Welcome to the bi-monthly look at nose picking. Nah, I am obviously talking about bullpens, because they usually come in second to the nose goblins anyways. Lots of people always ask me: How do you shuffle between holds guys and get an effective return? First off, if you wanna surf the waiver trend and stream the hell out of relievers for holds purposes, you gotta be aware that you can’t be afraid to let your ratios go to pot. Not like move to Colorado and play Bohemian drums and stuff, just the trends that I have encountered and noticed is that with the quantity in holds there comes a slight tick to ERA and WHIP. Not an awful turn of events, if you you have sufficient starters that hold down the metrics. I don’t even know if metrics was the right word there, but I just saw a commercial for a tutoring service for kids… ummm, its summer. So back to the picking a winner lede discussion… When in doubt, pick a winner, four of the top-five hold accumulating teams are in first place. Six out of the top-10. I wish I can make the cliche statement that bullpens win games and have it be unique and quirky and new, but quality bullpens don’t not hurt your teams chance at winning. So if you are looking at streaming or even in the business for flip-flopping relievers in this high holy season of the All Star break, ask yourself two questions; how has he done over the last two weeks, and is his team scoring enough runs for the quantity? Because any good reliever needs to be worth the squeeze. And it doesn’t hurt to be a front-running team. So choose wisely, and for all intents and purposes hit me up. Never hurts to ask the guy who sleeps in bullpen pajamas. More bits of tid after the jump, cheers!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Please see our player page for Juan Nicasio to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.
The news that Hunter Strickland has fallen down and needs a time out for punching a door has sent a reliever ripple effect down the closer ranks. Since this is the Holds week and this is the most pertinent info going, I figured we would roll with anyways. So roll with the suspenseful animation of holds love and glory for a little bit, and while you are at it, temper your expectations of reliever-dom as we dive into the Giants reliever sitch. So Strickland got all mad, punched a door, broke his hand. The Giants are not short of ex-closers that have had time in the limelight. Sam Dyson gets the first look as expected, because Mark Melancon is not ready for prime time… yet. Dyson got the first save chance, nice! Smooth sailing. Then on Thursday? Yaks up 2 runs and gets yanked for a guy I just brought to light in Reyes Moronta. The story isn’t that intriguing as I wish there was some Usual Suspects twist where Mark Melancon was Bruce Bochy all along and he just uses the nickname ‘Verbal’ from his me-ma. Dyson seems to be the guy, until the trust level is at a reasonable level of fortitude for the previous 52 million dollar man in Melancon. The Giants aren’t going anywhere fast, so involving assets of tradeability like MM and Dyson are a boon to not only your fantasy team, but real life baseball. So the Giants may start to implore an Oprah approach to saves. You get a save, and you get a save, and you get a save! The save chase is great and fun until you are on the losing end of it. So enjoy the stat heist that you may have with Dyson, soon to be Melancon, and eventually everyone. More saves and holds goodies after the bump. Cheers!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Choosing the right closer is hard enough when there is only one to choose on draft day. Tons of factors to guide your hand… Jump forward 50-plus games and when the situation has multiple faces and not a ton of situations from which to choose: is it worth the squeeze? The White Sox closer situation has gone from one, to a few, and back again multiple times this year, and now it has swung back to Joakim Soria after garnering the last two saves. The conundrum here is that Nate Jones had gotten the previous three save chances. Than if you scroll the calendar even farther, Jace Fry got a save and retread Bruce Rondon also factored in on one occasion in mid-May. So with a team that only has 13 saves all year, better than only one other team, the Marlins (who are a complete and utter disaster for saves). So when chasing saves, and we all do it, even you, the guy who can’t make eye contact way in the back… It is part of the FAAB chase and the most alluring I might add and frequent drain of funds. So with a team that has flip-flopped three times in 50 games, with 13 saves and on pace for a MLB bottom-three in save chances, is it worth the headache of this guy or that guy? I wanna root for the Mexecutioner, and some guy named Nate, but they are basically like part-time lovers, and I would rather stream the spot with great counting stats that matter. Soria’s K/9 is in the mid-10’s which is admirable, but on a game-to-game basis, the save chase comes down to volume, not the here and now. Yes, Soria should be owned, and yes Jones should be owned. But I am just bringing this up for your sake of saves hope. If you can pair either one of them at the right time, obviously when they are on a hot streak of two saves in 10 days, do so and upgrade your save booty. Advice over, bits of tid to follow. Cheers!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Tap on the shoulder, now tap on the other shoulder. Swords and knights yadda, yadda. Pun joke and title inclusion over. I could probably draw it out to upmost degree, but I’ll just end it and rip the bandaid off and jump into the welcome back Kotter bullpen of Philadelphia. If the collective bullpen in Philly isn’t called the Sweathogs, they are doing something wrong. The Vinnie Babarino that is emerging as the future leader is most definitely Seranthony Dominguez. Dude set a record with hitless streaks to start the year for a rookie and is now the go to, end all be all holds guy for the Phillies. His arsenal screams future closer, but Kapler’s fear of commitment and Neris owning pictures of some relative of his. Dominguez is the guy, for now and for later. With 5 holds and 1 save in his last 6 appearances, he is involved in almost every winning game the Phillies are. He checks all the proverbial boxes that we have previously discussed when looking for a reliever to roster. Plus he has the save appeal, which is similar to curb appeal, minus the fact that you don’t need shrubs or a Chinese maple tree to accent how dominant he has been. Holds for now, saves for later for the Sir of the Cheesesteak. Roster with confidence as his results are great, but be patient as Kapler is a mad scientist with his bullpen decision making skills. Holds week brings the best out of all of us, because you play in a league with holds. That’s why we are fake internet friends.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I mean, who doesn’t like a good old Kenny Rogers reference? I appreciate it, but was more keen on Islands in the Stream, which in reality still works for this post. This week, I wanna focus y’alls attention on when to keep relievers of hold value or when to fold them and grab someone new. I wanted to bring this up because the near-leader in holds currently is Juan Nicasio. (Who for all intents and purposes is a fantastic Holds pitcher when you just take into account the hold total of 12. Which trails only Archie.) The hold total is great for holds leagues says captain obvious. The peripheral stuff is absolutely poop though. Commander Poop, for the full nautical theme. He checks none of the boxes from the non-hold league boxes, his K-rate is just a tick above 9, HR/9 at 2.0, a BAA over .300 and an ERA over 6… Those are not the four checks that I was referring too. So for mixed leagues, the guys you want to own are all over these standards: The K-rate has to be at or above 11 K/9, which includes over 60 relievers in baseball. HR/9 has to be tiny, think under 0.50, BAA against has to be anything at or below league average of .243. And lastly, the ERA has to be respectful, but not the end-all-be-all of determinations, because unluckiness does happen with relievers. So when doing your homework for reliever adds, make a checklist of those three stats and let the ERA be the tie-breaker in determining your add. In holds leagues, quantity does matter, but if you are only going to eat one banana why buy the whole bunch and let them ruin all the other categories?Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Miami Jeters are currently cruising on a sub-60 win pace. Nice if you look at the investment value in terms of dollars and the amount of talent on the field. Now the once or semi-reliable closer, Brad Ziegler, has puked up another save chance and seen his ERA climb a blood alcohol level of 8.44. That is a Cherynoblian level that usually results in a quick change, minus Bill Murray dressed as a clown. In the wings are two decent enough options that in most leagues should be owned for their K prowess. They being Drew Steckenrider and Kyle Barraclough. A change is coming, as the soft-tossing Ziegler can’t rely on sorcery and garbage to will him through save chances, no matter how few and far between they are. The Marlins, from a standpoint of we are only winning X amount of games, and can’t afford to lose Y because of a closer who can’t shut the door is just bad for business. I am grabbing Steckenrider before Barraclough just based on games and position of appearances of date. It is really tough to say though because they have 7 wins, and neither guy has featured more than 4 appearances when the team has been leading. But Steck has seen more 8th innings, and I like him better because he has a closer makeup. So add accordingly if save speculating is your bag, but with success in closing comes success in the setup game. And don’t ignore Barraclough either, because he will be in elevated positions as well and since this is the Holds portion of the week, go get him if free.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Closer news is nice, but how much fluctuation is really happening in the first eight games of the year? Zero is the answer… but what about Kenley Jansen? If you drafted him, you are riding that gondola to closer purgatory as his draft slot is an inexcusable smorgasbord of devilishness. In layman’s terms? You are burnt. So like closers, I also cover their well being of your local neighborhood holds guys too. Early season patterns of usage are a key to early season effectiveness. Managers stick with guys early that have had a good spring and can be relied on to get tough outs. It is no different than later in the season, but some of the faces change because of poor spring, injury returns, and dreaded attrition factors that all relief pitchers battle. The role of the relief pitcher is completely expanding, as more former starters are being used in multi-inning appearances. Would it completely blow your mind if I said there have been more multi-inning appearances of four strikeouts than there have been starts with seven-plus innings? Boom, mind blown. The Peacock effect is in full bloom. Following the Devenski Effect of a year ago, the multi-inning reliever is going to become a hot commodity fantasy-wise… hopefully by Wednesday. The K-factor, the “free inning” factor, and the way you can time a relief pitcher on a down starting pitcher day is the exploitation factor that can vault your rates into the next level. It happens subtly and takes diligence on the wire, but two-3 K’s and rates per day at the cost of merely a few innings (as compared to a starter maybe going 5 innings and throwing 85 pitches) makes me wanna puke. Thanks Gabe Kapler. So keep an eye out for multi-inning relief cave dwellers and the goodies that they supply. Or just stick around here and learn about everything else that is happening around the bullpens around fake baseball!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Earlier in the preseason, I delved into the holds tiers for fantasy bullpens. It exists right here in the Fantasy Relief Pitchers for Holds. That was more a broad brushstroke of fantasy bullpen goodness that goes on here at Razznation. Now that we are thumbs deep in draft season and the players being more prominent in roles are starting to show their purpose we can get a better grip on who to won and who to covet for the ugly step sister of saves the hold stat. In more cases than not, following a “drafting for holds model” holds true, but holds are such a fluid stat… more fluid than the closer role. So drafting the elite guy every year looks like a great idea, but name the guy who lead the league in holds multiple years in a row or, hell, twice in their career? It’s a short list, whose names are not that awesome or even around anymore. So for drafting for holds, whether it be in a straight holds league or a saves+holds league having the edge up on bullpenery is key. The strategies for each of those leagues is basically the same as the elite holds category earners and they should be drafted after the last “donkeycorn” closer to come off the board. If you draft an elite closer, always cuff your closer with the top holds candidate on that team. Next, do what I just said twice and grab your second closer’s backup/holds guy. That will give you two closers, their back-ups for the “just in case” moments and holds. Then your last pick for your bullpen will be an independent guy that has a K/9 rate over 9. That is my finite strategy for drafting holds in any league. It gives you five guys that you can bank on every day in a “set it and forget it” type situation. Don’t fall in love with your options, as like I said, bullpen fluidness is blah and you can find a hot hand on an off day. So now that strategy is out of the way, let’s look at the more finite tiers of holds!Please, blog, may I have some more?
The most important thing in fantasy baseball relief-dom in terms of holds is consistency. Without consistency of opportunities, of placement in the bullpen, and a team’s consistent success in utilizing their bullpen to your fantasy advantage… you get left out out in the cold when it comes down to accumulating a stout holds based relief pitching corps. Until there is a shift in the utilization of bullpens for the benefit of fantasy, more so, the leagues that use the hold stat. I will admit that I am more of an eye test person than a numbers guy. Numbers scare me. They prove too many things that don’t factor in the human error factor and the good ole eye test. So against my better mental state, I used numbers from the past five years to show that the bullpens are being used more frequently. Not just by some teams, but by all teams. I know, duh. This is something that we all eyed to be happening than Smokey goes in the opposite direction like a dyslexic salmon and gets some data to prove the incline of a stat that he holds so near and dear to his fantasy bear heart. Well sit back, relax, it’s going to be a fun ride on the holds bus this week as we do some research and than put the top-50 relief pitchers into hold tiers. Enjoy!
The 2018 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join with prizes! All the exclamation points!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Much like the famous Doors song that shares it’s name, bullpens are drawing near. (Minus the Oedipus complex that the song explores.) I mean, it may… but that is gross and I don’t wanna associate my bullpen goodies to that. Moving on, shall we? This year has been the SAGNOF-fest that we always come to expect. Closers up, closers down. Trades and attrition. It happens every single year and it is the reason why the waiver wire is what it is: So we can get the new third closer for the Twins. The chase for saves never ends, well, I mean it ends for season-long leagues, but for dynasty and keeper leagues, the times never change. Saves are a category. A deeply hated and often cursed at category that will always be debated about. Whether or not to invest earlier picks then normal to get a stud, or just fill in with hope-so’s and also rans. There unfortunately is no right or wrong answer because both strategies work as long as you are a waiver goblin. So with the final post of the year, much like the other years that I have done this, we look to next year… This year’s counting stats and information don’t matter, we want to know what lies on the horizon. So let’s find out!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Quick, grab a coin from your pocket. Now hurl it in a river, and imagine it’s at someone in your office two cubicles away. Now mid-flight, make a wish. Get back to me in two-three days and let me know how it went. This luck and wish game is much like the closer game. We hope and pray that all is well, but at the end of the day, we only care about the accumulation. This late in the season its all about the job. Who is doing it and who isn’t, period. The stalwarts are on cruise control into the final stretch of the season and are mostly on more winning teams than the teams that have situations that aren’t the most ideal. Good bullpens usually equal good-to-moderately-good success in real life. Much is the same with fantasy closer investment and going into next year if you struggled for saves this year. Invest in teams that will have aspirations of playoff baseball. The investment in drafting a round or two earlier than usual should pay off in the long run of the ever treacherous 180 days of fantasy baseball. So with the season winding down, let’s see what is happening in the saves market around the game as we transition into fantasy football, basketball, hockey and SOCCER!Please, blog, may I have some more?
I have said it here previously that grabbing relievers from a hot team or a team on a winning streak is usually a fantastic strategy from a holds perspective. I really have said it multiple times, so my memory is better than your’s. The Indians are in unprecedented territory as the team is in the midst of a win streak for the ages. It seems like two Hatteberg’s and maybe half a David Justice ago that we remember the A’s had a win streak of twenty. But now the Indians are on their own 20-plus win streak. Winning is a team effort, but Holds are what we care about in the Bullpen report. The Indians Bullpen over the course of their win streak is just over a buck fitty, and that’s not what matters for this post. The accumulation of goodies is what makes them all shiny. The group of Bryan Shaw, Nick Goody, Tyler Olson and Joe Smith have totaled 20 holds over their last 20 games. That total is just crazy, because since the all star break (which was 40 plus games ago) the have more holds than six teams do in total since said All Star break. So investing in Cleveland for bullpen stuff is where it’s at currently. Chase the win streak to aide in your pursuit of a Holds championship. Let’s see what else is going down in the world of holds and bullpens…Please, blog, may I have some more?