Today we (hint: it’s in the title) go over the top 20 3rd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball. Now that we’re knee deep in the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings we can get a better idea of how deep certain positions are. Lawrie was 20th for the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball and here he’s 23rd. On the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball, Frazier was 10th overall, and here he’s 8th, and Chisenhall is 40th here, but 44th for 1st basemen. Bogaerts was 7th at the top 20 shortstops for 2015 fantasy baseball and here he’s 15th. Finally, in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball, Santana is first and here he’s 12th. In summation, catchers are the worst, then shortstops, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and 1st basemen. No real surprises there, but shortstops, 2nd basemen and 3rd basemen are pretty close to a toss up in depth (or derp). To summate my summation, lowercase yay. As always, my projections and tiers are noted. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball:
1. Miguel Cabrera – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
2. Anthony Rendon – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
3. Josh Donaldson – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
4. Nolan Arenado – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
5. Adrian Beltre – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Frazier. I call this tier, “Four ladies and gentlemen, your top nine.” After this top nine, I don’t want any of those guys as my 3rd baseman. I like, say, Xander Bogaerts, but he feels more like a shortstop or corner infidel. He also feels squishy in the middle. Manny Machado could become a top 3rd baseman, but he’s done nothing in the last twelve months to state that case. Kyle Seager could be okay, or his ground balls could stop miraculously turning into home runs. David Wright could play a full year, but I’m not sure I want him for it. As for Beltre, he’s the best bet to return his fantasy value and he’s the best bet to finally break down and return no value. The first half of that equation is because he’s done it for about the last ten years, barring injury. The 2nd half of that equation goes like this: he’s going to be 36 years old in April. Yeah, he looks like Dorian Gray (no relation), but he’s well into his 30’s now, and at some point the Botox is going to freeze half his face and he’s going to look like Greta Van Susteren. His batted ball profile says he has become a slightly different hitter. A better one, making more solid contact. He backed away from homers, if you were to believe this past year was a start of a trend, and had his highest line drive rate of his career. For someone who started in 2002, that’s a big sample size — that’s what she said! — to suddenly post your best line drive rate. But if his line drive rate comes down a little, and his fly balls stay where they are, he could be an 18-homer, .280 hitter, and that reminds me of Aramis Ramirez. How dare you remind me of Aramis Ramirez! 2015 Projections: 86/22/97/.291/1
6. Evan Longoria – Let’s quote 2008 through 2013 Grey, “Longoria is going to win the MVP!” Oh, you poor misguided Grey. You’re handsome, but hella dopey. I’m glad we’re only related through chromosomes. So, Longoria never became the player I thought he would — the perennial 35-homer, 15-steal guy with a .275 average. Shoot (not you, Dick Cheney!), Longoria never even became a 35-homer, 15-steal guy for one year forget perennially. Alas, he’s a 25-homer, 5-steal guy. Alas Part II, More Sadness, 25 homers and five steals is decent nowadays as long as it’s not followed by a .220 average. 2015 Projections: 81/25/90/.261/5
7. Chris Davis – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
8. Todd Frazier – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
9. Kyle Seager – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Wright. I call this tier, “These guys feel Common. On the corners. I wish I could give you this feeling. I wish I could give you this feeling.” The corner was our Rock of Gibraltar, our Stonehenge, our Taj Mahal, our monument. Now it’s guys that you hope hit 20 homers and don’t make you scour waivers for a replacement. I’d feel okay playing these guys as my corner infidel, but they don’t give me enough confidence for a 3rd baseman. As for Seager, the Mariners gave him a $100 million deal this past offseason, so he’ll likely reach at least the 25 homers, 7 steals and .268 average he had last year, right? Yup, the Mariners have never made a bad deal. The $3 billion they gave Cano until he reaches the age of 47 seems like money well spent, at least. But, to play devil’s advocate, let’s say the Mariners $100 million to Seager is no indication of his ability to hit better in 2015. Last year, Seager hit more ground balls than ever in his career, and less fly balls. He had a new career high in homers, not because he hit the ball further, but because he just hit more homers per fly ball, which isn’t a great sign. I don’t think he’s going to fall off the map like a 15th century explorer, but I think we might’ve just saw his peak. 2015 Projections: 70/22/84/.259/8
10. Pablo Sandoval – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Why do I have an image of Pablo picking a wedgie and Pedroia falling out? I’ll have to ask my therapist, which is one word and not to be confused with Bill Cosby. By the by, how long until we get breaking news that Cosby is riding down the 405 in an SUV driven by A.C. Cowlings? Not long, right? He love pudding his pop where it don’t belong! Okay, I’m done. I get the feeling that the average baseball fan will think Hanley is going to be the big signing by the Sawx. (By ‘average,’ I mean not OCD crazy like moi.) But, in reality, I get the feeling the Sandoval signing is going to be the one that the Sons of Sam Horn are going to be crazy about next September. Sandoval’s skills are going to play perfectly into the Green Monster. His spray charts have him about as evenly distributed for line drives and home runs to all fields as any player. His splits were terrible last year (.200 vs. lefties), but that was never an issue any other year, and I’m not concerned. I see him knocking balls off the wall and contending for a batting title. Of course, I’ll keep expectations slightly more in check, but obviously I think there’s big room for upside. Well, with Pablo, you need a big room.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 79/21/92/.304/2
11. Carlos Santana – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.
12. David Wright – Last year, he hit 8 homers and stole 8 bases. That would’ve been solid. If he only played one month. He played in 134 games. Sure, he had an injury. A busted-up shoulder that required surgery. Unfortch, he didn’t have surgery. The Mets said he didn’t need it. Um, yeah. And Chastity Bono didn’t need surgery either, she just needed to hold her arm real low and in the middle of her legs. Wright could be fine, as he says he is, but I have serious doubts. Right now, he’s getting by on good vibes and bad farts. 2015 Projections: 74/16/81/.282/10
13. Ryan Zimmerman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Castellanos. I call this tier, “The state of offense is in the dumpster and to get to said dumpster you need to go past 3rd base.” You may think I’m overstating the direness of 3rd base. You may be like, “Grey, you make bacon sizzle by just looking at it, but 3rd base isn’t that bad.” Okay, you also forgot that in most leagues there’s a corner man drafted, which means some schmohawks in your league may take two of the above 3rd basemen, which means at 3rd base you could have a guy that hit 5 homers last year. That’s fun. Last year, there were only twelve 3rd basemen that gave more than $10 in fantasy value. That’s the same as 2nd base and shortstop had eleven guys. I think 3rd base will be better this year, but recent history says I might be overly optimistic. Wrap your noodle around that, dip it into Sriracha and it still sucks. As for Zimmerman, he seems to have these absolute garbage years from time to time and bounces back the next year. Well, that’s at least what I’ll keep telling myself if I get stuck drafting him again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice and, “Could you please stop fooling me? I’m seriously gullible.” 2015 Projections: 67/21/79/.284/3
14. Xander Bogaerts – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2015 fantasy baseball.
15. Manny Machado – He could easily put up a top 20 overall season. Not just top ten 3rd basemen. Not top 50 overall. Top 20. The only thing that stopped me from ranking him higher is he hasn’t come close to putting up numbers anywhere near those. You start at Machado and put “top 20 overall” into Waze and it has no idea how to get there. 2015 Projections: 79/16/64/.285/7
16. Kris Bryant – I already gave you my Kris Bryant fantasy. There I said, “Drake’s Yodels…Gayle King to the curb…deflated balloon animals…” Hmm, I gotta work on what quotes I pull. As for the Valbuena trade, the Cubs have said it doesn’t speed up Bryant’s clock, and I believe them. There’s some speculation that all Bryant needs to do to get an extra year of service time on the Cubs is stay in the minors for the first nine games of the season. If that is true, I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Bryant in the minors until May. Teams don’t like to seem so obvious in their greediness by promoting a player at the first possible moment, which they will cover with something like, “He’s still adjusting blah blah blah.” Or maybe he hits .220 in April and just isn’t ready. Either way, I still see his clock being set in motion on June 1st, but there’s obviously some upside here for more playing time in the majors. 2015 Projections: 42/19/54/.256/3
17. Chase Headley – How many people thought Headley would be ranked lower? Show of hands. Those of you who forgot deodorant this morning can lower their hands. Okay, how many people thought there were a lot more 3rd basemen worth drafting? Yup. Here’s what I said this offseason about Headley, “Signed with the Yankees. He’ll likely play 3rd base and maybe cede time to A-Rod, which is appropriate since A-Rod’s known in strip clubs by the pet name, Chase Manly Head. If Headley were to have played all of last season in New York, he would’ve hit about 14 homers, which would have been his 2nd highest home run total in his career. Sadly, the way offense is going 14 homers is going to lead the league in a few years.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 67/16/71/.274/6
18. Yasmany Tomas – Well, fingers crossed that he’s going to play 3rd base. Ab&[email protected]– Okay, I’ll wait until the end of the post to cross my fingers. I’m also not sure how Yahoo, ESPN, et al (not the Israeli airline) will handle his eligibility so, for now, I’d consider this ranking 8 1/2 and not quite 9. Here’s what I said this offseason when he signed, “Signed with the Diamondbacks. Since time is circular and we can speak to different selves in different times, my suggestion to your eight-year-old self that is living his time in 1998, hoping to break into the big leagues (or roll cigars): move to Cuba! By this time in 2020, there will be more Cuban raftees playing in the major leagues than in Cuba. The Cubs may just make their name singular and add an article at the end. The weird thing is every time I see a video of Cuba the only thing I see is someone patting their brow and fanning themselves with a Panama Jack hat. Maybe that’s why all Cuban hitters swing so wildly, they’re trying to simulate the wind current from the waving of a hat. Go ahead, pfft all you want, but that’s about as solid as a theory as I’ve ever heard from someone who was popping pain killers. I’m high, y’all! Nothing about Yasmany Tomas is clear just like with most Cuban raftees. Yasmany even has one more thing confusing, how do you spell his name? I’ve seen it Yasmani and Yasmany. To me, Yasmany is the bomb dot gov spelling. As in, do you want to make mucho dollars in the U.S. of A.? “Yes many.” The pictures I’ve seen of him remind me more of Jose Abreu than other Cuban superstars. Tomas looks like your stereotypical corner outfielder. During the 2013 season in Cuba, he hit 15 homers, .289 and had 52 Ks in 324 plate appearances with a .364 OBP. (Yas)Many people before me have speculated that Cuban ball is the same as Triple-A. If a 24-year-old did that in Triple-A, there would be no questioning his potential. Since he did it in Cuba, it adds a bit of risk. The consensus has him below Abreu in power, but just about equal to him with speed. I’ll add that Yasmany looks less than Abreu for average, too. The scouts that want to get punched in the mouth by Scott Boras say Tomas could be the second coming of Dayan Viciedo. Um, ouch. I’d imagine he’ll be a tad better than that, and comparable to Yoenis Cespedes with a few less steals. To go all non-Cuban on you, I’ve read he reminds some of Marlon Byrd. Obviously, there’s huge upside and downside and I kinda want him on all my teams just so I don’t miss the newest Jose Abreu.” And that’s me quoting me! UPDATE: Due to a minor league demotion to start the year, I’ve tempered my expectations. I now have no expectations. If only I could tempura my expectations, that sounds delicious. 2015 Projections: 59/21/69/.259/3
19. Matt Carpenter – Carpenter last year went 99/8/59/.272/5. How does that compare to 67/14/73/.271/8? About the same, right? Few more home runs, RBIs and steals from the mysterious other line and a lot more runs from Carpenter. That mystery line is the projections for Scooter Gennett, who is ranked 17th overall at the top 20 2nd basemen. Neither line is spectacular. I’m just reenforcing my point that the 3rd basemen are not that deep. 2015 Projections: 87/12/77/.281/3
20. Nick Castellanos – Put Castellanos on the Cardinals and in Carpenter’s spot in the order, and they’d have near-identical stats. The only difference for casual fans would be Castellanos doesn’t spit sunflower seeds while on the field, but carries a shawarma spit. 2015 Projections: 62/14/71/.264/4
21. Daniel Murphy – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Harrison. I call this tier, “3rd base is deep due to a shizzton of players that are eligible elsewhere.” As for Murphy, went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
22. Brett Lawrie – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
23. Josh Harrison – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
24. Trevor Plouffe – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Asche. I call this tier, “Shizz is dire, young squire.” Hmm, after looking at who is eligible at only 3rd, I want the multi-positional players again. As for Plouffe, I think instead of saying, “Pfft!” I’m going to start saying, “Plouffe!” You don’t think the 3rd basemen are bad? Plouffe! Last year, I projected Plouffe for 51/15/63/.242/2 and he got 69/14/80/.258/2 and ended up ranking 13th overall. Only I ranked him in the preseason 31st overall. Plouffe! That’s right, I projected him for pretty close what he ended up with and thought there would be 18 guys better than him. Only there wasn’t. Plouffe! Plouffe! Plouffe! 2015 Projections: 61/15/77/.251/2
25. Aramis Ramirez – The Vegas odds go something like this: 2 to 1 that Aramis gets out of February healthy; 4 to 1 that he gets out of March; 12 to 1 that he gets out of April; 22 to 1 that he makes it all the way to May healthy; 47 to 1 that he gets to the All-Star break healthy and Are You Out Of Your Mind to 1 that he stays healthy all year. 2015 Projections: 51/14/60/.278/2
26. Mike Moustakas – Proof that humans are still evolving: I didn’t write a sleeper post about Moustakas this year. Take that, Carl Everett! (Now when Moustakas tears it up in spring training…Well…) 2015 Projections: 55/19/63/.226/2
27. Pedro Alvarez – It wasn’t that long ago Alvarez was a top option at 3rd base. It wasn’t THAT long ago Alvarez was a top option at 3rd base. It wasn’t that long ago Alvarez was a TOP option at 3rd base. Sorry, I was just trying to jog my memory. 2015 Projections: 54/22/59/.229/4
28. Hector Olivera – Hector of Olivera, Cuban Baseballmania, Ole Uribe, Corey Seager year away, Dodgers beat Padres, Pope Vin, Puig X, Mattingly Lineup Sets, NL West blown away, what else do I have to say? 2015 Projections: 51/14/56/.272/6 in 400 ABs
29. Alex Rodriguez – Chase Headley said, “I look forward to playing with Alex. I don’t foresee there being any friction, especially from my side.” There won’t be any friction on either side as long as Headley doesn’t grow out his hair or get out of the shower with only a hand towel covering his genitals. A-Roid’s best possibility for playing time is DH, but it makes more logical sense to platoon him with Garrett Jones. Also, reports are saying A-Rod gained a lot of weight since he last played, so his dreams of taking the DH job and running with it might’ve took a fork in the road. 2015 Projections: 52/15/56/.249/3
30. David Freese – The Angels team looks like its built by the guy at your draft that doesn’t do any homework and just watches SportsCenter. “Hmm… Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Freese, Jered Weaver, geez, how am I the only one bidding on them? These guys were on the MasterCard All-Century team, weren’t they?” 2015 Projections: 58/12/62/.252/1
31. Chris Johnson – In 2013, Johnson nearly won the batting title. In 2014, he hit .263. In 2015, he will A) Do something that no one will care about. B) Forget to take out the trash and catch hell from his wife, while doing something on the field that no one cares about. C) There’s no C. 2015 Projections: 51/9/60/.274/4
32. Juan Uribe – My Magic Eight Ball says Uribe will get hot on May 7th for a week and you should own him then. I also accidentally left my Magic Eight Ball out in the rain and sometimes it reads, “Owlook: Cloudee.” Anyone know a good Magic Eight Ball repair shop? 2015 Projections: 47/10/52/.261/2
33. Casey McGehee – Here’s what I said this offseason, “McGehee was traded to the Giants. With the lose of Sandoval, the Giants got the next best thing. Someone who has watched sumo in person and can replicate it.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 57/6/61/.261/3
34. Cody Asche – Member when I was crazy for Asche last year, calling him a sleeper? You don’t? Good! 2015 Projections: 52/9/54/.248/2
35. Marcus Semien – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Chisenhall. I call this tier, “Semien or Chis sounds like a dirty version of tomato or tomahto.” These guys shouldn’t excite you at 3rd base or corner, until that week when they get hot and you pick them up off waivers. As for Semien, went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
36. Jonathan Schoop – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
37. Yangervis Solarte – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
38. Martin Prado – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
39. Alexi Amarista – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
40. Lonnie Chisenhall – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball.
41. Maikel Franco – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Gallo. I call this tier, “Worth a flyer in keepers.” Sandberg said Asche will try to play 1st base and left field during spring training, which is code for Maikel Franco is going to win a judgment in the landmark case of sooner vs. later. I’ve already given you my Maikel Franco fantasy. It was written originally above my tramp stamp. 2015 Projections: 44/14/48/.248/2
42. Joey Gallo – I already gave you my Joey Gallo fantasy. I wrote it while spiking my hair to look like Richard Blais. 2015 Projections: 27/9/36/.210/2
just noticed, Grey’s got 220 pages full of posts, with each seemingly having 10 per page. If all that’s correct, today’s is his 2200th post! Converting that to one per day that’s 6 years and about 10 days worth. crazy. Happy quack quack 100th!!
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: What the fuck are you yammering about?
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: I counted 2213 posts…i added the posts per day divided by the number of weeks, subtracted the weekends, added the buy/sell on fridays, added an extra three for the stache…so by all accounts your wrong
@JeF With 1 F: clearly neither of us actually counted properly, but i didn’t come in hundreds off either. i just went by the fact that Grey has 220 pages, and the few pages i checked each had 10 total, how you came up hundreds off i have no idea. my 3 off simply meant that out of 220 pages, 3 of them only had 9 (i guess)
@JeF With 1 F: not hundreds, 13 and 3 we were off.
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: If you’re ever curious how many posts an author on here has written, you can click on their name on the article. It’ll take you to their bio and it’ll show the count in bold right below it. Looks like Grey is at 2197 –
https://razzball.com/author/grey-2/
@Sky: 2197 is dedicated/2198 is OCD… Uh-oh
Dont worry; you’ll always be OCD in my eyes, Grey.
Officially tomorrow!
I can’t wait! *erases, types again* I can’t wait! *erases, types again* I can’t wait! *OCD satiated*
Ha!
@Sky: the author link at the bottom of every page will let you know how many every contributer has written.
Yes and it’s also a bit messy. Was just saying if you wanted to know the count of a particular author, click on the name. There needs to be an author archive, let the more recent writers float to the top.
@Sky: my stuff does float to the top
This is why we need to flush that author page…
@Sky: pun point
@Sky: yes, that seems much better than any estimating method. thanks Sky.
@Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: Thanks!
when will Jay’s keeper/dynasty rankings come out?
@Bazzrall: Mike is doing them this year, early Feb
I know yinz have probably answered this question a ton…but I’ll ask one more time…Tomas or Castillo in a dynasty league? Or…just overall talent?
@r aftman: Tomas
Here’s a scalding hot take that arrives at the same answer…Tomas
https://razzball.com/playing-keeps-rusney-castillo-vs-yasmany-tomas/
Thanks, Grey. Loving all the rankings! Keep ’em coming- I’ve got SP questions burning a hole in my pocket…
@Tigres: No problem
Grey,
how do you think the Fowler deal will affect Alcantara’s fantasy value?
@griff:
Hey Griff, I read on the Cubs web-site that Alcantara more than likely will play 3B until the Cubs feel Kris Bryant is ready..
@Orval Overall: @Orval Overall: @Orval Overall:
Did it mention what the plan for Alcantara was after Bryant was called up?
Sounds weird it would be Alcantara at 3B. I’d be more inclined to believe they try Baez there and slide Alcantara over to 2B. Of the two, I think Baez is in more danger of being sent down for some plate discipline training.
@griff: https://razzball.com/top-20-2nd-basemen-2015-fantasy-baseball/
Grey!
Many thanks for this. Great work.
a. Last week, I wrote ‘Grey work’ instead of what I intended – ‘gr8 work’. You know what that means, right? Grey=gr8!
b. It all goes back to that time when I really thought you were Pat Listach, remember? I’d had a dream that you were Pat Listach because I’d seen an ESPN highlight of Altuve hitting a homerun, passing his 3B coach (Listach) and then Listach=mustache and Bob’s your uncle.
c. Having seen recent photos of Pat Listach, I am truly sorry for any untoward pain this may have caused you (or your family by extension).
d. On 3B, looks like it’s the least shallow of all infield positions. Am I right?
e. Where would you target Arenado in a seasonal, 10-team shallow, H2H league? Around round 7 to 10?
Cheers,
Ante
@Ante GALIC: A. Thanks! B. Haha C. Ouch D. See post E. See top 20
What are the chances Yasmany Tomas gets a little seasoning in the minors first??
@luvdarooks: no chance
@luvdarooks: Seems doubtful
Morning Grey,
Looking for your expert opinion on this draft I just completed..
H2H points, 10 teams, I picked 10th…
thank you
Player Position Round Drafted Overall Pick Projected Fantasy Points
Posey, Buster C 9 90 427
Abreu, Jose 1B 3 30 520
Kinsler, Ian 2B 7 70 461.5
Longoria, Evan 3B 4 31 440
Ramirez, Hanley SS 8 71 431.5
McCutchen, Andrew OF 2 11 554.5
Puig, Yasiel OF 5 50 498
Stanton, Giancarlo OF 1 10 566
Pujols, Albert U 6 51 497.5
Archer, Chris P 12 111 429
Cain, Matt P 15 150 414
McHugh, Collin P 10 91 460.5
Peavy, Jake P 16 151 414
Salazar, Danny P 14 131 416.5
Street, Huston P 13 130 418.5
Ventura, Yordano P 11 110 437
Cespedes, Yoenis OF 19 190 404
Marte, Starling OF 17 170 408.5
Polanco, Gregory OF 21 210 398
Bauer, Trevor P 20 191 402.5
Gausman, Kevin P 18 171 426
Richards, Garrett P 22 211 397.5
@Orval Overall: Errr Stanton 10th? MccCutch 11th? Abreu 30th? Puig 50th?? My assessment is that you’re playing against a bunch of schmucks.
@Cram It: Ha…yeah WTF
@Cram It: haha. Out of the top 50 hitters I’ve drafted all 50 of them. Is this good?
@Orval Overall: What Cram said
@Grey: @Grey: thanks for the comments. I should have mentioned it was a MOCK draft!
No problem
@Grey: mock schmucks.
@Orval Overall: yeah, how you came up with calling a mock draft an “expert” draft is funny as hell. I’ll go whoop ass in basketball vs 12 year olds Bosnians now and call it “winning the Olympics” for the U.S.! Then i’ll ask how i did.
Now I’m pumped for Bogaerts. Last winter, when I owned XB as a keeper, the kid came off a strong finish to his first taste of the bigs and helped win a world championship — Grey said something along the lines of he “hasn’t seen anything” that makes him believe Xander will be anything special in 2014.
WHATTTT?! I used many more T’s and punctuation marks. I publicly (in the comments section) called Grey out on his huge whiff. Did he not watch the World Series that year? I thought maybe, as an avid Sox fan, I knew things Grey didn’t. I knew XB was ready to be the top SS in 2014.
Anyway, who can even remember what happened after that, 2014 was so long ago. The point is that Grey’s slight optimism for Bogaerts in ’15 is a good sign.
@Corey: homerism kills fantasy teams…
@beardcrabs:
Red Sox suck…
@Corey: Yup
Morning Gray,
Great post, quick question. You said you wouldn’t want anyone outside your top 9 for your 3B, but Panda has a nice projection for next year, I agree the monster should be a nice advantage. But are you not wanting him since he may be drafted higher than you’d like? Especially now that he’s on the Sox? Thanks,
@Mike Honcho: To me hes just a better post season player that comes up with big hits…not a great fantasy option throughout the season.. descent but not worth reaching for.
@JeF With 1 F: The “better-real-life-hitter-than-fantasy” mold.
@Cram It: Grey may be right about Fenway…but im not touching him….unless he touches me first
@Mike Honcho: Thanks! Panda is a corner infielder for most leagues, not 3B
@Grey: I took it as because he is an I jury risk he is most likely a corner but could end up being a 3rd baseman for you if the change of scenery goes his way. 50% of this game is getting the breaks and being that he is in a better offensive place can lead to those breaks. The advanced stats don’t support it but shizz can miss the fan sometimes. Now where is my first cup of java. Contrary is my idle name
Advanced stats actually do support it, but won’t help his health… He’s a corner because he averages 15 HRs
@Grey: that high average potential always gives him the opportunity to do more and I’m only being contrary because Jay told me I wear that cape well….and why am I wearing a cape in his vision of me?
I hope that is every one of our commentators
JFOH is our everyman
@Sky: and you are our missing link
Gotta remember what you came from
Their non-appointed leader
and their non-commital one (Jack Full Of Hesitance)
Of course
@Sky: hesitance? Really…oh just you wait til phoenix when you’re wasted and I’m driving you around
As long as you’re not wasted too, I’m excited.
@Sky: I don’t get wasted anymore. I stay cool so I can be ready for anything ;-)
Well I can make no promises but I don’t plan on getting bombed. Of course, if Brad Evans invites us all over and breaks out the Fireball, all bets are off.
@Sky: you don’t want to see me all fireballed up with Brad Evans.
@Sky: I’m glad you caught my meatball feed
@Sky: I’d like to think that’s his ode to Curly from “A Plumbing We Will Go”
Nah, it’s just his version of a Saturday
@Sky: What’s he wear on Sunday?
@Big Magoo: that pic is NSFW @Big Magoo: thats NSFW
He’s a line drive hitter, so more doubles, not sure about more HRs
@Grey: but what about the fantasy snafu of talking about better counting stats because he’s in a better offense *shields head*
If he gets 150 games, the stats should be there, but yeah
@Grey: hey someone you know needs to opposite.
Yeah
We must be Eskimolongo brothers!
@Wake Up: Yeah, we are
@Grey: Eskimongo?
Is that the Indian casino in Juneau?
@Grey: HaHa Dix!
It seems that he’s effed us both…so, so many times…isn’t that the thing?
That’s his thing, Haha Dix…
Grey,
Looking at the lists side by side its hard to tell.. which position do you think is deeper? 2B or 3B? If I’m setting my sights on Rendon and making sure I get him, which position should I have him in? How much would you consider too much in an auction, I’m guessing he’ll go somewhere around 25.
@Corey: @Tony Two Bags: 2B is whoreable, play him there…
@Tony Two Bags: Read the post
Doesn’t Headley qualify for that post-post-post sleeper hype award yet again? Feels like him & Lawrie have got to be clones with their annual hype that falls short no matter where they get traded to.
I like Tomas too but I fear with Abreu’s success if he has even a decent spring training the fantasy nerd herd’s going to shoot him up to top 5 territory at this position once again ignoring the other Cuban misses (or miss-iles? see what I did there?) like Cespedes that donkey punched owners last year. But that’s cool, I’ll take a nice consolation prize like Rendon or Arenado should they fall as a result.
@Clint: Headley’s much older… Yup on Tomas
@Clint: it’d be pretty funny if you can actually get arenado or rendon after yes.. many is gone.
Trade 2 years of Trout (Rd 1) for 3 years of Rendon (11th rd) and 2 years of Cole (22nd rd)? 7-keeper 15-team league. Would pick early in 1st round if I make such a trade so would get chance at a someone like Tulo or Cargo.
@kerry: rule #1 — You don’t trade Trout.
@kerry: What Ralph said
But Grey, David Wright is getting jacked. Jacked!
http://nypost.com/2015/01/13/wright-vows-to-make-up-for-last-season-during-intense-training-program/
@Cram It: Id rather have the dude with the Beard in the backround…he seems a bit more intimidating
@JeF With 1 F: You’re talking about who you’d rather have in the bedroom, for your BDSM fantasies. I’m talking about baseball. Get your mind out of the gutter!
@Cram It: Oh i misunderstood what you said..
@Cram It: It’s to fend off Cougars
@Cram It: i wonder if these people would even pretend they should expect to be in playoffs if instead of NY they were in, say Ohio? just cause ATL is now nearing MIA territory doesn’t make LAD/SF/WAS/STL/MIL any worse.
No Matt Dominguez at all? But he hit .215 last season!
@Andrew D: Astros traded for Valbuena
@Grey: Then why isn’t Valbuena on the list? Doesn’t he have to be a better option than Amarista.
They’re platooning, neither are good
Yoooooo Adriaaannnn
Beltre’s days of 30+ dongers is over, but I still think he hits .320 in 2015. Hard to argue that’ll be worth more than who you have in your top 5
Other than Donaldson, that whole group could hit .320 themselves and Josh can still hit 30+ HRs this year with an, albeit arguably, better lineup. Not seeing the stance here to squeeze a 36 YO high contact hitter who’s out of his power prime above these guys. I would say he’s ‘safer feeling’ but it’s pretty hard to bet on an aging star whose ISO has slipped for 4 straight years.
@Sky:
Agreed, maybe I worded that wrong. Top 5 3b is so stacked that there’s no logical argument for Beltre being up there.
So you think he should be lower? I’m still not following.
@Fireball Feliz: @Sky: he’s agreeing that he shouldn’t be top 5, but probably right around where he is, it’s his 2nd sentence.
@Fireball Feliz: I followed…Sky is still thinking about that JFOH pic he posted…
So what I’m gathering from all of this is that I should be pretty freaking happy with this crop of keepers in a ten team keep forever (6 cats w OBP and SLG i/o AVG)
C – open
1B – Freeman
2B – Rendon
3B – Miggy
SS – open
IF – open
Cf – McCutchen
RF – Bruce
LF – Gordon
OF – Springer
Ut – Carlos Gomez
Ut – Rusney
SP – Wainwright
Seems I can grab that IF early in the draft then just pound the pitchers, grabbing Elviscobar or something along the way.
Love the content. Thanks!
@Ralph: Yeah, solid group
@Ralph: Nice team… your league should do OPS instead of OBP and Slugging and put Avg. back in there…
@Big W: why do you say that?
Boldish Prediction: Bryant finishes as Top 10 3B End of Year. Seager’s stats look attainable for Bryant if he is called up May 1st or sooner. Even Longoria’s seem plausible with a May 1 call-up. I’m expecting a debut similar to Stanton’s in 2010. Stanton’s ’10 AA stats are almost identical to Bryant’s ’14 AA stats (Bryant BA better) and Stanton struck out 31% of the time in the majors in ’10, but in 100 games, finished w/ 22 HR and a .259 BA in a pitcher’s park/division. If Bryant gets called up May 1 he will play in 30+ more games than Stanton in ’10 and hit in a hitters stadium/division. I would draft Bryant 15th overall after Zimmerman.
@KB: It’s Evan Longoria, not Even Longoria… Yeah, Bryant could be special, or he could hit .215…
@Grey: I was saying “even” as in “even his (longoria’s) stats seem plausible.” Bryant could definitely suck, so could Tomas, but like you said, 3B looks pretty mediocre, especially if you roster Rendon as 2B and Santana as C and we don’t even know Tomas’ eligibility yet. I guess I am just not excited about any of the “proven” options at the position past Frazier at #8. As someone who kicked himself for missing out on Abreu all last year, I’m with you about worrying about missing out on Tomas being Abreu, but then, for me, the same concern would be missing out on Bryant being Stanton, especially since AA/AAA stats are more translatable/tangible than Cuban stats.
I know, I was kidding… Agreed on Bryant, just worry he might be in the minors until June and then only be comparable to a top 15 3B
@Grey: he should be named Even though, it would be objectively better.
Interested where u have Brantley on the overall ranking, I know u didn’t even post the top OF yet, but I’m excited ?¤?¤?
@the_swinging: Tomorrow
In a keeper league. Can keep six. No time limit on how long a guy can be kept. No salaries or any of that stuff either. Who do I keep … Kris Bryant, Corey Dickerson, or Billy Hamilton?
This decision is killing me. I can’t sleep at night. Please help.
@Eric: Dickerson
@Eric: Oh, and rest easy
5×5 Keep Forever League 12 Team League
I need five keepers from these six, who is the odd one out
Miggy
Kinsler
Price
Frazier
Dickerson
Brantley
Thanks Grey
@Jeffrey A: Kinsler
Wow, Grey. Link game on POINT, and I’m not talkin about golf, yo! I sometimes walk around my house just shouting, “Yangervis Solarte!” because it makes me feel like I’m fluent in Spanish. When my Fiance (<– what an idiot!) is like, "what the frig?" I hand her the outside shell of the Rosetta Stone box I stole from the library. I love baseball season!
Ha! Like a baller! (Fantasy baller)
Pitching question…I know Richards is out until at least mid-May, but I’m tempted by an offer of Richards and Aroldis Chapman for my Kluber and de la Rosa. I like Kluber, but it seems a top closer and a young SP is a nice return. Plus, I still have Kershaw. Your thoughts? Thanks.
Terrible deal
@Jason: SAGNOF!!!!!!!!!!!! don’t be fooled by high end closers!
My league uses a customized % of games played for eligibility. Miggy, Crash Davis and Carlos Santana are only eligible at 1B, David Murphy is only eligible at 2B, and Rendon is only 3B (ouch for 2B).
And we start a Corner Infidel and 2 DH… so yeah… the depth here is notta so gooda! I might have to keep Todd Frazier even though I don’t expect him to repeat.
Luckily we do not start a Middling Infielder (12 teams, started long before the PED purge). No second Catcher and no MI were the best decisions we ever made!!!
I hear ya
Regarding Yasmany Tomas, I would put forth that “Et al” sounds more like a Classical Latin airline than an Israeli airline. Perhaps the primary airline serving Vatican City.
Ha
Hi Grey!! Great column today. Need keeper advice. Can only keep 5 guys in a 6×6 Roto league…thx bud!!!
1) deGrom in 10th
2) D Gordon in 10th
3) Harvey at 11
4) Puig at 12
5) Harper at 15
6) Chapman at 16
7) Cespedes at 17
8) Yelich at 21
Thanks! Not Yelich, Harvey, DeGrom
@Grey: Thank you Sir!!
No problem
hey grey,
would you trade miggy (who costs a 2nd round to keep this year and a first round every year after this year) for any of the following? polanco (22nd), bogaerts (24th), machado (21), yelich(22nd), brantley (17th) (EACH OF THESE GUYS CAN BE KEPT IN THOSE ROUNDS THIS YEAR and THEN MOVE UP 3 ROUNDS EACH YEAR AFTER)
Brantley
I’m calling yasmany tomas, Hazmat Tom because he will be nuclear. This is based on nothing more than my desire to post while I wait for my dad to finish his doctors appointment.
Cuboom! Hope Pops is okay…
@Grey: he has to get his gallbladder taken out. Not fun considering he had the quintuple bypass in Nov 2013.
Ugh, crap… Hope he’s okay
@Grey: the man is a cochroach. Cancer 3 times heart attack with 5 bypass, living with my mother all these years. Raising me, this is a walk in the park…I hope.
cdnsjsjaa*@– Fingers crossed!
@J-FOH: Wow, talk about a tough hombre. Sounds like he could survive a nuclear blast. Hope everything turns out ok.
@Big Magoo: not many like him. Works 6 days a week, and never heard him once complain nor ever even bring up he’s had cancer. Some guys like to wear that like a badge of honor, he’s just like whatever, I’m alive and that’s all.
@J-FOH: His generation has a completely different mindset. The 18-35 year olds today are likely to bitch and whine about a cracked fingernail.
@Big Magoo: you know how many men his age promote that they are survivors? It’s embarrassing. We all go thru stuff, it doesn’t make us special just livin
@J-FOH: hope all goes well Foh. It will. Not to compare your real life stuff to tv, but reminds me of the Breaking Bad episode I happened to watch last night where a guy in the waiting room is talking his ear off about his cancer and Walt tells him hes full of shit, youre in charge and just live your life, thats all. Truer words…
One more for ya…in my keeper league drafting in 5th spot – rank these guys to draft who would be available at 5 overall: (Trout, Kers, Cutch, Goldy, Stant, Miggy, Gomez, Abreu, EE are all gone)
– King Felix
– Adam Jones
– Joey Bats
– Cano
– anyone else you’d draft at 5 not on above ?
Jones, Bats
@Grey: but if I’m already keeping 3 OFs , u still draft Jones over non OF ? Def not Felix or Cano?
I guess, don’t know your league
Great to see Xander (could call him Bogey for short but I wont go there…doh I did!) ranked so high in your SS rankings as a keeper owner. His season was a tale of 3 stories: hot start, shizzcrappy middle and strong finish.
In a 10 team keeper with MI, how many years would you go on him: option year ($6), 2 years ($6) or 3 years ($8)? I have a few other long term keepers also and max of 8, which is why im kinda put off signing him long term. Or is the potential at short too good not to go long term on him.
Also am a Lindor owner on my farm. I know you were high on him going by your sleeper post, is the reason hes ranked so low here simply because of the lack of ABs this year?
3 years…Yes, lack of ABs
you spell unforch with a “t”? weirdo
Yup
“Semien or Chis sounds like a dirty version of tomato or tomahto.”
Ewwwww haha, good one.
Thanks!
I would like to give a big round if applause to big magoo. A quality read yesterday that I suggest you all go take a look at.
Word!
@J-FOH: Thanks! I still want those coupons…
@Big Magoo: I’ve never seen a chik fil a coupon before.
@J-FOH: sometimes they don’t have expiration dates, so when you find then buried under shit after like 5 years it’s not a hassle, which is nice.
@J-FOH: @Big Magoo: Agreed, was a nice read and good info
@J-FOH: Word…good stuff Magoo
@nick the dick: @JeF With 1 F: Thanks guys!
Arenado, Davis, Sandoval, or Roby (Headley, Castellanos). Check. There’s my 3B strategy. Your write-up was much better.
Just watched the TC where Doug was eliminated. Wtf? And Melissa is still there?
Yeah, Doug was a shock…Nick the Dick was reeling for a few weeks on that…. He’ll come back on the Last Chance Kitchen thing, is my guess….
@Grey: I’m obviously a week behind. Melissa just keeps advancing though. I don’t get it. Doug, Adam, and maybe even a few others seem to be better chefs than her.
Yeah, I remember that Doug was Nick’s guy. I like him too. Hopefully he’s still alive. Didn’t Kristen win after going through Last Chance Kitchen?
She did, yeah… I don’t think Dougie’s gonna win, but he has a good chance of returning (I don’t know yet, so not spoiling anything)
@Grey: I don’t think so either, but it’d be nice to see him in the finale. It’s Gregory’s competition to lose.
That’s what I said the first week!
@Big Magoo: ya the loss of the bearded wonder sent me spiraling into a deep depression that only last chance kitchen can dig me out of. Hope he gets back in there, he deserves it. When 3 people botch their proteins, don’t send home the guy who had the nuts to take the biggest risk. Melissa is sooo yawnstipating, I can’t stand that she’s still in there.
@nick the dick: I hear you. Probably shouldn’t have taken that big of a risk on the foie gras, but he deserves to still be there. Hopefully he gets back in, and Melissa gets bumped out. Would make for a solid finale.
Let’s get Carbonaro on there to make his giant gummy bears!
@Mike: yeah buddy! Thatd be magical
Hey I’m going to my pickle client today, you like the Habanero or the spicy garlic?
Spicy garlic! Thanks, homey!
@Grey: check and check
Think Trumbo has 1B elig in 2016?
Unlikely
In honor of MLK Day, and my hangover…
Is it just me or is it ridiculous to only compare Cuban players to other Cuban players? Why would any of these players coming over this year be anything like Abreu, sep for the reason that they can all out breast stroke Diana Nyad…I mean, are we gonna start saying that every Dominican pitcher looks really good…once you get past the murdering of the other people and stuff…he really snaps off the slider…that being said, you ever notice how every player that comes over from Japan is the same?
The lack of professional track records makes it such a crapshoot for Cuban players.
The reality is that Jose Abreu is the only Cuban who performed at a high level without minor-league seasoning. Cespedes was very good but fell off after that first year.
It’s worth noting that Abreu was considered to be the best hitter in Cuba and Cespedes seemed to be very highly regarded. I don’t think anyone is thinking Tomas is in their league.
@Rudy Gamble: gotcha…
@Rudy Gamble: Now find me a writeup about Tomas that doesn’t reference Abreu…
That’s like finding a Hamas writeup that doesn’t reference a Hebrew
@Wake Up: ‘slike people comparing Yasmany Tomas to Marlon Byrd because they look alike (which they really do). They gotta have the same skillset!
25 homer power, low walk rate, high strikeout rate…260ish average…that’s Byrd. I get what you’re saying but to be fair it’s not just comparing physical appearance.
@Mike: yeah I know youre right. Just funny when the first comparisons made are to his doppleganger
haha…they look so much alike it’s kind of creepy :)
@Mike: Ha definitely. I think Gyorko will put up similar stats to Phil Hughes this year too
ha! good one
@nick the dick: that is true to looks.
@nick the dick: Ha!
Haha… I think they’re compared because they all had similar competition before… It’s like comparing a Triple-A hitter to a Triple-A hitter
@Grey: What do you mean by “they all” ???
‘Them people’ better?
@Grey: HaHa Dix!
Hiya Grey and friends
Would you keep the 2nd best 3rd baseman (Rendon, with 2nd base eleg to boot) or the 5th best 1st baseman in Rizzo? I worry about the depth of 2nd base. Thanks.
I’d prolly lean to Rizzo
12 team – normal category – H2H – 5 Keeper League
I have Miggy, Trout, Cano, Pujols, Hamilton, Soler as my top 6. Would it be wise to trade Pujols and Cano for Jose Abreu?
Sure
I don’t like Donaldson that high. He hit 15 HRs in April and May last year with an unsustainable 17+% HR/FB ratio. I remember a lot of those just barely home runs. The ball park change and line up change are favorable, but I think I started to get the sense that the league may have figured him out a bit. He’s hit 53 home runs in the last two years, Longoria has hit 54. And don’t look now but Longoria has played 322 games in the last two years. One of the knocks was always the ability to stay on the field. I’ve been saying this for years, but there’s always value in looking at a maturing player with an injury prone tag who demonstrates an ability to stay on the field. I think of Kinsler as a prime example. He had the injury monkey on his back and then he led MLB in PAs over the course of two seasons in Texas. I like Longoria’s chances to hit above .270 a lot better than Donaldson. I’m also concerned about JDs playing style on the Toronto rug. He’s a balls out guy. In a small sample size he’s hit .222 career at Rogers C. Current NFBC for Donaldson is 25. Longoria is 54. I see no possible profit in a Donaldson pick there. He’ll have to play to last year’s numbers (22 overall final razz rank), which I don’t think he will. Meanwhile Longoria still won’t be 30 this year and he’s a year removed from a 32 homer season.
I feel like we’re moving in different directions… I embraced Donaldson and lose Longo, and you go the opposite way… You pulling the old banana in the tailpipe on me?
@Grey:
It’s kind of like my 3 year old. I put a glass of milk in front of him and his sister and he wants the one in front of his sister. If I switch them then he wants the other one back.
I feel like I don’t know you any more. Calling a Donaldson regression and a Longoria bounce back to 2013 seems like it would have been vintage Albright. I know you like to shoot craps. I feel like your Longoria vibe is similar to developing a bias against a number on the table. “I’ve lost bets on 8 twenty times in a row. I’m never betting on 8 again.” As I always say, “dice don’t know.” Even with your own projections here, I doesn’t seem like there’s a 25+ pick projection gap between JD and Longoria.
Longo’s team also got putrid around him and Donaldson’s team got terrific
@Grey:
The A’s actually scored more runs than the Blue Jays did last year. G. Stanton put together his season last year for a team that scored 85 fewer runs than the next worst team. There have always been good seasons coming from bad teams and good team/ball park are no guarantee of success of course.
@GhostTownSteve:
Longo did go 36 in the FSTA draft from last week. The NFBC ADP is early and tends to be very pitching heavy so may not be as much a bargain on him as I’m building in here. I’d definitely like him in the late 50’s.
Yeah, definitely, but making things harder on himself for Longo and easier for Donaldson… I’m down on Longo compared to others, there’s not going to be the same value as where I’m going to have him (likely)
@Grey:
Betcha a coke Longo out performs Donaldson this year straight up (not factoring pre-season auction value).
Did we have some sort of bet on Segura last year? I think it was a couple of G’s right?
Hmm… I don’t remember that on Segura… Maybe we had a bet on Brantley… Sure, I can bet a coke, but I’ve never drank the stuff…
Hey Grey,
Keeper question. 8 team keeper league head to head points. Keep 15.
Mesoraco, Encarnacion, Rendon 2B/3B, Machado, Baez 2B/SS, Bryce Harper, Heyward, Carlos Gonzalez, Hosmer, Sano, Price, Cueto, Teheran, Lester, Kluber, Wainwright, Taijuan Walker, Paxton & Giolito. What 4 do you drop?
Thanks..
Sano, Taijuan Walker, Paxton & Giolito
Rasmus to the Astros…Luhnow to play him Mondays and/or Thursdays…
Ha, nice
I got no baseball, but did you (or anyone) ever try Little Sheep Hot Pot? There’s one right across the street from the office – just curious as to what it’s like…
It’s a chain? Never heard of it
@Grey: Yeah, a chain. Oh well. As you were.
Send me some!
@Grey: Not sure how well it will travel. Maybe check it out next time you’re in Torrance, San Gabriel, Hacienda Heights, Irvine or Pasadena ;-)
Ah… You’re closer… You check it out and let me know if I should go to those places…
@Grey: I had already assumed the likelihood of you finding yourself in any of those places was less than 5%.
@SteveNZ: Unless perhaps you decide to re-brand Razzball, become stuck for a name and head off on an Erlich-esque voyage of inspiration and self-discovery…
Haha
@SteveNZ: can we skype when I go there next time?
@J-FOH: As long as it’s not the middle of the night. I’m not THAT keen to find out what it’s like…
@SteveNZ: we can find a time when both are open for us and skype as we both eat there
I went to Torrance in December to see Xmas lights (they do a SPECTACULAR!!!), and it was the first time I was there in six years
@Grey: I live close to a few of these locations and could very easily be a stop for you on your way to Palm Srings
Yes, let’s all Skype!
Grey I have been reading your RazzBall for a year now ( only been active in Fantasy for 2 years.) and I feel you Deserve to be in this Draft……..http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2015/01/19/fantasy-411-slow-mock/
Deserve? Suffer through, more like
Auction tidbit. I had saved some 15 team mixed auction analysis. I basically averaged out the prices paid for what correlated to each draft slot (1.1 was highest salary, 1.2 second highest, etc). I then summed the total dollars spent for what would be each round (1-15 first round, 16-30 second round, etc.). I then did the same thing with the actual end o’ year $ values from the Razz rater (changing settings for 15 teamers), taking the top 15 producers and averaging the 1st round, 2nd round etc. In the first 5 rounds the amount spent at auction exceeded the amount of $ value produced per the Razz end ‘o year rater. The 6th round the number was almost identical. In every subsequent round the actual production dollars were greater than the amount spent. Short conclusion, auctioners seem to over pay in the 1st 5-6 rounds and underpay there after. Larger conclusion….not sure yet.
That actually makes sense to me just going off of memory… First few rounds guys go for crazy prices… Then to make up for that, people start to underspend in the middle… It’s why I hardly ever spend over $30 in any auction
@Grey:
On the other hand, right around $15 bucks is where the cross over between the auction values and the actual values of the round starts to cross over, but if you look at the actual players who were auctioned in the mixed LABR for between 15-10 bucks it’s a horror show.
Matt Wieters
Yoenis Cespedes
Mark Trumbo
Curtis Granderson
Carlos Beltran
Alex Cobb
Pedro Alvarez
Brandon Belt
Adam Eaton
Chase Headley
Joe Nathan
Martin Prado
Everth Cabrera
Yadier Molina
Brandon Moss
Jered Weaver
Starlin Castro
Jon Papelbon
Aramis Ramirez
Anibal Sanchez
Glen Perkins
Michael Wacha
Jedd Gyorko
Wilson Ramos
Austin Jackson
Alex Gordon
Gerrit Cole
Wilin Rosario
Julio Teheran
Grant Balfour
Addison Reed
Masahiro Tanaka
Brett Lawrie
Sergio Romo
Steve Cishek
Salvador Perez
Matt Adams
Tony Cingrani
Domonic Brown
Joakim Soria
Rafael Soriano
Jim Johnson
Jon Axford
Asdrubal Cabrera
Jason Castro
Ernesto Frieri
Shelby Miller
Brad Miller
Jason Grilli
Kole Calhoun
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Aroldis Chapman
CoCo Crisp
Brandon Phillips
Sonny Gray
Jim Henderson
Leonys Martin
Billy Butler
Huston Street
Tommy Hunter
Evan Gattis
Shane Victorino
Mat Latos
Aaron Hill
Matt Moore
Nick Swisher
R.A. Dickey
Bobby Parnell
Casey Janssen
Manny Machado
Nelson Cruz
Chris Carter
Christian Yelich
Norichika Aoki
Fernando Rodney
@GhostTownSteve:
Virtually all the breakouts and big values came for 9 bucks or less. So through that lens a stars and scrubs approach seems appealing.
@GhostTownSteve:
sorry for the really long list above
@GhostTownSteve: The Hype Curve is always followed by the downward slide into the Trough of Disillusionment. Always.
@Kid A:
9-5 bucks seems to be where the action is
Ha
Yeah, through a lens of just last year… I will say it kinda makes sense since if you think about a $15-ish player… They’re usually neither here nor there… A $15 player is a guy that you draft because they are safe (no upside) and end up either just what they are or worse
@Grey:
I’ve been doing stuff like this for years though I haven’t been diligent enough to aggregate year over year. But I feel like the findings are pretty consistent. I think what it tells you is how hard you have to fight against the perception of “safe options”. There are no safe options.
Exactly! That’s why I bury ‘safe’ guys
@Grey: and why I use safe words…wait! what are we talking about?
Ha!
@GhostTownSteve: i found this very helpful thanks!
Yikes! Well, I like Leonys… But YIKES
@Grey:
10-15 is definitely a range where people target their 2nd and 3rd tier closers.
Lester, Cueto, Gardner, Rendon, Frazier, Hamels, Lynn, Dozier, Rajai, Arenado, Ross, Samardzija, Minor, Yan Gomes, Kluber, Smiley, Walker, Archer, Springer Dickerson, Wood, VMart, H. Kendrick all went for between 9-5 dollars.
Yup, I could see that, definitely
@GhostTownSteve: i would assume quite a few of those go for more than that in most leagues, i know i would be happy to pay more for most of those for sure (assuming $260 standard budget)
can we do a three way skype lunch with stevenz?
@J-FOH: and thats if its even possible, I have never skyped
Yes please
@Grey: we can get together with Royce and then skype with him, yes these are the things I think about when I’m alone
So Miggy still has 3B eligibility for ESPN? WooooHooooooooooooooooooo!
Who do you prefer in a keeper puig or Upton? I have both, if the get is rendon, does it matter what OFer I move?
Would you deal Frazier for Dozier or Wong?
who wins in a dynasty
Pujols/Ross or Braun/Gausman
Grey, thank you as always for your rankings and insight. As far as the late round fliers go for your 3b ranks, where would Miguel Sano rank, and any particular reasons he may be kept off the end of rankings behind some others? Trading begins in my keeper league soon and I’ve been offered Sano (27th round), trying to gauge his immediate/long term value. Thanks!
Cause he likely won’t be up until Sept
@Grey: Perhaps, but I think him and Gallo are equally advanced. Sano was certainly ahead of him at time of injury, and while I’ll concede the momentum and conditioning etc should be in gallo’s favor at this point I see them as being more even currently than most have deemed them to be. The Sano owner also has Gallo coincidentally, maybe I am the only one who prefers Sano, but there’s less data to draw from on hitters returning from TJ.
This all may be a moot point because Arenado’s owner seems open or a trade without making things rapey, he worth a relative overpay as a 9th round keeper? I like to ask questions I know the answer to…
Yes
I am in a 14 team keeper league that allows for three keepers plus one rookie. Right now, my plan is to keep Freddie Freeman, Max Scherzer, Evan Longoria and Jacob DeGrom as my rookie.
After reading this post (and after owning Longo for four seasons) I’m a little hesitant to wait another year for Longoria to break out. Would it be worth keeping Alex Gordon or Brian Dozier instead? Other fringe options include Lucas Duda and Jayson Werth?
I’d keep Longo… Go to my newest post for followup comments
@Grey:
Will do. I also have to choose between DeGrom vs. Shoemaker vs. Baez as my rookie. I just read your post on Baez and really liked the analogy to Rizzo (I’m a Cubs fan).
Any guidance on which of those rookies I should keep?
@Nathan:
Whoops – the Baez post isn’t actually yours. My apologies.
Trade question – dynasty no years or $… My J Harrison & alcides e for Rosenthal & Gallo. I have Bryant so would consider Joey or others as options to move for a future 2b need. Would like your thoughts. Thanks for the great work as always!