Road trip!  Everyone pile in to the Razz van as we head to the dirty south.  Hrm, that makes it sound like I’m suggesting you go below the equator on someone who needs a bath or a ‘shot’, so let’s correct this: The Dirty South.  There, that’s better.  We all know the Atlanta Braves are bad but really, they can be worse than even their season stats suggest.  Wanna know how?  Throw a lefty arm out at them.  I hear what you’re saying, ‘how bad can they get?’  I got really good hearing, what can I say?  Well I’ll tell you: they can get 46 wRC+ bad.  Sure, you could say they’re due for some positive regression and I wouldn’t argue it but this same team was third worst in wRC+ last year against southpaws at 77 so this isn’t a new trend.  The new trend we all savor here on DK is the Ks.  Last year, it was a menial 20.5% K rate against lefties but this year, the bottom has dropped out and the #Barves are only second to the Padres in whiffing futility with a huge 26% clip.  But hey, that’s what happens when your second best hitter against southpaws is Jeff Francoeur.  So with that, I introduce Adam Morgan.  He’s a lefty…the end!  Fo’really, this is just to see if a perfect situation pans out at a low end $5,500 price.  He K’d 7 over 5 IP against the Indians who struggle just a little less against southpaws but still struggle mightily.  Because of the matchup, Adam has 10 K upside which brings 10K upside to your bank account.  So feel free to join in with my enjoyment of some Captain Morgan while we ease into covering the rest of the slate.  With that, let’s do this.  Here’s my Flaming Dr. Pepper hot taeks for this Tuesday DK slate…

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Drew Smyly, SP: $10,500 – Until deGrom shows me he’s deShizz, I ain’t rostering him.  Until then, I’ll take The Emoticon who’s K’ing 10+ per 9 and has a 34.1% K-BB% ratio against lefty bats and gets a lefty heavy Mariners lineup.  This has eggplant emoji written all over it.

Kyle Hendricks, SP: $8,800 – Cash game play o’ the day.  When you face the Padres, you face 10 K upside and when you’re the Cubs, you also have a strong shot at the win.  And if somehow Hendricks Mr. Bungles this, well, I hate you more than Cartman does, Kyle.

Jon Lester, SP: $12,200 – Why you gotta do me like this, Cubbies?  You sure held your breath on this call until it was a little too late for a clean fix.  Thanks a lot!  Padres = Strikeouts.  I shall call them the Pad-Ks.

Kevin Gausman, SP: $8,200 – Is Gausman breaking out or did the Yankees just have bad gas last time out?  This should be a proving point as the Twins still ain’t much good against righties or in general.  Generous ballpark and Ks available up and down the lineup.  I’m intrigued for tourneys but not so interested in cash.

Joe Ross, SP: $7,700 – In full truthfulness, Ross was almost my lead.  Ross is sickeningly good against righties and the best lefty bat Detroit has is Anthony Gose.  Guffaw with me!  Should be a popular pitcher for the night.  Pair Hendricks Lester with Ross and enjoy all the cash.

Juan Nicasio, SP: $6,300 – You’ll find no safety nor consistency here but Nicasio against a right hand heavy lineup could pay dividends.  If Nicasio can avoid damage against Votto and Bruce, he could be in line for tons of Ks and a win.  You’re the Juan that I want, Nicasio…at least in tourneys.

Jonathan Lucroy, C: $3,400 – Where’s the boeuf, you ask?  You know Welington Castillo is a good play, let’s not waste each other’s time.  Coors is a place to look for runs, so now that we know what we already know, let’s see what we’re missing around it.  I’m not one of those to be enamored by Adam Conley and for that reason, I’m strongly considering the Brewers to be one of my two big stacks for the night outside of Colorado.  Though Vegas has pegged Adam as the favorite down in Miami, they’ve also given the game an 8.5 O/U.  Not the biggest vote of confidence, IMHO.  There are a lot of good righty bats going for the Brew crew tonight so count me in on some action surrounding Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, and even Aaron Hill if you’re looking for a cheap get.

Curt Casali, C: $2,800 – Speaking of stacks, Rays against a lefty is still a thing, even with all the struggles this year.  Throwing Logan Forsythe, Steve Pearce, Evan Longoria, and Steven Souza at Wade Miley isn’t the worst thing to do on a Coors night likely to give you low ownership levels.

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B:$4,200 – Apparently I’m just a fan of the unheralded play today.  Matt Cain or Jake Peavy…you tell me.  Nothing special going on in San Fran with the back end of the rotation as Cain should be serving bird seed for a nice Parrot Trot.

John Jaso, 1B: $3,900 – Alredo Simon is well known for his horrid splits and we all know GABP doesn’t help.  A little too pricey for what his likely line is but there’s bomb potential here so consider this a tourney get and consider Gregory Polanco while you’re at it.

Chris Coghlan, 2B/3B: $3,400 – With all the day to day issues hitting the Oakland infield, it puts Chris back into play.  Given he’s been an all or nothing hitter so far, I wouldn’t touch in cash no matter where he’s batting but he’s a Coghlan in the wheel of a successful tourney team.

Tommy La Stella, 2B/3b: $3,000 – If it’s not clear, I’m looking for a cheap get at 2B.  With how well Javier Baez is playing, it’s doubtful we see La Stella, but I’m hopeful Maddon will play the splits against Rea despite the data suggesting he’s a reverse splits kind of guy.  Tommy can you hear me?

Manny Machado, 3B/SS: $4,900 – No park can contain this man.  Throw in a struggling rookie in Berrios and we could be talking about Manny being Manny…not that Manny, this Manny.  The one who is hitting HRs and isn’t retired.

Derek Dietrich, 2B/3B: $3,300 – I’m gonna keep mentioning how much I like double Ds until we see Derek near to $4K.  There’s nothing to fear about the Brewers pitching staff and Dietrich has been known to bat leadoff when a righty is on the mound.  It’s like Don Mattingly forlornly puts Dee Gordon at 1 and prays he shows up to the ballpark despite the evidence.  Don’t matter to me, I’ll take my 5 ABs from a sub-3.5K guy all day.

Carlos Correa, SS: $4,300 – If Trevor Bauer is the the Bauer we know, he’s bound to give up a few bombs.  After a late April slumber, Correa’s bat has come back alive.  So follow me as we head down to the OK Correa for a day.

Javier Baez, 3B/SS: $3,100 – I’m hedging a bit here, I know, as it’s doubtful we see both La Stella and Baez in the lineup at the same time.  Baez is still that hyped prospect from 2013, albeit with some shine taken off.  The bat speed is still there and so is the power.  Just like his Great Grandma Joan sang, ‘We Shall Overswing’.

Avisail Garcia, OF: $3,900 – Over his last ten games, Avi is averaging 12 DK points a game and while you weren’t looking, he went from a sub .200 hitter to a .272 hitter.  Tonight he gets a lefty in Derek Holland that is at best league average.  The Avisail love was just a year early, but it’s looking like it was warranted.

Kole Calhoun, OF: $3,900 – The Angels team is the train wreck we all knew they’d be heading into the season or else I’d suggest a stack against such a fluffy matchup as Mike Leake.  However, the only lefty worth his weight in grit on this team is Kole so I’ll take the one off potential bomb here in Los Angeles of Anaheim.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

Looks like we could be dealing with some massive weather issues in the CINvsPIT tilt as rain and thunderstorms are projected during and after the start of the game.  We also have some similar threats for TEXvsCWS so stay woke, fam, and be on your twitter closer to game time to suss it all out.

Doing Lines In Vegas

It should come as no surprise that Lester and his Cubbies sit atop the throne today with a -260 line for the day.  Easy play in cash, easy fade in tourneys.  The next closest would be Adam Conley and Joe Ross sitting at -160, respectively.  However, MIAvsMIL has an 8.5 o/u while WASvsDET has an 8.  Things that make you go hrmm…as you know, I’m still on board with Joe but I’m not going Conley since this is his second go against Milwaukee this season and he already bested them once and will have all eyes on him to begin with for it.  If you’re looking for safety in lack of numbers, SEAvsTB along with NYYvsKC sit at the bottom of the run pile with a 7 o/u with Colorado of course being tops at 11 for the COLvsARZ tilt.  Admittedly, seeing the low O/U and the line does make me kinda get interested in Masahiro Tanaka, but it’s just rare I find myself rostering him.  I’m just pointing out I might have blinders on here.  Unfortch, the two games with threats of rain and thunderstorms are the second highest O/U of the day with CINvsPIT at 9 and TEXvsCWS at 9.5.  I hate being forced into playing Coors, but it might be such a day, though it’s worth mentioning BOSvsOAK is also at 9.5 for the day.

 
  1. Piranhaman says:
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    very good article :) However, Hendricks not for tonight. Lester will start.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      That change happened this morning, then. Even checked mlb odds and it had Hendricks up to about 2 hours ago. Edit coming!

  2. Cram It says:
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    *Stacks Atlanta lineup*

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      That’s a classic ‘cutting off your nose to spite your face’ moment right there.

      • Cram It says:
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        @Sky: I call it the Ol’ F.S. (Fade Sky).

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Sounds more like an F.Y. The F is still a four letter word and the Y stands for ‘Yourself’.

          • Cram It says:
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            @Sky: Haha. I can always count on you for some juiced up trash-talking.

            I need a Morgan-bomb more so for the sake of Wisler.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              I thought you might like that! Morgan is looking more and more chalky for DFS today. Wisler might be the play for that reason alone.

              • Cram It says:
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                @Sky: I haven’t DFS’d yet this year. How do you know how popular a guy is? They show you a start% or something? Or I remember you said you listened to DFS podcasts…which is insane to me. But that’s your milieu.

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  On days where I have time – i.e. no meetings – I’ll listen in on Grinders live content while I work on SQL scripts. They have about 10 different people cycle through with their takes. I kinda treat listening to them like a word cloud where the guy I hear the most is most likely on the tip of everyone else’s tongue for the day. Morgan is getting talked up big time today. It’s a great way to see where most people are likely leaning. Adam Conley is also someone people are enamored with today. Since I was already off him, that’s an easy fade for me.

  3. WillisReid says:
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    I’m going Morgan today. Do you like Eikhoff tomorrow? Seems negligent not to pick on the Braves at home.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Picking on Braves anywhere right now is a moral imperative.

  4. Teddy Heater says:
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    Solid matchups for SP’s today. I’m liking Gausman, great break down on Morgan.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Thanks Ted! Gausman I’m not entirely sold on yet but might like him more and more as the day rolls along. He’s getting looked over a bit more than I expected at this point.

      • Teddy Heater says:
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        @Sky: You worried about Morgan only going 4-5 innings?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          He threw 97 his first start, 70 cuz he got BABIP’d to death in one inning in his second start. There’s no cap going on from what I’m seeing.

          • Teddy Heater says:
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            @Sky: Werd!

  5. booya says:
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    12 team 5×5 dynasty which side would you want:
    Strasburg, Welly Castillo & Manny Margot or Franco, Aaron Sanchez & Kevin Pillar?

    Thanks guys!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Stras side

  6. banana says:
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    You’d be fine pairing Morgan and Lester in a 50/50, I’d take it?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      It’s a good way to get Coors exposure into your cash games. Morgan will be higher owned than normal in 50/50s so you’re not exposing yourself too much. Go for it.

      • banana says:
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        @Sky: Though might need to switch to Ross with Miggy out today.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          That’s actually one extra lefty for Ross to face and a good one…not sure how Miggy being out is the plus in this scenario. Either way, Ross should still have a fine day, Morgan is just cheaper.

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