Sunday, Sunday, Sunday! Sorry, always wanted to pretend I was the announcer for a monster truck rally…wouldn’t want to pretend to be AT one, exactly. Hell, wouldn’t want to be at one for real, either. Feel like I grew up in monster truck rally/WWE territory and have been doing my best to find intelligent life on Earth since and let me tell you, the occurrences have been slim…that excludes current company, of course. I’m sure none of you have an The Rock Fat Head in your room. Or better yet, I’m sure none of you have one that you wish to reveal now save for maybe Tehol but said Fat Head is on the ceiling above his bed and I’ve stopped asking why about these things. Sometimes its best to just go with the flow and that’s what I’m doing with today’s slate. DK is telling me I have a lot of expensive options to choose from but we’re being presented with a nice middle of the road price of $7,800 on Joe Ross today. At this point in the season – the season that is a whole seven days of data worth old – I tend to angle myself towards a very simple approach. That simple approach is: is the player good and if the answer is yes, is his price good? Ross’ price is good so I’m sold. Last year, Ross ticked a lot of the boxes on the stats I love. Good walk rate? At a BB/9 of 2.47, yup. Then you ask, does he K anyone? At an 8.10 K/9 rate, yes he does. Then I ask myself, can he keep the ball in the park? With a 49.8% GB rate, I’d have to say that’s also an affirmative. Ross will be scattered across pretty much every lineup I have today as he comes at a great price and will probably go overlooked on a day where there are so many aces on the mound. So feel free to join me in grabbing a Natty…no, not those Nattys. That’s gross, bro; it’s 2016, there’s better beer than that. Instead, join me on this Joe Ross is boss Natty train and let the money follow you in. And with that, we’re off so here’s my Robosaurus hot takes for this Sunday DK slate…
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Matt Harvey, SP: $11,900 – The cash game pitcher play is also the most expensive. WHODATHUNGKIT. Exactly, don’t overthink this. Pairing him with Joe should get the money pouring in…or the alcohol pouring. Never count that out in this game.
Johnny Cueto, SP: $10,700 – If you wanna spend your wad on pitching for the day, Cueto paired with Harvey should do just that…spend your wad. No reason to pay for both with Ross hanging out there but I do think Cueto can hang with Los Doyers.
Jimmy Nelson, SP: $7,900 – Tourney play only but the Astros are still the team they were last year: human windmills at the plate. They were the epitome of the three true outcomes rule and I don’t think that’s changed about them given the team makeup hasn’t really changed in that time. Nelson keeps the ball on the ground and usually offers low to reasonable K rates but with the Astros on the mound, I’m hoping for that 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 K kind of outing. So if you’re feeling frisky, try grabbing a Jimmy in Milwaukee.
Edinson Volquez, SP: $7,300 – Though the stats haven’t stabilized yet, the Twins leading the league in K% to start the year should surprise nobody. A full year of Sano’s whiffs coupled with Park’s approach should lead to plenty of offensive lulls for the Twinkies the year and I think we’re experiencing an early one now. Don’t hate me for re-using a phrase but I just watched the movie again and love the hell out of it. I’m all for E-V.
Williams Perez, SP: $6,300 – If you wanna get gross with me, follow along. Yesterday’s offensive explosion could hold, but if you’re anything like me, you’ve been wondering when the Cardinals offense would fall of the face off the Earth ever since they had a .377 BABIP when runners were in scoring position in 2013. I get it, they’re well coached but no matter how good the coach, I’m supposed to believe Jedd Gyorko is gonna become a thing? Black magic only lasts for so long. This is a tourney only call and a call to take advantage of the Cardinals looking completely inept and unCardinal-like on offense so far this year.
Buster Posey, 1B/C: $4,300 – If you’re saving money from some of the 7K pitchers above, you can afford to not pay the min at catcher. Posey against a lefty is a Sunday Funday moment, especially when said lefty isn’t Kershaw.
Tony Wolters, C: $2,200 – Alright, now we’re back to normal. It’s Sunday, the usual rest day for starting catchers so why not look into a bat playing in Coors? Consider this an ok go on Christian Bethancourt if he’s in and for that matter, any Coors bat. But you’re smart and knew that already.
Prince Fielder, 1B: $4,500 – Weaver maxed out around 87 on the radar gun last year and was mercilessly pummeled by lefty bats when he was on the road. As a flyball pitcher, that’s not a recipe for success, even in the spacious confines of Anaheim. The beginning of the end was 2015 and I think we see the final nails in the coffin this year. A Rangers stack, you say? Don’t mind if I do. It was a nice dream, Weaver, but I don’t believe you can get through the night.
Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF: $3,800 – If you’re looking to pay down, I’d look to see if Odorizzi’s weird splits from last year persist. Despite being a righty, Jake had a 5.01 xFIP and a 1.59 HR/9 against right handed sluggers last year. I wouldn’t go full on stack against him, but getting in a power righty wouldn’t hurt. Mark’s already got his steal out of the way, a HR has to be coming next!
Justin Bour, 1B: $2,800 – So maybe you hate my Joe Ross call. Hell, maybe you hate me. I don’t know and I don’t care but what I do care about is making you some scratch so I’ll note that Ross struggled against lefties last year and Bour at this price is a great punt play at 1B for his mash potential.
Cory Spangenberg, 2B/3B: $3,500 – Had a HR last night and a triple on Friday. It’s not like I need to tell you he’s in Colorado based on those stats but based on the price, I think I might have to. Don’t waste your time spending anywhere else, we got this.
Luis Sardinas, 2B/SS: $2,400 – A punting we will go…a little bit a pop, a little bit of speed and maybe the Mariners current version of Willie Bloomquist. I wouldn’t expect much but if Seattle can find a reason to get him into the lineup, I’m sure the price can find a way to get him onto yours.
Todd Frazier, 3B: $4,400 – I actually like Josh Tomlin this year if given a good scenario. Tomlin is a flyball pitcher going into a HR friendly park…that’s not a good scenario. This is the kind of game that could get ugly quickly or feature tons of solo shots. Methinks Frazier gets in on the act either way. Come get your tossed salad and scrambled eggs.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $4,000 – Today might be the day that the Mous gets loose. Nolasco has been a piñata for a few years now and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Given he challenges hitt…bahahahaha, sorry, I couldn’t say ‘challenges hitters’ with a straight face. Dude throws meat and hopes every batter goes Vegan for the day. A Royals stack is in order here, folks. Throw in Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain for good measure.
Eugenio Suarez, SS: $3,800 – I hate chasing after a guy who already had a HR yesterday, but lefty Jeff Locke is on the mound and I’m seeing dollar signs. If you go for his cheaper, less sexy Reds SS partner, Zack Cozart, at $3,400, I wouldn’t blame ya.
Brad Miller, OF/SS: $3,600 – Camden Yards has always played well for lefty bats, so throwing a few of them at straight-throwing Vance Worley could be a ticket for success. A sneaky mini-Rays stack if you’re doing multi-lineups could cash well. Try throwing Kevin Kiermaier, Corey Dickerson, and/or Logan Morrison out there if you’re up for it.
Mike Trout, OF: $5,400 – What is this? The most expensive outfielder is a great play? *Insert fourth wall breaking shocked Deadpool gif here*. Lefty on the mound and Trout hasn’t hit one out yet. I mean, little Mike is no Trevor Story but I think he’s got it in him to hit one out sooner rather than later.
John Jaso, OF: $3,500 – The new Dread Pirate is a boring yet useful cash game lock at this point. He also launched this incredible tweet. Yes, I really retweeted myself. It’s the internet, no one cares what I do.
Adam Duvall, OF: $3,400 – Ok, so maybe I like Reds bats today. So what of it? The power at this price is just too good to pass up. Duvall has done little to gain our trust so far this year but with one mighty swing of the bat, he could go 4x his salary. How’s that for a trust fall?
Jeremy Hazelbaker, OF: $2,500 – Hazelbaker’s minor league profile suggested someone who would hit 7 HRs and steal 20 bags in the big leagues so naturally, he has 2 HRs in 12 PAs and has started in favor of Randal Grichuk at least twice now. Baseball! A potential punt with panache play here as he’s been batting second in the LU.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’ll be threats of precipitation nearly all day for the CHWvsCLE tilt. I doubt it gets washed out but be aware if you’re considering the pitchers as it’s a game that could be delayed once or twice. Outside of that, I’d be very surprised the DETvsNYY game gets in tonight so I’d avoid in cash and doing one LU of Yankee stack and another of Tigers if I’m multi-LU’ing out there.
Doing Lines In Vegas
To no one’s surprise, Harvey and the Mets sit as the heavy favorite on the day. As mentioned above, water is wet…I mean cash lock. Trailing behind him at -190 is King Felix and the M’s (Great band name!). What intrigues me about this line is it’s jumped from a -170 open to what it is now and has seen a half run shaved off the total. That puts Felix Hernandez on my love radar which is a little different than radar love in that I don’t know what the hell radar love is. I mean, Golden Earring was Dutch so maybe they didn’t know what they were singing either. We also have a similar shift in the MILvsHOU tilt for Dallas Keuchel as the line did a nice wiggle from -148 to -170 and the run line also shaved a half run down to 7.5. I’m not as enthused here, but the Brewers lineup is still really young and I could see some struggle against a Cy winner. The final sliding line for me is the 8.5 to 7.5 O/U in CHWvsCLE. Maybe it’s just the weather as they didn’t give Quintana much more of a win nudge with that move, but it does intrigue for tourney purposes now in the pitching department. On the flip side, if you wanna chase some high O/U’s today for the bats, you’ve got the big name COLvsSD at 11.5 being chased by TORvsBOS at 9.5 and a smattering of 8.5 games, including CINvsPIT.