Today, we go over the top 40 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball. Yesterday, we went over the top 20 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball. It will be a date which will live in…Well, it won’t live in infamy, so what’s the opposite of that? Famy? It will live in unfamy? That’s just ridiculous. What are you, the 7-Up guy? By the time you get to these outfielders, I’m sure you’ve drafted at least one outfielder. If you haven’t, wake from your slumber, Rip Van Schmucko, your draft is slipping away from you. There’s a lot of interesting names in this top 40. Jason Heyward is an interesting name. It was even more interesting when it was Jason “Future Superstar” Heyward. All of the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings are there. If you right click that and open it in a new tab, your car will get a free oil change (it won’t). Without further delay (there really wasn’t much delay, I mean, that was a short intro compared to most)… Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball:
21. Jason Heyward – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Calhoun. I called this tier, “Give me some lovin’!” Here’s what I said this offseason, “The Braves had the 5th best ERA last year in the major leagues. That’s with a down year by Mike Minor, and injuries to Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen. Their runs scored were second to last in the majors. Only the Padres’ offense was worse. So, naturally, they trade away Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins, who had a sub-5 K/9 in High-A last year. Oh…*pounds out a chicken cutlet, fills it with spinach and ricotta cheese, rolls it up, ties it with twine, bakes it on 450 for 18-22 minutes, pulls it out and breathes in the aroma* …kay. That’s the Chicken Florentine pause. Practiced by many, only able to be pulled off by a few. I rarely pull out the Chicken Florentine pause, but trading a top hitting prospect that is only 25 years old, when your team is hurting for offense, is straight up baffling with a pickleback. Are the Braves trying to bring the entire organization down to Fredi’s level of intelligence? Did Fredi tell management that they had too many top of the order hitters (they have none) and they needed another arm (they don’t)? Are the Braves trying to get featured in the third sequel to Major League? I got questions, y’all! From a fantasy perspective, Heyward’s value goes up simply because the Cardinals are a better offensive team. Like someone doing yoga, Heyward will now be surrounded by Matts — Carpenter and Holliday. What will Heyward produce? Go ask the Sphinx. One year he looks like a 30-homer hitter, another year he looks like a middle infielder with 20 steal speed. He could be anywhere from a 15-homer guy to a 30-homer guy. The 20 steals, now in two of five seasons, look possible, until you see he has a year of only 2 steals. His .271 average last year is around his career average (.262), so that seems repeatable, until you see his .227 average in 2011. At some point, he could have a 30-homer, 20-steal top 20 fantasy season, but to say it’s definitely coming is you lying to yourself. You already lie to yourself in other areas of your life, let’s not start with Heyward too.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 91/20/75/.274/15
22. Wil Myers – This offseason, I said, “It’s beginning to feel like it’s not an offseason without a trade of Wil Myers. In three short years, he’s gone from the Royals to the Rays and now on to the Padres. Only place he can go from the Padres is the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. They would hope Myers could carry them against their most hated rivals, the Yakuza Spits. The Miller Lite-inspired commercials between the Spits and Swallows in Japan are a real crack up. Tastes great!…Spit it out!…Tastes great!…Spit it out! Before Myers is pushing daisies in the NPB, he’ll bide his time in San Diego and try to right this rapidly sinking prospect boat. “Ice-cold sophomore year right ahead!” In all for realliness, I was planning on jumping back in the Myers sinking ship prior to this trade, and I don’t think it kills his value. Would I prefer he went to Coors? Yeah, well, dur. I also don’t think a 24-year-old former top prospect is washed up just because he had one bad year after fracturing his wrist. Takes time to bounce back from that type of injury and one thing we have is time. Well, you with the oxygen mask and cigarette might have less time. In a few years, we’re going to look back at Myers’s 2014 as it should be viewed now, a blip. I’m about as sure of that as Kilimanjaro rises like Olympus above the Serengeti. Or as sure of it that I’m listening to too much Toto’s Africa. Sure, Petco won’t do him any favors, but if his wrist is at hundred percent there shouldn’t be any problems getting at least 20 homers. Shoot, he could hit 10 homers in just his road games in Coors and Arizona.” And that’s me copying and pasting me! 2015 Projections: 61/20/72/.277/8
23. Jay Bruce – I still have a hard time sitting down after the screwing that Bruce gave me last year. Gotchies worn after eating Olestra have nothing on the gotchies I wore while owning Bruce last year. Last year, on our Player Rater, Bruce was the 46th best outfielder. So, in his worst season, he was still relevant. I point that out to say I know it was a struggle to own him last year, but to also say he’s a lot more reliable than the impression you got. Crap, now I want to listen to that one Mighty Mighty Bosstones song for an hour straight. Have you ever been close to tragedy? Yes, I owned Bruce last year! Close to folks who have? Not close, I was the one who owned him! Never had to knock on wood, but I would’ve last year if I thought it would’ve helped Bruce! Okay, I need to shuffle my iTunes. Bruce’s strikeouts have been moving in the wrong direction since he entered the league. He’s swinging at too many balls outside the strike zone and not swinging at balls inside enough. He might want to go to Brian McCann’s eye doctor. But, even with these scary trends, he was also unlucky last year and should’ve hit closer to .240 (instead of .217). I don’t think we’re going to see a top 10 outfielder as he was hinting at with his repeated 30+ HRs, 7-ish steals, but he should bounce back from last year’s abomination. At least that’s the impression that I get! 2015 Projections: 77/27/89/.235/9
24. Marcell Ozuna – You haven’t reached J.D. Martinez yet, unless you skipped ahead, in which case we’re no longer friends, but Martinez and Marcell were essentially the same last year. Martinez hit for a much better average and stole a few more bases, but more or less, here or there, cliche or cliche, they were the same. So, why am I up on one and down on another in a non-sexual way? Great question, clunky set-up sentence! Comes down to their track records in the minors and age. Marcell will be three years younger than Martinez and Marcell hit 23 and 24 homers in back-to-back minor league seasons. Marcell looks like someone who can grow into 30-homer power (and maybe a .250 average) whereas Martinez looks like someone who could grow into a utility player. In other words, OZUNA EAT YOUR CHILDREN. OZUNA TALKING TO COWS. OZUNA LIKE VEAL. 2015 Projections: 71/27/83/.261/5
25. Christian Yelich – Last year, Yelich did a lot. He hit 9 homers, stole 21 bases, hit .284, went to his Senior Prom, told his mom he didn’t want to go to college because he wanted to play in the majors full-time, moved out of his family home and balanced a checkbook. This next year will be just as challenging as he has his heart broken for the first time. Sad songs say so much, so turn them on, Yelich. 2015 Projections: 82/14/61/.288/22
26. Jorge Soler – I already gave you my Jorge Soler fantasy. I wrote it while dog fighting my right and left hand shadow puppets. 2015 Projections: 73/25/81/.278/5
27. Kole Calhoun – I was very close to dropping Calhoun into the next tier, and saying unequivocally that I was not drafting him. Instead, I took the chicken way out and put him in a tier of guys I would draft, but in a place where I likely won’t have a chance to draft Calhoun. By this point in the tier, I’ll probably already have drafted a second outfielder and won’t need Calhoun. It’s weird which guys the fantasy community decides to boost up. Okay, not weird like a third nipple. For some odd reason, everyone is ranking Calhoun really high even though he doesn’t have huge power, speed or average. He’s kinda Jayson Werth-ish, which is not *pinkie to mouth* Werth-less. There’s value in that, for sure, and that’s why I ranked him here, but it’s not exactly exciting. If he hits 22 homers and steals 10 bases, which is being optimistic, that’s less than a homer a week and a steal every two weeks. Sounds okay in the big picture, but when you’re living through a year when a guy hits 3 homers and steals 2 bases in a month, you kinda want to pull your hair out. 2015 Projections: 98/22/53/.269/10
28. Matt Holliday – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Martinez. I call this tier, “You drafted two OFs already, maybe even three, how about you chill now for a few?” I’m not drafting guys in this tier for one reason or another. The reason is probably due to age and overall decline, but I…DECLINE!!! to label them like that. Sorry, I let my 12-year-old nephew write the last sentence and he said multiple exclamation marks and caps was a good way to reach a younger generation. DUR!!! Him again. As for Holliday, look at these last four years: 22 HRs and 2 SBs; 27 HRs and 4 SBs, 22 HRs and 6 SBs; 20 HRs and 4 SBs. Pretty remarkably consistent, right? Okay, look at his line drive rate: 20.6%, 18.9%, 20.8% and 16.6%. Oops, last one not so good. His average also dipped last year by twenty-eight points from .300 to .272. That last average also starred in the straight-to-video sequel, Oopsie, Part II, These Aren’t Getting Better. 2015 Projections: 85/20/91/.274/3
29. Charlie Blackmon – If we were to get a repeat of last year, when Blackmon had the tenth best fantasy outfielder’s numbers, I’m ranking him way too low. Brucely, I’m surprised I have him ranked this high. I tried to lower him a lot more. I.e., I tried to keep the Blackmon down. Fun fact! If you were to put Charlie Blackmon into a Young Adult Novel Generator, it spits out: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Last year, he had 19 homers (career high by 13) and 28 steals (career high by 21). That’s not entirely accurate though. Don’t you love when I lie to you and then point it out? It’s not accurate because he never played a full season prior. His career high was six homers and seven steals but that was only in 82 games and he’s only 28 years old. He hit .288 last year and only had a 14.8% strikeout rate. He doesn’t walk much, but he’s not exactly a flapping flounder by the seashore either. If Weiss gets daffy with himself and starts thinking, Blackmon could get platooned, but he shouldn’t have any more of a chance of being platooned than Dickerson. Only thing that really has me reluctant is his lack of a track record. I just don’t see drafting a team with Blackmon, and I’m not subtly implying I have color-blindness. 2015 Projections: 79/15/60/.285/20
30. Hunter Pence – The Gangly Manbird sticks out like a sore thumb in this tier. Actually, he sticks out in every room and/or social situation he’s ever in. He’s the one macawing and changing a light bulb without the use of a ladder, just flapping his wings real slow. He sticks out in this tier because he doesn’t have huge upside and downside. He feels pretty safe. He also feels expensive for his brand of safe. I get it, offense is in the toilet and no one his flushing (a common Lawrence Taylor lament), but 20 HRs, 10 SBs and solid counting stats get you this high in the rankings? I guess. Now hurry up with that light bulb, Gangly Manbird! UPDATE: The Gangly Manbird had his wing clipped and will miss a few weeks of the regular season. No fear, he’s being seen by the best veterinarian. 2015 Projections: 70/17/85/.274/9
31. Alex Gordon – He’s in this tier more because he’s a victim of a lack of more guys like him. Gordon should have his own tier, “Not quite yawnstipating, but if you get aroused after drafting him, you should see a doctor.” For two seasons now, he’s had 20 HRs (+/- 1), 12 SBs (+/- 1) and .266 (+/- .001). Consistency is nothing to scoff at you scoffer! If he had three more homers in his projections, he’d be in the top 20 outfielders and if he had three less homers, he’d be out of the top 40. He’s just sorta…there. 2015 Projections: 84/20/70/.262/10
32. Brett Gardner – Oh, yeah, bee tee dubya, outfield is the one offensive position that is deep. Sorry, I was just reading your mind. Not your your. The other people reading this. I started reading your mind, but you started thinking about having your car fixed and I grew bored. I loved loved lurved Gardner for so many years because he had 15+ HR power and crazy speed. Unfortch, he finally showed that power last year (17 HRs) as he became too old to steal 40+ bases. He’s 31 years old now, and is coming off a 21-steal season. If he reverts to 12-ish homers and those steals, it’s far from glamorous. 2015 Projections: 78/11/49/.257/25
33. J.D. Martinez – Jew Don Martinez had a breakout season last year in much the same vein as Blackmon. What a mighty big vein that is, Blackmon. What!? I also don’t trust Jew Don Martinez. He exceeded his career in everything by a huge amount, and, unlike Blackmon, Martinez was also very fortunate with BABIP (.389). His strikeout rate was 26.3% last year and he could easily hit .250 and fall back into a platoon role. What could’ve been happening in 2014 is Martinez was getting very fortunate, which helped build his confidence and he kept hitting donks. Think that’s anecdotal and silly? Well, ain’t you judgmental! In September, he had a .491 BABIP and hit 6 homers. When you’re hitting at a .491 BABIP clip, you basically could hit a line drive at a fielder and a squirrel jumps in front of the glove and knocks the ball down for a double. With that kind of luck, you get full of yourself and swing at everything, and it works. It’s like you just got a promotion at work and you go to a bar to celebrate. At the bar, you’re talking to the hottest girl in the bar and she’s laughing. What do you do? You take her number and then go hit on 15 more girls with success because you’re in the zone. In August, Martinez had his worst full month for luck and hit .265 with 3 homers. Real world example: You get fired and you go to a bar to drown your sorrows. Five drinks in, you’ve hit on the entire bar and everyone is annoyed of your crap. Finally, the bouncer asks you to leave and everyone applauds your exit. I don’t want to be around when Jew Don gets escorted to the door. 2015 Projections: 69/17/80/.277/7
34. Avisail Garcia – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball. This tier is called, “Sexy sexy hot hot dot com that makes you clear your cookies.” The guys in this tier will either get a sleeper post or already have one or will simply get fawned over by yours truly. Someone fan me, I’m getting hot thinking about the guys in this tier. Seriously, fan me. Oh my God, I can’t cool off. One note about the projections in this tier, they are optimistic. At times, they are downright drug-induced. All I’ll say is if you draft a team you’re going to spend more time with over the six months than your own family, don’t you want players you want that are not just safe? As for Garcia, I already gave you my Avisail Garcia sleeper. I wrote it while making nudie Snapchats. 2015 Projections: 83/18/87/.261/14
35. Khris Davis – Last year, he hit 22 homers, but at times looked like arroz con pollo that had passed through an alpaca’s ass. I.e., his splits give animals the sh*ts. I hate that he hits righties worse than lefties. That’s a recipe for disaster. He does hit monster shots though, and that gives me the goose pimples. Watch him talk to the Hand. Only three homers last year by him were iffy, stadium-helped, bloop blasts. If Davis is going to hit 30+ homers, this is the year. To repeat with addition, this is the year I want to own him. 2015 Projections: 81/28/86/.255/5
36. A.J. Pollock – I already gave you my A.J. Pollock sleeper. I wrote it while wondering how I missed that Knight from The Real World: New Orleans died three months ago. 2015 Projections: 78/14/61/.272/20
37. Leonys Martin – Martin is an easy call for this tier. He already gave top 30 outfielder numbers last year if the Rangers wouldn’t have punted offense and provided better counting stats to my favorite Martin. Look at his numbers 7 HRs, 31 SBs, .274. That’s at 26 years old. If he barely takes a step forward and gets 12 HRs, 35 SBs, he’s a top 15 outfielder and a lucky average away from being top 10. Think Blackmon from last year, which is not to say the black guys that had a problem with you selling “I Can’t Breathe” t-shirts at your local mall kiosk. The highest compliment I can pay Leonys is I was trying to see how I could rank him in the top 20 outfielders without looking like I was batshizz crazy. Say it loud, say it proud, I love Leonys. Or as Key & Peele’s Substitute Teacher would call him, Leon Wise, after calling on D Nice and AA-Ron. 2015 Projections: 77/12/51/.262/31
38. Gregory Polanco – I’m a junkie fiending to draft Polanco in 2015. How I have not written a sleeper post about him yet is egregious, Jackie Chiles. I’m petering around so much it’s appalling because I wanna be marrying Polanco. Folk music puns! Polanco could hit 15 homers, steal 30 bases and why haven’t I drafted him yet. Someone start a draft right now so I can grab him. Thank you. 2015 Projections: 68/14/59/.267/25
39. Oswaldo Arcia – I already gave you my Oswaldo Arcia sleeper. I wrote it while wondering if Corey Hart still wears sunglasses at night. 2015 Projections: 65/27/68/.242/3
40. Lorenzo Cain – I don’t like bandwagoners, no relation to Lindsay Wagner. You’re either with me from the start or there’s no room for you when I’m living high on the hog, digging on swine and dancing like Carlton. Cain…Sugar! has long been a favorite of mine and now he suddenly feels like he’s a favorite of everyone’s after last October. For this reason, I may not get him this year. People may just be more aggressive in drafting him than I or me, depending on grammar rules. This brings me to a side note that is actually related unlike most of my side notes. It seems to me that the mass media gets excited about a player (Cain…Sugar! in this case). Not fantasy ‘perts, this is TV and general sports media. Then after they get excited about a player, the general public gets excited about a player, including some fantasy baseballers. Then fantasy ‘perts, not wanting to disappoint the people that are excited about someone, rank a player much higher than if they were just going on stats. This is usually how players get overrated. There’s little other reason to explain how Mauer is still ranked in the top 100 for some ‘perts. Just because the general public has heard of a guy it doesn’t make him good for fantasy. Unrelated side note, I just realized I might like Cain…Sugar a bit because if you look at his name real fast it looks like Cougar. Do what you will with that info. 2015 Projections: 74/8/77/.274/23
No G Polanco in the top 40!!
@Philip Chiaracane: Makes me hopeful I can snag him later on in draft
@Philip Chiaracane: Soon
I’m in a 12 team H2H keeper auction league with a $260 budget, 5 keepers, no keeper year limitations, and $5 annual inflation. The majority of the League tends to overspending on quality – to elite SP (ex: Verlander went for $55, Lee went for $41 last draft).
Which five would you advise keeping out of the following:
Mad Bum: $28
Joey Bats: $26
Brantley: $6
Dickerson: $6
Arrieta: $6
Carrasco Sauce: $6
Frazier: $6
As always, thanks for all you do Grey… Your inputs are much appreciated!
@Moneyballin:
I’m not Grey but….
Bumgarner, Brantley, Dickerson, Arrieta, and Frasier are easy choices for me.
@Moneyballin: What Hawk said… Well, not the part about not being me…
Grey!
Writing to you from the Frankfurt airport going home after my one-year assignment in Lebanon.
1. Things I’ll miss?….Falafel and shawarma from my buddy Chachi in Al Qoubaiyat.
2. Things I won’t miss?…Everything to do with Hezbollah especially the fact they have more weaponry than most COUNTRIES.
3. On a brighter note, really enjoying the OF top 40. The 21-40 group represents the best high risk high return, right?
Cheers,
Ante
@Ante GALIC: Congrats on making it through! 1, You’ll find other things you missed more 2. Yup 3. Thanks! Yeah
I’m in a 12 team, H2H, keeper league. I’m reigning champ, so I have the 12th pick in the draft. We get to keep our keepers in the round we drafted them. We keep 5 players. I wish I could keep a couple more. Here are my best players.
Adam Jones – Round 1
Evan Longoria – Round 2
Jose Bautista – Round 3
Jay Bruce – Round 3
Jordan Zimmermann – Round 5
Alex Gordon -Round 6
Jose Altuve -Round 8
Brian McCann -Round 9
Doug Fister -Round 12
Victor Martinez – Round 14
Avisail Garcis -Round 21
Michael Pineda – Round 22
Dee Gordon -Round 23
Jake Arrieta – Round 23
Derek Holland – Round 23
Jose Quintana – Round 23
I’m thinking of keeping:
Jones, cause he’s a top 10 guy and I’m not going to get a top guy if I don’t keep him.
Bautista, cause guys hitting over 30 HRs isn’t easy these days.
Zimmermann, but I have to see his he gets traded to a team that could hurt his value.
Altuve, cause 2B is shallow and him in the 8th round is great value.
My last spot is between Dee Gordon, cause SS is thin and I’d get him in the last round. V-Mart, who I know isn’t going to be as good as he was last year, but at round 14 is worth seeing what he does. And Arrieta, who I can get in the last round and could really be a steal.
I know things can change, but what 5 would you keep?
@TheMuppetManiac: I would definitely keep Garcia in there.
@TheMuppetManiac: Jones, Joey Bats, Altuve, V-Mart, Dee
Pitching is deep.
@TheMuppetManiac: Jones, Bautista, Altuve, Avisail, Gordon
I have to say that no Polanco is making me a bit scared of my keeper list.
@apoxonbothyourhouses: Soon
Aw, now we have to play Where’s Oswaldo?
@Shaggy: practicing not stepping in the bucket…
@Shaggy: Soon
It makes me wonder if I could.
It makes me wonder if I…
Who would have guessed the song was actually about drafting Jay Bruce!
What ever happened to ska, btw? Granted, the only music I hear these days is whatever’s playing in the gym.
@Tigres: Ska presumably died when all the white people wanting to do reggae got old… See Gwen Stefani
Ahhh … go my fix good this a.m. Thanks Grey!
YES, YES, Yes, Yes, yes, yes …
(Go Islanders!)
@Buge Hoobs: YES….YES…..YES………..
@Buge Hoobs: No problem
H2h, 5×5, 10 teams and you keep 8. Lineup is c, 1b, 2b, SS, 3b, ci, Mi, 4 of, and a util. 4sp, 2 rp, 2 p.
Who should I keep from this list? I can trade for draft picks as well.
J abreu, au shizz, rizzo, arenado, Gomez, cargo, Dickerson, b hamilton, d Gordon, betts, xander, Teheran, wacha, greinke, Kimbrel, Cobb, Bailey
Was offered something with abreu for rendon. Worth it since I’m loaded at 1b? Thanks.
@On paper all stars: I could see taking Rendon there
@Grey: Depends on how long you can keep players for. If it’s forever, then I think trading 28 year old Abreu (with your 1B depth) for Rendon. If you can only keep for a limited time and they are on the same contract timeline, I’d probably still do it because of your MI spot and the lack of depth at 2B and SS vs the corners, but it would be closer.
In my keeper, every player has a 5 year expiration period from the time they were drafted. Maybe my league is different than most.
Thanks. Unlimited time. Who would be your 8 keepers from that list?
@On paper all stars: J abreu, au shizz, rizzo, arenado, Gomez, cargo, Dickerson, b hamilton
MORE!!!!! GIVE ME MORE!!!!
I mean… Thanks?
Dynasty roto keeper (6×6 w/ OPS and Holds), 15 teams
Salazar/Arcia/Chris Owings for A. Gordon/Kyle Zimmer/Jeurys (<– autocheck wanted to make that "aneurysm") Familia
Danke
@KC: Ha…it must have seen his tween inning warm-up…
@Wake Up: Ha
@KC: Ha… Salazar
Just looking at the projections, some of the OF look better than someone like Ian Desmond, yet he is in the top 20 overall. Is this mainly due to position scarcity, or do you go by guy feeling as well? Thanks
@Jones: Depends who you mean
Grey,
Yeoman’s work.
Would love your input (phrasing) would love your insight (!) with a keeper decision:
“Yahoo” style lineups, so only 3 OF’s & 1 Util – 6×6 ops, roto, yada yada yada – Can only pick 5 keepers. Think i have the 4 mapped okay, A.Jones, Abreu, Arenado, Dickerson. The last one is a bit tricky.
Choosing between Billy Hamilton, V-Mart, and Soler. Only mention Soler because you can keep players for as long as you want year by year. What say you good sir?
Thinking of taking Hamilton but then OF is so deep while other positions quality is scarce, plus then I have less room to fit the “Hot surprise outfielder du jour” on my team without kicking myself for sticking with Hamilton.
@Shakespeare DiMaggio: I’d go Hamilton
DUR!!! Him again.
I cracked up.
@PK: Thanks!
My thing always corrects the Mets to Meta…which I kinda get, cuz they’re bot funny either…
@Wake Up: Sandy Alderson always goes to Sammy Elderson for me
Sail!
@PK: Avi!
Grey!
Keeper question for ya, I have already decided on 4 of my 5 keepers but keep flipping back and forth between Blackmon and J.D. Martinez….they both are being kept at last round value as I picked both of them up off the waiver wire last year so that’s not an issue. Which guy would you go with? My league is 6 x 6 with offensive stats being R, HR, RBI, TB, SB, and OBP. Thanks!
@Rob B.: What are your other options other than those 2?
@Eddie: And what are you already keeping?
@Rob B.: Blackmon
Colorado huh?
Off topic,
I currently have used ESPN to run my fbb. Not happy with some limitation. Any recommendations on paid managed sites. All star stats waaaay too pricey.
@Hoody: I wouldn’t use anything other than ESPN, Yahoo or CBS
@Grey: I’m not a big fan of CBS or ESPN because of navigation through the site. Yahoo offers less league options, but if you have normal settings then I would lean towards Yahoo.
How does your assessment of Springer change in an OBP league?
@Big Nate: He’s a bit more valuable… OBP rankings will be forthcoming
@Grey: do you do ops rankings too?
They’ll be up sometime in Feb.
Great work, as always. I get to keep 5. I’m leaning towards the following. Should I replace any of them with Phil Hughes (would be 24th Rd.), Javier Baez (would be 24th Rd.) or Bogaerts (would be 20th Rd)? We get to keep them for as many years as we want, with a 2 round inflation each year.
Springer – 11th Rd.
Calhoun – 14th Rd.
Wong – 16th Rd.
J. Fernandez – 24th Rd.
I. Desmond – 20th Rd.
@Jet: Xander over Calhoun
I can keep 9 players in a H2H points league that starts 3 outfielders and only 1 UTIL spot. I’m considering keeping Dickerson and Calhoun, but also have Avisail Garcia and A.J. Pollock who are on the fringe. I like all four, but their unproven track records give me pause. I’ll sort it all out but am glad to see that all four are in your top 40 OF’s.
@NCPhilly: Cool
6×6 ROTO (2 catcher) $270, ~40% inflation
keep one of:
Ellsbury 29
Heyward 13
Gattis 8
keep two of (or three instead of a player above)
Calhoun 8
Y. Gomes 8
Arrieta 6
Trumbo 8
C. Carter 8
@McNulty: Heyward, Calhoun, Arrieta
So, what do you do when you have a tier like “give me some lovin'” where there’s a lot guys that still feel like youngsters w/potential regardless of age (Springer/Myers/Ozuna/Soler) mixed in with guys that feel like they’ve been around forever w/the same uncertainty about them (Marte/Heyward/Bruce). Do you lean toward the yutes’ ceiling potential they haven’t reached yet or the perceived vets’ track record of bouncing back? Do you draft one over the other or a mix of both if they’re both there? Note: I only say “perceived vets” because I thought most of the guys in this tier were fairly close in age, just not service time.
@Clint: Marte, Bruce and Heyward aren’t old
@Clint: marte feels like he’s been around forever, really? i’ve only been playing a few years (less than 5), and that sounds nutty to me.
5×5, 14 team mixed league. Everyting else equal, where do you see more value–J. Harrison or J. Pederson?
Thanks.
Peter
@Peter: I think Joc’s upside is worth it alone. But that’s only if he’s an everyday starter.
@Moneyballin:
I’m not Grey but….
Bumgarner, Brantley, Dickerson, Arrieta, and Frasier are easy choices for [email protected]Eddie:
Yup, playing time concerns are the only thing that’d stop me from going after Pederson.
@Peter: Pederson
Geez, OF seems so deep this year, guess I’ll try to load up on as many as possible!
Question for a 7×7 (OBP/TB, QS/L added), keep 14 each year, no penalties…
Which side do you like?
Pujols/T. Ross or
Braun/Gausman?
@The Balking Dead: You asked this yesterday, Pujols
Hi Grey… great to see you back at it. You betting on the Mariners again this year?
Keeper league, heavily favors pitching.
Gave: Sale, LuCroy
Got: Rendon, Lynn
I already have Scherzer, Greinke, Iwakuma and others so am pretty set at pitching. Rendon has great dynasty price tag for this and future years. Thumbs up or down on this deal?
@Tio: Nah, I bet on a different team… Sounds good
Grey, do you think Jose Fernandez is a steal where he is projected to be drafted?
1) He has way too much damn swagger to be drafted that low
2) I think he will bounce back pretty nicely. Sure, his slider might not be as sexy but ya know
@Eddie:
Fernandez may not be back until July, August. Even then, guys with TJ aren’t “themselves” until 16-18 months after surgery. I wouldn’t trust him at all this year and I’d avoid him entirely unless you’re talking keeper / dynasty format.
@Hawk: Yeah that’s true. I had him as a keeper last year (unfortunately). I was thinking he would be back a little earlier. Sucks to be brought back to earth :(
@Hawk: he won’t be available as a free agent in any competitive dynasty league, but his trade cost could be low.
@Eddie: He should be back around late-July, early-August
@Grey: I’m actually glad he’s being kept in my keeper league, because I could see myself getting drunk at the draft and nabbing him way too early only to deal with the heart break… then not keeping him next year out of angst, only to watch him battle Kershaw for the best pitcher in 2016.
I need to protect myself from future Tim sometimes…
Gey…are you my long-lost twin?? I swear we have love affairs on the same players. I may have your fanboy team as one of my teams…
Really have a question on draft strategy on this one.
Points league, keep 10 (takes your first 10 draft picks off the board), pretty standard scoring setup. I have the third overall pick….
Keepers are as follows:
Goldy
Cano
Arenado
Cutch
CarGomez
Springer
Yordano
Arrieta
Stroman
Harvey
As it stands, I have 1B, 2B, 3B, OF, and SP set. C, SS, 2 OF spots, and my RP spots open. I was thinking about just going best available early, because most likely focusing on any one spot early would require me reaching bad for someone and missing out on sure talent. Thoughts?
@Snerd: Actually, we are… Say hello to our mother for me! Go for best available
@Grey: i realize it’s a not-so-innocent typo but…Gey=Cey=LA=Grey. Hence Gey=Grey by way of Ron Cey and the LAD.
Cheers,
Ante
Would you trade Castillo for Wong in a keeper league?
I have a lot of OF depth for keepers and was planning on keeping Alcantara, but with the trade, no longer thinking of keeping him.
Currently planned keepers (Keep 15, $320 max – salary only in play when submitting keepers);
C –
1B – Rizzo ($18)
2B –
3B – Arendo ($14)
SS – Escobar ($15)
IF –
OF – Braun ($46)
OF – CarGo ($37)
OF – Harper ($30)
OF – Springer ($20)
DH – Marte ($20)
Bench – Rusney Castillo ($15)
Bench – Yasmani Tomas ($15)
SP – Gray ($20)
SP – Samardzija ($16)
SP – Cole ($18)
SP – McHugh($15)
SP –
RP – Melancon ($14)
RP –
RP –
P –
I also have any of these players I could keep in place of the ones above.
1B – Singleton ($11)
2B – Alcantara ($15)
SS – Russell ($13)
SP – Bailey($21), A. Sanchez($26)
@dude: I’d take Wong
Good news is, I was reading Avisail’s write-up in incognito mode. Bad news is, my work screen got rerouted to the conference room. Fug! Moving on, I’m looking at some other rankings, and is he even getting drafted top 18-20 rounds? What a steal! But is that fo-serious? Obviously, we can wait a bit on him, but how early are you takin this smokeshow to make sure you don’t miss the boat?
@Nico: Ha… I think I have him ranked around 125 overall, that’s where I’d draft him
Grey,
I like where your at with Castillo & Tames. I’m really gun shy of on one of my favs, Bruce (flipping killed me last year) hopefully he drops way down this year. Thoughts on these keepers, Yahoo 12 Team 6×6 OPS & Holds. Players are drafted in the same round as the previous year and waiver adds count for the latest rounds.
I’m 95% on these 4 and then its a mess from there;
Round & Player
3-Stanton
8-Donaldson
24-Castillo
25-Pederson
And the rest of the options
1-Harper (I’ve got Stanton in the 3rd so it’d be Stanton and Harper 1&3)
5-Marte
6-Heyward
11-Moss
12-Gray
13-Lester
23-JD Martinez
@Teddy Heater: What’s your question?
@Grey: Which 2 would you choose from the lower options?
Ah… Lester, Harper
@Grey: Nice, Preesh!
No problem, BFF!
@Grey: HA! I was looking into friendship bracelets or charms, the $.50 cent vending machine would only spit out sticky hands and bouncey balls.
I’ll take whatever from you, homey!
@Teddy Heater: You should keep Lester with the rest you already picked.
Hey Grey! I’m loving the posts so far. Can’t wait to start doing 900 mock drafts in the next few weeks. Fantasy baseball is back and its a great thing. Looking at my one keeper league I’m already getting nervous for the draft. I don’t have a pick until the 8th round. My 5 keepers are Johnny Cueto 10th round, Brian Dozier 12th round, Manny Machado 13th round, Yasiel Puig 21st round, and Mookie Betts 23rd round. I’m looking to make moves to acquire some draft picks in the early rounds. An owner that loves Puig wants to offer me Jedd Gyorko (a 15th round keeper and i know you have him as a sleeper) and a few top draft picks. A few reasons I like this is the owner has 12 picks in the first 7 rounds so i can milk him for multiple picks. I can then go out and ship Dozier for more early round picks and I’ll have Gyorko and Betts playing 2nd. What are your thoughts?
@henry rowengartner: Ha… I’d want Puig
@Grey: I only have this year and next left with Puig then he goes back into the player pool unless I trade him. Thats why I asked
Couple of thoughts. First, not a fan of .240 or less 20ish rank outfielders. The batting average hit on roto is a lot bigger than folks tend to account for.
Second, Matt Holiday is on my stay-the-freak-away from list. In his first half last year he showed a really degraded approach with low BA and only six home runs. I think this is year he is a mid round pick who lays a 12 HR/.250 egg right in your Cheerios.
@Blue: Agreed on Holliday
Grey!
Love your columns and rankings… i have a quick roster ? for you…
I know the right decision but just want some backup!
In a 20 team keeper league… 30 man rosters no bench spots everyone plays, 15 keepers. this is the kind of league where Kenny Vargas is a 2nd round pick.. I won the league last year by trading away all of my draft picks for older players.
Now someone is offering Miggy for Felix/Kris Bryant/Yelich… am i crazy to say no based on bryant potential?
@John Rice: I’d want Miggy
The doctors still don’t think I’m ready to get the stitches removed from the second poop hole that Bruce carved out of my back side. Now scientifically named the brucely hole. Don’t Google that, it’s NSFW. Yet I still want to own him everywhere.
@J-FOH: Ha! The Brucely Hole should have a Wikipedia page
@Grey: Its just pics of men and 4 girls with really uncomfortable looks on their faces
I think Wikipedia might’ve redirected you
@Grey: doh, its the whoopsy hole
Haha
Great read again. What side would you take in this deal.
Pence,Volgelsond,Motte Pedroia,Wily Peralta And Chisenhall for Neil Walker Gyorko Kyle Zimmer Salazar and Todd fraizer.
@Sherwood Hayes: Thanks! Gyorko side
@Grey:
Thanks again.Who would be the top 5 players in this deal. In order please.
Huh?
@Grey: Sorry, lets do that agin, my new born has me on a schedule that is not good for typing. Who would you rank 1-5 out of, Todd Fraizer, Pence, Gyorko, Pedroia.Wily Peralta,Salazar,Neil Walker Kyle Zimmer.
And a side note, is there 2-3 rp that you think will be closeing for there respected teams by seasons end.??
Thank you again All and mighty powerful grey.
You need your own strobe lights and smoke machine when walking into a room.
Haha…. Pence, Frazier, Gyorko, Salazar, Walker, thereabouts… I’ll go over RPs… Maybe Miller, Mejia, if you mean guys that might not be closers that will be
@Grey: Thank you sir you are very kind.
No problem
@Grey: One more trade, before I get hit with stalker charges. My Gary Sanchez and a 3rd( first year players) for his Kazmir
Sounds fine, take Kazmir
Springer sure is a riddle wrapped in an enigma. To the casual observer, you would think he strikes out because he swings out of the zone so often. Surprisingly, not true at all. Last year Springer swung outside of the zone only 24.1% of the time, 6% below the league average. Interestingly enough, he swung at pitches in the zone well above the the league average (73% v 63%). This is basically what you like to see, swinging at strikes and laying off the balls. However, he also makes horrible contact. So while he is swinging at the right pitches, he still isn’t making contact with them. His overall contact% of 61% is well below the league average of 79%. Even more alarming, his SwStr% was almost double the league average (18.2 v 9.4). That is straight up awful. The silver lining here is that he already has a good understanding of the zone and just needs to adjust within the zone. The bad part is that contact% stabilizes pretty quickly so this just might be who he is .
Nice breakdown
Agree w/ Grey, great breakdown!
Damn you and your breakdown!!! I am so Hot on Springer!!!! I have to keep 3 and I’m taking Abreu, Arenado, Gomez, but I have Springer, Wong, Dickerson, Yelich, Polanco, Betts just sitting there wanting to be kept!
Lots of nice choices but I’d go with those three you are keeping
Dickersons numbers are so much more juicer than Arenados????
Corey Dickerson 136/436 74 24 76 8 .312
Nolan Arenado 124/432 58 18 61 2 .287
BUT I want this guy on my team….
Grégory Polanco 65/277 50 7 33 14 .235, figuring on him putting it together….
Yeah, wouldn’t mind him either
@bossmanjunior333:
You should be hired. That was Magoo good.
Who are you people? I just pick dudes I like and never win. HA!
I would flip Myers and Blackmon… but thats why I do me and you do you. Welcome back, January Grey.
Thanks!
Great reading as always Grey, you’re the best at this.
Looking for keeper advice, 13 team 5×5 mixed with a 3 year keeper limit, cost is round picked in last year’s draft, undrafted players count as 20th rounders, or 19th/20th for two of them, and so on. My best choices:
No brainers (to me):
Bautista 3rd round
Rizzo 5th
Kluber 22nd
Leaning:
Ozuna 25th
Danny Santana undrafted/20th
Other possibilities:
Yan Gomes undrafted/20th
Alcides Escobar 8th
JD Martinez undrafted/20th
Cain 28th
Closers — Rondon and/or Britton undrafted/20th
It’s worth noting that in this draft all the closers, most years, get picked between rounds 8-12, so the closers may represent the best value if there’s a chance they can keep their jobs this year.
Thanks in advance!
Thanks! Sounds right
Will the War Room return for 2015?
Yes
@Corey: Mine Crashed on draft day last year.
@Natty Boh:it only crashed on me in one draft (out of many, including mocks)
I love this shit. I may move to England. Obscure major league 2 ref… and want to repay you but cash is boring. I have a certain set of skills. They are unique. Here’s some things i can offer in no particular order of competency:
1) Help you remodel your bathroom
2) Wingman you at a bar
3) Provide Nutritional advice, a meal plan
4) Build you a moderately aggressive investment portfolio
5) Recommend a good red wine
6) Teach you deep stack no limit holdem poker strategy
From there it gets a little iffy, in fact all of the above is a little iffy. Keep up the good work, lawd king perfect Grey!
Let’s start from 6 and work backwards
This is my roster. I was offered Daniel Murphy for Trumbo in dynasty, do the deal?
C – Gattis, Sal Perez
1B – Goldy, Butler, Lind
2B – Dozier, Howie
SS – Hanley, Semien
3B – Bryant, Wright
OF – Arica, gardner, Byrd, Revere, Trumbo, Stubbs, Cargo
We do 2C, 5 OF, MI, CI, 1 Util
Thank you
Hold
Thanks for the quick feedback!
No problem
I’m having a really difficult time NOT taking outfielders in four out of the first six rounds of draft sims
It’s important to remember that OF is deep and all, but I find that the best player available in the early rounds is an OF.
Rest of your team is going to be a mess
@Grey: There is always a couple top 20 OF that comes out of nowhere on the waiver wire. (see Blackmon, Dickerson, Revere, Brantley (if someone dropped him early)… hell even Denard Span had some pretty good value from the wire last year) I wouldn’t grab a 4th OF all that early just because of the difference between the 10th and 20th OF vs the 5th and 10th 2B/SS… marginal value > actual value.
Sh*t… did I just make an argument for fantasy WAR as a fantasy stat? Damn it.
And yes, that was a parenthesis inside of an already parenthesis’d side note up there. If my English Professors could see me now…
In OBP league, Marte or Yelich?
Why you no love Yelich like Marte?
Peeps seem to be projecting Pirates offense to be slightly better than Marlins. But Pirates offense looks doodier than last year. Marlins are trending upward. What gives?
They’re in the same tier
happy thursday.
I have a question regarding my keeper leagues.
as i read the rankings i wonder who i should keep in each league. what is your opinion?> is it better to get the better value by keeping a guy you have in your top 40 that, in my league, i can keep for a last round pick (27th round)
or,
is it better to keep a guy in your top 20 (reading the blurb that you actually like) but costs me a 16th.
so for example in one league, i can keep avisail for 27th (and then 24, 21, 18, etc year after year)…or I can keep brantley at 18 this year (15, 12, 9, etC). it seems like in this example, the return on a 27th rounder like avisail, who you would consider taking around 125 overall (like 12th round) COULD be better than the return on a 16th rounder like brantley that we would prob only take in the 4th-5th rounds?
i know its case by case, but in this example who would you keep? and do you have a general strategy that i can apply to my other keeper decisions on keeping guys you really seem to like if they are cheaper over potentially better players but not quite as cheap of a discount? i.e. brantley will PROBABLY be better than avisail but he doesnt come as cheap
i know i really went on and on, but i appreciate your input.
thanks
Depends on each situation… Better to keep higher ranked guy, most times
Oh, and I’d keep Brantley there
@Grey: awesome! thank you for the quick response. i really appreciate you taking the time to do all this.
how the eff you keep providing this stuff for free is beyond me (outside of cocktail donations and such). do you ever envision this becoming a paid service? Id still signup for that man.
No problem… Nah, won’t be paid
Hey Grey, love the site, was wondering if I could get your advice on a trade in a 16 team dynasty 5×5. The deal would be my Waino, Mesoraco and Owings for his Ian Desmond and Matt Latos. Here is my roster:
C Mesoraco, McCann
1B Votto Pedro Alvarez
2b pedroia, Phillips, Zobrist
3B A Ram and Pedro
SS Zobrist and Owings
OF Cutch, Joey Bats and Avisail Garcia
P- Kershaw, Waino, Cobb, Wood, Paxton, Bentences, Melancon, Cody Allen
I could really use Desmond and am cringing at Wainos elbow but I don’t know if Latos elbow is any better. Thanks!
Thanks! Do it
5×5 roto dynasty league — all players kept indefinitely:
I get Ian Desmond, give up Cueto and Huston Street
I’m terrible at SS (Jhonny/Asdrubal) and have SP to spare, but still want a good value
What say you, Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario?
Sounds good
Profar throwing from 60’…currently looking like the Rangers second best pitching option…
@Wake Up:
Functional running?
@GhostTownSteve: yeah…exactly
HA!
@Grey: meant to say that the Elton song riff this morning…HaHa Dix!
Haha Dix!
@Wake Up: No longer fond of your YoGa pants?
@Big Magoo: Never liked him…never give these up!
dying
@Carnac: @Carnac: thanks
Debating on keeping OF Alex Gordon at 17$
OBP, SLG % are both categories with the other standard 5 cats applying…
2 UTIL spots can be used
The good:
1)He’s consistent, rarely gets hurt, and contributes both power and speed that we all love.
2)He has a good pedigree so I feel I can’t completely rule out a career year where he bats .300, 25+hr and 20 stl.
3)He takes walks, which helps in my OBP league.
The bad:
1) The Royals lineup does not help his counting stats.
2)He plays crazy wildman defense(see Bryce H) which leads to nagging injuries that he plays thru but may hinder him at the plate.
3)The home ballpark is not conducive for big stats.
My other OF are
Joey Bats 36$
Dickerson 6$
CCarter 6$
Avisail 6$
Pollock 6$
DStubbs6$ (I’m holding on to him hoping Blackman gets traded).
I am leaning toward dropping him before my draft(got a few weeks to decide) but thought I would run it by you guys. Thanks.
No idea what your other options are or anything about your league
I think Calhoun or Yelich should be owned by everyone everywhere, not both on the same team but one or the other. Rock solid floor with a little room for upside. I loving that boring ass shizz.
Yeah, like Aoki last year
@Grey: do you kiss your mother with that mouth? Aoki was based on what prior leadoff men did on the Royals ie Alex Gordon. The Royals collectively decided to not hit with him at the top of the order. Did not see that HR total dropping to 1! 1 god damn homerun, who does that after averaging 9 a year over the last two years. OBP was at his norm and actually not that different from Gordons when he led off and averaged 94 runs a year. aoki was a lesson in not relying on a batting order to get you your stats. Unless its anyone but the Royals.
I don’t kiss my mother, gross!
@Grey: nice way to avoid the numbers I thru out. Fine, then do you kiss your cougar with that mouth?
What numbers? 1 home run? Yeah, surprising
@Grey: what the Royals did with an almost identical OPS lead off man. God they sucked. They sucked like every episode of storage wars once hester left, they sucked like cutthroat kitchen, they sucked like a…actually I’ll stop there, people read this at work.
Gordon and Aoki aren’t similar…
@Grey: similar OBP, Aoki has more speed, but Gordon has more XBH, fair enough though, but still, 80+ runs and 7-8 homeruns wasn’t crazy talk.
Aoki could easily get those numbers this year… They’re not easy numbers to enjoy in most mixed leagues
@Grey: 5 OF league its nice for those of us that like slow and steady wins the race.
and yeah I could totally see that, Bochy is like the turd whisperer, he can take a certifiable piece of crap and turn it into gold.
Ha, yup
Just for fun, name 2 players out of 21-40 that you could see surprising and finish in the top 10… I have a few keeper options in this range who I’m HOPING will finish better but realize they are ranked appropriately to start the season
Springer, Heyward
@Grey: damn. Was hoping you were going to say Soler. Watching Soler hit makes my pants feel funny. ;-) ha.
@scott steelers: between soler, puig and Abreu as keepers I think I’m going with Deffacating Defectors.
Ha
Standard head to head 10 man league. 3 keepers out of Ian desmond, Rendon, Donaldson, Springer, Dickerson.
Not Springer, Dickerson
Standard head to head 10 man league. 3 keepers out of Rendon, Donaldson, Springer, Dickerson.
I feel like I need to keep Rendon, Donaldson but can’t really decide between the other two
What you guys think?
Dickerson
Grey, need to keep 7 players. Either 4 position 3 pitchers or vice versa. Looking at my team below who would you decide on…
Posey, Buster(1B,C) SF
Pujols, Albert(1B) LAA
Kipnis, Jason(2B) CLE
Rendon, Anthony(2B,3B) WAS
Desmond, Ian(SS) WAS
Gordon, Alex(OF) KC
Martinez, J.D.(OF) DET
Upton, Justin(OF) SD
Yelich, Christian(OF) MIA
Craig, Allen(1B,OF) BOS
Rizzo, Anthony(1B) CHC
Alvarez, Pedro(3B) PIT
Santana, Danny(OF,SS) MIN
Cabrera, Melky(OF) CHW
Ozuna, Marcell(OF) MIA
Active Pitchers
Arrieta, Jake(SP) CHC
Hamels, Cole(SP) PHI
Hughes, Phil(SP) MIN
Scherzer, Max(SP) WAS
Teheran, Julio(SP) ATL
Cishek, Steve(RP) MIA
Rodriguez, Francisco(RP) MIL
Latos, Mat(SP) MIA
Miller, Shelby(SP) ATL
Santana, Ervin(SP) MIN
Rizzo, Rendon, Desmond, Upton, Scherzer, Arrieta, Hamels
Hey Grey,
Great analysis! I especially like your aggressive ranking of Jason Heyward. I’ve seen him ranked a lot lower on other sites this season, which I think is a mistake. I’m targeting him in my drafts this season.
In a keeper league, which of these starting pitchers, if any, would you be willing to accept in trade for Neil Walker?
Chris Archer
Andrew Cashner
Gio Gonzalez
Jake Odorizzi
Wily Peralta
Taijuan Walker
Thanks! Gio
Grey….LOVE your work, avid reader and HUGE fan.
Deep 16 team league that includes BB and OPS. We keep 6 total and based on their low keeper $ amounts I am planning to keep Wong, Joc Pederson, Alex Wood. Trying to decide on the rest, help me pick the other 3…..
Option 1
Miggy, Trumbo, Wil Myers
Option 2
E2, Cano, (Gattis or Cuddyer)
Option 3
E2, Trumbo, (Wil Myers or Kipnis or Strasburg or Hamels)
Thanks! Is E2 really E5? Option 2 with Gattis
@Grey: brutus.
If you do acquire Arenado/Dickerson on most of your teams, will you bench them for road games for other options, or just roll with the punches away from Coors?
I’m planning on targeting both this year, as well as Morneau to a lesser extent, but mostly play H2H and am wondering whether it’s necessary to have backups for series/weeks they’re away from Coors? That duo/trio could potentially win weeks on their own when the Rockies are at home, but could kill any chance of competing when on the road.
Roll with punches
Thanks!!!
No problem
I think I’ve been reading Razzball for four+ years now. Today is the first time I’ve noticed the forums.
Ha
@Baezaworldseries: judging from the amount of people in those, you are probably like in the above 80 percentile.
News just popped up on my phone and it says Jesus Montero lost 40 pounds. In what universe is that news I want to know. F**k the 24 hour news cycle in the neck.
@J-FOH:
Would be news if he lost them in a meat grinder or a chipper shredder.
@GhostTownSteve: right?! or had lipo
Was the title of the Jesus article, Body of Christ gets smaller?
@Grey: surprisingly it was Mitsubishi makes its SUV smaller
Ha… The Montero now less roomy!
Or takes up less roomy!
@Grey: now with a dashboard jesus option
“Hello, mechanic, I meant to put it in cruise control and now it keeps giving me communion.”
@J-FOH: ‘Best shape of my career’ alert.
Predicting breakouts
Just for fun I ran a list of 15 “break out” players last year and compared a composite “curated” set of rankings against NFBC ADP to see which was more likely to “spot” the break out.
The answer is neither of course, but the finding is that they were remarkably similar. The average difference between original rank and final value for the curated picks was 178.3. For ADP it was 194.6.
Interestingly there was really only about an 8% difference between the ADP and the curated original rankings. Interesting how little these experts were able to deviate from established ADP. Or vice versa I suppose.
I guess my point here is that ADP takes a lot of flack in general as a poor guide to drafting, but it appears to be about as good as a well known curated list. It kind of confirms my thinking that’s evolved over the last 5 years: player projections are secondary to strategic objectives when it comes to drafting. The former must inform the latter, of course.
Here are the players I looked at:
Dee Gordon
Garrett Richards
Tyson Ross
Corey Dickerson
Anthony Rendon
Todd Frazier
Michael Brantley
Corey Kluber
Victor Martinez
Chris Carter
Brian Dozier
Jon Lester
Nelson Cruz
Kyle Seager
Jose Abreu
@GhostTownSteve:
oh yeah…small sample size
@GhostTownSteve:
very small in fact. I shouldn’t even say this confirms anything. Just an interesting little data tidbit.
@GhostTownSteve: damn, making me think every day, you are like our soduku
If you’re saying you need to draft strategically for your team vs. just what players might do according to projections, I agree… Honestly, not 100% sure what you mean though… Brain fart, sorry
@Grey:
I don’t know what I’m saying either. I suppose what I’m saying is hinted at by this but by no means confirmed. Something along the lines of lord give me the strength to change what I can and accept what I cannot.
Rankings and projections are such a crap shoot so as to be a crap shoot, though like craps lend an illusion of control. Where as strategic and tactical roster construction considerations are within the realm of control and that is where the edge minus luck really lies.
Haha…. That craps crap actually made sense! Now we’re speaking the same language! Speaking of which, was in Vegas this past weekend… I put money on one team to win the World Series and they’re 60 to 1 odds, can you guess?
@Grey:
Mariners?
Nah, done with them
Oh, and it’s not the A’s
@Grey: Astros?
Nah
@Grey: Indians?
They were 20 to 1 odds and Rudy put money on them (well, I did for Rudy)
@Grey:
Padres?
Nah, I think they were around 15 to 1… BTW, the Cubs were 10 to 1!
@Grey:
No idea, Albright. My fantasy analyst watch is on the fritz.
Okay, game’s up… I bet the Reds
@Grey:
I can kind of see it. There’s potential for an everything goes right with them. Votto and Bruce better. Hamilton improves and is electric. Frazier solidifies. Rotation healthy. Bailey bounce back. Mesoroco solid. Interesting flier. I would not have seen it myself but I get it.
@GhostTownSteve: Late to the party…but isn’t ADP a curated mean?
Yeah, that’s what I was thinking, plus 60 to 1 is hard to find…
@GhostTownSteve:
I take curated here to mean the value is assigned by an expert, as in a ranking. Whereas ADP is a measure of the wisdom of a crowd. Drafters are not ranking but drafting and the data is derived from their activity.
In this case I did take a consensus ranking but it was a consensus of only 5 experts so I still consider it “curated”.
@GhostTownSteve: CUBS only get 10-1 and CIN 60?! much better value bet.
@Grey: Toronto
Blue jays were like 12 to 1
@Grey: The smart money ruining it for everyone…
Haha
16 team dynasty league.
I give Chris Tillman
I get Jhonny Peralta
Peralta no great shakes, but otherwise Brad Miller is my starting ss. My pitching pretty decent, given the depth of the league.
Yay or nay
Nay
Grey, I’m interested in your advice on this trade offer. 12 team dynasty. Kemp/Wong for Bruce/Syndergaard.
Kemp side
Ideally you mix enough upside guys with low floors with solid predictable guys but looks like OF is the position I will be taking the most upside risks on. Do you agree?
Depends on the names
@Grey: I mean if I want to take George springer in the 3rd round (42 in the nfbc adp) and Yelich in the 6th (78 adp) I need to land a guy like Adam jones as opposed to Tulo early to limit my downside
In theory it makes sense
@Grey: just like the theory of drafting a safe prince fielder in the first round last year.
Yeah, exactly
I just found my first guy for 2015 that I’m going to own a bunch. Luis Valbuena. Couple things. Of all players who hit at least 45% FBs last year, Valbuena was the only one who failed to hit at least 20 homers and the average was 27.8 homers. Guys who hit between 40% and 45% FBs averaged 20 homers. Between 40% and 35% averaged 18 homers. Wrigley was the 19th toughest place for left handers to hit home runs last year Houston was 9th. Move to the AL with a general uptick of counters. 3rd base and 2nd base eligible. I’m going to give him 70/22/70/.250 with the potential for a crazy breakout beyond there and a current ADP of 400+ i.e. undrafted. That’s your deep league special for today. I’m banking that one.
@GhostTownSteve:
Hit 11 homers in 65 games to end the season. Nasty L/R splits so might lose some time to Dominguez but on the good side of the platoon.
I think he platoons and hits under 12 homers… I will say he won’t be drafted until the 400s, so there’s value that late
@Grey:
I disagree. Been reading the tea leaves on this. Hinch is a straight out SABR gangster. Dominguez had the lowest WAR of any qualified MLB 3rd baseman last year. His OBP was .256 overall and his .282 v LHP was lower than Valbuena’s .309. Dominguez has led the majors in error among 3rd basemen the last two years and is a net negative career UZR where as Valbuena has been average to slightly above in his career. And there’s a lot of negative chatter coming out of the Houston camp about Dominguez.
Outside of deep leagues, I don’t think it’s gonna matter, so I’ll say we’ll see… I will say everything you’re saying on Hinch and Valbuena and Dominguez makes sense…
@Grey:
I’m going to say mixed league relevant by year end at 2B. Only two 2B hit 20 homers last year. He could give you a Neil Walker-ish year (ADP 130) minus some BA.
But we will see. These are the guys that we want to find when they pan out. Large profit.
Funny you’re on this band wagon a bit as well, GTS. I don’t think he clears 20 but has a chance at 18. He’s in my honorable mentions for my 2B deep league thoughts (whenever that post comes out). If he lands in the right LU spot, his RBI/Run totals could push him up quite a bit at 2B.
@Sky:
I’m thinking 20 based on second half splits and the park change. It’s only 4 more than he hit last year. Feels like it’s in the realm.
@GTS and @Sky: Valbuena is the kind of guy that seems like a hidden gem now that returns $8 on his $2 investment, but it’s the guys like Trumbo going for $12 that return $27 that make the difference in the end…
Yeah, I’m just talking about my future Deep League Thoughts post. In RCL’s, he’s a weekly pickup if he gets to face some bad righties at home in Houston or an injury fill-in; nothing more, really. He’s on my radar for my keeper I’ve mentioned and any other deep leagues I’m associated with.
Yeah, I agree with that
@Sky:
I’m sticking my neck out on him a bit more based on the ability to hit fly balls. 4th highest rate in MLB among qualifiers last year. A small uptick in HR/FB because of the park adjustment would push him over 20 because of that insane rate. He hit a career high in FB and maintained a 20% LD rate. There’s whispers of ye olde “approach change.” I dunno….spider sense.
I believe in the approach change but I think it started in 2013 (44.8% FB rate then, would’ve been 7th best in baseball if he met the minimums). Even then, he wasn’t a 20 HR pace kind of guy. I’m mashing his last two years together (fair or not, I see them as the same trend; we may disagree here) but I see a guy who would need to hit 211 FBs in 2015 to keep all his current underlying stats and hit 20. I think too many ABs/games would have to be pencilled in for him to reach that plateau since he is still a platoon guy. Either that or his HR/FB% profile would have to leap from the 9.49% he’s sported since 2013 to 11.5%. Obviously it’s all possible but I still think the stats say he’s more likely to maintain rather than gain. What is the o/u bet on Valbuena HRs? Grey has to shave his ‘stache if it goes over 19.5? I say yes.
Deal! Or even of he gets anything-point-five… I’d like to see that…
Ha! 2.5 WAR is very plausible.
I think we’re seeing who he is, personally. The park change is nice but I think he’s a 14 to 16 kind of guy. That’s why I mark the 18. 20 is always within range but I think we’re talking best case scenario. Given the state of 2B, I’d take the 16 and .250 average if I can get it.
BTW, I ranked 425 guys total, and the top hitter that I didn’t rank with the most AB potential according to Steamer? Dioner Navarro, 2nd is Valbuena
Bet you can’t guess number three… He’s a 3rd baseman too
@Grey: Uribe?
I ranked him
@Grey: damnit, I was going to write Turner first and then changed it . FMBC
Ha
@Sky: this conversation touched off my sixth sense, the same as when he got traded *farts* oh, I just had gas.
Much like when people think babies are smiling, the times J-FOH is close to nirvana just means he’s close to going to the men’s room.
@Sky: yeah, I was always more an Alice in Chains guy anyway
@GhostTownSteve: What is it about 100 yards to the Crawford Boxes?
Valbuena is a guy I could see coming really handy in a NFBC league, but I don’t see him as a starter
@Grey: if GTS is right then he will be called Valbueno!
@J-FOH: SAME
@Wake Up: our timing was the exact same. Are you scratching your ass right now?
@J-FOH: No! But the dog is smelling my fingers…
@Wake Up: mine is sniffing my toes. Are you New Zealand with SteveNZ?
@GhostTownSteve: Buena…good sir…buena!
i’m thinking about trading for mookie betts, but should i be concerned at all about his playing time in that crowded OF?
Yup
@Grey: lmao not inspiring me with confidence here grey.
@Harry Hardenberg: the poor guy’s been saying this for 6 weeks now…
@Wake Up: I wonder if half our readers are from Boston area
@J-FOH:
i’m not from the boston area
and i’m sorry i havent kept up with every single post this offseason
however, im confident boston will throw victorino in the trash somewhere
@Harry Hardenberg: No offense intended friend.
Having some fun with Boston…not you.
@Harry Hardenberg: don’t know how to do the link thing, so here you go…
9. Mookie Betts – I want Mookie’s PR person. Literally every day for the last two months at least once a day someone asked what I thought of Betts for this year. Don’t look around, you probably asked me at one point. I wonder if it has something to do with his name. It’s just such a baseball-sounding name. Have you ever met a none baseball-playing Mookie? I continued to tell them, Betts doesn’t have a job. Pedroia’s at 2nd base and the outfield is Hanley, Victorino and Rusney. Then John Farrell called me a liar and went on record saying Betts is his leadoff hitter. Where’s he playing? *shrugs* I have no idea. It’s gotta mean Victorino is a bench bat, and maybe Rusney and Betts will sit occasionally to get Victorino into the lineup. I could see anywhere from a top 5 2nd baseman season for Mookie to a platoon player that the Sawx decide to demote to the minors so he can get everyday at-bats. Maybe Victorino or Pedroia will get injured to make this clearer, but right now drafting Betts will be a huge gamble. Pun point! 2015 Projections: 81/11/41/.297/20
@Wake Up: I wonder if cram changes his handle to “cram your betts question up your cram hole?”
@Harry Hardenberg: you woud’ve only needed to keep up with about half of all posts to know about the mookie with no job thing.
@J-FOH: Only if they are using the audio-blog app…I keed, I keed…oh, like they can read this anyway…
@Wake Up: Bostonians can’t read…they just react
love it.
Grey/anyone – I have Chris Davis, and can keep him this year and next in the 18th round of a 12-teamer w/ deep squads. Should I trade him for Addison Russell, who can be kept this year and the next 3 years in the 30th round? is that worth the temporary hit I would take? my other keepers suck
Hold Davis
garza at 7.1 million (out of 100 budget for just this year) or aybar for 8.5 for each of next 2 years? OPS/holds 6×6. Pitching without Garza would be very weak but also has F-Her as anchor. Frazier/melky/cain sugar/zobrist head the offense.
Aybar
Just traded george springer for soler and joc pederson? Springer is $1 and will need a contract after this year while soler and Pederson are still just minors league. Was I crazy to make this trade??
Sounds solid
@Mets8484:
I like Soler a lot. I think you did real well with that trade.
@GhostTownSteve:
Thanks!
Oh, and I just got the huge gamble part…Nice!
This just in, Verlander feels better than he has in 3 or 4 years. Well that changes everything, top of my draft board now
@J-FOH: The Upton effect.
@SteveNZ: sounds scary….and very hollywood
I’m sitting at a parents thingy at kids school and one of the moms has man hands!
@J-FOH: I eat my peas one at a time, so what?
@nick the dick: I’m finally gonna make some changes!
@J-FOH: Real question is did you see any mom jeans
@nick the dick: one mom jeans . There are literally only two whites mom’s in the class.
@J-FOH: one is all you need, like a cock push-up
@nick the dick: nice return of a proper avi
@J-FOH: I know not what a proper avi means. I’m guessing your mean my avatar (ava?) Yeah went with the self portrait. Find it hard to believe you didn’t like a cup of Ice Tea with some Ice Cubes in it though.
@nick the dick: I always picture you shirtless with a bow tie
@J-FOH: holding a tray of hot dogs?
@nick the dick: but of course
Ha!
No inflation or picks given up. Normal 12 team keeper league with OBP instead of AvG
keep 3:
Lucroy
Soler
Hanley Ramirez
Michael Brantley
Frazier