Today, we go over the top 40 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball. Yesterday, we went over the top 20 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball. It will be a date which will live in…Well, it won’t live in infamy, so what’s the opposite of that? Famy? It will live in unfamy? That’s just ridiculous. What are you, the 7-Up guy? By the time you get to these outfielders, I’m sure you’ve drafted at least one outfielder. If you haven’t, wake from your slumber, Rip Van Schmucko, your draft is slipping away from you. There’s a lot of interesting names in this top 40. Jason Heyward is an interesting name. It was even more interesting when it was Jason “Future Superstar” Heyward. All of the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings are there. If you right click that and open it in a new tab, your car will get a free oil change (it won’t). Without further delay (there really wasn’t much delay, I mean, that was a short intro compared to most)… Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball:
21. Jason Heyward – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Calhoun. I called this tier, “Give me some lovin’!” Here’s what I said this offseason, “The Braves had the 5th best ERA last year in the major leagues. That’s with a down year by Mike Minor, and injuries to Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen. Their runs scored were second to last in the majors. Only the Padres’ offense was worse. So, naturally, they trade away Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins, who had a sub-5 K/9 in High-A last year. Oh…*pounds out a chicken cutlet, fills it with spinach and ricotta cheese, rolls it up, ties it with twine, bakes it on 450 for 18-22 minutes, pulls it out and breathes in the aroma* …kay. That’s the Chicken Florentine pause. Practiced by many, only able to be pulled off by a few. I rarely pull out the Chicken Florentine pause, but trading a top hitting prospect that is only 25 years old, when your team is hurting for offense, is straight up baffling with a pickleback. Are the Braves trying to bring the entire organization down to Fredi’s level of intelligence? Did Fredi tell management that they had too many top of the order hitters (they have none) and they needed another arm (they don’t)? Are the Braves trying to get featured in the third sequel to Major League? I got questions, y’all! From a fantasy perspective, Heyward’s value goes up simply because the Cardinals are a better offensive team. Like someone doing yoga, Heyward will now be surrounded by Matts — Carpenter and Holliday. What will Heyward produce? Go ask the Sphinx. One year he looks like a 30-homer hitter, another year he looks like a middle infielder with 20 steal speed. He could be anywhere from a 15-homer guy to a 30-homer guy. The 20 steals, now in two of five seasons, look possible, until you see he has a year of only 2 steals. His .271 average last year is around his career average (.262), so that seems repeatable, until you see his .227 average in 2011. At some point, he could have a 30-homer, 20-steal top 20 fantasy season, but to say it’s definitely coming is you lying to yourself. You already lie to yourself in other areas of your life, let’s not start with Heyward too.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 91/20/75/.274/15
22. Wil Myers – This offseason, I said, “It’s beginning to feel like it’s not an offseason without a trade of Wil Myers. In three short years, he’s gone from the Royals to the Rays and now on to the Padres. Only place he can go from the Padres is the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. They would hope Myers could carry them against their most hated rivals, the Yakuza Spits. The Miller Lite-inspired commercials between the Spits and Swallows in Japan are a real crack up. Tastes great!…Spit it out!…Tastes great!…Spit it out! Before Myers is pushing daisies in the NPB, he’ll bide his time in San Diego and try to right this rapidly sinking prospect boat. “Ice-cold sophomore year right ahead!” In all for realliness, I was planning on jumping back in the Myers sinking ship prior to this trade, and I don’t think it kills his value. Would I prefer he went to Coors? Yeah, well, dur. I also don’t think a 24-year-old former top prospect is washed up just because he had one bad year after fracturing his wrist. Takes time to bounce back from that type of injury and one thing we have is time. Well, you with the oxygen mask and cigarette might have less time. In a few years, we’re going to look back at Myers’s 2014 as it should be viewed now, a blip. I’m about as sure of that as Kilimanjaro rises like Olympus above the Serengeti. Or as sure of it that I’m listening to too much Toto’s Africa. Sure, Petco won’t do him any favors, but if his wrist is at hundred percent there shouldn’t be any problems getting at least 20 homers. Shoot, he could hit 10 homers in just his road games in Coors and Arizona.” And that’s me copying and pasting me! 2015 Projections: 61/20/72/.277/8
23. Jay Bruce – I still have a hard time sitting down after the screwing that Bruce gave me last year. Gotchies worn after eating Olestra have nothing on the gotchies I wore while owning Bruce last year. Last year, on our Player Rater, Bruce was the 46th best outfielder. So, in his worst season, he was still relevant. I point that out to say I know it was a struggle to own him last year, but to also say he’s a lot more reliable than the impression you got. Crap, now I want to listen to that one Mighty Mighty Bosstones song for an hour straight. Have you ever been close to tragedy? Yes, I owned Bruce last year! Close to folks who have? Not close, I was the one who owned him! Never had to knock on wood, but I would’ve last year if I thought it would’ve helped Bruce! Okay, I need to shuffle my iTunes. Bruce’s strikeouts have been moving in the wrong direction since he entered the league. He’s swinging at too many balls outside the strike zone and not swinging at balls inside enough. He might want to go to Brian McCann’s eye doctor. But, even with these scary trends, he was also unlucky last year and should’ve hit closer to .240 (instead of .217). I don’t think we’re going to see a top 10 outfielder as he was hinting at with his repeated 30+ HRs, 7-ish steals, but he should bounce back from last year’s abomination. At least that’s the impression that I get! 2015 Projections: 77/27/89/.235/9
24. Marcell Ozuna – You haven’t reached J.D. Martinez yet, unless you skipped ahead, in which case we’re no longer friends, but Martinez and Marcell were essentially the same last year. Martinez hit for a much better average and stole a few more bases, but more or less, here or there, cliche or cliche, they were the same. So, why am I up on one and down on another in a non-sexual way? Great question, clunky set-up sentence! Comes down to their track records in the minors and age. Marcell will be three years younger than Martinez and Marcell hit 23 and 24 homers in back-to-back minor league seasons. Marcell looks like someone who can grow into 30-homer power (and maybe a .250 average) whereas Martinez looks like someone who could grow into a utility player. In other words, OZUNA EAT YOUR CHILDREN. OZUNA TALKING TO COWS. OZUNA LIKE VEAL. 2015 Projections: 71/27/83/.261/5
25. Christian Yelich – Last year, Yelich did a lot. He hit 9 homers, stole 21 bases, hit .284, went to his Senior Prom, told his mom he didn’t want to go to college because he wanted to play in the majors full-time, moved out of his family home and balanced a checkbook. This next year will be just as challenging as he has his heart broken for the first time. Sad songs say so much, so turn them on, Yelich. 2015 Projections: 82/14/61/.288/22
26. Jorge Soler – I already gave you my Jorge Soler fantasy. I wrote it while dog fighting my right and left hand shadow puppets. 2015 Projections: 73/25/81/.278/5
27. Kole Calhoun – I was very close to dropping Calhoun into the next tier, and saying unequivocally that I was not drafting him. Instead, I took the chicken way out and put him in a tier of guys I would draft, but in a place where I likely won’t have a chance to draft Calhoun. By this point in the tier, I’ll probably already have drafted a second outfielder and won’t need Calhoun. It’s weird which guys the fantasy community decides to boost up. Okay, not weird like a third nipple. For some odd reason, everyone is ranking Calhoun really high even though he doesn’t have huge power, speed or average. He’s kinda Jayson Werth-ish, which is not *pinkie to mouth* Werth-less. There’s value in that, for sure, and that’s why I ranked him here, but it’s not exactly exciting. If he hits 22 homers and steals 10 bases, which is being optimistic, that’s less than a homer a week and a steal every two weeks. Sounds okay in the big picture, but when you’re living through a year when a guy hits 3 homers and steals 2 bases in a month, you kinda want to pull your hair out. 2015 Projections: 98/22/53/.269/10
28. Matt Holliday – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Martinez. I call this tier, “You drafted two OFs already, maybe even three, how about you chill now for a few?” I’m not drafting guys in this tier for one reason or another. The reason is probably due to age and overall decline, but I…DECLINE!!! to label them like that. Sorry, I let my 12-year-old nephew write the last sentence and he said multiple exclamation marks and caps was a good way to reach a younger generation. DUR!!! Him again. As for Holliday, look at these last four years: 22 HRs and 2 SBs; 27 HRs and 4 SBs, 22 HRs and 6 SBs; 20 HRs and 4 SBs. Pretty remarkably consistent, right? Okay, look at his line drive rate: 20.6%, 18.9%, 20.8% and 16.6%. Oops, last one not so good. His average also dipped last year by twenty-eight points from .300 to .272. That last average also starred in the straight-to-video sequel, Oopsie, Part II, These Aren’t Getting Better. 2015 Projections: 85/20/91/.274/3
29. Charlie Blackmon – If we were to get a repeat of last year, when Blackmon had the tenth best fantasy outfielder’s numbers, I’m ranking him way too low. Brucely, I’m surprised I have him ranked this high. I tried to lower him a lot more. I.e., I tried to keep the Blackmon down. Fun fact! If you were to put Charlie Blackmon into a Young Adult Novel Generator, it spits out: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Last year, he had 19 homers (career high by 13) and 28 steals (career high by 21). That’s not entirely accurate though. Don’t you love when I lie to you and then point it out? It’s not accurate because he never played a full season prior. His career high was six homers and seven steals but that was only in 82 games and he’s only 28 years old. He hit .288 last year and only had a 14.8% strikeout rate. He doesn’t walk much, but he’s not exactly a flapping flounder by the seashore either. If Weiss gets daffy with himself and starts thinking, Blackmon could get platooned, but he shouldn’t have any more of a chance of being platooned than Dickerson. Only thing that really has me reluctant is his lack of a track record. I just don’t see drafting a team with Blackmon, and I’m not subtly implying I have color-blindness. 2015 Projections: 79/15/60/.285/20
30. Hunter Pence – The Gangly Manbird sticks out like a sore thumb in this tier. Actually, he sticks out in every room and/or social situation he’s ever in. He’s the one macawing and changing a light bulb without the use of a ladder, just flapping his wings real slow. He sticks out in this tier because he doesn’t have huge upside and downside. He feels pretty safe. He also feels expensive for his brand of safe. I get it, offense is in the toilet and no one his flushing (a common Lawrence Taylor lament), but 20 HRs, 10 SBs and solid counting stats get you this high in the rankings? I guess. Now hurry up with that light bulb, Gangly Manbird! UPDATE: The Gangly Manbird had his wing clipped and will miss a few weeks of the regular season. No fear, he’s being seen by the best veterinarian. 2015 Projections: 70/17/85/.274/9
31. Alex Gordon – He’s in this tier more because he’s a victim of a lack of more guys like him. Gordon should have his own tier, “Not quite yawnstipating, but if you get aroused after drafting him, you should see a doctor.” For two seasons now, he’s had 20 HRs (+/- 1), 12 SBs (+/- 1) and .266 (+/- .001). Consistency is nothing to scoff at you scoffer! If he had three more homers in his projections, he’d be in the top 20 outfielders and if he had three less homers, he’d be out of the top 40. He’s just sorta…there. 2015 Projections: 84/20/70/.262/10
32. Brett Gardner – Oh, yeah, bee tee dubya, outfield is the one offensive position that is deep. Sorry, I was just reading your mind. Not your your. The other people reading this. I started reading your mind, but you started thinking about having your car fixed and I grew bored. I loved loved lurved Gardner for so many years because he had 15+ HR power and crazy speed. Unfortch, he finally showed that power last year (17 HRs) as he became too old to steal 40+ bases. He’s 31 years old now, and is coming off a 21-steal season. If he reverts to 12-ish homers and those steals, it’s far from glamorous. 2015 Projections: 78/11/49/.257/25
33. J.D. Martinez – Jew Don Martinez had a breakout season last year in much the same vein as Blackmon. What a mighty big vein that is, Blackmon. What!? I also don’t trust Jew Don Martinez. He exceeded his career in everything by a huge amount, and, unlike Blackmon, Martinez was also very fortunate with BABIP (.389). His strikeout rate was 26.3% last year and he could easily hit .250 and fall back into a platoon role. What could’ve been happening in 2014 is Martinez was getting very fortunate, which helped build his confidence and he kept hitting donks. Think that’s anecdotal and silly? Well, ain’t you judgmental! In September, he had a .491 BABIP and hit 6 homers. When you’re hitting at a .491 BABIP clip, you basically could hit a line drive at a fielder and a squirrel jumps in front of the glove and knocks the ball down for a double. With that kind of luck, you get full of yourself and swing at everything, and it works. It’s like you just got a promotion at work and you go to a bar to celebrate. At the bar, you’re talking to the hottest girl in the bar and she’s laughing. What do you do? You take her number and then go hit on 15 more girls with success because you’re in the zone. In August, Martinez had his worst full month for luck and hit .265 with 3 homers. Real world example: You get fired and you go to a bar to drown your sorrows. Five drinks in, you’ve hit on the entire bar and everyone is annoyed of your crap. Finally, the bouncer asks you to leave and everyone applauds your exit. I don’t want to be around when Jew Don gets escorted to the door. 2015 Projections: 69/17/80/.277/7
34. Avisail Garcia – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball. This tier is called, “Sexy sexy hot hot dot com that makes you clear your cookies.” The guys in this tier will either get a sleeper post or already have one or will simply get fawned over by yours truly. Someone fan me, I’m getting hot thinking about the guys in this tier. Seriously, fan me. Oh my God, I can’t cool off. One note about the projections in this tier, they are optimistic. At times, they are downright drug-induced. All I’ll say is if you draft a team you’re going to spend more time with over the six months than your own family, don’t you want players you want that are not just safe? As for Garcia, I already gave you my Avisail Garcia sleeper. I wrote it while making nudie Snapchats. 2015 Projections: 83/18/87/.261/14
35. Khris Davis – Last year, he hit 22 homers, but at times looked like arroz con pollo that had passed through an alpaca’s ass. I.e., his splits give animals the sh*ts. I hate that he hits righties worse than lefties. That’s a recipe for disaster. He does hit monster shots though, and that gives me the goose pimples. Watch him talk to the Hand. Only three homers last year by him were iffy, stadium-helped, bloop blasts. If Davis is going to hit 30+ homers, this is the year. To repeat with addition, this is the year I want to own him. 2015 Projections: 81/28/86/.255/5
36. A.J. Pollock – I already gave you my A.J. Pollock sleeper. I wrote it while wondering how I missed that Knight from The Real World: New Orleans died three months ago. 2015 Projections: 78/14/61/.272/20
37. Leonys Martin – Martin is an easy call for this tier. He already gave top 30 outfielder numbers last year if the Rangers wouldn’t have punted offense and provided better counting stats to my favorite Martin. Look at his numbers 7 HRs, 31 SBs, .274. That’s at 26 years old. If he barely takes a step forward and gets 12 HRs, 35 SBs, he’s a top 15 outfielder and a lucky average away from being top 10. Think Blackmon from last year, which is not to say the black guys that had a problem with you selling “I Can’t Breathe” t-shirts at your local mall kiosk. The highest compliment I can pay Leonys is I was trying to see how I could rank him in the top 20 outfielders without looking like I was batshizz crazy. Say it loud, say it proud, I love Leonys. Or as Key & Peele’s Substitute Teacher would call him, Leon Wise, after calling on D Nice and AA-Ron. 2015 Projections: 77/12/51/.262/31
38. Gregory Polanco – I’m a junkie fiending to draft Polanco in 2015. How I have not written a sleeper post about him yet is egregious, Jackie Chiles. I’m petering around so much it’s appalling because I wanna be marrying Polanco. Folk music puns! Polanco could hit 15 homers, steal 30 bases and why haven’t I drafted him yet. Someone start a draft right now so I can grab him. Thank you. 2015 Projections: 68/14/59/.267/25
39. Oswaldo Arcia – I already gave you my Oswaldo Arcia sleeper. I wrote it while wondering if Corey Hart still wears sunglasses at night. 2015 Projections: 65/27/68/.242/3
40. Lorenzo Cain – I don’t like bandwagoners, no relation to Lindsay Wagner. You’re either with me from the start or there’s no room for you when I’m living high on the hog, digging on swine and dancing like Carlton. Cain…Sugar! has long been a favorite of mine and now he suddenly feels like he’s a favorite of everyone’s after last October. For this reason, I may not get him this year. People may just be more aggressive in drafting him than I or me, depending on grammar rules. This brings me to a side note that is actually related unlike most of my side notes. It seems to me that the mass media gets excited about a player (Cain…Sugar! in this case). Not fantasy ‘perts, this is TV and general sports media. Then after they get excited about a player, the general public gets excited about a player, including some fantasy baseballers. Then fantasy ‘perts, not wanting to disappoint the people that are excited about someone, rank a player much higher than if they were just going on stats. This is usually how players get overrated. There’s little other reason to explain how Mauer is still ranked in the top 100 for some ‘perts. Just because the general public has heard of a guy it doesn’t make him good for fantasy. Unrelated side note, I just realized I might like Cain…Sugar a bit because if you look at his name real fast it looks like Cougar. Do what you will with that info. 2015 Projections: 74/8/77/.274/23
