2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings, 125-101

Welcome back to the fifth installment of the Fantasy Baseball Dynasty rankings. As we count down toward the top group, we first hit the players ranked 125-101.

Here is a look at the breakdown of this week’s grouping:

7 players between the ages of 30-34
13 players between the ages of 25-29
5 players between the ages of 20-24
11 starting pitchers
7 outfielders
4 infielders
1 outfielder/infielder
1 catcher

The breakdown for the players when it comes to their age should not be surprising at all. As we get closer to the top-ranked players, the older players are players who are fading away and being replaced by players who will be the building blocks of your team. These are the players you will have for five years or more – not those who fill a void in your team.

The number of pitchers in this grouping makes sense as I build my teams around offense and go after the top hitters before going for the top pitchers. You can’t ignore them, but there always seem to be pitchers who come out of nowhere and become studs compared to hitters. Usually, if you can hit, you hit in the minors and carry it over to the majors. But for many pitchers, the early struggles you see in the minors or early stages of their MLB career aren’t always a good indicator of what their career will become.

Now on to the Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 125-101…

125-121

*Ages as of April 1, 2024

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AGE
125	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	CF	31
124	Sal Frelick	MIL	CF/RF	23
123	Ian Happ	ChC	LF	29
122	Ryan Mountcastle	Bal	1B	27
121	James Outman	LAD	CF	26

The Outfielders – Both Young and Old

Brandon Nimmo is the old man in this group, but that doesn’t mean his skills are diminished. He is coming off a 2023 season in which he slashed .274/.363/.466 with 24 homers and 68 RBI. That is remarkably close to what he did in 2022 (.274/.367/.433, 16-64) and on par with his career numbers. His Avg. EV ranked in the 88th percentile and his Hard-Hit% ranked in the 84th percentile.

Sal Frelick started quickly for Milwaukee when recalled from the minors in July but leveled off during August and September to finish the season with three homers, 24 RBI, and seven steals in 57 games with a .246/.341/.351 slash line. While the numbers don’t look great, he had a 12.6% walk rate with a low 16.6% strikeout rate. He has enough power to reach 15 to 20 homers and certainly enough speed to easily reach 30 steals if given regular playing time.

I don’t think Ian Happ has reached his ceiling yet. His numbers were better than average last season (21 homers, 84 RBI last season with 14 steals, and a .248/.360/.431 slash line) and his career 162-game average is 24 homers, 76 RBI with a .249/.343/.454 slash line. But three times during his career he has slugged higher than .500 and his career OPS+ is 113. In August and September of last season, Happ slugged .493 with 11 homers, 37 RBI, and five steals in 55 games. That is a 32 homer, 109 RBI 162-game pace, and I think Happ can be closer to that kind of player.

James Outman had a nice rookie season for the Dodgers. While he hit only .248, he had a .353 OBP to go with a .437 slugging percentage, 23 homers, 70 RBI, and 16 steals to finish third in the NL ROY voting. He struck out too much (31.9% K rate), but his Chase% ranked in the 73rd percentile and he had a 12.0% walk rate, ranking in the 86th percentile. At 25 he was a little old for a rookie last year, but there is some nice upside to his game.

Corner Infielder with Upside

Ryan Mountcastle of the Orioles was limited to 115 games last season, depressing his power numbers to 18 homers and 68 RBI. But Mountcastle hits the ball hard as he ranked in the 80th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg. EV, and Barrel% and in the 70th percentile in Hard-Hit% and Sweet-Spot%. The deep left field dimensions at Camden Yards will likely prevent Mountcastle from reaching the 33 dingers he hit in 2021, but he’s a solid 25-85 hitter who is entering the prime of his career.

120-116

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AGE
120	Luis Arraez	Mia	1B/2B/3B	26
119	Kodai Senga	NYM	SP	31
118	Willson Contreras	Stl	C	31
117	Tanner Bibee	Cle	SP	25
116	Hunter Greene	Cin	SP	24

Average is a Good, Really!

Luis Arraez of the Marlins does one thing very, very well – he hits for average. He only hit 10 home runs this past season, but that was a career high. The important line concerning Arraez is a slash of .354/.393/.469. This came after slashing .316/.375/.420 in 2022 for the Twins. For his career, he is a .326 hitter with a .379 OBP. Batting average is no longer used in many leagues, but OBP is and thanks to his high average, Arraez will continue to help your team’s OBP.

Worth the Hype

Kodai Senga came to the United States from Japan with a lot of hype, and for good reason, if you look at his career across the Pacific. But as is always the case with players coming from Japan or Korea to the U.S., there was some skepticism about Senga. There shouldn’t been any. All he did was go 12-7 for a Mets team that tanked with a 2.98 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He finished the year with a K/9 rate of 10.9 and his strikeout percentage ranked in the 87th percentile. The only reason he isn’t ranked higher is because he is 31. For the next three years, that is no big deal. But if you are building a dynasty team, then there are younger pitchers I’d rather have.

Aging but still Good

Willson Contreras is one of the better hitting catchers in the game. Last season he hit 20 homers while slashing .264/.358/.467 for the St. Louis Cardinals. He ranked in the 79th percentile in Barrel% and in the 93rd percentile in xwOBA and was between the 81st and 86th percentile in xBA, xSLG, Avg. EV and Hard-Hit%. But like Senga, Contreras is 31 this season and catchers often don’t age well. So while he should be solid at the plate this year and next season, after that who knows what to expect.

Solid Rookie Season

If you look at Tanner Bibee’s StatCast numbers, nothing really jumps out as being overwhelming. He ranks from the 52nd to 79th percentile in most pitching categories. But there is one area where he was outstanding – run value. In overall Pitching Run Value, he ranked in the 97th percentile. He ranked in the 86th percentile in Fastball Run Value, 88th in Breaking Run Value, and 89th in Offspead Run Value. He strikes out nearly a batter per inning and walks only 2.9 batters per nine. And this shouldn’t be a one-time thing. His career ERA in the minors was 2.13 with a 0.97 WHIP in 148 innings.

Looking at His Upside

Hunter Greene has shown flashes of brilliance on the mound. But he has also been very frustrating. Greene was limited to 22 starts this past season and finished 4-7 with a 4.82 ERA. But he has the ability to be so much better. His fastball velo ranks in the 97th percentile and his K% ranks in the 91st percentile, leading to a 12.2 K/9 rate in 2023. His downfall right now is his lack of command as he walked 3.9 batters per nine. If he can ever command the arsenal of pitches he has, he can be a dominant pitcher.

115-111

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AGE
115	Joe Musgrove	SD	SP	31
114	Andres Gimenez	Cle	2B	25
113	TJ Friedl	Cin	CF	28
112	Chas McCormick	Hou	LF/CF/RF	28
111	Jordan Westburg	Bal	2B/3B	25

Older but still Good

Joe Musgove has been one of the better pitchers in baseball since joining the San Diego Padres. In three seasons he has gone 31-19 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His walk rate has decreased each season, going from 2.7 to 1.9 last season. But Musgrove has also seen his strikeout percentage go from 10.1 to 9.1 to 9.0 last year, a season in which he was limited to 97 innings. Musgrove should come back strong this season, but at 31, he is getting closer to the end of his career than the start of it. That said, he isn’t going to drop off the pitching cliff in the next three years and will put up solid to above numbers.

Undervalued Second Baseman

There are a lot of players with long-term potential at second base, and one of those players is Andres Gimenez. In 2022, his first full season in the majors, Gimenez slashed .297/.371/.466 with 17 homers, 69 RBI and 20 steals. This past season his slash line of .251/.314/.399 didn’t match what he did in 2022. However, he still hit 15 homers and drove in 62 runs with 30 steals. That is probably his floor – and I’ll take that. But I think there is still room for more power.

One of Many Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have a lot of players who are making fantasy owners drool. But one player who shouldn’t be overlooked is TJ Friedl. Given a chance to be the main center fielder in ’23, Friedl slashed .279/.352/.467 with 73 runs scored, 18 home runs, 66 RBI and 27 steals. He doesn’t wow anyone with his EV, Barrel% or Hard-Hit%, but he doesn’t strike out much and he is an above average baserunner, allowing him to rack up the steals and take the extra base to get into scoring position.

Surprising Season

Chas McCormick of the Astros is not who you immediately think of when discussing top outfielders. One reason for that is because former manager Dusty Baker refused to put him into the lineup every day last season, limiting his playing time and numbers. But when McCormick was in the lineup, he was a top-hitting outfielder, slashing .273/.353/.489 with 22 home runs, 70 RBI, and 19 steals. Eligible at all three outfield spots, McCormick is expected to get most of his time in left field this season. Among left fielders, he ranked in the top 15 in homers (10th), RBI (14th), SB (9th), AVG (15th), OBP (15th) and SLG (10th). His .842 OPS ranked 8th as did his 130 OPS+. He has to prove 2023 wasn’t a fluke, but I don’t think it was.

One of My Favorites

I might have an unhealthy crush on Jordan Westburg as I have traded for him in two leagues to add to the teams I already have him on. Maybe I have blinders on, but I like what he brings to the game. He has the power to deliver 20 or more home runs and he should be able to reach 20 steals. He will just need to make a few adjustments to get some more lift on the ball. Even if that doesn’t lead to a lot of homers to left field in Baltimore, it will on the road and a host of doubles in home games to boost his slugging percentage.

110-106

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AGE
110	Braxton Garrett	Mia	SP	26
109	Freddy Peralta	Mil	SP	27
108	Zach Eflin	TB	SP	29
107	Walker Buehler	LAD	SP	29
106	Aaron Nola	Phi	SP	30

Slow and Steady Progress

Braxton Garrett is the poster boy of young pitchers who need time to figure things out on the major league level. After making two starts in 2020, Garrett made seven starts in 2021. In a combined 41.2 innings those two seasons, he allowed 50 hits and 25 walks for a whopping 1.80 ERA to go with a hefty 5.18 ERA. But over the last two seasons, Garrett has become a solid pitcher who has not reached his ceiling yet. He had a 3.58 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 88 innings of work in 2022 and last year, in 159.02 innings, he had a 3.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Over the last two seasons, his walk rate has gone from 6.4% to 4.4% while posting strikeout rates of 24.1% and 23.7%. He’s just entering his prime and I expect he will only get better.

Overlooked Pitcher

Last week I talked about how I have been overlooking Bailey Ober of the Twins. This week the Overlooked Pitcher of the Week is Freddy Peralta of the Brewers. He didn’t have a great ERA last year at 3.86, especially compared to the two previous seasons when it was 2.81 and 3.58. But what makes Peralta a great pitcher to have on your staff is the great WHIP and strikeout rate he has. His career WHIP is 1.12 and his career K/9 rate is 11.6. Over the last three seasons that K/9 rate is 11.4. His xERA and xBA were in the 82nd and 83rd percentile last year while his Whiff% and K% both ranked in the 92nd percentile.

Another Rays Success Story

If you have a pitcher on your staff and he is traded to or signs with Tampa Bay, you should be happy. For the entirety of his career in Philadelphia, Zach Eflin was just an average pitcher. He has a career ERA of 4.28 with a 1.28 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 rate, 2.0 BB/9 rate, and a 4.01 K/BB rate. Then comes 2023 and Eflin winds up in Tampa Bay. All he did was go 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His K/9 rate jumped to 9.4 while the BB/9 rate fell to 1.2 and his K/BB rate was a fantastic 7.75.

Buehler. Buehler.

Walker Buehler was outstanding for the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2018 through 2021. During that span, he never posted an ERA higher than 3.44 and his worst WHIP was 1.04. In 2021 he had a career-best season, going 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. In 207.6 innings over 33 starts, he struck out 212 batters. But in June of 2022, he underwent Tommy John surgery and he missed all of last season. But considering the success rate of the procedure today, there is no reason to think Buehler won’t be able to return to form.

Frustratingly Good

I have a love-hate relationship with Aaron Nola. That is because when he is on, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. But when he is off, he can blow up your ERA for the week. Last season he had a 4.46 ERA – not a great number for a pitcher who is the ace of the Phillies staff. Nola allowed four earned runs or more in 15 of his 32 starts and four times topped five or more earned runs. Then there is the good side of Nola. Over the last three years, he has a 10.3 K/9 rate and had a 25.5% strikeout rate last year while ranking in the 87th percentile in walk rate. If you can survive his bad periods, Nola is a solid pitcher to have.

105-101

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AGE
105	Riley Greene	Det	CF	23
104	Christopher Morel	ChC	2B/CF	24
103	Edouard Julien	Min	2B	24
102	Framber Valdez	Hou	SP	30
101	Blake Snell	FA	SP	31

Breakout Candidate

I think Riley Greene is primed to be one of the players who is ranked much higher this time next year. His numbers weren’t overly eye-popping this past season as he slashed .288/.349/.447 with 11 homers, 37 RBI, and seven steals in 99 games. But he ranked in the 74th percentile or greater in the following categories: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg. EV, Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, and Sweet-Spot%.

Greene is recovering from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing right elbow, and the injury cost him all of September. But he supposedly should be good to go on Opening Day and he will hit his stride in 2024.

Fielding? Who Needs Fielding?

Christopher Morel can play a number of positions in the field, but he can’t play any of them very well. Because of that, he will likely receive the majority of at-bats at DH for the Cubs. But that is fine with me as long as he maintains eligibility at a few positions for future seasons. In 107 games and 388 at-bats last year, he hit 26 homers and drove in 70 runs while slashing .247/.313/.508. He ranked in the 85th percentile in xSLG (.489) and ranked 91st or better in Avg. EV (92.1 mph), Barrel% (15.9), and Hard-Hit% (50.0). In other words, he hits the ball hard and he can hit it far.

The Canadian Twinkie

Depending on which stats you look at, Edouard Julien is either being overrated here or underrated. Average them out and he lands at No. 103 for me. In his rookie season last year, Julien had a 31.4% strikeout rate and batted .263. But in his 338 at-bats, he hit 16 homers and drove in 37 runs while posting a 15.7 walk rate, leading to a .381 OBP. Couple that with his .459 SLG, and he had a very nice .839 OPS. And while he had only three steals with the Twins, he showed his ability to swipe bases in the minors. It would not be surprising to see him get close to 25 homers and 10 steals this season to go with a very nice OBP.

Frustrating Finish

Framber Valdez had a great 2022 season, going 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.157 WHIP and a 135 ERA+. Additionally, he had a 8.7 K/9 rate and 3.0 BB/9 rate. Last season, depending on which numbers you go by, he was nearly as good as last year if not a little better. He had a higher ERA at 3.45 but a better WHIP thanks to a 2.6 BB/9 rate. His ERA+ was 122, so not a huge drop off and his K/9 rate improved to 9.1. He even threw a no-hitter against Cleveland. But after the no-no, his final 10 starts of the season were a mix of good and bad as he allowed six earned runs or more in three of them and also had four or more walks in three starts while seeing his K/9 rate drop to 7.04. I’m chalking it up to just a really bad stretch and consider him one of the better pitchers in the game.

Five Innings of Greatness

If for some reason you demand that your starting pitchers give you six or more innings per start, then Blake Snell is not the pitcher for you. For his career, he averages just over five innings per start, with that number being helped by his 180 innings of work last season in 32 starts. If you also want a pitcher who doesn’t walk hitters, then Snell, again, is not the pitcher for you. He has a career BB/9 rate of 4.1, including a 5.0 rate last season. But if you want a pitcher who can dominate otherwise, then Snell is the man for you.

But Snell is also the same pitcher who has won two Cy Young Awards, winning his second in 2023 after going 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.189 ERA thanks to allowing only 5.8 H/9 to offset his walk rate. He also struck out 11.9 hitters per nine and his career K/9 rate is 11.1. But like several other pitchers in this grouping, age prevents me from ranking Snell higher.

Come Back Next Week

Thanks for reading and come back again next week for Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 100-76.

If you need to catch up, here are the previous rankings: