Weekend warriors assemble!!! We’re back for another jumbo 14 game main slate on FanDuel, which features Coors and only one SP over $10,000 in Gerrit Cole ($10,500). One of my favorite pitchers on tonight’s slate is Zach Eflin who comes in at $8,500. First of all, the Padres are not good; 29th in wOBA and dead last in ISO and K% vs RHP. Second, Eflin has been really good this year, limiting hard contact to 29%, and gets a nice park upgrade pitching in Petco. Finally, I’m going to implement a little NBA/NHL travel factor. The Padres played yesterday in Milwaukee, so they’re flying back to San Diego (am I the only one who hears Ron Burgundy’s voice??) for Friday’s game. Meanwhile, the Phillies had the day off on Thursday. I really like Eflin for Friday’s match-up. Let’s take a look at the rest of Friday’s slate.
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Gerrit Cole, SP: $10,500 – Stud. 35% K%, and 8 or more Ks in his last 5 games. I don’t love the match-up with Seattle, which sports the 5th best K% vs RHPs, but I believe Cole has the stuff to get the job done.
Zack Wheeler, SP: $9,400 – Wheeler faces Miami, who sports the 4th worst wOBA and 2nd worst ISO vs RHP.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $8,700 – Eovaldi faces the Orioles. Sooooooooo, I wanted to include super awesome stats that show you how bad the Orioles have been since they traded Machado, but they’ve actually improved in K%, wOBA, and ISO. However, Eovaldi’s been really good, sporting QSs in 7 of his last 8 starts.
Jose Urena, SP: $6,000 – Okay, hear me out here. A) I don’t think Urena will be the worst. B) The Mets…..well, the Mets aren’t great. Urena’s been solid at home and I think he should be good for 23-30 FanDuel points, and his price allows you to get in whatever bats you want. This is a pure GPP play, but if the bats pop, Urena could be the key to a slate winner.
Yankees Bats – The Yankees have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate, edging close to 5.5. They face Texas LHP Mike Minor, who’s allowed an ISO of .225 and wOBA of .336 (both above average) to RHB. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,900) crushes LHP to a tune of .352 ISO and .464 wOBA, both of which rank him in the top 10 vs LHP. Stanton’s certainly expensive, but he’s also a player I’m comfortable with building my team around today. I usually don’t go into BVP, but Stanton is also 7/21 vs Minor with 4 HRs, 8 BBs, and only 5 Ks…..that’s just bonus points there. The other Yankees’ bats that I really like tonight are Aaron Hicks ($3,900), Gleyber Torres ($3,900), and Miguel Andujar ($3,600). Hicks should bat lead-off Friday, and absolutely mashes lefties with a .337 ISO and .388 wOBA. After spending most of the year buried in the batting order, Torres (.278 ISO, .405 wOBA) and Andujar (.245 ISO, .345 wOBA) have finally moved up in the lineup and should both be in the top 5 of the order.
Red Sox Bats – Orioles’ SP Dylan Bundy has had a pretty meh year. Both sides of the plate have hit him pretty har and a date with the Red Sox is not going to help that out. The top 6 in this Red Sox lineup, Mookie Betts ($5,100), Andrew Benintendi ($4,300), J.D. Martinez ($5,200), Mitch Moreland ($3,500), Xander Bogaerts ($3,800), and Rafael Devers ($3,200) all sport ISOs > .214 and wOBAs > .344 vs RHPs. I favor the LHBs slightly here, mostly based on value/money saved, but I’m never going to say no to Mookie or JD in my lineup.
Matt Carpenter, 1B: $4,700 – I had completely dismissed Carpenter during his early season struggles, but man, I could not have been more wrong. May 15th was the low point, when he sported a .089! AVG and .207 wOBA (major league average is around .316). After what can only be described as the absolute tear that he’s been on, he currently sits at a .281 AVG and .410 wOBA. And Burch Smith struggles vs LHBs, which to me makes Carpenter another player to build a lineup around today.
Matt Olson, 1B: $3,000 – Love when I can get a double-dong upside player at this price. His .256 ISO and .356 wOBA vs RHP go well with Felix Pena‘s .197 ISO and .371 wOBA vs LHBs.
Francisco Cervelli, C: $2,600 – I like Cervelli or Elias Diaz, whichever starts, as a cheap punt play that will be low owned and both mash LHP.
C.J. Cron, 1B: $2,800 – Marco Estrada has pitched pretty well of late, but still has allowed a .239 ISO and .354 wOBA to RHBs. Estrada has been a reverse splits guy for his entire career, and Cron’s hit 17 of his 22 HRs vs RHP.
Travis Shaw, 2B: $3,500 – Another spot I like tonight is the Brewers’ bats vs Kevin Gausman. Gausman’s been hit relatively hard vs both sides of the plate and I really like Shaw’s power upside now that he’s 2B on FanDuel.
Whit Merrifield, 2B: $3,500 – Mashes LHP (.410 wOBA) and Austin Gomber (Goober?) strikes fear in the hearts of no one.
Yoan Moncada, 2B: $3,100 – I really liked Shane Bieber and his anti-BB ways when he got the call up, however, lefties have absolutely crushed Bieber (.242 ISO, .399 wOBA). Moncada, a switch hitter, has been much better from the left side of the plate this year and I love the double threat of HRs and SBs that he brings to the table.
Jed Lowrie, 2B: $2,900 – Apparently, 2B is chock full of nice options. See Matt Olson for Felix Pena numbers.
Daniel Descalso, 2B: $2,400 – With so many other options at 2B today, I don’t think you have to go here, but Descalso has been really good vs RHP. And to be honest, this is more about how terrible Anthony DeSclafani has been vs LHBs (.400!!!! ISO, .410 wOBA).
Eduardo Escobar, 3B: $3,800 – See Daniel Descalso for anti-DeSclafani vs LHBs.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $3,700 – This is my BOY! I was all over Suarez coming into the year, and he’s put all my teams on his back. D-Backs SP Clay Buchholz has been decent, but has always sported reverse splits throughout his career. Guess who has a .254 ISO and .371 wOBA vs RHP??
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,500 – See Travis Shaw.
Jorge Polanco, SS: $2,500 – Polanco continues to be too cheap at a premium position. Limited sample size, but Polanco’s triple slash vs RHP is .346/.442/.494.
David Peralta, $3,800 – See Daniel Descalso for anti-DeSclafani vs LHBs. Also, this Arizona mini-stack might be my favorite sneaky stack. I think a lot of ownership tonight will focus on Coors, Yankees, and Red Sox, so this pivot should put you in a really nice spot.
Daniel Palka, OF: $2,800 – Palka’s got a lot of pop (.277 ISO) vs RHP and that’s where Bieber hops on that struggle bus. Two tickets to dong-town please.
Nick Williams, OF: $2,700 – Cheap bat sporting a .219 ISO and .345 wOBA vs RHP and faces a guy in Jacob Nix having his major league debut.
Nick Martini, OF: $2,400 – Who doesn’t want a Martini to lead off the weekend? Martini should lead off (see what I did there??) vs the RHP and should help you fit those pricey bats in your lineup.
Coors Bats: This is a fade for me today. Jon Gray has been soooooooooooooo good recently, while Kenta Maeda has been decent and has a great track record in Coors (24 IP, 26 Ks, 3.00 ERA).
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Only potential rain spot is in Atlanta, where there’s a 50% chance of thunderstorms. No strong wind, so I’m going to introduce you to what humidity does to the baseball. So you might think that a ball would go farther on a dry day than on a humid day. But for every water molecule that we add to the air, we displace a heavier nitrogen or oxygen molecule. Since the addition of humidity actually makes the air less dense, a ball will go farther on a humid day than it will on a dry day. Taking that into account, Cincinnati/D-Backs, Atlanta/Brewers, and White Sox/Indians all have 70% humidity, which should create great hitting conditions. While I wouldn’t use this to target hitters, I feel its a great tie-breaker if you’re between similar players.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Pretty interesting slate which features 9 home-dogs out of the 14 games. The biggest favorites are Houston (-216), Yankees (-200), and Boston (-178), which should give a little boost to their SPs for the chance of the W. I think the Phillies as a -128 favorite are a really solid bet. The Padres are rolling out Jacob Nix for his first MLB start, oh, and they’re 25 games under .500. With Coors on the slate, the Rockies/Dodgers have the highest total at 10.5; however, the pitching match-up of Jon Gray vs Kenta Maeda scares me, so I lean towards the under.
