Two Start Cookie Shop: May 5-11

This week’s biggest question mark is probably out in Arizona. Corbin Burnes was originally lined up to be a part of this list, but it was announced that a shoulder issue means he will be getting skipped at least one turn through the rotation. Ryne Nelson is being widely speculated as being the man to take the hill on Monday, but that has not been made official at the time of submission. As a result, he is not included in any of the tiers below.

Also, it seems like there’s a disproportionate number of teams who have “TBD” lined up to start the week. That means there’s an annoyingly high chance that a few names are either irrelevant or missing from this list by the time you read it. Teams really need to be more considerate of my needs and have their rotations locked down by Saturday afternoons, if you ask me.

Beyond that, it’s not a bad week for our purposes, but not amazing either. There are a few of the guys you drafted to be your staff aces, but it levels out pretty quickly. At that point, it’s a whole lot of risk vs upside or just plain boring. Even down amongst the fortune cookies are guys who are more “meh” that out-and-out putrid. What that means is there is a lot less clear division than some other weeks. A gap of 5-10 spots or a difference in tier doesn’t necessarily indicate as strong of a preference as it may seem. You may say that sounds like a cop out, but I want to be honest with you. It really just feels like a lot of the same throughout the batch. So follow where your gut and the numbers you prefer take you, because mine is somewhat unsettled this week.

What follows are our projections at time of writing as to who will be making two-starts this week, but weather, injuries, and secretive team management mean they are just that: projections. To stay as up-to-date as possible, consult Rudy Gamble’s invaluable Streamonator.

Chocolate Chip Cookies (Must Start)

They are kings of the cookie world for a reason. A warm, freshly baked chocolate chip cookie just makes you feel happy. Sort of like getting to set your rosters knowing you get two starts this week from these guys.

• The Braves have followed the standard 5-man rotation more than they did last year, but it isn’t a guarantee. With Sale lined up for Tuesday, be aware that you may only get him once this week. You want to start him regardless, of course.
• They’re saying he’s healthy and ready to go this week. I’m choosing to believe them.

Sugar Cookies (Should Start)

They’re fine. You could certainly do worse than having these guys in your lineup, but don’t expect it to be remarkable.

• Pivetta probably deserves to be in the tier above, but the matchups are icky. You’re definitely going to start him, it just might not be quite as good as you’d like.
• Canning is easily my biggest departure from Streamonator this week. It really doesn’t like him. Like, not at all. I understand why, as he’s Griffin Canning and those matchups are pretty gross. He’s been pretty good so far, though, and it’s not like there are a lot of clearly better options otherwise. I don’t blame you if you feel differently, but I told you above to follow where your gut takes you. Mine took me here.

Oatmeal Raisin Cookies (Could Start)

These aren’t for everyone. These are the pitchers that may be a pleasant surprise, or they could ruin your week. Tread lightly.

• On the one hand, it feels wrong to have Gallen this low. On the other hand, he hasn’t been particularly good this season, and those are not the teams you would write down first for “make good” matchups. On the third, surprise hand, the Diamondbacks rotation questions mean he might only make one start anyway.
• Based on performance, Sandy probably deserves to be in the bottom tier. The Dodgers being his first matchup means that I’d be terrified of starting him myself. But the machine is much more bullish on his chances. So he’s here as a compromise.

Fortune Cookies (Do Not Start)

Yeah, they’re technically cookies. Hold on, what does that little slip of paper say? “Bad times are heading your way.” Oh. Okay, then.

• This is what I mean. Am I really sure Burke is less worth starting this week than Sandy or Giolito? Not particularly. But the line has to be drawn somewhere, and he was it.
• Abbott is probably the cutoff for where I’m able to see the argument for starting him this week. After him come the guys who are firm and definite passes for me.
• Of course, as soon as I say that I’m going to say Casparius intrigues me. However, it’s not yet confirmed that he’s actually being transitioned to the rotation. Even if he is, I would be shocked if he went five innings. Maybe he could do it if he got that second start, but I want to see it first.