Last year, Avisail Garcia hit seven homers and stole four bases.  Whoopie dee do da, who cares?!  Moving on!  I got a mani-pedi in fifteen minutes, got no time for you!  Oh, wait, that was in only 46 games because he was injured.  ncjakw– Sorry, my drool was hitting the keyboard.  At least I think that’s my drool.  Let me taste it.  Salty…  Ew, gross!  Get your mind out of the gutter!  It’s my drool, I just ate a Bavarian pretzel!  Avisail is so good he made the team without putting on a uniform, went nuts and rode a unicorn through the storm.  Avisail’s about to go crazy, but where did you go?  Avisail’s about to go crazy, but where did you go? Avisail’s about to go crazy, but where did you go?  Avisail’s about to go crazy, damn Hanley’s lazy!  Sorry, I was just listening to Atmosphere.  Check out this future shizz from September Grey last year, “(Avisail) was a preseason sleeper this year, and he will be again in fifteen-after-twenty because he missed five months this year with an injury.  Yes, he looks like Miggy, but he doesn’t act like Miggy.  He’s a 20/20 type guy without killing you on average. In this injury-plagued year, his stats don’t look exactly as he has in the past, but that’s probably due to shutting it down in April and starting it up in August.  I wouldn’t be surprised if in a few years we look back at this year and see how it didn’t portend anything.  Unless he really did learn how to take a walk, as he’s shown this year.  Though, I kinda doubt it.  I expect he’s a line drive machine, 17-20 homer and 15-steal guy with a solid-enough average.  Think what you were expecting from Michael Brantley rather than what you ended up with.”  And that’s me quoting me!  So, what can we expect of Avisail Garcia for 2015 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Uh, I just told you.  All right, let’s break it down a little further.  Last year, he stole 4 bases in 46 games (every 11.5 games — hey, look at the big brain on Grey!); in 2010 he stole a base every 6.25 games; in 2011 every 9.2 games; in 2012 every 5.3; in 2013 every 13.2 games.  In short:  he steals around one bag every 10 games.  Shorter:  Avisail should steal around 15 bags in 2015.  Shortest:  Jose Altuve.  As for his power, Avisail hits a ton of grounders; this isn’t great.  In the minor leagues, his ground ball rate was 53%.  To give you a big picture idea, 53% would’ve been the 14th highest in the majors last year, and Avisail’s rate in the majors last year was 56.2%.  His major league career rate is 56.8%.  Guys with that high of a ground ball rate are names such as Elvis Andrus, Dee Gordon, Michael Bourn.  See a trend?  Yeah, it’s not pretty.  There’s hope.  When Avisail hits a home run, it goes far.  An example:  Avisail averaged 403.9 feet on his home runs, David Ortiz averaged 401.5 and Au Shizz averaged 399.4.  Balls jump out of U.S. Cellular, so that shouldn’t be a problem.  Avisail must cut back on his ground balls and elevate more balls.  Depending on how well he does this will determine his ceiling.  If he takes his ground ball rate down to 50% and fly ball rate up to 33%, he’ll hit around 140 fly balls, which would give him around 21 home runs.  Think Ozuna with 15 steals.  The same Ozuna that was the 28th best outfielder last year with only 3 steals.  That would make Avisail around the 20th best outfielder in 2015 and he’s right now being ranked around the 70th best outfielder.  Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned he’s currently slotted into the middle of a potent lineup.  Boing it on!  For 2015, I’ll give him the projections of 83/18/87/.261/14.  Avisail’s about to go crazy and the truth went trendy.

 
  1. SteveNZ says:
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    I don’t know what to say about Avisail because I don’t think I’m even ready for fantasy baseball yet.

    What I do know is the kids are watching Night At The Museum and Carla Gugino is so hot.

    And always has been.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @SteveNZ: She’s ridiculous…

      • Birdmann says:
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        @Grey: agreed, she is a salty drool. Sin City enough said.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Never seen that actually

          • Nehocstu says:
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            @Grey:
            Grey, a man in your position, of your stature, … to admit you’ve never seen the movie?! #1, feel bad for you; #2, it is too full of images and lines just perfect for your reference! Jessica Alba on the pole! Mijo flying through the air to take out the bad cop, … Too much, too good. Please see it.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, it’s something I’ve been meaning to see for a while… Just keep missing it… Likely could just DVR it off any station at this point

              • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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                @Grey: read the comics first though, unless it’s only about gugino (which of course i understand)

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ha, it might be

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: also with Mr. SAGNOF in Son in Law

            she is topless in a thong for a while in Sin City. Just search it

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Oh boy

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: but since its in black and white it stays classy

  2. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey,

    Here’s my first stab at it. It’s called Hamster Love. I actually had work to do, so I stopped mi-stream.

    Hamster Love

    Hamster with chicken – all right
    Hittin’ out homeruns – mostly to left
    In the evenin’
    In the daytime too.

    Hamster ‘n mustard, Hamster Gold
    Goldie, Goldie gone out to left Chase Field
    And they shimmy
    And Goldie’s not skinny

    And he hit and he ran and he fanned
    Clappin’ all over the bases
    Hittin’ grand slams out to center
    Floatin’ like the heavens above
    It looks like hamster love

    Nibbling on corners, hitting high cheese
    Goldie says to Posey “Honey, would you please toss a soft ball?”
    And he says yes
    With his kisses

    And now he’s ticklin’ her fancy
    Rubbin’ her toes
    Muzzle to muzzle, now anything goes
    As they wriggle, and Sue starts to giggle

    And they whirled and they twirled and they tangoed
    Singin’ and jingin’ the jango
    Floatin’ like the heavens above
    It looks like muskrat love

    La da da da da …

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Haha… I read this with Muskrat Love playing in background and it worked… Especially love “Sue starts to giggle”… Oy…

  3. Quimmy says:
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    TC George in the final4! Don’t sleep on him.

    • nick the dick says:
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      @Quimmy: Doug stupidly eliminated for being the chef with the biggest nuts, and guess what? He is Doug and Doug is him. Short with the bearded grin, what’s his motha effin’ name?! He’ll be back…George and Melissa are both mediocre, no way he wins after missing all those challenges. Melissa is lucky to still be there.

      • Quimmy says:
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        @nick the dick:

        Agreed on Melissa, she sucks at everything that doesn’t involve cooking a vegetable beautifully. George is good though.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @nick the dick: Was waiting for you to show up after the Dougie fiasco… How ya gonna serve raw foie gras to Jacques Pepin?! C’mon!

        • nick the dick says:
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          @Grey: I popped in the last post dumb late and asked if you watched but it was on to the next post so you didn’t see it. I figure that yes, he did serve raw foie gras, but Melissa served short ribs burned on the outside and undercooked on the inside and George served undercooked veal so it was complete horse hockey to get rid of the guy who took the big risk and has been solid all season when all of them served botched proteins. He will be back in all his bearded glory amd sneak back in…..I hope…..I can’t stand Melissa still being there and George did what, 2 challenges??

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            I don’t know all the ins and outs of cooking foie gras, so I would’ve liked to hear more why it was so risky… It seemed risky to me to try to braised short ribs in three hours… Maybe because foie gras needs to be cooked on the spot and to the perfect temp… But that seems like most things… I don’t like Melissa either…

            • nick the dick says:
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              @Grey: yeah neither do I but from what I gathered, trying to roast the whole loaves of it in that short of a time was a hell of task…It seems whenever someone mentions braising short ribs on the show it’s always a question of will they be done and more often than not they ‘needed 20 more minutes’

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Yeah, 20 more minutes threw me… Braising I sorta get… It takes hours… 20 more minutes seems silly to say… I’ve never even seen a loaf of foie gras… Not sure why he didn’t do individual portions either…

                • nick the dick says:
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                  @Grey: I hadn’t seen it roasted whole like that either. Although when he plated, it didn’t look like the huge pieces he cooked. Maybe there’s something to roasting it whole before it’s portioned idk….what I do know is that between AMC playing every Mad Men and every Breaking Bad (yes, I had not watched it yet) in order, Top Chef is the only other thing I have time to watch. I’m Breaking Bad hooked at the moment and the more I watch Mad Men the more I like it.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    These aren’t spoilers… Mad Men is great for the first few seasons then the quality gets lower… Breaking Bad actually gets better… Enjoy BB, it’s amazing…

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @Grey: Yeah for what Mad Men is I do like it but can see it becoming pretty whatever, i’m in prob the 3rd season. BB is just damn good every episode. I’m a few into the 3rd season right where Skyler starts bangin Ted. Been breezing thru em at least 3 episodes a day. It’s tough to turn off. Looking forward to Better Call Saul in February.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I gotta another show for you when you finish BB… Sons of Anarchy… Watchign about 3 eps a night right now… It’s nowhere near as good, but entertaining…

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @Grey: I’ve heard good things about SOA, i’ll def check it out after.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Quimmy: He’s not winning, no one has any connection to him… No one being the audience…

      • Quimmy says:
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        @Grey: you are discounting my connection is to him grey. :(

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nope

  4. Gareth says:
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    I always seem to confuse Avisail Garcia with Oswaldo Arcia.

    Hope this doesn’t happen on draft day.

    I’d much rather have the Miggy lookalike hitting in a potent lineup who plays his home games at “the Cell” than where’s Oswaldo, who hits in a terrible lineup for the Twinkies while playing home games at the cavernous Target field.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Gareth: Both are decent gambles, different things they provide… Arcia has more power…

  5. PK says:
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    Sail!

    You’re welcome for getting that stuck in your head.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @PK: Dah!

  6. Baezaworldseries says:
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    12 team 13 keeper. I have Arenado, Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Donaldson, and one CI spot. Which one do I trade?

  7. Jon says:
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    Do you prefer Arenado or Kipnis for the next 2 seasons?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jon: Arenado

    • K Clown Baez says:
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      @Jon: Arenado is guna bust out if he stays healthy – he has the tools and ballpark to smash some great numbers (with nice avg and low k%) for years to come. Kipnis’ strikeouts got more manageable last year but his hits and power disappeared, he’ll bounce back some but I say Arenado.

  8. Jamiehov says:
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    Grey, I didn’t realize you listened to Atmosphere. I’m going to have to throw You Can’t Imagine… On my way home tonight. How’d you feel about Southsiders??

    The sleeper posts are great. Seeing Segura and Gyrko make me anxious since they really hurt me last year but I’m more than willing to take shots on those guys again, especially Segura. He had a rough yr all around, would love to see him bounce back

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Never really got into Southsiders… I like his older stuff better… Is it good? Should I give it another chance?

      • Jamiehov says:
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        @Grey:

        Yeah, give it another shot. January on Lake Street and Flickr are my favorites but the entire album is really good. Much better than Family Sign. If you like early 2000 indie stuff also check out the new Sage Francis, Hail Mary Mallon and Dilated. All are really good!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Sweet, I will try again b/c I do love his other albums…

          • Dranksin' says:
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            @Grey:

            “Their” albums… no disrespect to Ant…

  9. Ra'zball Al Ghul says:
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    Can’t freakin wait for your rankings Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Coming Monday!

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: Answer.

        Question…What will they all be doing in their coffee mugs?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Swimming?

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey: zillions ofem…

  10. Wake Up says:
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    Never wrestle a downs syndrome girl…apparently, they have retard strength…have no idea why Avisail reminded me of this old axiom…also, not sure why I always picture a rental car on a sailboat every time I hear his name? Oh well, lesson learned.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Maybe that’s what Fielder’s wife was doing… Simply wrestling…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: indubitably…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Imcrackedoutably… Is that an adverb?

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey: My guess is you’d walk even less than “The Adverb”…if that were the case…wait, are you still stuck on pipes?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha… I am…

              • Wake Up says:
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                @Grey: Celebrity Razzhab?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I like it, with Dr. Grey

  11. Kutty says:
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    So………………..Pollock or Garcia?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Tomato-tomahto

  12. Clint says:
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    This gives birth to the inevitable Styx Fantasy Baseball Team Name so fast the Razzball generator just replied with “Really?”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha!

  13. The JoGarza says:
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    Is it me or does it feel like you can field a viable team past the 10th round more than any year?

    C- ANYONE
    1B- Kennys Vargas
    2B-Kolten Wong
    3B-Xander Bogarts
    SS-Jean Segura
    OF- Avisail Garcia
    OF-Oswaldo Arcia
    OF-AJ Pollock

    And these are pretty much just your sleepers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, in theory, but there’s risk for all of them…

      • Garrett says:
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        who do you love the most out of all your sleepers ?
        @Grey:

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Wong

          • los locos says:
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            @Grey: HAHA! You love Wong.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Oh yeah!

  14. Nico says:
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    Greyyyy! I’m holding the “y” like we’re old friends reuniting. Anywho, let me float this one by you, unrelated to Avisail. I wanted to know what you quickly thought about Stephen Vogt, and if you’re going to rank him with Catchers this season? I think if you’re punting, he could be a valuable and potentially top-10 C. Is a 50/15/60/.275/2 line achievable?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, niiiiiiice…. Vogt is ranked, catcher rankings come on Wednesday… That line is not achievable

      • Nico says:
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        @Grey: Good stuff! Thanks. Does he see 140 games this year, given his position eligibility? …apparently my avatar is fugged.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No way, maybe 125

  15. los locos says:
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    Rotowire has Corey Dickerson ranked 21 top 350. WOW. I’m in a ten team keeper league, where we keep 7 guys. He would be a 1st rd pick in that league. Dickerson or Pence?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Dickerson

  16. los locos says:
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    how do you feel about McHugh, Shoemaker, Paxton and Odorizzi?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Rankings start next week

  17. mark says:
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    In a standard 5X5 Roto league with OBP instead of BA, I have a choice between keeping Kole Calhoun or Carlos Carrasco (dual SP / RP). Your thoughts?

    Below are my other keepers:
    Hanley Ramirez
    Robinson Cano
    Paul Goldschmidt
    Freddie Freeman
    Bryce Harper
    Yoenis Cespedes
    Clayton Kershaw
    Adam Wainwright

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Calhoun

  18. HatsOff says:
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    Grey, who would you keep – $9 deGrom or $7 Pineda?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      DeGrom

  19. Kid Z says:
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    Hey ! Whatsup Gray? Great writeup!!!
    Can you please rank: Zunino, Jaso, Salty, Grandal, Ruiz, Suzuki, Conger, Castillo, Milano?

    Thanks Dude!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Rankings come next week

  20. Cafuné

    Maxi says:
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    Great sleeper posts to start the year so far, keep ’em coming.

    This will be my league’s last year before a keeper refresh and which we’ll change to auction draft; currently, it’s a H2H, 12 team league, snake draft, 5 keepers total; no AVG, SLG and OBP are added.

    My potential keeper OFs are: Pollock (25th round), Corey Dickerson (25), Avisail (19), Soler (25) and Cespedes (8). Right now, I’m inclined to keep just 2 of them, cuz I also have Wong (25), Abreu (5) and one of either Strasburg (7), DeGrom (25) or Gray (20). If I decide to not keep a pitcher, I could then keep 3 OFs.

    From those OFs, who would you keep and would you keep a 3rd OF over any of those pitchers? Which do you think I could steal later in the draft?
    Also, I was offered Miggy (1) for my deGrom/Gray. Thoughts?

    Gracias señor!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Strasburg, Dickerson, Soler… Forget Miggy

      • Cafuné

        Maxi says:
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        @Grey: Thanks for the response, and do you prefer Wong to Avisail? 2B is scary thin

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup, Wong

  21. Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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    would you trade cain sugar at 546 K for this year only to get cosart for 400 K per year for next 2 years? this team has only frazier/votto/hoes/melky/kang (SS)/szurcur for hitters that might be active and only F-Her/Quackenbush/Garza/Cloyd/B.Morris/S.Johnson/Francis for pitchers. 30 man dynasty with holds and OPS.

    league has 3 OF/2 CI/2MI/1 C/ 1 util. 3 SP/ 3 RP/ 3 P per day. 25 man active rosters, 100 million budget.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nope

  22. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    anybody else notice that fielder’s (ex?) wife looks exactly like kenny F’ing power’s wife?

    • Hondo says:
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      @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: Well,they are similar in that one is really hot and the other is enough to make you want to burn your eyes out with hot pokers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      HA… Totally

  23. J-FOH says:
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    I was watching Hustle and Flow last night with the babys mama. Have you seen it yet?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You mean the movie or the TV show that looks like the movie called Empire?