I’m gonna turn the top 20 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball to 100, because I love you as much as someone who has never met someone else can love someone.  I did get mad when you did that thing that I don’t know about because I don’t know you.  It wasn’t cool.  But forgive and forget, as my Grandpa Joe says, even if he never forgave our neighbor for stealing his street cleaning parking spot twenty years ago, so there’s that.  Now, it’s only fair I turn the outfielders up to 100, since I’ve turned the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball to 31; the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball to 51; the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball to 41; the top 20 shortstops for 2015 fantasy baseball to 38 and the top 20 3rd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball to 41.  All the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings are there.  As always, my tiers and projections are included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball:

1. Mike Trout – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

2. Giancarlo Stanton – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

3. Andrew McCutchen – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

4. Adam Jones – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

5. Carlos Gomez – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

6. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

7. Bryce Harper – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

8. Justin Upton – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

9. Yasiel Puig – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.

10. Corey Dickerson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Young Rockie hitters are my BFFs.”  Dickerson hit 32 homers one year in the minors (yes, Single-A), but he also had 13 homers in Double-A in only 67 games, then 11 homers in a half a season in Triple-A.  That Single-A year was when he was 21 years old.  Last year, as a 25-year-old, he hit 24 homers in two-thirds of a season for the Rockies.  He can hit 30 homers in a season.  Sure, sure, Coors, I know.  But he hit 9 homers in away games.  His lefty/righty splits aren’t amazing (.253 with 3 HRs vs. lefties), but as he sees more of them, he can make more adjustments and be average vs. lefties.  As long as he keeps pounding righties, he’ll be fine.  Finally, in an interview with Walt Weiss, the Denver Post asked, “Heading in to 2015, is Corey Dickerson going to still be viewed as a platoon player & sit against more LHP?”  Weiss said, “We don’t view Corey Dickerson as a platoon player.”  Sure, Weiss is constantly showing you his molars because he talks out of both sides of his mouth, but overall for Dickerson’s line it could be better if he sits against a few tough lefties.  Dickerson is capable of 30+ HRs and 12+ steals.  Look around, read the room, there’s not a whole of that anymore.  Finally (have I said finally yet for this blurb?  I feel like it’s going on forever.), you should have safe hitters with your first two picks, why not take a chance on a player with a floor of 20/5/.280 player that has upside for more?  Rhetorical!  If you think because you’d rather have a safer player like Kemp, V-Mart or Cruz, you don’t have to look far back in their recent past to find years they disappointed too.  No one is completely safe.  Okay, I’m seriously done now.  (Fine!  One last thing!)  Yes, I want Arenado and Dickerson on every team.  2015 Projections:  82/26/84/.293/10

11. Carlos Gonzalez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Cespedes.  I call this tier, “This tier or that tier.”  That should lead you to say, “Which tier, Unkie Grey?”  Which would lead me to say, “This tier, Nephew.”  Which would lead you to say, “Can I borrow your car?”  Which would lead me to say, “Got a hot date?”  Which would lead you to say, “I’m only twelve.”  Which would lead me to say, “Then you can’t drive my car.”  Which would lead you to say, “Too late.  I’m in Commerce heading to the casino with a fake ID.”  Which would lead me to say, “Hello, I’d like to report a stolen car.”  Then when you’re forty, you’d laugh and urinate on my grave, which is in your bathroom because by the time 12-year-olds are 40 there won’t be anymore room for cemeteries.  Good times!  What I mean by the tier name is I struggled with how much I wanted all of the guys in this tier and I nearly dropped all of them into the next tier of guys I definitely do not want.  Everyone in this tier (and the Hamilton tier) feels like they’re headed for different levels of disappointment, but I was able to convince myself I’d either not draft them or I’d only draft them at a discount.  As for CarGo, I might just take a corner man when he’s being drafted.  I love him if he’s healthy, but Hayzeus Cristo is he ever healthy?  Not to answer, but to ponder like a meditating Tina Turner at a mindfulness seminar.  2015 Projections:  77/22/81/.274/16

12. Michael Brantley – He is routinely going higher than this in drafts.  That’s okay.  I’ll let him go if the price is too steep.  Last year, I loved Brantley.  Told everyone to draft him.  This year, everyone’s paying for his career year.  This is normal protocol in fantasy baseball.  Everyone’s always wondering how I know the guys that are overrated every year.  It’s obvious.  Take, for instance, one guy who doubled his career high in homers, stole six more bases than his career year and beat his next year’s highest batting average by forty-three points.  Then look at that player’s name.  In this case, it’s Brantley.  I did one mock where Brantley went in the top 12.  If that continues, he’ll get an overrated post.  2015 Projections:  87/17/92/.301/19

13. Jacoby Ellsbury – There was a post at FanGraphs, “Comparing Jacoby Ellsbury With Chase Headley,” and I swear to you, I spit out my coffee.  You owe me a new monitor, FanGraphs!  I wonder if the article, “Comparing Billy Hamilton With Joey Votto,” got shot down?  How about, “Comparing Apples With Smurfs?”  I wrote an overrated post on Ellsbury last year because people saw the move to New York meaning he was going to hit 25 homers and have a gazillion counting stats.  I called for 13 homers last year and solid counting stats.  He ended up with 16 homers and mediocre counting stats because the Yanks offense was putrid.  So, he’ll have 15-ish homers and good steals with the counting stats still up in the air for 2015.  Leaving us with the question, did the Yankees get that much better this offseason?  They added Didi and A-Rod (Headley was there in the 2nd half when they still weren’t very good).  The average age for their team is like 35 years old at a time when people are starting to think peak baseball years are between 25 and 26.  Um, yeah, the Yanks are a mess once again.  2015 Projections:  86/15/79/.278/30

14. Yoenis Cespedes – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Yoenis is going to love Detroit.  It’s the last city on earth that loves 1950’s American-made automobiles as much as Havana, Cuba.  Last year, he hit 22 homers, which sounds about right.  Crazily, his HR/FB% was only 9.6%.  If you know the tiniest bit about batted ball profiles, you know that means he hit a crapton of fly balls.  You’d be right.  He hit everything in the air.  No wonder he hit .249 in Oakland in 189 ABs last year.  That park is a rectangle that is 500 feet to center and five hundred feet behind first and third base.  The Tigers led the AL in Home BABIP, and had a virtually neutral for HR/FB%.  What does all this mean?  Yoenis was behind the eight ball in Oakland, better in Fenway and just fine in Detroit.  Due to his growing propensity for fly balls, he could hit 20 homers or 35 homers next year.  Fo’really.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2015 Projections:  73/26/87/.254/7

15. Billy Hamilton – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Cruz.  I call this tier, “Too rich for my blood, iron the numbers.” Unlike the CarGonzalez-led tier, I’m not even willing to take a chance on drafting these guys.  Yeah, Billy Hamilton is fast.  He just ran into your room, mussed your hair and ran out without you knowing.  Look in the mirror, see?!  I don’t care.  You’re still adorable for a prematurely balding man.  Last year on our Player Rater, Hamilton returned the 26th best outfielder season.  Right above him, Melky and right below him Marlon Byrd.  In other words, Hamilton is valuable, but not as valuable for as high as I see him being drafted.  He’d need 70 steals and a .270 average for that.  Doode never walks and strikes out a decent amount; he’s not hitting .270 without an insane BABIP.  To play devil’s advocate — Hooha!  Whoa… — if Hamilton gets 100 steals and is a top ten hitter overall in 2015, it’s going to be so exciting.  Seriously, it would be fun to see that.  But for fantasy, here’s how your league will shake out:  you will have a 12 out of 12 in steals, winning the category by a plus-50 steals, except you will have a six in RBIs, HRs, average and finish in fourth place.  2015 Projections:  80/7/45/.257/65

16. Ryan Braun – Don’t see how I draft Braun again in his career unless he slips to around 120 next year and I take a gamble.  Seriously, he looks like toast.  And if he’s not toast, and bounces back this year, I won’t trust him next year either.  Too many weird hand ailments (I don’t care that he says he feels healthy; players always say that shizz), too many hard to quantify issues from PEDs, too old.   It hurts me as much as you because I’m half-Jewish and am from Jersey, so you know I love to hit the tanning salon and Brauns.  2015 Projections:  77/22/85/.261/13

17. Matt Kemp – Here’s what I said this offseason, “In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp played for one of the most popular sports franchises in the world in the 2nd largest city in the country.  In San Diego, the Padre fans pride themselves not on wins and losses, but how well the Chablis goes with the brie while they watch the game from the picnic area.  In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp went to all the hottest nightclubs.  In San Diego, he’ll be frequenting places that look like the bar where Jodie Foster was in The Accused.  In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp hung out with the hottest celebrities.  In San Diego, “Hey, is that Natalie from The Facts of Life?”  In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp dated Rihanna.  In San Diego, Kemp’s dating Natalie.  It’s only a mere two and half hour drive, but the culture shock is going to hit Kemp as soon as he arrives because he’s going to have to surrender his Lamborghini, there’s a town ordinance that everyone must drive a Jeep with no doors that they put plastic bags over when it rains once a year.  On the backside of the site, I’m currently churning through rankings that will be coming in January.  I nearly ranked Kemp higher than I want to admit to now.  I was believing the 150 games played, 25 HR, 8 SB, .287 season he had last year.  Whether I believe it or not, going to San Diego is going to hurt his value.  From hitting in the middle of an All-Star lineup to hitting in the middle of Yellowstone.  Kemp said on his first day in Petco, “It took some time to get my bearings.  In other parks, you can set yourself in the batter’s box by using the outfield fences as a guide.  Here, you have to assume the outfield fences are out there somewhere.”  Kemp has money coming to him either way, so if he became a 20 HR, 5 SB, .270 guy for a few years, it wouldn’t surprise me.”  And that’s me quoting me!   That was written prior to the announcement of the arthritic hip, but that’s more of a real world issue further down the line of his contract.  I’m not that concerned for 2015 that him and Larry King share similar bone density.  2015 Projections:  72/22/81/.276/8

18. Nelson Cruz – Quite the offseason for overrated guys.  Here’s what I said on Cruz this past December, “You know the guy that was going to draft Nelson Cruz in your league because he just had a career year? The guy that drafted Chris Davis last year, Buster Posey the year before and Mitzi Gaynor in his 50’s pinup league back in 1953? That guy is the Mariners. (In fairness to that doode, Mitzi had a hell of a follow-up in ’54. Va Va Va Va Va Va — How many Va’s is that — Voom!) Nelson Cruz stayed healthy one other year, besides last year. He hit the most home runs of his career last year. He had the most RBIs, runs, strikeouts and will be 35 years old in 2015. So, of course, the Mariners give him a huge deal. Baseball team management is a peculiar thing. (By the by, I can’t say the word ‘peculiar.’ It sounds like I’m trying to pronounce the word for film in Spanish.) What seems obvious to the everyday person must not be obvious to baseball management. It would be fun to test this out in other areas of life. “Okay, baseball management, I’m going to bring you to the corner of the street. When the light turns green, cross the street.” Insert Batman-style sound effect. Only they’re doing it with nearly $60 million dollars. Well, ours isn’t to wonder why, ours is to figure out the fantasy value when a player changes environs. (Environs? Coolest word to write. Least cool word to say aloud.) Up until Cruz actually passed 27 homers last year, I had him pegged for 27 homers, because, well, that’s how many home runs he always hits, give or take a handful. Last year, he had big hands — that’s what she said! Huh? — but that was contingent on one big number that he had never reached before: 678. As in how many ABs he had last year. If a player has a pattern of getting injured and has a healthy year at 34 years old, I don’t buy that his health concerns are a thing of history. Call me a fool! (Not to my face.) In the past two years, his steals have dropped to the five-steal range, so he is essentially power. He has hideous numbers in Safeco for his career, but I don’t buy into that mattering because when he was in Safeco prior he was facing Mariners pitching and he was playing in an away game (sleeping in a hotel, chasing tail amongst visitor hoochie, etc.). Safeco isn’t going to do him any favors, but he can homer anywhere if healthy. That’s the stick in my craw.”  And that’s me–Well, you know.  2015 Projections:  71/26/85/.262/5

19. Starling Marte – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Give me some lovin’!”  This is the year to draft Marte.  He’s 26 years old and coming off a season of 13 homers and 30 steals.  Want a guy that is going to be overrated next year?  Next stop, Wonderland!  17 homers and 30 steals is doable.  20 homers and 35 steals is doable.  25 homers– Okay, I won’t go that far.  His home run distance last year?  He averaged 402 feet.  He wasn’t hitting wall-scrapers.  His splits?  He hit .288 vs. righties with 12 of 13 homers and .303 vs. lefties.  Oh, and he’s a righty so no problem there.  Caught stealing percentage?  He stole 30 bags in 41 tries.  That’s 73%.  Billy Hamilton was only 71%.  Strikeouts and ability to walk?  Um, yeah, these aren’t terrific.  He chased more pitches outside the strike zone last year and his swinging strike percentage went up a tad.  Last year, he hit .291 with a .373 BABIP.  Those are high.  He’s more of a .265 hitter.  He won’t kill you, but he’s not a .290 hitter.  Finally, is he a 20-steal guy pretending to be a 30-steal guy or a 40-steal guy pretending to be a 30-steal guy?  I’d side more with the latter (you know who doesn’t need a ladder?  Gangly Manbird!).  I don’t want to project 40 steals, but in 2013 he stole 41 bases and I could see him pushing 35 easily.  So, homers are legit in the 15-homer range?  Check!  Steals legit in 30-steal range?  Check!  Won’t kill you in average?  Check!  Young enough there’s some upside?  Checkmate, snitches!  2015 Projections:  79/16/70/.265/33

20. George Springer – This tier is filled with guys with high ceilings and low floors.  Looking for the highest ceiling and lowest floor in this tier?  Look no further.  Springer’s either going to be Sharon Stone illegally smoking in a police interrogation room or Sharon Stone ice picking your heart out.  Likely, he’ll be both within the span of two weeks.  Think one week where he hits five homers, followed by a week where he goes 0-for-28 with 27 Ks.  Last year he had a 33% strikeout rate.  There’s been six seasons with that bad of a strikeout rate since 2000.  Out of those, only Mark Reynolds hit above .240 in 2009 (.260) and he did it with a .338 BABIP (lucky).  To put that in hip hop terms, in the Nas documentary on Showtime about Illmatic, there’s a high school picture of Nas and his buddies.  Nas is the only one that’s not in jail or dead.  Replace jail and dead with hitting above .240 and replace Nas with Mark Reynolds.  Now, Springer needs to drop Illmatic and lower his strikeouts.  2015 Projections:  83/27/87/.238/16

 
  1. Gareth says:
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    Finally, some good players! Catcher, shortstop and second base were pretty fugly.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Gareth: it’s a sliding scale. You have to play the game as it evolves.

  2. Chonso says:
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    Great stuff as always, Grey

    10 team H2H dynasty. Keep 3:

    AJones, Puig, Cargo, Rizzo, Kluber

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chonso: Thanks! Not CarGo, Kluber, if Gonzalez

  3. J-FOH says:
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    you have a real fetish for natalie from the facts of life

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @J-FOH: I love her

      • mindicohn says:
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        @Grey: did someone say Natalie?
        Keep 7 12 tm 5×5
        Freeman $22
        Jupton $26
        The Klube $13
        A.Jones $13
        Rendon $8
        Machado $7
        D.price $24
        Arrieta $7
        G.COLE $10
        Rendon Jones and the Klube seem like no Brainerd.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha! Not Cole, Price

  4. Toe Knee Arm Ass says:
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    Hi Grey I haven’t been much on the comments side but have been keeping up. Lots of quality baseball stuff as usual. happy my Patriots are in the super bowl, I have to hear about deflate gate. While going through the articles I ran into a story about another set of deflated balls. As Jim Shea of the SF Chronicle reports That Arod is working out this off season with Barry Bonds. After all the bs of last season is this really the guy you want to hangout with. I was thinking what an arrogant mofo then I realized Alex is way to effin stupid to even spell arrogant. Keep up the great work

    • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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      @Toe Knee Arm Ass: it makes perfect sense that those two would be friends though, it’s like two Bond villans or X-Men villans teaming up.

      • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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        @A Wesley Snipes Life: yep, there’s an extra “i” in there. beating the trolls to the bridge, might even finish the 40 before they get there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Toe Knee Arm Ass: Thanks! Wow, hadn’t heard that… It’s like Pete Rose hanging out in Vegas, which is where I saw him this past weekend while I was betting on the Pats, and they won me money!

  5. jay says:
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    In a keeper league Upton or puig?

    Also if I’m able to get Rizzo or rendon for either OFer, should it make difference which one I move?

    • Orval Overall says:
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      @jay: I keep Puig and trade Upton for Rizzo…

    • Hawk says:
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      @jay:

      In order, I’d want:

      Rendon
      Rizzo
      Puig
      Upton

      Trade accordingly :)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @jay: Puig… Get Rizzo or Rendon, in that order

  6. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Gr8 work, man.

    What do you make of the news that…

    an ahlete received a life-time ban for his second conviction for the use of performance-enhancing drugs.

    The sport…..

    A. Archery;
    B. Fencing;
    C. Equestrian;
    D. Long-distance walking.

    The answer….D.

    So to recap, someone used PEDs to be a fast long-distance walker but not too fast lest he be DQ’d for going too fast.

    With the OF started am getting more and more the idea that pitching can wait to around rounds 6 to 10, though some of the SP/RP Rudy alluded to yesterday could be drafted higher.

    Is that about right?

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Orval Overall says:
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      @Ante GALIC:
      Two things come to mind:

      Jim Rome – “if you ain’t cheatin, you ain’t tryin”
      REM – Everybody hurts, sometimes..

      • Orval Overall says:
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        @Orval Overall: should be everybody cheats, sometimes

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Orval Overall: mark grace said that years ago on the Rome show and Rome uses it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Wow, how about all of those old people that stroll around the mall on Viagra? I’ll go over pitching in a few days

    • james says:
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      @Ante GALIC:

      In a dynasty league (new league) pitchers really fell, guys like Paxton, Homer Baily, Liriano, Moore, and a few other very nice arms went in the 19th-21st rounds. Pitching is super deep these days, and if you have a smaller player pool (this is a 12 team 25 man roster league) that has plenty of other decent arms in the FA pool, then it is a reasonable strategy to punt SP until rounds 18 on and still have a rotation that would not make you crry.

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @james: ty, brother.

  7. Tigres says:
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    Thanks, Grey. I think OFs 21-40 are going to make us smile… but I’ll have to wait one more day to be sure, my time machine is in the shop. Given the state of infielders, seems like getting a couple guys from top 20 OF and a couple more from top 40 is gonna be key.

    • james says:
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      @Tigres:

      Considering guys like Heyward did not crack the top 20, I am thinking about punting OF and SP this year and draft my whole infeild in the first 4 rounds and then go hard on OF for a rew rounds, and deal with pitching really late.

      • jal179 says:
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        @james:

        Sounds very tempting.

        Elite 1B in rd 1, Rendon or Desmond rd 2, hope for Donaldson in 3 if he’s there or snag a Dickerson or Upton type in 3 then Arenado in 4 or 5( depending on league size or # of Grey disciple league members) then Santana in 6 (Grey hates this idead of mine lol) THEN consider a Teheran type as your ace. HMMMMM

  8. Buge Hoobs says:
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    Sorry Unkie G, but I leave today’s post feeling utterly disappointed.

    In your opening, you tease us by pointing out that of your top 20 lists so far have gone MUCH deeper. You say that you’re going to turn your top 20 OF into 100! Instead of the usual chunks of 20 OF’s at a time, I actually thought that we were going to get a longer list than 20 to open the position this morning (Boo-yah, this I going to be a great crap!!). You even hit us early with this year’s young BFF (Kids, better use the downstair bathroom, this is gonna be a while)

    But, like Charlie Brown on Halloween, “I got a rock”. I got 9 guys that you already told us your thoughts about in the overall posts and 9 guys that are bound to underperform or that we shouldn’t want. Then you go and leave us with the first player in your “give me some lovin’ ” tier? Today I ONLY get to read about TWO players that I should look forward to drafting? The ultimate cliffhanger let-down. Like years past, I DO have to wait! (Waaaaa!)

    I thought you were the cool Uncle.

    Keep up the great work, blah, blah, blah, yadda x 3!

    (FYI –the Ryan Braun name link brought me to a RP)

    • The JoGarza says:
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      @Buge Hoobs: yeah, Grey breaks it down in tiers. Makes it more palatable. SP is the same deal, FYI.

      I think it’s better this way. If it were 100 players long off the bat, I’d just end up skimming after about 40 or so.

      • Buge Hoobs says:
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        @The JoGarza: Yeah, I know the format. Been a long time fan. He just teased my need. As soon as fake fottball is over, I can’t wait for January Gray wake from his hibernation. The first week he gave more wonderful insight than expected. , I’m jonesin’ for more and only got two people to add to my OF wish list. I didn’t apprieciate the C%$K tease, and I CAN’T wait until tomorrow!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Buge Hoobs: Oops on Braun, that’s weird… Sorry, C. Brown…

  9. Orval Overall says:
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    Morning Grey,

    You seem high on Starling Marte..
    I agree and I think when all is said and done he could be a top 10 OF this year..

  10. Orval Overall says:
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    Just a lil insight on deflate gate in New England:

    I went out to my car this morning, after a cold night, and my tires were deflated by 2 pounds, but only 3 of the 4 tires!

  11. A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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    while nobody in their right minds think braun’s power’s coming all the way back, your projected average feels quite low. dude’s contact rate is about the same, line drive rate too (it was actually best last year since 2011 year). Speed indicators are fine too, and he had his lowest BABIP in all 2010 and after years, so that could go back over .310ish too (his lowest, last year rate), all this to say, somewhere .280’s sounds much more likely.

  12. Bo Tanning says:
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    I know you guys dig upside. How come you don’t see G. Springer out-ranking one of those last 3 guys on your list?

  13. Keith says:
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    No Springer? And Braun is going way too high!

  14. Goldirocks says:
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    Hi Grey;

    I Love reading your daily posts!
    I have a 3 part question for you as follows :(please forgive the long question)

    1/. I’d like your opinion on whether you think Puig can and/or should achieve the upside of a player like McCutcheon in the next few years?

    Puig is younger, but seems a bit flakey… In a 12 team keep forever 5×5 Roto keeper league (keep 15 players); would it be short-sighted of me to trade away my Puig and Latos and maybe another borderline upside keeper (like Duda? – I already have goldy and freeman at 1st) that I cannot keep – in return for Cutch?
    The other guy’s team is weak and only has maybe 8 legit keepers… I have more than 15 possible keepers; so it could help both? I would normally keep Latos, but I have Homer Bailey or Fister as a 3rd SP to possibly keep along with Greinke and Carrasco.

    2/ Is there any discernible difference between Latos, Fister, and Bailey for keeper purposes?

    Im concerned with Latos’ loss of velocity on his fast ball and fangraphs recent write-ups on him. Bailey does not inspire much more confidence after his last season….and Fister has low K’s/good ratios – but maybe due a decline there a tad?…. Latos is obviously younger and hopefully healthier than last year, and in a better park…

    3/ Regardless whether or not I trade Latos; should I even bother to keep a third SP (bailey /Fister are my best third options)?

    I was considering an article written last year by Rudy; basically saying one can use good RP’s to help an average SP staff look better by making P ratios categories look better across the board. By that theory, maybe Im better off letting all 3 of Latos, bailey, and Fister go in deals or otherwise, and instead keep two of my 3 RP’s Greg Holland and Melancon or Cischek to not only dominate Saves – but also to assist a likely average overall pitching staff with K’s, and other ratios, like whip and era?
    I feel more confident in my RPs to produce their projected stats than my SPs. Or is that also short sighted?
    (We can only start 3 RP’s; opposed to 6 SP’s, so I will be scrambling for decent SP’s at our draft after keeping 11 bats, as opposed to 4 arms as part of my 15 keepers.).
    I expect Latos, Holland and Melancon to be taken by the time I pick late in the 1st round at our draft if I don’t keep them. Id prolly have a shot at Cischek, and maybe Bailey or Fister again though?

    Advice? General thoughts on pitching theory and/or Latos in particular?

    Thanks for your and anyone else’s opinions on these matters…. !

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Goldirocks: Thanks! 1. Hold 2. Latos is much better 3. No RPs are more flaky than SPs

      • goldirocks says:
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        @Grey:
        Thanks for the reassurance on Latos! :)
        Alot of doom and gloom out there on him, like he forgot how to pitch and was not injured last year…not to mention the better ball park now and improved Marlins team…
        (You really do seem to hate/distrust closers BTW!?)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          SAGNOF

  15. Fastpitch says:
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    Grey, sort of a strategy question. Last year over 400 players hit the disgraceful list. In the past 10 years less than 50% of the projected 1st round players returned that value. I realize it’s hindsight after the season. My question is why doesn’t a guy or the 4 women take the players they want within reason?

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Fastpitch: Huh?

      • Fastpitch says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: Say you want Marte or Desmond but because of there ADP you won’t get them on your next turn in a snake draft because the ADP says to take Kemp,Braun Cargo type players. With the risk of the DL for all players and the history of 1st round ADP returns why worry about the ADp’s and just get your guys within reason. Hope that helps. Just trying to think out of the box some.

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Fastpitch: If you’re drafting by-the-book ADP, you might as well put it on autodraft. I think 100% of experienced managers use ADP as a guideline.

          • Bterry says:
            (link)

            @Cram It: i use adp to project what the shitty drafters in my league will do. There are at least 3 guys un our longterm keeper that follow espn adp to a t. Makes doing what he is talking about in the comment easy and much less risky if you have players that follow adp in drafts.

            • Cram It says:
              (link)

              @Bterry: Drafting guys outside of a strict ADP is not a novel concept. Using common sense is not outside of the box. You’re playing with people who are unable to adapt and therefore probably never win. Drafting “your” guys; guys you want, guys you like, that’s half the fun of a draft. Drafting by ADP only is insane to me.

              • james says:
                (link)

                @Cram It:

                ADP is a good indication on the point you have to act on a guy in order to get him, not much else. Take the guy you want within a reasonable level of that, beyond that do what you want, it is your team.

                With that said, It is fine to reach for Braun in the 4th since you like him to rebound, but no one else will act on him before then, so why use a higher pick when no one else is looking there. (easier to see later in the draft, why take Duda before the 10th when no one will look at him for another 3 rounds)

              • Fastpitch says:
                (link)

                @Cram It: That’s what I said.

    • The Harrow says:
      (link)

      @Fastpitch: are you saying since there’s inherent risk with all players, even high ones, why do any rankings at all?

      • Fastpitch says:
        (link)

        @The Harrow: Yes sort of. You need a base line to see where guys are going but a manager doesn’t have to draft like he’s on auto pick.

    • Blue says:
      (link)

      @Fastpitch: Opportunity cost.

      • Fastpitch says:
        (link)

        @Blue: Right. I’m in a 2 position, 5 outfielder, 10 pitcher league. Sometimes if you don’t draft right you could get stuck with the #14 and 27th best players at a position. Hard to recover even if you ace another position. So, you may not be able to stay with the ADP rankings overall.

  16. claw dog says:
    (link)

    hey grey, love the rankings so far. The ballsy picks are what really separates you from everyone else’s rankings and they’ve been so helpful the past few years.

    I have an unrelated trade question for you. I’m in a 12 team 5×5 H2H 8 keeper league. I have E5, Donaldson, Cargonzalez, machado, soler alex, gordon, hosmer, and scherzer. The trade would be my machado and hosmer for his arenado and grenkie. I’m the one who initiated trade taks cuz I want arenado on both of my teams(already have him on my other team) and I know how high you are on arenado. Thoughts?

    Thanks again for the great rankings! best time of the offseason by far

    • Orval Overall says:
      (link)

      @claw dog:
      I would take Nolan and Zack all day long for Hoss and Manny…

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @claw dog: Arenado

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @claw dog: Thanks! What Cram said

      • claw dog says:
        (link)

        @Grey: alright thanks. I was leaning towards accepting it. I was just concerned that machado is going to explode this year and hosmer will suddenly live up to expectations. Gonna pull the trigger though

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  17. The Tone Ranger says:
    (link)

    hey grey, i feel you. i dont want brantley if the price is too high, but ill gladly take him if hes not in the top 30ish. Where would you start looking for him? like 4th round? or is that still too high of a price for him in your opinion

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @The Tone Ranger: He’s going in the 2nd round, he’s not being drafted in the 4th, but I would take him there

      • The Tone Ranger says:
        (link)

        @Grey: damn that nuts in the 2nd. haha. ok thanks you for the reply good sir!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  18. Clint says:
    (link)

    Nice to see you like Marte. I had a feeling he’d be a buy low this year considering how much people were almost trying to shove him to waivers for the Pirates when Polanco came up and he was struggling, before the former’s downslide began as Marte rose in the 2nd half of 2014.

  19. The JoGarza says:
    (link)

    One of the greatest joy for Razzball readers is when a keeper turns up so highly ranked.

    I have Dickerson in the 23rd round and I’m giddy that I may have found the next incarnation of CarGo (whom I also kept in his glory days!)

    With Au Shizz and Arenado also as keepers, might as well name my team Grey’s Lovers!

  20. papapsmurf says:
    (link)

    Hopefully when C Dick is done pounding the righties he can drill some lefties too.

    Last year his splits became more pronounced as the year wore on. Hope that’s not a sign of things to come… Really interesting to see what he can do in a full year. If he gets off to a bad start, it’s not hard to see Weiss platooning him.

    • Shoe Gum Reynolds says:
      (link)

      @papapsmurf: Here’s CDicks impressive career minor league slash .310/.359 /.606. Oh wait…that’s just against LHP. It gets even better against RHP. Platoonie spitoonie.

  21. TobiasFunkeAnalRapist says:
    (link)

    Nice read Grey, a bit concerned about some advice you gave me before though. It was concerning keepers, you told me to keep Brantley over Dickerson, they would both be like 11 and 12th rounders respectively. Now you rank Dickerson over Brantley? What gives man? I’m already keeper Trout and Cutch so either of these guys are great 3 OF options, thanks.

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @TobiasFunkeAnalRapist: I’m a bit concerned that you can’t make this decision yourself. And his projected stats for Brantley seem to be more productive than Dickie’s, yet he’s ranked higher than Brantley? What the?! Crazy. Just incomprehensible.

      • TobiasFunkeAnalRapist says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: haha touche.

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @TobiasFunkeAnalRapist: It’s close to splitting hairs. You should be happy with either one! Personally I’d go Dickerson for the upside potential since you have Trout and Cutch already.

  22. FBV says:
    (link)

    21. Jorge Soler

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @FBV: Word

  23. David says:
    (link)

    My keeper league also counts XBH, BB and OBP would you change Dickerson or Brantleys rankings based on that? Or would you maybe feel better about Brantleys price? Brantley had 67 XBH last year… Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @David: I’d go with how I have them

  24. bossmanjunior333 says:
    (link)

    Surprised Springer didn’t make it in but I have a sneaky feeling he is probably in Marte’s tier

  25. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    I guess now that I didn’t win any football leagues, it’s time to get back into baseball. Just a preliminary question as to keepers. I’m sure I’ll hit you up multiple times over the next two months. Anyway, in an 8 Team H2H league, we can keep 5, who are they:

    A.Jones*
    Longoria**
    Machado
    Bogaerts
    Brantley
    Springer
    Hanley**
    Scherzer
    Rizzo
    Carrasco
    Adderall Davis**

    *Franchise guy, so he’s locked in.
    **Already kept for one season, so they only have one left until they get tossed back into the draft pool

    H, R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBPS, W, QS, SV, Ks, Ks/9, ERA, WHIP

    • Wilsonian says:
      (link)

      @Wilsonian: I may also have Arenado, I have to go back and check my lineup.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Wilsonian: Jones, Hanley, Brantley, Rizzo, Arenado

      • Wilsonian says:
        (link)

        @Grey: if I didn’t have Arenado, who are you keeping?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Prolly Scherzer

  26. BraevArnie says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    thanks for the great stuff, I love the marte comment there!
    16 team ops keeper league, 6 keepers, whod do I keep?

    Ramos 3$, Walker 3$, Moustakas 1$, Rizzo 13$, Alcantara 3$, Harper 29$, Marte 13$, Goldschmidt 23$, R Zimmerman 6$, Cashner 13$, F Liriano 2$, Stroman 3$, Tanaka 18$.

    Didn’t like the fowler trade v much…

    Thanks a lot!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @BraevArnie: No problem… Rizzo, Harper, Marte, Goldy, Tanaka, Stroman

      • BraevArnie says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        pfff, you believe in this “let’s rehab out of TJ thing”?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Tijuana?

          • BraevArnie says:
            (link)

            @Grey:
            hehe..
            seriously you think tanaka could be fine and is worth 18$?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              It’s decent enough for him…

  27. Jon says:
    (link)

    Would you deal Frazier for Dozier or Wong?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jon: Nah

  28. shibboleth says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, thanks as always! 1-year keeper question. Pick 5. 5×5 OPS/QS league.

    FA1 slots into round 20, FA 2 slots into round 15.

    FA – Dickerson
    FA – Ozuna
    FA – Arcia
    21- Todd Frazier
    24- Morneau
    27 – Wong
    28 – Kazmir

    Dickerson, Frazier and Wong are no brainers. I’m leaning toward Morneau, Arcia and Kazmir, because Kaz’s round can’t hurt me regardless of production, and Arcia looks to have more power than OZUNA. Whatcha think?

  29. Wilson says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey, you said you want Arenado in every team.

    If you can draft Donaldson or Arenado, who do you want to draft? ( the answer should be Donaldson based on ranking, but you want Arenado in every team…)

    Thoughts appreciated.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Wilson: Donaldson… You can take Arenado a few rounds later as a CI, hopefully

  30. RS says:
    (link)

    If Billy Hamilton hits those stats, he’s a top-10 hitter overall. I get that you may not want to rank him anywhere near there but there’s a massive disconnect there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Cool

    • Bterry says:
      (link)

      @RS: in espn maybe. But only because their player rater inflates sb and he will steal 15 more than the next guy at that number. His point stands up pretty strong about roto league value. H2h he can be worth more if paired up with enough power hitters and you are willing to sit him when you are up by 5 steals on friday for a kris davis type.

    • Carnac says:
      (link)

      Hamilton’s projections are very, very close to what he did in 2014 – and he was the #57 hitter on the Razzball Player Rater, #24 hitter on ESPN.

  31. Jay says:
    (link)

    Auction leaguers – in regards to keepers what is the best way to assign keeper costs to an undrafted FA? Also what do you use for inflation year-to-year?

    thanks-

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Costs are what is paid at an auction, inflation is $5 per year

      • Jay says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thanks, wasn’t sure if it were better to allow them to be kept for just inflation or to set a base price for them and then inflation.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  32. Bterry says:
    (link)

    Strategy question: I am keeping:
    Rizzo Cutch
    Miggy Giancarlo
    Tulo. Harper
    Hanram. Dickerson
    In a 12 team, keep 8 forwever with no penalty league that has expamded benches to 7. Normal 5×5 head to head scoring.

    With these keepers would you go high upside and low floor players such as baez and bryant with my top picks (rnd 9 & 10) or should i go with safe low cieling guys like pedroia and arimas ramirez types? I am leaning going for the high ceiling low floor guys because my keepers are pretty loaded. I have also considered pitching with rnd 9 & 10 but pitching always falls in this league and people scoop prospects 100spots above their adp’s because it is a longterm keep forever. What is everyone’s thoughts on drafting strategy when you feel you have a large group of “safe” keepers? Draft risky or draft safe?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Case by case basis… I’d want Pedroia over Baez on your team and Bryant over Aramis

      • Bterry says:
        (link)

        @Grey: ok One step further. Will you place these guys in order that you would draft them with those keepers
        C davis, bryant, frazier, wong, arenado, pedroia, kipnis, baez,

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Wong, Kipnis

          • Bterry says:
            (link)

            @Grey: so go all speed in draft pretty much. I need to fill c, 2b, 3b , of, util positions. I just knew you were gonna say arenado too. Always surprise me mr grey. Keep me on my toes.

  33. JB says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Deep 14 team 9×9 league where we start two 1B and two 3B – can keep 2. I’m definitely keeping Goldy, and I’ve ridden Swigs to the league championship in 3 of the past 4 years. Assuming he has 3B eligibility in Yahoo this year, do I ride him again, or pass the torch to either Rizzo or Arenado? I think I know your answer but like to be reassured.

    Thanks – and happy belated b-day!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Go Miggy… Thanks!

  34. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Billy Hamilton is a classic study in risk analysis. You draft Hamilton, you afford yourself the ability to draft the power-only dimensional players that get discounted below the 5 tool guys and find the right blend. From a roster construction standpoint it’s sound and this kind of thing can be a way to over-perform because you’re exploiting a market niche. The trade off is that you’re relying on a single guy to provide perhaps half your steals or more. He doesn’t perform and you’ve basically punted. The thing NOT to do with Hamilton is buy any steals insurance with other guys. With this strategy, you’re in for a penny you’re in for a pound or it won’t hang together. I wanted no piece of Hamilton last year. I’m very interested this year. I think 75 steals as a middle projection with upside. He’s going to improve his % I think so even with no other offensive improvements, the number goes up from last year. He’s going behind Dee Gordon in current ADP.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It’s one way to go, but risky as you mentioned… If Hamilton gets hurt in May, you’re in for a scramble in deep leagues

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I think there are two ways to manage risk in FBB. One is to distribute risk inside of each specific team by avoiding strategies like the one we’re talking about. The other is to try different extreme strategies like this one or more extremely punting categories or taking all upside players but playing in many leagues and varying the styles across leagues. I don’t think you can really avoid risk by taking “safe” players, as we mentioned yesterday

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Don’t think this is a ‘safe’ player situation as much as a SAGNOF situation… Hamilton is all your eggs, Rajai and balance is the same diff and Rajai is being drafted what? 250 spots later?

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Partially agree. I think Hamilton at his likely draft slot starts to make sense at around 80 steals. I’m thinking he can get them but not sure if I’m ready to bet on it yet.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I forget exactly, but Rudy figured out last year that Hamilton needs to hit something like .275 with 75+ steals and 90+ runs to make the case for a top 50 pick….

              • GhostTownSteve says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Knowing Rudy that’s going to be strictly from $ value calculation and wouldn’t factor in the arbitrage drafting edge you’re trying to exploit with the pick. I’d agree with the steals but don’t think the other numbers need be that high.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Yeah, it was… Something like only three outfielders hit under ten HRs and stole more than 60 bases and placed in the top 50 overall at the end of the year

                  • GhostTownSteve says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey:

                    The problem with Rudyesque rankings is they lack the context. I know I’m preaching to a convert in telling you this, but if you have Dee Gordon, Rajai Davis and Billy Hamilton on your team, their rankings in the general player population are meaningless, because they’re useless to your team in a now trade league.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yup, agreed

                    • clearly the $ figures are meant to show a player’s average value – but so is grey’s + everyone else’s. you could use the category $ to determine the value for a specific team which should show that a power rich, SB light team would really value Hamilton while he’d be negative value for the inverse team.

                      the ‘dream’ with a billy hamilton is that you could guarantee yourself respectability in SB and then take SB out of the equation for the rest of your drafting. that’s my dream at least as nothing is worse than spending a bit more on a guy with 15-30 SB potential and they shit the bed completely (see Will Venable and Brad Miller last year). that makes sense to me in deeper draft formats – particularly 15-team/nfbc…except for the fact that I have no faith that a guy can steal 75 unless he’s done in already at a high success rate. who was the last who was even close – reyes? add to it that hamilton is an OF who is KILLING you in ‘opportunity’ HR/RBI.

                    • GhostTownSteve says:
                      (link)

                      @GhostTownSteve:

                      It will be tough for him to get to 75. I gave him the Steamer 667 projected PAs, upped his success rate to 75% from 70% and gave him a .320 OBP and applied the 44% rate at which he attempted a steal per time on base and got 70.5 SB projected. You’d really kind of need a BABIP bonanza or a big uptick in his success rate. Both are possible but not at all bankable. I do think there will be a good uptick in success rate just based on having seen the league.

  35. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    Alas, Scutaro’s quest for fusion fails to bring him unlimited power…now, he has plenty of time, and 6 million new shots at it…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Jager shots?

      • Wake Up says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I’m being told…Gilpin Family Whisky…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          It makes you bigger!

  36. Tyler says:
    (link)

    When should we start looking for the podcast/TV/radio/computer fusion fantasy bawler advice thing to begin?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      March

      • Tyler says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Awesome! Thanks

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
        (link)

        @Grey: so it was more a dearth of things to talk about every day during this time of year more than how badly hurt Nick got in the car accident (or car hit him, whichever). Still, could’ve just gone back to once a week like before, it was great then too.

  37. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Dickerson is going to get hurt. Rockies get hurt. It’s the altitude. That’s what Huston Street said. Murder on your body up there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, hopefully he’s young enough to avoid

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @GhostTownSteve: Huston Street also named his kid Ryder. Ryder Street. I’m not listening to anything he says.

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Cram It:

        are you shitting me? that’s an awesome name.

        • Wake Up says:
          (link)

          @GhostTownSteve: and his daughter is named Yurporname…

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Wake Up:

            Buster Posey is the perfect euphemism for devirgining a girl, correct?

            • Wake Up says:
              (link)

              @GhostTownSteve: Just spit out some of my urine whisky!

            • J-FOH says:
              (link)

              @GhostTownSteve: spit out morning coffee at lunch

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @GhostTownSteve: Sure, if you’re a porn star.

      • SteveNZ says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: Agreed. That’s terrible.

        What’s wrong with a good, solid name like Deadend?

  38. Big Nate says:
    (link)

    No Springer?? I thought we had unhealthy obsessions with upside here…

    • Big Nate says:
      (link)

      @Big Nate: And since I see this has been addressed multiple times above…..In a vacuum, Springer or Donaldson?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Soon

  39. Ron Swanson says:
    (link)

    You are probably going to be getting these questions a lot soon (if you haven’t already), but which 3 of these players would you keep? (I’m already keeping Rizzo and Arenado)

    Altuve, Pujols, Bautista, Ellsbury, Fielder, Kluber, Soler

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Bautista, Altuve, Ellsbury

  40. Del Griffith says:
    (link)

    List looks good so far, but needs some OZUNA in top 40.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Oh yeah

  41. JP says:
    (link)

    Grey-I apologize in advance for asking a SP question in the top OF post. I am working on a deal where I am trying to acquire Alex Cobb it is an AL only 6×6 W, SV, Holds, IP, Whip and ERA. I initiated the trade talks as I am targeting a SP who I think will be a guy that I can plug in and not worry about and I am very high on Cobb. I looked at the proposed lineup after all the off season moves and I am concerned that he isn’t going to be able to give up more than two runs to get a W on any given day. I know you can’t chase wins but there lineup looks pretty weak. Where would he rank for you and would you be willing to take a shot at a projection for me? Thanks for all your work here.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      My SP rankings and projections come out next week

  42. Charlie says:
    (link)

    Grey, 6×5 including obp keep 7 forever in the round they’re drafted. These are my 7 keepers and corresponding round.

    Trout (1), Stanton (2), Adam Jones (3), Goldschmidt (5), Arenado (13), Frazier (24), Scherzer (4)

    I know you have Adam Jones rated above Rendon but in my league that counts obp would you trade Adam Jones (3) for Rendon (24)?

    Also if I did this I wouldn’t be able to keep Frazier at 24 since Rendon would be my 24 round keeper. So I’d have the choice of keeping Sale (5 – I have an additional 5 round pick), Buxton (21), Cobb (6), or Gray (15).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take Rendon… Sale

      • Charlie says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I think in a vacuum Rendon is better value than Adam Jones considering obp and round. However, I’m surprised you’re advocating Sale and Rendon over Adam Jones and Frazier especially knowing I’m keeping Scherzer and how valuable offense is and I wouldn’t be able to keep Sale after this year since I only have one 5th round pick. You still take the Rendon/Sale side?

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Charlie: You asked Rendon or Jones. And Sale or those other pitchers. You’ve been mixing and matching this question 18 different ways all week, Chaz.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          You didn’t give a hitter option besides Buxton

          • Charlie says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            All other hitters I have to choose from aren’t worth keeping.

            Sorry for being somewhat redundant but I’m just trying to find out the best choice of keepers.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Then Sale’s your best option left

              • Charlie says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Thanks!!

                I guess what it boils down to is which option is better

                a) Jones and Wong(maybe)

                or

                b) Rendon and an OFer I’d draft in the 3rd round (maybe Dickerson? idk, just throwing out an Ofer)

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  B

  43. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
    (link)

    Nice top 20. Since I don’t have any major arguments to make for/against these players and where they’re slotted (outside of Harper, which has already been addressed), I decided to run a few numbers and do a blind resumé type of deal.

    Here are four groupings, each containing three players and using their ’14 stats. Each group has one OF from this list, a corner infielder, and a middle infielder, with the players in each positional groupings holding similar ’15 ADPs. How would you rank these stat lines (R/HR/RBI/SB/BA) in terms of most to least favorable if you were drafting a team in a standard 12 team 5×5 roto league?

    A) 220 / 42 / 198 / 64 / .279
    B) 201 / 64 / 211 / 64 / .247
    C) 215 / 53 / 194 / 66 / .268
    D) 206 / 53 / 215 / 62 / .257

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      B, C, D… If B is Yunel, Mark Reynolds and Billy Hamilton, we’re no longer friends

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Can set a watch by you, Albright. If you have a watch that keeps track of fantasy baseball analysis rather than keeps time (I do have such a watch).

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Where did you buy such a watch? It sounds wonderful!

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Down in the Dork District. Corner of 3rd and Acne

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              As long as it’s not 3rd with Asche…. Snort, snort, hiccup!

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Hahaha. I’d never do that to you!

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Big Magoo: C!

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: Agreed

    • GhostTownSteve says:
      (link)

      @Big Magoo:

      I think it’s pretty easy to compare C favorably to B and D. 412, 409, and 421 R+RBI respectively basically a wash. The 9 extra homers for me aren’t enough to compensate for the .021 BA gap between B and C. The 12 extra R+RBI also not quite enough to bridge the .011 BA gap plus the 4 extra bags though the margin in thinner on C and D for me.

      A is tougher to slot. If you have that big a BA advantage you can add some low BA power guys. I don’t think you get quite the discount on low BA power guys you once did though given the lack of power.

      I’d say C is the easiest, most flexible to play, A and B are sides of a coin with maybe a slight nod to B and D with the least to recommend it.

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @GhostTownSteve: Nice breakdown. Your Hamilton comments from earlier got my wheels turning. Just thought it would be interesting to see what stats people would prefer without any names attached to them.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Big Magoo: Interesting. C seems to be the most popular, followed by B, then A, with D bringing up the rear. Now for the big reveal…

      A is Starling Marte, Adam LaRoche, and Alcides Escobar

      B is Billy Hamilton, Chris Carter, and Jhonny Peralta

      C is Marte, Carter, and Escobar

      D is Hamilton, LaRoche, and Peralta

      Remember, this is using ’14 stats and early ’15 NFBC ADP data. Marte is the 40th player off the board with an ADP of 40.79; Hamilton is 44th with a 45.59 ADP. Carter is 133rd with a 134.28 ADP, while LaRoche is 144th with a 144.55 ADP. Escobar and Peralta are off the board a bit later, with ADPs of 164.79 and 181.14 respectively.

      Very interesting to see how these groups played out. Thanks for playing.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        But you’re not drafting groupings of players, you’re drafting 3 different players…

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Grey: but their nerdiness is different from your nerdiness, do i need to remind you of the silicon valley jerk algorithm?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            @J-FOH: Nope got it

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Grey: This was spurred on by the Hamilton conversation above. If you draft Hamilton, you’re looking to purely add power at these positions later on since your speed is in good hands. Otherwise, why burn a 4th round pick on a 70 steal player?

          If you opt for Marte, you’re likely looking to add power but with a bit more balance. It’s just a rough idea of what type of stats one could be looking at depending on what strategy he/she decides utilizing.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            @Big Magoo: He/she? I wonder if one of our 4 she’s are reading this… I’m not burning a 4th round pick on 70 steals, I’m just saying this is an unfair exercise… You could say it’s Jose Abreu, Jeff Keppinger and Marte, but no one’s drafting Keppinger… You want the stats, but you don’t want to get there certain ways…

            • Big Magoo

              Big Magoo says:
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              @Grey: Hey, don’t want to alienate one of the she’s… It’s pointless to do this type of exercise involving early draft picks for a snake draft format because who you end up with is largely determined by what slot you draft out of. Once you get 35-40 players players into the draft, then things open up a bit and the entire player population is available regardless of where you draft from… In your example, Abreu might not be available by the time your first pick comes around, and Keppinger isn’t worth drafting, so it’s pointless to do this exercise with them…

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Big Magoo: one issue I had in one RCL last year and this would only apply to competitive RCL’s was there was no SAGNOF to be seen at a certain point. Call me crazy, no call me nuts, but a zig with Hamilton in the 4th may not be the worst idea…not great either but a cust kayin

                • Big Magoo

                  Big Magoo says:
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                  @J-FOH: It also has to do with risk management, which was discussed earlier. If an owner drafts Hamilton and counts on him to provide 40% of his team’s SB total, that team is a pulled hamstring away from having to make trades to offset that loss or just punt a category completely.

                  With an injury to Marte, that owner would be able to assess the standings and decide whether to try to recoup the steals elsewhere or go in a different direction. Wouldn’t be forced to punt though, most likely.

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Big Magoo: I also like to make trades, and will draft another speedster and try to dump him for 50 cents on the dollar to someone who cant hurt me. Actually thats crazy talk…in here, but I hear you guys, just playing the zig cars when you know where the others are getting their info from.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Exercise, actually, in general, is pointless… Stupid cardio!

                • J-FOH says:
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                  @Grey: cardio is for crazies…unless you’re chasing tail!

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    wet tail?

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: I don’t chase gerbil diarrhea thats been rammed down my throat every day of 2014, I leave that to the ESPN peeps.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Yeah, I’m still trying to find how wet tail became a good thing. And having gerbil diarrhea shoved down your throat for a year usually leads to health issues. You should go in for a checkup.

                    • Kid A says:
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                      @Sky:

                      Nothing I hate more than agreeing with Jack

                      but

                      why name-check a shameless self-promotion campaign disguised as a joke that was forced on everyone for months, doesn’t make any goddamn sense, and was never funny?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Much like Kim Kardashian’s ass lumps, one day I woke up and they were just there; but I don’t know when they came to be, truthfully. I just saw it everywhere. Who’s a shameless self-promoter? I got Grey in Mom jeans going and it took very little publicity. Mayhap they could sign me up as their marketer.

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: Kid A agrees with, I need to go buy lotto tickets! Mom Jeans is great, I plan on making a pair of mom jeans cutoffs for Phoenix!

                    • Kid A says:
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                      @Sky: because mom jeans is a gem. no one can/will ever take that away from you.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      It’ll probably be my crowning achievement around here. It’ll go on my internet gravestone.

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: so is that a mom jeans no go for Phoenix?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Grey will have a night of wearing Mom jeans. That should satiate us all. Grey in Mom jeans cutoffs…almost as scary as you in them.

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: then I can wear my regular ones commando

                • Big Magoo

                  Big Magoo says:
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                  @Grey: It’s always a good idea to alternate arms when raising/lowering your drinking glass. Fantastic workout.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Haha

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Big Magoo: you could of said one armed curls. Back in the day when I drank 40’s it was a gun show around these parts.

                  • Kid A says:
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                    @Big Magoo: With your level of consumption you must look like PopEye.

  44. SPAPS2 says:
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    Nice work Grey, I’m in a 12 team keeper, 7×7 keep 3, who would you keep?
    Rizzo, Rendon, Cano, Longoria, altuve, desmond or the wildcard springer?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Rizzo, Rendon, Desmond

      • say it with me now, Bodega says:
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        @Grey: really desmond over springer?

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @say it with me now, Bodega: top 3 SS for, what 3 str years? dude’s consistent as hell.

  45. Hoosier Daddy says:
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    Grey-

    Soler @ $7, or Yellich @ $16?

    Thanks for EVERYTHING!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Soler

  46. LomaV says:
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    Looking for help here….about a month ago, Im not sure who posted it…but somebody posted a link to a website that had lineup projections, and they were SUPER up to date….I looked through past blogs, but couldnt find that site…if anyone knows the site, it would be huge! Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Look under Tools at top of this site

  47. LomaV says:
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    Duh. Thanks Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No problem

  48. JP says:
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    Grey-13 team 6×6 AL Only Roto-R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, and OBP. It is a snake draft. We can keep the players forever and with Profar I would have to keep him through the draft and then could farm him after the season starts. I am able to keep 8 and here are my options
    Zunino (2 Catcher league)
    Jose Reyes
    Jose Abreu
    Marcus Semien
    Oswaldo Arcia
    Adam Jones
    Jake Marisnick
    Mike Trout
    J Profar
    M Machado
    Other than the obvious of Reyes, Abreu, Trout and Jones who do you like for the other spots? I was inclined to get rid of Semien and Marisnick
    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Get rid of those two

  49. Bazzrall says:
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    in a dynasty Pujols/Ross or Braun/Gausman

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Pujols

  50. bossmanjunior says:
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    In the Tulo blurb, you mentioned he would be more valuable depending how deep your league was. Do you mean the more shallow your league, the more risks you should take because the replacement pool is deeper? So in a shallow 10 team.league I shouldnt be so risk adverse and prefer a guy like Tulo over Desmond or Hanley? Then again its h2h, not sure if that changes anything.

    • Adult Onset Dia Bit Us says:
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      @bossmanjunior: the deeper the league, the worse a replacement player is (free agents), so when somebody gets injured the dropoff gets worse and worse; this means the shallower the league the safer you need players to be in general, esp those in the early rounds. One of the draft paradigms in Baseball Forecaster says to ONLY look at players who at least have some consistency and health (along with playing time), no matter how good they could be. Obviously if one of these super injury risk types were to fall really low you’d grab them.

  51. bdub says:
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    H2H, 12 teams. All 12 round keepers or later except tanaka 7 and castro 8. Keep 6.
    Rizzo
    Dozier
    Castro
    Baez
    Soler
    JD Martinez
    Tanaka
    Sale
    Harvey
    Arrieta

  52. say it with me now, Bodega says:
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    Trying to build a dynasty here. Won last year, and have four keepers in a 14 team league. This is the first year I have to pay full price for trout but fortunately as champion I will be selecting 14th (snake draft) so the first rounder is even now kind of a steal. Like when you “borrow” a friends shirt, ya know the guilt free kind. but as I have been keeping my eyes on the future and present, i have a couple of players I want to keep that could provide possibly more value.
    trout 1st
    arenado 9th
    rendon 18th
    dickerson ADP +3 rounds (are yahoos out already?)
    soler ADP + 3 rounds
    gerritt cole 25th round
    will myers 15th round (not sure if i am ready to give up on him yet? thoughts?)
    k bryant ADP +3 rounds
    y ventura 18th round

    And props, i too find pelicula and peculiar to be very annoying to say.

    • Adult Onset Dia Bit Us says:
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      @say it with me now, Bodega: do you mean you can only keep a couple (2) of these? otherwise i don’t get the question.

      • Adult Onset Dia Bit Us says:
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        @Adult Onset Dia Bit Us: nevermind, you say 4 exactly. why would you have to pay THIS year’s ADP for dickerson (if i’m reading it correctly). it’ll be pretty early. arenado/rendon/trout are clearly 3 of them. who even determine’s who’s ADP counts for this? yahoo/espn/mockdraft central?

  53. Greyismyhero says:
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    great stuff….praying that MF is in a do not draft tier, lol

    • Greyismyhero says:
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      @Greyismyhero:

      STG—420

  54. CW Evans says:
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    Trying to decide on OF keepers in a 10 player keeper league with 12 teams Head to head – points
    Mike trout -contract
    Carlos gomez- contract
    Justin Upton- been trying to move in a trade but no takers
    Billy hamilton

    other bats
    F freeman- contract
    k sager been trying to pair w Upton for better 3B
    Dee Gordon

    thanks

  55. Oregon Uglies says:
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    Standard Yahoo. Can keep 9.. Thoughts?

    Pujols
    Soler
    G Polanco
    Votto
    Danny Santana
    Ellsbury
    Duda
    CarGo
    Longoria
    Cueto
    Teheren
    Zimmerman

  56. PeteRosesRevenge says:
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    Great Stuff grey……..looking forward to seeing the “Baby Sitters Sweet Sweet Can” tire

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha!

Comments are closed.