Another week in the books means another installment of the Fantasy Baseball Dynasty rankings. This week we feature the players ranked 50-26 on our way to the top-ranked group.
Here is a look at the breakdown of this week’s grouping:
- 8 players between the ages of 30-34
- 9 players between the ages of 25-29
- 8 players between the ages of 20-24
- 11 infielders
- 6 starting pitchers
- 5 outfielders
- 2 infielders/outfielders
- 1 catcher
If you have been following this series, then you know I have favored younger players with upside over a more established player who may be slightly better right now but likely won’t be in two or three years. That is because I am building a dynasty team – one that will compete now and into the future.
However, there comes a point where I want the best players right now and then weigh how long they will be at their best. In a standard 12-team league, the group of players in today’s rankings are slotted in the third and fourth rounds of drafts (auction leagues are a completely different beast). However, if two players are close in talent, I will still take the younger one with more upside.
In this group of players, there are eight who are 30-years-old or greater and then nine more between the ages of 25-29. I’m not going to build my team around 33-year-old players such as Jose Altuve or Marcus Semien, but I sure do want them on my team in order to win now. I will load up on younger players later in a draft who will take the place of older players I take earlier.
Now on to the Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 50-26…
50-46
RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | POS | AGE |
---|---|---|---|---|
50 | CJ Abrams | Was | SS | 23 |
49 | Adley Rutschman | Bal | C | 26 |
48 | Oneil Cruz | Pit | SS | 25 |
47 | Spencer Steer | Cin | 1B/2B/3B/LF | 26 |
46 | Josh Lowe | TB | CF | 26 |
Is the Power Real?
CJ Abrams made it to the majors because of his speed, and in his first full season with the Nationals, it was in full display as he stole 47 bases. With the new rules in MLB concerning throws over to first, I fully expect Abrams to steal just as many if not more bases going forward. The biggest question is will the 18 homers he hit last season be sustainable. When you look at his StatCast numbers, his Avg. EV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit% were way below average while his Whiff% and K% ranked in the 67th percentile. I don’t think he will become a consistent 20-homer player, but he will likely be a 15-to-18 homer player to go with his elite speed.
Big Time Bat at Catcher
With the spotlight always on him due to where he was drafted, Adley Rutschman helped carry Baltimore last season. He hit 20 homers and drove in 80 while slashing .277/.374/.435. Fantasy owners shy away from grabbing catchers early, but Rutschman played in 154 games last year and will likely come close to playing that much for the next several years. There is a lot of value in that. It is interesting to note that for the last two years his Avg. EV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit% have hovered in the 30th-39th percentile. If he figures out how to barrel the ball more often, his power numbers will jump.
Bust-Out Season is Here
Oneil Cruz missed most of last season thanks to an injury he suffered during a play at home plate nine games into the season. But in 87 games in 2022, Cruz slugged 17 homers, drove in 54 runs, and stole 10 bases while slugging .450. His 162-game average is 31 homers, 101 RBI, and 21 steals with a .449 SLG. Cruz’s average EV in 2022 was in the 91st percentile and Barrel% ranked in the 96th percentile while his sprint speed ranked in the 98th percentile. Cruz’s power/speed combo is off the charts.
1B? 2B? 3B? LF? Who Cares?
All Spencer Steer did this year was slash .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers, 86 RBI, and 15 steals. Playing in a hitter’s park, those power numbers are likely to only increase. Is he a first baseman (53 games started), second baseman (13 games started), third baseman (42 games started) or left fielder (36 games started)? The Reds plan to play him more in left field this season, but he will likely see time all over the field once again. Steer doesn’t have one tool that stands out, but he does everything well, and there is a lot of value in that. He may not reach 30 homers as he doesn’t rely on raw power to drive the ball, but he should be able to replicate the stats he put up last year for years to come.
A Ray of Sunshine
Josh Lowe was given a 52-game audition by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2022 and it did not go very well as he slashed .221/.284/.343 with two homers, 13 RBI, and three steals. But the real Lowe showed up in 2023. In 135 games, Lowe hit 20 homers with 83 RBI and 32 steals (in 35 attempts) while slashing .292/.335/.500. His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, and Sweet-SPot% all ranked in the 69th percentile or higher last year. He has above average power and great speed to be a 30-30 threat going forward.
45-41
RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | POS | AGE |
---|---|---|---|---|
45 | Zac Gallen | Ari | SP | 28 |
44 | Matt McLain | Cin | 2B/SS | 24 |
43 | Luis Castillo | Sea | SP | 31 |
42 | Jordan Walker | Stl | LF/RF | 21 |
41 | Nolan Jones | Col | 1B/LF/RF | 25 |
Flying Under the Radar
Zac Gallen seems to get overlooked by a lot of fantasy players, despite owning a career ERA of 3.21 and WHIP of 1.11 and finishing in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting the last two seasons. Perhaps that is due to the fact that he doesn’t overpower hitters with a blazing fastball, as his fastball velocity is average at best. But he mixes his pitches well and has great command of those pitches, allowing him to strike out more than a hitter per inning (9.8 K/9 career mark) and not walk hitters. For his career, he walks fewer than three hitters per game and his BB% ranked in the 88th percentile last year.
One of Many Up-And-Coming Reds
Matt McLain should not have snuck up on anyone last season, especially dynasty players. Twice drafted in the first round (by Arizona in 2018 and then Cincinnati in 2021), McLain has succeeded on every level he has played. As a rookie last season, McLain hit 16 homers, drove in 50 runs, and stole 14 bases while slashing .290/.357/.507 in 89 games. The average may not continue to be that high as he was a career .266 hitter in the minors and .280 hitter at UCLA. But he has maintained a solid OBP during his college and minor league and he has always shown the ability to drive the ball out of the park to go along with his speed.
This Mariner Can Sail
Luis Castillo had yet another excellent season in 2023 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.10 WHIP to go along with 10.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Those results shouldn’t be a surprise. Over the last three years, he has a 3.47 ERA and 1.19 WHIP to go with a 9.7 K/9 rate. Castillo can hurt himself with walks as his career BB/9 rate is 3.1. But over the last two seasons that rate has come down as he walked 2.7 batters per nine in 2022 and then that 2.6 rate last year. His 7.0% BB% ranked in the 72nd percentile. As he ages, Castillo has learned to command his pitches while still producing high strikeout numbers – a perfect combination to possess.
Only A Matter of Time
Jordan Walker may not hit 40 homers this season, but it is only a matter of time before the youngster becomes a consistent offensive force at the plate. He has massive power and showed it off a bit last year, hitting 16 homers and driving in 51 runs in 420 at-bats. He also slashed .272/.311/.476. He still has a lot of improvement to go in his game, like reducing his strikeout and chase rate. But there is no denying his talent, and the results will soon show up, whether it is this year or starting in 2025.
Nice Trade for the Rockies
In November of 2022, the Rockies and Guardians made a trade that not many people took notice of as Colorado sent Juan Brito to Cleveland for Nolan Jones. While Brito got a taste of the big leagues last season, Nolan burst onto the scene for the Rockies. He could be at first base in 2024, but he will likely, and should, patrol the outfield for Colorado. No matter where he plays, you want him in your lineup. Jones has power (20 homers in 367 ABs), speed (20 steals), and can hit (.297/.389/.542). His xwOBA, xSLG, Barrell%, and BB% were in the 84th percentile or higher this year.
40-36
RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | POS | AGE |
---|---|---|---|---|
40 | Royce Lewis | Min | 3B | 24 |
39 | Manny Machado | SD | 3B | 31 |
38 | Marcus Semien | Tex | 2B | 33 |
37 | Jose Altuve | Hou | 2B | 33 |
36 | Mike Trout | LAA | CF | 32 |
The Youngster
The more I looked at Royce Lewis, the more I kept moving him up my rankings. Is this ranking too aggressive? I don’t think so. In less than half a season last year Lewis hit 15 homers, drove in 52 runs, and slashed .309/.372/.548 and had a 150 OPS+. His 162-game average is 95 runs scored, 39 homers, 132 RBI, 14 steals, and a .307/.364/.549 slash line. Will he keep that kind of production up? Maybe not at that level, but he has hit on every level in the minors. The only thing that has slowed him down is one injury after the other. If you are worried that he is injury-prone, then move him down this list. Otherwise, take him and be happy he is on your team.
Aging Gracefully
Manny Machado has been playing in the majors since 2012, so it is hard to imagine that he will only be 31 on Opening Day next season. Machado was simply born to hit. Since 2015 the fewest homers he has hit in a full season is 28 (2021) and the fewest RBI total is 86 (2015). This past season he hit 30 homers and drove in 91 in 138 games for the Padres. The only worry is a slash line that fell to .258/.319/.462, well below his career line of .279/.339/.490. Is it a one-year blip or a glimpse of what is to come? I think it is more of a blip, and even if that becomes his new normal slash line, I don’t see the power numbers suddenly diminishing.
Texas Two Step
If you look at just the raw numbers, Marcus Semien had a much better year than Jose Altuve in 2023. Semien hit 29 homers and drove in 100 runs while stealing 14 bases and slashing .276/.348/.478. Meanwhile, Semien’s Avg. EV, Barrel% and Hard-Hit% ranked in the 32nd, 30th and 26th percentiles, his Sweet-Spot%, Chase%, Whiff% and K% all ranked in the 84th percentile or higher.
Altuve had 17 homers and 51 RBI. But those numbers came in only 90 games. Over 162 games that is 31 homers and 92 RBI. He slashed .311/.393/.522 and had an OPS+ of 151 compared to Semien’s 122. Among second basemen, Altuve ranked second in batting average, fourth in OBP and third in SLG. If there is one thing to be concerned about is the fact that his Whiff% and K% ranked in the 84th and 80th percentile as he hunts for certain pitches to hit and looks foolish at times when he guesses wrong.
In the end, both players are great and both show no signs of slowing down.
Still Really Good, Just Not Great
When healthy, Mike Trout is one of the top five best players in baseball. There isn’t anything Trout can’t do on the field. If you look at his 2023 percentile rankings, he is ranked in the 84th percentile or higher in nearly every category except Whiff % and K %. Trout’s 162-game average is 120 runs scored, 40 homers, 102 RBI, 22 steals, and a .301/.412/.582 slash line. But the problem is Trout is never on the field for 162 games. He can barely reach 120 games due to the injuries he suffers every year. And entering his age 32 season, he isn’t getting younger, so will he suddenly stop getting hurt every year? If you think Trout can play 140 games, then move him into the top 20. But I simply can’t ignore his injury history.
35-31
RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | POS | AGE |
---|---|---|---|---|
35 | Evan Carter | Tex | LF | 21 |
34 | Randy Arozarena | TB | LF | 29 |
33 | Eury Perez | Mia | SP | 20 |
32 | Grayson Rodriguez | Bal | SP | 24 |
31 | Francisco Lindor | NYM | SS | 30 |
Quickly Making a Name for Himself
Evan Carter doesn’t have a lot of major league experience, appearing in 23 regular season games before producing throughout the postseason to help the Rangers win the World Series. Carter joined the team after Adolis Garcia injured his knee early in September. Once Carter was in the lineup, the Rangers couldn’t take him out. In 62 at-bats, he slashed .306/.413/.645 with five home runs, 12 RBI, and three steals. In the postseason, Carter performed like a seasoned veteran, slashing .300/.417/.500 with one home run, six RBI, and three steals in 17 games. He’s not proven, but he is one of the best up-and-coming players in the game.
Another Ray of Sunshine
If Randy Arozarena didn’t play for Tampa Bay, he would be a superstar. Arozarena had another good year as he does it all for the Rays. He hits for power (23 homers), drives in runs (83 RBI), steals bases (22 steals), scores runs (95), and won’t hurt you at the plate (.254/.364/.425). Over the last three years, he has played in 445 of Tampa Bay’s 486 games and his average season during that timespan is 21 homers, 80 RBI, and 25 steals with a .264/.349/.443 slash line. That is solid and consistent production.
Ace in the Making
If you want to see what a future ace looks like, watch Eury Perez pitch. Despite being only 20 years old on Opening Day, Perez showed why he was one of the game’s top prospects in the minors before joining the Marlins. In 19 starts covering 91.1 innings, he struck out 108 while allowing only 72 hits and 31 walks. That led to a 10.6 K/9 rate, a 3.15 ERA, and a 1.128 WHIP with an ERA+ of 142. Turning 21 in April, Perez already is more of a pitcher than just a thrower, despite possessing a fastball that ranks in the 94th percentile. I am usually shy about taking young pitchers, but Perez is not your typical young pitcher and he will only get better the more he learns on the mound.
What a Turnaround
Grayson Rodriguez was horrible for Baltimore in his first 10 starts. He had a 7.35 ERA and 1.744 WHIP (much like Bradish in 2022). Opposing batters slashed .307/.374/.582 with 13 home runs allowed over 45.1 innings of work. Those numbers sent Rodriguez back to the minors to allow him to completely reboot his season. And he did just that. Recalled in July, Rodriguez was a completely different pitcher over his final 13 starts. He had a 2.58 ERA and 1.097 WHIP. In 76.2 innings, he allowed only three homers and held hitters to a .227/.284/.306 slash line. Yes, his strikeout rate dropped from 11.1 K/9 during those first 10 starts to 8.6, but his walk rate also fell from 4.2 to 2.5 BB/9. In this case, I will take the second version of Rodriguez any day compared to the first version.
Older, but Still Great
Francisco Lindor is getting older, but that shouldn’t prevent him from being one of the best players at his position. In 2023 he ranked third among shortstops (and second if you ignore Mookie Betts) with 31 homers while his 98 RBI trailed only Betts’ 107. And Lindor still has his speed as he stole 31 bases. His average wasn’t great at .254, but he still had a .336 OBP and a very nice .470 SLG, his highest since he slugged .518 in 2019. He struggled during his first season in New York. But since then, he has resembled the player he was in Cleveland, hitting 57 home runs and driving in 205 runs the last two seasons. Will he still be this good in five years? Probably not. But for the next three years, he is still a top dynasty shortstop.
30-26
RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | POS | AGE |
---|---|---|---|---|
30 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | 29 |
29 | Elly De La Cruz | Cin | SS/3B | 22 |
28 | Jose Ramirez | Cel | 3B | 31 |
27 | Corbin Burnes | Bal | SP | 29 |
26 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | SP | 33 |
Power Bat
Pete Alonso does one thing very, very well: he hits lots of home runs. He hit 53 his rookie season in 2019, then 37 in 2021, 40 in 2022, and 46 this past year. His RBI totals (excluding 2020) have been 120, 94, 131 and 118. Who wouldn’t want those numbers on their team? The only knock is a slash line of .217/.318/.504 this past season. A minor ding against an otherwise great producer at the plate. I’ll take a lower batting average since he has a career .342 OBP and .528 SLG. And that .217 average and .318 OBP could be blips and not a trend going forward.
Must Watch Player
If I flip over to a Reds game on the TV and see Elly De La Cruz at the plate, I am going to stop and watch that at-bat. De La Cruz appeared in only 98 games last season, but every at-bat was an event because you don’t want to miss what he can do. In 427 plate appearances, he hit 13 homers, drove in 44 runs, and stole 35 bases. Over the course of 162 games, that is 21 homers, 73 RBI, and 58 steals. De La Cruz has elite sprint speed, ranking in the 100th percentile with an average of 30.5 mph. De La Cruz could stand to walk a little more and strike out a little less, but only if it doesn’t affect the rest of this game.
2nd Best Third Baseman
Jose Ramirez just keeps producing for Cleveland and there is no reason to think he will suddenly forget how to hit. He hit 24 homers and had 80 RBI last year while slugging .475. Among third basemen, those numbers ranked 10th, 13th, and ninth. Ramirez also slashed .282/.356/.831 while swiping 28 bags, a stat that really separates him from most other third basemen. While his home runs have gone down in each of the last three seasons, his three-season average is 155 games, 30 homers, 103 RBI, and 25 steals with a .279/.355/.508 slash line.
Landing in Baltimore
Corbin Burnes has been a standout pitcher for the Brewers for years, but now he will be playing in Baltimore. While he will be facing better teams in the AL East compared to the NL Central, that shouldn’t affect him at all. Burnes has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting in each of the last four seasons and won the award in 2021. The owner of a career 3.26 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, Burnes has been even better over the last three seasons with a 2.94 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He has averaged 10.8 K/9 during that stretch and only 2.4 BB/9. Since 2021, his K% has ranked in the 97th, 89th, and 97th percentile and his BB% has ranked in the 92nd, 72nd, and 92nd percentile. Simply put, Burnes is a stud.
The Cole Train
Garrit Cole looks like he is going to defy the aging process. The Yankees right-hander is coming off winning the Cy Young award after posting a 2.63 ERA, 0.981 WHIP, and 165 ERA+. He has finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting in each of the last six years and in the top 5 five times during that span and since 2018 has struck out 222 or more hitters in every full season. About the only thing to quibble over is the fact his K/9 rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons, from 12.1 in 2021 to 11.5 and then 9.6 last year. At some point, he will slow down and just be a very good pitcher. But that doesn’t look to be happening anytime soon.
Come Back Next Week
Thanks for reading and come back again next week for Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 25-1.
If you need to catch up, here are the previous rankings:
- Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 300-201
- Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 200-176
- Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 175-151
- Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 150-126
- Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 125-101
- Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 100-76
- Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 75-51