Top 20 Starters for 2020 Fantasy Baseball, a Recap

All the final 2020 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2020 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for next year (caps for those who can’t read titles; supposedly it’s easier to read caps, I have my doubts). This is a recap. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t know. Not entirely. Entirely. Like when you had a knee replacement, this is a recap! To recapitulate the recap, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  We’re (me’re) using it to fairly gauge our (my) preseason rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2020 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Shane Bieber – Out of these top 20, I didn’t want to draft Bieber, Cole and deGrom, because they were just too highly drafted. I also didn’t want Kershaw, Davies, Burnes, Gonzales and Bundy, but those last four weren’t that I didn’t want them, but they were just so buried, I wasn’t really drafting them, and, in shallower leagues, I would’ve picked them up early on, because why not? So, really, three highly ranked pitchers and Kershaw out of 20 pitchers. 16 of these guys you could’ve owned. You need how many great pitchers on your fantasy team? Four? You don’t need 16 starters on one team? Wow. So, you really still think you need to draft a starter high? This is only the top 20 starters too, there’s still at least another 20 starters you could’ve chosen from, and streamers. Streamers! I mean, c’mon. It’s just disingenuous to say you need a top starter. Preseason Rank #4, 2020 Projections: 6-3/2.81/1.01/92 in 76 IP, Final Numbers: 8-1/1.63/0.87/122 in 77 1/3 IP

2. Yu Darvish – Something I want to point out after saying there’s something I want to point out, there’s a bunch of pitchers I loved whose rankings seem way off, but that’s pitchers for you. In some leagues, Darvish was the 1st pitcher I was drafting. So, he might’ve been ranked 13th by me in January, but if you followed my rankings, it was clear I was drafting Darvish as a number one. Put together his 2nd half of last year and this year, and that’s one fine-looking Yu! Preseason Rank #13, 2020 Projections: 5-4/3.41/1.09/86 in 67 IP, Final Numbers: 8-3/2.01/0.96/93 in 76 IP

3. Trevor Bauer – Same verse as Darvish — Darverse? — because you know I wanted to draft Bauer in all leagues, but him as my number two, which is exactly what I did. People with aluminum foil on their head pretending your fantasy team is screwed if you don’t draft a starter in the top 25 overall are hilarious, but threatening to common sense, so keep them at arm’s length. Preseason Rank #23, 2020 Projections: 5-3/3.61/1.16/96 in 80 IP, Final Numbers: 5-4/1.73/0.79/100 in 73 IP

4. Kenta Maeda – I didn’t just write one Maeda sleeper post; I wrote like six Maeda sleeper posts. If you remember back to January, which feels like it was six years ago, in just about every pitcher sleeper post, I mentioned Maeda and how he was showing up in every list for guys who would break out. In general, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that my fantasy pitching staffs did well. In every league, you could’ve owned Darvish, Bauer and Maeda on the same team and not drafted a starter in the top 50 overall. But you need to draft a top starter! Haha, stop. Preseason Rank #39, 2020 Projections: 4-2/3.67/1.10/60 in 56 IP, Final Numbers: 6-1/2.70/0.75/80 in 66 2/3 IP

5. Gerrit Cole – Everyone was drafting Cole in the top 10 overall. No one ranked him as low as me. Yet, the Pantsy Fros will tell you someone ranked Zach Davies 80th and 30 spots above his ADP, and that somehow makes that ranker better than someone telling you not to draft Gerrit Cole. 1,000,000th example of why ranking rankings is so dumb. Like anyone looks at nothing but rankings and drafts off them too. It’s so dumb! Preseason Rank #1, 2020 Projections: 6-2/2.61/0.93/109 in 77 IP, Final Numbers: 7-3/2.84/0.96/94 in 73 IP

6. Jacob deGrom – Two closers finished in front of deGrom (Hendriks and Hand). Yes, this year was screwy and stupid, but pitchers are always this random. It’s so freakin’ obvious. Look at their categories. ERA and Wins are out of their control almost completely. Their WHIP is only slightly in their control, and they don’t give saves at all. You’re drafting starters based on their ability to strikeout hitters. That’s it. Preseason Rank #2, 2020 Projections: 6-3/2.58/0.96/98 in 77 IP, Final Numbers: 4-2/2.38/0.96/104 in 68 IP

7. Dinelson Lamet – In my Dinelson Lamet sleeper post this past preseason (the 1st preseason, not the one that stretched five months into the season), I gushed like a Gusher for 600 words, then the first thing people say is, but he only has two pitches? Process is not always greater than or equal to results. Preseason Rank #27, 2020 Projections: 4-2/3.86/1.22/81 in 62 IP, Final Numbers: 3-1/2.09/0.86/93 in 69 IP

8. Clayton Kershaw – Nope, wasn’t in on Kershaw this past preseason, but, if I’m being honest and defending myself, if I knew all he had to throw was 60 IP, I would’ve been more willing to admit to the possibility of him throwing a top 10 SP season. Preseason Rank #21, 2020 Projections: 5-3/3.42/1.05/60 in 61 IP, Final Numbers: 6-2/2.16/0.84/62 in 58 1/3 IP

9. Marco Gonzales – To take this back to what I was saying in deGrom’s blurb, and point out how wrong I was on Gonzales, I didn’t come close to predicting the one thing I supposedly should be able to predict: his Ks. No way around it, this year was surprising for Marco. No increase in velocity and his pitch mix is pretty similar to his past years. His fastball was way more valuable, while being as bleh. Could it have been a sample size thing? That’s what she would say. I don’t know. Will need to dig in on him this offseason. There is hope though, because great command can lead to positive results. Preseason Rank #98, 2020 Projections: 3-4/4.11/1.28/47 in 61 IP, Final Numbers: 7-2/3.10/0.95/64 in 69 2/3 IP

10. Corbin Burnes – Was a bit surprised I didn’t rank him. I thought I had. I guess I was confusing my love for Adrian Houser for Burnes. What might’ve been the case is once it was announced Burnes was in the rotation, I agreed with people in the comments to pick him up. I had told you a Corbin would be a top ten starter. Only I said Patrick Corbin. Burnes is a guy I am scared about when you look at his innings year-over-year. How many can Burnes actually throw in 2021? Wait, this is about 2020. Right, but still, it’s a concern, and might be why he was so good this past year. It was essentially a great middle relief year, and didn’t really stretch his ability. If he were at 100+ IP, could he be firing beanies at 96 MPH? I don’t know. He did add a cutter, which was a very successful pitch for him. Gonna be one of many tough calls for next year. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 4-1/2.11/1.02/88 in 59 2/3 IP.

11. Lance Lynn – If it wasn’t for one awful start and his beard, he would’ve been a top five starter. Well, the beard didn’t affect him, but, well, it kinda affects all us having to look at it. He’s one guy I want the Yankees to trade for just because of his beard. Lop that puppy off! Preseason Rank #24, 2020 Projections: 6-2/3.58/1.20/88 in 76 IP, Final Numbers: 6-3/3.32/1.06/89 in 84 IP

12. Zach Davies – Okay, didn’t like Davies coming into this year, but (oh, hell yeah, there’s a but) A) You could’ve picked him up off waivers at any time early on. B) Whether I liked him or not proves my point that pitching is arbitrary, meaningless, cheap and eat Arby’s. C) There’s no C. Davies’ giant leap in Ks (5.8 to 8.2 K/9) is interesting, because he does have great command. He might’ve finally figured out to throw less of his junky-as-eff 88 MPH fastball, and focus more on the cutter and, like, 45 MPH change. Even though he throws like a 78-year-old, he is only 27, so I’m more than a little intrigued. Preseason Rank #115, 2020 Projections: 3-4/4.36/1.35/44 in 66 IP, Final Numbers: 7-4/2.73/1.07/63 in 69 1/3 IP

13. Kyle Hendricks – If I had to do a 60-game season again, and I hope I never do, I’d boost guys who strikeout fewer who are great at command and ratios. This is a huge difference than how I felt in July of this year. What I overlooked was pitchers with 7 K/9 don’t have as many IP in a 60-game season to fall behind others, i.e., a pitcher who strikes out 200 hitters, but has a 4.25 ERA *cough* Robbie Ray *cough* doesn’t have a chance to lap Hendricks in strikeouts by as much in only 60 to 80 IP. I.E. Part 2, Return of I.E.: Hendricks is good in a short period of time, but if you gave him a long period of time he’d eventually do a duet with Rob Thomas.  Preseason Rank #38, 2020 Projections: 5-4/3.41/1.12/57 in 68 IP, Final Numbers: 6-5/2.88/1.00/64 in 81 1/3 IP

14. Zach Plesac – He was one late-night, maskless pizza party with his high schools bros away from being a top seven starter. Whatever the Indians are feeding their starters — maize? — it’s working. The Indians are the new Cardinals circa Dave Duncan. I’m interested in all their pitchers, no matter what. Also, weird how they all have the same sexy formula of strikeouts without walks. Sign me up for that shizz. That’s Rad-K-e. Preseason Rank #75, 2020 Projections: 4-2/4.12/1.19/49 in 53 IP, Final Numbers: 4-2/2.28/0.80/57 in 55 1/3 IP

15. Aaron Nola – His Ks shot up (10.2 to 12.1 K/9), and I am curious if we’re going to look back on this year and find that pitchers, knowing they could go full tilt for two months, were all pitching above their ability for Ks. There has been some studies done that pitchers do better in September in normal seasons (and higher velocity), because they know a six-month layoff is right around the corner. For unstints, Nola threw his change a lot more in 2020. Maybe he did that because he knew there was no way hitters would get wise to it in only 12 starts vs. 32. Preseason Rank #17, 2020 Projections: 6-4/3.51/1.07/87 in 78 IP, Final Numbers: 5-5/3.28/1.08/96 in 71 1/3 IP

16. Max Fried – I liked Fried; he did well; he also was lucky to do well and he would’ve been a sell-high if the season lasted another four months. Dead giveaway is his 1.09 WHIP vs. his 2.25 ERA and under-9 K/9. It was also coupled with a 3.1 BB/9 and decrease in velocity and, well, there’s a lot to not like here, even if it did work out fine. Preseason Rank #35, 2020 Projections: 5-3/3.77/1.27/68 in 64 IP, Final Numbers: 7-0/2.25/1.09/50 in 56 IP

17. Dylan Bundy – Here’s a random either/or simply because they’re right next to each other, and it wouldn’t be the first time a Bundy was next to something Fried — RIP King Kong Bundy and his donuts — never the hoo:  Fried or Bundy in 2021? Thinking it’s pretty easily Bundy, even with Bundy’s decrease in velocity, which I can’t fully overlook. Preseason Rank #85, 2020 Projections: 3-3/4.34/1.36/67 in 66 IP, Final Numbers: 6-3/3.29/1.04/72 in 65 2/3 IP

18. Lucas Giolito – Hard for me not to see what I said in the Hendricks blurb being exactly what hurt Giolito. In 200 IP, Giolito would’ve easily passed some guys ahead of him here if he had time to lap them in Ks. Also, and this is way more anecdotal, but it doesn’t feel like people consider Giolito an ace, even after two seasons of essentially doing the same, ace-like stuff. Feels like I’ll be able to draft Giolito as my ace around 50th overall again, and gladly. Preseason Rank #8, 2020 Projections: 6-3/3.27/1.05/90 in 73 IP, Final Numbers: 4-3/3.48/1.04/97 in 72 1/3 IP

19. Brandon Woodruff – Between sleepers and just ranking Woodruff way above others, there was no reason why you didn’t own Woodruff this year, and if he had seven wins, like Fried, he would’ve had $8 more on his value, and would’ve been ranked up between Cole and deGrom. Seriously. Preseason Rank #26, 2020 Projections: 6-2/3.43/1.12/77 in 68 IP, Final Numbers: 3-5/3.05/0.99/91 in 73 2/3 IP

20. Dallas Keuchel – Surprised there weren’t more “lucky” pitchers in the top 20 in a 60-game season, but there wasn’t a ton. Keuchel was carrying all the luck for himself. He picked up the Luckwagon and dragged that shizz from the start to finish line. Preseason Rank #68, 2020 Projections: 4-2/3.86/1.32/53 in 68 IP, Final Numbers: 6-2/1.99/1.09/42 in 63 1/3 IP