Not your Grandfather’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers…
I’m sure this won’t come as a surprise, but Grandpa-Donk is what they call a “Donk of all trades”. At one point in his legendary life, the venerable jackass even tried his hoof as a weatherman. In fact, he was one of the first weatherdonks on television back in the ’50s.
When I was just a little donkus, no bigger than Trevor Bauer’s poodle, Gramps would gather all us youngins round and tell us about his days of Hollywood stardom. The weather forecasting tools back in his time were just as primitive as the are now, so he was frequently way off on his prognostications. But he always delivered his forecast with the classic family wit, mixing in his token skyarrhea toilet humor and even the occasional dong joke, which was very risque back in his day. Grandonkey would always finish his meteorology tales with one bit of sage advice, “Find an occupation where you can be wrong 90% of the time and people still come back for more”.
Writing the Top 100 Starting Pitchers post in 2019: the year of the juiciest of juiced balls, and baseballs, I imagine is exactly like being a weatherdonkey. Just other day, when The Kooch was getting lit up for the 17th consecutive outing, G-Donk called me up to tell me how proud he was that I had discovered my niche. Actually, he called to ask where he might find a fresh pair of Señor Crappers, but I could sense the pride in his voice.
The only thing we know about 2019 Starting Pitching is there’s going to be lots of rainy days with a few random sunny days mixed in, followed by a tornado which will destroy what’s left of your already fugly ratios. Your 2019 fantasy pitching staff is more or less going to be Seattle with a little bit of Kansas, but we’re all living there in rainy tornado alley with you; so quit your whining and grab an umbrella!
Speaking of umbrellas, Mike Minor has provided a pleasant refugee from the storms this season, and he’s only become sturdier as the summer monsoons set in, sporting a 1.70 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 37 June innings. Unfortunately, there’s some large red regression fairies lurking here, the first of which is a massive and unsustainable 97.5% strand rate over this past month. Pair that with a lucky .200 June BABIP, and Donkey begins running for new shelter. I’d aggressively shop Minor if someone in your league thinks he’s actually a top 20 pitcher, but I wouldn’t sell him for a cup of Grey’s baby gravy. I’ll take a guy that might continue getting lucky over a cup of Grey goo any day.
Some other pitchers I’d want over the sample of Grey’s pancake batter….
Aaron Nola (+8) – It’s taken me 3 months to figure this out, but I finally got there: Aaron Nola is a pitcher we need to be homeschooling. In 66 1/3 home innings this year, Nola now has a 2.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 77 strikeouts. In 29 2/3 road innings, he has a 7.28 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts! With those splits, I wouldn’t even want Nola near the rest of the team on the road. Just leave him at home!
Jose Berrios (+11) – Joey Raspberries has quietly cemented himself as one of the most consistent and reliable starters in the game. Anyone who can go six plus weeks without a major blow up is for sure a sorcerer. The slightly above average strikeouts are really the only thing separating Berrios from fantasy ace territory. Are elite strikeouts his next level of sorcery? I wouldn’t count on it, but a sorcerer’s floor is really high.
Tommy Milone (+44) – I said to grab Tommy Boy Milone before his June 17th start. Since then he’s thrown 16 1/3 innings with a 2.20 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 14 Ks. Basically the only good pitcher in all of baseball as far as I can tell. How bout we just call it even for the whole Kikuchi thing? Oh c’mon! I mean, if you combine Kikuchi’s 91 1/3 innings with those 16 1/3 innings from Milone then I’m pretty sure you have an ERA less than 18.00.
Yusei Kikuchi (-42) – It’s time to buy Kikuchi! Sorry, now I’m just messing with you guys. Kikuchi really can’t be owned in anything less than a 20 team league, or a deep dynasty. Even then, he’s riding the pine for now. Would I rather own Kikuchi or that cup of Grey’s man cream? Coin flip.
Zac Gallen (NA)– Most fantasy folk are hyped about Gallen, and for good reason. His stuff is nasty and the strikeout upside is formidable. Do you sense the ‘but’ coming? The most innings Gallen has throw in any professional season is 147 and he only threw 133 innings last year. Right now, he already sits at 101 innings on the season and there’s very little reason for the Marlins to push him in 2019. I also won’t be surprised if he’s sent back down in the near future.
Elieser Hernandez (+45) – Two weeks ago I said, “It’s interesting that the fantasy community has been abuzz with hype for Elieser’s AAA teammate Zac Gallen, all the while Hernandez was posting video game type numbers himself: 1.13 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 12.94 K/9 across 48 AAA innings this year! Uhhhhh, yep that’s really good! He’s seen a large jump in his swinging strike rate this year, he pitches in a great pitchers park, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s a former Astros prospect. If you’re looking for a deeper name who could blow up (positive or negative) and nobody is talking about, here’s your guy.” And that’s me quoting me! Since then he’s tossed 16 2/3 innings with a 3.24 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts. I’m not sure which of the Marlins youngsters gets sent down once Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez are healthy, but Elieser is making just as good of an argument to stay as the others.
Adbert Alzolay (NA)– We profiled Alzolay on the most recent Fantasy Sausage Pod. Our main reservation was his lack of a rotation spot once Kyle Hendricks returned, but we also speculated that someone else in the Cubs rotation would be hurt sooner rather than later. Sure enough, Cole Hamels has hit the whatever they call it now list with an oblique, and Adbert should remain in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Get Alzolay’d!
Jordan Yamamoto (+41) – We also profiled Yamamoto on the most recent Fantasy Sausage Pod. Have you tried putting the sausage in your ears yet? It feels amazing.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (+1) – I had a discussion with Fantasy Master Lothario about Coors the other night while Ryu was getting clobbered in Colorado. My conclusion was that we’ve reached the point where you can’t start anyone in summer Coors with these helium baseballs. Not deGrom, not Verlander, not Max, not even Uncle Rico. And Uncle Rico could throw it over the mountain back in ’82. I still believe in a healthy Ryu as much as I believe in Uncle Rico. And who doesn’t believe in Uncle Rico?
Dario Agrazal (NA) – This guy was in Game of Thrones, right? No? I’m not actually interested in Agrazal, an older Pirates pitcher, outside of NL-Only leagues and very deep mixed leagues. The truth is, I just like the name. That said, he’s been pretty good in the minors over the past couple seasons, and hardly walks anyone with only 11 free passes thru 79 minor league innings this year. Don’t get too excited now, he was just sent back down and I’m sure there’s some turbulent storms lurking here once he’s back in the majors.
What did you say was in that little cup again?
Blake Snell (-2) – Saturday Donkey: Holy Snell this guy is terrible right now! Like worse than Kikuchi bad! The good news is his velocity is right in line with last year, the K’s are still there, the underlying numbers say he’s been a bit better than his ERA, and we know Snell is capable of being the best pitcher in all of baseball. It’s not without risk, but the buy-low window is wide open.
Sunday Donkey: Bah! The buy-low window just slammed shut on my hoof! Someone call a vet!
Steven Matz (-22) – 7.36 ERA in 29 1/3 June innings? Has Matz been taking pitching lessons from Kikuchi?! I think Mets, I mean Matz, will be useful for another stretch at some point in the 2nd half, but he can’t be owned in shallower leagues right now. Move on.
Jack Flaherty (-7) – I just can’t mutiny against Captain Jack. Everything, including the eye test, tells me he’s a lot better than the 4.75 ERA he sits at today. The strikeout potential is still huge and he’s walking less hitters than last year. His average fastball velocity is also up a full mile per hour from last year. Flaherty is my top buy-low pitcher as we head into the 2nd half.
Anyway, here’s my updated Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2019 Fantasy Baseball:
Injured: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, Luis Severino, Domingo German, Caleb Smith, Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, Pablo Lopez, Spencer Turnbull, Luke Weaver, Jimmy Nelson, Alex Wood, Jonathan Loaisiga, Nate Eovaldi, Jon Duplantier, Jose Urena, Gio Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey, Dylan Covey, Jefry Rodriguez, Jeremy Hellickson, Tyson Ross, Marco Estrada, Danny Salazar, Taijuan Walker, Ryan Borucki, Edinson Volquez
On the Farm: Jesus Luzardo, Alex Reyes, Mitch Keller, Aaron Civale, Framber Valdez, Mike Foltynewicz, Forrest Whitley, Matt Manning, Dario Agrazal, Lucas Sims, Casey Mize, Justus Sheffield, AJ Puk, Jose Suarez, Kyle Wright, Kyle Freeland, Erik Swanson, Tyler Anderson
Out of the Pen: Josh James, Collin McHugh, Carlos Martinez, Freddy Peralta, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Sean Newcomb, Zack Godley, Touki Toussaint, Jared Eickhoff, Aaron Brooks, Derek Holland, Luis Cessa
Suspended: Frankie Montas
Find Donkey Teeth on Twitter @DonkeyTeeth87. Subscribe to his podcast: Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports on Itunes, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts. All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs & Baseball Savant.
Are you starting Gallen this week @ Nats and @ Atl?
Yep, I’d start him most everywhere
Thanks DT!!
No problem!
Thanks for the info! Good to see Elieser get some love. I’m liking all these Jeter-era Marlins pitchers.
I’m staring Logan Allen against SF tonight. Even if he throws well again, would you drop him for Luzardo to stash or just hold?
No problem! I’m with ya on the Marlins, maybe Jeets actually knows what he’s doing! Really hope Elieser isn’t sent down…
I’d keep Allen in roto if he throws well. In H2H Luzardo might be worth a shot if you’re lined up for the playoffs and think you can burn the roster spot for a bit.
Thanks. Yes, it’s H2H so that makes sense.
Sure, good luck!
Hey man, i know its not a SP question, but pick 2 relief pitchers for ROS in h2h format:
– L Hendricks (also own Treinen)
– J Gant
– M Lorenzen
– J Leclrerc
Thanks!!
I’d go Hendriks and Lorenzen, but not a strong preference on the group.
No problem!
Gramp-Donk is a legend!
Domingo German is back to face the Mets on Wednesday. Where would you throw him on this list?
Thanks!
Grandpa Donkey really is the man.
I’d put German around 50-55, he wasn’t looking great before his IL stint so could see him moving quickly in either direction.
No problem!
Should we start Alzolay tonight? He’s on waivers in one of my leagues…. thanks!
I’d start him. No problem!
Oooof rough start to the game for him!
Kyle Hendricks is back tomorrow at Pittsburg. Where does he fit into this list?
I’d put him at 37 just ahead of Darvish
Isn’t German Marquez ranked very high, considering that you can’t start him at home? Could you elaborate on your thinking. Thanks.
Fair point, James. I may have a little bias on Marquez because he’s one of my guys, but my thinking is that he can still be a real ace on the road. If you can get top 10 SP type numbers from him but half the innings maybe this is still a little high…I’m not sure.
I may not have docked Jon Gray enough either.
Godspeed Tyler Skaggs. God bless his family and friends. Terrible news.
Wow, that’s effin crazy
So sad!
Lineups lock in less than an hour 2 road start Gallen @ Wash/ Atl or 2 home start Mahle v Milw/Clev
What the ? RIP Tyler Skaggs
Sorry if I’m late, I’d start Gallen and bench Mahle in most leagues.
Oh wait, these time stamps are pacific time
Gotta drop one Yonny or Heaney? What’s the gut tell ya?
Just acquired Zach wheeler for 5th rd pick next season. We keep 7 guys total so really a 12th rd pick.
Gut tells me to avoid that shady Mexican place I tried for lunch and to lose Heaney unless its a QS league.
Love that deal for you, nice work
It’s quality start k/9 league
I’d give Heaney the edge there
where would you see Luzardo ranked when he come’s up?
I’d have him right behind Gallen if he was called up today
Thanks! Would you trade Gallen and Fried for Paxton in a QS league?
Current staff: Snell, Bieber, Flaherty, Paddack, Canning, Gallen, Fried, Urias
Could pick up Luzardo if i make a deal
Yep, sounds like a great deal for you
Happy Canada day DT
Considering Bauer and Pollock for my Benintendi in a keeper. My pitching keepers right now are Marquez Paddock Ohtani, other OF keepers are Eloy Dahl Rosario.
15 team keep 11…not challenging this year nor is my trade partner. He gets a first round pick as well, I currently have 4
Happy Canada Day to you as well Night pandas
I think Bauer and Benintendi are pretty close but would give the edge to Benintendi. I don’t think Pollock has that much keeper value with 165 players being kept…he’s pretty fringey at this point. I definitely wouldn’t give a draft pick in the deal…
10 tm, H2h with OPS, keep 5, $260 auction budget:
Not exactly a SP question, but if I’m trying to win this year, would you flip a $5 Trea and $5 Yordan for a $42 Trout? I might be able to get some other non-keepers in the deal too to help this year. Typing that out seems like a no-brainer but it pains me to give up Trea even if he’s not hitting right now. My team is pretty stacked with cheap keepers so I could easily find another worthwhile keeper, but it’s just so hard to find a SB wiz that also doesn’t kill you in OPS. Trout would be $50 next year which is a viable yet expensive keeper option as well (and I plan to probably keep Yelich at $49 as well). Other keeper worthy guys are Albombso $1, Baez $17, Rhys $5, Scherzer $12, Riley $5, Mondesi $29, Bieber $13, Gallen $5…
Yes, I get the dilemma but I’d want Trout there and I’d probably keep him. The shallower the league, the more valuable he is….
Ended up trading Rhys $5, Yordan $5, and Gallen $5 for Trout $42, Khris Davis $39 (not a keeper), and Strasburg $17 (not a keeper). Pretty happy for this year and beyond; hoping Davis gets his act together and can launch some bombs in the 2nd half.
Love that deal for you!
Hey DT
Would u drop any of Gallen, D German , luzardo , Glasnow or Caleb Smith for Flaherty?
german hasn’t really been good since mid April
luzardo is probably getting more hype than is warranted
glasnow is not a sure thing ros
any of those guys
I like Flahrety to have a good 2nd half
Hey Murph,
I’d lose Glasnow for Flaherty
Where would Celeb Smith fit in once he’s back?
Right in your pie hole
hot take
#32
After this start from Adbert Alzolay would you drop him for Dakota Hudson
both just streamers
I’d give Alzolay another chance. Slappy might be right if it’s a shallow league, but I’d still hold Alzolay for now even in shallow leagues because of his upside…
I’ve been getting a good return with John Means. I get it, his stuff isn’t dazzling and the xFIP over 5 spells doom, but I still have a lot confidence in the guy. He has earned his All Star bid in my book.
One guy I’m looking at adding whose numbers are really close to Means is Eric Lauer. In fact, if you take the two starts in Coors away you seeing him with an era around 3.45.
What are your thoughts of where these two might end up rest of the season. Is there a good chance both could end up top 50?
I actually like Lauer, he has a couple of good pitches and has a good home park
I can’t say the same for Means but, I would consider using him if desperate
I doubt either will be top 50 ROS but they’re both good options in the right matchups. Means has been incredibly consistent lately but I agree there’s some regression coming. Top 100 seems likely for both.
14-team 5×5 QS roto
Drop
1-2 SP
or
1 SP and 1 RP.
SP: Fried, Keuchel, Porcello, Elieser Hernandez, Alzolay
RP: Hand, Hendriks, Oberg, Kelley
drop porcello and alzolay
I’d lose Porcello and Oberg
Strasburg too low buuuddddyyyy *said like Pauly Shore*
also, I often use the Uncle Rico reference, glad I’m not the only one
cheers
Uncle Rico!
Ok, let me hear your Strasburg argument. He was brutal all of June and it’s only a matter of time before he’s hurt. #20 feels generous to me…
What’s crazy is I look at this top 100 list, then look at my staff:
Bauer, Flaherty, Bieber, Marquez, Paddack, Lynn, Gallen, Domingo German
And my pitching has still been a grind week in and week out in my H2H league. With the way pitching is this year half of those guys have good weeks and the other half average 7ER a start
H2H is a fickle mistress!
Keep grinding.
Very interesting assessment on Jack Flaherty. I’m torn over him. He seems so much better than what he’s been able to accomplish this season. I want to believe but I’m having a hard time trusting Jack any more.
So, with that in mind, do you start him both games this week? Or you do sit him for the Mariners, then start him Sunday against the Giants?
I understand, it’s been frustrating. I’d start him for both though.
Thanks. Yeah, I think I’m going to start him both. Appreciate your opinion. Scary, though, considering only six teams in all of baseball have scored more runs than the Mariners. I’m not sure ole Jack will be of much use but we’ll see.
Yeah, I should have gone with my gut instinct. I started Mr. Flaherty and he promptly got his ass kicked.
I think Mr. Flaherty, moving forward, is a matchups play only. Maybe he’ll get himself straightened out. But I’m not starting him against good competition any more for a while.
Have to agree for the time being
Thanks!
Whos the drop for Eovaldi? Pivetta, Peacock, Heaney?
Pivetta
No love for Dylan Cease? Where would he slide in? Is he comparable to any one else?
Great read. Good stuff, man!
I have love for Cease. Let’s slot him at the back of that rookie grouping behind McKay at #42, he hasn’t been dominant at AAA this year and rookie pitchers….
He has a really good fastball and curve. I’ve seen him comp’d to Dwight Gooden actually.
Thanks!
Would u pick up cease in H2H? Who should I drop
Arrieta
Heaney
Anibal Sanchez
I’d grab Cease over Arrieta
Ha, Grandpa Donk!! I see Grandpa Donk and I am all in, we need more Grandpa Donk, drinking preferences, military service, culinary favorites? Did he drive a car like a boat Cadillac or a cool old truck with his fishing gear in the bed?! I bet he had a bad ass work shop.
I had a few comments in the past tense mistakenly, Hope the old Donk lives forever….to quote my favorite movie “Heroes live forever, but legends never die..” Long live the senor crappers!!
Coffee hasn’t kicked in, please excuse my blasphemy on the quote, should have read ” Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die.”
Yes, G-Donk is alive and well…as are the Señor Crappers
Don’t worry, there’s at least 3 more months left for you to learn everything you want to know about Grandpa Donk. I’ll try to work in some info regarding your curiousities.
That’s awesome !!!!!
You take that Baby Gravy and enjoy it!
Why is this gravy so salty!?
Trade help, please!
I’m in a 10-team league where each team can keep up to 8 players without penalty. Scoring is h2h categories. See below for my current roster. I starred the players that I currently plan on keeping.
C – Contreras
1b – Abreu
2b – Scooter
3b – Bregman*
CI – Bryant*
MI – Machado*
OF – Acuna*
OF – Dahl
OF – Eloy*
OF – Marte
U – Ohtani
Bench bats – McNeil, Yordan
IL bats – Mondesi*, Correa*
P – Sale*
P – Flaherty
P – Tanaka
P – Woodruff
P – Greinke
P – Kimbrel
P – Holland
P – Pressly
Bench arms – Wheeler, Leclerc, Darvish, Marquez, Gant, Luzardo, Stripling
IL arms – Treinen
Trade offer is… his Juan Soto and Lucchesi
for my Eloy, Yordan, and Scooter
Thoughts?
Since I can only keep 1 of Eloy and Jordan, I figured that I could move them for Soto, who I consider to be an upgrade. McNeil has been great and has some versatility, so figured I could roll with him as my 2b, especially when I have Correa and Mondesi in my lineup.
Looks like a good plan to me
ROS d German or Heaney? Gotta drop one. Acquires German Marquez and Zach wheeler
K/9 QS
They’re close but lean German
Keeper league, my Nola for his Severino and Glasnow ?
My season is in the tank….
How do your keepers work?
Only keep 6. I’m planning to keep goldschmidt, Lindor, JD, Bieber, Nola and Corbin…
so Glasnow and Severino would become keepers to replace Nola and… Corbin?
I’d hold what you have
Would you drop Gallen for C. smith?
Yep
Drop Luchessi for Captian Jack? Other starters are
Scherzer
DeGrom
Bauer
Corbin
I’d want Flaherty, I trust he’ll work thru this
Hey DT
Would like to add a streamer. Wondering who would be the drop of Elias, Pivetta, Peacock? I see that you have Pivetta pretty far down in your rankings so Im guessing you will say him. Peacock is on my DL so I could always drop him and replace him with C.Smith, Lamet, or Salazar as well.
On a sidenote, would you roll out Pivetta tonight @ ATL?
Sorry I’m late, hopefully you benched him. I’d lose Pivetta for a streamer and Peacock for Caleb Smith.