Today we (hint: it’s in the title) go over the top 20 3rd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball. Now that we’re knee deep in the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings we can get a better idea of how deep certain positions are. Lawrie was 20th for the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball and here he’s 23rd. On the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball, Frazier was 10th overall, and here he’s 8th, and Chisenhall is 40th here, but 44th for 1st basemen. Bogaerts was 7th at the top 20 shortstops for 2015 fantasy baseball and here he’s 15th. Finally, in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball, Santana is first and here he’s 12th. In summation, catchers are the worst, then shortstops, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and 1st basemen. No real surprises there, but shortstops, 2nd basemen and 3rd basemen are pretty close to a toss up in depth (or derp). To summate my summation, lowercase yay. As always, my projections and tiers are noted. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball:
1. Miguel Cabrera – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
2. Anthony Rendon – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
3. Josh Donaldson – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
4. Nolan Arenado – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
5. Adrian Beltre – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Frazier. I call this tier, “Four ladies and gentlemen, your top nine.” After this top nine, I don’t want any of those guys as my 3rd baseman. I like, say, Xander Bogaerts, but he feels more like a shortstop or corner infidel. He also feels squishy in the middle. Manny Machado could become a top 3rd baseman, but he’s done nothing in the last twelve months to state that case. Kyle Seager could be okay, or his ground balls could stop miraculously turning into home runs. David Wright could play a full year, but I’m not sure I want him for it. As for Beltre, he’s the best bet to return his fantasy value and he’s the best bet to finally break down and return no value. The first half of that equation is because he’s done it for about the last ten years, barring injury. The 2nd half of that equation goes like this: he’s going to be 36 years old in April. Yeah, he looks like Dorian Gray (no relation), but he’s well into his 30’s now, and at some point the Botox is going to freeze half his face and he’s going to look like Greta Van Susteren. His batted ball profile says he has become a slightly different hitter. A better one, making more solid contact. He backed away from homers, if you were to believe this past year was a start of a trend, and had his highest line drive rate of his career. For someone who started in 2002, that’s a big sample size — that’s what she said! — to suddenly post your best line drive rate. But if his line drive rate comes down a little, and his fly balls stay where they are, he could be an 18-homer, .280 hitter, and that reminds me of Aramis Ramirez. How dare you remind me of Aramis Ramirez! 2015 Projections: 86/22/97/.291/1
6. Evan Longoria – Let’s quote 2008 through 2013 Grey, “Longoria is going to win the MVP!” Oh, you poor misguided Grey. You’re handsome, but hella dopey. I’m glad we’re only related through chromosomes. So, Longoria never became the player I thought he would — the perennial 35-homer, 15-steal guy with a .275 average. Shoot (not you, Dick Cheney!), Longoria never even became a 35-homer, 15-steal guy for one year forget perennially. Alas, he’s a 25-homer, 5-steal guy. Alas Part II, More Sadness, 25 homers and five steals is decent nowadays as long as it’s not followed by a .220 average. 2015 Projections: 81/25/90/.261/5
7. Chris Davis – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
8. Todd Frazier – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
9. Kyle Seager – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Wright. I call this tier, “These guys feel Common. On the corners. I wish I could give you this feeling. I wish I could give you this feeling.” The corner was our Rock of Gibraltar, our Stonehenge, our Taj Mahal, our monument. Now it’s guys that you hope hit 20 homers and don’t make you scour waivers for a replacement. I’d feel okay playing these guys as my corner infidel, but they don’t give me enough confidence for a 3rd baseman. As for Seager, the Mariners gave him a $100 million deal this past offseason, so he’ll likely reach at least the 25 homers, 7 steals and .268 average he had last year, right? Yup, the Mariners have never made a bad deal. The $3 billion they gave Cano until he reaches the age of 47 seems like money well spent, at least. But, to play devil’s advocate, let’s say the Mariners $100 million to Seager is no indication of his ability to hit better in 2015. Last year, Seager hit more ground balls than ever in his career, and less fly balls. He had a new career high in homers, not because he hit the ball further, but because he just hit more homers per fly ball, which isn’t a great sign. I don’t think he’s going to fall off the map like a 15th century explorer, but I think we might’ve just saw his peak. 2015 Projections: 70/22/84/.259/8
10. Pablo Sandoval – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Why do I have an image of Pablo picking a wedgie and Pedroia falling out? I’ll have to ask my therapist, which is one word and not to be confused with Bill Cosby. By the by, how long until we get breaking news that Cosby is riding down the 405 in an SUV driven by A.C. Cowlings? Not long, right? He love pudding his pop where it don’t belong! Okay, I’m done. I get the feeling that the average baseball fan will think Hanley is going to be the big signing by the Sawx. (By ‘average,’ I mean not OCD crazy like moi.) But, in reality, I get the feeling the Sandoval signing is going to be the one that the Sons of Sam Horn are going to be crazy about next September. Sandoval’s skills are going to play perfectly into the Green Monster. His spray charts have him about as evenly distributed for line drives and home runs to all fields as any player. His splits were terrible last year (.200 vs. lefties), but that was never an issue any other year, and I’m not concerned. I see him knocking balls off the wall and contending for a batting title. Of course, I’ll keep expectations slightly more in check, but obviously I think there’s big room for upside. Well, with Pablo, you need a big room.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 79/21/92/.304/2
11. Carlos Santana – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.
12. David Wright – Last year, he hit 8 homers and stole 8 bases. That would’ve been solid. If he only played one month. He played in 134 games. Sure, he had an injury. A busted-up shoulder that required surgery. Unfortch, he didn’t have surgery. The Mets said he didn’t need it. Um, yeah. And Chastity Bono didn’t need surgery either, she just needed to hold her arm real low and in the middle of her legs. Wright could be fine, as he says he is, but I have serious doubts. Right now, he’s getting by on good vibes and bad farts. 2015 Projections: 74/16/81/.282/10
13. Ryan Zimmerman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Castellanos. I call this tier, “The state of offense is in the dumpster and to get to said dumpster you need to go past 3rd base.” You may think I’m overstating the direness of 3rd base. You may be like, “Grey, you make bacon sizzle by just looking at it, but 3rd base isn’t that bad.” Okay, you also forgot that in most leagues there’s a corner man drafted, which means some schmohawks in your league may take two of the above 3rd basemen, which means at 3rd base you could have a guy that hit 5 homers last year. That’s fun. Last year, there were only twelve 3rd basemen that gave more than $10 in fantasy value. That’s the same as 2nd base and shortstop had eleven guys. I think 3rd base will be better this year, but recent history says I might be overly optimistic. Wrap your noodle around that, dip it into Sriracha and it still sucks. As for Zimmerman, he seems to have these absolute garbage years from time to time and bounces back the next year. Well, that’s at least what I’ll keep telling myself if I get stuck drafting him again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice and, “Could you please stop fooling me? I’m seriously gullible.” 2015 Projections: 67/21/79/.284/3
14. Xander Bogaerts – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2015 fantasy baseball.
15. Manny Machado – He could easily put up a top 20 overall season. Not just top ten 3rd basemen. Not top 50 overall. Top 20. The only thing that stopped me from ranking him higher is he hasn’t come close to putting up numbers anywhere near those. You start at Machado and put “top 20 overall” into Waze and it has no idea how to get there. 2015 Projections: 79/16/64/.285/7
16. Kris Bryant – I already gave you my Kris Bryant fantasy. There I said, “Drake’s Yodels…Gayle King to the curb…deflated balloon animals…” Hmm, I gotta work on what quotes I pull. As for the Valbuena trade, the Cubs have said it doesn’t speed up Bryant’s clock, and I believe them. There’s some speculation that all Bryant needs to do to get an extra year of service time on the Cubs is stay in the minors for the first nine games of the season. If that is true, I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Bryant in the minors until May. Teams don’t like to seem so obvious in their greediness by promoting a player at the first possible moment, which they will cover with something like, “He’s still adjusting blah blah blah.” Or maybe he hits .220 in April and just isn’t ready. Either way, I still see his clock being set in motion on June 1st, but there’s obviously some upside here for more playing time in the majors. 2015 Projections: 42/19/54/.256/3
17. Chase Headley – How many people thought Headley would be ranked lower? Show of hands. Those of you who forgot deodorant this morning can lower their hands. Okay, how many people thought there were a lot more 3rd basemen worth drafting? Yup. Here’s what I said this offseason about Headley, “Signed with the Yankees. He’ll likely play 3rd base and maybe cede time to A-Rod, which is appropriate since A-Rod’s known in strip clubs by the pet name, Chase Manly Head. If Headley were to have played all of last season in New York, he would’ve hit about 14 homers, which would have been his 2nd highest home run total in his career. Sadly, the way offense is going 14 homers is going to lead the league in a few years.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 67/16/71/.274/6
18. Yasmany Tomas – Well, fingers crossed that he’s going to play 3rd base. Ab&qakcxa@– Okay, I’ll wait until the end of the post to cross my fingers. I’m also not sure how Yahoo, ESPN, et al (not the Israeli airline) will handle his eligibility so, for now, I’d consider this ranking 8 1/2 and not quite 9. Here’s what I said this offseason when he signed, “Signed with the Diamondbacks. Since time is circular and we can speak to different selves in different times, my suggestion to your eight-year-old self that is living his time in 1998, hoping to break into the big leagues (or roll cigars): move to Cuba! By this time in 2020, there will be more Cuban raftees playing in the major leagues than in Cuba. The Cubs may just make their name singular and add an article at the end. The weird thing is every time I see a video of Cuba the only thing I see is someone patting their brow and fanning themselves with a Panama Jack hat. Maybe that’s why all Cuban hitters swing so wildly, they’re trying to simulate the wind current from the waving of a hat. Go ahead, pfft all you want, but that’s about as solid as a theory as I’ve ever heard from someone who was popping pain killers. I’m high, y’all! Nothing about Yasmany Tomas is clear just like with most Cuban raftees. Yasmany even has one more thing confusing, how do you spell his name? I’ve seen it Yasmani and Yasmany. To me, Yasmany is the bomb dot gov spelling. As in, do you want to make mucho dollars in the U.S. of A.? “Yes many.” The pictures I’ve seen of him remind me more of Jose Abreu than other Cuban superstars. Tomas looks like your stereotypical corner outfielder. During the 2013 season in Cuba, he hit 15 homers, .289 and had 52 Ks in 324 plate appearances with a .364 OBP. (Yas)Many people before me have speculated that Cuban ball is the same as Triple-A. If a 24-year-old did that in Triple-A, there would be no questioning his potential. Since he did it in Cuba, it adds a bit of risk. The consensus has him below Abreu in power, but just about equal to him with speed. I’ll add that Yasmany looks less than Abreu for average, too. The scouts that want to get punched in the mouth by Scott Boras say Tomas could be the second coming of Dayan Viciedo. Um, ouch. I’d imagine he’ll be a tad better than that, and comparable to Yoenis Cespedes with a few less steals. To go all non-Cuban on you, I’ve read he reminds some of Marlon Byrd. Obviously, there’s huge upside and downside and I kinda want him on all my teams just so I don’t miss the newest Jose Abreu.” And that’s me quoting me! UPDATE: Due to a minor league demotion to start the year, I’ve tempered my expectations. I now have no expectations. If only I could tempura my expectations, that sounds delicious. 2015 Projections: 59/21/69/.259/3
19. Matt Carpenter – Carpenter last year went 99/8/59/.272/5. How does that compare to 67/14/73/.271/8? About the same, right? Few more home runs, RBIs and steals from the mysterious other line and a lot more runs from Carpenter. That mystery line is the projections for Scooter Gennett, who is ranked 17th overall at the top 20 2nd basemen. Neither line is spectacular. I’m just reenforcing my point that the 3rd basemen are not that deep. 2015 Projections: 87/12/77/.281/3
20. Nick Castellanos – Put Castellanos on the Cardinals and in Carpenter’s spot in the order, and they’d have near-identical stats. The only difference for casual fans would be Castellanos doesn’t spit sunflower seeds while on the field, but carries a shawarma spit. 2015 Projections: 62/14/71/.264/4
21. Daniel Murphy – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Harrison. I call this tier, “3rd base is deep due to a shizzton of players that are eligible elsewhere.” As for Murphy, went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
22. Brett Lawrie – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
23. Josh Harrison – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
24. Trevor Plouffe – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Asche. I call this tier, “Shizz is dire, young squire.” Hmm, after looking at who is eligible at only 3rd, I want the multi-positional players again. As for Plouffe, I think instead of saying, “Pfft!” I’m going to start saying, “Plouffe!” You don’t think the 3rd basemen are bad? Plouffe! Last year, I projected Plouffe for 51/15/63/.242/2 and he got 69/14/80/.258/2 and ended up ranking 13th overall. Only I ranked him in the preseason 31st overall. Plouffe! That’s right, I projected him for pretty close what he ended up with and thought there would be 18 guys better than him. Only there wasn’t. Plouffe! Plouffe! Plouffe! 2015 Projections: 61/15/77/.251/2
25. Aramis Ramirez – The Vegas odds go something like this: 2 to 1 that Aramis gets out of February healthy; 4 to 1 that he gets out of March; 12 to 1 that he gets out of April; 22 to 1 that he makes it all the way to May healthy; 47 to 1 that he gets to the All-Star break healthy and Are You Out Of Your Mind to 1 that he stays healthy all year. 2015 Projections: 51/14/60/.278/2
26. Mike Moustakas – Proof that humans are still evolving: I didn’t write a sleeper post about Moustakas this year. Take that, Carl Everett! (Now when Moustakas tears it up in spring training…Well…) 2015 Projections: 55/19/63/.226/2
27. Pedro Alvarez – It wasn’t that long ago Alvarez was a top option at 3rd base. It wasn’t THAT long ago Alvarez was a top option at 3rd base. It wasn’t that long ago Alvarez was a TOP option at 3rd base. Sorry, I was just trying to jog my memory. 2015 Projections: 54/22/59/.229/4
28. Hector Olivera – Hector of Olivera, Cuban Baseballmania, Ole Uribe, Corey Seager year away, Dodgers beat Padres, Pope Vin, Puig X, Mattingly Lineup Sets, NL West blown away, what else do I have to say? 2015 Projections: 51/14/56/.272/6 in 400 ABs
29. Alex Rodriguez – Chase Headley said, “I look forward to playing with Alex. I don’t foresee there being any friction, especially from my side.” There won’t be any friction on either side as long as Headley doesn’t grow out his hair or get out of the shower with only a hand towel covering his genitals. A-Roid’s best possibility for playing time is DH, but it makes more logical sense to platoon him with Garrett Jones. Also, reports are saying A-Rod gained a lot of weight since he last played, so his dreams of taking the DH job and running with it might’ve took a fork in the road. 2015 Projections: 52/15/56/.249/3
30. David Freese – The Angels team looks like its built by the guy at your draft that doesn’t do any homework and just watches SportsCenter. “Hmm… Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Freese, Jered Weaver, geez, how am I the only one bidding on them? These guys were on the MasterCard All-Century team, weren’t they?” 2015 Projections: 58/12/62/.252/1
31. Chris Johnson – In 2013, Johnson nearly won the batting title. In 2014, he hit .263. In 2015, he will A) Do something that no one will care about. B) Forget to take out the trash and catch hell from his wife, while doing something on the field that no one cares about. C) There’s no C. 2015 Projections: 51/9/60/.274/4
32. Juan Uribe – My Magic Eight Ball says Uribe will get hot on May 7th for a week and you should own him then. I also accidentally left my Magic Eight Ball out in the rain and sometimes it reads, “Owlook: Cloudee.” Anyone know a good Magic Eight Ball repair shop? 2015 Projections: 47/10/52/.261/2
33. Casey McGehee – Here’s what I said this offseason, “McGehee was traded to the Giants. With the lose of Sandoval, the Giants got the next best thing. Someone who has watched sumo in person and can replicate it.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 57/6/61/.261/3
34. Cody Asche – Member when I was crazy for Asche last year, calling him a sleeper? You don’t? Good! 2015 Projections: 52/9/54/.248/2
35. Marcus Semien – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Chisenhall. I call this tier, “Semien or Chis sounds like a dirty version of tomato or tomahto.” These guys shouldn’t excite you at 3rd base or corner, until that week when they get hot and you pick them up off waivers. As for Semien, went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
36. Jonathan Schoop – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
37. Yangervis Solarte – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
38. Martin Prado – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
39. Alexi Amarista – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
40. Lonnie Chisenhall – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
41. Maikel Franco – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Gallo. I call this tier, “Worth a flyer in keepers.” Sandberg said Asche will try to play 1st base and left field during spring training, which is code for Maikel Franco is going to win a judgment in the landmark case of sooner vs. later. I’ve already given you my Maikel Franco fantasy. It was written originally above my tramp stamp. 2015 Projections: 44/14/48/.248/2
42. Joey Gallo – I already gave you my Joey Gallo fantasy. I wrote it while spiking my hair to look like Richard Blais. 2015 Projections: 27/9/36/.210/2
