We got fantasy starters! *rings a town crier bell* We got the top 60 starters for 2025 fantasy baseball! There’s a “So many starters to draft” theme cutting through the starters rankings, and that theme continues. Also, Razzball Subscriptions are up and running, and that comes with our online Fantasy Baseball War Room. Here’s Steamer’s 2025 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2025 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2025 fantasy baseball:
NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
NOTE III: Watch Bdon and I discuss the starter rankings:
RETURN TO THE TOP 40 STARTERS FOR 2025 FANTASY BASEBALL
41. Shohei Ohtani – This tier began in top 40 starters and ends here. I called this tier, “Raining cold water on the pants tent.” As for Ohtani, went over him in the top 10 for fantasy baseball, but this ranking is for him if he’s *only* a starter for the few leagues out there that separate him, which I think is under 5% of leagues, but here ya go, you five-percenters. UPDATE: The less progress he’s made and the vague proclamations by Dave Roberts about when Ohtani will get back to the mound has me fading him in “Shohei Ohtani is a Pitcher Only” leagues, and only those leagues, because you can’t IL him while you wait, so it’s a dead spot on your roster for a month or maybe more. 2025 Projections: 8-4/2.96/1.08/134 in 103 IP
42. Seth Lugo – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Suarez. I call this tier, “Sideways bosom.” There’s safety in numbers. The number three, for unstints, is safe. The number 3 also looks like a sideways bosom. What’s more comforting! These pitchers should be a fantasy number 3 like a sideways bosom. This is a repeat of last year’s fantasy number three tier name, because I like to keep things samesies for when I put together my pitching draft tool. It makes things easier for me.
As for Lugo, feels similar to Sonny Gray to a certain degree. Lugo has less Ks, a lot less, but otherwise similar. Here’s what I think happens: Fantasy people who are super basic look at a guy’s ERA, so people who consider themselves analysts mock people who look at ERA, it’s dumb they shout, then there’s people who are total galaxy brainers like myself who look at a guy who has 847 2/3 career innings with a 3.38 ERA and say, “Okay, maybe Seth Lugo isn’t great according to his peripherals but he’s still been great.” Here it is expressed in meme:
2025 Projections: 13-9/3.43/1.12/171 in 192 IP
43. Reynaldo Lopez – “How stacked is starting pitching?” you ask casually as you wait for a root beer at a Stewart’s drive-thru. The first two guys in this tier would’ve buoyed any fantasy team’s staff last year — easily! You would’ve been freakin’ thrilled to have these guys. Like over the moon screaming, “Whee!!!” Reynaldo Lopez had a 1.99 ERA last year. That is not a typo. Oh, and his peripherals were better than Seth Lugo. If he had the same number of wins as Seth Lugo, he would’ve been the 8th best starter last year. You’re getting that as your number three and you really think you need to draft starters high? C’mon, man. 2025 Projections: 11-9/3.61/1.15/177 in 164 IP
44. Zach Eflin – I keep the tier names the same year after year in my starter ranks, so it makes it easier for me to update the pitchers’ pairing tool, but if I were to rename this tier, it would be, “The moment when I realized there’s so many freakin’ starters, holy crap.” Another name for this tier is, “ERA is a category in your league so why are you ignoring it? Oh and WHIP too.” People’s brains have really been coopted by Big K. Not K-Mart’s weird rebranding that didn’t work, but Big K as in the people telling you to chase strikeouts. Or the people telling you to chase stuff. Sometimes raw stuff is good, but these are redraft rankings and we’re trying to win this year. Who cares if a guy has a nasty curve or some dirty eh-eff pitch? I just want a guy who is going to throw 160 IP and not be awful. Bit worried about the changes in Camden and what it will mean for their pitchers, but Eflin’s a righty, so that might mitigate that and what should also mitigate his lesser outcomes is his absolutely gorgeous command. Looking for a guy who could be this year’s Seth Lugo, look no further. 2025 Projections: 12-9/3.64/1.09/164 in 171 IP
45. Nathan Eovaldi – Re-signed with the Rangers, and no one ever likes Eovaldi, except for me and the Rangers. About as lock down for solid stats that will never, ever, ever, ever having you say, “Damn, I’m glad I drafted Eovaldi.” He’s the stereotypical starter that you Ron Popeil into your fantasy lineup and never, ever, ever, ever think about again. He’s so boringly perfect I can’t even stretch out this blurb with my usual jibber-jabbering and I twice repeated “ever” three times. 2025 Projections: 12-9/3.71/1.13/162 in 167 IP
46. Ranger Suarez – If I can get him this late I will do a literal cartwheel at my fantasy draft, while also not being particularly motivated to rank him higher. He’s perfectly ranked by me. You’re welcome. Lucky for you (and me), his ADP is way after this. He’s barely being drafted in the top 75 starters in some places. Mmkay, I say derisively. He was just a top 40 starter last year and his career ERA is 3.42 in 604 2/3 IP. You guys and five girl readers are making it harder for yourself than need be. If a guy is valuable for multiple years, but doesn’t have elite strikeouts, it doesn’t mean he was lucky, per se. Suarez has an elite ground ball rate, as long as he’s not unlucky, neither will we. UPDATE: Dealing with a stiff back. 2025 Projections: 10-7/3.56/1.24/134 in 142 IP
47. Robbie Ray – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Pepiot. I call this tier, “Bosom buddies.” This tier is you being optimistic. This tier is you chasing bliss, but there’s a chance you’ll never get there. This tier is slightly different than the above, Sideways Bosom. They’re potentially higher upside guys in this tier, but with a higher level of risk. In other words, the safety of the bosom doesn’t feel as strong with them. They’re friends of the bosom. Call ’em Bosom Buddies. In general terms, these guys are risky number threes or high number fours.
As for Ray, there’s a ton of starters returning from Tommy John surgery. A ton of solid starters returning. Some threw last year and some did not. Separating the ones who should be good to go from the jump vs. others who have return dates some time [waves hand] in the future. This was a note to myself from last April:
Last April is key there. It does not account for every injured starter, but look at the “returning from TJ” guys. Did you get anything from them last year? Ray was due back after the All-Star Break, and returned in September; Buehler needed 20 months to return and wasn’t himself all year, which is an understatement with how bad he was and Dustin May never returned, though it was a bit fluky with an injury to his esophagus, which gives me shudders to type. Anyway, all guys are different, but you’re confidently drafting McClanahan, Strider and deGrom this year? I’m sorry, ain’t gonna be me. Ray returned and looked fine in September so, yes, I’m fine with him. 2025 Projections: 9-12/3.87/1.23/187 in 163 IP
48. Cristopher Sanchez – I usually don’t look at minor league track record for guys who have had as much MLB experience as Sanchez, but I randomly clicked his MiLB stats and ha! I don’t know if the Phils’ minor league coaches were telling him to throw the ball outside the zone on purpose, but his walk rate was regularly over 5 BB/9, and in the majors it’s barely 2. This is why TINSTAAPP — There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect — still resonates. Great pitching prospects never click and guys who don’t seem like much suddenly fix their mechanics. If Sanchez continues to do a 8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t, then, well, if he had same number of wins as teammate Nola, Sanchez would’ve been a top 25 starter last year. 2025 Projections: 12-8/3.41/1.21/161 in 183 IP
49. Nick Pivetta – Signed with the Padres. I like Pivetta a lot, and then I look at his 4.76 career ERA in 1029 1/3 IP and I do a small little shake of the head, take a shot of vodka from a shot glass with Ketel Marte’s face on it and shake my head more. Lots of head shaking. After two more shots of Ketel, I’m able to draft Pivetta because he has a good WHIP, great Ks and a good ERA, in theory. 2025 Projections: 10-8/4.03/1.14/177 in 141 IP
50. Ryan Pepiot – So, this is a hedge. I don’t want to reach for Pepiot, but if he falls, I will take a flyer on him. He’s pretty buried a bit in my rankings. For unstints, Pepiot is being drafted before Eflin, and I have Eflin way in front of him, so it’s very unlikely I will be drafting Pepiot. In theory, he’s in a positive tier and worth drafting, but I’m fine with someone else taking the chance on Pepiot. My problem is pretty straightforward. Rays are in Big Stein Stadium and its goofy short right field, and Pepiot gives up a lot of homers, especially to lefties. Pepiot might be already shortlisted for a 2026 sleeper, when the Rays are out of the Stein like a Heineken. 2025 Projections: 9-11/3.92/1.19/172 in 156 IP
51. Spencer Arrighetti – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Francis. I call this tier, “Dorf on Golf Presents: Fore!” This tier is filled with fourth starters who could go way wide of their intended target. I’m drafting them, but there’s a reason these guys aren’t number twos or threes. Most tiers have some commonality. Maybe they’re 8-ish K/9 and 2.5-ish BB/9 guys? Maybe they’re 9-ish K/9 and 2-ish BB/9 guys? Something like that. This tier? There’s nothing in common, except I like them a little bit more than the next favorable tier and a little bit less than the last. If the last tier was low number threes or high number fours, this is “just okay” number fours. When I release my pitchers’ pairing tool, you’ll see you can draft from the last tier or this tier at the same time. So, I usually say one tier’s players are all interchangeable, but is there any difference between, say, Arrighetti and Pepiot? Meh, Pepiot feels safer, Arrighetti is a tad bit more upside, but they’re not that different.
As for Arrighetti, already gave you my Spencer Arrighetti sleeper. It was written while going caca-cuckoo. 2025 Projections: 11-9/3.61/1.32/204 in 172 IP
52. Shane Baz – A reminder that the list of injured starters in Robbie Ray’s blurb isn’t exhaustive as Shane Baz returned from Tommy John last year. He had Tommy John in September of 2022. He was a popular sleeper in last year’s drafts and he barely charted last year for fantasy. People were assuming May for his return; he returned in July and threw 79 1/3 IP with very iffy results. His Ks were way down (10 K/9 to 7.8) and his walks were up (barely). A recurring theme in my rankings are “I don’t know what to make of Rays starters in Big Stein Stadium.” I’m fine with drafting Baz, and he does have upside, but he’s less safe than Pepiot, say. 2025 Projections: 7-8/3.86/1.26/138 in 146 IP
53. Taj Bradley – I might be remembering this wrong, but I think Taj is the first starter I like and would draft who hasn’t had any decent results but instead *hopes and dreams* of good results. It’s super easy for me to check if he is the first that fits that criteria, but I’m lazy. This is later in the rankings, though, and Taj’s upside calls out to me at this point. Taj was around the 60th best starter last year, so this ranking isn’t asking that much of him. Be a little better, Taj Mah-ace, is all I ask. I do love starters about to go into their third season, as he is, and his 10+ K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 are pretty. Worried a bit about his home runs allowed in his new park, but young and ace-stuff has me hoping he can go from the fryer pan to “solid flyer.” 2025 Projections: 10-10/3.89/1.19/178 in 162 IP
54. Bowden Francis – Building on what I said in the Taj blurb, the starters are getting riskier now. It’s inevitable when you get deeper in ranks. If these guys were safer, they’d be ranked higher. Francis Black aka Bowden Francis aka Guy with 140 2/3 career innings of which only 77 are as a starter, and I’m trusting him. It helps that his stats for those 77 IP were 2.92 ERA, .190 BAA and a 1.5 BB/9 with a 5.6 K/BB and 20.7 K-BB%, which would’ve been 11th in the league if he qualified, and was 16th in the league in the 2nd half and is the last of the 16 to be ranked. Said this a lot in the past, but not sure I’ve mentioned it this year (YET!). If you lost your starter rankings right before a draft, you could just draft based on the previous season’s K-BB. 2025 Projections: 9-7/3.79/1.11/132 in 143 IP
55. Kevin Gausman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until top 80 starters. I call this tier, “Broke and getting brokener or unbrokener but not on my teams.” This tier is one of the easiest for me to ignore. I don’t believe in drafting starters who are hurt. Also, when we get to March, and (insert pitcher’s name who was believed to be hurt) looks good, it doesn’t mean we suddenly flip the switch and start drafting them, because (insert pitcher’s name who was believed to be hurt) still has six months to get hurt. This tier doesn’t include only starters who are returning from injury. It also includes a guy like Gausman who just looks broke.
As for Gausman, projections expect him to bounce back, and I understand why it’s like this, at least I think I do. If you’re weighing his past season into projections, you’re not ignoring two years ago and only weighing last year, but my problem is once an aging starter declines does he just regain past form because he was good two years ago? At a certain point, a 34-year-old is not regaining lost form, only losing. His velocity was down, and his pitches just aren’t as tight as they once were. His splitter was still damn good, and I wonder a bit if he was tipping his janky pitches, because his fall-off was really fall-offy. One of the worst of recent times, but it’s not worth the headache to get back in. 2025 Projections: 12-9/3.79/1.24/157 in 171 IP
56. Grayson Rodriguez – Thinking about Lifetime ADP again, as mentioned in the Webb blurb (Weblurb?), and I don’t think we know Grayson’s lifetime ADP yet, but he’s been around this exact same place two years in a row. I’m assuming at some point he breaks out and has a six-month-long solid season. We haven’t seen that yet, though. Last year looks like a case where it was just unlucky when he went down with a lat strain on July 31st, and never returned. If I had to guess, Grayson’s going to be a top 10 starter for a good five to seven years starting next year. This feels like one of those situations where we’re going to be able to capitalize on a guy who was out with a non-arm injury causing his ADP to be suppressed, and the last time we get a discount on him for a while. I liked him so much that I had him in the next tier of guys I want everywhere, but I want Grayson more than that and moved him up to this tier. Dreaming about a team where I have Zac Gallen and Grayson and people in March are like, “Meh, you have question marks,” then I win that league. UPDATE: Grayson threw 89 MPH the other day, and people were like, “That’s cool, he’s working on a knuckleball. Right? Right….?” Only those dots after the 2nd “Right” lasted for 48 hours and when someone poked the speaker to see if they were still alive, they weren’t. Thankfully, they were resuscitated! Whew! Checking in with the Grayson Rodriguez Fan Club, which is in the backroom of a Maryland-area Kiwanis Club where they’ve printed Grayson Rodriguez Fan Club on the back of a Matt Wieters Fan Club sign — not a great omen! — and they said Grayson was just working on something and his velocity is nothing to be concerned about. It’s only eight to nine miles per hour off his uze. Nothing to see here! So, I docked him 40 IP, but I imagine the next step is taking him out of the rankings completely as he goes for surgery or is shut down.2025 Projections: 10-7/3.51/1.14/139 in 127 IP
57. Kodai Senga – Most of the guys in this tier isn’t about me drilling down on their stats to see what I project them for and where that is in relation to other starters, but is me going on Twitter and searching for a guy’s name and seeing what the latest injury news is. With Senga? I haven’t the foggiest what’s going on with him, because search functions no longer work. Assuming he’s fine because he pitched in the postseason. Well, “fine” is subjective. He was pretty bad in the postseason. Logically, I think he will be rusty at best, and not really healthy at worst. I don’t know, and I don’t really want to draft starters who my conclusion on them is “I don’t know.” 2025 Projections: 9-4/3.66/1.26/139 in 124 IP
58. Spencer Strider – Braves have already said Strider won’t be ready to start the season. Thank you for being upfront with us. Sung like Tupac, “You are appreciated.” As mentioned in the Robbie Ray blurb, all pitchers return at different rates. Just because Shane Baz took 24 months, and Robbie Ray took 15 and Strider *only* had an internal brace vs. Tommy John means: Question mark, hmm, hand on chin. I’m guessing Strider returns in May, but June/July might be more realistic. Internal brace surgery is supposed to be a 10-12 month recovery time, but there’s a lot fewer examples. 2025 Projections: 7-2/3.44/1.18/162 in 126 IP
59. Shane McClanahan – He was supposedly throwing 94 to 95 MPH in his rehab, and I think that was a positive sign, but before surgery he was throwing 97, so [shrugs]. The other problem with the starters returning from injury is how many innings are they realistically throwing? McClananananananananan is really returning to throw 175 IP? It’s a little nuts to think a guy is going to return and make a new career high in innings. 2025 Projections: 8-4/3.37/1.22/144 in 137 IP
60. Sandy Alcantara – The bravery of people drafting Alcantara is the kind of courage I dream about having. Yeah, he could be a steal this late, just don’t think about all the other Tommy John recipients that took a half-to-full season back to get into their groove. Am I more confident about starters returning from Tommy John than shoulder surgery? Yes, you haven’t seen Woodruff yet, but still I’m way too risk averse with starters to get in on Alcantara. For reference sake, the tier that corresponds with guys I was avoiding last year in this range was headlined by Chris Sale — oops! — and was also Cristian Javier (member him?), Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, Lucas Giolito, Eury Perez and Carlos Rodon. Honestly, sucks on Sale and Rodon, to a lesser extent, but avoiding those guys was mostly the right move. 2025 Projections: 8-9/3.56/1.07/128 in 141 IP
CONTINUE ONTO THE TOP 80 STARTERS FOR 2025 FANTASY BASEBALL
