I know, I know.  Most boring Pitcher Profile in the lauded history of the Pitcher Profiles…  But Tim Lincecum has been the talk of the town in some circles, that is, if the circle you’re in is at a retirement home…

I was hotly debating writing this week’s profile on the sexy new call-up Cody Reed, but legit decided to flip a coin to see who’s 2016 debut I would go with.  One side was Jennifer Lawrence and the other side Sir Laurence Olivier.  As in he’s old!  Wait, I don’t think he’s even alive…  Don’t fact check that…

It’s been several years since Old Tiny Tim has been fantasy relevant, and it’s only fitting that the reason why is a hip issue.  He shoulda pressed the Life Alert earlier!  But now he’s had the surgery, showed some flashes in his Minor League rehab games (7 inning 1-hitter with 8 Ks his last AAA start), and debuted for the Angels on Saturday afternoon.  Here’s how his 2016 debut went down going at the A’s:

First Inning: Lincecum’s first pitch of 2016 is a low and away fastball at 89, 1-0 to Billy Burns.  Fastball gets the call and and up in the zone 1-1, fastball sinks well low, then a 2-1 change-up gets Burns flipping the bat to shoot it to right, but it’s caught fairly easily for the first out.  88 MPH four seamer in there to Coco Crisp, then that big change-up at 82 gets Lincecum’s first whiff, 0-2.  Timmy Tim sticks with the change and gets a bullet hit to short, but the alignment was right there for a clean play to first.  Breaking ball at 83 gets the top of the zone to Stephen Vogt, fastball low and away, 90 MPH on the hands gets Vogt jammed for a weak foul back, inside slider gets popped foul and barely falls between two Angels in foul ground, 1-2.  Inside fastball is taken, fastball again fouled off, change-up at 83 flutters low and away, then a 3-2 high fastball is crushed to left center for a double off the wall.  Lincecum gave in there, but in his defense, probably should’ve been an out on the foul pop earlier in the AB.  Nice slider at 83 gets strike one to Danny Valencia, and if that pitch can work for strikes, Lincecum might be decent this year…

Lincecum-SliderThen he follows it with a 90 MPH fastball perfectly placed on the outside corner.

Lincecum-FastballHe threw it so fast he almost was faster than the GIF!  Sorry that one got a little jacked up, had issues with the MLB stream of this game…  And I really love this sequence, change-up to put him away.

Lincecum-Changeup-1I had very low expectations for this start, but I was pumped to GIF early today!  Sign of some goodness to come!

Second Inning: Hanging breaking ball stays high to open the second, 1-0 to Khris Davis, breaking ball again high in the zone gets a mighty swing-and-miss 1-1, low and away fastball is ball 2, fastball again paints the low black 2-2, slider breaking low at 84 is fouled off, then fastball on the hands is flared to right for an easy first out.  High fastball gets Timmy ahead 0-1 to Jed Lowrie, high fastball again makes it 0-2 to Lowrie’s chagrin, fastball gets a late-swing foul back, fastball again gets another late swing and foul, change drops low, big slider gets a pretty close check swing but it’s 2-2 (replay shows he might have gone there), then change-up is dumped to left for a single.  On both of Lincecum’s hits there could’ve been outs right before them!  Fastball at 88 in there to Yadier Alonso, fastball again fouled off, slider gets a check swing that dies in the dirt right next to the catcher, high fastball fouled back, then change on the hands is dribbled to third, and Yunel Escobar‘s only play is to first for the out.  Josh Phegley takes a slider in there 0-1, change-up breaking low and in gets a weak foul, then change again gets a weak grounder to short and Lincecum out of the inning.

Third Inning: Still a 0-0 game and Lincecum breaks out a biggggg 74 MPH curveball that’s well low to Marcus Semien, curve again stays high, 2-0 fastball fouled off, fastball again fouled, then change-up is chopped to third, but the play is made by Escobar, 1 down.  Lincecum again goes curveball on the first pitch, but Burns sat on it and slaps it to left for a single.  I dunno if that curveball is gonna do much for Lincecum today…  Slider gets strike one on Crisp, Crisp bunts the next one foul, fastball well outside 1-2, fastball high, change-up drops low, then a nasty change-up at 81 gets Crisp to swing over it for Lincecum’s 2nd K:

Lincecum-Changeup-2Two down, Burns still at first, and Vogt takes a change-up with Burns taking off, and Burns barely makes it safe at second on the steal.  Runner in scoring position and change again flutters low and outside, slider inside makes it 3-0, then fastball that looked good to me is called ball four for a walk.  Fastball well inside to Valencia and Lincecum fell over on that one, not sure what happened there, slider in the dirt, and getting a little shaky 2-0.  Fastball again misses 3-0, then Valencia hacking 3-0 gets a broken bat single up the gap with his bat heilcoptering behind it.  Burns scores and Lincecum gives up his first run.  So still two down, and slider hangs high to Davis, slider again stays high and Davis swings out of his helmet ala Carlos Gomez 1-1, then fastball inside hits Davis’s elbow to load the bases.  Yeesh.  After a visit to the mound from the pitching coach and catcher, Lincecum fires a good fastball in the zone to Lowrie who swings and misses, then change-up gets him to roll over it to first for the out and get Lincecum out of a hairy inning.

Fourth Inning: After that grinding 3rd inning Lincecum is at 64 pitches, but finds himself up 2-1 now and fires a nice slider for strike one is taken by Alonso, 0-1.  Change-up low and outside, change again misses 2-1, then fastball is hit hard to third, but Escobar makes a great play on the shift for the first out.  High fastball to Phegley 1-0, fastball again foul-tipped back, then fastball on the hands is golfed to shallow left and caught in foul territory for the second out.  Fastball low and inside to Semien, slider outside, then 2-0 fastball is popped up to shallow left and gets Lincecum a sorely needed 1-2-3 inning.

Fifth Inning: Still a 2-1 game and Lincecum opens the inning the third time through the order and misses high to Burns, fastball is in there 1-1, fastball again gets a slap well foul, fastball again gets that slap swing that slices foul, fastball misses outside, then slider gets a weak grounder to short, one down.  Fastball misses to Crisp, then fastball again is hit hard to right, but it’s caught by Kole Calhoun on the run, 2 down.  Vogt takes a good fastball in there 0-1, Lincecum misses outside, slider fouled off, change fouled off, then change again is flared to left for another 1-2-3 inning.

Sixth Inning: The Angels absolutely rip the game open scoring 5 in the top of the inning, giving Lincecum a 7-1 lead.  I’m actually a little surprised they brought Lincecum back out after a long layoff there and at 87 pitches, but he’s outside to Valencia, then low with the fastball again, then 2-0 fastball is outside, quickly 3-0.  But fastball is in there to fight back, then 3-1 fastball at 87 misses outside for a walk.  Change gets a huge rip from Khris Davis who whiffs 0-1, big slider break low 1-1, change hangs high, fastball stays high, then 3-1 fastball gets grounded to short for a tailor-made double play.  Davis bailed him out there.  Then a first pitch fastball is lined hard to left by Lowrie, but caught on the run by Shane Robinson to get Lincecum out of the inning and would end up being his final out of a winning debut to 2016.

Final Line:  W  6.0 IP  98 Pitches (59 Strikes)  1 ER  4 Hits  2 Walks  2 K  Gamescore: 60   Gamescore+: 56.2

Final Analysis: Meh.  Can that be my whole analysis?  I went in “trying” to have an open mind about Lincecum maybe being a surprise this year, but I wasn’t hugely impressed.  Not surprisingly, the low Ks gave Lincecum an unfavorable Gamescore+ compared to the Gamescore, but it wasn’t like too many outs were rockets.

Lincecum’s arsenal starts with that deceptive fastball that sat 87-89 most of this outing, topping out at 90 MPH.  No surprises there from the reports we heard from the Minor Leagues – the Lincecum fastball from the Cy years isn’t back or anything.  His main off-speed is the change-up, which he relies on heavy sink and deception off the fastball.  A lot of foul balls and weak contact in this start, so it was mainly working.  He threw a good number of sliders as well; a few had some nice bite, but it didn’t feel like a consistent pitch to me.  He also flashed a few curveballs in the mix, but that pitch wasn’t really there for him as he wasn’t throwing them for strikes, and the one time he did he gave up a single.

It’s really nice to see Lincecum back, and he’s in a pretty good pitcher’s park yet again, so there’s some streaming value here.  But I think we’re going to see a career low K-rate fall well below 7 (I know you’re like “duh!” but he was over 7 even in the rough last few years in SF) and some rough starts on the road.  The A’s are pretty much the Padres or Braves of the AL offenses, so this was a dream matchup and in a dream park for giving up a lot of foul balls.  I think only one foul turned into an out in the giant O.co’s foul grounds, but it was still a great situation.  I struggled with adding Lincecum to my ranks, but I think the nice park and fresh arm will make him semi-usable at the right times and barely cracked him in my top 100 ROS.

Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Jake Arrieta, CHC
3 Chris Sale, CWS
4 Max Scherzer, WAS
5 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
6 Jose Fernandez, MIA
7 Madison Bumgarner, SF
8 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
9 Jacob deGrom, NYM
10 Jon Lester, CHC
11 Johnny Cueto, SF
12 Corey Kluber, CLE
13 Danny Salazar, CLE
14 Zack Greinke, ARI
15 David Price, BOS
16 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
17 Chris Archer, TB
18 Carlos Martinez, STL
19 Justin Verlander, DET
20 Matt Harvey, NYM
21 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
22 Joe Ross, WAS
23 Aaron Nola, PHI
24 Steven Matz, NYM
25 Cole Hamels, TEX
26 Jose Quintana, CWS
27 John Lackey, CHC
28 Jeff Samardzija, SF
29 Taijuan Walker, SEA
30 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
31 Jason Hammel, CHC
32 Drew Smyly, TB
33 Julio Teheran, ATL
34 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
35 Gerrit Cole, PIT
36 Rich Hill, OAK
37 Yu Darvish, TEX
38 James Paxton, SEA
39 Matt Shoemaker, LAA
40 Michael Fulmer, DET
41 Carlos Rodon, CWS
42 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
43 Kenta Maeda, LAD
44 Drew Pomeranz, SD
45 Jordan Zimmermann, DET
46 Julio Urias, LAD
47 Chris Tillman, BAL
48 Jameson Taillon, PIT
49 Lance McCullers, HOU
50 Marcus Stroman, TOR
51 Marco Estrada, TOR
52 Adam Wainwright, STL
53 Tanner Roark, WAS
54 Sonny Gray, OAK
55 Kevin Gausman, BAL
56 Michael Wacha, STL
57 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
58 Steven Wright, BOS
59 Jon Gray, COL
60 Trevor Bauer, CLE
61 Francisco Liriano, PIT
62 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
63 Ian Kennedy, KC
64 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
65 Tyler Glasnow, PIT
66 J.A. Happ, TOR
67 Felix Hernandez, SEA
68 Vincent Velasquez, PHI
69 Jake Odorizzi, TB
70 Nate Karns, SEA
71 Wei-Yin Chen, MIA
72 Rick Porcello, BOS
73 Adam Conley, MIA
74 Danny Duffy, KC
75 Zachary Davies, MIL
76 Jerad Eickhoff, PHI
77 Patrick Corbin, ARI
78 Blake Snell, TB
79 Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
80 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
81 Scott Kazmir, LAD
82 Archie Bradley, ARI
83 CC Sabathia, NYY
84 Junior Guerra, MIL
85 Mike Leake, STL
86 Robbie Ray, ARI
87 Jaime Garcia, STL
88 Josh Tomlin, CLE
89 Colby Lewis, TEX
90 Matt Moore, TB
91 Michael Pineda, NYY
92 Mike Fiers, HOU
93 Sean Manaea, OAK
94 Cody Reed, CIN
95 Collin McHugh, HOU
96 Edinson Volquez, KC
97 Tim Lincecum, LAA
98 James Shields, CWS
99 Bartolo Colon, NYM
100 Derek Holland, TEX

Dropped Out: Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (ugh), Matt Andriese, TB (surprised he was yanked for the rotation to be honest, not that Snell isn’t good or anything, but Andriese had been OK…), Hector Santiago, LAA (probably shoulda yanked him a week or two ago…)

  • At some point we just have to admit that Corey Kluber is gonna get hit hard when his stuff isn’t on point, since he refuses to walk anyone.  Pretty annoying.
  • Uhguhguhguhguhgg Yu Darvish!  Ahhhh!  I go from ranking him too low in the offseason, to vaulting because he looks awesome and gets back on the mound a little earlier than some reports suggested back in Feb., to now hurt again and we have to really worry how much the Rangers push him.  Even MORE annoying!
  • To the positives, I’m back on the Drew Smyly bandwagon!  Had a few comments that made me make tough decisions on if I would hold him, but I think I answered hold strong more often than not.  Looked phenomenal in his return after having a start skipped.  I’m excited again.
  • I just really don’t know what to do with Taijuan Walker, who pitched 5 scoreless – AT BOSTON!!! – but is still ailing with foot issues, even with a new insert that I’m assuming he indeed used (I saw news he needed one, but nothing say he for sure used it) for flat feet.  I’m about 50/50 that he’s on the DL by his next start, but since he can pitch through it, I don’t think it would be a lengthy stay.
  • As I only noticed last week in the comments and mentioned on the Pod, Matt Shoemaker is not only throwing his splitter a ton more, but his average fastball velocity is wayyyyy up as well.  If you look at it by game, through his career he was usually 89-90, but the last 9 starts, he’s been 91.5 or higher every single outing.
  • Had some interesting thoughts on Tanner Roark last week, who I have used in several leagues over the scrubs in the 50-60 range.  Certainly gets pretty gnarly outside the top 50ish.
  • I still have some hope for Anthony DeSclafani – throwing hard and throwing a great slider a lot – but I don’t know what happened @ATL…  Deeper leagues he’s very stashable if anyone has stayed away or dropped him, but he’s fallen off my radar for standard leagues/streaming for now.
  • No idea where he found it, but CC Sabathia averaged 91.8 then 92.6 on his fastball his last two starts, after being in the 87-88 range the past few years.  Since 87-88 is also the range of his BMI, I still can’t buy in any further due to all the injury concerns.
  • I finally brought myself to rank Tyler Chatwood, then he leaves his last start with a back issue and lands on the DL…  I’m saved from ranking two pitchers in Coors!

Thoughts on Timmy Tim Tam?  And what do you make of the ranks this week?  Shoot your thoughts below, and may your hip labrums stay untorn!

 
  1. Alan says:
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    What is the deal with Pineda? his perifs have him as a 3 ERA but he never seems to come close.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Alan: He’s like an extreme version of Kluber. Virtually no walks, so when the breaking stuff isn’t working, he is mad hittable

  2. Tom James says:
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    Interesting. The starter with the lowest WHIP in the AL (where they don’t get to pitch to pitchers) is ranked #51?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Tom James: yeah I had a note on him last week, his peripherals SCREAM it’s a fluke. Sooooo many walks too. But you’re right, he likely deserves to be higher – got the big bump last week tho. Just so hard to believe in after seeing him murdered while a Brewer and pitching in Toronto

    • Rice says:
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      @Tom James: Surprising Fact: Estrada also has the lowest batting average against in MLB at .168

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Tom James: @Rice: Yeesh. His BABIP is… .188!!!!!!!!!!!! Whaaaaaaat. I knew it was still .200ish but not that far under. He’s giving up [slightly] more HR and a ton more walks than last year, yet is doing better than his dream season of 2015

        • Pete says:
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          @JB Gilpin:

          Eatrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher though. His career era is way below career FIP. After this long, you kind of need to accept that his peripherals are always going to look bad. Mat Cain did it…

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Tom James: @Rice: @Pete: There’s a big difference in “peripherals look bad” and “leading the AL in WHIP” as original poster mentioned. Matt Cain never had a BABIP under .252. Matt Cain never beat his xFIP by more than 1.3 runs it looks like. Estrada beat his xFIP by 1.8 runs last year and is beating it by over 2 runs (!!!!!!!!!!!) this year. I’m not a very good historical data researcher, but this is starting to be like one of the most extreme outliers to peripherals.

            • Pete says:
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              @JB Gilpin:

              I agree but still think Estrada will finish well ahead of his peripherals. I have him at around 30 (if I made lists)

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Pete: Cool cool, so right there with Smyly, Hendricks, and I don’t think there’s a big difference between who I have 30 and where Estrada is either. I feel like right around top-20 it gets really messy quick then right around 55-60 it gets REALLY messy, all those guys 20-50 – while it seems like a HUGE tier – don’t feel monumentally different to me this year. Weekly re-ranks have been tough due to that

                • I don't want to brag but i have irritable bowel syndrome says:
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                  @JB Gilpin: i used to own that estrada in a 30 man league, couldn’t even reup him 2 years ago. wasn’t worth it at the time (on MIL then)

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @I don’t want to brag but i have irritable bowel syndrome: I remember those days! Had a nice surprise season for us in 2012, decent in 2013, then fell apart in 2014. Since 2013, his K rate has gone down and BB rate up EVERY SINGLE SEASON! Yet he gets better and better… This is out of control

  3. Tio says:
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    JB – Will Gausman ever come around? Has been a bit unlucky but seems to have ugly road splits.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Tio: Meh…. I dunno if he’ll ever be better than a streamer this year, just so meh a lot of the time

  4. Marcus says:
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    Thanks for the rankings as always! In a 10 team H2H mixed league format where would you say that the streamers begin in your rankings? If you think there is such a line to be drawn.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Marcus: It’s a murky line, I would say 40-42 range, like it’d be tough for me to ever sit Hendricks or Maeda right now or Fulmer. 10 team is pretty shallow, is it daily moves or weekly lock?

  5. Robert says:
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    Gray or Teheran in a 10 team h2h league?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Robert: Teheran by a good margin for me

  6. JVanSlyke says:
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    Thanks JB, great write up

    After the podcast last week I thought you’d be higher on Duffy. Is it he not going past six innings a start holding you back. Right now im own him over Rodon and Paxton. Should I drop him for either??

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @JVanSlyke: Thanks man! Well at some point Grey kinda hinted he thinks Duffy is a big injury risk as well. I’m kinda worried about injuries/pulling him from rotation. They’ve done it a lot before, given he looks better than ever as a SP right now, but yes as you mention, lack of going deep is giving me a lot more faith. I would prob own Paxton in redraft of the 3 right now

  7. griff says:
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    In a dynasty format, which pitcher do you like better: cody reed or daniel norris?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @griff: Ohhhhh good one. I’ll lean Reed, I think more upside, but very close

  8. regan says:
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    At least i know why Walker hasn’t looked right in awhile. My guess is this has been bothering him on and off for awhile now.

    Keutchel at 30 seems high. I gave up on him along time ago. Should have listened to Grey in the preseason.

    Speaking of Grey, ironic how he always preaches to stay away from injured pitchers and then breaks his own rule with Darvish.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @regan: Yup, makes sense for Walker, crazy he’s still shown some dominant stretches tho. Wow, so on the Podcast I helped convince Keuchel was awful! Dropped him really low by week 2 re ranks. But Ks lately have been better, he’s stopped walking guys, I like the trend he’s on. Hah great point on Darvish! Silly Grey…

  9. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Nice job, JB!

    Don’t know what to make of Taijaun either, and hoping you can help me with some roster choices in my shallow (10 team) H2H redraft, which tracks QS in addition to W.

    Love Taijuan, but this foot thing is stopping him from getting to the 6 inning QS threshold and it sounds like he may hit the DL. The team sizes are not very large, and I’ve also got Darvish and Hill on my team, with only 1 DL spot (rest of rotation is Scherzer, Carrasco, Price, Pom, Shoe, Tillman, Taillon). If Taijuan hits the DL would you drop him or Hill to make room for a streamer slot (really beneficial in this format) or hold?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Thanks man! Yeahhhh, your league is too shallow to own all those guys, sadly. Pomeranz is towards the end of the list right now too. Sounds like Hill is going slowly though, I’d prob rank them as drops Hill, Pom, Walker (if DLed and injury sounds like just rest is the trick)

  10. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Also, what did you think of Shelby Miller’s start today? Streamed him in a different league (roto, where I’m behind my innings count by a lot and need W) but now I’m thinking about holding him to see if he fixed himself (though definitely benching @ col next).

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: He was still throwing hard, but kept scraping the ground with his hand somehow… Weird right? So yeah if that is ironed out, I think he could crack 80ish. Dunno if he’s too close to holding unless pretty deep league tho

  11. So I a struggling with what to do with my staff.

    I am in 1st overall, but on the strength of my hitting. it is a 5×5 roto 14 team very competitive.

    I got: Thor, Arrietta, DeGrom as my top 3… I got Walker in there too. but it is a 6sp start weekly league. The rest I got are Junior Guerra, Nathan Karns, Jose Berrios, Raisel Iglesias, Tim Lincecum, Alex Reyes, Dan Straily.

    Is it time to give up and drop berrios (9 player keeper league) and use that spot for another streamer for the week?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @The discarded head of Ted Williams: Mehhhh, Berrios is interesting, but if you have good hitters then those top 3 pitchers, no way he’s cracking a keeper start. So yeah I am fine streaming.

      • Am I right in being more intrigued by Alex Reyes then Berrios? Even if he comes up in the pen this year he can be a nice 4th RP guy and be on a much better team next year.

        The league is so deep, that I feel like you gotta roster a streamer stable and then just go with the best ones each week. Pickups are normally pretty rare.

        All could be better if I didn’t give up on Fulmer after a few starts.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @The discarded head of Ted Williams: Oh definitely. I think reyes ranked higher in some lists before the Berrios initial call up. Oh damn, yeah I def didn’t see this Fulmer fun coming either!

  12. Chucky says:
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    Trust a 2 start Paxton @ Det, v StL over a Peavy v Phil, Gray @ NYY, Pomeranz @ Cincy, Stroman @CWS or Odorizzi @ Balt? H2H

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chucky: Yup! Gimme the 2 start big fellah!

  13. Nitro says:
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    Is Guerra worth a stream at Oakland this week?
    Thanks…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Nitro: Yup I think so!

  14. Greg says:
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    Blake Snell is unclaimed and I get it: I now have only one AL East pitcher (Fulmer) and said bye to good pitchers in Stroman and Gausman because it ain’t any way to make a living facing their division mates so often.

    My rotation: Bum, Matz, Fulmer, JRoss, CRodon, DDuffy, JPaxton, and Darvish and Cobb on the DL.

    1) Aside from DL guys, Snell over any of these?

    And 2) Now that we know VV was hurting, and he’s saved a lot of innings on the DL, say he came off today, where would you rank?

    Thanks, man.

    Oh, 3) who gets next call up? Rookie impact pitcher. …

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Greg: Yeahhhh, and I watched his bad start, Snell has decent stuff, good movement, but nothing is “sharp” or “crisp”. Just very bendy that I dunno will translate to the majors yet. 1 – Nah, he’s not too close to those guys right now 2) I do like Velasquez, maybe 50ish? Any time, thanks again for dropping by! Oh and bonus #3 – Glasnow? Still think he’s close. I’d LOVE if Josh Hader got the call for my Brewers soon, but kinda doubt it would be before trade deadline – we desperately would love to trade Garza or C Anderson

  15. John says:
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    What are your thoughts on Stroman? There seems to be some poor luck, but man has he been getting hit hard. That and a lack of strikeouts. Guy in my league just dropped him. Is he worth a flier over say Ian Kennedy?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @John: Yeah I think so, agree the upside is worth the flier there. I have Stroman ranked higher with the same idea. Might only play him in the right matchups next few starts, but that’s kinda what you have to do with Kennedy as well. ANy time!

  16. Ain't nothing but a gangster Marte says:
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    12 team 5×5 roto

    You starting Paxton @DET tomorrow? SON doesn’t like it at all (-$14.3).

  17. John says:
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    Bauer v Rays or Guerra v A’s on Wednesday?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @John: No homerism from me, I’d rather play Bauer

  18. Wanderball says:
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    JB, can’t say it enough, always a great read – thanks.

    Thoughts, McCutch for Lester too much?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Wanderball: Thanks so much man, really appreciate that! Hmmm, nope I don’t think so! Seems pretty even

      • OuchmyKP says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks JB

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @OuchmyKP: Any time!

  19. My Thread Count Is High says:
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    Whats up JB? Chiming in a little later than normal, hope all’s well in your part of NC. Great column, as usual, ole Timmy aint what he used to be, that much if for sure. Regarding Walker, his foot issues are beginning to concern me too. I know he went for an MRI and Im worried he’s going to hit the DL and I’ll have to eat his spot because my DL is full…at least until Sano returns anyway.

    So Ive been pretty pleased with Paxton and Shoemaker thus far, Gray has pitched well for me too. My roster has changed a bit since we last talked…I know shocker, right? Was offered Duffy for ss/3B Suarez and accepted because A)He’s shown pretty good pop although hes slumped a bit lately B) Like you Im not sure if I trust Duffy long term and C) Im a sucker for SS depth when Addison Russell is my starter. And I had stashed D’Arnaud because there were a couple of C needy teams, thought maybe I could flip him, but no takers thus far.

    Anywho… someone recently dropped Turner, and I (maybe mistakenly) dropped Maybin to add D’Arnaud. So either of them worth adding/re-acquiring? It looks like Dusty could be reluctant to play Trea with Espinosa showing a little life, but Id hate to miss out on him if he were to play, I dont have a lot of speed as is. He’d also have a last round draft tag assigned if Id added him off waivers in next years draft. Would you drop D’Arnaud for Turner? And in regards to Maybin, do you prefer him over L.Martin or another player on my roster? Not much on the ole SP wire, Kennedy, Gausman, CHen, Moore are kinda the high lights, figured they’re all best left to streaming, although it’ll hurt if I lose Walker and can’t replace his roster spot.

    ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS daily moves and 4 keepers per season

    C Posey
    1B Cabrera
    2B Daniel Murphy
    3B Seager
    SS A. Russell
    OF Stanton
    OF Springer
    OF Polanco
    UTIL OF Choo
    UTIL OF L.Martin
    Bench C D’Arnaud
    Bench SS/3B Suarez
    DL Sano

    SP Salazar
    SP Shoemaker
    RP Kimbrel
    RP Melancon
    P T. Walker
    P Odorizzi
    P C.Rodon
    P Pomeranz
    Bench SP Paxton
    Bench SP J.Gray
    Bench RP Estevez
    DL RP McGee

    • My Thread Count Is High says:
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      @My Thread Count Is High: OMT thoughts on Melvin Upton? I forgot both he and Maybin are out there.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @My Thread Count Is High: What’s good man?! Hah yeah you’re def actively shaping your roster! Hmmm Suarez vs. Russell ROS… I think that might be close but still might try to consolidate into 1 SS! Well with 5 keepers, I dunno if Turner will break into a keeper spot. I def don’t mind trying to make your 2 SS into one somehow and stashing him though, but I don’t know how much Turner will play for a Dusty team. I think I like L Martin over Maybin. And yeah if trades aren’t happenin for d’Arnaud I don’t think you need 2 C either I would prob move on there for other streaming needs

        • My Thread Count Is High says:
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          @JB Gilpin: Thanks man, appreciate the insight. Man Ive been trying to upgrade my SS situation all year, my exact thoughts were maybe I can package Russell and Suarez for a real SS but alas, it hasnt materialized, hence my interest in Turner. I saw your boy Arcia is getting reps at 2nd now, think he could be my answer eventually?Bregmans out there too, albeit he likely has a concusion after last night pitch to the head.

          So since no one is biting on the D(which would usually be a good thing lol)’arnaud, who would you try to add in his place. Maybin, Upton, Burns, K.Davis(whos dinged up), Pillar or the struggling Conforto or add an arm out of Corbin, Moore, Kennedy, Gausman(meh again last night) or DeScalafanin?

          • My Thread Count Is High says:
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            @My Thread Count Is High: Still like to hear who you’d replace D’arnaud with but looks like Im going to have to hold him for now because Posey is DTD with a hamstring, might be a good thing I added him afterall.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @My Thread Count Is High: Yeah it’s tough to trade 2 guys barely ownable for 1. Might have to find another option, then you could drop both Russell and Suarez tho.

              I saw that with Arcia too and that’s friggin weirrrrd. Maybe call him up sooner than we expected to platoon with Scoot and play vs. lefties at first? I dunno. Long term there’s no reason to keep off of short, just move Villar to 3rd, I guess they would tinker with this until A Hill is traded. Ugh yeah Bregman is scary now, I imagine they go slow.

              Man none of those options excite me too much, maybe Conforto and ride him on your bench most of the time since he has the upside. Hah yeah maybe ride d’Arnaud until posey is back fa sho

              • My Thread Count Is High says:
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                @JB Gilpin: Thanks buddy! Not sure how bad Posey’s hammy is, but they said he had trouble walking down the dug out steps after pulling it . If he and T.Walker end up needing DL stints Im gonna be down 2 roster spots because I have no DL spots free, Ive been in 3rd most of the season but recently dropped to 5th(top 4 make playoffs) need my guys to get healthy to stop the free fall.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @My Thread Count Is High: Yeesh yeah that doesn’t sound good. Yikes, injuries hitting hard! Hopefully Sano is back soon, and maybe if you’re crunched you can drop T Walker

                  • My Thread Count Is High says:
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                    @JB Gilpin: Read a report where he said it was a cramp and he’s fine…lets hope he’s not just downplaying it. And I refuse to drop Walker lol. Back to my SS delima from earlier do you like both my guys better than Turner? Meaning would you hold Russell and drop Suarez in the hopes Turner gets to play or just hold both Russell and Suarez until a better SS presents themselves? And finally if Posey is ok and I want to try to move d”Arnaud, what are your thoughts on Bauer? Theres a C needy team but he doesnt engage in trades much and certainly doesnt take risks. Bauer ORmaybe a closer like Street are probably the most I could get him to part with…either represent an upgrade over just playing the wire?

                    • My Thread Count Is High says:
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                      @My Thread Count Is High: And Im guessing this will prompt a new thread lol…but a guy in my league just dropped Nola. Hes had 2 really bad outings and another rough one prior to those. But I see you still have him rated in the top 30(obviously prior to tonights start).So my question is would you burn the #1 waiver slot on him? I drafted last and have yet to use it, so is he worth moving back to 12th in waiver order for? I can easily drop d’Arnaud, just wanted your take on him, since you’re the pitching guru round these parts.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      Too many threads! Haha. Ummm, it’s just in a shallow league, not knowing when he’s gonna play without a Minors spot makes Turner so hard to stash. Getting Street would def be worth it, and I don’t mind the gamble on Bauer either for d’Arnaud, luckily Posey is OK! I think I would try for 1 – trade for street 2 -add nola 3 – trade for bauer and if don’t hear back, just drop him. Hah i try to field em all man, I’m the Maddux of fielding!

  20. Prestige Worldwide says:
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    My league’s postseason ends when the regular season ends. You rank the likes of Sanchez, Pomeranz, Taillon and Urias, young and younger pitchers with innings limits several spots ahead of Steve Wright, the League leader in ERA the stronger hitting of the 2 leagues, pitching in front of the best offense in MLB.

    I believe the less stress Wright puts on his arm due to the knuckleball can only improve his durability ROS, whereas the younger, sexier names I mention have little shot at contributing to a fantasy baseball title outside of a middle innings role

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Prestige Worldwide: Sure, but it’s more about not being a full believer in Steven Wright than being suckered into younger arms. I know we have a big sample right now, but if I think Wright is going to regress, in my ROS ranks I have to weigh that. He walks too many guys for my taste, BABIP low, and he’s giving up only 4.5 HR/FB in FENWAY! Yeah I see regression coming

      • Prestige Worldwide says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        I suppose, but Fenway plays pretty close to neutral as far as RH HR, and it dramatically suppresses LH HR.

        As a BoSoxfan Ive watched every start Wright has made this season. Sure I forget to breathe when he grooves 83 mph 4-seamers to get back in a count, but the only reason there aren’t more punchouts, is because he induces so much weak contact. Hitters don’t get good swings on him, they don’t square him up, the fly outs stay in the park, and he goes deep into games.

        He’s likely to get dinged up at Yankee Stadium or Camden Yards, but I think you’d become a fan if you covered one his starts and watch him embarrass some of the best hitters in the game

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Prestige Worldwide: I don’t think it’s neutral for RH, but I guess I should look into it more before being certain of it :) Def true of lefties.

          It’s def awesome he can get weak contact in a real-world perspective, but in fantasy we need dem Ks! Although I think you’re saying that based on my BABIP comment.

          Hah you are def right, I haven’t watched much BoSox this year, I would LOVE to watch his starts though. Fell in love with Dickey the Cy year (who didn’t), so maybe my heart is ready to fall in love again…

  21. Christian Herman says:
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    Thoughts on Hammell & when he will come back to earth?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Christian Herman: Ummm, well I’ve always liked Hammel! I think he could be a 3.00 ERA pitcher, but that means he’d be like a 3.6 rest of way…

  22. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    Where would you throw de Leon assuming he gets called up soonish? And do you think he does, considering LA is going to baby lil Urias… or does someone else get the call first?

    Thanks JBizzle!

    • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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      @SheriffMcRawDawg: also, who do you think is up first, Daniel Norris or drew Hutchison and do you still like either of these guys in a keeper?

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @SheriffMcRawDawg: Ohhhh that’s a good call. I need to think about ranking him in, I really like him. Maybe 60ish? Getting hurt begining of the season I think hurt his contribution this year. Ummmm, I would guess Huchison but I def like the LAD guys better :)

  23. Utah Green Sox says:
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    Hey there,

    Loving the work you guys do and I’m a big fan of the podcast!
    Just wondering if it’s time to give up on Liriano (I ditched Corbin a few weeks back and haven’t looked back). I’d probably replace him for another bench bat (only have one at the moment).

    Team Overview:
    12 Team h2h holds obp
    Rotation:
    Syndergard
    Sale
    Ross
    Walker
    Liriano
    Shoemaker
    Bauer
    DeSclafani

    Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Utah Green Sox: Thanks so much, appreciate it! Yeahhhh, Liriano seems to be having that complete loss of control season that he’s been teetering at for a while. Sure yeah, I think in that format I would stream for bench ABs or chase a hold or two if you seem like your matchup will be close in those any given week

      • UtahGreenSox says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the advice!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @UtahGreenSox: Any time, thanks for dropping by!

  24. Mike says:
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    JB,

    Great Article! Would you give up Villar/T. Walker to get Sale?

    Get Dee Gordon back in a month.

    Current staff: Carrasco/Cole/Harvey/Walker/Hammel

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: Thanks for reading! And yup! I’d do that deal, I think Villar is gonna stay valuable, but with Cole hurt and a lot of question marks, you def could use an anchor for that staff.

  25. Dr. Sauce says:
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    Hey JB,
    Posted to Grey as well; looking for additional input and respect your feedback!
    ESPN 5X5, head to head, 6 man keeper. I am in first place in my league and my current outfield is Betts, Stanton, Cutch, Yellich, Mazara, Billy Hamilton (we start 5). Here are my queries;
    1. Given my current outfield build would you trade Baez, Profar and 1st round pick in next years draft for Spinger and Tanaka?
    2. Please rank the following ROS; Cutch, J-Up, Blackmon … I think I might be able to trade Cutch straight up for either Upton or Blackmon.
    3. Would you trade my Mazara for Archer?
    4. Given it’s a keeper league would you prefer Rizzo or Correa? I currently have Rizzo and Goldy (1b and Utility) and I have Story at SS. Correa would become my utility and insurance for Story.

    Appreciate any and all feedback. Thanks razzballers; u guys rock!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Dr. Sauce: Hah well I def try! 1 – Whoa, Springer?! So 6 keepers, and yeah you’re not getting anything close to as good as Springer with a 7th round (comparable) pick next yr and helps now… I def do this deal, unless you have a heavy keeper penalty associated with each player and Springer is expensive. 2. Blackmon, Cutch, Jup 3. Mehhhh probably not. 4. Whewwww that’s interesting. I’ll lean Rizzo, but even with a bad season so far from Correa, it’s close. We try man!

  26. Ryan741 says:
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    JB, need a quick trade opinion in a h2h points keeper league. It’s DeGrom/Pujols forJoe Ross/Miggy. I would be getting the Ross side. Do you have any concerns about a shut down for Ross at all? I have DeGrom as a 2nd round pick next year, Ross has 11th round value. Still fighting for a playoff spot though, so I feel like DeGrom helps more. But Pujols is about 1 ppg less than Cabrera in our league right now.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Ryan741: Yeah Ross def has shutdown concerns. I might be more apt to consider this playing for next year, but I think I would likely hold since you’re in the playoff hunt – deGrom in a Pts is just too valuable to me to do that one

      • Ryan741 says:
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        @JB Gilpin I’m definitely on the outside of the playoffs looking in, I need to move past 2 teams. But our last playoff spot is decided on total points, not record. I don’t know if I really need more keepers since I have Stras, Noah and Harvey with great keeper values, plus have Urias and Giolito I can possibly keep also. We only get 4 keepers. But my hitters are terrible this year, I kinda need a decent bat, which is why I’m torn.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Ryan741: Man, yeah that is a pickle, makes the trade a very 50/50 coin flip. Pujols a little banged up has me rethinking it, I think I might take it

  27. malamoney

    malamoney says:
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    I’m taking Greinke every day over Kluber…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @malamoney: Definitely fair, I mean I have them two apart, so not like I feel super strong about it. Kluber does have much better Ks (mainly in K rate if you play in innings cap league) and a better WHIP. Greinke better ERA. Sure you can argue Greinke’s numbers are skewed by the bad start… but I think it’s all really comparable ROS minus Kluber winning Ks.

  28. Rondo says:
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    For a H2H points league who is going to be more consistent from week to week – Quintana or Samardjiza?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Rondo: I’ll narrowly lean Samardzija, but it’s really close

  29. Mrs. Kimmel says:
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    Pax is throwing 97 mph heat. I see you have him pretty high. I like. He is looking really good, maybe even better than when he was better…if that makes sense lol

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mrs. Kimmel: Yeah, and hitting 99 and 100 sometimes! Hah yeah that makes sense to me! Only concern is he’s not throwing change-ups and curveballs much, and they’re getting hit hard. Makes me think the new arm slot might have lost those pitches

  30. I don't want to brag but i have irritable bowel syndrome says:
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    i’m thinking it was darvish pushing himself too much, didn’t you mention how he was several MPH faster than ever in his starts?

  31. My Thread Count Is High says:
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    Thanks for the advice above JB, definitely glad Posey is ok. So I gathered you still believe in Nola and he’d be worth cashing in my #1 waiver spot…thats likely what I’ll do, no action on the trade front for d’Arnaud unfortunately. Also on my OF do you like any of the following better than L.Martin and Choo going forward(Melvin Upton Jr., Maybin or Pillar)?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @My Thread Count Is High: Yup I was slow to believe at first, so I guess slow to unbelieve too haha. He’ll likely fall a tad, but he’s worth grabbing off the wire for free. Nahhhh I like your two OF guys right now

      • My Thread Count Is High says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks man, Gray has been solid but early walks just landed him in some trouble in NY. Hopefully he settles down, only guy you have rated higher on my wire is Gausman, who do you like better going forward, not like Gausman has been on fire lately either lol. Also what about Pax-man , he looked so good last night, they just left him in a little too long…and it cost me a QS.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @My Thread Count Is High: Starting with Paxton – horrible managing. Absolutely no reason he shoulda gone out for the 8th inning. Agree he still looked good. Gray seems to have left maybe due to injury, so I would take Gausman, but agree Gausman isn’t too exciting still haha

          • My Thread Count Is High says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Yeah read that this morning…dead arm, I did use my waiver claim on Nola, was surprised no one else put in a claim, but I guarantee if I hadnt someone would have beat me to him. He and the pitching coach seem to think its just mechanical, so hopefully the move pays off. Think Im gonna hold Gray for now, see how DeSclaf, Gausman, Moore and others do their next time out before I make a move there.Desclaf looked much better last time out, hopefully he can build on it.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @My Thread Count Is High: Yeah I’ve heard that he thinks he’s rushing his delivery. With the Phillies bad, maybe he’s pressing. I think he can work it out. Hah yeah of course when I start giving up on DeScla he pitches well arggghhh

              • My Thread Count Is High says:
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                @JB Gilpin: So you know I kinda have a less than stellar SS situation. I got a guy that is willing to move Lindor but names he threw out that he liked on my roster were Salazar and Shoemaker. Doubt he’d do Shoe straight up, will probably want Salazar. A) Would you do that trade with my roster? B) would you try to get more back than just Lindor if you did? Other guys he has and has mentioned are available are Devon Travis and Lance McCullers

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @My Thread Count Is High: Oh definitely! I always weigh O over pitching, I would take the Salazar deal and run with it if you can do it 1-for-1!

                  • My Thread Count Is High says:
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                    @JB Gilpin: What in the hell is wrong with Nola lol? Should I drop him for Gausman or DeSclafani?

                    • My Thread Count Is High says:
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                      @My Thread Count Is High: Forgot Pineda is out there too and has looked good this month. Not sure he still wants my Salazar for his Lindor but assuming he doesnt, would you keep Nola or add Pineda, Gausman, or Desclafani? And if he does would you dump A.Russell or Suarez? Im leaning Russell because he can also back up 2nd which gives me lineup flexibility, and then Id still be looking at the same 3 arms for a replacement for Salazars spot.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      Hah thread count is too high! Ugh yeah, tinkering with mechanics against the patient Giants spelled doom to me. Don’t know what’s going in other than him saying he’s rushing his delivery, but he took a nose dive in my ranks for sure. Ohhhh. I think I still have Nola ranked higher ROS, but I would ride matchups and the hot hand with that spot now. Looks like Pineda next is TEX, Gausman SEA, DeSclafani WAS. Might lean DeSclafani, tomo’s pitcher profile is on him :) I was impressed. And yeah lose Suarez if you can still swing the Lindor deal

  32. Chris says:
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    Hello JB,

    Would you trade Maeda + Rendon for Greinke? I have Jean Segura as my 2nd baseman.

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: Ummm, yeah I probably would in most formats!

  33. Nightpandas says:
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    Jb,

    Racking my brain on this one:

    Give Scherzer Villar
    Get Correa Allen Gausman

    It is a good trade for long term but what about this year?

    My staff besides Max is Harvey, Matz, Shark, Hill, MCCullers, Reed. Is it strong enough to compete? Currently on 2nd 15 teams keep 11

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Nightpandas: mehhh, yeah it’s a narrow win long term but I def don’t like it for redraft. I think I would stand pat in 2nd place

  34. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    JB! What do you think about Shark or Hammel ros?

    I’m in a roto league where I’m last in steals and not going much above mid pack in era/whip. Was offered my pick of those 2 guys plus Hamiilton. Thoughts?

    Thanks!

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Still gonna take Shark, better park and I trust he gets to 200+ innings more. That said, I think Villar steals more and plays in a premium position so I would do the Villar Rodon one I think

  35. Los locos says:
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    JB, you trust Pineda yet? The whole month he’s been on fire thinking dropping taillon for Pineda.

    10 team keeper league keep 3 pitchers

    I do own strauburg Kershaw Salazar

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Los locos: Nah, not quite at the trust level long-term, but do like him while hot… Yeah Taillon isn’t coming close to being a keeper so I’m totally good riding the hot hand, I’m good nabbing Pineda while throwing this well

      • Los locos says:
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        @JB Gilpin: thoughts of Kennedy and dropping odorrizzi?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Los locos: Hmmmm, I think I might roll dice on kennedy who I liked coming into the year, Odorizzi is pretty blah to me

Comments are closed.