-miss stuff is a recipe for disaster, which is why he sometimes gets into trouble that he can’t get out of. I gave Anderson the tier bump because he has four straight solid outings in a row (3 quality starts and a 5 2/3 outing). In those four starts he struck out 10, 8, 7, and 7 and only walked 1 or 2 each start.

      • Andrew says:
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        Awesome! Thanks for helping me make a better decision on who to stream and pick up! Have a great holiday weekend bud! Good Werk

        • mikeMaher

          mikeMaher says:
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          @Andrew:

          Appreciate it. You do the same!

  7. Dan S says:
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    I thought Maeda was a 2 start pitcher next week? If that’s correct, where would you rank him? Thanks!

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Dan S:

      Yeah, he wasn’t originally but is now after some things got moved around. I would put him in The Standards right above Pomeranz.

      • Dan S says:
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        @mikeMaher: Thanks! Appreciate all the work you put into this

        • mikeMaher

          mikeMaher says:
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          @Dan S:

          Thanks. Really appreciate you taking the time to read and comment.

  8. David Nadelle says:
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    Where would you put Peacock assuming he does two this week in lace of Morton?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @David Nadelle:

      Man, he’s a wild card to consider. Looked good in his last start, but it was a short one. History says his 13.06/5.23 K9/BB9 is more likely an 8/4 split, which is much worse. He was walking almost a batter per inning out of the bullpen this year and then walked two in 4 1/3 during his start. He has been pitching well, though, and has given up just 8 hits in more than 20 innings.

      I think I would throw him somewhere in the middle of the Knockoffs tier, but honestly, that is more of a guess than anything else until we see some more starts from him.

      • David Nadelle says:
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        @mikeMaher:

        Thanks Mike! Great write up…

        • mikeMaher

          mikeMaher says:
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          @David Nadelle:

          Thanks! Appreciate that.

  9. Surfer dude says:
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    thoughts on Daniel Mengden 2 starts, @ CLE/ Carrasco and home to WAS/ Ross – thanks

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Surfer dude:

      Daniel Mengden has been a walking injury throughout his career, so he is hard to peg. He was pretty bad for the A’s last year but has been good in AAA so far after coming off the disabled list. Personally, I don’t love his matchups for this callup. If it’s a weekly league it’s a really risky gamble to run him out there for two starts.

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